Review of the Fuel Saving, Life Cycle GHG Emission, and Ownership Cost Impacts of Lightweighting Vehicles with Different Powertrains

Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment

Although battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are climate-friendly alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), an important but often ignored fact is that the climate mitigation benefits of BEVs are usually delayed. The manufacture of BEVs is more carbon-intensive than that of ICEVs, leaving a greenhouse gas (GHG) debt to be paid back in the future use phase. Here we analyze millions of vehicle data from the Chinese market and show that the GHG break-even time (GBET) of China's BEVs ranges from zero (i.e., the production year) to over 11 years, with an average of 4.5 years. 8% of China's BEVs produced and sold between 2016 and 2018 cannot pay back their GHG debt within the eight-year battery warranty. We suggest enhancing the share of BEVs reaching the GBET by promoting the effective substitution of BEVs for ICEVs instead of the single-minded pursuit of speeding up the BEV deployment race.

Crashworthiness analysis and design of a sandwich composite electric bus structure under full frontal impact

The transition toward sustainable transportation includes adopting ecofriendly electric vehicles in public transport, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions and increases energy efficiency. One of the critical features in fuel economy improvement of electric vehicles lies in lightweight structural design. Nevertheless, the crashworthiness of the structures of the vehicles and the safety of passengers must be guaranteed in the attempt of mass reduction because the crash of large vehicles such as buses usually costs many lives. This paper, therefore, aims to present an in-depth analysis of the impact behavior of a lightweight monocoque sandwich composite microbus body under full-frontal crash conditions. The bus structure, made of a high-density polyurethane foam core and woven glass fabric-epoxy face sheets, was modeled and simulated via LS-DYNA dynamic analysis using strength-based Chang-Chang criteria to characterize the failure mechanism of the structure and investigate intrusion into the passenger survival space. Under front collision, the front panel, A-pillars, and front sidewalls of the original bus were found to be extensively damaged in the compressive fiber mode. Based on the 50^th percentile male dummy anthropometric parameters, injury indices of 0-5 intervals were proposed to evaluate occupant injury risks. The maximum front and side intrusion into the specified safety space under a maximum impact speed of 50 km/h is 208 mm at the front panel and 221 mm at the sidewall, indicating high injury indices of 3.59 and 4.81, respectively. The effects of stiffeners reinforced in the front panel and foam core thicknesses in the sidewalls, floor, and bottom parts on crashworthiness improvement were thoroughly discussed. The improved bus design can significantly enhance the safety of the occupants with a minimal increase in structural weight of merely 35.6 kg. An effective vehicle safety design under full frontal collision is presented.

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Light-Duty Transport in Line with the 2 °C Target

Making, driving, and disposing of U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) account for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions related to energy and processing. This study calculates future emissions and global temperature rises attributable to U.S. LDVs. We examine how 2021-2050 U.S. LDV cumulative emissions can be limited to 23.1 Gt CO_2equiv, helping to limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We vary four vehicle life cycle parameters (transport demand, sales share of alternative fuel vehicles, vehicle material recycling rates, and vehicle lifespans) in a dynamic fleet analysis to determine annual LDV sales, scrappage, and fleet compositions. We combine these data with vehicle technology and electricity emission scenarios to calculate annual production, use, and disposal emissions attributable to U.S. LDVs. Only 3% of the 1512 modeled pathways stay within the emission limit. Cumulative emissions are most sensitive to transport demand, and the speed of fleet electrification and electricity decarbonization. Increasing production of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 100% of sales by 2040 (at the latest) is necessary, and early retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles is beneficial. Rapid electricity decarbonization minimizes emissions from BEV use and increasingly energy-intensive vehicle production. Deploying high fuel economy vehicles can increase emissions from the production of BEV batteries and lightweight materials. Increased recycling has a small effect on these emissions because over the time period there are few postconsumer batteries and lightweight materials available for recycling. Without aggressive actions, U.S. LDVs will likely exceed the cumulative emissions budget by 2039 and contribute a further 0.02 °C to global warming by 2050, 2.7% of the remaining global 2 °C budget.

Private versus Shared, Automated Electric Vehicles for U.S. Personal Mobility: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Grid Integration, and Cost Impacts

Transportation is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption globally. While the convergence of shared mobility, vehicle automation, and electrification has the potential to drastically reduce transportation impacts, it requires careful integration with rapidly evolving electricity systems. Here, we examine these interactions using a U.S.-wide simulation framework encompassing private electric vehicles (EVs), shared automated EVs (SAEVs), charging infrastructure, controlled EV charging, and a grid economic dispatch model to simulate personal mobility exclusively using EVs. We find that private EVs with uncontrolled charging would reduce GHG emissions by 46% compared to gasoline vehicles. Private EVs with fleetwide controlled charging would achieve a 49% reduction in emissions from baseline and reduce peak charging demand by 53% from the uncontrolled scenario. We also find that an SAEV fleet 9% the size of today's active vehicle fleet can satisfy trip demand with only 2.6 million chargers (0.2 per EV). Such an SAEV fleet would achieve a 70% reduction in GHG emissions at 41% of the lifecycle cost as a private EV fleet with controlled charging. The emissions and cost advantage of SAEVs is primarily due to reduced vehicle manufacturing compared with private EVs.

