Evaluation of MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis for black carbon aerosol in China

Black carbon (BC) constitutes a pivotal component of atmospheric aerosols, significantly impacting regional and global radiation balance, climate, and human health. In this study, we evaluated BC data in two prominent atmospheric composition reanalysis datasets: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), and analyzed the causes of their deviations. This assessment is based on observational data collected from 34 monitoring stations across China from 2006 to 2022. Our research reveals a significant and consistent decline in BC concentrations within China, amounting to a reduction exceeding 67.33%. However, both MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis data fail to capture this declining trend. The average annual decrease of BC in MERRA-2 from 2006 to 2022 is only 0.06 μg/m3 per year, while the BC concentration in CAMS even increased with an average annual value of 0.014 μg/m3 per year. In 2022, MERRA-2 had overestimated BC concentration by 20% compared to observational data, while CAMS had overestimated it by approximately 66%. In the regional BC concentration analysis, the data quality of the reanalysis data is better in the South China (RM = 0.59, RC = 0.53), followed by the North China (RM = 0.50, RC = 0.42). Reanalysis BC data in Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau are difficult to use for practical analysis due to their big difference with observation. In a comparison of the anthropogenic BC emissions inventory used in the two atmospheric composition reanalysis datasets with the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory model for Climate and air pollution research (MEIC) emissions inventory, we found that: Despite the significant decline in China's BC emissions, MERRA-2 still relies on the 2006 emissions inventory, while CAMS utilizes emission inventories that even show an increasing trend. These factors will undoubtedly lead to greater deviations between reanalysis and observational data.

Deriving a high-quality daily dataset of large-pan evaporation over China using a hybrid model

Global warming is expected to increase the atmospheric evaporative demand and make more surface water for evapotranspiration, aggerating water sources' social and ecological shortage. Pan evaporation, as a routine observation worldwide, is an excellent metric to indicate the response of terrestrial evaporation to global warming. However, several non-climatic effects, such as instrument upgrades, have destroyed the homogenization of pan evaporation and limited its applications. In China, 2400s meteorological stations have observed daily pan evaporation since 1951. The observed records became discontinuous and inconsistent due to the instrument upgrade from micro-pan D20 to large-pan E601. Here, combining the Penpan model (PM) and random forest model (RFM), we developed a hybrid model to assimilate different types of pan evaporation into a consistent dataset. Based on the cross-validation test, on a daily scale, the hybrid model has a lower bias (RMSE=0.41 mm day^-1) and better stability (NSE=0.94) than the two sub-models and the conversion coefficient method. Finally, we produced a homogenized daily dataset of E601 across China from 1961 to 2018. Based on this dataset, we analyzed the long-term trend of pan evaporation. Pan evaporation showed a -1.23±0.57 mm a^-2 downward trend from 1961-1993, primarily caused by decreased pan evaporation in warm seasons over North China. After 1993, the pan evaporation in South China increased significantly, resulting in a 1.83±0.87 mm a^-2 upward trend across China. With better homogeneity and higher temporal resolution, the new dataset is expected to promote drought monitoring, hydrological modeling, and water resources management. Free access to the dataset can be found at https://figshare.com/s/0cdbd6b1dbf1e22d757e.

Development and Evaluation of AMSU-A Cloud Detection over the Tibetan Plateau

Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) data have been widely assimilated in operational forecasting systems. However, effective distinction between cloudy and clear-sky data is still an essential prerequisite for the assimilation of microwave observations. Cloud detection over the Tibetan Plateau has long been a challenge owing to the influence of low temperatures, terrain height, surface vegetation, and inaccurate background fields. Based on the variations in the response characteristics of different channels of AMSU-A to clouds, five AMSU-A window and low-peaking channels (channels 1–4 and 15) are chosen to establish a cloud detection index. Combined with the existing MHS cloud detection index, a cloud detection scheme over the Tibetan Plateau is proposed. Referring to VISSR-II (Stretched Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer-II) and CALIPSO (The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) cloud classification products, the detection rate of cloudy data and the rejection rate of clear-sky data under different cloud index thresholds are evaluated. Results show that the new cloud detection scheme can identify more than 80% of cloudy data on average, but this decreases to 72% for area with terrain higher than 5 km, and the false deletion rate remains stable at 45%. The detection rates of mixed clouds and cumulonimbus are higher than 90%, but it is lower than 50% for altostratus with an altitude of about 7–8 km. Comparative analysis shows that the new method is more suitable for areas with terrain higher than 700 m. Based on the cloud detection results, the effects of terrain height on the characteristics of observation error and bias are also discussed for AMSU-A channels 5 and 6.

