Ozone pollution aggravated by mountain-valley breeze over the western Sichuan Basin, Southwest China

The impact of thermally driven mountain-valley breezes (MVB) on the atmospheric environment remains poorly understood, especially in ozone (O3)-polluted regions with complex underlying topography. To address this knowledge gap, we focused on the western Sichuan Basin (SCB), situated immediately east of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is considered susceptible to MVB coupled with severe O3 pollution in southwest China. We revealed the MVB driving diurnal O3 variations and meteorological mechanisms using surface observations and ERA5 reanalysis data. Local MVB days accounted for up to 47% of cases in the summers of 2015-2022. Driven by the MVB, the near-surface O3 concentrations increased by 8.8%, with 12.7% and 50.0% deterioration in the O3 light and moderate exceedance rates, respectively, on the western SCB edge. The daytime upslope valley breeze with 20% higher wind speed drove the westward transport of rich O3 and precursors from the upwind-polluted inner SCB towards its western edge, and the O3 photochemical production, followed by intensifying solar radiation and air temperature, gave rise to 14.8% of surface O3 concentrations over the western SCB edge. The nighttime downward mountain breeze with a 20% increase in wind speed could transport the rich O3 in the mountainous area to the basin edge, causing O3 levels to increase by 2.8%. In summary, we quantitatively assessed the impacts of MVB on changes in O3 concentrations and air quality along with its meteorological mechanisms, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of meteorological drivers in the atmospheric environment.

The multi-year contribution of Indo-China peninsula fire emissions to aerosol radiation forcing in southern China during 2013-2019

Fire emissions in Southeast Asia transported to southern China every spring (March-May), influencing not only the air quality but also the weather and climate. However, the multi-year variations and magnitude of this impact on aerosol radiation forcing in southern China remain unclear. Here, we quantified the multi-year contributions of fire emissions in Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region to aerosol radiation forcing in the various southern Chinese provinces during the fire season (March-May) of 2013-2019 combining the 3-dimension chemical transport model and the Column Radiation Model (CRM) simulations. The models' evaluations showed they reasonably capture the temporal and spatial distribution of surface aerosol concentrations and column aerosol optical properties over the study regions. The fire emissions over the ICP region were found to increase the aerosol optical depth (AOD) value by 0.1 (15 %) and reduce the single scattering albedo (SSA) in three southern regions of China (Yunnan-YN, Guangxi-GX, and Guangdong-GD from west to east), owing to increases in the proportions of black carbon (BC, 0.4 % ± 0.1 %) and organic carbon (OC, 3.0 % ± 0.9 %) within the aerosol compositions. The transported smoke aerosols cooled surface but heated the atmosphere in the southern China regions, with the largest mean reduction of -5 Wm-2 (-3 %) in surface shortwave radiation forcing and the maximum daily contributions of about -15 Wm-2 (-15 %) to the atmosphere radiation forcing in the GX region, followed by the GD and YN regions. The impacts of ICP fire emissions on aerosol optical and radiative parameters declined during 2013-2019, with the highest rate of 0.393 ± 0.478 Wm-2 yr-1 in the GX for the shortwave radiation forcing in the atmosphere. Besides, their yearly changes in the contribution were consistent with the annual fire emissions in the ICP region. Such strong radiative perturbations of ICP fire emissions were expected to influence regional meteorology in southern China and should be considered in the climate simulations.

Aerosol-Radiation Interactions in China in Winter: Competing Effects of Reduced Shortwave Radiation and Cloud-Snowfall-Albedo Feedbacks Under Rapidly Changing Emissions

Since 2013, Chinese policies have dramatically reduced emissions of particulates and their gas-phase precursors, but the implications of these reductions for aerosol-radiation interactions are unknown. Using a global, coupled chemistry-climate model, we examine how the radiative impacts of Chinese air pollution in the winter months of 2012 and 2013 affect local meteorology and how these changes may, in turn, influence surface concentrations of PM_2.5, particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm. We then investigate how decreasing emissions through 2016 and 2017 alter this impact. We find that absorbing aerosols aloft in winter 2012 and 2013 heat the middle- and lower troposphere by ∼0.5-1 K, reducing cloud liquid water, snowfall, and snow cover. The subsequent decline in surface albedo appears to counteract the ∼15-20 W m^-2 decrease in shortwave radiation reaching the surface due to attenuation by aerosols overhead. The net result of this novel cloud-snowfall-albedo feedback in winters 2012-2013 is a slight increase in surface temperature of ∼0.5-1 K in some regions and little change elsewhere. The aerosol heating aloft, however, stabilizes the atmosphere and decreases the seasonal mean planetary boundary layer (PBL) height by ∼50 m. In winter 2016 and 2017, the ∼20% decrease in mean PM_2.5 weakens the cloud-snowfall-albedo feedback, though it is still evident in western China, where the feedback again warms the surface by ∼0.5-1 K. Regardless of emissions, we find that aerosol-radiation interactions enhance mean surface PM_2.5 pollution by 10%-20% across much of China during all four winters examined, mainly though suppression of PBL heights.

