Improved Anthropogenic Mercury Emission Inventories for China from 1980 to 2020: Toward More Accurate Effectiveness Evaluation for the Minamata Convention

Louis VL. Unexpected anthropogenic emission decreases explain recent atmospheric mercury concentration declines

Anthropogenic activities emit ~2,000 Mg y-1 of the toxic pollutant mercury (Hg) into the atmosphere, leading to long-range transport and deposition to remote ecosystems. Global anthropogenic emission inventories report increases in Northern Hemispheric (NH) Hg emissions during the last three decades, in contradiction with the observed decline in atmospheric Hg concentrations at NH measurement stations. Many factors can obscure the link between anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric Hg concentrations, including trends in the reemissions of previously released anthropogenic ("legacy") Hg, atmospheric sink variability, and spatial heterogeneity of monitoring data. Here, we assess the observed trends in gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0) in the NH and apply biogeochemical box modeling and chemical transport modeling to understand the trend drivers. Using linear mixed effects modeling of observational data from 51 stations, we find negative Hg0 trends in most NH regions, with an overall trend for 2005 to 2020 of -0.011 ± 0.006 ng m-3 y-1 (±2 SD). In contrast to existing emission inventories, our modeling analysis suggests that annual NH anthropogenic emissions must have declined by at least 140 Mg between the years 2005 and 2020 to be consistent with observed trends. Faster declines in 95th percentile Hg0 values than median values in Europe, North America, and East Asian measurement stations corroborate that the likely cause is a decline in nearby anthropogenic emissions rather than background legacy reemissions. Our results are relevant for evaluating the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury, demonstrating that existing emission inventories are incompatible with the observed Hg0 declines.

Atmospheric Mercury Concentrations and Isotopic Compositions Impacted by Typical Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Sources

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) and cement plants (CPs) are important anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emission sources. Mercury speciation profiles in flue gas are different among these sources, leading to significant variations in local atmospheric Hg deposition. To quantify the impacts of Hg emissions from CFPPs and CPs on local-scale atmospheric Hg deposition, this study determined concentrations and isotopes of ambient gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), particulate-bound mercury (PBM), and precipitation total Hg (THg) at multiple locations with different distances away from a CFPP and a CP. Higher concentrations of GEM and precipitation THg in the CFPP area in summer were caused by higher Hg emission from the CFPP, resulting from higher electricity demand. Higher concentrations of GEM, PBM, and precipitation THg in the CP area in winter compared to those in summer were related to the higher output of cement. Atmospheric Hg concentration peaked near the CFPP and CP and decreased with distance from the plants. Elevated GEM concentration in the CFPP area was due to flue gas Hg0 emissions, and high PBM and precipitation Hg concentrations in the CP area were attributed to divalent Hg emissions. It was estimated that Hg emissions from the CFPP contributed 58.3 ± 20.9 and 52.3 ± 25.9% to local GEM and PBM, respectively, and those from the CP contributed 47.0 ± 16.7 and 60.0 ± 25.9% to local GEM and PBM, respectively. This study demonstrates that speciated Hg from anthropogenic emissions posed distinct impacts on the local atmospheric Hg cycle, indicating that Hg speciation profiles from these sources should be considered for evaluating the effectiveness of emission reduction policies. This study also highlights the Hg isotope as a useful tool for monitoring environmental Hg emissions.

Combating air pollution significantly reduced air mercury concentrations in China

In the past decade, China has motivated proactive emission control measures that have successfully reduced emissions of many air pollutants. For atmospheric mercury, which is a globally transported neurotoxin, much less is known about the long-term changes in its concentrations and anthropogenic emissions in China. In this study, over a decade of continuous observations at four Chinese sites show that gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations continuously increased until the early 2010s, followed by significant declines at rates of 1.8%-6.1% yr-1 until 2022. The GEM decline from 2013 to 2022 (by 38.6% ± 12.7%) coincided with the decreasing concentrations of criteria air pollutants in China and were larger than those observed elsewhere in the northern hemisphere (5.7%-14.2%). The co-benefits of emission control measures contributed to the reduced anthropogenic Hg emissions and led to the GEM decline in China. We estimated that anthropogenic GEM emissions in China were reduced by 38%-50% (116-151 tons) from 2013 to 2022 using the machine-learning and relationship models.

