Criticality of iron and its principal alloying elements

Win-Win: Anthropogenic circularity for metal criticality and carbon neutrality

Resource depletion and environmental degradation have fueled a burgeoning discipline of anthropogenic circularity since the 2010s. It generally consists of waste reuse, remanufacturing, recycling, and recovery. Circular economy and "zero-waste" cities are sweeping the globe in their current practices to address the world's grand concerns linked to resources, the environment, and industry. Meanwhile, metal criticality and carbon neutrality, which have become increasingly popular in recent years, denote the material's feature and state, respectively. The goal of this article is to determine how circularity, criticality, and neutrality are related. Upscale anthropogenic circularity has the potential to expand the metal supply and, as a result, reduce metal criticality. China barely accomplished 15 % of its potential emission reduction by recycling iron, copper, and aluminum. Anthropogenic circularity has a lot of room to achieve a win-win objective, which is to reduce metal criticality while also achieving carbon neutrality in a near closed-loop cycle. Major barriers or challenges for conducting anthropogenic circularity are deriving from the inadequacy of life-cycle insight governance and the emergence of anthropogenic circularity discipline. Material flow analysis and life cycle assessment are the central methodologies to identify the hidden problems. Mineral processing and smelting, as well as end-of-life management, are indicated as critical priority areas for enhancing anthropogenic circularity.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s11783-023-1623-2 and is accessible for authorized users.

Characterizing the Changes in Material Use due to Vehicle Electrification

Modern automobiles are composed of more than 2000 different compounds comprising 76 different elements. Identifying supply risks across this palette of materials is important to ensure a smooth transition to more sustainable transportation technologies. This paper provides insight into how electrification is changing vehicle composition and how that change drives supply risk vulnerability by providing the first comprehensive, high-resolution (elemental and compound level) snapshot of material use in both conventional and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) using a consistent methodology. To make these contributions, we analyze part-level data of material use for seven current year models, ranging from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) to plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). With this data set, we apply a novel machine learning algorithm to estimate missing or unreported composition data. We propose and apply a metric of vulnerability, referred to as exposure, which captures economic importance and susceptibility to price changes. We find that exposure increases from $874 per vehicle for ICEV passenger vehicles to $2344 per vehicle for SUV PHEVs. The shift to a PHEV fleet would double automaker exposure adding approximately $1 billion per year of supply risk to a hypothetical fleet of a million vehicles. The increase in exposure is largely not only due to the increased use of battery elements like cobalt, graphite, and nickel but also some more commonly used materials, most notably copper.

Evaluating Metal Criticality for Low-Carbon Power Generation Technologies in Japan

Given a potential increase in low-carbon power generation, assessing the criticality of metals used for its technologies is of significant importance. While several studies analyzed the metal criticality of an individual technology, the national metal criticality for a wide range of low-carbon power generation technologies and the comparison of overall criticality of each technology have yet to be fully evaluated. Therefore, this study firstly evaluates the criticality of 29 metals used in facilities for renewable energy and highly efficient thermal power generation in Japan and then compares the overall criticality for each technology to identify metals that might impose limitations on these technologies and to discuss measures for removal of factors hindering the spread of low-carbon power generation technologies. It was discovered that solar power generation technology is the most critical technology from the perspective of supply risk due to the use of indium, cadmium and selenium, while wind power generation is the most critical technology from the perspective of vulnerability to supply restriction because of the use of neodymium and dysprosium. A developed approach would have a significant potential to contributing to energy-mineral nexus, which may assist in providing policy implications from the perspectives of both specific metals and technologies.

Environmental Sustainability of Niobium Recycling: The Case of the Automotive Industry

The recycling of scrap is one of the common approaches aiming at reduction of mining-based production of critical metals and mitigation of their supply risk as well as processing-related environmental impact. The number of currently available end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) indicates—significant potential for critical metals recycling, especially niobium (Nb). Therefore, the quantification of environmental impact of niobium recovery starts to be an important issue in assessment of sustainability of large-scale recycling processes. In this paper, we assess energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in individual stages of niobium supply chain in the automotive industry over the period 2010–2050. The different stages including mining, production and recycling are analyzed using dynamic simulation. The results show the majority of the consumed energy (45% of energy demand in niobium supply chain) is used in the primary production stage. This stage also contributes to 72% of total gas emissions of supply chain over the period 2010–2050. Mining of niobium consumes up to 36% of energy and generates ca. 21% of GHG emissions. While, in recycling stage, the secondary production of niobium requires 19% of supply chain energy and generates 7% of gas emissions. The detailed calculations show that recycling of niobium could save around 133–161 m GJ energy between 2010 and 2050. The recycling would also contribute to the reduction of 44–53 mt CO2-eq in the same period. It shows around 18% reduction of annual emissions between 2010 and 2050 thanks to reuse of niobium in secondary production rather than primary production.

