Infrasound associated with the eruption of the Hunga volcano

On 13-15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano erupted. This powerful eruption generated infrasonic waves with amplitudes of thousands of Pascals in the near field. The ground infrasonic stations in China, located approximately 10 000 km from the Hunga volcano, also received waves with frequencies from 0.01 to 0.05 Hz. However, the amplitude reached 17 Pa, which is higher than the predicted amplitude using the absorption model without considering the dispersion effect in the thin thermosphere. At high altitudes, dispersion exists and the sound speed depends on the ratio of the molecular mean collision ratio to sound frequency, which is proportional to the ratio (frequency/pressure). And attenuation coefficients are complex to model. We simulate dispersive sound speeds and attenuation coefficients at different frequencies according to theory and our experimental data. In the thermosphere, the dispersion effect causes noticeable changes of sound speed and then affects wave propagation paths in the far field. The abnormal attenuation coefficient has a smaller impact on thermospheric returns than that of the dispersive sound speed, but it is also not negligible. It explains the large amplitude of thermospheric signals received in our infrasound stations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Celebrating the 15th anniversary of the Royal Society Newton International Fellowship'.

Bridging the gap between GRACE and GRACE Follow-On by combining high-low satellite-to-satellite tracking data and satellite laser ranging

The satellite missions GRACE and GRACE Follow-On have undoubtedly been the most important sources to observe mass transport on global scales. Within the Combination Service for Time-Variable Gravity Fields (COST-G), gravity field solutions from various processing centers are being combined to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and further increase the spatial resolution. The time series of monthly gravity field solutions suffer from a data gap of about one year between the two missions GRACE and GRACE Follow-On among several smaller data gaps. We present an intermediate technique bridging the gap between the two missions allowing (1) for a continued and uninterrupted time series of mass observations and (2) to compare, cross-validate and link the two time series. We focus on the combination of high-low satellite-to-satellite tracking (HL-SST) of low-Earth orbiting satellites by GPS in combination with satellite laser ranging (SLR), where SLR contributes to the very low degrees and HL-SST is able to provide the higher spatial resolution at an lower overall precision compared to GRACE-like solutions. We present a complete series covering the period from 2003 to 2022 filling the gaps of GRACE and between the missions. The achieved spatial resolution is approximately 700 km at a monthly temporal resolutions throughout the time period of interest. For the purpose of demonstrating possible applications, we estimate the low degree glacial isostatic adjustment signal in Fennoscandia and North America. In both cases, the location, the signal strength and extend of the signal coincide well with GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions achieving 99.5% and 86.5% correlation, respectively.

Predicting global thermospheric neutral density during periods with high geomagnetic activity

Estimating global and multi-level Thermosphere Neutral Density (TND) is important for studying coupling processes within the upper atmosphere, and for applications like orbit prediction. Models are applied for predicting TND changes, however, their performance can be improved by accounting for the simplicity of model structure and the sampling limitations of model inputs. In this study, a simultaneous Calibration and Data Assimilation (C/DA) algorithm is applied to integrate freely available CHAMP, GRACE, and Swarm derived TND measurements into the NRLMSISE-00 model. The improved model, called 'C/DA-NRLMSISE-00', and its outputs fit to these measured TNDs, are used to produce global TND fields at arbitrary altitudes (with the same vertical coverage as the NRLMSISE-00). Seven periods, between 2003-2020 that are associated with relatively high geomagnetic activity selected to investigate these fields, within which available models represent difficulties to provide reasonable TND estimates. Independent validations are performed with along-track TNDs that were not used within the C/DA framework, as well as with the outputs of other models such as the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 and the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. The numerical results indicate an average 52%, 50%, 56%, 25%, 47%, 54%, and 63% improvement in the Root Mean Squared Errors of the short term TND forecasts of C/DA-NRLMSISE00 compared to the along-track TND estimates of GRACE (2003, altitude 490 km), GRACE (2004, altitude 486 km), CHAMP (2008, altitude 343 km), GOCE (2010, altitude 270 km), Swarm-B (2015, altitude 520 km), Swarm-B (2017, altitude 514 km), and Swarm-B (2020, altitude 512 km), respectively.

Analysis of the Impact of Atmospheric Models on the Orbit Prediction of Space Debris

Atmospheric drag is an important influencing factor in precise orbit determination and the prediction of low-orbit space debris. It has received widespread attention. Currently, calculating atmospheric drag mainly relies on different atmospheric density models. This experiment was designed to explore the impact of different atmospheric density models on the orbit prediction of space debris. In the experiment, satellite laser ranging data published by the ILRS (International Laser Ranging Service) were used as the basis for the precise orbit determination for space debris. The prediction error of space debris orbits at different orbital heights using different atmospheric density models was used as a criterion to evaluate the impact of atmospheric density models on the determination of space-target orbits. Eight atmospheric density models, DTM78, DTM94, DTM2000, J71, RJ71, JB2006, MSIS86, and NRLMSISE00, were compared in the experiment. The experimental results indicated that the DTM2000 atmospheric density model is best for determining and predicting the orbits of LEO (low-Earth-orbit) targets.

Formation of Nanoscale Protrusions on Polymer Films after Atomic Oxygen Exposure: Observations with Positron Annihilation Lifetime Spectroscopy

Atomic oxygen (AO) is one of the dominant components of the residual atmosphere in low Earth orbit. AO collides with spacecraft with a translational energy of 5 eV, forming nanoscale protrusions on polymeric materials. To clarify the influences of a polymer's chemical structure on the formation of AO-induced microstructures, this study investigated the size of free-volume holes and the layer thickness that interacted with AO for polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polystyrene (PS) by positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy. The injection energies of positrons varied from 1.3 to 10 keV to adjust the injection depth (range) into the polymers (40 nm-1.6 μm). For the pristine films, the lifetime of ortho-positronium (o-Ps, τ3) was longer in the order of PS, PP, and PE regardless of the injection energy of positrons, showing the different sizes of free-volume holes with radii of 0.29, 0.31, and 0.32 nm, respectively. The fraction of the decay component corresponding to o-Ps in all decay components (relative intensity of o-Ps, I3) was used to investigate the chemical change induced by AO exposure. The I3 values for the three polymers were decreased by AO exposure of (2-5) × 1018 atoms/cm2 or more at a depth of 40-48 nm, obtained by 1.3 keV positrons. This indicates that AO formed polar groups (i.e., an oxidized layer) on the polymer surfaces. The maximum depths of such chemical change for PE and PP were deeper than that for PS. The different sizes of free-volume holes would affect the diffusion or ballistic penetration of AO, resulting in the difference in the oxidized layers' thicknesses and surface morphologies.

Generation of equatorial plasma bubble after the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption

Equatorial plasma bubbles are a phenomenon of plasma density depletion with small-scale density irregularities, normally observed in the equatorial ionosphere. This phenomenon, which impacts satellite-based communications, was observed in the Asia-Pacific region after the largest-on-record January 15, 2022 eruption of the Tonga volcano. We used satellite and ground-based ionospheric observations to demonstrate that an air pressure wave triggered by the Tonga volcanic eruption could cause the emergence of an equatorial plasma bubble. The most prominent observation result shows a sudden increase of electron density and height of the ionosphere several ten minutes to hours before the initial arrival of the air pressure wave in the lower atmosphere. The propagation speed of ionospheric electron density variations was ~ 480-540 m/s, whose speed was higher than that of a Lamb wave (~315 m/s) in the troposphere. The electron density variations started larger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The fast response of the ionosphere could be caused by an instantaneous transmission of the electric field to the magnetic conjugate ionosphere along the magnetic field lines. After the ionospheric perturbations, electron density depletion appeared in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere and extended at least up to ±25° in geomagnetic latitude.

