Advancing application of satellite remote sensing technologies for linking atmospheric and built environment to health

Background

The intricate interplay between human well-being and the surrounding environment underscores contemporary discourse. Within this paradigm, comprehensive environmental monitoring holds the key to unraveling the intricate connections linking population health to environmental exposures. The advent of satellite remote sensing monitoring (SRSM) has revolutionized traditional monitoring constraints, particularly limited spatial coverage and resolution. This innovation finds profound utility in quantifying land covers and air pollution data, casting new light on epidemiological and geographical investigations. This dynamic application reveals the intricate web connecting public health, environmental pollution, and the built environment.

Objective

This comprehensive review navigates the evolving trajectory of SRSM technology, casting light on its role in addressing environmental and geographic health issues. The discussion hones in on how SRSM has recently magnified our understanding of the relationship between air pollutant exposure and population health. Additionally, this discourse delves into public health challenges stemming from shifts in urban morphology.

Methods

Utilizing the strategic keywords "SRSM," "air pollutant health risk," and "built environment," an exhaustive search unfolded across prestigious databases including the China National Knowledge Network (CNKI), PubMed and Web of Science. The Citespace tool further unveiled interconnections among resultant articles and research trends.

Results

Synthesizing insights from a myriad of articles spanning 1988 to 2023, our findings unveil how SRMS bridges gaps in ground-based monitoring through continuous spatial observations, empowering global air quality surveillance. High-resolution SRSM advances data precision, capturing multiple built environment impact factors. Its application to epidemiological health exposure holds promise as a pioneering tool for contemporary health research.

Conclusion

This review underscores SRSM's pivotal role in enriching geographic health studies, particularly in atmospheric pollution domains. The study illuminates how SRSM overcomes spatial resolution and data loss hurdles, enriching environmental monitoring tools and datasets. The path forward envisions the integration of cutting-edge remote sensing technologies, novel explorations of urban-public health associations, and an enriched assessment of built environment characteristics on public well-being.

Multi-spatiotemporal AOD trends and association with land use changes over the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during 2001-2021

Analyzing long-term variations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) is beneficial for determining high-pollutant-risk areas and formulating mitigation policies. In this study, multi-spatiotemporal trends and periodicity of AOD, as well as the persistence over the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2001 to 2021, were investigated by the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD), Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Hurst exponent. The results elucidate that AOD exhibits fluctuant variations during the 21-year period with the year 2012 as the turning point. There is a slight upward tendency (0.009 year^-1) in the pre-2012 period but a pronounced downward trend (- 0.03 year^-1) in the post-2012 period, suggesting an overall declining trend in the study area. The northern cities in the area present an increasing-stable-decreasing trend of monthly average AOD, whereas other cities have an increasing-fluctuating-decreasing trend over the study period. The decreasing rate in the western parts is higher than that in the eastern parts, like Zhaoqing, Jiangmen and Foshan city. A continuous decline of AOD is dominated over the study area, whereas an anti-persistence tendency is accumulated in the northeastern parts. Additionally, elevated AOD can be observed in unused land, water bodies and construction land, while grassland, cropland and woodland have lower AOD. The decreasing rate is larger when land-use types with high AOD are converted to those with low AOD; otherwise, the decreasing rate is smaller. The results have a great significance for improving the understanding of long-term variations of AOD, as well as providing a scientific basis to formulate environmental protection and mitigation practices.

Using deep ensemble forest for high-resolution mapping of PM2.5 from MODIS MAIAC AOD in Tehran, Iran

High-resolution mapping of PM2.5 concentration over Tehran city is challenging because of the complicated behavior of numerous sources of pollution and the insufficient number of ground air quality monitoring stations. Alternatively, high-resolution satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data can be employed for high-resolution mapping of PM2.5. For this purpose, different data-driven methods have been used in the literature. Recently, deep learning methods have demonstrated their ability to estimate PM2.5 from AOD data. However, these methods have several weaknesses in solving the problem of estimating PM2.5 from satellite AOD data. In this paper, the potential of the deep ensemble forest method for estimating the PM2.5 concentration from AOD data was evaluated. The results showed that the deep ensemble forest method with [Formula: see text] gives a higher accuracy of PM2.5 estimation than deep learning methods ([Formula: see text]) as well as classic data-driven methods such as random forest ([Formula: see text]). Additionally, the estimated values of PM2.5 using the deep ensemble forest algorithm were used along with ground data to generate a high-resolution map of PM2.5. Evaluation of produced PM2.5 map revealed the good performance of the deep ensemble forest for modeling the variation of PM2.5 in the city of Tehran.

PM2.5 Exposure and Health Risk Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Assessing personal exposure risk from PM2.5 air pollution poses challenges due to the limited availability of high spatial resolution data for PM2.5 and population density. This study introduced a seasonal spatial-temporal method of modeling PM2.5 distribution characteristics at a 1-km grid level based on remote sensing data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The high-accuracy population density data and the relative exposure risk model were used to assess the relationship between exposure to PM2.5 air pollution and public health. The results indicated that the spatial-temporal PM2.5 concentration could be simulated by MODIS images and GIS method and could provide high spatial resolution data sources for exposure risk assessment. PM2.5 air pollution risks were most serious in spring and winter, and high risks of environmental health hazards were mostly concentrated in densely populated areas in Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay, China. Policies to control the total population and pollution discharge need follow the principle of adaptation to local conditions in high-risk areas. Air quality maintenance and ecological maintenance should be carried out in low-risk areas to reduce exposure risk and improve environmental health.

High Spatiotemporal Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Estimation with Machine Learning Algorithm: A Case Study for Wildfire in California

As an aggregate of suspended particulate matter in the air, atmospheric aerosols can affect the regional climate. With the help of satellite remote sensing technology to retrieve AOD (aerosol optical depth) on a global or regional scale, accurate estimation of PM2.5 concentration has become an important task to quantify the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD and PM2.5. However, due to the limitations of satellite platforms, sensors, and inversion algorithms, the spatiotemporal resolution of current major AOD products is still relatively low. Meanwhile, for the impact of cloud, the AOD products often have a serious data gap problem, which also objectively limits the spatiotemporal coverage of predicted PM2.5 concentration. Therefore, how to effectively improve the spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of PM2.5 concentration under the requisite accuracy is still a grand challenge. In this study, the fused high spatial-temporal resolution AOD data in our previous study were used to estimate the ground PM2.5 concentration through machine learning algorithms, the deep belief network (DBN). The PM2.5 data had spatiotemporal autocorrelation in geostatistics and followed the Gaussian kernel distribution. Hence, the autocorrelation model modified by Gaussian kernel function integrated with DBN algorithm, named Geoi-DBN, was used to estimate PM2.5 concentration. The cross-validation results showed that the Geoi-DBN (R2 = 0.86, RMSE = 6.84 µg m−3) performed better than the original DBN (R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 10.46 µg m−3). The final high quality PM2.5 concentration data can be applied for urban air quality monitoring and related PM2.5 exposure risk assessment such as wildfire.

