Extracting conformational memory from single-molecule kinetic data

Tutorial on how to build non-Markovian dynamic models from molecular dynamics simulations for studying protein conformational changes

Protein conformational changes play crucial roles in their biological functions. In recent years, the Markov State Model (MSM) constructed from extensive Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations has emerged as a powerful tool for modeling complex protein conformational changes. In MSMs, dynamics are modeled as a sequence of Markovian transitions among metastable conformational states at discrete time intervals (called lag time). A major challenge for MSMs is that the lag time must be long enough to allow transitions among states to become memoryless (or Markovian). However, this lag time is constrained by the length of individual MD simulations available to track these transitions. To address this challenge, we have recently developed Generalized Master Equation (GME)-based approaches, encoding non-Markovian dynamics using a time-dependent memory kernel. In this Tutorial, we introduce the theory behind two recently developed GME-based non-Markovian dynamic models: the quasi-Markov State Model (qMSM) and the Integrative Generalized Master Equation (IGME). We subsequently outline the procedures for constructing these models and provide a step-by-step tutorial on applying qMSM and IGME to study two peptide systems: alanine dipeptide and villin headpiece. This Tutorial is available at https://github.com/xuhuihuang/GME_tutorials. The protocols detailed in this Tutorial aim to be accessible for non-experts interested in studying the biomolecular dynamics using these non-Markovian dynamic models.

Integrative generalized master equation: A method to study long-timescale biomolecular dynamics via the integrals of memory kernels

The generalized master equation (GME) provides a powerful approach to study biomolecular dynamics via non-Markovian dynamic models built from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Previously, we have implemented the GME, namely the quasi Markov State Model (qMSM), where we explicitly calculate the memory kernel and propagate dynamics using a discretized GME. qMSM can be constructed with much shorter MD trajectories than the MSM. However, since qMSM needs to explicitly compute the time-dependent memory kernels, it is heavily affected by the numerical fluctuations of simulation data when applied to study biomolecular conformational changes. This can lead to numerical instability of predicted long-time dynamics, greatly limiting the applicability of qMSM in complicated biomolecules. We present a new method, the Integrative GME (IGME), in which we analytically solve the GME under the condition when the memory kernels have decayed to zero. Our IGME overcomes the challenges of the qMSM by using the time integrations of memory kernels, thereby avoiding the numerical instability caused by explicit computation of time-dependent memory kernels. Using our solutions of the GME, we have developed a new approach to compute long-time dynamics based on MD simulations in a numerically stable, accurate and efficient way. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we have applied the IGME in three biomolecules: the alanine dipeptide, FIP35 WW-domain, and Taq RNA polymerase. In each system, the IGME achieves significantly smaller fluctuations for both memory kernels and long-time dynamics compared to the qMSM. We anticipate that the IGME can be widely applied to investigate biomolecular conformational changes.

Single-Molecule Reaction-Diffusion

We propose to capture reaction-diffusion on a molecule-by-molecule basis from the fastest acquirable timescale, namely individual photon arrivals. We illustrate our method on intrinsically disordered human proteins, the linker histone H1.0 as well as its chaperone prothymosin α , as these diffuse through an illuminated confocal spot and interact forming larger ternary complexes on millisecond timescales. Most importantly, single-molecule reaction-diffusion, smRD, reveals single molecule properties without trapping or otherwise confining molecules to surfaces. We achieve smRD within a Bayesian paradigm and term our method Bayes-smRD. Bayes-smRD is further free of the average, bulk, results inherent to the analysis of long photon arrival traces by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. In learning from thousands of photon arrivals continuous spatial positions and discrete conformational and photophysical state changes, Bayes-smRD estimates kinetic parameters on a molecule-by-molecule basis with two to three orders of magnitude less data than tools such as fluorescence correlation spectroscopy thereby also dramatically reducing sample photodamage.

Transcending Markov: non-Markovian rate processes of thermosensitive TRP ion channels

The Markov state model (MSM) is a popular theoretical tool for describing the hierarchy of time scales involved in the function of many proteins especially ion channel gating. An MSM is a particular case of the general non-Markovian model, where the rate of transition from one state to another does not depend on the history of state occupancy within the system, i.e. it only includes reversible, non-dissipative processes. However, an MSM requires knowledge of the precise conformational state of the protein and is not predictive when those details are not known. In the case of ion channels, this simple description fails in real (non-equilibrium) situations, for example when local temperature changes, or when energy losses occur during channel gating. Here, we show it is possible to use non-Markovian equations (i.e. offer a general description that includes the MSM as a particular case) to develop a relatively simple analytical model that describes the non-equilibrium behaviour of the temperature-sensitive transient receptor potential (TRP) ion channels, TRPV1 and TRPM8. This model accurately predicts asymmetrical opening and closing rates, infinite processes and the creation of new states, as well as the effect of temperature changes throughout the process. This approach therefore overcomes the limitations of the MSM and allows us to go beyond a mere phenomenological description of the dynamics of ion channel gating towards a better understanding of the physics underlying these processes.

