Global validation of data-assimilative electron ring current nowcast for space weather applications

The hazardous plasma environment surrounding Earth poses risks to satellites due to internal charging and surface charging effects. Accurate predictions of these risks are crucial for minimizing damage and preparing for system failures of satellites. To forecast the plasma environment, it is essential to know the current state of the system, as the accuracy of the forecast depends on the accuracy of the initial condition of the forecast. In this study, we use data assimilation techniques to combine observational data and model predictions, and present the first global validation of a data-assimilative electron ring current nowcast during a geomagnetic storm. By assimilating measurements from one satellite and validating the results against another satellite in a different magnetic local time sector, we assess the global response and effectiveness of the data assimilation technique for space weather applications. Using this method, we found that the simulation accuracy can be drastically improved at times when observations are available while eliminating almost all of the bias previously present in the model. These findings contribute to the construction of improved operational models in estimating surface charging risks and providing realistic 'source' populations for radiation belt simulations.

A missing dusk-side loss process in the terrestrial electron ring current

The Earth's magnetic field traps charged particles which are transported longitudinally around Earth, generating a near-circular current, known as the ring current. While the ring current has been measured on the ground and space for many decades, the enhancement of the ring current during geomagnetic storms is still not well understood, due to many processes contributing to its dynamics on different time scales. Here, we show that existing ring current models systematically overestimate electron flux observations of 10-50 keV on the nightside during storm onset. By analyzing electron drift trajectories, we show that this systematic overestimation of flux can be explained through a missing loss process which operates in the pre-midnight sector. Quantifying this loss reveals that the theoretical upper limit of loss has to be reached over a broad region of space in order to reproduce the observations. This missing loss may be attributed to inaccuracies in the parameterization of the loss due to chorus wave interactions, combined with the scattering by electrostatic electron cyclotron harmonic waves which is currently not included in ring current models.

Extreme Energy Spectra of Relativistic Electron Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt

Electron diffusion by whistler-mode chorus waves is one of the key processes controlling the dynamics of relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts. It is responsible for the acceleration of sub-relativistic electrons injected from the plasma sheet to relativistic energies as well as for their precipitation and loss into the atmosphere. Based on analytical estimates of chorus wave-driven quasi-linear electron energy and pitch-angle diffusion rates, we provide analytical steady-state solutions to the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation for the relativistic electron distribution and flux. The impact on these steady-state solutions of additional electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and of ultralow frequency waves are examined. Such steady-state solutions correspond to hard energy spectra at 1-4 MeV, dangerous for satellite electronics, and represent attractors for the system dynamics in the presence of sufficiently strong driving by continuous injections of 10-300 keV electrons. Therefore, these analytical steady-state solutions provide a simple means for estimating the most extreme electron energy spectra potentially encountered in the outer radiation belt, despite the great variability of injections and plasma conditions. These analytical steady-state solutions are compared with numerical simulations based on the full Fokker-Planck equation and with relativistic electron flux spectra measured by satellites during one extreme event and three strong events of high time-integrated geomagnetic activity, demonstrating a good agreement.

A Climatology of Long-Duration High 2-MeV Electron Flux Periods in the Outer Radiation Belt

Since the advent of the Space Age, the importance of understanding and forecasting relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts has been steadily growing due to the threat that such particles pose to satellite electronics. Here, we provide a model of long-duration periods of high time-integrated 2-MeV electron flux deep inside the outer radiation belt, based on the significant correlation obtained in 2001-2017 between time-integrated electron flux measured by satellites and a measure of the preceding time-integrated homogenized aa _H geomagnetic index. We show that this correlation is likely due to a stronger cumulative chorus wave-driven acceleration of relativistic electrons and a stronger cumulative inward radial diffusion of such electrons during periods of higher time-integrated geomagnetic activity. Return levels of 2-MeV electron flux are provided based on Extreme Value analysis of time-integrated geomagnetic activity over 1868-2017, in rough agreement with estimates based on 20-year data sets of measured flux. A high correlation is also found between our measure of time-integrated geomagnetic activity averaged over each solar cycle and averaged sunspot numbers, potentially paving the way for forecasts of time-integrated relativistic electron flux during future solar cycles based on predictions of solar activity.