Large contribution of biomass burning emissions to ozone throughout the global remote troposphere

Ozone is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane but has a larger uncertainty in its radiative forcing, in part because of uncertainty in the source characteristics of ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic carbon that directly affect ozone formation chemistry. Tropospheric ozone also negatively affects human and ecosystem health. Biomass burning (BB) and urban emissions are significant but uncertain sources of ozone precursors. Here, we report global-scale, in situ airborne measurements of ozone and precursor source tracers from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission. Measurements from the remote troposphere showed that tropospheric ozone is regularly enhanced above background in polluted air masses in all regions of the globe. Ozone enhancements in air with high BB and urban emission tracers (2.1 to 23.8 ppbv [parts per billion by volume]) were generally similar to those in BB-influenced air (2.2 to 21.0 ppbv) but larger than those in urban-influenced air (-7.7 to 6.9 ppbv). Ozone attributed to BB was 2 to 10 times higher than that from urban sources in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropical Atlantic and roughly equal to that from urban sources in the Northern Hemisphere and the tropical Pacific. Three independent global chemical transport models systematically underpredict the observed influence of BB on tropospheric ozone. Potential reasons include uncertainties in modeled BB injection heights and emission inventories, export efficiency of BB emissions to the free troposphere, and chemical mechanisms of ozone production in smoke. Accurately accounting for intermittent but large and widespread BB emissions is required to understand the global tropospheric ozone burden.

Aerosol responses to precipitation along North American air trajectories arriving at Bermuda

North American pollution outflow is ubiquitous over the western North Atlantic Ocean, especially in winter, making this location a suitable natural laboratory for investigating the impact of precipitation on aerosol particles along air mass trajectories. We take advantage of observational data collected at Bermuda to seasonally assess the sensitivity of aerosol mass concentrations and volume size distributions to accumulated precipitation along trajectories (APT). The mass concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm normalized by the enhancement of carbon monoxide above background (PM2.5/ΔCO) at Bermuda was used to estimate the degree of aerosol loss during transport to Bermuda. Results for December-February (DJF) show that most trajectories come from North America and have the highest APTs, resulting in a significant reduction (by 53 %) in PM2.5/ΔCO under high-APT conditions (> 13.5 mm) relative to low-APT conditions (< 0.9 mm). Moreover, PM2.5/ΔCO was most sensitive to increases in APT up to 5 mm (-0.044 μg m-3 ppbv-1 mm-1) and less sensitive to increases in APT over 5 mm. While anthropogenic PM2.5 constituents (e.g., black carbon, sulfate, organic carbon) decrease with high APT, sea salt, in contrast, was comparable between high- and low-APT conditions owing to enhanced local wind and sea salt emissions in high-APT conditions. The greater sensitivity of the fine-mode volume concentrations (versus coarse mode) to wet scavenging is evident from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) volume size distribution data. A combination of GEOS-Chem model simulations of the 210Pb submicron aerosol tracer and its gaseous precursor 222Rn reveals that (i) surface aerosol particles at Bermuda are most impacted by wet scavenging in winter and spring (due to large-scale precipitation) with a maximum in March, whereas convective scavenging plays a substantial role in summer; and (ii) North American 222Rn tracer emissions contribute most to surface 210Pb concentrations at Bermuda in winter (~75 %-80 %), indicating that air masses arriving at Bermuda experience large-scale precipitation scavenging while traveling from North America. A case study flight from the ACTIVATE field campaign on 22 February 2020 reveals a significant reduction in aerosol number and volume concentrations during air mass transport off the US East Coast associated with increased cloud fraction and precipitation. These results highlight the sensitivity of remote marine boundary layer aerosol characteristics to precipitation along trajectories, especially when the air mass source is continental outflow from polluted regions like the US East Coast.