Towards better monitoring of technology critical elements in Europe: Coupling of natural and anthropogenic cycles

The characterization of elemental cycles has a rich history in biogeochemistry. Well known examples include the global carbon cycle, or the cycles of the 'grand nutrients' nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. More recently, efforts have increased to better understand the natural cycling of technology critical elements (TCEs), i.e. elements with a high supply risk and economic importance in the EU. On the other hand, tools such as material-flow analysis (MFA) can help to understand how substances and goods are transported and accumulated in man-made technological systems ('anthroposphere'). However, to date both biogeochemical cycles and MFA studies suffer from narrow system boundaries, failing to fully illustrate relative anthropogenic and natural flow magnitude and the degree to which human activity has perturbed the natural cycling of elements. We discuss important interconnections between natural and anthropogenic cycles and relevant EU raw material dossiers. Increased integration of both cycles could help to better capture the transport and fate of elements in nature including their environmental/human health impacts, highlight potential future material stocks in the anthroposphere (in-use stocks) and in nature (e.g., in soils, tailings, or mining wastes), and estimate anticipated emissions of TCEs to nature in the future (based on dynamic stock modeling). A preliminary assessment of natural versus anthropogenic element fluxes indicates that anthropogenic fluxes induced by the EU-28 of palladium, platinum, and antimony (as a result of materials uses) might be greater than the respective global natural fluxes. Increased combination of MFA and natural cycle data at EU level could help to derive more complete material cycles and initiate a discussion between the research communities of biogeochemists and material flow analysts to more holistically address the issues of sustainable resource management.

Calculation of Characterization Factors of Mineral Resources Considering Future Primary Resource Use Changes: A Comparison between Iron and Copper

The future availability of mineral resources has attracted much attention; therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the potential impacts of resource use on future availability is important. Although the surplus cost model is often recommended among the existing endpoint characterization models of mineral resources, it has a shortcoming as it does not consider the changes in future primary resource use. This paper introduces a new characterization model considering future primary resource use changes, due to future changes in total demand and secondary resource use. Using material flow analysis, this study estimated time-series primary resource use for iron and copper for five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and a constant total demand scenario. New characterization factors, i.e., demand change-based surplus costs (DCSC), are calculated for each resource. In all of the SSPs, the calculated DCSCs are larger than the conventional surplus costs (SC) for both iron and copper. The DCSC, relative to the SC of copper, is larger than that of iron for all of the SSPs, which suggests that the potential impacts of copper use, relative to iron, will be underestimated, unless future primary resource use changes are considered. In calculating DCSC for other resources, it is important to choose an appropriate approach for forecasting future total demands.

Quantifying Recycling and Losses of Cr and Ni in Steel Throughout Multiple Life Cycles Using MaTrace-Alloy

Alloying metals are indispensable ingredients of high quality alloy steel such as austenitic stainless steel, the cyclical use of which is vital for sustainable resource management. Under the current practice of recycling, however, different metals are likely to be mixed in an uncontrolled manner, resulting in function losses and dissipation of metals with distinctive functions, and in the contamination of recycled steels. The latter could result in dilution loss, if metal scrap needed dilution with virgin iron to reduce the contamination below critical levels. Management of these losses resulting from mixing in repeated recycling of metals requires tracking of metals over multiple life cycles of products with compositional details. A new model (MaTrace-alloy) was developed that tracks the fate of metals embodied in each of products over multiple life cycles of products, involving accumulation, discard, and recycling, with compositional details at the level of both alloys and products. The model was implemented for the flow of Cr and Ni in the Japanese steel cycle involving 27 steel species and 115 final products. It was found that, under a high level of scrap sorting, greater than 70% of the initial functionality of Cr and Ni could be retained over a period of 100 years, whereas under a poor level of sorting, it could plunge to less than 30%, demonstrating the relevance of waste management technology in circular economy policies.

