Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: a cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden

Development of a risk assessment tool for Japanese sex offenders: The Japanese Static-99

In Japan, sexual offending, especially paraphilic sexual offending, has become a major problem, and approximately 3000 people are arrested for frotteuristic and voyeuristic behavior each year. Considering the repetitive nature of such behaviors, determining the recidivism risk is imperative. Globally, Static-99 is one of the most widely used actuarial risk assessment tools to predict recidivism among sex offenders. However, sexual offending is largely influenced by social and cultural backgrounds, and whether risk factors identified in the West are applicable to other countries is unknown. Therefore, we developed a Japanese version of the Static-99 and examined its reliability and validity with 167 Japanese paraphilic sex offenders. The results showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient = 0.88) and predictive accuracy (area under the curve = 0.76). The results indicate that the Japanese Static-99 can be used with Japanese sex offenders. Moreover, risk factors identified in the Western context are applicable to Japanese sex offenders despite the different nature and manifestations of their offending.

Onset Crime Typology of Sexual Offenders and Their Differences on Specialization and Risk Factors

In those theories or empirical-evident model of sexual offending, they all recognized which major life event would cause the sex offense in some conditions, therefore the onset crime of sexual offenders were not only a mark of personal history, but also could reflect the heterogeneity of sexual offenders. Our purpose is to study the onset crime typology of sexual offender and their difference in specialization, problem of psychology marks, and negative developmental experiences. We analyzed the pre-conviction data from 3,750 sexual offenders and their risk assessment data. The research results found that onset typology of sex crime would persist their criminal career into sexual offending, and through the group comparisons, the study pointed out differences in risk factors domain and adverse development experiences. We also discussed those research results and their meaning of risk management.

Older Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses: A Literature Review

The population of older individuals convicted of sexual offenses (OSOs) is rapidly increasing. However, we have little understanding of their characteristics (e.g., demographic, psychological, individual, offense, and risk) and needs. To identify any similarities or differences that are unique to older individuals convicted of sexual offending, it is important to compare such characteristics across the adult lifespan. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review was to specify and synthesize the current knowledge of characteristics across the adult lifespan of the population of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Five databases were searched and 10,680 results were screened, resulting in 100 studies included in the final review. The findings were grouped into four emergent themes: age of onset and prevalence; offender and offense characteristics; age and the risk of reoffending; and treatment. Implications of the findings from this review are discussed in relation to future research and clinical practice.

Interrater Reliability and Concurrent Validity of the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol for Korean Sexual Offenders: A Field Study

The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) is a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for conducting management-oriented sexual violence risk assessments. We investigated the interrater reliability (IRR) and the concurrent validity of the RSVP in the Republic of Korea. A total of 32 experienced and specially trained correctional psychologists in teams of four used an authorized translation of the RSVP to independently assess 47 adult male sexual offenders through a case history review and interviews. IRR, as indexed using intraclass correlations coefficients, was typically good to excellent for rating the presence and relevance of risk factors. Concurrent validity was also good, as indexed by correlations between RSVP ratings and total scores on two instruments for assessing risk for sexual violence: the Hallym Assessment Guide for Sex Offender Risk and Static-99R. Implications for the use of the RSVP by professionals and agencies, both within and outside Korea, are discussed.

Testing the Static-99R as a Global Screen for Risk of Sex Crime Recidivism in a Norwegian Routine Sample

The Static-99R has been recommended for use as a first global screen for sorting out sex-convicted persons who are in need of further risk assessment. This study investigated the Static-99R's predictive validity based on a nonselected Norwegian sample (n = 858) of persons released from prison after having served a sex crime sentence. After a mean observation period of 2,183 days, 3.4% (n = 29) had recidivated to a new sex offense. A higher number of recidivists were found among those with higher Static-99R total scores. The predictive contribution from each of the ten Static-99R risk items was investigated using standard logistic regression, proportional hazard regression, and random forest classification algorithm. The overall results indicate that the Static-99R is relevant as a risk screen in a Norwegian context, providing similar results concerning predictive accuracy as previous studies.