Michelson Interferometer for Global High-Resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) On-Orbit Wind Observations: Data Analysis and Instrument Performance

The design, principles of operation, calibration, and data analysis approaches of the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) on the NASA Ionospheric Connection (ICON) satellite have been documented prior to the ICON launch. Here we update and expand on the MIGHTI wind data analysis and discuss the on-orbit instrument performance. In particular, we show typical raw data and we describe key processing steps, including the correction of a "signal-intensity dependent phase shift," which is necessitated by unexpected detector behavior. We describe a new zero-wind calibration approach that is preferred over the originally planned approach due to its higher precision. Similar to the original approach, the new approach is independent of any a priori data. A detailed update on the wind uncertainties is provided and compared to the mission requirements, showing that MIGHTI has met the ICON mission requirements. While MIGHTI observations are not required to produce absolute airglow brightness profiles, we describe a relative brightness profile product, which is included in the published data. We briefly review the spatial resolution of the MIGHTI wind data in addition to the data coverage and data gaps that occurred during the nominal mission. Finally, we include comparisons of the MIGHTI wind data with ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometer observations and meteor radar observations, updating previous studies with more recent data, again showing good agreement. The data processing steps covered in this work and all the derived wind data correspond to the MIGHTI data release Version 5 (v05).

Modeling and correction of fringe patterns in Doppler asymmetric spatial heterodyne interferometry

Doppler asymmetric spatial heterodyne (DASH) interferometry is a novel concept for observing atmospheric winds. This paper discusses a numerical model for the simulation of fringe patterns and a methodology to correct fringe images for extracting Doppler information from ground-based DASH measurements. Based on the propagation of optical waves, the fringe pattern was modeled considering different angular deviations and optical aberrations. A dislocation between two gratings can introduce an additional spatial modulation associated with the diffraction order, which was seen in laboratory measurements. A phase correction is proposed to remove phase differences between different row interferograms, which is the premise for calculating the average interferogram to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. Laboratory tests, simulation results, and Doppler velocity measurements indicate that a matrix determined in the laboratory can be applied to correct interferograms obtained from ground-based DASH measurements.

Cooling and Contraction of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere From 2002 to 2021

We examine the thermal structure of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using observations from 2002 through 2021 from the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. These observations show that the MLT has significantly cooled and contracted between the years 2002 and 2019 (the year of the most recent solar minimum) due to a combination of a decline in the intensity of the 11-year solar cycle and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2.) During this time the thickness of atmosphere between the 1  and 10-4 hPa pressure surfaces (approximately 48 and 105 km) has contracted by 1,333 m, of which 342 m is attributed to increasing CO2. All other pressure surfaces in the MLT have similarly contracted. We further postulate that the MLT in the two most recent solar minima (2008-2009 and 2019-2020) was very likely the coldest and thinnest since the beginning of the Industrial Age. The sensitivity of the MLT to a doubling of CO2 is shown to be -7.5 K based on observed trends in temperature and growth rates of CO2. Colder temperatures observed at 10-4 hPa in 2019 than in the prior solar minimum in 2009 may be due to a decrease of 5% in solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge band spectral region (175-200 nm).

Thermospheric parameters contribution to the formation of Yakutsk F2-layer diurnal summer time anomaly

The role of thermospheric neutral composition in the formation of the Yakutsk diurnal summer time foF₂ anomaly is analyzed. Ionospheric stations inside and outside the anomaly area are considered. The effect of neutral composition in foF₂ is the most noticeable around noontime hours. The difference between observed noontime foF₂ in two areas is significant at the 99.9% confidence level both for monthly median and individual days. The inferred from ionosonde observations and Swarm neutral gas density thermospheric parameters indicate a significant difference between two areas. The inferred exospheric temperature, Tex at Magadan (inside the anomaly area) is significantly larger than Tex at Tunguska (outside the anomaly area). On the contrary, the inferred atomic oxygen [O] at Tunguska is significantly larger than at Magadan. Different [O] abundance in the two areas is the main reason of the observed difference in noontime foF₂ values. Vertical plasma drift depending on magnetic declination, D is the only process responsible for the difference between nighttime foF₂ at Tunguska and Magadan. A possible mechanism of the revealed difference in thermospheric parameters inside and outside the anomaly area is discussed.

A Test of Energetic Particle Precipitation Models Using Simultaneous Incoherent Scatter Radar and Van Allen Probes Observations

Quantification of energetic electron precipitation caused by wave-particle interactions is fundamentally important to understand the cycle of particle energization and loss of the radiation belts. One important way to determine how well the wave-particle interaction models predict losses through pitch-angle scattering into the atmospheric loss cone is the direct comparison between the ionization altitude profiles expected in the atmosphere due to the precipitating fluxes and the ionization profiles actually measured with incoherent scatter radars. This paper reports such a comparison using a forward propagation of loss-cone electron fluxes, calculated with the electron pitch angle diffusion model applied to Van Allen Probes measurements, coupled with the Boulder Electron Radiation to Ionization model, which propagates the fluxes into the atmosphere. The density profiles measured with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar operating in modes especially designed to optimize measurements in the D-region, show multiple instances of close quantitative agreement with predicted density profiles from precipitation of electrons caused by wave-particle interactions in the inner magnetosphere, alternated with intervals with large differences between observations and predictions. Several-minute long intervals of close prediction-observation approximation in the 65-93 km altitude range indicate that the whistler wave-electron interactions models are realistic and produce precipitation fluxes of electrons with energies between 10 keV and >100 keV that are consistent with observations. The alternation of close model-data agreement and poor agreement intervals indicates that the regions causing energetic electron precipitation are highly spatially localized.

Neutral Composition Information in ICON EUV Dayglow Observations

Since the earliest space-based observations of Earth's atmosphere, ultraviolet (UV) airglow has proven a useful resource for remote sensing of the ionosphere and thermosphere. The NASA Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) spacecraft, whose mission is to explore the connections between ionosphere and thermosphere utilizes UV airglow in the typical way: an extreme-UV (EUV) spectrometer uses dayglow between 54 and 88 nm to measure the density of O+, and a far-UV spectrograph uses the O 135.6 nm doublet and N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield band dayglow to measure the column ratio of O to N2 in the upper thermosphere. Two EUV emission features, O+ 61.6 and 83.4 nm, are used for the O+ retrieval; however, many other features are captured along the EUV instrument's spectral dimension. In this study, we examine the other dayglow features observed by ICON EUV and demonstrate that it measures a nitrogen feature around 87.8 nm which can be used to observe the neutral thermosphere.