Memory Unlocks the Future of Biomolecular Dynamics: Transformative Tools to Uncover Physical Insights Accurately and Efficiently

Conformational changes underpin function and encode complex biomolecular mechanisms. Gaining atomic-level detail of how such changes occur has the potential to reveal these mechanisms and is of critical importance in identifying drug targets, facilitating rational drug design, and enabling bioengineering applications. While the past two decades have brought Markov state model techniques to the point where practitioners can regularly use them to glimpse the long-time dynamics of slow conformations in complex systems, many systems are still beyond their reach. In this Perspective, we discuss how including memory (i.e., non-Markovian effects) can reduce the computational cost to predict the long-time dynamics in these complex systems by orders of magnitude and with greater accuracy and resolution than state-of-the-art Markov state models. We illustrate how memory lies at the heart of successful and promising techniques, ranging from the Fokker-Planck and generalized Langevin equations to deep-learning recurrent neural networks and generalized master equations. We delineate how these techniques work, identify insights that they can offer in biomolecular systems, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages in practical settings. We show how generalized master equations can enable the investigation of, for example, the gate-opening process in RNA polymerase II and demonstrate how our recent advances tame the deleterious influence of statistical underconvergence of the molecular dynamics simulations used to parameterize these techniques. This represents a significant leap forward that will enable our memory-based techniques to interrogate systems that are currently beyond the reach of even the best Markov state models. We conclude by discussing some current challenges and future prospects for how exploiting memory will open the door to many exciting opportunities.

Gene expression model inference from snapshot RNA data using Bayesian non-parametrics

Gene expression models, which are key towards understanding cellular regulatory response, underlie observations of single-cell transcriptional dynamics. Although RNA expression data encode information on gene expression models, existing computational frameworks do not perform simultaneous Bayesian inference of gene expression models and parameters from such data. Rather, gene expression models-composed of gene states, their connectivities and associated parameters-are currently deduced by pre-specifying gene state numbers and connectivity before learning associated rate parameters. Here we propose a method to learn full distributions over gene states, state connectivities and associated rate parameters, simultaneously and self-consistently from single-molecule RNA counts. We propagate noise from fluctuating RNA counts over models by treating models themselves as random variables. We achieve this within a Bayesian non-parametric paradigm. We demonstrate our method on the Escherichia coli lacZ pathway and the Saccharomyces cerevisiae STL1 pathway, and verify its robustness on synthetic data.

Learning continuous potentials from smFRET

Potential energy landscapes are useful models in describing events such as protein folding and binding. While single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments encode information on continuous potentials for the system probed, including rarely visited barriers between putative potential minima, this information is rarely decoded from the data. This is because existing analysis methods often model smFRET output assuming, from the onset, that the system probed evolves in a discretized state space to be analyzed within a hidden Markov model (HMM) paradigm. By contrast, here, we infer continuous potentials from smFRET data without discretely approximating the state space. We do so by operating within a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm by placing priors on the family of all possible potential curves. As our inference accounts for a number of required experimental features raising computational cost (such as incorporating discrete photon shot noise), the framework leverages a structured-kernel-interpolation Gaussian process prior to help curtail computational cost. We show that our structured-kernel-interpolation priors for potential energy reconstruction from smFRET analysis accurately infers the potential energy landscape from a smFRET binding experiment. We then illustrate advantages of structured-kernel-interpolation priors for potential energy reconstruction from smFRET over standard HMM approaches by providing information, such as barrier heights and friction coefficients, that is otherwise inaccessible to HMMs.