Valorisation of post-sorption materials: Opportunities, strategies, and challenges

Adsorption is a facile, economic, eco-friendly and low-energy requiring technology that aims to separate diverse compounds (ions and molecules) from one phase to another using a wide variety of adsorbent materials. To date, this technology has been used most often for removal/recovery of pollutants from aqueous solutions; however, emerging post-sorption technologies are now enabling the manufacture of value-added key adsorption products that can subsequently be used for (i) fertilizers, (ii) catalysis, (iii) carbonaceous metal nanoparticle synthesis, (iv) feed additives, and (v) biologically active compounds. These new strategies ensure the sustainable valorisation of post-sorption materials as an economically viable alternative to the engineering of other green chemical products because of the ecological affability, biocompatibility, and widespread accessibility of post-sorption materials. Fertilizers and feed additives manufactured using sorption technology contain elements such as N, P, Cu, Mn, and Zn, which improve soil fertility and provide essential nutrients to animals and humans. This green and effective approach to managing post-sorption materials is an important step in reaching the global goals of sustainability and healthy human nutrition. Post-sorbents have also been utilized for the harvesting of metal nanoparticles via modern catalytic pyrolysis techniques. The resulting materials exhibited a high surface area (>1000m²/g) and are further used as catalysts and adsorbents. Together with the above possibilities, energy production from post-sorbents is under exploration. Many of the vital 3E (energy, environment, and economy) problems can be addressed using post-sorption materials. In this review, we summarize a new generation of applications of post-adsorbents as value-added green chemical products. At the end of each section, scientific challenges, further opportunities, and issues related to toxicity are discussed. We believe this critical evaluation not only delivers essential contextual information to researchers in the field but also stimulates new ideas and applications to further advance post-sorbent applications.

Regional distribution and losses of end-of-life steel throughout multiple product life cycles-Insights from the global multiregional MaTrace model

Substantial amounts of post-consumer scrap are exported to other regions or lost during recovery and remelting, and both export and losses pose a constraint to desires for having regionally closed material cycles. To quantify the challenges and trade-offs associated with closed-loop metal recycling, we looked at the material cycles from the perspective of a single material unit and trace a unit of material through several product life cycles. Focusing on steel, we used current process parameters, loss rates, and trade patterns of the steel cycle to study how steel that was originally contained in high quality applications such as machinery or vehicles with stringent purity requirements gets subsequently distributed across different regions and product groups such as building and construction with less stringent purity requirements. We applied MaTrace Global, a supply-driven multiregional model of steel flows coupled to a dynamic stock model of steel use. We found that, depending on region and product group, up to 95% of the steel consumed today will leave the use phase of that region until 2100, and that up to 50% can get lost in obsolete stocks, landfills, or slag piles until 2100. The high losses resulting from business-as-usual scrap recovery and recycling can be reduced, both by diverting postconsumer scrap into long-lived applications such as buildings and by improving the recovery rates in the waste management and remelting industries. Because the lifetimes of high-quality (cold-rolled) steel applications are shorter and remelting occurs more often than for buildings and infrastructure, we found and quantified a tradeoff between low losses and high-quality applications in the steel cycle. Furthermore, we found that with current trade patterns, reduced overall losses will lead to higher fractions of secondary steel being exported to other regions. Current loss rates, product lifetimes, and trade patterns impede the closure of the steel cycle.

Metal Dissipation and Inefficient Recycling Intensify Climate Forcing

In the metals industry, recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for climate change mitigation, because using secondary (recycled) instead of primary sources in metal production carries both the potential for significant energy savings and for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Secondary metal production is, however, limited by the relative quantity of scrap available at end-of-life for two reasons: long product lifespans during use delay the availability of the material for reuse and recycling; and end-of-life recycling rates are low, a result of inefficient collection, separation, and processing. For a few metals, additional losses exist in the form of in-use dissipation. The sum of these lost material flows forms the theoretical maximum potential for future efficiency improvements. Based on a dynamic material flow analysis, we have evaluated these factors from an energy perspective for 50 metals and calculated the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions associated with the supply of lost material from primary sources that would otherwise be used to satisfy demand. A use-by-use examination demonstrates the potential emission gains associated with major application sectors. The results show that minimizing in-use dissipation and constraints to metal recycling have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the metal industry by about 13-23%, corresponding to 1% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Deriving the Metal and Alloy Networks of Modern Technology