Active Precipitation of Radiation Belt Electrons Using Rocket Exhaust Driven Amplification (REDA) of Man-Made Whistlers

Ground-based very low frequency (VLF) transmitters located around the world generate signals that leak through the bottom side of the ionosphere in the form of whistler mode waves. Wave and particle measurements on satellites have observed that these man-made VLF waves can be strong enough to scatter trapped energetic electrons into low pitch angle orbits, causing loss by absorption in the lower atmosphere. This precipitation loss process is greatly enhanced by intentional amplification of the whistler waves using a newly discovered process called rocket exhaust driven amplification (REDA). Satellite measurements of REDA have shown between 30 and 50 dB intensification of VLF waves in space using a 60 s burn of the 150 g/s thruster on the Cygnus satellite that services the International Space Station. This controlled amplification process is adequate to deplete the energetic particle population on the affected field lines in a few minutes rather than the multi-day period it would take naturally. Numerical simulations of the pitch angle diffusion for radiation belt particles use the UCLA quasi-linear Fokker Planck model to assess the impact of REDA on radiation belt remediation of newly injected energetic electrons. The simulated precipitation fluxes of energetic electrons are applied to models of D-region electron density and bremsstrahlung X-rays for predictions of the modified environment that can be observed with satellite and ground-based sensors.

Seasonal Variation of Thermospheric Composition Observed by NASA GOLD

We examine characteristics of the seasonal variation of thermospheric composition using column number density ratio ∑O/N 2 observed by the NASA Global Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission from low-mid to mid-high latitudes. We also use ∑O/N 2 derived from the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) limb measurements onboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite and estimated by the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model to aid our investigation. We found that the ∑O/N 2 seasonal variation is hemispherically asymmetric: in the southern hemisphere, it exhibits the well-known annual and semiannual pattern, with highs near the equinoxes, and primary and secondary lows near the solstices. In the northern hemisphere, it is dominated by an annual variation, with a minor semiannual component with the highs shifting toward the wintertime. We also found that the durations of the December and June solstice seasons in terms of ∑O/N 2 are highly variable with longitude. Our hypothesis is that ion-neutral collisional heating in the equatorial ionization anomaly region, ion drag, and auroral Joule heating play substantial roles in this longitudinal dependency. Finally, the rate of change in ∑O/N 2 from one solstice season to the other is dependent on latitude, with more dramatic changes at higher latitudes.

Monopoles from an Atmospheric Fixed Target Experiment

Magnetic monopoles have a long history of theoretical predictions and experimental searches, carrying direct implications for fundamental concepts such as electric charge quantization. We analyze in detail for the first time magnetic monopole production from collisions of cosmic rays bombarding the atmosphere. This source of monopoles is independent of cosmology, has been active throughout Earth's history, and supplies an irreducible monopole flux for all terrestrial experiments. Using results for robust atmospheric fixed target experiment flux of monopoles, we systematically establish direct comparisons of previous ambient monopole searches with monopole searches at particle colliders and set leading limits on magnetic monopole production in the ∼5-100  TeV mass range.

Atmospheric waves and global seismoacoustic observations of the January 2022 Hunga eruption, Tonga

The 15 January 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, produced an explosion in the atmosphere of a size that has not been documented in the modern geophysical record. The event generated a broad range of atmospheric waves observed globally by various ground-based and spaceborne instrumentation networks. Most prominent is the surface-guided Lamb wave ([Formula: see text]0.01 Hz), which we observed propagating for four (+three antipodal) passages around the Earth over six days. Based on Lamb wave amplitudes, the climactic Hunga explosion was comparable in size to that of the 1883 Krakatau eruption. The Hunga eruption produced remarkable globally-detected infrasound (0.01-20 Hz), long-range (~10,000 km) audible sound, and ionospheric perturbations. Seismometers worldwide recorded pure seismic and air-to-ground coupled waves. Air-to-sea coupling likely contributed to fast-arriving tsunamis. We highlight exceptional observations of the atmospheric waves.

Uncertainty quantification techniques for data-driven space weather modeling: thermospheric density application

Machine learning (ML) has been applied to space weather problems with increasing frequency in recent years, driven by an influx of in-situ measurements and a desire to improve modeling and forecasting capabilities throughout the field. Space weather originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the numerous systems between the Sun and Earth. These systems are often tightly coupled and not well understood. This creates a need for skillful models with knowledge about the confidence of their predictions. One example of such a dynamical system highly impacted by space weather is the thermosphere, the neutral region of Earth’s upper atmosphere. Our inability to forecast it has severe repercussions in the context of satellite drag and computation of probability of collision between two space objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) for decision making in space operations. Even with (assumed) perfect forecast of model drivers, our incomplete knowledge of the system results in often inaccurate thermospheric neutral mass density predictions. Continuing efforts are being made to improve model accuracy, but density models rarely provide estimates of confidence in predictions. In this work, we propose two techniques to develop nonlinear ML regression models to predict thermospheric density while providing robust and reliable uncertainty estimates: Monte Carlo (MC) dropout and direct prediction of the probability distribution, both using the negative logarithm of predictive density (NLPD) loss function. We show the performance capabilities for models trained on both local and global datasets. We show that the NLPD loss provides similar results for both techniques but the direct probability distribution prediction method has a much lower computational cost. For the global model regressed on the Space Environment Technologies High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, we achieve errors of approximately 11% on independent test data with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Using an in-situ CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) density dataset, models developed using both techniques provide test error on the order of 13%. The CHAMP models—on validation and test data—are within 2% of perfect calibration for the twenty prediction intervals tested. We show that this model can also be used to obtain global density predictions with uncertainties at a given epoch.

Simulation and optimization of Fe resonance fluorescence lidar performance for temperature-wind measurement

Fe resonance fluorescence lidar (Fe lidar) is considered an ideal candidate for temperature and wind measurement in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. However, considering the complexity of it, only a few Fe lidars have been operated in a few locations. To develop a Fe lidar with high performance, simulation work is the first important step. A simulation model is built in this paper. The expressions for the temperature-wind uncertainties are derived using the error propagation method. Within the limit of saturation effect, an index decomposition of the lidar and atmospheric parameters are performed. When the dwell time and central frequency shift are optimized to 0.205 and 932 MHz at night and 0.212 and 687 MHz during the day, night and daytime calibration curves are acquired, and after confirming the simulation parameters, the performance of Fe lidar is also evaluated. The simulation model could provide a valuable guidance for Fe lidar design.

Modeling and probabilistic analysis of civil aircraft operational risk for suborbital disintegration accidents

To reduce the collision risk to civil airliners caused by suborbital vehicle disintegration events, this paper uses a covariance propagation algorithm to model the debris landing point of suborbital disintegration accidents and gives a collision probability analysis method for civil airliners encountering debris during the cruise. Collision warning is performed for airborne risk targets to improve the emergency response capability of the ATC surveillance system to hazardous situations. The algorithm models the three-dimensional spatial motion target localization problem as a Gauss-Markov process, quantifying the location of debris landing points in the vicinity of nominal trajectories. By predicting the aircraft trajectory, the calculation of the inter-target collision probability is converted into an integration problem of a two-dimensional normally distributed probability density function in a circular domain. Compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method, the calculation speed of debris drop points is improved, which can meet the requirements of civil aviation for real-time response to unexpected situations.

Analysis of Precise Orbit Determination for the HY2D Satellite Using Onboard GPS/BDS Observations

High-precision orbits of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are essential for many scientific applications, such as assessing the change in current global mean sea level, estimating the coefficients of gravity field, and so on. How to determinate the high-precision orbits for LEO satellites has gradually become an important research focus. HY2D is a new altimetry satellite of China, which is equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) and the third generations of the BeiDou Global Navigation Satellite System (BDS-3) in order to guarantee the reliability of orbital precision in radar altimetry mission. Therefore, this study adopts one month of spaceborne data to conduct the research of precise orbit determination (POD) for the HY2D satellite. Our analysis results are: (1) The standard deviation of residuals for the HY2D satellite based on spaceborne BDS and GPS data are 9.12 mm and 8.53 mm, respectively, and there are no significant systematic errors in these residuals. (2) The comparison results with Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS)-derived orbits indicate that the HY2D satellite, using spaceborne BDS and GPS data, can achieve the radial accuracy of 1.4~1.5 cm, and the mean three-dimensional (3D) accuracy are 5.3 cm and 4.3 cm, respectively, which can satisfy high-precision altimetry applications. (3) By means of satellite laser ranging (SLR), the accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-derived orbits of HY2D is approximately 3.3 cm, which reflects that the model strategies are reliable.

