Sex-based differences in odds of motor vehicle crash injury outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Several studies have documented the relative risk or odds of injury and fatality for females versus males in motor vehicle crashes (Parenteau et al. 2013, Forman et al. 2019, Brumbelow and Jermakian, 2022; Noh et al. 2022). Though, none combined National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) and Crash Investigation Sampling System (CISS). The aim of this study was to document the relative odds of various injury outcomes for females versus males while considering a broad range of crash types, pre-crash and crash variables, and occupant characteristics.

METHODS

Multivariable logistic regression was carried out to study the odds of injury for females versus males. A select imputation method (Hot Deck, Approximate Bayesian Bootstrap) was applied as part of efforts to create multivariable logistic regression models for 25 different injury outcomes associated with occupants (age 13 years and older) involved in passenger vehicle crashes published in NASS-CDS (2000 to 2015) and CISS (2017-2021). Both pre-crash (n=7) and crashworthiness (n=22) predictor variables were considered, but only significant variables at p≤0.10 level were retained in final models. Six crash-type models were produced for each injury outcome; one that included all crashes, one for each of four different planar crash types (frontal, near-side, far-side, rear), and one for crashes involving rollover. These six sets of crash-type models were expanded further to include a model version that included both pre-crash/environment and crashworthiness predictor variables and one model limited to crashworthiness predictors only. Different than other recent studies, all crash types, occupant restraint conditions, and seating positions were considered. Occupant sex was retained in all models to facilitate female versus male injury outcome odds ratio (OR) assessments.

RESULTS

Female versus male injury OR estimates for 300 unique models are presented. Females had significantly higher odds of injury than males in 36 models (OR>1.0, p-value ≤0.05). This contrasts with 43 models where females had significantly lower odds (OR<1.0, p≤0.05). For the remaining 221 models, there was a near even split in how often the odds of injury were non-significantly higher (n=103) and non-significantly lower (n=114) for females as compared to males (p>0.05). In four cases, the OR estimate was 1.00. Amongst the results, there was a trend for females to have higher odds of AIS 2+ injuries (MAIS 2+ OR=1.75 and 1.69 for Full and Crashworthiness models, respectively for the All Crashes dataset). These increases included higher estimates for lower extremity injuries in frontal crashes, consistent with earlier studies (e.g., Forman et al. 2019). However, for certain AIS 2+ (neck, thorax) and AIS 3+ injuries (head, neck, thorax), females had significantly lower odds of injury (p≤0.05). The trends for reduced odds of injury for females were most prevalent in non-frontal crash models.

Demographic adjustments to driver death rates by vehicle type and size

OBJECTIVE

Driver death rates per million registered vehicles are often used to compare the real-world crash experiences of vehicles of different types and sizes. However, these rates are affected by the risky behavior of drivers (e.g., speeding, impaired driving, lack of restraint use) that differs by age and gender. This paper presents a method for adjusting driver death rates to account for differences in driver age and gender.

METHODS

Driver death rates per million registered vehicles per year were calculated for passenger vehicles of model year 2020. To account for potential differences in driver exposure by age and gender, which can affect motor vehicle crash and injury experience, an algebraic method was used to standardize these rates to a common distribution of female drivers ages 25-64. The standardization depends upon an independent estimate of the relative fatality risk for female drivers ages 25-64.

RESULTS

The smallest vehicles tended to have higher driver death rates compared with larger vehicles. However, for sports cars, this trend was reversed; larger sports cars had higher driver death rates. Vehicle types popular with male drivers, such as sports cars and pickups, had standardized death rates that were much lower than the raw rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The adjustment for driver age and gender greatly reduced the variability of driver death rates among vehicle types. The procedure used here to adjust driver death rates for driver age and gender can be extended to any situation where it is desired to compare the crash rates of two or more subgroups of a population.

IIHS small overlap frontal crash test ratings and real-world driver death risk

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate how ratings for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) driver-side small-overlap frontal crash test predict real-world driver death risk in frontal impacts.

METHODS

IIHS released the driver-side small-overlap frontal crash test in 2012, after manufacturers had improved vehicle designs to make good ratings in the IIHS moderate overlap frontal crash test virtually ubiquitous. In the small overlap test, the vehicle impacts a rigid barrier at 40 mph (64 km/h) with 25% of the vehicle's width overlapping the barrier. As in other IIHS tests, vehicles are rated as good, acceptable, marginal, or poor. Drivers' risk of dying in a frontal crash was estimated by dividing driver deaths by driver involvements in police-reported crashes and modeling with logistic regression to estimate the effect of crash test rating, while controlling for driver age and sex, vehicle type and curb weight, and number of vehicles in the crash.