Resolving Magnetopause Shadowing Using Multimission Measurements of Phase Space Density

Loss mechanisms act independently or in unison to drive rapid loss of electrons in the radiation belts. Electrons may be lost by precipitation into the Earth's atmosphere, or through the magnetopause into interplanetary space-a process known as magnetopause shadowing. While magnetopause shadowing is known to produce dropouts in electron flux, it is unclear if shadowing continues to remove particles in tandem with electron acceleration processes, limiting the overall flux increase. We investigated the contribution of shadowing to overall radiation belt fluxes throughout a geomagnetic storm starting on the 7 September 2017. We use new, multimission phase space density calculations to decipher electron dynamics during each storm phase and identify features of magnetopause shadowing during both the net-loss and the net-acceleration storm phases on sub-hour time scales. We also highlight two distinct types of shadowing; "direct," where electrons are lost as their orbit intersects the magnetopause, and "indirect," where electrons are lost through ULF wave driven radial transport toward the magnetopause boundary.

A Quarter Century of Wind Spacecraft Discoveries

The Wind spacecraft, launched on November 1, 1994, is a critical element in NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory (HSO)—a fleet of spacecraft created to understand the dynamics of the Sun‐Earth system. The combination of its longevity (>25 years in service), its diverse complement of instrumentation, and high resolution and accurate measurements has led to it becoming the “standard candle” of solar wind measurements. Wind has over 55 selectable public data products with over ∼1,100 total data variables (including OMNI data products) on SPDF/CDAWeb alone. These data have led to paradigm shifting results in studies of statistical solar wind trends, magnetic reconnection, large‐scale solar wind structures, kinetic physics, electromagnetic turbulence, the Van Allen radiation belts, coronal mass ejection topology, interplanetary and interstellar dust, the lunar wake, solar radio bursts, solar energetic particles, and extreme astrophysical phenomena such as gamma‐ray bursts. This review introduces the mission and instrument suites then discusses examples of the contributions by Wind to these scientific topics that emphasize its importance to both the fields of heliophysics and astrophysics.

Wind has made seminal advances to the fields of astrophysics, turbulence, kinetic physics, magnetic reconnection, and the radiation belts

Wind pioneered the study of the source and evolution of solar radio emissions below 15 MHz

Wind revolutionized our understanding of coronal mass ejections, their internal magnetic structure, and evolution

Coexistence of Lightning Generated Whistlers, Hiss and Lower Hybrid Noise Observed by e-POP (SWARM-E)–RRI

Whistler mode waves play a major role in regulating the lifetime of trapped electrons in the Earth’s radiation belts. Specifically, interaction with whistler mode hiss waves is one of the mechanisms that maintains the slot region between the inner and outer radiation belts. The generation mechanism of hiss is a topic still under debate with at least three prominent theories present in the literature. Lightning generated whistlers in their ducted or non-ducted modes are considered to be one of the possible sources of hiss. We present a study of new observations from the Radio Receiver Instrument (RRI) on the Enhanced Polar Outflow Probe (ePOP: also known as SWARM-E). RRI consists of two orthogonal dipole antennas, which enables polarization measurements, when the satellite boresight is parallel to the geomagnetic field. Here we present 105 ePOP - RRI events from 2014–2018, in which lightning whistlers(75) and hiss waves(39) were observed. In more than 50% of those whistler observations, hiss found to co-exist. Moreover, the whistler observations are correlated with observations of wave power at the lower-hybrid resonance. The observations and a whistler mode ray-tracing study suggest that multiple-hop lightning induced whistlers can be a source of hiss and plasma instabilities in the magnetosphere.

