1
|
Li H, Zheng B, Ciais P, Boersma KF, Riess TCVW, Martin RV, Broquet G, van der A R, Li H, Hong C, Lei Y, Kong Y, Zhang Q, He K. Satellite reveals a steep decline in China's CO 2 emissions in early 2022. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg7429. [PMID: 37478188 PMCID: PMC10361590 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg7429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 06/16/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023]
Abstract
Response actions to the coronavirus disease 2019 perturbed economies and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Omicron variant that emerged in 2022 caused more substantial infections than in 2020 and 2021 but it has not yet been ascertained whether Omicron interrupted the temporary post-2021 rebound of CO2 emissions. Here, using satellite nitrogen dioxide observations combined with atmospheric inversion, we show a larger decline in China's CO2 emissions between January and April 2022 than in those months during the first wave of 2020. China's CO2 emissions are estimated to have decreased by 15% (equivalent to -244.3 million metric tons of CO2) during the 2022 lockdown, greater than the 9% reduction during the 2020 lockdown. Omicron affected most of the populated and industrial provinces in 2022, hindering China's CO2 emissions rebound starting from 2021. China's emission variations agreed with downstream CO2 concentration changes, indicating a potential to monitor CO2 emissions by integrating satellite and ground measurements.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hui Li
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Bo Zheng
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - K. Folkert Boersma
- Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
- Climate Observations Department, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
| | | | - Randall V. Martin
- Department of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Gregoire Broquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Ronald van der A
- R&D Satellite Observations, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
| | - Haiyan Li
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Chaopeng Hong
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Yu Lei
- Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
| | - Yawen Kong
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Kebin He
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Qiu M, Ratledge N, Azevedo IML, Diffenbaugh NS, Burke M. Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2300395120. [PMID: 37410866 PMCID: PMC10334796 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2300395120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The western United States has experienced severe drought in recent decades, and climate models project increased drought risk in the future. This increased drying could have important implications for the region's interconnected, hydropower-dependent electricity systems. Using power-plant level generation and emissions data from 2001 to 2021, we quantify the impacts of drought on the operation of fossil fuel plants and the associated impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and human health. We find that under extreme drought, electricity generation from individual fossil fuel plants can increase up to 65% relative to average conditions, mainly due to the need to substitute for reduced hydropower. Over 54% of this drought-induced generation is transboundary, with drought in one electricity region leading to net imports of electricity and thus increased pollutant emissions from power plants in other regions. These drought-induced emission increases have detectable impacts on local air quality, as measured by proximate pollution monitors. We estimate that the monetized costs of excess mortality and GHG emissions from drought-induced fossil generation are 1.2 to 2.5x the reported direct economic costs from lost hydro production and increased demand. Combining climate model estimates of future drying with stylized energy-transition scenarios suggests that these drought-induced impacts are likely to remain large even under aggressive renewables expansion, suggesting that more ambitious and targeted measures are needed to mitigate the emissions and health burden from the electricity sector during drought.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Minghao Qiu
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Nathan Ratledge
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Inés M. L. Azevedo
- Department of Energy Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | | | - Marshall Burke
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA02138
| |
Collapse
|