RESULTS

Drivers of good-rated vehicles were 12% less likely to die in frontal impacts than drivers of poor-rated vehicles. This estimate was 11% for acceptable-rated vehicles and 5% (not statistically significant) for marginal-rated vehicles, compared with vehicles rated poor.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study demonstrates that the IIHS driver-side small-overlap crash test rating encourages vehicle designs that reduce drivers' real-world risk of dying in frontal crashes.

Efficient simulation strategy to design a safer motorcycle

This work presents models and simulations of a numerical strategy for a time and cost-efficient virtual product development of a novel passive safety restraint concept for motorcycles. It combines multiple individual development tasks in an aggregated procedure. The strategy consists of three successive virtual development stages with a continuously increasing level of detail and expected fidelity in multibody and finite element simulation environments. The results show what is possible with an entirely virtual concept study-based on the clever combination of multibody dynamics and nonlinear finite elements-that investigates the structural behavior and impact dynamics of the powered two-wheeler with the safety systems and the rider's response. The simulations show a guided and controlled trajectory and deceleration of the motorcycle rider, resulting in fewer critical biomechanical loads on the rider compared to an impact with a conventional motorcycle. The numerical research strategy outlines a novel procedure in virtual motorcycle accident research with different levels of computational effort and model complexity aimed at a step-by-step validation of individual components in the future.

Crashworthiness analysis and design of a sandwich composite electric bus structure under full frontal impact

The transition toward sustainable transportation includes adopting ecofriendly electric vehicles in public transport, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions and increases energy efficiency. One of the critical features in fuel economy improvement of electric vehicles lies in lightweight structural design. Nevertheless, the crashworthiness of the structures of the vehicles and the safety of passengers must be guaranteed in the attempt of mass reduction because the crash of large vehicles such as buses usually costs many lives. This paper, therefore, aims to present an in-depth analysis of the impact behavior of a lightweight monocoque sandwich composite microbus body under full-frontal crash conditions. The bus structure, made of a high-density polyurethane foam core and woven glass fabric-epoxy face sheets, was modeled and simulated via LS-DYNA dynamic analysis using strength-based Chang-Chang criteria to characterize the failure mechanism of the structure and investigate intrusion into the passenger survival space. Under front collision, the front panel, A-pillars, and front sidewalls of the original bus were found to be extensively damaged in the compressive fiber mode. Based on the 50^th percentile male dummy anthropometric parameters, injury indices of 0-5 intervals were proposed to evaluate occupant injury risks. The maximum front and side intrusion into the specified safety space under a maximum impact speed of 50 km/h is 208 mm at the front panel and 221 mm at the sidewall, indicating high injury indices of 3.59 and 4.81, respectively. The effects of stiffeners reinforced in the front panel and foam core thicknesses in the sidewalls, floor, and bottom parts on crashworthiness improvement were thoroughly discussed. The improved bus design can significantly enhance the safety of the occupants with a minimal increase in structural weight of merely 35.6 kg. An effective vehicle safety design under full frontal collision is presented.

A finite element-guided mathematical surrogate modeling approach for assessing occupant injury trends across variations in simplified vehicular impact conditions

A finite element (FE)-guided mathematical surrogate modeling methodology is presented for evaluating relative injury trends across varied vehicular impact conditions. The prevalence of crash-induced injuries necessitates the quantification of the human body's response to impacts. FE modeling is often used for crash analyses but requires time and computational cost. However, surrogate modeling can predict injury trends between the FE data, requiring fewer FE simulations to evaluate the complete testing range. To determine the viability of this methodology for injury assessment, crash-induced occupant head injury criterion (HIC₁₅) trends were predicted from Kriging models across varied impact velocities (10-45 mph; 16.1-72.4 km/h), locations (near side, far side, front, and rear), and angles (-45 to 45°) and compared to previously published data. These response trends were analyzed to locate high-risk target regions. Impact velocity and location were the most influential factors, with HIC₁₅ increasing alongside the velocity and proximity to the driver. The impact angle was dependent on the location and was minimally influential, often producing greater HIC₁₅ under oblique angles. These model-based head injury trends were consistent with previously published data, demonstrating great promise for the proposed methodology, which provides effective and efficient quantification of human response across a wide variety of car crash scenarios, simultaneously. This study presents a finite element-guided mathematical surrogate modeling methodology to evaluate occupant injury response trends for a wide range of impact velocities (10-45 mph), locations, and angles (-45 to 45°). Head injury response trends were predicted and compared to previously published data to assess the efficacy of the methodology for assessing occupant response to variations in impact conditions. Velocity and location were the most influential factors on the head injury response, with the risk increasing alongside greater impact velocity and locational proximity to the driver. Additionally, the angle of impact variable was dependent on the location and, thus, had minimal independent influence on the head injury risk.