A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

'The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70-0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14-1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument's norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators' workbook should be used.

The relevance of sexual biographies in individuals convicted of child sexual abuse offenses for the development of pedosexual interests and sexual recidivism

In the literature concerning the etiology of pedosexual interests, the potential role of early sexual experiences in childhood and adolescence has been discussed. Several studies demonstrated a link between own sexually abusive experiences in childhood and sexual offending later in life which tends to be even stronger for pedosexual offenders. Furthermore, some findings indicate associations between other developmental factors and deviant sexual interests in adulthood. For the present study, sexual biographical data of N = 223 imprisoned men convicted of sexual offenses against children from Austria was analyzed to retrospectively examine whether own sexually abusive experiences and non-abusive forms of early sexual experiences and behaviors are linked to subsequent pedosexual interests and to sexual recidivism. Previous findings concerning the link between own sexually abusive experiences during childhood and subsequent pedosexual interests could partly be replicated. Furthermore, early masturbation behavior characteristics as well as non-abusive prepubescent sexual experiences were linked to indicators of pedosexual interests and also to sexual recidivism. Exclusively pedophilic men showed the strongest accumulation of early sexual experiences and behaviors. Implications of the findings for theory and risk assessment are discussed.

The Predictive Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and Static-2002/R: Which One to Use?

The use of Static tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002, and Static-2002R) in risk decision making involving sexual offenders is widespread internationally. This study compared the predictive accuracy and incremental validity of four Static risk measures in a sample of 621 Australian sexual offenders. Results indicated that approximately 45% of the sample recidivated (with 18.8% committing sexual offenses). All of the Static measures investigated yielded moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, which was comparable with other Australian and overseas studies. Area under the curve (AUC) values for the four measures across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals ranged from .67 to .69. All of the Static measures discriminated quite well between low-risk and high-risk sexual offenders but less well for the moderate risk categories. When pitted together, none of the tools accounted for additional variance in sexual recidivism, above and beyond what the other measures accounted for. The overall results provide support for the use of Static measures as a component of risk assessment and decision making with Australian sexual offending populations. The limitations of this study and recommendations for further research are also discussed.

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: Validity and Dimensional Structure of the Stable-2007

In this study, the predictive and incremental validity of the Stable-2007 beyond the Static-99 was evaluated in an updated sample of N = 638 adult male sexual offenders followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design. Scores and risk categories of the Static-99 (AUC = .721; p < .001) and of the Stable-2007 (AUC = .623, p = .005) were found to be significantly related to sexual recidivism. The Stable-2007 risk categories contributed incrementally to the prediction of sexual recidivism beyond the Static-99. Analyzing the dimensional structure of the Stable-2007 yielded three factors, named Antisociality, Sexual Deviance, and Hypersexuality. Antisociality and Sexual Deviance were significant predictors for sexual recidivism. Sexual Deviance was negatively associated with non-sexual violent recidivism. Comparisons with latent dimensions of other risk assessment instruments are made and implications for applied risk assessment are discussed.

Psychological and Legal Aspects of Dangerous Sex Offenders: A Review of the Literature

The purpose of this article is to review legislation on 'dangerous sex offenders' critically. Most modern legislation determines an individual to be 'dangerous' if he or she is at unacceptably high risk of committing further sexual violence. While the decision is judicial in practice, clinical testimony is utilised to inform courts' decision-making. Dangerousness may be a normative (legal) construct, but it is reliant on clinical assessment. Offenders are not at risk only due to historical factors; the possibility of committing sexual violence in the future is likely affected by temporal factors such as response to therapy, substance misuse, and proximity to victims. It is not clear that mental illness would place an offender at risk, although certain personality disorders are considered to be risk factors. In reporting actual risk, clinicians need to consider a range of variables, and not exclusively use actuarial measures or unstructured clinical interviews.

Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abusers Working With Children

Child sexual abuse occurring in a child- or youth-serving institution or organization has attracted great public and scientific attention. In light of the particular personal and offense-related characteristics of men who have abused children within such an institution or organization, it is of special importance to evaluate the predictive performance of currently applied risk assessment instruments in this offender population. Therefore, the present study assessed the risk ratings and predictive performance of four risk assessment instruments and one instrument assessing protective factors concerning any, violent and sexual recidivism in child sexual abusers working with children (CSA-W) in comparison with extra-familial child sexual abusers (CSA-E) and intra-familial child sexual abusers (CSA-I). The results indicate that CSA-W mostly recidivate with a sexual offense. Although all included risk measures seem to function with CSA-W, the Static-99 seems to be the instrument that performs best in predicting sexual recidivism in CSA-W. CSA-W had the most protective factors measured with the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors (SAPROF). While the SAPROF could not predict desistance from recidivism in CSA-W, it predicted desistance from any recidivism in all CSA. As CSA-W frequently hold many indicators for pedophilic sexual interests but only a few for antisocial tendencies, it can be suggested that CSA-W are at an increased risk for sexual recidivism and thus risk measures especially designed for sexual recidivism work best in CSA-W. Nevertheless, CSA-W also hold many protective factors; however, their impact on CSA-W is not clear yet and needs further study.

A Literature Review of the Utility of Selected Violence and Sexual Violence Risk Assessment Instruments

The rationale for this article is to comprehensively outline and describe the strengths and weaknesses of various risk assessment instruments/tools relevant to the evaluation of sexually violent and violent offenders. The author will briefly discuss ethical obligations the forensic mental health professional (FMHP) must consider when conducting risk assessments.

A systematic review of age, sex, ethnicity, and race as predictors of violent recidivism

Recidivism of released prisoners, especially violent recidivism, is an important policy issue. Equally important is an understanding of how demographic risk factors may act as moderators of recidivism. Knowledge of such relationships is important in developing a deeper theoretical understanding of the risk of recidivism as well as identifying points of intervention that may need to be re-oriented to reduce recidivism. The present study conducts a meta-analytic review of the violent recidivism literature focusing on the role of several demographic risk factors. Findings show that age, sex, and race (Whites) were significantly related to violent recidivism. Implications and directions for future research are identified.

A multimodal examination of sexual interest in children: a comparison of sex offenders and nonsex offenders

Research and theoretical models have consistently identified sexual interest in children as a key factor involved in child sexual offending. However, there is only moderate agreement in the diagnosis of pedophilia and different assessment methods identify different offenders as pedophiles. The current study examined the discriminative and convergent validity of three different measures of sexual interest in children. Participants included sex offenders and nonsex offenders recruited from federal prisons (i.e., offenders serving sentences of more than 2 years) in Ontario, Canada. Child molesters' responses (n = 35) were not significantly different from nonsex offenders (n = 21) on an implicit measure of sexual interest in children (Sexual Attraction to Children Implicit Association Test [SAC-IAT] d = 0.44, 95% CI [-0.11, 0.99]), but differed on the self-report (Sexual Interest Profiling System; d = 0.83, 95% CI [0.27, 1.39]) and viewing time (d = 1.15, 95% CI [0.54, 1.75]) measures. Findings did not provide clear support for the superiority of a multimodal approach, possibly due to the relatively small sample. More often than not, convergence between the three measures was observed (n = 74). Findings from the present study are an important step toward understanding the relationship between different measures of sexual interest in children and establishing their validity.