Investigation of near-surface chemical explosions effects using seismo-acoustic and synthetic aperture radar analyses

Chemical explosions are ground truth events that provide data, which, in turn, can enhance the understanding of wave propagation, damage assessment, and yield estimation. On 4 August 2020, Beirut, Lebanon was shocked by a catastrophic explosion, which caused devastating damage to the Mediterranean city. A second strong chemical explosion took place at the Xiangshui, China chemical plant on 21 March 2019. Both events generated shock waves that transitioned to infrasound waves, seismic waves, as well as hydroacoustic signals with accompanying T-phases in the case of the Beirut event. In this work, the seismo-acoustic signatures, yields, and associated damage of the two events are investigated. The differentiainterferometry synthetic aperture radar analysis quantified the surface damage and the estimated yield range, equivalent to 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene [C7H5(NO2)3] (TNT), through a "boom" relation of the peak overpressure was evaluated. Infrasound propagation modeling identified a strong duct in the stratosphere with the propagation to the west in the case of the Beirut-Port explosion. In the case of the Xiangshui explosion, the modeling supports the tropospheric propagation toward the Kochi University of Technology (KUT) sensor network in Japan. Although the Beirut yield (202-270 ± 100 tons) was slightly larger than the Xiangshui yield (201 ± 83.5 tons), the near-source damage areas are almost the same based on the distribution of damaged buildings surrounding the explosions.

Exospheric Temperature Measured by NASA-GOLD Under Low Solar Activity: Comparison With Other Data Sets

Exospheric temperature is one of the key parameters in constructing thermospheric models and has been extensively studied with in situ observations and remote sensing. The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) at a geosynchronous vantage point provides dayglow limb images for two longitude sectors, from which we can estimate the terrestrial exospheric temperature since 2018. In this paper, we investigate climatological behavior of the exospheric temperature measured by GOLD. The temperature has positive correlations with solar and geomagnetic activity and exhibits a morning-afternoon asymmetry, both of which agree with previous studies. We have found that the arithmetic sum of F10.7 (solar) and Ap (geomagnetic) indices is highly correlated with the exospheric temperature, explaining ∼64% of the day-to-day variability. Furthermore, the exospheric temperature has good correlation with thermospheric parameters (e.g., neutral temperature, O2 density, and NO emission index) sampled at various heights above ∼130 km, in spite of the well-known thermal gradient below ∼200 km. However, thermospheric temperature at altitudes around 100 km is not well correlated with the GOLD exospheric temperature. The result implies that effects other than thermospheric heating by solar Extreme Ultraviolet and geomagnetic activity take control below a threshold altitude that exists between ∼100 and ∼130 km.

Evaluation of Empirical Atmospheric Models Using Swarm-C Satellite Data

Swarm-C satellite, a new instrument for atmospheric study, has been the focus of many studies to evaluate its usage and accuracy. This paper takes the Swarm-C satellite as a research object to verify the Swarm-C accelerometer’s inversion results. This paper uses the two-row orbital elements density inversion to verify the atmospheric density accuracy results of the Swarm-C satellite accelerometer. After the accuracy of the satellite data is verified, this paper conducts comparative verification and empirical atmospheric model evaluation experiments based on the Swarm-C accelerometer’s inversion results. After comparing with the inversion results of the Swarm-C semi-major axis attenuation method, it is found that the atmospheric density obtained by inversion using the Swarm-C accelerometer is more dynamic and real-time. It shows that with more available data, the Swarm-C satellite could be a new high-quality instrument for related studies along with the well-established satellites. After evaluating the performance of the JB2008 and NRLMSISE-00 empirical atmospheric models using the Swarm-C accelerometer inversion results, it is found that the accuracy and real-time performance of the JB2008 model at the altitude where the Swarm-C satellite is located are better than the NRLMSISE-00 model.

Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements

Global estimation of thermospheric neutral density (TND) on various altitudes is important for geodetic and space weather applications. This is typically provided by models, however, the quality of these models is limited due to their imperfect structure and the sensitivity of their parameters to the calibration period. Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) technique that updates the model’s states and simultaneously calibrates its key parameters. Its application is demonstrated using the TND estimates from on-board accelerometer measurements, e.g., those of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission (at \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\sim 410$$\end{document}∼410 km altitude), as observation, and the frequently used empirical model NRLMSISE-00. The C/DA is applied here to re-calibrate the model parameters including those controlling the influence of solar radiation and geomagnetic activity as well as those related to the calculation of exospheric temperature. The resulting model, called here ‘C/DA-NRLMSISE-00’, is then used to now-cast TNDs and individual neutral mass compositions for 3 h, where the model with calibrated parameters is run again during the assimilation period. C/DA-NRLMSISE-00 is also used to forecast the next 21 h, where no new observations are introduced. These forecasts are unique because they are available globally and on various altitudes (300–600 km). To introduce the impact of the thermosphere on estimating ionospheric parameters, the coupled physics-based model TIE-GCM is run by replacing the O2, O1, He and neutral temperature estimates of the C/DA-NRLMSISE-00. Then, the non-assimilated outputs of electron density (Ne) and total electron content (TEC) are validated against independent measurements. Assessing the forecasts of TNDs with those along the Swarm-A (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\sim 467$$\end{document}∼467 km), -B (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\sim 521$$\end{document}∼521 km), and -C (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\sim 467$$\end{document}∼467 km) orbits shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is considerably reduced by 51, 57 and 54%, respectively. We find improvement of 30.92% for forecasting Ne and 26.48% for TEC compared to the radio occulation and global ionosphere maps (GIM), respectively. The presented C/DA approach is recommended for the short-term global multi-level thermosphere and enhanced ionosphere forecasting applications.

Assessment of ERA-5 Temperature Variability in the MiddleAtmosphere Using Rayleigh LiDAR Measurements between 2005 and 2020

In this study, the temperature biases and the ability of the ERA-5 product to reproduce the LiDAR variability in the 30–80 km altitude range were evaluated for the period 2005–2020, both for the winter and the summer months. During winter, temperatures from the ERA-5 dataset were in good agreement with LiDAR observations up to 45 km, while in the mesosphere, almost 70% of the ERA-5 profiles were cooler than those from LiDAR, except around 65 km. During summer, negative biases of −3 K were observed up to the stratopause, while significant positive biases of more than +10 K were found in the mesosphere. For the winter months, the variability observed by LiDAR, even during sudden stratospheric warming (SSWs) events, was reproduced accurately by the model in the upper stratosphere, but not in the mesosphere. Surprisingly, the LiDAR variability mainly due to propagating gravity waves in the summertime was also not reproduced by ERA-5 in the whole middle atmosphere. The model uncertainty associated with this variability, evaluated afterward with a new method, grew as expected with altitude and was more significant in winter than summer. A principal component analysis of the fluctuations of the temperature differences between the LiDAR and ERA-5 was performed to investigate the vertical coupling between 30 km and 70 km. The three first vertical modes illustrated 76% and 78% of the fluctuations of the temperature difference profiles in summer and winter, respectively, confirming the connection between the studied layers. The leading modes of the summer (49%) and winter (42%) possessed an anti-correlation between the upper stratosphere and the mesosphere, where fluctuations increased (at least ±5 K at 65 km) for both seasons due to the coarse vertical resolution in the model. The other modes showed an agreement between the LiDAR and ERA-5 fluctuations in the upper stratosphere and had a wave-like structure mainly located in the mesosphere, confirming that the model either overlooked or simulated imprecisely the gravity waves, leading to mesospheric inversions. Finally, SSWs impacted the ERA-5 temperature (deviation of ±3K) some days before and after its trigger around the stratopause.