An Estimation Method for PM2.5 Based on Aerosol Optical Depth Obtained from Remote Sensing Image Processing and Meteorological Factors

Understanding the spatiotemporal variations in the mass concentrations of particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) in size is important for controlling environmental pollution. Currently, ground measurement points of PM2.5 in China are relatively discrete, thereby limiting spatial coverage. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from satellite remote sensing provide insights into spatiotemporal distributions for regional pollution sources. In this study, data from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AOD (1 km resolution) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and hourly PM2.5 concentration ground measurements from 2015 to 2020 in Dalian, China were used. Although trends in PM2.5 and AOD were consistent over time, there were seasonal differences. Spatial distributions of AOD and PM2.5 were consistent (R2 = 0.922), with higher PM2.5 values in industrial areas. The method of cross-dividing the test set by year was adopted, with AOD and meteorological factors as the input variable and PM2.5 as the output variable. A backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model of joint cross-validation was established; the stability of the model was evaluated. The trend in the predicted values of BPNN was consistent with the monitored values; the estimation result of the BPNN with the introduction of meteorological factors is better; coefficient of determination (R2) and RMSE standard deviation (SD) between the predicted values and the monitored values in the test set were 0.663–0.752 and 0.01–0.05 μg/m3, respectively. The BPNN was simpler and the training time was shorter compared with those of a regression model and support vector regression (SVR). This study demonstrated that BPNN could be effectively applied to the MAIAC AOD data to estimate PM2.5 concentrations.

Improving surface PM2.5 forecasts in the United States using an ensemble of chemical transport model outputs: 2. bias correction with satellite data for rural areas

This work serves as the second of a two-part study to improve surface PM2.5 forecasts in the continental U.S. through the integrated use of multi-satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products (MODIS Terra/Aqua and VIIRS DT/DB), multi chemical transport model (CTM) (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem and CMAQ) outputs and ground observations. In part I of the study, a multi-model ensemble Kalman filter (KF) technique using three CTM outputs and ground observations was developed to correct forecast bias and generate a single best forecast of PM2.5 for next day over non-rural areas that have surface PM2.5 measurements in the proximity of 125 km. Here, with AOD data, we extended the bias correction into rural areas where the closest air quality monitoring station is at least 125 - 300 km away. First, we ensembled all of satellite AOD products to yield the single best AOD. Second, we corrected daily PM2.5 in rural areas from multiple models through the AOD spatial pattern between these areas and non-rural areas, referred to as "extended ground truth" or EGT, for today. Lastly, we applied the KF technique to update the bias in the forecast for next day using the EGT. Our results find that the ensemble of bias-corrected daily PM2.5 from three models for both today and next day show the best performance. Together, the two-part study develops a multi-model and multi-AOD bias correction technique that has the potential to improve PM2.5 forecasts in both rural and non-rural areas in near real time, and be readily implemented at state levels.

Assessment of Aerosol Mechanisms and Aerosol Meteorology Feedback over an Urban Airshed in India Using a Chemical Transport Model

The direct aerosol-radiative effects in the WRF-Chem model account for scattering/absorption of solar radiation due to aerosols, while aerosol–cloud interactions result in modifying wet scavenging of the ambient concentrations as an indirect aerosol effect. In this study, impact of aerosol on meteorological parameters, PM10 and ozone concentrations are analysed which revealed (i) that a net decrease in shortwave and longwave radiation by direct feedback results in decrease in temperature up to 0.05 K, (ii) that a net increase due to longwave and shortwave radiation when both direct and indirect effects are taken together results in an increase in temperature up to 0.25 K (where the mean of temperature is 33.5 °C and standard deviation 2.13 °C), (iii) a marginal increase in boundary layer height of 50 m with increase in temperature with feedbacks, (iv) overall net increase in radiation by direct and indirect effect together result in an increase in PM10 concentration up to 12 μg m−3 (with PM10 mean as 84.5 μg m−3 and standard deviation 28 μg m−3) and an increase in ozone concentration up to 3 μg m−3 (with ozone mean as 29.65 μg m−3 and standard deviation 5.2 μg m−3) mainly due to net increase in temperature. Furthermore, impact of sensitivity of different aerosol mechanisms on PM10 concentrations was scrutinized for two different mechanisms that revealed underestimation by both of the mechanisms with MOSAIC scheme, showing less fractional bias than MADE/SORGAM. For the dust storm period, MOSAIC scheme simulated higher mass concentrations than MADE/SORGAM scheme and performed well for dust-storm days while closely capturing the peaks of high dust concentrations. This study is one of the first few to demonstrate the impact of both direct and indirect aerosol feedback on local meteorology and air quality using a meteorology–chemistry modelling framework; the WRF-Chem model in a tropical urban airshed in India located in semi-arid climatic zone. It is inferred that semi-arid climatic conditions behave in a vastly different manner than other climatic zones for direct and indirect radiative feedback effects.

Estimation of the PM2.5 and PM10 Mass Concentration over Land from FY-4A Aerosol Optical Depth Data

The purpose of this study is to estimate the particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) in China using the improved geographically and temporally weighted regression (IGTWR) model and Fengyun (FY-4A) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data. Based on the IGTWR model, the boundary layer height (BLH), relative humidity (RH), AOD, time, space, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are employed to estimate the PM2.5 and PM10. The main processes of this study are as follows: firstly, the feasibility of the AOD data from FY-4A in estimating PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations were analysed and confirmed by randomly selecting 5–6 and 9–10 June 2020 as an example. Secondly, hourly concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are estimated between 00:00 and 09:00 (UTC) each day. Specifically, the model estimates that the correlation coefficient R2 of PM2.5 is 0.909 and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 5.802 μg/m3, while the estimated R2 of PM10 is 0.915, and the RMSE is 12.939 μg/m3. Our high temporal resolution results reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of hourly PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations on the day. The results indicate that the use of data from the FY-4A satellite and an improved time–geographically weighted regression model for estimating PM2.5 and PM10 is feasible, and replacing land use classification data with NDVI facilitates model improvement.

Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Estimating PM2.5 Concentrations across Malaysia

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a hotspot region for atmospheric pollution and haze conditions, due to extensive forest, agricultural and peat fires. This study aims to estimate the PM2.5 concentrations across Malaysia using machine-learning (ML) models like Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), based on satellite AOD (aerosol optical depth) observations, ground measured air pollutants (NO2, SO2, CO, O3) and meteorological parameters (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction). The estimated PM2.5 concentrations for a two-year period (2018–2019) are evaluated against measurements performed at 65 air-quality monitoring stations located at urban, industrial, suburban and rural sites. PM2.5 concentrations varied widely between the stations, with higher values (mean of 24.2 ± 21.6 µg m−3) at urban/industrial stations and lower (mean of 21.3 ± 18.4 µg m−3) at suburban/rural sites. Furthermore, pronounced seasonal variability in PM2.5 is recorded across Malaysia, with highest concentrations during the dry season (June–September). Seven models were developed for PM2.5 predictions, i.e., separately for urban/industrial and suburban/rural sites, for the four dominant seasons (dry, wet and two inter-monsoon), and an overall model, which displayed accuracies in the order of R2 = 0.46–0.76. The validation analysis reveals that the RF model (R2 = 0.53–0.76) exhibits slightly better performance than SVR, except for the overall model. This is the first study conducted in Malaysia for PM2.5 estimations at a national scale combining satellite aerosol retrievals with ground-based pollutants, meteorological factors and ML techniques. The satisfactory prediction of PM2.5 concentrations across Malaysia allows a continuous monitoring of the pollution levels at remote areas with absence of measurement networks.