Does volunteering for sex offender treatment matter? Using propensity score analysis to understand the effects of volunteerism and treatment on recidivism

A common critique of program evaluations of prison-based sex offender treatment holds that the samples inherently show selection bias because the participants typically volunteer for treatment. To address this critique, we used propensity score analysis to assess the influence of volunteerism on treatment effects. We examined recidivism outcomes for a sample of participants who volunteered for treatment, of whom some participated in treatment (n = 161) and some did not (n = 282) and compared these outcomes to the recidivism rate of a matched sample of nonvolunteers for treatment (n = 443). The primary finding is that offenders who volunteered for treatment did not demonstrate any differences in recidivism rates when matched with and compared to inmates who did not volunteer to participate in treatment. Furthermore, our results revealed that there were a number of significant differences between unmatched volunteers and unmatched nonvolunteers, perhaps most importantly in their risk for future recidivism as measured by the STATIC-99 risk assessment. We discuss study strengths and limitations and present the implications of the findings for policy, practice, and research.

Predicting relapse for Catholic clergy sex offenders: the use of the static-99

The Static-99 is an instrument commonly used to measure the likelihood of recidivism among sex offenders. The current study explores whether the Static-99 is an effective predictor of relapse among Catholic clergy who have had sexual contact with minors. Static-99 scores were compiled for 337 treated clergy who had offended against minors, including 21 who were known to have relapsed after treatment. Clergy were followed up for 5 to 25 years posttreatment (M = 16.05; SD = 5.12) after their completion of treatment. Post release, they were closely supervised, with explicit rules limiting their contacts with minors and church officials monitoring their compliance with posttreatment plans. Descriptive information on the victims of clergy sex offenders is provided. Although all clergy offenders had the same score on 4 of the 10 Static-99 items, Static-99 total scores still significantly predicted relapse with a moderate to large effect size (area under the curve [AUC] = .672; Cohen's d = .808). Predictive accuracy of each item is also reported. Issues concerning the use of the Static-99 with this population are discussed.

The utility of risk assessment instruments for the prediction of recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators

To examine the predictive accuracy of four well established risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, and Static-99) in an important subgroup of sexual offenders, these instruments were assessed retrospectively based on information from forensic psychiatric court reports in a sample of 90 released male sexual homicide offenders (out of an original sample of 166) in Germany. Follow-up information about criminal reconvictions after release were obtained from the federal criminal records. Total scores as well as subscales and single items of these risk assessment instruments did not predict sexual recidivism, and only some of them had moderate predictive power regarding nonsexual violent recidivism. Possible explanations for these unexpected results are the retrospective study design with missing information about influences during the long duration of detention and time after release, the small sample size as well as the possibility that the risk assessment instruments investigated were valid for general sex offender samples, but not for the particular subgroup of offenders with sexually motivated homicides.

Predicting reoffense for community-based sexual offenders: an analysis of 30 years of data

This study contributes to the area of risk prediction by exploring whether the Static-99R is useful for predicting reoffense in community-based samples, and for noncontact offenders with and without identified victims. A total of 744 participants drawn from an outpatient sex offender treatment program in a large metropolitan area were followed for a period of up to 30 years. Multiple Cox Regressions were run; covariates included length of treatment, status in treatment, Static-99R items, and number of technical probation violations. Overall, reoffending was an infrequent occurrence in this sample regardless of how it was defined, with sexual reoffenses identified in 13% of the sample and any criminal reoffense identified in 20% of the sample. Consistent with previous research, the Static-99R was a better predictor of sex-related reoffenses than of nonsexual reoffenses. However, in no case were more than a couple of the items significantly related to reoffending and these items differed depending on reoffense definition.

Dynamic risk assessment in sexual offenders using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007: an investigation of predictive and incremental validity

The predictive accuracy of STABLE-2000 and STABLE-2007 was examined within a prospective research design in a German-speaking sample of 263 adult male prison-released sexual offenders followed up for an average of 6.4 years. The STABLE-2007 was significantly related to all outcomes (AUC = 0.67-0.71), whereas the STABLE-2000 demonstrated only weak predictive accuracy for sexual reoffense (AUC = 0.62). Supporting the results of the construction sample, the STABLE-2007 incrementally added to the predictive accuracy of the STATIC-99 for violent and general reoffense (conviction and incarceration). Moreover, the STABLE-2007 total scores and the nominal risk/need categories made significant incremental contributions over the SORAG for predicting sexual reoffense.

Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes

This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

Accuracy of the static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument. Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95%. This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland. The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments. Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records. The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = .758) among our population. The results are discussed on the basis of the literature.

Long-term predictive validity of the risk matrix 2000: a comparison with the static-99 and the sex offender risk appraisal guide

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive accuracy of the Risk Matrix 2000 on an independent sample of 351 sexual offenders, followed in the community for an average duration of 11.4 years (range 0-20 years, SD = 4.4 years). For comparison purposes, this study also examines the predictive accuracy of two other risk assessment instruments, specifically modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). Results indicate that the Risk Matrix 2000 demonstrates convergent validity by correlating with the other risk assessment instruments. Moreover, the Risk Matrix 2000 is predictive of recidivism above chance levels, exhibiting medium to large effect sizes, although in general, the other two instruments, particularly the SORAG, are superior. Results also indicate differences in predictive validity when comparing 2-year, 5-year, and variable follow-up periods. Finally, a cumulative meta-analysis compares and integrates current findings with those obtained from the accumulation of previous studies, and new cumulative estimates are provided.

Sex Offender Civil Commitment: Recommedations for Empirically Guided Evaluations

Evaluations of sex offenders in the context of civil commitment occur both pre- and post-commitment. Pre-commitment evaluations must address the relevant prongs of the state's civil commitment statute including the presence of a mental disorder or abnormality, likelihood of future sexual violence, and the volitional link between the two. Post-commitment evaluations must assess treatment progress and readiness for release. A thorough understanding of assessment and diagnostic issues relating to sexual offender civil commitment are essential in conducting both pre- and post-commitment evaluations. The high stakes nature of sex offender civil commitment demands rigorous and empirically based evaluations.

Drug consumption among sexual offenders against females

This article aims to evaluate the role of drug consumption among sexual offenders against females. Three groups of participants (N = 133) comprising sexual offenders against girls, pubertal females, and women were examined with reference to history of drug and/or alcohol use, impulsivity level, sexual addiction, and recidivism risk. Sexual offenders against women were found to have significantly more difficulties with drug use, higher impulsivity level, and to be younger than the sexual offenders against girls and pubertal females. The combination of drug consumption and higher level of impulsivity may contribute to sexual aggression against adult females.

Criminal recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators

Forensic psychiatric reports on 166 sexual homicide perpetrators in Germany were retrospectively analyzed for criminal risk factors. Follow-up information about release and reconvictions from federal criminal records was available for 139 offenders; 90 (64.7%) had been released. The estimated recidivism rate (Kaplan-Meier analyses) for 20 years at risk was 23.1% for sexual and 18.3% for nonsexual violent reoffences. Three men (3.3%) were reconvicted for attempted or completed homicide. Only young age at the time of sexual homicide resulted in higher sexual recidivism, whereas increased nonsexual violent recidivism was related to previous sexual and nonsexual delinquency, psychopathic symptoms, and higher scores in risk assessment instruments. Increased recidivism with any violent reoffence was associated with age-related factors: young age at first sexual offence, at homicide, and at release and duration of detention. The impacts of the results for risk assessment, relapse prevention, and supervision are discussed.