Ultrafast wave-particle energy transfer in the collapse of standing whistler waves

Efficient energy transfer from electromagnetic waves to ions has been demanded to control laboratory plasmas for various applications and could be useful to understand the nature of space and astrophysical plasmas. However, there exists the severe unsolved problem that most of the wave energy is converted quickly to electrons but not to ions. Here, an energy-to-ion conversion process in overdense plasmas associated with whistler waves is investigated by numerical simulations and a theoretical model. Whistler waves propagating along a magnetic field in space and laboratories often form standing waves by the collision of counter-propagating waves or through the reflection. We find that ions in standing whistler waves acquire a large amount of energy directly from the waves over a short time scale comparable to the wave oscillation period. The thermalized ion temperature increases in proportion to the square of the wave amplitude and becomes much higher than the electron temperature in a wide range of wave-plasma conditions. This efficient ion-heating mechanism applies to various plasma phenomena in space physics and fusion energy sciences.

From solar sneezing to killer electrons: outer radiation belt response to solar eruptions

Electrons in the outer Van Allen (radiation) belt occasionally reach relativistic energies, turning them into a potential hazard for spacecraft operating in geospace. Such electrons have secured the reputation of satellite killers and play a prominent role in space weather. The flux of these electrons can vary over time scales of years (related to the solar cycle) to minutes (related to sudden storm commencements). Electric fields and plasma waves are the main factors regulating the electron transport, acceleration and loss. Both the fields and the plasma waves are driven directly or indirectly by disturbances originating in the Sun, propagating through interplanetary space and impacting the Earth. This paper reviews our current understanding of the response of outer Van Allen belt electrons to solar eruptions and their interplanetary extensions, i.e. interplanetary coronal mass ejections and high-speed solar wind streams and the associated stream interaction regions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Solar eruptions and their space weather impact'.

Unified View of Nonlinear Wave Structures Associated with Whistler-Mode Chorus

A range of nonlinear wave structures, including Langmuir waves, unipolar electric fields, and bipolar electric fields, are often observed in association with whistler-mode chorus waves in near-Earth space. We demonstrate that the three seemingly different nonlinear wave structures originate from the same nonlinear electron trapping process by whistler-mode chorus waves. The ratio of the Landau resonant velocity to the electron thermal velocity controls the type of nonlinear wave structures that will be generated.

Electron Acceleration to MeV Energies at Jupiter and Saturn

The radiation belts and magnetospheres of Jupiter and Saturn show significant intensities of relativistic electrons with energies up to tens of megaelectronvolts (MeV). To date, the question on how the electrons reach such high energies is not fully answered. This is largely due to the lack of high-quality electron spectra in the MeV energy range that models could be fit to. We reprocess data throughout the Galileo orbiter mission in order to derive Jupiter's electron spectra up to tens of MeV. In the case of Saturn, the spectra from the Cassini orbiter are readily available and we provide a systematic analysis aiming to study their acceleration mechanisms. Our analysis focuses on the magnetospheres of these planets, at distances of L > 20 and L > 4 for Jupiter and Saturn, respectively, where electron intensities are not yet at radiation belt levels. We find no support that MeV electrons are dominantly accelerated by wave-particle interactions in the magnetospheres of both planets at these distances. Instead, electron acceleration is consistent with adiabatic transport. While this is a common assumption, confirmation of this fact is important since many studies on sources, losses, and transport of energetic particles rely on it. Adiabatic heating can be driven through various radial transport mechanisms, for example, injections driven by the interchange instability or radial diffusion. We cannot distinguish these processes at Saturn with our technique. For Jupiter, we suggest that the dominating acceleration process is radial diffusion because injections are never observed at MeV energies.