A multi-analysis approach for estimating regional health impacts from the 2017 Northern California wildfires

Smoke impacts from large wildfires are mounting, and the projection is for more such events in the future as the one experienced October 2017 in Northern California, and subsequently in 2018 and 2020. Further, the evidence is growing about the health impacts from these events which are also difficult to simulate. Therefore, we simulated air quality conditions using a suite of remotely-sensed data, surface observational data, chemical transport modeling with WRF-CMAQ, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods to arrive at datasets useful to air quality and health impact analyses. To demonstrate these analyses, we estimated the health impacts from smoke impacts during wildfires in October 8-20, 2017, in Northern California, when over 7 million people were exposed to Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy air quality conditions. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve overall results, however it was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. To improve these results, we applied one data fusion and three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across all cases, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. Overall, WRF-CMAQ simulations were biased high and the geostatistical methods were biased low. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in an exposure-response function. Estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% CI: 0, 196) with 47% attributable to wildland fire smoke.Implications: Large wildfires in the United States and in particular California are becoming increasingly common. Associated with these large wildfires are air quality and health impact to millions of people from the smoke. We simulated air quality conditions using a suite of remotely-sensed data, surface observational data, chemical transport modeling, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods to arrive at datasets useful to air quality and health impact analyses from the October 2017 Northern California wildfires. Temporary monitors deployed for the wildfires provided an important model evaluation dataset. Total estimated regional mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to the wildland fire smoke. This illustrates the profound effect that even a 12-day exposure to wildland fire smoke can have on human health.

Improving Estimates of PM2.5 Concentration and Chemical Composition by Application of High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and Creating Aerosol Types from Chemistry (CATCH) Algorithm

Improved characterization of ambient PM2.5 mass concentration and chemical speciation is a topic of interest in air quality and climate sciences. Over the past decades, considerable efforts have been made to improve ground-level PM2.5 using remotely sensed data. Here we present two new approaches for estimating atmospheric PM2.5 and chemical composition based on the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL)-retrieved aerosol extinction values and types and Creating Aerosol Types from Chemistry (CATCH)-derived aerosol chemical composition. The first methodology (CMAQ-HSRL-CH) improves EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) predictions by applying variable scaling factors derived using remotely-sensed information about aerosol vertical distribution and types and the CATCH algorithm. The second methodology (HSRL-CH) does not require regional model runs and can provide atmospheric PM2.5 mass concentration and chemical speciation using only the remotely sensed data and the CATCH algorithm. The resulting PM2.5 concentrations and chemical speciation derived for NASA DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from COlumn and VERtically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) Baltimore-Washington, D.C. Corridor (BWC) Campaign (2011) are compared to surface measurements from EPA's Air Quality Systems (AQS) network. The analysis shows that the CMAQ-HSRL-CH method leads to considerable improvement of CMAQ's predicted PM2.5 concentrations (R2 value increased from 0.37 to 0.63, the root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced from 11.9 to 7.2 μg m-3, and the normalized mean bias (NMB) was lowered from -46.0 to 4.6%). The HSRL-CH method showed statistics (R2=0.75, RMSE=8.6 μgm-3, and NMB=24.0%), which were better than the CMAQ prediction of PM2.5 alone and analogous to CMAQ-HSRL-CH. In addition to mass concentration, HSRL-CH can also provide aerosol chemical composition without specific model simulations. We expect that the HSRL-CH method will be able to make reliable estimates of PM2.5 concentration and chemical composition where HSRL data are available.

Satellite Formaldehyde to Support Model Evaluation

Formaldehyde (HCHO), a known carcinogen classified as a hazardous pollutant by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), is measured through monitoring networks across the U.S. Since these data are limited in spatial and temporal extent, model simulations from the U.S. EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are used to estimate ambient HCHO exposure for the EPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). Here, we employ satellite HCHO retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)-the NASA retrieval developed by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO), and the European Union Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) retrieval-to evaluate three CMAQ configurations, spanning the summers of 2011 and 2016, with differing biogenic emissions inputs and chemical mechanisms. These CMAQ configurations capture the general spatial and temporal behavior of both satellite retrievals, but underestimate column HCHO, particularly in the western U.S. In the southeastern U.S., the comparison with OMI HCHO highlights differences in modeled meteorology and biogenic emissions even with differences in satellite retrievals. All CMAQ configurations show low daily correlations with OMI HCHO (r = 0.26 - 0.38), however, we find higher monthly correlations (r = 0.52 - 0.73), and the models correlate best with the OMI-QA4ECV product. Compared to surface observations, we find improved agreement over a 24-hour period compared to afternoon-only, suggesting daily HCHO amounts are captured with more accuracy than afternoon amounts. This work highlights the potential for synergistic improvements in modeling and satellite retrievals to support near-surface HCHO estimates for the NATA and other applications.

Population exposure across central India to PM2.5 derived using remotely sensed products in a three-stage statistical model

Surface PM_2.5 concentrations are required for exposure assessment studies. Remotely sensed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) has been used to derive PM_2.5 where ground data is unavailable. However, two key challenges in estimating surface PM_2.5 from AOD using statistical models are (i) Satellite data gaps, and (ii) spatio-temporal variability in AOD-PM_2.5 relationships. In this study, we estimated spatially continuous (0.03° × 0.03°) daily surface PM_2.5 concentrations using MAIAC AOD over Madhya Pradesh (MP), central India for 2018 and 2019, and validated our results against surface measurements. Daily MAIAC AOD gaps were filled using MERRA-2 AOD. Imputed AOD together with MERRA-2 meteorology and land use information were then used to develop a linear mixed effect (LME) model. Finally, a geographically weighted regression was developed using the LME output to capture spatial variability in AOD-PM_2.5 relationship. Final Cross-Validation (CV) correlation coefficient, r², between modelled and observed PM_2.5 varied from 0.359 to 0.689 while the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) varied from 15.83 to 35.85 µg m^-3, over the entire study region during the study period. Strong seasonality was observed with winter seasons (2018 and 2019) PM_2.5 concentration (mean value 82.54 µg m^-3) being the highest and monsoon seasons being the lowest (mean value of 32.10 µg m^-3). Our results show that MP had a mean PM_2.5 concentration of 58.19 µg m^-3 and 56.32 µg m^-3 for 2018 and 2019, respectively, which likely caused total premature deaths of 0.106 million (0.086, 0.128) at the 95% confidence interval including 0.056 million (0.045, 0.067) deaths due to Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), 0.037 million (0.031, 0.045) due to strokes, 0.012 million (0.009, 0.014) due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), and 1.2 thousand (1.0, 1.5) due to lung cancer (LNC) during this period.

Improving Surface PM2.5 Forecasts in the United States Using an Ensemble of Chemical Transport Model Outputs: 1. Bias Correction With Surface Observations in Nonrural Areas

This work is the first of a two-part study that aims to develop a computationally efficient bias correction framework to improve surface PM_2.5 forecasts in the United States. Here, an ensemble-based Kalman filter (KF) technique is developed primarily for nonrural areas with approximately 500 surface observation sites for PM_2.5 and applied to three (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem, and WRF-CMAQ) chemical transport model (CTM) hindcast outputs for June 2012. While all CTMs underestimate daily surface PM_2.5 mass concentration by 20-50%, KF correction is effective for improving each CTM forecast. Subsequently, two ensemble methods are formulated: (1) the arithmetic mean ensemble (AME) that equally weights each model and (2) the optimized ensemble (OPE) that calculates the individual model weights by minimizing the least-square errors. While the OPE shows superior performance than the AME, the combination of either the AME or the OPE with a KF performs better than the OPE alone, indicating the effectiveness of the KF technique. Overall, the combination of a KF with the OPE shows the best results. Lastly, the Successive Correction Method (SCM) was applied to spread the bias correction from model grids with surface PM_2.5 observations to the grids lacking ground observations by using a radius of influence of 125 km derived from surface observations, which further improves the forecast of surface PM_2.5 at the national scale. Our findings provide the foundation for the second part of this study that uses satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) products to further improve the forecast of surface PM_2.5 in rural areas by performing statistical analysis of model output.