Psychometric assessment of dynamic risk factors for child molesters

To explore the relationship between dynamic risk factors and recidivism in child molesters, we studied a sample of men (N=495) who completed an intensive, prison-based treatment program in New Zealand. During the follow-up period (M=5.8 years), 9.9% were reconvicted for a sexual offense. A self-report psychometric battery was administered at pre-treatment that assessed a range of variables related to sexual attitudes and beliefs, emotional functioning, and interpersonal competency. Factor analysis showed that individual differences in the battery could be described by four dimensions-Social Inadequacy, Sexual Interests, Anger/Hostility, and Pro-Offending Attitudes. Factor scores for each dimension were significantly correlated with sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses confirmed that the Sexual Interests and Pro-Offending Attitudes factor scores, as well as an Overall Deviance score which combined the dimensions, provided significant additional validity for predicting recidivism beyond the Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton Law and Human Behavior 24:119-136, 2000). When added to the Static-99, the Overall Deviance score increased the area under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.72 to 0.81. These results show that psychometric self-reports can provide valid measures of dynamic risk factors, and that inclusion of such measures can improve risk prediction beyond that achievable by static factors alone.

Unguided clinical and actuarial assessment of re-offending risk: a direct comparison with sex offenders in Denmark

Meta-analyses suggest that actuarial risk assessments outperform unguided clinical judgment for prediction of recidivism in criminal offenders. However, there is a lack of direct comparisons of the predictive accuracy of clinical judgment and actuarial risk scales for sexual offenders. We followed up 121 male sex offenders (> or =18 years) subjected to pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in Denmark in 1978-1992 (mean post-detainment time = 16.4 years) to compare the predictive validity of unstructured clinical judgment of recidivism risk with that of the well-established Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton, Law and Human Behavior 24:119-136, 2000) and an extension of the Static-99, the Static-2002 (Hanson and Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Rep. No. 2003-01), Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 2003). The predictive accuracy of unguided judgment did not exceed chance for any sexual, severe sexual or any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reconviction (AUCs of the ROC curve = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.41-0.63; 0.50, 95%CI = 0.34-0.67; and 0.57, 95%CI = 0.40-0.73, respectively). In contrast, all three outcomes were predicted significantly better than chance by the Static-99 (AUC = 0.62, 95%CI = 0.52-0.72; 0.72, 95%CI = 0.59-0.84; and 0.71, 95%CI = 0.56-0.86) and the Static-2002 (AUC = 0.67, 95%CI = 0.57-0.77; 0.69, 95%CI = 0.56-0.83; and 0.70, 95%CI = 0.55-0.86). Static-99 outperformed clinical judgment for sexual recidivision (chi(2) = 5.11, df = 1, p < .05). The Static-2002 was significantly more accurate for the prediction of any sexual recidivism as compared to unguided clinical judgment but its advantage fell just short of statistical significance for severe sexual recidivism (chi(2) = 3.56, df = 1, p = 0.06). When tested for recidivism within 2 years, none of the three prediction methods yielded results significantly better than chance for any outcome. This direct trial of the unguided clinical method argues against its continued use for risk assessment of sexual offenders.

[Evaluation of risk assessment instruments for sex offenders]

In order to evaluate risk assessment instruments for sex offenders in Germany, we compared the predictive validity of the Static-99, HCR-20, SVR-20, and PCL-R scales for 134 sex offenders. The mean follow-up time was 9 years (range 1-340 months), using the first entry into the National Register of Criminal Convictions as endpoint variable. For the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was calculated. The AUC plots accurately identified violent or sexual recidivists and "false positives" at all scale levels. Comparing the predictive validity of these four instruments, the results favored Static-99. As for the limited sample size, differences between the assessment instruments were, however, not statistically significant. The ROC analysis for Static-99 showed that including treatment dropouts does not improve predictive accuracy (including dropouts: AUC 0.710; excluding dropouts: AUC 0.721). Kaplan-Meier survival analyses yielded highly a significant correlation to recidivism time point for two Static-99 and SVR-20 risk categories. Higher-risk categories were related to earlier recidivism. However, relying on the Static-99 and SVR-20 alone showed false positive results: for up to two out of three sex offenders, they predicted recidivism which did not occur.