Single-photon smFRET. I: Theory and conceptual basis

We present a unified conceptual framework and the associated software package for single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) analysis from single-photon arrivals leveraging Bayesian nonparametrics, BNP-FRET. This unified framework addresses the following key physical complexities of a single-photon smFRET experiment, including: 1) fluorophore photophysics; 2) continuous time kinetics of the labeled system with large timescale separations between photophysical phenomena such as excited photophysical state lifetimes and events such as transition between system states; 3) unavoidable detector artefacts; 4) background emissions; 5) unknown number of system states; and 6) both continuous and pulsed illumination. These physical features necessarily demand a novel framework that extends beyond existing tools. In particular, the theory naturally brings us to a hidden Markov model with a second-order structure and Bayesian nonparametrics on account of items 1, 2, and 5 on the list. In the second and third companion articles, we discuss the direct effects of these key complexities on the inference of parameters for continuous and pulsed illumination, respectively.

Single-photon smFRET: II. Application to continuous illumination

Here we adapt the Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) framework presented in the first companion article to analyze kinetics from single-photon, single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) traces generated under continuous illumination. Using our sampler, BNP-FRET, we learn the escape rates and the number of system states given a photon trace. We benchmark our method by analyzing a range of synthetic and experimental data. Particularly, we apply our method to simultaneously learn the number of system states and the corresponding kinetics for intrinsically disordered proteins using two-color FRET under varying chemical conditions. Moreover, using synthetic data, we show that our method can deduce the number of system states even when kinetics occur at timescales of interphoton intervals.

Computational Proposal for Tracking Multiple Molecules in a Multifocus Confocal Setup

Tracking single molecules continues to provide new insights into the fundamental rules governing biological function. Despite continued technical advances in fluorescent and non-fluorescent labeling as well as data analysis, direct observations of trajectories and interactions of multiple molecules in dense environments remain aspirational goals. While confocal methods provide a means to deduce dynamical parameters with high temporal resolution, such as diffusion coefficients, they do so at the expense of spatial resolution. Indeed, on account of a confocal volume's symmetry, typically only distances from the center of the confocal spot can be deduced. Motivated by the need for true three dimensional high speed tracking in densely labeled environments, we propose a computational tool for tracking many fluorescent molecules traversing multiple, closely spaced, confocal measurement volumes providing independent observations. Various realizations of this multiple confocal volumes strategy have previously been used for long term, large area, tracking of one fluorescent molecule in three dimensions. What is more, we achieve tracking by directly using single photon arrival times to inform our likelihood and exploit Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to efficiently sample trajectories from our posterior within a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm. A nonparametric paradigm here is warranted as the number of molecules present are, themselves, a priori unknown. Taken together, we provide a computational framework to infer trajectories of multiple molecules at once, below the diffraction limit (the width of a confocal spot), in three dimensions at sub-millisecond or faster time scales.

Inferring potential landscapes from noisy trajectories of particles within an optical feedback trap

While particle trajectories encode information on their governing potentials, potentials can be challenging to robustly extract from trajectories. Measurement errors may corrupt a particle’s position, and sparse sampling of the potential limits data in higher energy regions such as barriers. We develop a Bayesian method to infer potentials from trajectories corrupted by Markovian measurement noise without assuming prior functional form on the potentials. As an alternative to Gaussian process priors over potentials, we introduce structured kernel interpolation to the Natural Sciences which allows us to extend our analysis to large datasets. Structured-Kernel-Interpolation Priors for Potential Energy Reconstruction (SKIPPER) is validated on 1D and 2D experimental trajectories for particles in a feedback trap.

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A feedback trap was used to generate noisy Langevin microbead trajectories

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The potential energy surface is recovered using a Bayesian formulation

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The formulation uses a structured-kernel-interpolation Gaussian process (SKI-GP) to tractably approximate Gaussian process regression for larger datasets

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Thanks to our adaptation of SKI-GP, we have broadened the use of Gaussian processes for natural science applications

Extraction of rapid kinetics from smFRET measurements using integrative detectors

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are used to learn single-molecule kinetics across a range of experimental techniques. By their construction, HMMs assume that single-molecule events occur on slower timescales than those of data acquisition. To move beyond that HMM limitation and allow for single-molecule events to occur on any timescale, we must treat single-molecule events in continuous time as they occur in nature. We propose a method to learn kinetic rates from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) data collected by integrative detectors, even if those rates exceed data acquisition rates. To achieve that, we exploit our recently proposed "hidden Markov jump process" (HMJP), with which we learn transition kinetics from parallel measurements in donor and acceptor channels. HMJPs generalize the HMM paradigm in two critical ways: (1) they deal with physical smFRET systems as they switch between conformational states in continuous time, and (2) they estimate transition rates between conformational states directly without having recourse to transition probabilities or assuming slow dynamics. Our continuous-time treatment learns the transition kinetics and photon emission rates for dynamic regimes that are inaccessible to HMMs, which treat system kinetics in discrete time. We validate our framework's robustness on simulated data and demonstrate its performance on experimental data from FRET-labeled Holliday junctions.