Global Distribution of Column Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth to Surface PM2.5 Relationships

Using a combined Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) product at 0.1 × 0.1-degree spatial resolution and collocated surface PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm) monitors, we provide a global five-year (2015–2019) assessment of the spatial and seasonal AOD–PM2.5 relationships of slope, intercepts, and correlation coefficients. Only data from ground monitors accessible through an open air-quality portal that are available to the worldwide community for air quality research and decision making are used in this study. These statistics that are reported 1 × 1-degree resolution are important since satellite AOD is often used in conjunction with spatially limited surface PM2.5 monitors to estimate global distributions of surface particulate matter concentrations. Results indicate that more than 3000 ground monitors are now available for PM2.5 studies. While there is a large spread in correlation coefficients between AOD and PM2.5, globally, averaged over all seasons, the correlation coefficient is 0.55 with a unit AOD producing 54 μgm−3 of PM2.5 (Slope) with an intercept of 8 μgm−3. While the number of surface PM2.5 measurements has increased by a factor of 10 over the last decade, a concerted effort is still needed to continue to increase these monitors in areas that have no surface monitors, especially in large population centers that will further leverage the strengths of satellite data.

Wildfire and prescribed burning impacts on air quality in the United States

Air quality impacts from wildfires have been dramatic in recent years, with millions of people exposed to elevated and sometimes hazardous fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) concentrations for extended periods. Fires emit particulate matter (PM) and gaseous compounds that can negatively impact human health and reduce visibility. While the overall trend in U.S. air quality has been improving for decades, largely due to implementation of the Clean Air Act, seasonal wildfires threaten to undo this in some regions of the United States. Our understanding of the health effects of smoke is growing with regard to respiratory and cardiovascular consequences and mortality. The costs of these health outcomes can exceed the billions already spent on wildfire suppression. In this critical review, we examine each of the processes that influence wildland fires and the effects of fires, including the natural role of wildland fire, forest management, ignitions, emissions, transport, chemistry, and human health impacts. We highlight key data gaps and examine the complexity and scope and scale of fire occurrence, estimated emissions, and resulting effects on regional air quality across the United States. The goal is to clarify which areas are well understood and which need more study. We conclude with a set of recommendations for future research.

IMPLICATIONS

In the recent decade the area of wildfires in the United States has increased dramatically and the resulting smoke has exposed millions of people to unhealthy air quality. In this critical review we examine the key factors and impacts from fires including natural role of wildland fire, forest management, ignitions, emissions, transport, chemistry and human health.

Estimation of spatially continuous daytime particulate matter concentrations under all sky conditions through the synergistic use of satellite-based AOD and numerical models

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) products are one of main predictors to estimate ground-level particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) concentrations. Since AOD products, however, are only provided under high-quality conditions, missing values usually exist in areas such as clouds, cloud shadows, and bright surfaces. In this study, spatially continuous AOD and subsequent PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were estimated over East Asia using satellite- and model-based data and auxiliary data in a Random Forest (RF) approach. Data collected from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI; 8 times per day) in 2016 were used to develop AOD and PM models. Three schemes (i.e. G1, A1, and A2) were proposed for AOD modeling according to target AOD data (GOCI AOD and AERONET AOD) and the existence of satellite-derived AOD. The A2 scheme showed the best performance (validation R² of 0.74 and prediction R² of 0.73 when GOCI AOD did not exist) and the resultant AOD was used to estimate spatially continuous PM concentrations. The PM models with location information produced successful estimation results with R² of 0.88 and 0.90, and rRMSE of 26.9 and 27.2% for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, respectively. The spatial distribution maps of PM well captured the seasonal and spatial characteristics of PM reported in the literature, which implies the proposed approaches can be adopted for an operational estimation of spatially continuous AOD and PMs under all sky conditions.

Estimating Ground-Level Particulate Matter in Five Regions of China Using Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used to estimate near-surface particulate matter (PM). In this study, ground-measured data from the Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research network of China (CARE-China) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) were used to evaluate the accuracy of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) AOD data for different aerosol types. These four aerosol types were from dust, smoke, urban, and uncertain and a fifth “type” was included for unclassified (i.e., total) aerosols. The correlation for dust aerosol was the worst (R2 = 0.15), whereas the correlations for smoke and urban types were better (R2 values of 0.69 and 0.55, respectively). The mixed-effects model was used to estimate the PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), Sichuan–Chongqing (SC), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Middle Yangtze River (MYR) using the classified aerosol type and unclassified aerosol type methods. The results suggest that the cross validation (CV) of different aerosol types has higher correlation coefficients than that of the unclassified aerosol type. For example, the R2 values for dust, smoke, urban, uncertain, and unclassified aerosol types BTH were 0.76, 0.85, 0.82, 0.82, and 0.78, respectively. Compared with the daily PM2.5 concentrations, the air quality levels estimated using the classified aerosol type method were consistent with ground-measured PM2.5, and the relative error was low (most RE was within ±20%). The classified aerosol type method improved the accuracy of the PM2.5 estimation compared to the unclassified method, although there was an overestimation or underestimation in some regions. The seasonal distribution of PM2.5 was analyzed and the PM2.5 concentrations were high during winter, low during summer, and moderate during spring and autumn. Spatially, the higher PM2.5 concentrations were predominantly distributed in areas of human activity and industrial areas.

A Robust Deep Learning Approach for Spatiotemporal Estimation of Satellite AOD and PM2.5

Accurate estimation of fine particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) at a high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial for the evaluation of its health effects. Previous studies face multiple challenges including limited ground measurements and availability of spatiotemporal covariates. Although the multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) retrieves satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) at a high spatiotemporal resolution, massive non-random missingness considerably limits its application in PM2.5 estimation. Here, a deep learning approach, i.e., bootstrap aggregating (bagging) of autoencoder-based residual deep networks, was developed to make robust imputation of MAIAC AOD and further estimate PM2.5 at a high spatial (1 km) and temporal (daily) resolution. The base model consisted of autoencoder-based residual networks where residual connections were introduced to improve learning performance. Bagging of residual networks was used to generate ensemble predictions for better accuracy and uncertainty estimates. As a case study, the proposed approach was applied to impute daily satellite AOD and subsequently estimate daily PM2.5 in the Jing-Jin-Ji metropolitan region of China in 2015. The presented approach achieved competitive performance in AOD imputation (mean test R2: 0.96; mean test RMSE: 0.06) and PM2.5 estimation (test R2: 0.90; test RMSE: 22.3 μg/m3). In the additional independent tests using ground AERONET AOD and PM2.5 measurements at the monitoring station of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, this approach achieved high R2 (0.82–0.97). Compared with the state-of-the-art machine learning method, XGBoost, the proposed approach generated more reasonable spatial variation for predicted PM2.5 surfaces. Publically available covariates used included meteorology, MERRA2 PBLH and AOD, coordinates, and elevation. Other covariates such as cloud fractions or land-use were not used due to unavailability. The results of validation and independent testing demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in exposure assessment of PM2.5 using satellite AOD having massive missing values.