HCOOH in the remote atmosphere: Constraints from Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) airborne observations

Formic acid (HCOOH) is an important component of atmospheric acidity but its budget is poorly understood, with prior observations implying substantial missing sources. Here we combine pole-to-pole airborne observations from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) with chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM) and back trajectory analyses to provide the first global in-situ characterization of HCOOH in the remote atmosphere. ATom reveals sub-100 ppt HCOOH concentrations over most of the remote oceans, punctuated by large enhancements associated with continental outflow. Enhancements correlate with known combustion tracers and trajectory-based fire influences. The GEOS-Chem model underpredicts these in-plume HCOOH enhancements, but elsewhere we find no broad indication of a missing HCOOH source in the background free troposphere. We conclude that missing non-fire HCOOH precursors inferred previously are predominantly short-lived. We find indications of a wet scavenging underestimate in the model consistent with a positive HCOOH bias in the tropical upper troposphere. Observations reveal episodic evidence of ocean HCOOH uptake, which is well-captured by GEOS-Chem; however, despite its strong seawater undersaturation HCOOH is not consistently depleted in the remote marine boundary layer. Over fifty fire and mixed plumes were intercepted during ATom with widely varying transit times and source regions. HCOOH:CO normalized excess mixing ratios in these plumes range from 3.4 to >50 ppt/ppb CO and are often over an order of magnitude higher than expected primary emission ratios. HCOOH is thus a major reactive organic carbon reservoir in the aged plumes sampled during ATom, implying important missing pathways for in-plume HCOOH production.

COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere

Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000-2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one-quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry-climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020.

Rapid hydrolysis of tertiary isoprene nitrate efficiently removes NOx from the atmosphere

The formation of a suite of isoprene-derived hydroxy nitrate (IHN) isomers during the OH-initiated oxidation of isoprene affects both the concentration and distribution of nitrogen oxide free radicals (NO_x). Experiments performed in an atmospheric simulation chamber suggest that the lifetime of the most abundant isomer, 1,2-IHN, is shortened significantly by a water-mediated process (leading to nitric acid formation), while the lifetime of a similar isomer, 4,3-IHN, is not. Consistent with these chamber studies, NMR kinetic experiments constrain the 1,2-IHN hydrolysis lifetime to less than 10 s in deuterium oxide (D₂O) at 298 K, whereas the 4,3-IHN isomer has been observed to hydrolyze much less efficiently. These laboratory findings are used to interpret observations of the IHN isomer distribution in ambient air. The IHN isomer ratio (1,2-IHN to 4,3-IHN) in a high NO_x environment decreases rapidly in the afternoon, which is not explained using known gas-phase chemistry. When simulated with an observationally constrained model, we find that an additional loss process for the 1,2-IHN isomer with a time constant of about 6 h best explains our atmospheric measurements. Using estimates for 1,2-IHN Henry's law constant and atmospheric liquid water volume, we show that condensed-phase hydrolysis of 1,2-IHN can account for this loss process. Simulations from a global chemistry transport model show that the hydrolysis of 1,2-IHN accounts for a substantial fraction of NO_x lost (and HNO₃ produced), resulting in large impacts on oxidant formation, especially over forested regions.

On the sources and sinks of atmospheric VOCs: an integrated analysis of recent aircraft campaigns over North America

We apply a high-resolution chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM) with updated treatment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and a comprehensive suite of airborne datasets over North America to (i) characterize the VOC budget and (ii) test the ability of current models to capture the distribution and reactivity of atmospheric VOCs over this region. Biogenic emissions dominate the North American VOC budget in the model, accounting for 70 % and 95 % of annually emitted VOC carbon and reactivity, respectively. Based on current inventories anthropogenic emissions have declined to the point where biogenic emissions are the dominant summertime source of VOC reactivity even in most major North American cities. Methane oxidation is a 2x larger source of nonmethane VOCs (via production of formaldehyde and methyl hydroperoxide) over North America in the model than are anthropogenic emissions. However, anthropogenic VOCs account for over half of the ambient VOC loading over the majority of the region owing to their longer aggregate lifetime. Fires can be a significant VOC source episodically but are small on average. In the planetary boundary layer (PBL), the model exhibits skill in capturing observed variability in total VOC abundance (R 2 = 0:36) and reactivity (R 2 = 0:54). The same is not true in the free troposphere (FT), where skill is low and there is a persistent low model bias (~ 60 %), with most (27 of 34) model VOCs underestimated by more than a factor of 2. A comparison of PBL: FT concentration ratios over the southeastern US points to a misrepresentation of PBL ventilation as a contributor to these model FT biases. We also find that a relatively small number of VOCs (acetone, methanol, ethane, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, isoprene C oxidation products, methyl hydroperoxide) drive a large fraction of total ambient VOC reactivity and associated model biases; research to improve understanding of their budgets is thus warranted. A source tracer analysis suggests a current overestimate of biogenic sources for hydroxyacetone, methyl ethyl ketone and glyoxal, an underestimate of biogenic formic acid sources, and an underestimate of peroxyacetic acid production across biogenic and anthropogenic precursors. Future work to improve model representations of vertical transport and to address the VOC biases discussed are needed to advance predictions of ozone and SOA formation.