Realistic Worst Case for a Severe Space Weather Event Driven by a Fast Solar Wind Stream

Satellite charging is one of the most important risks for satellites on orbit. Satellite charging can lead to an electrostatic discharge resulting in component damage, phantom commands, and loss of service and in exceptional cases total satellite loss. Here we construct a realistic worst case for a fast solar wind stream event lasting 5 days or more and use a physical model to calculate the maximum electron flux greater than 2 MeV for geostationary orbit. We find that the flux tends toward a value of 106 cm-2·s-1·sr-1 after 5 days and remains high for another 5 days. The resulting flux is comparable to a 1 in 150-year event found from an independent statistical analysis of electron data. Approximately 2.5 mm of Al shielding would be required to reduce the internal charging current to below the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-recommended guidelines, much more than is currently used. Thus, we would expect many satellites to report electrostatic discharge anomalies during such an event with a strong likelihood of service outage and total satellite loss. We conclude that satellites at geostationary orbit are more likely to be at risk from fast solar wind stream event than a Carrington-type storm.

Processes in auroral oval and outer electron radiation belt

We have analyzed the role of auroral processes in the formation of the outer radiation belt, considering that the main part of the auroral oval maps to the outer part of the ring current, instead of the plasma sheet as is commonly postulated. In this approach, the outer ring current is the region where transverse magnetospheric currents close inside the magnetosphere. Specifically, we analyzed the role of magnetospheric substorms in the appearance of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. We present experimental evidence that the presence of substorms during a geomagnetic storm recovery phase is, in fact, very important for the appearance of a new radiation belt during this phase. We discuss the possible role of adiabatic acceleration of relativistic electrons during storm recovery phase and show that this mechanism may accelerate the relativistic electrons by more than one order of magnitude.

What effect do substorms have on the content of the radiation belts?

Substorms are fundamental and dynamic processes in the magnetosphere, converting captured solar wind magnetic energy into plasma energy. These substorms have been suggested to be a key driver of energetic electron enhancements in the outer radiation belts. Substorms inject a keV "seed" population into the inner magnetosphere which is subsequently energized through wave-particle interactions up to relativistic energies; however, the extent to which substorms enhance the radiation belts, either directly or indirectly, has never before been quantified. In this study, we examine increases and decreases in the total radiation belt electron content (TRBEC) following substorms and geomagnetically quiet intervals. Our results show that the radiation belts are inherently lossy, shown by a negative median change in TRBEC at all intervals following substorms and quiet intervals. However, there are up to 3 times as many increases in TRBEC following substorm intervals. There is a lag of 1-3 days between the substorm or quiet intervals and their greatest effect on radiation belt content, shown in the difference between the occurrence of increases and losses in TRBEC following substorms and quiet intervals, the mean change in TRBEC following substorms or quiet intervals, and the cross correlation between SuperMAG AL (SML) and TRBEC. However, there is a statistically significant effect on the occurrence of increases and decreases in TRBEC up to a lag of 6 days. Increases in radiation belt content show a significant correlation with SML and SYM-H, but decreases in the radiation belt show no apparent link with magnetospheric activity levels.

Ultra-low-frequency wave-driven diffusion of radiation belt relativistic electrons

Van Allen radiation belts are typically two zones of energetic particles encircling the Earth separated by the slot region. How the outer radiation belt electrons are accelerated to relativistic energies remains an unanswered question. Recent studies have presented compelling evidence for the local acceleration by very-low-frequency (VLF) chorus waves. However, there has been a competing theory to the local acceleration, radial diffusion by ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves, whose importance has not yet been determined definitively. Here we report a unique radiation belt event with intense ULF waves but no detectable VLF chorus waves. Our results demonstrate that the ULF waves moved the inner edge of the outer radiation belt earthward 0.3 Earth radii and enhanced the relativistic electron fluxes by up to one order of magnitude near the slot region within about 10 h, providing strong evidence for the radial diffusion of radiation belt relativistic electrons.