Simultaneous Action of X- and O-Mode HF Pump Waves on the High-Latitude Upper (F-Region) Ionosphere at EISCAT

We report experimental results from multi-instrument diagnostic tools related to phenomena in the high latitude ionosphere F-region, induced by the simultaneous action of powerful extraordinary (X-mode) and ordinary (O-mode) polarized HF radio waves at EISCAT (European Incoherent SCATter) during magnetically quiet background geophysical conditions. HF pump waves were injected towards the magnetic zenith at a frequency of 5.423 MHz, which was just below the critical frequency of the F2 layer when the excitation of X- and O-mode phenomena was possible. In the course of the experiment, the effective radiated power (ERP) of the X-mode wave was 130.5 MW, while the portion of the O-mode ERP was 29.9 MW (about 20% of the full ERP). It was found that simultaneous action of the X- and O-mode pump waves lead to the excitation of effects typical for both X- and O-mode HF pump waves. Namely, the excitation of small-scale field-aligned irregularities due to the thermal parametric (resonance) instability and a downshifted maximum (DM) component in the wideband stimulated electromagnetic emission (WSEE) spectra, typical for the O-mode HF pumping, was observed, together with multiple ion gyro-harmonic structures in the narrowband stimulated electromagnetic emission (NSEE) spectra. These latter results were recorded at a large (more than 1000 km) distance from the EISCAT/heating facility, typical only for an X-mode HF pumping. The results obtained are compared with “pure” O-mode heating and discussed in detail.

Predicting the Daily 10.7-cm Solar Radio Flux Using the Long Short-Term Memory Method

As an important index of solar activity, the 10.7-cm solar radio flux (F10.7) can indicate changes in the solar EUV radiation, which plays an important role in the relationship between the Sun and the Earth. Therefore, it is valuable to study and forecast F10.7. In this study, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method in machine learning is used to predict the daily value of F10.7. The F10.7 series from 1947 to 2019 are used. Among them, the data during 1947–1995 are adopted as the training dataset, and the data during 1996–2019 (solar cycles 23 and 24) are adopted as the test dataset. The fourfold cross validation method is used to group the training set for multiple validations. We find that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction results is only 6.20~6.35 sfu, and the correlation coefficient (R) is as high as 0.9883~0.9889. The overall prediction accuracy of the LSTM method is equivalent to those of the widely used autoregressive (AR) and backpropagation neural network (BP) models. Especially for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, the LSTM model is slightly better. All this demonstrates the potentiality of the LSTM method in the real-time forecasting of F10.7 in future.

On the force of vertical winds in the upper atmosphere: consequences for small biological particles

For many decades, vertical winds have been observed at high altitudes of the Earth's atmosphere, in the mesosphere and thermosphere layers. These observations have been used with a simple one-dimensional model to make estimates of possible altitude climbs by biologically sized particles deeper into the thermosphere, in the rare occurrence where such a particle has been propelled to these altitudes. A particle transport mechanism is suggested from the literature on auroral arcs, indicating that an altitude of 120 km could be reached by a nanometre-sized particle, which is higher than the measured 77 km limit on the biosphere. Vertical wind observations in the upper mesophere and lower thermosphere are challenging to make and so we suggest that particles could reach altitudes greater than 120 km, depending on the magnitude of the vertical wind. Applications of the larger vertical winds in the upper atmosphere to astrobiology and climate science are explored.

Comparison of Three Methodologies for Removal of Random-Noise-Induced Biases From Second-Order Statistical Parameters of Lidar and Radar Measurements

Random-noise-induced biases are inherent issues to the accurate derivation of second-order statistical parameters (e.g., variances, fluxes, energy densities, and power spectra) from lidar and radar measurements. We demonstrate here for the first time an altitude-interleaved method for eliminating such biases, following the original proposals by Gardner and Chu (2020, https://doi.org/10.1364/ao.400375) who demonstrated a time-interleaved method. Interleaving in altitude bins provides two statistically independent samples over the same time period and nearly the same altitude range, thus enabling the replacement of variances that include the noise-induced biases with covariances that are intrinsically free of such biases. Comparing the interleaved method with previous variance subtraction (VS) and spectral proportion (SP) methods using gravity wave potential energy density calculated from Antarctic lidar data and from a forward model, this study finds the accuracy and precision of each method differing in various conditions, each with its own strengths and weakness. VS performs well in high-SNR, yet its accuracy fails at lower-SNR as it often yields negative values. SP is accurate and precise under high-SNR, remaining accurate in worse conditions than VS would, yet develops a positive bias under low-SNR. The interleaved method is accurate in all SNRs but requires a large number of samples to drive random-noise terms in covariances toward zero and to compensate for the reduced precision due to the splitting of return signals. Therefore, selecting the proper bias removal/elimination method for actual signal and sample conditions is crucial in utilizing lidar/radar data, as neglecting this can conceal trends or overstate atmospheric variability.

Topside Measurements at Jicamarca During the 2019-2020 Deep Solar Minimum

We present measurements of the equatorial topside ionosphere above Jicamarca made during extremely low solar flux conditions during the deep solar minimum of 2019-2020. Measurements were made in October, 2019, February, 2020, and September, 2020. The main features observed are a large and extended decrease in noontime temperatures unlike that seen in studies at moderate solar flux levels, predawn ionospheric heating as early as 0300 LT, large day-to-day variability in the O⁺/H⁺ transition height, and negligible helium ion concentration at all altitudes. Data from the Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) instrument onboard the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) and the Topside Ionospheric Plasma Monitor (SSIES) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites are used to assess agreement with ISR data and assist with the analysis of the predawn heating phenomena. We also analyze the data in light of the SAMI2-PE model which shows less agreement with the data than at higher solar flux. The main areas of discrepancy with the data are outlined, such as the absence of significant predawn heating, less pronounced decreases in noontime temperatures, and much higher O⁺ fractions at high altitudes, particularly in September. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the model to various forcing agents such as neutral winds, plasma drifts, solar flux, and heat flow is performed. A discussion is presented on bridging the discrepancies in future model runs. Novel techniques of clutter removal and noise power bias correction are introduced and described in the appendices.