Metals have strongly contributed to the development of the human society. Today, large amounts of and various metals are utilized in a wide variety of products. Metals are rarely used individually but mostly together with other metals in the form of alloys and/or other combinational uses. This study reveals the intersectoral flows of metals by means of input-output (IO) based material flow analysis (MFA). Using the 2007 United States IO table, we calculate the flows of eight metals (i.e., manganese, chromium, nickel, molybdenum, niobium, vanadium, tungsten, and cobalt) and simultaneously visualize them as a network. We quantify the interrelationship of metals by means of flow path sharing. Furthermore, by looking at the flows of alloys into metal networks, the networks of the major metals iron, aluminum, and copper together with those of the eight alloying metals can be categorized into alloyed-, nonalloyed-(i.e., individual), and both mixed. The result shows that most metals are used primarily in alloy form and that functional recycling thereby requires identification, separation, and alloy-specific reprocessing if the physical properties of the alloys are to be retained for subsequent use. The quantified interrelation of metals helps us consider better metal uses and develop a sustainable cycle of metals.

By-product metals are technologically essential but have problematic supply

The growth in technological innovation that has occurred over the past decades has, in part, been possible because an increasing number of metals of the periodic table are used to perform specialized functions. However, there have been increasing concerns regarding the reliability of supply of some of these metals. A main contributor to these concerns is the fact that many of these metals are recovered only as by-products from a limited number of geopolitically concentrated ore deposits, rendering their supplies unable to respond to rapid changes in demand. Companionality is the degree to which a metal is obtained largely or entirely as a by-product of one or more host metals from geologic ores. The dependence of companion metal availability on the production of the host metals introduces a new facet of supply risk to modern technology. We evaluated companionality for 62 different metals and metalloids, and show that 61% (38 of 62) have companionality greater than 50%. Eighteen of the 38-including such technologically essential elements as germanium, terbium, and dysprosium-are further characterized as having geopolitically concentrated production and extremely low rates of end-of-life recycling. It is this subset of companion metals-vital in current technologies such as electronics, solar energy, medical imaging, energy-efficient lighting, and other state-of-the-art products-that may be at the greatest risk of supply constraints in the coming decades.

Criticality of metals and metalloids

Imbalances between metal supply and demand, real or anticipated, have inspired the concept of metal criticality. We here characterize the criticality of 62 metals and metalloids in a 3D "criticality space" consisting of supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Contributing factors that lead to extreme values include high geopolitical concentration of primary production, lack of available suitable substitutes, and political instability. The results show that the limitations for many metals important in emerging electronics (e.g., gallium and selenium) are largely those related to supply risk; those of platinum group metals, gold, and mercury, to environmental implications; and steel alloying elements (e.g., chromium and niobium) as well as elements used in high-temperature alloys (e.g., tungsten and molybdenum), to vulnerability to supply restriction. The metals of most concern tend to be those available largely or entirely as byproducts, used in small quantities for highly specialized applications, and possessing no effective substitutes.

Life cycle assessment of metals: a scientific synthesis

We have assembled extensive information on the cradle-to-gate environmental burdens of 63 metals in their major use forms, and illustrated the interconnectedness of metal production systems. Related cumulative energy use, global warming potential, human health implications and ecosystem damage are estimated by metal life cycle stage (i.e., mining, purification, and refining). For some elements, these are the first life cycle estimates of environmental impacts reported in the literature. We show that, if compared on a per kilogram basis, the platinum group metals and gold display the highest environmental burdens, while many of the major industrial metals (e.g., iron, manganese, titanium) are found at the lower end of the environmental impacts scale. If compared on the basis of their global annual production in 2008, iron and aluminum display the largest impacts, and thallium and tellurium the lowest. With the exception of a few metals, environmental impacts of the majority of elements are dominated by the purification and refining stages in which metals are transformed from a concentrate into their metallic form. Out of the 63 metals investigated, 42 metals are obtained as co-products in multi output processes. We test the sensitivity of varying allocation rationales, in which the environmental burden are allocated to the various metal and mineral products, on the overall results. Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to further investigate the stability of our results. This analysis is the most comprehensive life cycle comparison of metals to date and allows for the first time a complete bottom-up estimate of life cycle impacts of the metals and mining sector globally. We estimate global direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 at 3.4 Gt CO2-eq per year and primary energy use at 49 EJ per year (9.5% of global use), and report the shares for all metals to both impact categories.