Wave-driven butterfly distribution of Van Allen belt relativistic electrons

Van Allen radiation belts consist of relativistic electrons trapped by Earth's magnetic field. Trapped electrons often drift azimuthally around Earth and display a butterfly pitch angle distribution of a minimum at 90° further out than geostationary orbit. This is usually attributed to drift shell splitting resulting from day-night asymmetry in Earth's magnetic field. However, direct observation of a butterfly distribution well inside of geostationary orbit and the origin of this phenomenon have not been provided so far. Here we report high-resolution observation that a unusual butterfly pitch angle distribution of relativistic electrons occurred within 5 Earth radii during the 28 June 2013 geomagnetic storm. Simulation results show that combined acceleration by chorus and magnetosonic waves can successfully explain the electron flux evolution both in the energy and butterfly pitch angle distribution. The current provides a great support for the mechanism of wave-driven butterfly distribution of relativistic electrons.

Near-Earth injection of MeV electrons associated with intense dipolarization electric fields: Van Allen Probes observations

Substorms generally inject tens to hundreds of keV electrons, but intense substorm electric fields have been shown to inject MeV electrons as well. An intriguing question is whether such MeVelectron injections can populate the outer radiation belt. Here we present observations of a substorm injection of MeV electrons into the inner magnetosphere. In the premidnight sector at L ∼ 5.5, Van Allen Probes (Radiation Belt Storm Probes)-A observed a large dipolarization electric field (50 mV/m) over ∼40 s and a dispersionless injection of electrons up to ∼3 MeV. Pitch angle observations indicated betatron acceleration of MeV electrons at the dipolarization front. Corresponding signals of MeV electron injection were observed at LANL-GEO, THEMIS-D, and GOES at geosynchronous altitude. Through a series of dipolarizations, the injections increased the MeV electron phase space density by 1 order of magnitude in less than 3 h in the outer radiation belt (L > 4.8). Our observations provide evidence that deep injections can supply significant MeV electrons.

Direct detection of resonant electron pitch angle scattering by whistler waves in a laboratory plasma

Resonant interactions between energetic electrons and whistler mode waves are an essential ingredient in the space environment, and in particular in controlling the dynamic variability of Earth's natural radiation belts, which is a topic of extreme interest at the moment. Although the theory describing resonant wave-particle interaction has been present for several decades, it has not been hitherto tested in a controlled laboratory setting. In the present Letter we report on the first laboratory experiment to directly detect resonant pitch angle scattering of energetic (∼keV) electrons due to whistler mode waves. We show that the whistler mode wave deflects energetic electrons at precisely the predicted resonant energy, and that varying both the maximum beam energy, and the wave frequency, alters the energetic electron beam very close to the resonant energy.

Analytic expressions for ULF wave radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients

We present analytic expressions for ULF wave-derived radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients, as a function of L and Kp, which can easily be incorporated into global radiation belt transport models. The diffusion coefficients are derived from statistical representations of ULF wave power, electric field power mapped from ground magnetometer data, and compressional magnetic field power from in situ measurements. We show that the overall electric and magnetic diffusion coefficients are to a good approximation both independent of energy. We present example 1-D radial diffusion results from simulations driven by CRRES-observed time-dependent energy spectra at the outer boundary, under the action of radial diffusion driven by the new ULF wave radial diffusion coefficients and with empirical chorus wave loss terms (as a function of energy, Kp and L). There is excellent agreement between the differential flux produced by the 1-D, Kp-driven, radial diffusion model and CRRES observations of differential electron flux at 0.976 MeV-even though the model does not include the effects of local internal acceleration sources. Our results highlight not only the importance of correct specification of radial diffusion coefficients for developing accurate models but also show significant promise for belt specification based on relatively simple models driven by solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed or geomagnetic indices such as Kp.

KEY POINTS

Analytic expressions for the radial diffusion coefficients are presentedThe coefficients do not dependent on energy or wave m valueThe electric field diffusion coefficient dominates over the magnetic.