Optimal Band Analysis of a Space-Based Multispectral Sensor for Urban Air Pollutant Detection

Air pollution continues to attract more and more public attention. Space-based infrared sensors provide a measure to monitor air quality in large areas. In this paper, a band selection procedure of space-based infrared sensors is proposed for urban air pollutant detection, in which observation geometry, ground and atmosphere radiant characteristics, and sensor system noise are integrated. The physics-based atmospheric radiative transfer model is reviewed and used to calculate total spectral radiance at the sensor aperture. Spectral filters with different central wavelength and bandwidth are designed to calculate contrasts in various bands, which can be presented as a two-dimensional matrix. Minimal available bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio threshold are set to characterize the impacts of the sensor system. In this way, the band with higher contrast is assumed to have better detection performance. The proposed procedure is implemented to analyze an optimal band for detecting four types of gaseous pollutants and discriminating aerosol particle pollution to demonstrate usefulness. Simulation results show that narrower bands tend to achieve better performance while the optimal band is related to the available minimal bandwidth and pollutant density. In addition, the bands that are near optimal can achieve similar performance.

Hourly PM2.5 Estimates from a Geostationary Satellite Based on an Ensemble Learning Algorithm and Their Spatiotemporal Patterns over Central East China

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depths (AODs) have been widely used to estimate surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations over areas that do not have PM2.5 monitoring sites. To date, most studies have focused on estimating daily PM2.5 concentrations using polar-orbiting satellite data (e.g., from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), which are inadequate for understanding the evolution of PM2.5 distributions. This study estimates hourly PM2.5 concentrations from Himawari AOD and meteorological parameters using an ensemble learning model. We analyzed the spatial agglomeration patterns of the estimated PM2.5 concentrations over central East China. The estimated PM2.5 concentrations agree well with ground-based data with an overall cross-validated coefficient of determination of 0.86 and a root-mean-square error of 17.3 μg m−3. Satellite-estimated PM2.5 concentrations over central East China display a north-to-south decreasing gradient with the highest concentration in winter and the lowest concentration in summer. Diurnally, concentrations are higher in the morning and lower in the afternoon. PM2.5 concentrations exhibit a significant spatial agglomeration effect in central East China. The errors in AOD do not necessarily affect the retrieval accuracy of PM2.5 proportionally, especially if the error is systematic. High-frequency spatiotemporal PM2.5 variations can improve our understanding of the formation and transportation processes of regional pollution episodes.

An ensemble-based model of PM2.5 concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution

Various approaches have been proposed to model PM2.5 in the recent decade, with satellite-derived aerosol optical depth, land-use variables, chemical transport model predictions, and several meteorological variables as major predictor variables. Our study used an ensemble model that integrated multiple machine learning algorithms and predictor variables to estimate daily PM2.5 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km across the contiguous United States. We used a generalized additive model that accounted for geographic difference to combine PM2.5 estimates from neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting. The three machine learning algorithms were based on multiple predictor variables, including satellite data, meteorological variables, land-use variables, elevation, chemical transport model predictions, several reanalysis datasets, and others. The model training results from 2000 to 2015 indicated good model performance with a 10-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.86 for daily PM2.5 predictions. For annual PM2.5 estimates, the cross-validated R2 was 0.89. Our model demonstrated good performance up to 60 μg/m3. Using trained PM2.5 model and predictor variables, we predicted daily PM2.5 from 2000 to 2015 at every 1 km × 1 km grid cell in the contiguous United States. We also used localized land-use variables within 1 km × 1 km grids to downscale PM2.5 predictions to 100 m × 100 m grid cells. To characterize uncertainty, we used meteorological variables, land-use variables, and elevation to model the monthly standard deviation of the difference between daily monitored and predicted PM2.5 for every 1 km × 1 km grid cell. This PM2.5 prediction dataset, including the downscaled and uncertainty predictions, allows epidemiologists to accurately estimate the adverse health effect of PM2.5. Compared with model performance of individual base learners, an ensemble model would achieve a better overall estimation. It is worth exploring other ensemble model formats to synthesize estimations from different models or from different groups to improve overall performance.

PM2.5 Spatiotemporal Evolution and Drivers in the Yangtze River Delta between 2005 and 2015

High concentrations of PM2.5 are a primary cause of haze in the lower atmosphere. A better understanding of the spatial heterogeneity and driving factors of PM2.5 concentrations is important for effective regional prevention and control. In this study, we carried out remote sensing inversion of PM2.5 concentration data over a long time series and used spatial statistical analyses and a geographical detector model to reveal the spatial distribution and variation characteristics of PM2.5 and the main influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2015. Our results show that (1) The average annual PM2.5 concentration in the Yangtze River Delta prior to 2007 displayed an increasing trend, followed by a decreasing trend after 2007 which eventually stabilized; and (2) climate regionalization and geomorphology were the dominant natural factors driving PM2.5 concentration diffusion, while total carbon dioxide emissions and population density were the dominant socioeconomic factors affecting the formation of PM2.5. Natural factors and socioeconomic factors together lead to PM2.5 pollution. These findings provide an interpretation of PM2.5 spatial distribution and the mechanisms influencing PM2.5 pollution, which can help the Chinese government develop effective abatement strategies.

Estimation of High-Resolution Daily Ground-Level PM2.5 Concentration in Beijing 2013–2017 Using 1 km MAIAC AOT Data

High-spatiotemporal-resolution PM2.5 data are critical to assessing the impacts of prolonged exposure to PM2.5 on human health, especially for urban areas. Satellite-derived aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is highly correlated to ground-level PM2.5, providing an effective way to reveal spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 across urban landscapes. In this paper, Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AOT and ground-based PM2.5 measurements were fused to estimate daily ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing for 2013–2017 at 1 km resolution through a linear mixed effect model (LMEM). The results showed a good agreement between the estimated and measured PM2.5 and effectively revealed the characteristics of its spatiotemporal variations across Beijing: (1) the PM2.5 level is higher in the central and southern areas, while it is lower in the northern and northwestern areas; (2) the PM2.5 level is higher in autumn and winter, while it is lower in spring and summer. Moreover, annual PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 24.03% for the whole of Beijing and 31.46% for the downtown area from 2013 to 2017. The PM2.5 data products we generated can be used to assess the long-term impacts of PM2.5 on human health and support relevant government policy decision-making, and the methodology can be applied to other heavily polluted urban areas.

Retrieval of Daily PM2.5 Concentrations Using Nonlinear Methods: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with adverse health impacts on the population. Satellite observations and machine learning algorithms have been applied to improve the accuracy of the prediction of PM2.5 concentrations. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 retrieval approach using machine-learning methods, based on aerosol products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the NASA Earth Observation System (EOS) Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites, near-ground meteorological variables from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), and ground-based PM2.5 observation data. Four models, which are orthogonal regression (OR), regression tree (Rpart), random forests (RF), and support vector machine (SVM), were tested and compared in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of China in 2015. Aerosol products derived from the Terra and Aqua satellite sensors were also compared. The 10-repeat 5-fold cross-validation (10 × 5 CV) method was subsequently used to evaluate the performance of the different aerosol products and the four models. The results show that the performance of the Aqua dataset was better than that of the Terra dataset, and that the RF algorithm has the best predictive performance (Terra: R = 0.77, RMSE = 43.51 μg/m3; Aqua: R = 0.85, RMSE = 33.90 μg/m3). This study shows promise for predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of PM2.5 using the RF model and Aqua aerosol product with the assistance of PM2.5 site data.

Predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations in Texas using high-resolution satellite aerosol optical depth

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The regulatory monitoring data of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5μm (PM_2.5) in Texas have limited spatial and temporal coverage. The purpose of this study is to estimate the ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations on a daily basis using satellite-retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in the state of Texas.

METHODS

We obtained the AOD values at 1-km resolution generated through the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm based on the images retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites. We then developed mixed-effects models based on AODs, land use features, geographic characteristics, and weather conditions, and the day-specific as well as site-specific random effects to estimate the PM_2.5 concentrations (μg/m³) in the state of Texas during the period 2008-2013. The mixed-effects models' performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²) and square root of the mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) from ten-fold cross-validation, which randomly selected 90% of the observations for training purpose and 10% of the observations for assessing the models' true prediction ability.

RESULTS

Mixed-effects regression models showed good prediction performance (R² values from 10-fold cross validation: 0.63-0.69). The model performance varied by regions and study years, and the East region of Texas, and year of 2009 presented relatively higher prediction precision (R²: 0.62 for the East region; R²: 0.69 for the year of 2009). The PM_2.5 concentrations generated through our developed models at 1-km grid cells in the state of Texas showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2013 and a higher reduction of predicted PM_2.5 in more polluted areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that mixed-effects regression models developed based on MAIAC AOD are a feasible approach to predict ground-level PM_2.5 in Texas. Predicted PM_2.5 concentrations at the 1-km resolution on a daily basis can be used for epidemiological studies to investigate short- and long-term health impact of PM_2.5 in Texas.

Constraining chemical transport PM2.5 modeling outputs using surface monitor measurements and satellite retrievals: application over the San Joaquin Valley

Advances in satellite retrieval of aerosol type can improve the accuracy of near-surface air quality characterization by providing broad regional context and decreasing metric uncertainties and errors. The frequent, spatially extensive and radiometrically consistent instantaneous constraints can be especially useful in areas away from ground monitors and progressively downwind of emission sources. We present a physical approach to constraining regional-scale estimates of PM2.5, its major chemical component species estimates, and related uncertainty estimates of chemical transport model (CTM; e.g., the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model) outputs. This approach uses ground-based monitors where available, combined with aerosol optical depth and qualitative constraints on aerosol size, shape, and light-absorption properties from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on the NASA Earth Observing System's Terra satellite. The CTM complements these data by providing complete spatial and temporal coverage. Unlike widely used approaches that train statistical regression models, the technique developed here leverages CTM physical constraints such as the conservation of aerosol mass and meteorological consistency, independent of observations. The CTM also aids in identifying relationships between observed species concentrations and emission sources. Aerosol air mass types over populated regions of central California are characterized using satellite data acquired during the 2013 San Joaquin field deployment of the NASA Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) project. We investigate the optimal application of incorporating 275 m horizontal-resolution aerosol air-mass-type maps and total-column aerosol optical depth from the MISR Research Aerosol retrieval algorithm (RA) into regional-scale CTM output. The impact on surface PM2.5 fields progressively downwind of large single sources is evaluated using contemporaneous surface observations. Spatiotemporal R 2 and RMSE values for the model, constrained by both satellite and surface monitor measurements based on 10-fold cross-validation, are 0.79 and 0.33 for PM2.5, 0.88 and 0.65 for NO3 -, 0.78 and 0.23 for SO4 2-, and 1.01 for NH+, 0.73 and 0.23 for OC, and 0.31 and 0.65 for EC, respectively. Regional cross-validation temporal and spatiotemporal R2 results for the satellite-based PM2.5 improve by 30 % and 13 %, respectively, in comparison to unconstrained CTM simulations and provide finer spatial resolution. SO4 2- cross-validation values showed the largest spatial and spatiotemporal R2 improvement, with a 43 % increase. Assessing this physical technique in a well- instrumented region opens the possibility of applying it globally, especially over areas where surface air quality measurements are scarce or entirely absent.

Real-Time Estimation of Population Exposure to PM2.5 Using Mobile- and Station-Based Big Data

Extremely high fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration has been a topic of special concern in recent years because of its important and sensitive relation with health risks. However, many previous PM_2.5 exposure assessments have practical limitations, due to the assumption that population distribution or air pollution levels are spatially stationary and temporally constant and people move within regions of generally the same air quality throughout a day or other time periods. To deal with this challenge, we propose a novel method to achieve the real-time estimation of population exposure to PM_2.5 in China by integrating mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) big data and station-based PM_2.5 observations. Nationwide experiments show that the proposed method can yield the estimation of population exposure to PM_2.5 concentrations and cumulative inhaled PM_2.5 masses with a 3-h updating frequency. Compared with the census-based method, it introduced the dynamics of population distribution into the exposure estimation, thereby providing an improved way to better assess the population exposure to PM_2.5 at different temporal scales. Additionally, the proposed method and dataset can be easily extended to estimate other ambient pollutant exposures such as PM₁₀, O₃, SO₂, and NO₂, and may hold potential utilities in supporting the environmental exposure assessment and related policy-driven environmental actions.

A hybrid model for spatially and temporally resolved ozone exposures in the continental United States

Ground-level ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, which exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability in its concentration level. Existing modeling approaches for ground-level ozone include chemical transport models, land-use regression, Kriging, and data fusion of chemical transport models with monitoring data. Each of these methods has both strengths and weaknesses. Combining those complementary approaches could improve model performance. Meanwhile, satellite-based total column ozone, combined with ozone vertical profile, is another potential input. The authors propose a hybrid model that integrates the above variables to achieve spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments for ground-level ozone. The authors used a neural network for its capacity to model interactions and nonlinearity. Convolutional layers, which use convolution kernels to aggregate nearby information, were added to the neural network to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The authors trained the model with the Air Quality System (AQS) 8-hr daily maximum ozone in the continental United States from 2000 to 2012 and tested it with left out monitoring sites. Cross-validated R² on the left out monitoring sites ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 (mean 0.76) for predictions on 1 km × 1 km grid cells, which indicates good model performance. Model performance remains good even at low ozone concentrations. The prediction results facilitate epidemiological studies to assess the health effect of ozone in the long term and the short term.

IMPLICATIONS

Ozone monitors do not provide full data coverage over the United States, which is an obstacle to assess the health effect of ozone when monitoring data are not available. This paper used a hybrid approach to combine satellite-based ozone measurements, chemical transport model simulations, land-use terms, and other auxiliary variables to obtain spatially and temporally resolved ground-level ozone estimation.

Assessing PM2.5 Exposures with High Spatiotemporal Resolution across the Continental United States

A number of models have been developed to estimate PM2.5 exposure, including satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) models, land-use regression, or chemical transport model simulation, all with both strengths and weaknesses. Variables like normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface reflectance, absorbing aerosol index, and meteoroidal fields are also informative about PM2.5 concentrations. Our objective is to establish a hybrid model which incorporates multiple approaches and input variables to improve model performance. To account for complex atmospheric mechanisms, we used a neural network for its capacity to model nonlinearity and interactions. We used convolutional layers, which aggregate neighboring information, into a neural network to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We trained the neural network for the continental United States from 2000 to 2012 and tested it with left out monitors. Ten-fold cross-validation revealed a good model performance with a total R(2) of 0.84 on the left out monitors. Regional R(2) could be even higher for the Eastern and Central United States. Model performance was still good at low PM2.5 concentrations. Then, we used the trained neural network to make daily predictions of PM2.5 at 1 km × 1 km grid cells. This model allows epidemiologists to access PM2.5 exposure in both the short-term and the long-term.