Inferring effective forces for Langevin dynamics using Gaussian processes

Effective forces derived from experimental or in silico molecular dynamics time traces are critical in developing reduced and computationally efficient descriptions of otherwise complex dynamical problems. This helps motivate why it is important to develop methods to efficiently learn effective forces from time series data. A number of methods already exist to do this when data are plentiful but otherwise fail for sparse datasets or datasets where some regions of phase space are undersampled. In addition, any method developed to learn effective forces from time series data should be minimally a priori committal as to the shape of the effective force profile, exploit every data point without reducing data quality through any form of binning or pre-processing, and provide full credible intervals (error bars) about the prediction for the entirety of the effective force curve. Here, we propose a generalization of the Gaussian process, a key tool in Bayesian nonparametric inference and machine learning, which meets all of the above criteria in learning effective forces for the first time.

Quantitative Kinetic Models from Intravital Microscopy: A Case Study Using Hepatic Transport

The liver performs critical physiological functions, including metabolizing and removing substances, such as toxins and drugs, from the bloodstream. Hepatotoxicity itself is intimately linked to abnormal hepatic transport, and hepatotoxicity remains the primary reason drugs in development fail and approved drugs are withdrawn from the market. For this reason, we propose to analyze, across liver compartments, the transport kinetics of fluorescein-a fluorescent marker used as a proxy for drug molecules-using intravital microscopy data. To resolve the transport kinetics quantitatively from fluorescence data, we account for the effect that different liver compartments (with different chemical properties) have on fluorescein's emission rate. To do so, we develop ordinary differential equation transport models from the data where the kinetics is related to the observable fluorescence levels by "measurement parameters" that vary across different liver compartments. On account of the steep non-linearities in the kinetics and stochasticity inherent to the model, we infer kinetic and measurement parameters by generalizing the method of parameter cascades. For this application, the method of parameter cascades ensures fast and precise parameter estimates from noisy time traces.

Generalized Langevin Equation as a Model for Barrier Crossing Dynamics in Biomolecular Folding

Conformational memory in single-molecule dynamics has attracted recent attention and, in particular, has been invoked as a possible explanation of some of the intriguing properties of transition paths observed in single-molecule force spectroscopy (SMFS) studies. Here we study one candidate for a non-Markovian model that can account for conformational memory, the generalized Langevin equation with a friction force that depends not only on the instantaneous velocity but also on the velocities in the past. The memory in this model is determined by a time-dependent friction memory kernel. We propose a method for extracting this kernel directly from an experimental signal and illustrate its feasibility by applying it to a generalized Rouse model of a SMFS experiment, where the memory kernel is known exactly. Using the same model, we further study how memory affects various statistical properties of transition paths observed in SMFS experiments and evaluate the performance of recent approximate analytical theories of non-Markovian dynamics of barrier crossing. We argue that the same type of analysis can be applied to recent single-molecule observations of transition paths in protein and DNA folding.

Direct Visualization of Barrier Crossing Dynamics in a Driven Optical Matter System

A major impediment to a more complete understanding of barrier crossing and other single-molecule processes is the inability to directly visualize the trajectories and dynamics of atoms and molecules in reactions. Rather, the kinetics are inferred from ensemble measurements or the position of a transducer ( e. g., an AFM cantilever) as a surrogate variable. Direct visualization is highly desirable. Here, we achieve the direct measurement of barrier crossing trajectories by using optical microscopy to observe position and orientation changes of pairs of Ag nanoparticles, i. e. passing events, in an optical ring trap. A two-step mechanism similar to a bimolecular exchange reaction or the Michaelis-Menten scheme is revealed by analysis that combines detailed knowledge of each trajectory, a statistically significant number of repetitions of the passing events, and the driving force dependence of the process. We find that while the total event rate increases with driving force, this increase is due to an increase in the rate of encounters. There is no drive force dependence on the rate of barrier crossing because the key motion for the process involves a random (thermal) radial fluctuation of one particle allowing the other to pass. This simple experiment can readily be extended to study more complex barrier crossing processes by replacing the spherical metal nanoparticles with anisotropic ones or by creating more intricate optical trapping potentials.