The self-regulation model of sexual offending: the relationship between offence pathways and static and dynamic sexual offence risk

T. Ward and S. M. Hudson (1998) have proposed a self-regulation model of the offence process which is specific to sexual offenders and which attempts to account for the deficiencies in the traditional relapse prevention model as applied to this group of offenders. The self-regulation model is a nine-stage process of offending that addresses both the individual's goals with respect to the offending behavior (approach versus avoidance) and the manner in which the individual attempts to achieve these goals (passive versus active), resulting in four hypothesized pathways that lead to sexual offending. The present study evaluated the validity of this model with a sample of adult male sexual offenders (N=80) treated within the Correctional Service of Canada. Results demonstrated support for the self-regulation model. Specifically, it was found that the four pathways contained in this model were differentially associated with offender types (e.g., incest offender, rapist, extrafamilial child molester, etc.). In addition, static and dynamic risk factors were found to vary among the four pathways in predicted directions and are consistent with the theoretical model. Finally, static and dynamic risk factors differentially predicted pathway membership, again in the expected directions. Implications of findings and the self-regulation model for the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders are discussed.

Risk factors for criminal recidivism in older sexual offenders

Sexual offenders constitute a substantial proportion of the older male prison population. Recent research findings, with potential consequences for risk management, indicate that recidivism risk might be lower in older sexual offenders. We followed up all adult male sexual offenders released from prison in Sweden during 1993-1997 (N=1,303) for criminal reconviction for an average of 8.9 years. We studied rates of repeat offending (sexual and any violent) by four age bands (<25, 25-39, 40-54, and 55+years), and examined whether risk factors for recidivism remained stable across age groups. Results showed that recidivism rates decreased significantly in older age bands. In addition, the effect of certain risk factors varied by age band. These findings on recidivism rates in older sexual offenders concur with studies from the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada and may suggest some generalizability in Western settings. Further research is needed to address underlying mechanisms.

Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility

This study evaluated the convergent and predictive validity of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999, 2000) among 147 male sex offenders committed to a high-security hospital in Belgium (Centre de Défense Sociale "Les Marronniers"). Of the sample, 63.8% were child abusers (victims under 14 years of age), 24.6% were rapists (victims aged 14 years or more), and 11.5% were mixed-victim offenders (victims less than 14 years of age and victims aged 14 years or more). After an average follow-up period of 4.2 years (SD = 3.4 years), the sexual recidivism rate was 25.2%, the violent recidivism rate was 17.1%, and the general (any) recidivism rate was 33.1%. The SORAG and the Static-99 were moderately correlated with each other (r = .55), and both showed strong predictive validity for general and violent recidivism (ROC AUC's ranging from .68 to .72 for the total sample). Both instruments showed moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism (AUC of .64 for SORAG and .66 for Static-99).

Exploring the possibility of risk assessment of Japanese sexual offenders using Static-99

BACKGROUND

The number of sexual offences reported in Japan doubled between 1992 and 2002. This has prompted attention to assessment of risk of recidivism.

AIMS

To explore whether an actuarial assessment of risk widely used in the West can be meaningfully applied to Japanese men serving a prison sentence for sexual offences.

METHOD

All sex offenders incarcerated in Kitakyushu Medical Prison in Fukuoka at any time in a period of one year (1 July 2002-30 June 2003) were identified. Demographic data, characteristics of offences and the Static-99 were rated from records.

RESULTS

Following a slightly modified application of coding rules, all items of the Static-99 were rateable. Nine offenders of 45 whose Static-99 score was over 6 were thus identified as high-risk offenders. The items distinguishing apparently high-risk men were history of institutionalization as a delinquent and mental retardation.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The Static-99 may be a useful tool in assessing sex offenders in Japan. With apparently increasing recognition of sex crimes here, it seems timely to be developing a systematic approach to assessment. Further work is required to test its value in practice as a predictor of recidivism.

The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism.

