Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Frequent Amazonian fires over the last decade have raised the alarm about the fate of the Earth's most biodiverse forest. The increased fire frequency has been attributed to altered hydrological cycles. However, observations over the past few decades have demonstrated hydrological changes that may have opposing impacts on fire, including higher basin-wide precipitation and increased drought frequency and severity. Here, we use multiple satellite observations and climate reanalysis datasets to demonstrate compelling evidence of increased fire susceptibility in response to climate regime shifts across Amazonia. We show that accumulated forest loss since 2000 warmed and dried the lower atmosphere, which reduced moisture recycling and resulted in increased drought extent and severity, and subsequent fire. Extremely dry and wet events accompanied with hot days have been more frequent in Amazonia due to climate shift and forest loss. Simultaneously, intensified water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic increased high-altitude atmospheric humidity and heavy rainfall events, but those events did not alleviate severe and long-lasting droughts. Amazonia fire risk is most significant in the southeastern region where tropical savannas undergo long seasonally dry periods. We also find that fires have been expanding through the wet-dry transition season and northward to savanna-forest transition and tropical seasonal forest regions in response to increased forest loss at the "Arc of Deforestation." Tropical forests, which have adapted to historically moist conditions, are less resilient and easily tip into an alternative state. Our results imply forest conservation and fire protection options to reduce the stress from positive feedback between forest loss, climate change, and fire.

Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action

Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No action/later action would result in major social impacts that may influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) $957 billion (×10⁹) and $3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian Amazon Product of USD $150 billion per year), arising primarily from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives-e.g., curbing deforestation-are attainable (USD $64 billion), their efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures is also attainable (USD $122 billion) and could bring benefits even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options.

Scaling leaf respiration with nitrogen and phosphorus in tropical forests across two continents

Leaf dark respiration (Rdark ) represents an important component controlling the carbon balance in tropical forests. Here, we test how nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) affect Rdark and its relationship with photosynthesis using three widely separated tropical forests which differ in soil fertility. Rdark was measured on 431 rainforest canopy trees, from 182 species, in French Guiana, Peru and Australia. The variation in Rdark was examined in relation to leaf N and P content, leaf structure and maximum photosynthetic rates at ambient and saturating atmospheric CO2 concentration. We found that the site with the lowest fertility (French Guiana) exhibited greater rates of Rdark per unit leaf N, P and photosynthesis. The data from Australia, for which there were no phylogenetic overlaps with the samples from the South American sites, yielded the most distinct relationships of Rdark with the measured leaf traits. Our data indicate that no single universal scaling relationship accounts for variation in Rdark across this large biogeographical space. Variability between sites in the absolute rates of Rdark and the Rdark  : photosynthesis ratio were driven by variations in N- and P-use efficiency, which were related to both taxonomic and environmental variability.

Many shades of green: the dynamic tropical forest-savannah transition zones

The forest-savannah transition is the most widespread ecotone in tropical areas, separating two of the most productive terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we review current understanding of the factors that shape this transition, and how it may change under various drivers of local or global change. At broadest scales, the location of the transition is shaped by water availability, mediated strongly at local scales by fire regimes, herbivory pressure and spatial variation in soil properties. The frequently dynamic nature of this transition suggests that forest and savannah can exist as alternative stable states, maintained and separated by fire-grass feedbacks and tree shade-fire suppression feedback. However, this theory is still contested and the relative contributions of the main biotic and abiotic drivers and their interactions are yet not fully understood. These drivers interplay with a wide range of ecological processes and attributes at the global, continental, regional and local scales. The evolutionary history of the biotic and abiotic drivers and processes plays an important role in the current distributions of these transitions as well as in their species composition and ecosystem functioning. This ecotone can be sensitive to shifts in climate and other driving factors, but is also potentially stabilized by negative feedback processes. There is abundant evidence that these transitions are shifting under contemporary global and local changes, but the direction of shift varies according to region. However, it still remains uncertain how these transitions will respond to rapid and multi-faceted ongoing current changes, and how increasing human influence will interact with these shifts.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.