Validation of Four Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture Products Using Ground-Based In Situ Observations over Northern China

Accurately obtaining the spatial distribution of soil moisture and its variability are the basis for the land-atmosphere interaction study. We investigated the fidelity of four satellite-based soil moisture products (AMSR2, CCI, SMAP, and SMOS) using in situ observation during the period 2019–2020. The spatial distribution and variability of different soil moisture products in northern China were analyzed for different seasons and climate zones. The satellite products showed the best performance of summer soil moisture with the bias and uncertainty of the three products (CCI, SMAP, and SMOS) being less than 0.041 and 0.097, whereas soil moisture showed a large bias in winter. For all seasons, AMSR2 and CCI demonstrated a positive bias whereas SMAP and SMOS showed a negative bias. CCI product had little bias in spring, summer, and fall in northern China, while SMAP and SMOS had the smallest bias in winter. For different climate zones, CCI product performed better in describing the temporal variability of soil moisture in arid climate zones with the correlation coefficients > 0.50 for most areas, while AMSR2 product provided a similar spatial distribution. In the eastern monsoon region, the soil moisture from SMAP and SMOS was found to have a large bias, whereas the bias in CCI product was small. Four products failed to reproduce the observed soil moisture characteristics in the transitional zones affected by the summer monsoon, with a positive bias found in AMSR2 and CCI and the largest biases in SMAP and SMOS products. We also suggest several reasons for the bias and error in the satellite soil moisture products. These results have important implications for soil moisture studies over midlatitude regions.

Spatiotemporal Response of Hydrological Drought to Meteorological Drought on Multi-Time Scales Concerning Endorheic Basin

Under the controversial background of “Northwestern China is gradually developing towards warm and humid”, how hydrological drought responds to meteorological drought at the endorheic basin is of great significance. To address this problem, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological and hydrological droughts at Tarim Basin River from 1960 to 2014 by using the daily standardized precipitation index (SPI) and daily standardized terrestrial water storage index (SWSI) based on the reanalysis data. Thereafter, we explored the spatiotemporal response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought on the multi-time scale by using the cross-wavelet transform method, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), and correlation analysis. We find that: (1) both meteorological and hydrological droughts signified a gradually weakened trend in time; (2) meteorological and hydrological drought have significant resonance periods on the 10-month time scale and the 8-year time scale; (3) hydrological drought generally lags behind the meteorological drought by 7 days in plains areas, while it can last as long as several months or even a year in mountainous areas.

Evaluation of 2-m Air Temperature and Surface Temperature from ERA5 and ERA-I Using Buoy Observations in the Arctic during 2010–2020

In data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, atmospheric reanalysis is one of the key tools for understanding rapid climate change at the regional and global scales. The utility of reanalysis datasets based on data assimilation is affected by their accuracy and biases. Therefore, it is important to evaluate their performance. Here, we conduct inter-comparisons of two temperature variables, namely, the 2-m air temperature (Ta) and the surface temperature (Ts), from the widely used ERA-I and ERA5 reanalysis datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against in situ observations from three international buoy programs (i.e., the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP), the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), and the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL)) during 2010–2020 in the Arctic. Overall, the results show that both the ERA-I and ERA5 were well correlated with the buoy observations, with the highest correlation coefficient reaching 0.98. There were generally warm Ta biases for both ERA-I (2.27 ± 3.33 °C) and ERA5 (2.34 ± 3.22 °C) when compared with more than 3000 matching pairs of daily buoy observations. The warm Ta biases of both reanalysis datasets exhibited seasonal variations, reaching the maximum of 3.73 ± 2.84 °C in April and the minimum of 1.36 ± 2.51 °C in September. For Ts, both ERA-I and ERA5 exhibited good consistencies with the buoy observations, but have higher amplitude biases compared with those for Ta, with generally negative biases of −4.79 ± 4.86 °C for ERA-I and −4.11 ± 3.92 °C for ERA5. For both reanalysis datasets, the largest bias of Ts (−11.18 ± 3.08 °C) occurred in December, while the biases were rather small (less than −3 °C) in the warmer months (April to October). The cold Ts biases for ERA-I and ERA5 were probably overestimated due to the location of the surface temperature sensors on the buoys, which may have been affected by snow cover. Both the Ta and Ts biases varied for different buoy programs and different sea ice concentration conditions, yet they exhibited similar trends.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Water Vapor Content and Its Relationship with Meteorological Elements in the Third Pole