Relationship between frontal car-to-car test result and vehicle crash compatibility evaluation in mobile progressive deformable barrier test

Objective: In 2020, the world's first crash compatibility rating test will be introduced in the European mobile progressive deformable barrier (MPDB) test. In this research, the quantitative change in partner protection performance of large vehicles in car-to-car (C2C) impacts was studied if these large vehicles were designed in future based on MPDB tests addressing crash compatibility ratings. Methods: Representative vehicles of the European fleet were selected and a Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) parameter study was conducted. In particular, by changing an indicator of structural interaction performance (SD; i.e., the degree of uniformity of barrier deformation)/mass/stiffness of large vehicles systematically in a step-by-step approach, the compatibility evaluation results of large vehicles in MPDB and the occupant injury score of small vehicles in C2C impacts were compared. The CAE result was evaluated compared to that of C2C physical impact tests. Results: The CAE parameter study showed that in the C2C impact condition, the effects on occupant injury in a small vehicle due to changes in the large vehicle were as follows: (1) SD change: The effect was minor except for small overlap condition. (2) Mass and stiffness change: The effect was relatively major. On the other hand, compatibility evaluation in the MPDB showed a tendency to overestimate the effect of SD change in comparison with the above-mentioned C2C impact condition. In addition, physical impact tests showed that, based on SD evaluation, the large vehicle with a relatively inferior compatibility rating compared to those with superior compatibility ratings showed a contradicting trend of better compatibility performance in the C2C test. Conclusions: The currently proposed compatibility evaluation method of the MPDB test showed some tendency to overestimate the effect of SD change and resulted in quantitatively inconsistent outcomes regarding occupant injury in the partner car in C2C impact conditions.

Frontal crashworthiness characterisation of a vehicle segment using curve comparison metrics

The objective of this work is to propose a methodology for the characterization of the collision behaviour and crashworthiness of a segment of vehicles, by selecting the vehicle that best represents that group. It would be useful in the development of deformable barriers, to be used in crash tests intended to study vehicle compatibility, as well as for the definition of the representative standard pulses used in numerical simulations or component testing. The characterisation and selection of representative vehicles is based on the objective comparison of the occupant compartment acceleration and barrier force pulses, obtained during crash tests, by using appropriate comparison metrics. This method is complemented with another one, based exclusively on the comparison of a few characteristic parameters of crash behaviour obtained from the previous curves. The method has been applied to different vehicle groups, using test data from a sample of vehicles. During this application, the performance of several metrics usually employed in the validation of simulation models have been analysed, and the most efficient ones have been selected for the task. The methodology finally defined is useful for vehicle segment characterization, taken into account aspects of crash behaviour related to the shape of the curves, difficult to represent by simple numerical parameters, and it may be tuned in future works when applied to larger and different samples.

Application of energy derivative method to determine the structural components' contribution to deceleration in crashes

OBJECTIVE

For occupant protection, it is important to understand how a car's deceleration time history in crashes can be designed using efficient of energy absorption by a car body's structure. In a previous paper, the authors proposed an energy derivative method to determine each structural component's contribution to the longitudinal deceleration of a car passenger compartment in crashes. In this study, this method was extended to 2 dimensions in order to analyze various crash test conditions. The contribution of each structure estimated from the energy derivative method was compared to that from a conventional finite element (FE) analysis method using cross-sectional forces.

METHOD

A 2-dimensional energy derivative method was established. A simple FE model with a structural column connected to a rigid body was used to confirm the validity of this method and to compare with the result of cross-sectional forces determined using conventional analysis. Applying this method to a full-width frontal impact simulation of a car FE model, the contribution and the cross-sectional forces of the front rails were compared. In addition, this method was applied to a pedestrian headform FE simulation in order to determine the influence of the structural and inertia forces of the hood structures on the deceleration of the headform undergoing planar motion.