Comparison of Four Ground-Level PM2.5 Estimation Models Using PARASOL Aerosol Optical Depth Data from China

Satellite remote sensing is of considerable importance for estimating ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations to support environmental agencies monitoring air quality. However, most current studies have focused mainly on the application of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) to predict PM_2.5 concentrations, while PARASOL AOD, which is sensitive to fine-mode aerosols over land surfaces, has received little attention. In this study, we compared a linear regression model, a quadratic regression model, a power regression model and a logarithmic regression model, which were developed using PARASOL level 2 AOD collected in China from 18 January 2013 to 10 October 2013. We obtained R (correlation coefficient) values of 0.64, 0.63, 0.62, and 0.57 for the four models when they were cross validated with the observed values. Furthermore, after all the data were classified into six levels according to the Air Quality Index (AQI), a low level of statistical significance between the four empirical models was found when the ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations were greater than 75 μg/m³. The maximum R value was 0.44 (for the logarithmic regression model and the power model), and the minimum R value was 0.28 (for the logarithmic regression model and the power model) when the PM_2.5 concentrations were less than 75 μg/m³. We also discussed uncertainty sources and possible improvements.

Exploring the Uncertainty Associated with Satellite-Based Estimates of Premature Mortality due to Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter

The negative impacts of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure on human health are a primary motivator for air quality research. However, estimates of the air pollution health burden vary considerably and strongly depend on the datasets and methodology. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been widely used to overcome limited coverage from surface monitoring and to assess the global population exposure to PM_2.5 and the associated premature mortality. Here we quantify the uncertainty in determining the burden of disease using this approach, discuss different methods and datasets, and explain sources of discrepancies among values in the literature. For this purpose we primarily use the MODIS satellite observations in concert with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We contrast results in the United States and China for the years 2004-2011. Using the Burnett et al. (2014) integrated exposure response function, we estimate that in the United States, exposure to PM_2.5 accounts for approximately 2% of total deaths compared to 14% in China (using satellite-based exposure), which falls within the range of previous estimates. The difference in estimated mortality burden based solely on a global model vs. that derived from satellite is approximately 14% for the U.S. and 2% for China on a nationwide basis, although regionally the differences can be much greater. This difference is overshadowed by the uncertainty in the methodology for deriving PM_2.5 burden from satellite observations, which we quantify to be on the order of 20% due to uncertainties in the AOD-to-surface-PM_2.5 relationship, 10% due to the satellite observational uncertainty, and 30% or greater uncertainty associated with the application of concentration response functions to estimated exposure.

Daily Estimation of Ground-Level PM2.5 Concentrations over Beijing Using 3 km Resolution MODIS AOD

Estimating exposures to PM2.5 within urban areas requires surface PM2.5 concentrations at high temporal and spatial resolutions. We developed a mixed effects model to derive daily estimations of surface PM2.5 levels in Beijing, using the 3 km resolution satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) calibrated daily by the newly available high-density surface measurements. The mixed effects model accounts for daily variations of AOD-PM2.5 relationships and shows good performance in model predictions (R(2) of 0.81-0.83) and cross-validations (R(2) of 0.75-0.79). Satellite derived population-weighted mean PM2.5 for Beijing was 51.2 μg/m(3) over the study period (Mar 2013 to Apr 2014), 46% higher than China's annual-mean PM2.5 standard of 35 μg/m(3). We estimated that more than 19.2 million people (98% of Beijing's population) are exposed to harmful level of long-term PM2.5 pollution. During 25% of the days with model data, the population-weighted mean PM2.5 exceeded China's daily PM2.5 standard of 75 μg/m(3). Predicted high-resolution daily PM2.5 maps are useful to identify pollution "hot spots" and estimate short- and long-term exposure. We further demonstrated that a good calibration of the satellite data requires a relatively large number of ground-level PM2.5 monitoring sites and more are still needed in Beijing.

High-Resolution Satellite-Derived PM2.5 from Optimal Estimation and Geographically Weighted Regression over North America

We used a geographically weighted regression (GWR) statistical model to represent bias of fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) derived from a 1 km optimal estimate (OE) aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite retrieval that used AOD-to-PM2.5 relationships from a chemical transport model (CTM) for 2004-2008 over North America. This hybrid approach combined the geophysical understanding and global applicability intrinsic to the CTM relationships with the knowledge provided by observational constraints. Adjusting the OE PM2.5 estimates according to the GWR-predicted bias yielded significant improvement compared with unadjusted long-term mean values (R(2) = 0.82 versus R(2) = 0.62), even when a large fraction (70%) of sites were withheld for cross-validation (R(2) = 0.78) and developed seasonal skill (R(2) = 0.62-0.89). The effect of individual GWR predictors on OE PM2.5 estimates additionally provided insight into the sources of uncertainty for global satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates. These predictor-driven effects imply that local variability in surface elevation and urban emissions are important sources of uncertainty in geophysical calculations of the AOD-to-PM2.5 relationship used in satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates over North America, and potentially worldwide.

Spatial Variation of the Relationship between PM 2.5 Concentrations and Meteorological Parameters in China

Epidemiological studies around the world have reported that fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is closely associated with human health. The distribution of PM_2.5 concentrations is influenced by multiple geographic and socioeconomic factors. Using a remote-sensing-derived PM_2.5 dataset, this paper explores the relationship between PM_2.5 concentrations and meteorological parameters and their spatial variance in China for the period 2001–2010. The spatial variations of the relationships between the annual average PM_2.5, the annual average precipitation (AAP), and the annual average temperature (AAT) were evaluated using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that PM_2.5 had a strong and stable correlation with meteorological parameters. In particular, PM_2.5 had a negative correlation with precipitation and a positive correlation with temperature. In addition, the relationship between the variables changed over space, and the strong negative correlation between PM_2.5 and the AAP mainly appeared in the warm temperate semihumid region and northern subtropical humid region in 2001 and 2010, with some localized differences. The strong positive correlation between the PM_2.5 and the AAT mainly occurred in the mid-temperate semiarid region, the humid, semihumid, and semiarid warm temperate regions, and the northern subtropical humid region in 2001 and 2010.

Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter

BACKGROUND

More than a decade of satellite observations offers global information about the trend and magnitude of human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we developed improved global exposure estimates of ambient PM2.5 mass and trend using PM2.5 concentrations inferred from multiple satellite instruments.

METHODS

We combined three satellite-derived PM2.5 sources to produce global PM2.5 estimates at about 10 km × 10 km from 1998 through 2012. For each source, we related total column retrievals of aerosol optical depth to near-ground PM2.5 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to represent local aerosol optical properties and vertical profiles. We collected 210 global ground-based PM2.5 observations from the literature to evaluate our satellite-based estimates with values measured in areas other than North America and Europe.