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic emissions and aquatic environmental impacts on sedimentary mercury variations in a typical urban river

In urban and industrial regions, sedimentary mercury (Hg) serves as the crucial indicator for Hg pollution, posing potential risks to ecology and human health. The physicochemical processes of Hg in aquatic environments are influenced by various factors such as anthropogenic emissions and aquatic environmental impacts, making it challenging to quantify the drivers of total mercury (THg) variations. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations, quantified driving factors, and assessed accumulation risks of sedimentary THg from the mainstream of a typical urban river (Haihe River). THg in the urban region (37-3237 ng g-1) was significantly higher (t-test, p < 0.01) than in suburban (71-2317 ng g-1) and developing regions (156-916 ng g-1). The sedimentary THg in suburban and developing regions increased from 2003 to 2018, indicating the elevated atmospheric deposition of Hg. Together with the temperature, grain size of sediments, total organic carbon (TOC), the pH and salinity of water, 40 components of parent and substituted polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were first introduced to quantify the driver of sedimentary THg based on generalized additive model. Results showed that anthropogenic emissions, including three PAHs components (31%) and TOC (63%), accounted for 94% of sedimentary THg variations. The aquatic environmental impacts accounted for 5% of sedimentary THg variations. The geo-accumulation index of THg indicated moderate to heavy accumulation in the urban region. This study demonstrates that homologous pollutants such as PAHs can be used to trace sources and variations of Hg pollution, supporting their co-regulation as international conventions regulate pollutants.

Spatial and temporal variations in the pollution status and sources of mercury in the Jiaozhou bay

In the past few decades, mercury (Hg) discharged into the coastal bays of China has significantly increased; however, long-term trends regarding the pollution status and sources of Hg in these bays have yet to be clear. Focusing on this issue, surface sediments and core sediments were collected in the Jiaozhou Bay (JZB), a typical bay highly affected by human activities in China, to analyze the concentrations and stable isotopic composition of Hg. Total mercury (THg) concentrations in surface sediment varied from 7 to 163 ng/g, with higher levels located in the eastern JZB, possibly attributed to intensive industrial and population density. THg in sediment cores 14 and 20 displayed fluctuating increasing trends from 1936 to 2019, reflecting the deterioration of Hg pollution. In contrast, THg in sediment core 28 near the river mouth exhibited a declining trend, possibly due to the river dam construction. Using a stable isotope mixing model, contributions of various sources (atmospheric, riverine, and industrial emissions) to Hg in the JZB were estimated. The results showed that industrial emissions were the main source (over 50%) of mercury in the JZB in 2019. Sediment cores recorded an increase in industrial Hg due to early industrialization and Reform and Opening-up before 2000. In addition, sediment core 20 demonstrated a rise in the percentage of riverine Hg due to land reclamation at the bay's mouth during 2000-2007.

A city-level dataset of heavy metal emissions into the atmosphere across China from 2015-2020

The absence of nationwide distribution data regarding heavy metal emissions into the atmosphere poses a significant constraint in environmental research and public health assessment. In response to the critical data deficiency, we have established a dataset covering Cr, Cd, As, and Pb emissions into the atmosphere (HMEAs, unit: ton) across 367 municipalities in China. Initially, we collected HMEAs data and covariates such as industrial emissions, vehicle emissions, meteorological variables, among other ten indicators. Following this, nine machine learning models, including Linear Regression (LR), Ridge, Bayesian Ridge (Bayesian), K-Neighbors Regressor (KNN), MLP Regressor (MLP), Random Forest Regressor (RF), LGBM Regressor (LGBM), Lasso, and ElasticNet, were assessed using coefficient of determination (R2), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) on the testing dataset. RF and LGBM models were chosen, due to their favorable predictive performance (R2: 0.58-0.84, lower RMSE/MAE), confirming their robustness in modelling. This dataset serves as a valuable resource for informing environmental policies, monitoring air quality, conducting environmental assessments, and facilitating academic research.