Global tropospheric effects of aromatic chemistry with the SAPRC-11 mechanism implemented in GEOS-Chem version 9-02

The Goddard Earth Observing System with chemistry (GEOS-Chem) model has been updated with the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center version 11 (SAPRC-11) aromatics chemical mechanism, with the purpose of evaluating global and regional effects of the most abundant aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylenes) on the chemical species important for tropospheric oxidation capacity. The model evaluation based on surface and aircraft observations indicates good agreement for aromatics and ozone. A comparison between scenarios in GEOS-Chem with simplified aromatic chemistry (as in the standard setup, with no ozone formation from related peroxy radicals or recycling of NOx) and with the SAPRC-11 scheme reveals relatively slight changes in ozone, the hydroxyl radical, and nitrogen oxides on a global mean basis (1 %-4 %), although remarkable regional differences (5 %-20 %) exist near the source regions. NO x decreases over the source regions and increases in the remote troposphere, due mainly to more efficient transport of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), which is increased with the SAPRC aromatic chemistry. Model ozone mixing ratios with the updated aromatic chemistry increase by up to 5 ppb (more than 10 %), especially in industrially polluted regions. The ozone change is partly due to the direct influence of aromatic oxidation products on ozone production rates, and in part to the altered spatial distribution of NOx that enhances the tropospheric ozone production efficiency. Improved representation of aromatics is important to simulate the tropospheric oxidation.

Bidirectional Ecosystem-Atmosphere Fluxes of Volatile Organic Compounds Across the Mass Spectrum: How Many Matter?

Terrestrial ecosystems are simultaneously the largest source and a major sink of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the global atmosphere, and these two-way fluxes are an important source of uncertainty in current models. Here, we apply high-resolution mass spectrometry (proton transfer reaction-quadrupole interface time-of-flight; PTR-QiTOF) to measure ecosystem-atmosphere VOC fluxes across the entire detected mass range (m/z 0-335) over a mixed temperate forest and use the results to test how well a state-of-science chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM) is able to represent the observed reactive carbon exchange. We show that ambient humidity fluctuations can give rise to spurious VOC fluxes with PTR-based techniques and present a method to screen for such effects. After doing so, 377 of the 636 detected ions exhibited detectable gross fluxes during the study, implying a large number of species with active ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. We introduce the reactivity flux as a measure of how Earth-atmosphere fluxes influence ambient OH reactivity and show that the upward total VOC (∑VOC) carbon and reactivity fluxes are carried by a far smaller number of species than the downward fluxes. The model underpredicts the ∑VOC carbon and reactivity fluxes by 40-60% on average. However, the observed net fluxes are dominated (90% on a carbon basis, 95% on a reactivity basis) by known VOCs explicitly included in the CTM. As a result, the largest CTM uncertainties in simulating VOC carbon and reactivity exchange for this environment are associated with known rather than unrepresented species. This conclusion pertains to the set of species detectable by PTR-TOF techniques, which likely represents the majority in terms of carbon mass and OH reactivity, but not necessarily in terms of aerosol formation potential. In the case of oxygenated VOCs, the model severely underpredicts the gross fluxes and the net exchange. Here, unrepresented VOCs play a larger role, accounting for ~30% of the carbon flux and ~50% of the reactivity flux. The resulting CTM biases, however, are still smaller than those that arise from uncertainties for known and represented compounds.