RESULT

In an oblique impact of the simple column and rigid body model, the sum of the contributions of each part agrees with the rigid body deceleration, which indicates the validity of the 2-dimensional energy derivative method. Using the energy derivative method, it was observed that each part of the column contributes to the deceleration of the rigid body by collapsing in the sequence from front to rear, whereas the cross-sectional force at the rear of the column cannot detect the continuous collapse. In the full-width impact of a car, the contributions of the front rails estimated in the energy derivative method was smaller than that using the cross-sectional forces at the rear end of the front rails due to the deformation of the passenger compartment. For a pedestrian headform impact, the inertial and structural forces of the hood contributed to peaks of the headform deceleration in the initial and latter phases, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the 2-dimensional energy derivative method, it is possible to analyze an oblique impact or a pedestrian headform impact with large rotations. This method has advantages compared to the conventional approach using cross-sectional forces because the contribution of each component to system deceleration can be determined.

Proposal of a calculation method to determine the structural components' contribution on the deceleration of a passenger compartment based on the energy-derivative method

OBJECTIVE

In car crashes, the passenger compartment deceleration significantly influences the occupant loading. Hence, it is important to consider how each structural component deforms in order to control the passenger compartment deceleration. In frontal impact tests, the passenger compartment deceleration depends on the energy absorption property of the front structures. However, at this point in time there are few papers describing the components' quantitative contributions on the passenger compartment deceleration. Generally, the cross-sectional force is used to examine each component's contribution to passenger compartment deceleration. However, it is difficult to determine each component's contribution based on the cross-sectional forces, especially within segments of the individual members itself such as the front rails, because the force is transmitted continuously and the cross-sectional forces remain the same through the component.

METHOD

The deceleration of a particle can be determined from the derivative of the kinetic energy. Using this energy-derivative method, the contribution of each component on the passenger compartment deceleration can be determined. Using finite element (FE) car models, this method was applied for full-width and offset impact tests. This method was also applied to evaluate the deceleration of the powertrain. The finite impulse response (FIR) coefficient of the vehicle deceleration (input) and the driver chest deceleration (output) was calculated from Japan New Car Assessment Program (JNCAP) tests. These were applied to the component's contribution on the vehicle deceleration in FE analysis, and the component's contribution to the deceleration of the driver's chest was determined.

RESULT

The sum of the contribution of each component coincides with the passenger compartment deceleration in all types of impacts; therefore, the validity of this method was confirmed. In the full-width impact, the contribution of the crush box was large in the initial phases, and the contribution of the passenger compartment was large in the final phases. For the powertrain deceleration, the crush box had a positive contribution and the passenger compartment had a negative contribution. In the offset test, the contribution of the honeycomb and the passenger compartment deformation to the passenger compartment deceleration was large. Based on the FIR analysis, the passenger compartment deformation contributed the most to the chest deceleration of the driver dummy in the full-width impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the energy-derivative method, the contribution of the components' deformation to deceleration of the passenger compartment can be calculated for various types of crash configurations more easily, directly, and quantitatively than by using conventional methods. In addition, by combining the energy-derivative method and FIR, each structure's contribution to the occupant deceleration can be obtained. The energy-derivative method is useful in investigating how the deceleration develops from component deformations and also in designing deceleration curves for various impact configurations.

Effectiveness of the revision to FMVSS 301: FARS and NASS-CDS analysis of fatalities and severe injuries in rear impacts

PURPOSE

This study investigated the change in the fatality and severe injury risks in rear impacts with vehicle model years (MY) grouped prior to, during the phase-in and after the revision to FMVSS 301.

METHODS

FARS and NASS-CDS data were used to determine the injury risks of non-ejected occupants in light vehicles involving non-rollover, rear impacts. The data were analyzed by MY groups: 1996-2001, 2002-2007 and 2008+ to represent the years prior to, during the phase-in and post-revision phase-in of FMVSS 301. The 1996-2013 FARS data were analyzed for rear crashes defined by the initial crash direction (IMPACT1) and direction with most damage (IMPACT2) to the rear. Fatality risk was determined by the number of fatally injured occupants per all occupants with known injury status. The 1994-2013 NASS-CDS was analyzed for rear crashes defined by the damage area variable. The risk of severe injury (MAIS 4+F) was determined as the number of occupants with MAIS 4+F injury per all occupants with known injury status. The distribution of rear crashes was determined by impact location and crash severity. NASS-CDS electronic cases with 2008+ MY vehicles were analyzed to evaluate the vehicle and occupant performance.