Hourly Power Grid Variations, Electric Vehicle Charging Patterns, and Operating Emissions

Light-duty vehicles emit ∼20% of net US greenhouse gases. Deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce these emissions. The magnitude of the reduction depends significantly on EV charging patterns and hourly power grid variations. Previous US EV studies either do not use hourly grid data, or use data from 2012 or earlier. Since 2012, US grids have undergone major emission-relevant changes, including growth of solar from ∼1 to ∼20% of generation in California, and >30% reduction of coal power countrywide. This study uses hourly grid data from 2018 and 2019 (alongside hourly charging, driving, and temperature data) to estimate EV use emissions in 60 cases spanning the US. The emission impact of charging pattern varies by region. In California and New York, respectively, overnight EV charging produces ∼70% more and ∼20% fewer emissions than daytime charging. We quantify error from two common approximations in EV emission analysis, ignoring hourly variation in grid power and ignoring temperature-driven variation in fuel economy. The combined error exceeds 10% in 30% of cases, and reaches 50% in California, home to half of US EVs. A novel EV emission approximation is introduced, validated (<1% error), and used to estimate EV emissions in future scenarios.

Automotive Lightweight Design: Simulation Modeling of Mass-Related Consumption for Electric Vehicles

A thorough assessment of Life-Cycle effects involved by vehicle lightweighting needs a rigorous evaluation of mass-induced consumption, on which energy and sustainability benefits during use stage directly depend. The paper proposes an analytical calculation procedure to estimate the weight-related energy consumption of pure Electric Vehicles (EVs), since existing literature leaves considerable room for improvement regarding this research area. The correlation between consumption and mass is expressed through the Energy Reduction Value (ERV) coefficient, which quantifies the specific consumption saving achievable through 100 kg mass reduction. The ERV is estimated for a number of heterogeneous case studies derived from real 2019 European market EV models and according to three drive cycles, to consider different driving behaviors. For the case studies under consideration, ERV ranges from 0.47 to 1.17 kWh/(100 km × 100 kg), with the variability mainly depending on vehicle size and driving cycle. Given the high uncertainty of mass-related consumption on car size, an analytical method is refined to estimate accurately the ERV for any real-world EV model, starting from vehicle technical features. Along with energy assessment, the research also evaluates the environmental implications of lightweight design by means of the Impact Reduction Value (IRV), which is estimated for three distinct electricity grid mixes. Finally, the ERV/IRV modeling approach is applied to a series of comparative lightweight case studies taken from the literature. Such an application demonstrates the effective utility of the work to reduce the uncertainty for all cases where no physical tests or computer-aided simulations are available.

Design of Eco-Efficient Body Parts for Electric Vehicles Considering Life Cycle Environmental Information

The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the entire life cycle of vehicles has become part of the strategic objectives in automotive industry. In this regard, the design of future body parts should be carried out based on information of life cycle GHG emissions. The substitution of steel towards lightweight materials is a major trend, with the industry undergoing a fundamental shift towards the introduction of electric vehicles (EV). The present research aims to support the conceptual design of body parts with a combined perspective on mechanical performance and life cycle GHG emissions. Particular attention is paid to the fact that the GHG impact of EV in the use phase depends on vehicle-specific factors that may not be specified at the conceptual design stage of components, such as the market-specific electricity mix used for vehicle charging. A methodology is proposed that combines a simplified numerical design of concept alternatives and an analytic approach estimating life cycle GHG emissions. It is applied to a case study in body part design based on a set of principal geometries and load cases, a range of materials (aluminum, glass and carbon fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP, CFRP) as substitution to a steel reference) and different use stage scenarios of EV. A new engineering chart was developed, which helps design engineers to compare life cycle GHG emissions of lightweight material concepts to the reference. For body shells, the replacement of the steel reference with aluminum or GFRP shows reduced lifecycle GHG emissions for most use phase scenarios. This holds as well for structural parts being designed on torsional stiffness. For structural parts designed on tension/compression or bending stiffness CFRP designs show lowest lifecycle GHG emissions. In all cases, a high share of renewable electricity mix and a short lifetime pose the steel reference in favor. It is argued that a further elaboration of the approach could substantially increase transparency between design choices and life cycle GHG emissions.