A New MEPED-Based Precipitating Electron Data Set

The work presented here introduces a new data set for inclusion of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in climate model simulations. Measurements made by the medium energy proton and electron detector (MEPED) instruments onboard both the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and the European Space Agency Meteorological Operational satellites are used to create global maps of precipitating electron fluxes. Unlike most previous data sets, the electron fluxes are computed using both the 0° and 90° MEPED detectors. Conversion of observed, broadband electron count rates to differential spectral fluxes uses a linear combination of analytical functions instead of a single function. Two dimensional maps of electron spectral flux are created using Delaunay triangulation to account for the relatively sparse nature of the MEPED sampling. This improves on previous studies that use a 1D interpolation over magnetic local time or L-shell zonal averaging of the MEPED data. A Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulation of the southern hemisphere 2003 winter using the new precipitating electron data set is shown to agree more closely with observations of odd nitrogen than WACCM simulations using other MEPED-based electron data sets. Simulated EEP-induced odd nitrogen increases led to ozone losses of more than 15% in the polar stratosphere near 10 hPa in September of 2003.

Regulation of ionospheric plasma velocities by thermospheric winds

Earth's equatorial ionosphere exhibits substantial and unpredictable day-to-day variations in density and morphology. This presents challenges in preparing for adverse impacts on geopositioning systems and radio communications even 24 hours in advance. The variability is now theoretically understood as a manifestation of thermospheric weather, where winds in the upper atmosphere respond strongly to a spectrum of atmospheric waves that propagate into space from the lower and middle atmosphere. First-principles simulations predict related, large changes in the ionosphere, primarily through modification of wind-driven electromotive forces: the wind-driven dynamo. Here we show the first direct evidence of the action of a wind dynamo in space, using the coordinated, space-based observations of winds and plasma motion made by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ionospheric Connection Explorer. A clear relationship is found between vertical plasma velocities measured at the magnetic equator near 600 km and the thermospheric winds much farther below. Significant correlations are found between the plasma and wind velocities during several successive precession cycles of the Ionospheric Connection Explorer's orbit. Prediction of thermospheric winds in the 100-150 km altitude range emerges as the key to improved prediction of Earth's plasma environment.

Extensive study of radiation dose on human body at aviation altitude through Monte Carlo simulation

The diverse near-Earth radiation environment due to cosmic rays and solar radiation has direct impact on human civilization. In the present and upcoming era of increasing air transfer, it is important to have precise idea of radiation dose effects on human body during air travel. Here, we calculate the radiation dose on the human body at the aviation altitude, also considering the shielding effect of the aircraft structure, using Monte Carlo simulation technique based on Geant4 toolkit. We consider proper 3D mathematical model of the atmosphere and geomagnetic field, updated profile of the incoming particle flux due to cosmic rays and appropriate physics processes. We use quasi-realistic computational phantoms to replicate the human body (male/female) for the effective dose calculation and develop a simplified mathematical model of the aircraft (taking Boeing 777-200LR as reference) for the shielding study. We simulate the radiation environment at the flying altitude (at 10 km and considering geomagnetic latitude in the range of 45-50°), as well as at various locations inside the fuselage of the aircraft. Then, we calculate the dose rates in the different organs for both male and female phantoms, based on latest recommendations of International Commission on Radio logical Protection. This calculation shows that the sex-averaged effective dose rate in human phantom is 5.46 μSv/h, whereas, if we calculate weighted sum of equivalent dose contributions separately in female and male body: total weighted sum of equivalent dose rate received by the female phantom is 5.72 μSv/h and that by the male phantom is 5.20 μSv/h. From the simulation, we also calculate the numerous cosmogenic radionuclides produced inside the phantoms through activation or spallation processes which may induce long-term biological effects.

Gravity Wave Breaking Associated with Mesospheric Inversion Layers as Measured by the Ship-Borne BEM Monge Lidar and ICON-MIGHTI

During a recent 2020 campaign, the Rayleigh lidar aboard the Bâtiment d’Essais et de Mesures (BEM) Monge conducted high-resolution temperature measurements of the upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT). These measurements were used to conduct the first validation of ICON-MIGHTI temperatures by Rayleigh lidar. A double Mesospheric Inversion Layer (MIL) as well as shorter-period gravity waves was observed. Zonal and meridional wind speeds were obtained from locally launched radiosondes and the newly launched ICON satellite as well as from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-ERA5) reanalysis. These three datasets allowed us to see the evolution of the winds in response to the forcing from the MIL and gravity waves. The wavelet analysis of a case study suggests that the wave energy was dissipated in small, intense, transient instabilities about a given wavenumber in addition to via a broad spectrum of breaking waves. This article will also detail the recent hardware advances of the Monge lidar that have allowed for the measurement of MILs and gravity waves at a resolution of 5 min with an effective vertical resolution of 926 m.

Ionization in the Earth’s Atmosphere Due to Isotropic Energetic Electron Precipitation: Ion Production and Primary Electron Spectra

Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) via atmospheric ion production rates is a natural force acting on the atmosphere and climate systems. The correct estimation of EEP ion production and spectra for the computation of ionization rates is an important issue for estimating climate forces. In the present paper, we propose a favorable method for the computation of ionization rates forced by EEP using the new parameterization of ion production and a new spectrum shape, which allow one to take into account the range of precipitating particles from tens of keV to several MeV. A new function of spectral fit will also be helpful in obtaining information about EEP from satellite and balloon observations. Presented here, the parameterization of atmospheric ionization in the Earth’s atmosphere includes a new yield function of isotropically precipitating monoenergetic electrons and ionization via Bremsstrahlung radiation. Look-up tables with ion production/yield function for isotropically precipitating monoenergetic electrons (30 keV–5 MeV) can be easily used for the computation of ionization rates and can further be used by atmospheric and chemistry-climate models for accurate quantification of atmospheric parameters during energetic electron precipitation.

First results from the retrieved column O/N2 ratio from the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON): Evidence of the impacts of nonmigrating tides

In near-Earth space, variations in thermospheric composition have important implications for thermosphere-ionosphere coupling. The ratio of O to N2 is often measured using far-UV airglow observations. Taking such airglow observations from space, looking below the Earth's limb allows for the total column of O and N2 in the ionosphere to be determined. While these observations have enabled many previous studies, determining the impact of non-migrating tides on thermospheric composition has proved difficult, owing to a small contamination of the signal by recombination of ionospheric O+. New ICON observations of far UV are presented here, and their general characteristics are shown. Using these, along with other observations and a global circulation model we show that during the morning hours and at latitudes away from the peak of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly, the impact of non-migrating tides on thermospheric composition can be observed. During March - April 2020, the column O/N2 ratio was seen to vary by 3 - 4 % of the zonal mean. By comparing the amplitude of the variation observed with that in the model, both the utility of these observations and a pathway to enable future studies is shown.

Night-Time Ionospheric Localized Enhancements (NILE) Observed in North America Following Geomagnetic Disturbances

The Ionospheric Data Assimilation Four-Dimensional (IDA4D) technique has been coupled to Sami3, which is another model of the ionosphere (SAMI3). In this application, ground-based and space-based GPS total electron content (TEC) data have been assimilated into SAMI3, while in-situ electron densities, autoscaled ionosonde NmF2, and reference GPS stations have been used for validation. IDA4D/SAMI3 shows that night-time ionospheric localized enhancements (NILE) are formed following geomagnetic storms in November 2003 and August 2018. The NILE phenomenon appears as a moderate, longitudinally extended enhancement of NmF2 at 30°-40°N MLAT, occurring in the late evening (20-24 LT) following much larger enhancements of the equatorial anomaly crests in the main phase of the storms. The NILE appears to be caused by upward and northward plasma transport around the dusk terminator, which is consistent with eastward polarization electric fields. Independent validation confirms the presence of the NILE, and indicates that IDA4D is effective in correcting random errors and systematic biases in SAMI3. In all cases, biases and root-mean-square errors are reduced by the data assimilation, typically by a factor of 2 or more. During the most severe part of the November 2003 storm, the uncorrected ionospheric error on a GPS 3D position at 1LSU (Louisiana) is estimated to exceed 34 m. The IDA4D/SAMI3 specification is effective in correcting this down to 10 m.