Gas-Phase Reactions of Isoprene and Its Major Oxidation Products

Isoprene carries approximately half of the flux of non-methane volatile organic carbon emitted to the atmosphere by the biosphere. Accurate representation of its oxidation rate and products is essential for quantifying its influence on the abundance of the hydroxyl radical (OH), nitrogen oxide free radicals (NO _x), ozone (O₃), and, via the formation of highly oxygenated compounds, aerosol. We present a review of recent laboratory and theoretical studies of the oxidation pathways of isoprene initiated by addition of OH, O₃, the nitrate radical (NO₃), and the chlorine atom. From this review, a recommendation for a nearly complete gas-phase oxidation mechanism of isoprene and its major products is developed. The mechanism is compiled with the aims of providing an accurate representation of the flow of carbon while allowing quantification of the impact of isoprene emissions on HO _x and NO _x free radical concentrations and of the yields of products known to be involved in condensed-phase processes. Finally, a simplified (reduced) mechanism is developed for use in chemical transport models that retains the essential chemistry required to accurately simulate isoprene oxidation under conditions where it occurs in the atmosphere-above forested regions remote from large NO _x emissions.

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has advantages of simplicity and expediency, but incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn-210Pb-7Be chemical tracer simulations offline in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25° ×0.3125° (≈25 km) and 2° ×2.5° (≈200 km) resolutions, and on-line in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈25 km) and c48 (≈200 km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 hours and remapped to 0.25° ×0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25° ×0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20% relative to the GEOS-5 c360 on-line simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3-hour meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from cubed-sphere to rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25°×0.3125° to 2°×2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially as well as temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40% in surface air relative to the on-line c360 simulations, and underestimated by up to 40% in the upper troposphere, while the tropospheric lifetimes of 210Pb and 7Be against aerosol deposition are affected by 5-10%. The lost vertical transport in the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem simulation can be partly restored by re-computing the convective mass fluxes at the appropriate resolution to replace the archived convective mass fluxes, and by correcting for bias 20 in spatial averaging of boundary layer mixing depths.

Multi-year composite view of ozone enhancements and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in dry intrusions of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones

We examine the role of extratropical cyclones in stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange with cyclone-centric composites of O3 retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), contrasting them to composites obtained with the Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2) reanalyses and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We identify 15,978 extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere (NH) for 2005-2012. The lowermost stratosphere (261 hPa) and middle troposphere (424 hPa) composites feature a 1,000 km-wide O3 enhancement in the dry intrusion (DI) airstream to the southwest of the cyclone center, coinciding with a lowered tropopause, enhanced potential vorticity, and decreased H2O. MLS composites at 261 hPa show that the DI O3 enhancements reach a 210 ppbv maximum in April. At 424 hPa, TES composites display maximum O3 enhancements of 27 ppbv in May. The magnitude and seasonality of these enhancements are captured by MERRA and MERRA-2, but GEOS-Chem is a factor of two too low. The MERRA-2 composites show that the O3-rich DI forms a vertically aligned structure between 300 and 800 hPa, wrapping cyclonically with the warm conveyor belt. In winter and spring DIs, O3 is enhanced by 100 ppbv or 100-130% at 300 hPa, with significant enhancements below 500 hPa (6-20 ppbv or 15-30%). We estimate that extratropical cyclones result in a STT flux of 119±56 Tg O3 yr-1, accounting for 42±20 % of the NH extratropical O3 STT flux. The STT flux in cyclones displays a strong dependence on westerly 300 hPa wind speeds.

Quantitative Assessment of Parametric Uncertainty in Northern Hemisphere PAH Concentrations

We quantitatively examine the relative importance of uncertainty in emissions and physicochemical properties (including reaction rate constants) to Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Arctic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations, using a computationally efficient numerical uncertainty technique applied to the global-scale chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Using polynomial chaos (PC) methods, we propagate uncertainties in physicochemical properties and emissions for the PAHs benzo[a]pyrene, pyrene and phenanthrene to simulated spatially resolved concentration uncertainties. We find that the leading contributors to parametric uncertainty in simulated concentrations are the black carbon-air partition coefficient and oxidation rate constant for benzo[a]pyrene, and the oxidation rate constants for phenanthrene and pyrene. NH geometric average concentrations are more sensitive to uncertainty in the atmospheric lifetime than to emissions rate. We use the PC expansions and measurement data to constrain parameter uncertainty distributions to observations. This narrows a priori parameter uncertainty distributions for phenanthrene and pyrene, and leads to higher values for OH oxidation rate constants and lower values for European PHE emission rates.

Global air quality and climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on the simulated response of ozone and fine particulate matter to anthropogenic emission reductions

The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1-0.25 microg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1-2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 microg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO₂ emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO₂ emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO _x ). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m^-2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m^-2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2-14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3-4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO₂ on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO₂ effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO _x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO _x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a 'hydrogen economy' develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO₂ impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.