RESULTS

The fatality risk was 20.6% in the 1996-2001, 17.3% in the 2002-2007 and 15.0% in the 2008+ MY vehicles using FARS with the initial crash direction variable (IMPACT1) to the rear. There was a 27.1% reduction in risk with post-FMVSS 301 vehicles 2008+ MY. The risk was 19.0%, 15.4% and 12.8% with the most damage variable (IMPACT2) to the rear. There was 32.8% reduction in risk with 2008+ MY vehicles. The NASS-CDS analysis showed that the risk of severe injury (MAIS 4+F) was 0.27±0.05% for 1996-2001, 0.30±0.13% for 2002-2007 and 0.08±0.04% for 2008+ MY year vehicles. There was a 70.2% reduction in the risk for severe injury with 2008+ MY vehicles. The NASS-CDS case review of MAIS 4+F injury in rear impacts of 2008+ MY vehicles that comply with the revised FMVSS 301 indicated that the crashes were very severe and generally involved significant 2nd row intrusion.

CONCLUSIONS

The revision to FMVSS 301 has effectively reduced the risks for fatal and severe injury in vehicles compliant with the revision (2008+ MY). The reduction was 27.1-32.8% in fatality risk using FARS data and 70.2% in severe injury risk using the NASS-CDS when compared to vehicles prior to the phase-in of the revised FMVSS 301 (1996-2001 MY vehicles). It is not possible to parse the effects of other design changes in seats and restraint systems that also increased safety over the study years.

Occupant injury and fatality in general aviation aircraft for which dynamic crash testing is certification-mandated

Towards further improving general aviation aircraft crashworthiness, multi-axis dynamic tests have been required for aircraft certification (14CFR23.562) since 1985. The objective of this study was to determine if occupants in aircraft certified to these higher crashworthiness standards show a mitigated fraction of fatal accidents and/or injury severity. The NTSB aviation database was queried for accidents occurring between 2002 and 2012 involving aircraft certified to, or immune from, dynamic crash testing and manufactured after 1999. Only operations conducted under 14CFR Part 91 were considered. Statistical analysis employed proportion tests and logistic regression. Off-airport landings are associated with high decelerative forces; however for off-airport landings, the fraction of fatal accidents for aircraft subject to, or exempt from, dynamic crash testing was similar (0.53 and 0.60, respectively). Unexpectedly, for on-airport landings a higher fraction of fatalities was evident for aircraft whose certification mandated dynamic crash testing. Improved crashworthiness standards would be expected to translate into a reduced severity of accident injuries. For all accidents, as well as for those deemed survivable, the fraction of minor and serious injuries was reduced for occupants in aircraft certified to the higher crashworthiness standards. Surprisingly, the fraction of occupants fatally injured was not decreased for aircraft subject to dynamic crash tests. To shed light on this unexpected finding flight history, airman demographics and post-impact fires for aircraft for which dynamic crash testing is mandatory or exempt was examined. For the former cohort the median distance of the accident flight was nearly 44% higher. Aircraft subject to dynamic crash testing were also involved in a greater fraction (0.25 versus 0.12, respectively) of post-impact fires. Our data suggest that while the more stringent crashworthiness standards have mitigated minor and serious injuries, surprisingly the fraction of occupants fatally injured is unaltered. The unchanged fraction of fatal injuries may reflect partly (a) fatigue associated with longer flight distances and (b) a greater proportion of post-impact fires.

Aortic injuries in newer vehicles

The occurrence of AI was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age≥16 in vehicles MY≥1994, entered in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System between 1997 and 2010 to determine whether newer vehicles, due to their crashworthiness improvements, are linked to a lower risk of aortic injuries (AI). MY was categorized as 1994-1997, 1998-2004, or 2005-2010 reflecting the introduction of newer occupant protection technology. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals for the association between AI and MY independent of possible confounders. Analysis was repeated, stratified by frontal and near lateral impacts. AI occurred in 19,187 (0.06%) of the 31,221,007 (weighted) cases, and contributed to 11% of all deaths. AIs were associated with advanced age, male gender, high BMI, near-side impact, rollover, ejection, collision against a fixed object, high ΔV, vehicle mismatch, unrestrained status, and forward track position. Among frontal crashes, MY 98-04 and MY 05-10 showed increased adjusted odds of AI when compared to MY 94-97 [OR 1.84 (1.02-3.32) and 1.99 (0.93-4.26), respectively]. In contrast, among near-side impact crashes, MY 98-04 and MY 05-10 showed decreased adjusted odds of AI [OR 0.50 (0.25-0.99) and 0.27 (0.06-1.31), respectively]. While occupants of newer vehicles experience lower odds of AI in near side impact crashes, a higher AI risk is present in frontal crashes.