Thermospheric Parameters during Ionospheric G-Conditions

For the first time thermospheric parameters (neutral composition, exospheric temperature and vertical plasma drift related to thermospheric winds) have been inferred for ionospheric G-conditions observed with Millstone Hill ISR on 11–13 September 2005; 13 June 2005, and 15 July 2012. The earlier developed method to extract a consistent set of thermospheric parameters from ionospheric observations has been revised to solve the problem in question. In particular CHAMP/STAR and GOCE neutral gas density observations were included into the retrieval process. It was found that G-condition days were distinguished by enhanced exospheric temperature and decreased by ~2 times of the column atomic oxygen abundance in a comparison to quiet reference days, the molecular nitrogen column abundance being practically unchanged. The inferred upward plasma drift corresponds to strong ~90 m/s equatorward thermospheric wind presumably related to strong auroral heating on G-condition days.

Earth Rotation Parameters Estimation Using GPS and SLR Measurements to Multiple LEO Satellites

Earth rotation parameters (ERP) are one of the key parameters in realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frames (ITRF). At present, the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) generates the satellite laser ranging (SLR)-based ERP products only using SLR observations to Laser Geodynamics Satellite (LAGEOS) and Etalon satellites. Apart from these geodetic satellites, many low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites of Earth observation missions are also equipped with laser retroreflector arrays, and produce a large number of SLR observations, which are only used for orbit validation. In this study, we focus on the contribution of multiple LEO satellites to ERP estimation. The SLR and Global Positioning System (GPS) observations of the current seven LEO satellites (Swarm-A/B/C, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-C/D, and Sentinel-3A/B) are used. Several schemes are designed to investigate the impact of LEO orbit improvement, the ERP quality of the single-LEO solutions, and the contribution of multiple LEO combinations. We find that ERP estimation using an ambiguity-fixed orbit can attain a better result than that using ambiguity-float orbit. The introduction of an ambiguity-fixed orbit contributes to an accuracy improvement of 0.5%, 1.1% and 15% for X pole, Y pole and station coordinates, respectively. In the multiple LEO satellite solutions, the quality of ERP and station coordinates can be improved gradually with the increase in the involved LEO satellites. The accuracy of X pole, Y pole and length-of-day (LOD) is improved by 57.5%, 57.6% and 43.8%, respectively, when the LEO number increases from three to seven. Moreover, the combination of multiple LEO satellites is able to weaken the orbit-related signal existing in the single-LEO solution. We also investigate the combination of LEO satellites and LAGEOS satellites in the ERP estimation. Compared to the LAGEOS solution, the combination leads to an accuracy improvement of 0.6445 ms, 0.6288 ms and 0.0276 ms for X pole, Y pole and LOD, respectively. In addition, we explore the feasibility of a one-step method, in which ERP and the orbit parameters are jointly determined, based on SLR and GPS observations, and present a detailed comparison between the one-step solution and two-step solution.

Micro Satellite Orbital Boost by Electrodynamic Tethers

In this manuscript, a method for maneuvering a spacecraft using electrically charged tethers is explored. The spacecraft’s velocity vector can be modified by interacting with Earth’s magnetic field. Through this method, a spacecraft can maintain an orbit indefinitely by reboosting without the constraint of limited propellant. The spacecraft-tether system dynamics in low Earth orbit are simulated to evaluate the effects of Lorentz force and torques on translational motion. With 500-meter tethers charged with a 1-amp current, a 100-kg spacecraft can gain 250 m of altitude in one orbit. By evaluating the combined effects of Lorenz force and the coupled effects of Lorentz torque propagation through Euler’s moment equation and Newton’s translational motion equations, the simulated spacecraft-tether system can orbit indefinitely at altitudes as low as 275 km. Through a rare evaluation of the nonlinear coupling of the six differential equations of motion, the one finding is that an electrodynamic tether can be used to maintain a spacecraft’s orbit height indefinitely for very low Earth orbits. However, the reboost maneuver is inefficient for high inclination orbits and has high electrical power requirement. To overcome greater aerodynamic drag at lower altitudes, longer tethers with higher power draw are required.

Impact of Attitude Model, Phase Wind-Up and Phase Center Variation on Precise Orbit and Clock Offset Determination of GRACE-FO and CentiSpace-1

Currently, low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are attracting great attention in the navigation enhancement field because of their stronger navigation signal and faster elevation variation than medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellites. To meet the need for real-time and precise positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services, the first and most difficult task is correcting errors in the process of precise LEO orbit and clock offset determination as much as possible. Launched in 29 September 2018, the CentiSpace-1 (CS01) satellite is the first experimental satellite of LEO-based navigation enhancement system constellations developed by Beijing Future Navigation Technology Co. Ltd. To analyze the impact of the attitude model, carrier phase wind-up (PWU) and phase center variation (PCV) on precise LEO orbit and clock offset in an LEO-based navigation system that needs extremely high precision, we not only select the CS01 satellite as a testing spacecraft, but also the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). First, the dual-frequency global positioning system (GPS) data are collected and the data quality is assessed by analyzing the performance of tracking GPS satellites, multipath errors and signal to noise ratio (SNR) variation. The analysis results show that the data quality of GRACE-FO is slightly better than CS01. With residual analysis and overlapping comparison, a further orbit quality improvement is possible when we further correct the errors of the attitude model, PWU and PCV in this paper. The final three-dimensional (3D) root mean square (RMS) of the overlapping orbit for GRACE-FO and CS01 is 2.08 cm and 1.72 cm, respectively. Meanwhile, errors of the attitude model, PWU and PCV can be absorbed partly in the clock offset and these errors can generate one nonnegligible effect, which can reach 0.02~0.05 ns. The experiment results indicate that processing the errors of the attitude model, PWU and PCV carefully can improve the consistency of precise LEO orbit and clock offset and raise the performance of an LEO-based navigation enhancement system.

Spectra of Acoustic-Gravity Waves in the Atmosphere with a Quasi-Isothermal Upper Layer

In this paper, we study, in theoretical terms, the structure of the spectrum of acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) in the nonisothermal atmosphere having asymptotically constant temperature at high altitudes. A mathematical problem of wave propagation from arbitrary initial perturbations in the half-infinite nonisothermal atmosphere is formulated and analyzed for a system of linearized hydrodynamic equations for small-amplitude waves. Besides initial and lower boundary conditions at the ground, wave energy conservation requirements are applied. In this paper, we show that this mathematical problem belongs to the class of wave problems having self-adjoint evolution operators, which ensures the correctness and existence of solutions for a wide range of atmospheric temperature stratifications. A general solution of the problem can be built in the form of basic eigenfunction expansions of the evolution operator. The paper shows that wave frequencies considered as eigenvalues of the self-adjoint evolution operator are real and form two global branches corresponding to high- and low-frequency AGW modes. These two branches are separated since the Brunt–Vaisala frequency is smaller than the acoustic cutoff frequency at the upper boundary of the model. Wave modes belonging to the low-frequency global spectral branch have properties of internal gravity waves (IGWs) at all altitudes. Wave modes of the high-frequency spectral branch at different altitudes may have properties of IGWs or acoustic waves depending on local stratification. The results of simulations using a high-resolution nonlinear numerical model confirm possible changes of AGW properties at different altitudes in the nonisothermal atmosphere.

