Old carbon reservoirs were not important in the deglacial methane budget

Permafrost and methane hydrates are large, climate-sensitive old carbon reservoirs that have the potential to emit large quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, as the Earth continues to warm. We present ice core isotopic measurements of methane (Δ¹⁴C, δ¹³C, and δD) from the last deglaciation, which is a partial analog for modern warming. Our results show that methane emissions from old carbon reservoirs in response to deglacial warming were small (<19 teragrams of methane per year, 95% confidence interval) and argue against similar methane emissions in response to future warming. Our results also indicate that methane emissions from biomass burning in the pre-Industrial Holocene were 22 to 56 teragrams of methane per year (95% confidence interval), which is comparable to today.

Current understanding of the global cycling of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide

To address the climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, it is essential to understand and quantitatively elucidate their cycling on the Earth's surface. This paper first presents an overview of the global cycling of three greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), followed by a description of their variations in the atmosphere. This paper then presents the recent global budgets of these greenhouse gases estimated using two different approaches, top-down and bottom-up. Discussions on our current knowledge regarding the global cycling of the three gases are also presented.

Bayesian Analysis of the Glacial-Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modeling

The observed rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) from 375 ppbv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) to 680 ppbv during the late preindustrial era is not well understood. Atmospheric chemistry considerations implicate an increase in CH4 sources, but process-based estimates fail to reproduce the required amplitude. CH4 stable isotopes provide complementary information that can help constrain the underlying causes of the increase. We combine Earth System model simulations of the late preindustrial and LGM CH4 cycles, including process-based estimates of the isotopic discrimination of vegetation, in a box model of atmospheric CH4 and its isotopes. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how model-based constraints and ice core observations may be combined in a consistent probabilistic framework. The resultant posterior distributions point to a strong reduction in wetland and other biogenic CH4 emissions during the LGM, with a modest increase in the geological source, or potentially natural or anthropogenic fires, accounting for the observed enrichment of δ13CH4.

Understanding the glacial methane cycle

Atmospheric methane (CH₄) varied with climate during the Quaternary, rising from a concentration of 375 p.p.b.v. during the last glacial maximum (LGM) 21,000 years ago, to 680 p.p.b.v. at the beginning of the industrial revolution. However, the causes of this increase remain unclear; proposed hypotheses rely on fluctuations in either the magnitude of CH₄ sources or CH₄ atmospheric lifetime, or both. Here we use an Earth System model to provide a comprehensive assessment of these competing hypotheses, including estimates of uncertainty. We show that in this model, the global LGM CH₄ source was reduced by 28–46%, and the lifetime increased by 2–8%, with a best-estimate LGM CH₄ concentration of 463–480 p.p.b.v. Simulating the observed LGM concentration requires a 46–49% reduction in sources, indicating that we cannot reconcile the observed amplitude. This highlights the need for better understanding of the effects of low CO₂ and cooler climate on wetlands and other natural CH₄ sources.

The cause of the increase in atmospheric methane from 375 p.p.b.v. during the last ice age to 680 p.p.b.v. at the onset of Industrialization remains uncertain. Here, using an Earth system model, the authors show that we cannot reconcile this rise based on our current understanding of natural methane sources.

Contrasting wetland CH4 emission responses to simulated glacial atmospheric CO2 in temperate bogs and fens

Wetlands were the largest source of atmospheric methane (CH(4) ) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but the sensitivity of this source to exceptionally low atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2) ]) at the time has not been examined experimentally. We tested the hypothesis that LGM atmospheric [CO(2) ] reduced CH(4) emissions as a consequence of decreased photosynthate allocation to the rhizosphere. We exposed minerotrophic fen and ombrotrophic bog peatland mesocosms to simulated LGM (c. 200 ppm) or ambient (c. 400 ppm) [CO(2) ] over 21 months (n = 8 per treatment) and measured gaseous CH(4) flux, pore water dissolved CH(4) and volatile fatty acid (VFA; an indicator of plant carbon supply to the rhizosphere) concentrations. Cumulative CH(4) flux from fen mesocosms was suppressed by 29% (P < 0.05) and rhizosphere pore water [CH(4) ] by c. 50% (P < 0.01) in the LGM [CO(2) ], variables that remained unaffected in bog mesocosms. VFA analysis indicated that changes in plant root exudates were not the driving mechanism behind these results. Our data suggest that the LGM [CO(2) ] suppression of wetland CH(4) emissions is contingent on trophic status. The heterogeneous response may be attributable to differences in species assemblage that influence the dominant CH(4) production pathway, rhizosphere supplemented photosynthesis and CH(4) oxidation.