Water vapor content plays an important role in climate change and the ecosystem in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) through its complicated interaction with the meteorological elements. However, due to the complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau, it is unreliable to attempt to understand the variation pattern of water vapor content using only observational data. Satellite and reanalysis data can be a good substitute for observational data, but their accuracy still needs to be evaluated. Therefore, based on radiosonde stations data, comprehensive assessment of water vapor content on the TP and surrounding areas derived from ERA-5, Second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)-only, and weighted ensemble data was performed in the context of spatial and temporal distribution at the annual and seasonal scale. Based on precipitation from Gauge V3.0 and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) and temperature from ERA-5, the relationship between water vapor content and temperature and precipitation was analyzed. The results show that water vapor content decreases from southeast to northwest, and ERA-5, MERRA2, and AIRS-only can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of annual and seasonal water vapor content, with ERA-5 being more reliable in reproducing the spatial distribution. Over the past 50 years, the water vapor content has shown a gradual increasing trend. The variation trends of AIRS-only, MERRA2, ERA-5, and weighted ensemble data are almost consistent with the radiosonde stations data, with MERRA2 being more reliable in capturing water vapor content over time. Weighted ensemble data is more capable of capturing water vapor content characteristics than simple unweighted products. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first spatial mode values of water vapor content and temperature are positive over the TP, while the values of precipitation present a “negative-positive-negative” distribution from south to north over the TP. In the second spatial mode of EOF analysis, the values of water vapor content, air temperature, and precipitation are all negative. The first temporal modes of EOF analysis, water vapor content, air temperature, and precipitation all show an increasing trend. In conclusion, there is a clear relationship of water vapor content with temperature and precipitation.

Estimation of Long-Term Surface Downward Longwave Radiation over the Global Land from 2000 to 2018

It is of great importance for climate change studies to construct a worldwide, long-term surface downward longwave radiation (Ld, 4–100 μm) dataset. Although a number of global Ld datasets are available, their low accuracies and coarse spatial resolutions limit their applications. This study generated a daily Ld dataset with a 5-km spatial resolution over the global land surface from 2000 to 2018 using atmospheric parameters, which include 2-m air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) at 1000 hPa, total column water vapor (TCWV), surface downward shortwave radiation (Sd), and elevation, based on the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method. The generated Ld dataset was evaluated using ground measurements collected from AmeriFlux, AsiaFlux, baseline surface radiation network (BSRN), surface radiation budget network (SURFRAD), and FLUXNET networks. The validation results showed that the root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and correlation coefficient (R) values of the generated daily Ld dataset were 17.78 W m−2, 0.99 W m−2, and 0.96 (p < 0.01). Comparisons with other global land surface radiation products indicated that the generated Ld dataset performed better than the clouds and earth’s radiant energy system synoptic (CERES-SYN) edition 4.1 dataset and ERA5 reanalysis product at the selected sites. In addition, the analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics for the generated Ld dataset showed an increasing trend of 1.8 W m−2 per decade (p < 0.01) from 2003 to 2018, which was closely related to Ta and water vapor pressure. In general, the generated Ld dataset has a higher spatial resolution and accuracy, which can contribute to perfect the existing radiation products.

Spatio-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Snow Depth and Snow Cover Days over the Tibetan Plateau

Changes in snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have a significant impact on agriculture, hydrology, and ecological environment of surrounding areas. This study investigates the spatio-temporal pattern of snow depth (SD) and snow cover days (SCD), as well as the impact of temperature and precipitation on snow cover over TP from 1979 to 2018 by using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, and uses the Mann–Kendall test for significance. The results indicate that (1) the average annual SD and SCD in the southern and western edge areas of TP are relatively high, reaching 10 cm and 120 d or more, respectively. (2) In the past 40 years, SD (s = 0.04 cm decade−1, p = 0.81) and SCD (s = −2.3 d decade−1, p = 0.10) over TP did not change significantly. (3) The positive feedback effect of precipitation is the main factor affecting SD, while the negative feedback effect of temperature is the main factor affecting SCD. This study improves the understanding of snow cover change and is conducive to the further study of climate change on TP.