Equatorial auroral records reveal dynamics of the paleo-West Pacific geomagnetic anomaly

Localized regions of low geomagnetic intensity such as the South Atlantic Anomaly allow energetic particles from the Van Allen radiation belt to precipitate into the atmosphere and have been linked to a signature in the form of red aurora-like airglow visible to the naked eye. Smoothed global geomagnetic models predict a low-intensity West Pacific Anomaly (WPA) during the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries characterized by a simple time dependence. Here, we link the WPA to an independent database of equatorial aurorae recorded in Seoul, South Korea. These records show a complex fluctuating behavior in auroral frequency, whose overall trend from 1500 to 1800 AD is consistent with the locally weak geomagnetic field of the WPA, with a minimum at 1650 AD. We propose that the fluctuations in auroral frequency are caused by corresponding and hitherto unknown fluctuations in the regional magnetic intensity with peaks at 1590 and 1720 AD, a time dependence that has been masked by the smoothing inherent in regularized global geomagnetic models. A physical core flow model demonstrates that such behavior requires localized time-dependent upwelling flows in the Earth's core, possibly driven by regional lower-mantle anomalies.

Prospects for beyond the Standard Model physics searches at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment: DUNE Collaboration

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be a powerful tool for a variety of physics topics. The high-intensity proton beams provide a large neutrino flux, sampled by a near detector system consisting of a combination of capable precision detectors, and by the massive far detector system located deep underground. This configuration sets up DUNE as a machine for discovery, as it enables opportunities not only to perform precision neutrino measurements that may uncover deviations from the present three-flavor mixing paradigm, but also to discover new particles and unveil new interactions and symmetries beyond those predicted in the Standard Model (SM). Of the many potential beyond the Standard Model (BSM) topics DUNE will probe, this paper presents a selection of studies quantifying DUNE's sensitivities to sterile neutrino mixing, heavy neutral leptons, non-standard interactions, CPT symmetry violation, Lorentz invariance violation, neutrino trident production, dark matter from both beam induced and cosmogenic sources, baryon number violation, and other new physics topics that complement those at high-energy colliders and significantly extend the present reach.

The Thermospheric Column O/N2 Ratio

More than 2 decades ago, D. J. Strickland and colleagues proposed use of the O/N₂ column number density ratio as a new geophysical quantity to interpret thermospheric processes recorded in far ultraviolet (FUV) images of the Earth. This concept has enabled multiple advances in understanding the global behavior of Earth's thermosphere. Nevertheless, confusion remains about the conceptual meaning of the column density ratio, and in the application of this integral quantity. This is so even though it is now a key thermospheric measurement made by current and planned far ultraviolet remote sensing missions in pursuit of new understanding of thermospheric processes and variability. The intent here is to review the historical context of the O/N₂ column density ratio, clarify its physical meaning, and resolve misunderstandings evident in the literature. Simple examples elucidate its original derivation for extracting column O/N₂ ratios from measurements of the OI 135.6 nm/N₂ Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) emission based on an algorithmic synthesis of model precomputations. These are organized in the form of a table lookup of column density ratio as a function of observed radiance ratios. To accommodate generalized solar-geophysical and viewing conditions, the table required to specify the number of needed parameters becomes large. Proposed as an alternative is a simplified, first principles approach to obtaining the column density ratio from the emission ratio. This new methodology is now being applied successfully to FUV measurements made from onboard the Ionospheric CONnection satellite and will be applied retrospectively to the Global Ultraviolet Imager data.

GNSS total variometric approach: first demonstration of a tool for real-time tsunami genesis estimation

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is used in seismology to study the ground displacements as well as to monitor the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) perturbations following seismic events. The aim of this work is to combine these two observations in one real-time method based on the Total Variometric Approach (TVA) to include the GNSS real-time data stream in future warning systems and tsunami genesis estimation observing both, ground motion and TEC. Our TVA couples together the Variometric Approach for Displacement Analysis Stand-alone Engine (VADASE) with the Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation (VARION) algorithms. We apply the TVA to the Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake, that occurred in Chile on September 16, 2015, and we demonstrate the coherence of the earthquake ground shaking and the TEC perturbation by using the same GNSS data stream in a real-time scenario. Nominally, we also highlight a stronger kinetic energy released in the north of the epicenter and visible in both, the ground motion and the TEC perturbation detect at 30 s and around 9.5 min after the rupture respectively. The high spatial resolution of ionospheric TEC measurement seems to match with the extent of the seismic source. The GNSS data stream by TVA of both the ground and ionospheric measurement opens today new perspectives to real-time warning systems for tsunami genesis estimation.

Cloud Formation From a Localized Water Release in the Upper Mesosphere: Indication of Rapid Cooling

Polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) occur in the summer near 82 -85km altitude due to seasonal changes of temperature and humidity. However, water vapor and associated PMCs have also been observed associated with rocket exhaust. The effects of this rocket exhaust on the temperature of the upper mesosphere are not well understood. To investigate these effects, 220 kg of pure water was explosively released at 85 km as part of the Super Soaker sounding rocket experiment on the night of January 25-26, 2018 at Poker Flat Research Range (65°N, 147°W). A cloud formed within 18 s and was measured by a ground-based Rayleigh lidar. The peak altitude of the cloud appeared to descend from 92 to 78 km over 3 min. Temperatures leading up to the release were between 197 and 232 K, about 50 K above the summertime water frost point when PMCs typically occur. The apparent motion of the cloud is interpreted in terms of the expansion of the explosive release. Analysis using a water vapor radiative cooling code coupled to a microphysical model indicates that the cloud formed due to the combined effects of rapid radiative cooling (∼25 K) by meter-scale filaments of nearly pure water vapor (∼1 ppv) and an increase in the frost point temperature (from 150 to 200 K) due to the high concentration of water vapor. These results indicate that water exhaust not only acts as a reservoir for mesospheric cloud production but also actively cools the mesosphere to induce cloud formation.

Infrasonic Earthquake Detectability Investigated in Southern Part of Japan, 2019

The Kochi University of Technology (KUT) Infrasound Sensor Network contains 30 infrasound sensors which are distributed all over Japan especially in Shikoku Island. At all infrasound stations installed with three-axis accelerometers to measure the peak ground acceleration (PGA). Many earthquakes were detected by our system after establishing of the network since 2016. In this study we will focus on all the possibilities for infrasound detection generated from earthquakes using KUT sensor network and International Monitoring system (IMS) stations for the earthquakes which were detected in southern part of Japan during 2019. As for earthquakes with strike-slip mechanisms the P-waves could not be detected by our sensors. In addition, The conversion from seismic to acoustic waves can be happened through the generating of the T-phase from oceanic earthquakes. On 9 May 2019, progressive multi-channel cross correlation (PMCC) method applied infrasound and hydroacoustic waves from two earthquakes happened in west of Kyushu Island as the T-phase was well-recorded at H11N station near Wake Island. Moreover, infrasound propagation modeling is applied to the reconstructed atmosphere profile by Ground to Space Model (AVO-G2S) to confirm the infrasound arrivals, furthermore the 3D ray tracing process and the calculations by using the transmission loss equation with normal modes and parabolic equation methods are investigated. The study confirmed the infrasound generation scenario from the T-phase of oceanic propagation.