Generic Schemes for Single-Molecule Kinetics. 3: Self-Consistent Pathway Solutions for Nonrenewal Processes

We recently developed a pathway analysis framework (paper 1) for describing single-molecule kinetics for renewal (i.e., memoryless) processes based on the decomposition of a kinetic scheme into generic structures. In our approach, waiting time distribution functions corresponding to such structures are expressed in terms of self-consistent pathway solutions and concatenated to form measurable probability distribution functions (PDFs), affording a simple way to decompose and recombine a network. Here, we extend this framework to nonrenewal processes, which involve correlations between events, and employ it to formulate waiting time PDFs, including the first-passage time PDF, for a general kinetic network model. Our technique does not require the assumption of Poissonian kinetics, permitting a more general kinetic description than the usual rate approach, with minimal topological restrictiveness. To demonstrate the usefulness of this technique, we provide explicit calculations for our general model, which we adapt to two generic schemes for single-enzyme turnover with conformational interconversion. For each generic scheme, wherein the intermediate state(s) need not undergo Poissonian decay, the functional dependence of the mean first-passage time on the concentration of an external substrate is analyzed. When conformational detailed balance is satisfied, the enzyme turnover rate (related to the mean first-passage time) reduces to the celebrated Michaelis-Menten functional form, consistent with our previous work involving a similar scheme with all rate processes, thereby establishing further generality to this intriguing result. Our framework affords a general and intuitive approach for evaluating measurable waiting time PDFs and their moments, making it a potentially useful kinetic tool for a wide variety of single-molecule processes.

Single-Molecule Test for Markovianity of the Dynamics along a Reaction Coordinate

In an effort to answer the much-debated question of whether the time evolution of common experimental observables can be described as one-dimensional diffusion in the potential of mean force, we propose a simple criterion that allows one to test whether the Markov assumption is applicable to a single-molecule trajectory x( t). This test does not involve fitting of the data to any presupposed model and can be applied to experimental data with relatively low temporal resolution.

Directly measuring single-molecule heterogeneity using force spectroscopy

One of the most intriguing results of single-molecule experiments on proteins and nucleic acids is the discovery of functional heterogeneity: the observation that complex cellular machines exhibit multiple, biologically active conformations. The structural differences between these conformations may be subtle, but each distinct state can be remarkably long-lived, with interconversions between states occurring only at macroscopic timescales, fractions of a second or longer. Although we now have proof of functional heterogeneity in a handful of systems-enzymes, motors, adhesion complexes-identifying and measuring it remains a formidable challenge. Here, we show that evidence of this phenomenon is more widespread than previously known, encoded in data collected from some of the most well-established single-molecule techniques: atomic force microscopy or optical tweezer pulling experiments. We present a theoretical procedure for analyzing distributions of rupture/unfolding forces recorded at different pulling speeds. This results in a single parameter, quantifying the degree of heterogeneity, and also leads to bounds on the equilibration and conformational interconversion timescales. Surveying 10 published datasets, we find heterogeneity in 5 of them, all with interconversion rates slower than 10 s(-1) Moreover, we identify two systems where additional data at realizable pulling velocities is likely to find a theoretically predicted, but so far unobserved crossover regime between heterogeneous and nonheterogeneous behavior. The significance of this regime is that it will allow far more precise estimates of the slow conformational switching times, one of the least understood aspects of functional heterogeneity.

Extracting conformational information from single molecule photon statistics

In this paper, we describe the approach of resonant trajectories of photon emission (Traj〈N〉 and TrajQ) in the conformational coordinate X and external field frequency ωL space to extract the conformational information of single molecule. The Smoluchowski equation is employed to describe the conformational dynamics of the single molecule in complex environments. This approach is applied to single Thioflavin T (ThT) molecule, and our results are in excellent agreement with the results of ab initio simulations.

Inferring Latent States and Refining Force Estimates via Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Modeling in Single Particle Tracking Experiments