Global model of low-frequency chorus (fLHR<f<0.1fce) from multiple satellite observations

Whistler mode chorus is an important magnetospheric emission, playing a dual role in the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt. Chorus is typically generated in the equatorial region in the frequency range 0.1-0.8 fce, where fce is the local electron gyrofrequency. However, as the waves propagate to higher latitudes, significant wave power can occur at frequencies below 0.1fce. Since this wave power is largely omitted in current radiation belt models, we construct a global model of low-frequency chorus, fLHR

KEY POINTS

Strong chorus waves can extend below 0.1 times local electron gyrofrequencyLow frequency chorus strongest at mid-latitudes in pre-noon sector for L*=4 to 8Low frequency chorus should be included in radiation belt models.

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Key Words

• whistler mode chorus

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MESH Headings Collapse

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Affiliation(s)

Nigel P Meredith British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council Cambridge, England
Richard B Horne British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council Cambridge, England
Wen Li Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, California, USA
Richard M Thorne Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, California, USA
Angélica Sicard-Piet Office National d'Etudes et Recherches Aérospatiales Toulouse, France

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Rapid local acceleration of relativistic radiation-belt electrons by magnetospheric chorus

Recent analysis of satellite data obtained during the 9 October 2012 geomagnetic storm identified the development of peaks in electron phase space density, which are compelling evidence for local electron acceleration in the heart of the outer radiation belt, but are inconsistent with acceleration by inward radial diffusive transport. However, the precise physical mechanism responsible for the acceleration on 9 October was not identified. Previous modelling has indicated that a magnetospheric electromagnetic emission known as chorus could be a potential candidate for local electron acceleration, but a definitive resolution of the importance of chorus for radiation-belt acceleration was not possible because of limitations in the energy range and resolution of previous electron observations and the lack of a dynamic global wave model. Here we report high-resolution electron observations obtained during the 9 October storm and demonstrate, using a two-dimensional simulation performed with a recently developed time-varying data-driven model, that chorus scattering explains the temporal evolution of both the energy and angular distribution of the observed relativistic electron flux increase. Our detailed modelling demonstrates the remarkable efficiency of wave acceleration in the Earth's outer radiation belt, and the results presented have potential application to Jupiter, Saturn and other magnetized astrophysical objects.

Electron acceleration in the heart of the Van Allen radiation belts

The Van Allen radiation belts contain ultrarelativistic electrons trapped in Earth's magnetic field. Since their discovery in 1958, a fundamental unanswered question has been how electrons can be accelerated to such high energies. Two classes of processes have been proposed: transport and acceleration of electrons from a source population located outside the radiation belts (radial acceleration) or acceleration of lower-energy electrons to relativistic energies in situ in the heart of the radiation belts (local acceleration). We report measurements from NASA's Van Allen Radiation Belt Storm Probes that clearly distinguish between the two types of acceleration. The observed radial profiles of phase space density are characteristic of local acceleration in the heart of the radiation belts and are inconsistent with a predominantly radial acceleration process.

A long-lived relativistic electron storage ring embedded in Earth's outer Van Allen belt

Since their discovery more than 50 years ago, Earth's Van Allen radiation belts have been considered to consist of two distinct zones of trapped, highly energetic charged particles. The outer zone is composed predominantly of megaelectron volt (MeV) electrons that wax and wane in intensity on time scales ranging from hours to days, depending primarily on external forcing by the solar wind. The spatially separated inner zone is composed of commingled high-energy electrons and very energetic positive ions (mostly protons), the latter being stable in intensity levels over years to decades. In situ energy-specific and temporally resolved spacecraft observations reveal an isolated third ring, or torus, of high-energy (>2 MeV) electrons that formed on 2 September 2012 and persisted largely unchanged in the geocentric radial range of 3.0 to ~3.5 Earth radii for more than 4 weeks before being disrupted (and virtually annihilated) by a powerful interplanetary shock wave passage.