Sexually violent predator evaluations: empirical evidence, strategies for professionals, and research directions

Several states have passed civil commitment laws that allow the precautionary detention of sex offenders who have completed their criminal sentences. Over 2,500 sex offenders have been committed across states with such statutes and several thousand more sex offenders have been evaluated. Most statutes call for an evaluation of risk by a mental health professional and, although each state statute is worded differently, three main elements common to sexually violent predator evaluations are used to guide evaluators: mental abnormality, volitional capacity, and likelihood of future sexual violence. The current article presents empirical evidence for the main tenants of these forensic evaluations, provides recommendations for evaluators in light of current limitations of evidence, and offers suggestions for future research in this area of forensic assessment.

Accuracy of actuarial procedures for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk may vary across ethnicity

Little is known about whether the accuracy of tools for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk holds across ethnic minority offenders. I investigated the predictive validity across ethnicity for the RRASOR and the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment procedures in a national cohort of all adult male sex offenders released from prison in Sweden 1993-1997. Subjects ordered out of Sweden upon release from prison were excluded and remaining subjects (N = 1303) divided into three subgroups based on citizenship. Eighty-three percent of the subjects were of Nordic ethnicity, and non-Nordic citizens were either of non-Nordic European (n = 49, hereafter called European) or African Asian descent (n = 128). The two tools were equally accurate among Nordic and European sexual offenders for the prediction of any sexual and any violent nonsexual recidivism. In contrast, neither measure could differentiate African Asian sexual or violent recidivists from nonrecidivists. Compared to European offenders, AfricanAsian offenders had more often sexually victimized a nonrelative or stranger, had higher Static-99 scores, were younger, more often single, and more often homeless. The results require replication, but suggest that the promising predictive validity seen with some risk assessment tools may not generalize across offender ethnicity or migration status. More speculatively, different risk factors or causal chains might be involved in the development or persistence of offending among minority or immigrant sexual abusers.

Psychiatric disorders and recidivism in sexual offenders

Research on psychiatric morbidity in sexual offenders (SOs) has mostly been based on small, selected samples. We studied psychiatric disorders and their relationship with criminal recidivism in a nationwide, representative cohort of SOs. Data on ICD-9 and -10 psychiatric and neurologic morbidity diagnosed during hospital admissions 1987-1997, but prior to sexual offending, were retrieved for all adult male SOs released from Swedish prisons 1993-1997 (N = 1215). Preoffending disorder prevalence and associations between morbidity and criminal reconvictions during a 5-year postdetainment follow-up were explored. Alcohol use disorder was the most frequent diagnosis, followed by drug use disorder, personality disorder, and psychosis. Morbidity requiring admission to hospital was more common in rapists as compared to child molesters. Alcohol use disorder, drug use disorder, personality disorder, and psychosis all increased the risk for sexual recidivism whereas alcohol use disorder and personality disorder predicted violent nonsexual recidivism. Controlling for sociodemographic confounds changed the risk estimates only marginally. Because disorders were identified among only those who had been admitted to psychiatric hospitals as inpatients, underestimation of true prevalence rates was inevitable. However, our findings support psychiatric consultation for improved assessment and management of mental health needs and recidivism risk in SOs.

Stability of the interpretative risk percentages for the RRASOR and Static-99

Current procedures to estimate sex offender recidivism risk typically involve actuarial instruments, either alone or in combination with adjustments based on other considerations. Two of the most commonly employed actuarial instruments for the assessment of sexual recidivism risk are the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR; R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 2000). Although multiple studies of the interrater reliability and predictive validity of these instruments have been completed, with very supportive results, there have to date not been any studies of the degree to which the specific risk percentages attached to each instruments score replicate and remain stable despite changes in underlying samples' recidivism base rates. This study, using data from multiple sources, investigated this issue. The findings indicated that the 5-year risk percentages for the RRASOR were replicated and were remarkably stable despite changes in the samples underlying recidivism base rate. The Static-99 5-year risk percentages were mostly replicated and were stable across varying base rates, but to a lesser degree than was found for the RRASOR. Implications of these results are discussed.