Understanding the basis for intracellular motion is critical as the field moves toward a deeper understanding of the relation between Brownian forces, molecular crowding, and anisotropic (or isotropic) energetic forcing. Effective forces and other parameters used to summarize molecular motion change over time in live cells due to latent state changes, e.g., changes induced by dynamic micro-environments, photobleaching, and other heterogeneity inherent in biological processes. This study discusses limitations in currently popular analysis methods (e.g., mean square displacement-based analyses) and how new techniques can be used to systematically analyze Single Particle Tracking (SPT) data experiencing abrupt state changes in time or space. The approach is to track GFP tagged chromatids in metaphase in live yeast cells and quantitatively probe the effective forces resulting from dynamic interactions that reflect the sum of a number of physical phenomena. State changes can be induced by various sources including: microtubule dynamics exerting force through the centromere, thermal polymer fluctuations, and DNA-based molecular machines including polymerases and protein exchange complexes such as chaperones and chromatin remodeling complexes. Simulations aiming to show the relevance of the approach to more general SPT data analyses are also studied. Refined force estimates are obtained by adopting and modifying a nonparametric Bayesian modeling technique, the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS), for SPT applications. The HDP-SLDS method shows promise in systematically identifying dynamical regime changes induced by unobserved state changes when the number of underlying states is unknown in advance (a common problem in SPT applications). We expand on the relevance of the HDP-SLDS approach, review the relevant background of Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes, show how to map discrete time HDP-SLDS models to classic SPT models, and discuss limitations of the approach. In addition, we demonstrate new computational techniques for tuning hyperparameters and for checking the statistical consistency of model assumptions directly against individual experimental trajectories; the techniques circumvent the need for "ground-truth" and/or subjective information.

Error-based extraction of states and energy landscapes from experimental single-molecule time-series

Characterization of states, the essential components of the underlying energy landscapes, is one of the most intriguing subjects in single-molecule (SM) experiments due to the existence of noise inherent to the measurements. Here we present a method to extract the underlying state sequences from experimental SM time-series. Taking into account empirical error and the finite sampling of the time-series, the method extracts a steady-state network which provides an approximation of the underlying effective free energy landscape. The core of the method is the application of rate-distortion theory from information theory, allowing the individual data points to be assigned to multiple states simultaneously. We demonstrate the method's proficiency in its application to simulated trajectories as well as to experimental SM fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) trajectories obtained from isolated agonist binding domains of the AMPA receptor, an ionotropic glutamate receptor that is prevalent in the central nervous system.

Data-driven techniques for detecting dynamical state changes in noisily measured 3D single-molecule trajectories

Optical microscopes and nanoscale probes (AFM, optical tweezers, etc.) afford researchers tools capable of quantitatively exploring how molecules interact with one another in live cells. The analysis of in vivo single-molecule experimental data faces numerous challenges due to the complex, crowded, and time changing environments associated with live cells. Fluctuations and spatially varying systematic forces experienced by molecules change over time; these changes are obscured by "measurement noise" introduced by the experimental probe monitoring the system. In this article, we demonstrate how the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS) of Fox et al. [IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 59] can be used to detect both subtle and abrupt state changes in time series containing "thermal" and "measurement" noise. The approach accounts for temporal dependencies induced by random and "systematic overdamped" forces. The technique does not require one to subjectively select the number of "hidden states" underlying a trajectory in an a priori fashion. The number of hidden states is simultaneously inferred along with change points and parameters characterizing molecular motion in a data-driven fashion. We use large scale simulations to study and compare the new approach to state-of-the-art Hidden Markov Modeling techniques. Simulations mimicking single particle tracking (SPT) experiments are the focus of this study.

Single molecule conformational memory extraction: p5ab RNA hairpin

Extracting kinetic models from single molecule data is an important route to mechanistic insight in biophysics, chemistry, and biology. Data collected from force spectroscopy can probe discrete hops of a single molecule between different conformational states. Model extraction from such data is a challenging inverse problem because single molecule data are noisy and rich in structure. Standard modeling methods normally assume (i) a prespecified number of discrete states and (ii) that transitions between states are Markovian. The data set is then fit to this predetermined model to find a handful of rates describing the transitions between states. We show that it is unnecessary to assume either (i) or (ii) and focus our analysis on the zipping/unzipping transitions of an RNA hairpin. The key is in starting with a very broad class of non-Markov models in order to let the data guide us toward the best model from this very broad class. Our method suggests that there exists a folding intermediate for the P5ab RNA hairpin whose zipping/unzipping is monitored by force spectroscopy experiments. This intermediate would not have been resolved if a Markov model had been assumed from the onset. We compare the merits of our method with those of others.

Aggregated markov model using time series of single molecule dwell times with minimum excessive information

Statistics of the dwell times, the stationary state distributions (SSDs), are often studied to infer the underlying kinetics from a single molecule finite-level time series. However, it is well known that the underlying kinetic scheme, a hidden Markov model (HMM), cannot be identified uniquely from the SSDs because some features of the underlying HMM are hidden by finite-level measurements. Here, we quantify the amount of excessive information in a given HMM that is not warranted by the measured SSDs and extract the HMM with minimum excessive information as the most objective representation of the data. The method is applied to a single molecule enzymatic turnover experiment, and the origin of dynamic disorder is discussed in terms of the network properties of the HMM.