From aviation to automotive - a study on material selection and its implication on cost and weight efficient structural composite and sandwich designs

The design of a composite material structure is often challenging as it is driven by the trade-off between lightweight performance and production costs. In this paper, the boundaries of this design trade-off and its implications on material selection, geometrical design and manufacturability are analysed for a number of design strategies and composite material systems. The analysis is founded on a methodology that couples weight-optimization and technical cost modelling through an application-bound design cost. Each design strategy is evaluated for three levels of bending and torsional stiffness. The resulting stiffness-versus cost-range together constructs the design envelope and provides guidelines on the suitability and improvement potential of each case. Design strategies researched include monolithic, u-beam-, sandwich-insert- and sandwich-stiffened plates. Considered material systems include carbon-, glass, recycled carbon-, lignin- and hemp-fibre reinforced composites. Optimized sandwich designs are shown to have lowest design cost. Glass-, recycled carbon-, lignin- and hemp-fibre reinforced composite materials are all shown to reduce costs but at lower stiffness performance. Ultimately, the case study demonstrates the importance of early structural design trade-off studies and material selection and justifies introducing novel fibre systems in low-cost applications of moderate stiffness levels.

Regional Heterogeneity in the Emissions Benefits of Electrified and Lightweighted Light-Duty Vehicles

Electrification and lightweighting technologies are important components of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction strategies for light-duty vehicles. Assessments of GHG emissions from light-duty vehicles should take a cradle-to-grave life cycle perspective and capture important regional effects. We report the first regionally explicit (county-level) life cycle assessment of the use of lightweighting and electrification for light-duty vehicles in the U.S. Regional differences in climate, electric grid burdens, and driving patterns compound to produce significant regional heterogeneity in the GHG benefits of electrification. We show that lightweighting further accentuates these regional differences. In fact, for the midsized cars considered in our analysis, model results suggest that aluminum lightweight vehicles with a combustion engine would have similar emissions to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in about 25% of the counties in the US and lower than battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 20% of counties. The results highlight the need for a portfolio of fuel efficient offerings to recognize the heterogeneity of regional climate, electric grid burdens, and driving patterns.

Green Principles for Vehicle Lightweighting

A large portion of life cycle transportation impacts occur during vehicle operation, and key improvement strategies include increasing powertrain efficiency, vehicle electrification, and lightweighting vehicles by reducing their mass. The potential energy benefits of vehicle lightweighting are large, given that 29.5 EJ was used in all modes of U.S. transportation in 2016, and roughly half of the energy spent in wheeled transportation and the majority of energy spent in aircraft is used to move vehicle mass. We collect and review previous work on lightweighting, identify key parameters affecting vehicle environmental performance (e.g., vehicle mode, fuel type, material type, and recyclability), and propose a set of 10 principles, with examples, to guide environmental improvement of vehicle systems through lightweighting. These principles, based on a life cycle perspective and taken as a set, allow a wide range of stakeholders (designers, policy-makers, and vehicle manufacturers and their material and component suppliers) to evaluate the trade-offs inherent in these complex systems. This set of principles can be used to evaluate trade-offs between impact categories and to help avoid shifting of burdens to other life cycle phases in the process of improving use-phase environmental performance.

A Dynamic Fleet Model of U.S Light-Duty Vehicle Lightweighting and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2016 to 2050

Substituting conventional materials with lightweight materials is an effective way to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-duty vehicles. However, estimated GHG emission reductions of lightweighting depend on multiple factors including the vehicle powertrain technology and efficiency, lightweight material employed, and end-of-life material recovery. We developed a fleet-based life cycle model to estimate the GHG emission changes due to lightweighting the U.S. light-duty fleet from 2016 to 2050, using either high strength steel or aluminum as the lightweight material. Our model estimates that implementation of an aggressive lightweighting scenario using aluminum reduces 2016 through 2050 cumulative life cycle GHG emissions from the fleet by 2.9 Gt CO₂ eq (5.6%), and annual emissions in 2050 by 11%. Lightweighting has the greatest GHG emission reduction potential when implemented in the near-term, with two times more reduction per kilometer traveled if implemented in 2016 rather than in 2030. Delaying implementation by 15 years sacrifices 72% (2.1 Gt CO₂ eq) of the cumulative GHG emission mitigation potential through 2050. Lightweighting is an effective solution that could provide important near-term GHG emission reductions especially during the next 10-20 years when the fleet is dominated by conventional powertrain vehicles.

Cost, Energy, and Environmental Impact of Automated Electric Taxi Fleets in Manhattan

Shared automated electric vehicles (SAEVs) hold great promise for improving transportation access in urban centers while drastically reducing transportation-related energy consumption and air pollution. Using taxi-trip data from New York City, we develop an agent-based model to predict the battery range and charging infrastructure requirements of a fleet of SAEVs operating on Manhattan Island. We also develop a model to estimate the cost and environmental impact of providing service and perform extensive sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our predictions. We estimate that costs will be lowest with a battery range of 50-90 mi, with either 66 chargers per square mile, rated at 11 kW or 44 chargers per square mile, rated at 22 kW. We estimate that the cost of service provided by such an SAEV fleet will be $0.29-$0.61 per revenue mile, an order of magnitude lower than the cost of service of present-day Manhattan taxis and $0.05-$0.08/mi lower than that of an automated fleet composed of any currently available hybrid or internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). We estimate that such an SAEV fleet drawing power from the current NYC power grid would reduce GHG emissions by 73% and energy consumption by 58% compared to an automated fleet of ICEVs.