Kudzu (Pueraria montana) invasion doubles emissions of nitric oxide and increases ozone pollution

The nitrogen-fixing legume kudzu (Pueraria montana) is a widespread invasive plant in the southeastern United States with physiological traits that may lead to important impacts on ecosystems and the atmosphere. Its spread has the potential to raise ozone levels in the region by increasing nitric oxide (NO) emissions from soils as a consequence of increasing nitrogen (N) inputs and cycling in soils. We studied the effects of kudzu invasions on soils and trace N gas emissions at three sites in Madison County, Georgia in 2007 and used the results to model the effects of kudzu invasion on regional air quality. We found that rates of net N mineralization increased by up to 1,000%, and net nitrification increased by up to 500% in invaded soils in Georgia. Nitric oxide emissions from invaded soils were more than 100% higher (2.81 vs. 1.24 ng NO-N cm(-2) h(-1)). We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to evaluate the potential impact of kudzu invasion on regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality. In an extreme scenario, extensive kudzu invasion leads directly to an increase in the number of high ozone events (above 70 ppb) of up to 7 days each summer in some areas, up from 10 to 20 days in a control scenario with no kudzu invasion. These results establish a quantitative link between a biological invasion and ozone formation and suggest that in this extreme scenario, kudzu invasion can overcome some of the air quality benefits of legislative control.

Quantifying the spatial and temporal variation of ground-level ozone in the rural Annapolis Valley, Nova Scotia, Canada using nitrite-impregnated passive samplers

The spatiotemporal variability of ground-level ozone (GLO) in the rural Annapolis Valley, Nova Scotia was investigated between August 29, 2006, and September 28, 2007, using Ogawa nitrite-impregnated passive diffusion samplers (PS). A total of 353 PS measurements were made at 17 ambient and 1 indoor locations over 18 sampling periods ranging from 2 to 4 weeks. The calculated PS detection limit was 0.8 +/- 0.02 parts per billion by volume (ppbv), for a 14-day sampling period. Duplicate samplers were routinely deployed at three sites and these showed excellent agreement (R2 values of 0.88 [n = 11], 0.95 [n = 17], and 0.96 [n = 17]), giving an overall PS imprecision value of 5.4%. Comparisons between PS and automated continuous ozone analyzers at three sites also demonstrated excellent agreement with R2 values of 0.82, 0.95, and 0.95, and gradients not significantly different from unity. The minimum, maximum, and mean (+/- 1 sigma) ambient annual GLO concentrations observed were 7.7, 72.1, and 34.3 +/- 10.1 ppbv, respectively. The three highest sampling sites had significantly greater (P = 0.032) GLO concentrations than three Valley floor sites, and there was a strong correlation between concentration and elevation (R2 = 0.82). Multivariate models were used to parameterize the observed GLO concentrations in terms of prevailing meteorology at an elevated site found at Kejimkujik National Park and also at a site on the Valley floor. Validation of the multivariate models using 30 months of historical meteorological data at these sites yielded R2 values of 0.70 (elevated site) and 0.61 (Valley floor). The mean indoor ozone concentration was 5.4 +/- 3.3 ppbv and related to ambient GLO concentration by the equation: indoor = 0.34 x ambient - 5.07. This study has demonstrated the suitability of PS for long-term studies of GLO over a wide geographic area and the effect of topographical and meteorological influences on GLO in this region.

Surface ozone concentrations and ecosystem health: past trends and a guide to future projections

This paper reviews current understanding of the sources and sinks of ozone in the troposphere, recent studies of long-term trends, and the factors which have to be taken into consideration when constructing and interpreting future models of ozone concentration. The factors controlling surface O(3) concentrations are discussed initially to provide a basis for the ensuing discussion, followed by a summary of the evidence for recent trends in ground-level ozone concentrations, i.e. over the past 3 decades, which have shown a significant increase in the annual average in 'background' air typical of the unpolluted northern hemisphere. Closer to precursor sources, although urban winter concentrations have increased, rural peak spring and summer concentrations during ozone 'episodes' have decreased markedly in response to emissions reductions. In order to determine whether such trends are meaningful, the statistical techniques for determining temporal trends are reviewed. The possible causes of long-term trends in ozone are then discussed, with particular reference to the use of chemistry-transport models to interpret past trends. Such models are also used to make predictions of future trends in surface ozone concentrations, but few are comprehensive in integrating future climate changes with changes in land use and in emissions of ozone precursors. Guidance is given on the likely effects of climate/precursor/chemistry interactions so that model predictions can be judged.