Global Spatiotemporal Variability of Integrated Water Vapor Derived from GPS, GOME/SCIAMACHY and ERA-Interim: Annual Cycle, Frequency Distribution and Linear Trends

Atmospheric water vapor plays a prominent role in climate change and atmospheric, meteorological, and hydrological processes. Because of its high spatiotemporal variability, precise quantification of water vapor is challenging. This study investigates Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) variability for the period 1995–2010 at 118 globally distributed Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, using additional UV/VIS satellite retrievals by GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2 (denoted as GOMESCIA below), plus ERA-Interim reanalysis output. Apart from spatial representativeness differences, particularly at coastal and island sites, all three IWV datasets correlate well with the lowest mean correlation coefficient of 0.878 (averaged over all the sites) between GPS and GOMESCIA. We confirm the dominance of standard lognormal distribution of the IWV time series, which can be explained by the combination of a lower mode (dry season characterized by a standard lognormal distribution with a low median value) and an upper mode (wet season characterized by a reverse lognormal distribution with high median value) in European, Western American, and subtropical sites. Despite the relatively short length of the time series, we found a good consistency in the sign of the continental IWV trends, not only between the different datasets, but also compared to temperature and precipitation trends.

Water Vapor from Western Eurasia Promotes Precipitation during the Snow Season in Northern Xinjiang, a Typical Arid Region in Central Asia

Atmospheric water vapor plays an important role in the water cycle, especially in arid Central Asia, where precipitation is invaluable to water resources. Understanding and quantifying the relationship between water vapor source regions and precipitation is a key problem in water resource research in typical arid Central Asia, Northern Xinjiang. However, the relationship between precipitation and water vapor sources is still unclear of snow season. This paper aimed at studying the role of water vapor source supply in the Northern Xinjiang precipitation trend, which was investigated using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. The results showed that the total water vapor contributed from Western Eurasia and the North Polar area presented upward trends similar to the precipitation change trend, which indicated that the water vapor contribution from the two previous water vapor source regions supplied abundant water vapor and maintained the upward precipitation trend from 1980 to 2017 in Northern Xinjiang. From the climatology of water vapor transport, the region was controlled by midlatitude westerlies and major water vapor input from the western boundary, and the net water vapor flux of this region also showed an annual increasing trend. Western Eurasia had the largest moisture percentage contribution to Northern Xinjiang (48.11%) over the past 38 years. Northern Xinjiang precipitation was correlated with water vapor from Western Eurasia, the North Polar area, and Siberia, and the correlation coefficients were 0.66, 0.45, and 0.57, respectively. These results could aid in better understanding the water cycle process and climate change in this typical arid region of Central Asia.

Review of climate change impacts on predicted river streamflow in tropical rivers

Tropical regions are characterized by hydrological extreme events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, quantifying the extent to which climate change may damage a hydrological system becomes crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the findings from previous research on projected impacts of climate change on hydrological systems located in regions bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It intends to provide an in-depth understanding of the climatic conditions, applied approaches, climate change impacts on future streamflow, and measures to reduce prediction uncertainty in the tropics. The review revealed that there is a significant variation in the magnitude of climate change impacts on streamflow in the tropics. The reason for the inconsistent trend prediction is that projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model structural differences, and uncertainty of downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, to minimize the uncertainty and maximize confidence in streamflow projections, it is essential to apply multi-member model ensembles and to clarify the adaptation strategy (coping, adjusting, or transforming).

A Framework for Global Multicategory and Multiscalar Drought Characterization Accounting for Snow Processes

Drought indices do not always provide the most relevant information for water resources management as most of them neglect the role of snow in the land surface water balance. In this study, a physically based drought index, the Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index (SZI), was modified and improved by incorporating the effects of snow dynamics for drought characterization at multiple time scales. The new version of the SZI, called SZIsnow, includes snow in both the water supply and demand in drought characterization by using the water-energy budgets from the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems product. We compared and evaluated the performance of SZIsnow and SZI in drought identification globally across various time scales using observed multicategory drought evidences from several sources. Results show that the SZIsnow agrees better with the observed changes in hydrological and agricultural droughts than the SZI, particularly over basins with high snow accumulation. Furthermore, the SZIsnow is more consistent with the residual water-energy ratio than the SZI over snow-influenced regions. Overall, the SZIsnow can be either a complement or an improvement over the SZI for identifying, monitoring, and characterizing hydrological and agricultural droughts at various scales (e.g., 1-48 months) over high-latitude and high-elevation regions that receive snow.