RESULTS

We estimated that global population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations increased 0.55 μg/m3/year (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67) (2.1%/year; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) from 1998 through 2012. Increasing PM2.5 in some developing regions drove this global change, despite decreasing PM2.5 in some developed regions. The estimated proportion of the population of East Asia living above the World Health Organization (WHO) Interim Target-1 of 35 μg/m3 increased from 51% in 1998-2000 to 70% in 2010-2012. In contrast, the North American proportion above the WHO Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 fell from 62% in 1998-2000 to 19% in 2010-2012. We found significant agreement between satellite-derived estimates and ground-based measurements outside North America and Europe (r = 0.81; n = 210; slope = 0.68). The low bias in satellite-derived estimates suggests that true global concentrations could be even greater.

CONCLUSIONS

Satellite observations provide insight into global long-term changes in ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Satellite-derived estimates and ground-based PM2.5 observations from this study are available for public use.

Global chemical composition of ambient fine particulate matter for exposure assessment

Epidemiologic and health impact studies are inhibited by the paucity of global, long-term measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter. We inferred PM2.5 chemical composition at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 2004-2008 by combining aerosol optical depth retrieved from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments, with coincident profile and composition information from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Evaluation of the satellite-model PM2.5 composition data set with North American in situ measurements indicated significant spatial agreement for secondary inorganic aerosol, particulate organic mass, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt. We found that global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were dominated by particulate organic mass (11.9 ± 7.3 μg/m(3)), secondary inorganic aerosol (11.1 ± 5.0 μg/m(3)), and mineral dust (11.1 ± 7.9 μg/m(3)). Secondary inorganic PM2.5 concentrations exceeded 30 μg/m(3) over East China. Sensitivity simulations suggested that population-weighted ambient PM2.5 from biofuel burning (11 μg/m(3)) could be almost as large as from fossil fuel combustion sources (17 μg/m(3)). These estimates offer information about global population exposure to the chemical components and sources of PM2.5.

Analysis of spatial and seasonal distributions of MODIS aerosol optical properties and ground-based measurements of mass concentrations in the Yellow Sea region in 2009

Satellite-retrieved data on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) using a moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) were used to analyze large-scale distributions of atmospheric aerosols in East Asia. AOD was relatively high in March (0.44 ± 0.25) and low in September (0.24 ± 0.21) in the East Asian region in 2009. Sandstorms originating from the deserts and dry areas in northern China and Mongolia were transported on a massive scale during the springtime, thus contributing to the high AOD in East Asia. However, whereas PM10 with diameters ≤10 μm was the highest in February at Anmyon, Cheongwon, and Ulleung, located leeward about halfway through the Korean Peninsula, AOD rose to its highest in May. The growth of hygroscopic aerosols attendant on increases in relative humidity prior to the Asian monsoon season contributed to a high AOD level in May. AE typically appears at high levels (1.30 ± 0.37) in August due to anthropogenic aerosols originating from the industrial areas in eastern China, while AOD stays low in summer due to the removal process caused by rainfall. The linear correlation coefficients of the MODIS AOD and ground-based mass concentrations of PM10 at Anmyon, Cheongwon, and Ulleung were measured at 0.4~0.6. Four cases (6 days) of mineral dustfall from sandstorms and six cases (12 days) of anthropogenically polluted particles were observed in the central area of the Korean Peninsula in 2009. PM10 mass concentrations increased at both Anmyon and Cheongwon in the cases of mineral dustfall and anthropogenically polluted particles. Cases of dustfall from sandstorms and anthropogenic polluted particles, with increasing PM10 mass concentrations, showed higher AOD values in the Yellow Sea region.

Comparison of geostatistical interpolation and remote sensing techniques for estimating long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the continental United States

BACKGROUND

A better understanding of the adverse health effects of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) requires accurate estimates of PM2.5 variation at fine spatial scales. Remote sensing has emerged as an important means of estimating PM2.5 exposures, but relatively few studies have compared remote-sensing estimates to those derived from monitor-based data.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated and compared the predictive capabilities of remote sensing and geostatistical interpolation.

METHODS

We developed a space-time geostatistical kriging model to predict PM2.5 over the continental United States and compared resulting predictions to estimates derived from satellite retrievals.

RESULTS

The kriging estimate was more accurate for locations that were about 100 km from a monitoring station, whereas the remote sensing estimate was more accurate for locations that were > 100 km from a monitoring station. Based on this finding, we developed a hybrid map that combines the kriging and satellite-based PM2.5 estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that for most of the populated areas of the continental United States, geostatistical interpolation produced more accurate estimates than remote sensing. The differences between the estimates resulting from the two methods, however, were relatively small. In areas with extensive monitoring networks, the interpolation may provide more accurate estimates, but in the many areas of the world without such monitoring, remote sensing can provide useful exposure estimates that perform nearly as well.

Global estimates of ambient fine particulate matter concentrations from satellite-based aerosol optical depth: development and application

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic and health impact studies of fine particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) are limited by the lack of monitoring data, especially in developing countries. Satellite observations offer valuable global information about PM2.5 concentrations.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we developed a technique for estimating surface PM2.5 concentrations from satellite observations.

METHODS

We mapped global ground-level PM2.5 concentrations using total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and MISR (Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite instruments and coincident aerosol vertical profiles from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model.

RESULTS

We determined that global estimates of long-term average (1 January 2001 to 31 December 2006) PM2.5 concentrations at approximately 10 km x 10 km resolution indicate a global population-weighted geometric mean PM2.5 concentration of 20 microg/m3. The World Health Organization Air Quality PM2.5 Interim Target-1 (35 microg/m3 annual average) is exceeded over central and eastern Asia for 38% and for 50% of the population, respectively. Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations exceed 80 microg/m3 over eastern China. Our evaluation of the satellite-derived estimate with ground-based in situ measurements indicates significant spatial agreement with North American measurements (r = 0.77; slope = 1.07; n = 1057) and with noncoincident measurements elsewhere (r = 0.83; slope = 0.86; n = 244). The 1 SD of uncertainty in the satellite-derived PM2.5 is 25%, which is inferred from the AOD retrieval and from aerosol vertical profile errors and sampling. The global population-weighted mean uncertainty is 6.7 microg/m3.

CONCLUSIONS

Satellite-derived total-column AOD, when combined with a chemical transport model, provides estimates of global long-term average PM2.5 concentrations.

A GIS-based method for modelling air pollution exposures across Europe

A GIS-based moving window approach was developed as a means for generating high resolution air pollution maps over large geographic areas. The approach is demonstrated by modelling annual mean NO(2) pollution for the EU-15 (excluding Sweden) at the 1 km level on the basis of emissions and meteorological data. Models were developed using monitoring data from 714 background NO(2) sites for 2001 and validated by comparing predicted with observed NO(2) concentrations for a reserved set of 228 background sites. First the emission map (NO(x)) was derived by disaggregating national emissions estimates, categorised by source, to a 1 km grid, using proxies including population and road density, traffic statistics and land cover. A set of annuli was then constructed, of varying radii, and these passed over the emissions grid to derive a calibration between measured annual average concentrations at each monitoring site and distance-weighted emissions in the surrounding area, using a focalsum function. The resulting model was then used to predict concentrations at the reserved set of validation sites, and measures of performance (R(2), RMSE and fractional bias) obtained. Validation gave R(2)=0.61, RMSE=6.59 and FB=-0.01, and indicated performance equivalent to universal kriging and better than ordinary kriging and land use regression.