Variations of compound precipitation and temperature extremes in China during 1961-2014

Concurrent precipitation and temperature extremes usually have significant impacts on the society, economy and ecosystem. Changes in precipitation or temperature extremes in China have been extensively studied; however, less attention has been paid to their concurrence (or compound extremes) to date. This study explores the historical variations of compound extremes including dry/warm, dry/cold, wet/warm, and wet/cold combinations based on monthly precipitation and temperature observations during summer and winter from 1961 to 2014 over China. Results show that there is a significant increase in the frequency of compound dry/warm and wet/warm extremes while a decrease in compound dry/cold and wet/cold extremes for the period 1988-2014 relative to 1961-1987. In addition, statistically significant increase in the spatial extent exists in compound dry/warm and wet/warm extremes, while the areas affected by the compound dry/cold and wet/cold extremes present a decrease across China, which is shown to be partly related to the large-scale circulation patterns. The results of this study could improve our understanding of changes of compound precipitation and temperature extremes from a multivariate perspective.

Response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Climate Change: Location, Width, and Strength

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a planetary-scale band of heavy precipitation close to the equator. Here, we consider the response of the ITCZ structure to climate change using observations, simulations, and theory. We focus on the substantial yet underappreciated projected changes in ITCZ width and strength, and highlight an emerging conceptual framework for understanding these changes.

RECENT FINDINGS

Satellite observations and reanalysis data show a narrowing and strengthening of precipitation in the ITCZ over recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but little change in ITCZ location. Consistent with observations, coupled climate models predict no robust change in the zonal-mean ITCZ location over the twenty-first century. However, the majority of models project a narrowing of the ITCZ and weakening mean ascent. Interestingly, changes in ITCZ width and strength are strongly anti-correlated across models.

SUMMARY

The ITCZ has narrowed over recent decades yet its location has remained approximately constant. Climate models project further narrowing and a weakening of the average ascent within the ITCZ as the climate continues to warm. Following intense work over the last ten years, the physical mechanisms controlling the ITCZ location are now well understood. The development of complementary theories for ITCZ width and strength is a current research priority. Outstanding challenges include understanding the ITCZ response to past climate changes and over land versus ocean regions, and better constraining all aspects of the ITCZ structure in model projections.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Low precipitation aggravates the impact of extreme high temperatures on lizard reproduction

Extreme high temperatures are occurring more frequently with ongoing anthropogenic climate warming, but the experimental tests of the effects of high temperatures on terrestrial vertebrates in natural conditions are rare. In this study, we investigated the effects of extreme high temperatures on female reproduction and offspring traits of multi-ocellated racerunners (Eremias multiocellata) kept in field enclosures in the desert steppe of Inner Mongolia. Our studies indicate that high temperatures significantly affect the gestation period and reproductive output of females and the offspring sex ratio, but have little impact on offspring body size and mass. More interestingly, we found that the effect of extreme high temperatures on female reproductive output was not consistent between two consecutive years that differed in precipitation. Low precipitation may aggravate the impact of climate warming on lizards and negatively affect the survival of lizards in the desert steppe. Our results provide evidence that temperature interacts with precipitation to determine the life history of lizards, and they suggest that a drier and hotter environment, such as the future climate in arid mid-latitude areas, will likely impose severe pressure on lizard populations, which are an important component of the food web in desert areas around the world.

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations

Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near global (50°S-50°N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 Version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998-2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value (e.g., 25 and 50 mm day-1). All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, both over tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation ≥25 mm day-1, defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.

Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012

This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 – 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. – May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. – Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons.

The interdependence between rainfall and temperature: copula analyses

Rainfall and temperature are important climatic inputs for agricultural production, especially in the context of climate change. However, accurate analysis and simulation of the joint distribution of rainfall and temperature are difficult due to possible interdependence between them. As one possible approach to this problem, five families of copula models are employed to model the interdependence between rainfall and temperature. Scania is a leading agricultural province in Sweden and is affected by a maritime climate. Historical climatic data for Scania is used to demonstrate the modeling process. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of sample data are also considered to eliminate the possibility of observation error. The results indicate that for Scania there are negative correlations between rainfall and temperature for the months from April to July and September. The student copula is found to be most suitable to model the bivariate distribution of rainfall and temperature based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using the student copula, we simulate temperature and rainfall simultaneously. The resulting models can be integrated with research on agricultural production and planning to study the effects of changing climate on crop yields.

Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height"

Young et al. (Reports, 22 April 2011, p. 451) reported trends in global mean wind speed much larger than found by other investigators. Their report fails to reference these other investigations and does not discuss the consequences that such large wind trends would have on global evaporation and precipitation. The difference between their altimeter and buoy trends suggests a relatively large trend error.