The Impact of the Observation Data Assimilation on Atmospheric Reanalyses over Tibetan Plateau and Western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau

Three modern atmospheric reanalyses with different input observation data (NOAA–CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and JRA-55C) were compared against the independent radiosonde observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the western Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (YGP) from the China-Japan Meteorological Disaster Reduction Cooperation (JICA/Tibet) Center Project in the summer of 2018 to investigate the effects of the assimilation of the observation data on the quality and accuracy of the reanalyses in the troposphere. The results indicate that the mean biases and mean root-mean-square errors of horizontal wind, temperature, and specific humidity significantly decreased when comparing the 20CR reanalysis (assimilating only surface pressure) to the JRA-55C (assimilating conventional surface and upper-air observations) and the JRA-55 (assimilating conventional and satellite observations), and the bias spreads of these aboveground variables in JRA-55C and JRA-55 were cut to almost half of those observed in 20CR. However, the mean biases and uncertainties varied little from JRA-55C to JRA-55. This means that the assimilation of conventional observation data plays a vital role in the quality of reanalyses for the troposphere over these data-sparse plateaus. It was also found that the temperature and specific humidity near the ground over TP showed larger mean biases and bias spans than those over YGP, likely due to the sparser surface observation over TP.

Intercomparison of Gridded Precipitation Datasets over a Sub-Region of the Central Himalaya and the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

Precipitation is a central quantity of hydrometeorological research and applications. Especially in complex terrain, such as in High Mountain Asia (HMA), surface precipitation observations are scarce. Gridded precipitation products are one way to overcome the limitations of ground truth observations. They can provide datasets continuous in both space and time. However, there are many products available, which use various methods for data generation and lead to different precipitation values. In our study we compare nine different gridded precipitation products from different origins (ERA5, ERA5-Land, ERA-interim, HAR v2 10 km, HAR v2 2 km, JRA-55, MERRA-2, GPCC and PRETIP) over a subregion of the Central Himalaya and the Southwest Tibetan Plateau, from May to September 2017. Total spatially averaged precipitation over the study period ranged from 411 mm (GPCC) to 781 mm (ERA-Interim) with a mean value of 623 mm and a standard deviation of 132 mm. We found that the gridded products and the few observations, with few exceptions, are consistent among each other regarding precipitation variability and rough amount within the study area. It became obvious that higher grid resolution can resolve extreme precipitation much better, leading to overall lower mean precipitation spatially, but higher extreme precipitation events. We also found that generally high terrain complexity leads to larger differences in the amount of precipitation between products. Due to the considerable differences between products in space and time, we suggest carefully selecting the product used as input for any research application based on the type of application and specific research question. While coarse products such as ERA-Interim or ERA5 that cover long periods but have coarse grid resolution have previously shown to be able to capture long-term trends and help with identifying climate change features, this study suggests that more regional applications, such as glacier mass-balance modeling, require higher spatial resolution, as is reproduced, for example, in HAR v2 10 km.

Inter-Comparison of Gauge-Based Gridded Data, Reanalysis and Satellite Precipitation Product with an Emphasis on Hydrological Modeling

Precipitation is essential for modeling the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. There exist multiple precipitation products of different sources and precision. We evaluate the influence of different precipitation product on model parameters and streamflow predictive uncertainty using a soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model for a forest dominated catchment in India. We used IMD (gridded rainfall dataset), TRMM (satellite product), bias-corrected TRMM (corrected satellite product) and NCEP-CFSR (reanalysis dataset) over a period from 1998–2012 for simulating streamflow. The precipitation analysis using statistical measures revealed that the TRMM and CFSR data slightly overestimate rainfall compared to the ground-based IMD data. However, the TRMM estimates improved, applying a bias correction. The Nash–Sutcliffe (and R2) values for TRMM, TRMMbias and CFSR, are 0.58 (0.62), 0.62 (0.63) and 0.52 (0.54), respectively at model calibrated with IMD data (Scenario A). The models of each precipitation product (Scenario B) yielded Nash–Sutcliffe (and R2) values 0.71 (0.76), 0.74 (0.78) and 0.76 (0.77) for TRMM, TRMMbias and CFSR datasets, respectively. Thus, the hydrological model-based evaluation revealed that the model calibration with individual rainfall data as input showed increased accuracy in the streamflow simulation. IMD and TRMM forced models to perform better in capturing the streamflow simulations than the CFSR reanalysis-driven model. Overall, our results showed that TRMM data after proper correction could be a good alternative for ground observations for driving hydrological models.

Terrestrial Water Storage Change Retrieved by GRACE and Its Implication in the Tibetan Plateau: Estimating Areal Precipitation in Ungauged Region

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is referred to as the water tower of Asia, where water storage and precipitation have huge impacts on most major Asian rivers. Based on gravity recovery and climate experiment data, this study analyzed the terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and estimated areal precipitation based on the water balance equation in four different basins, namely, the upper Yellow River (UYE), the upper Yangtze River (UYA), the Yarlung Zangbo River (YZ), and the Qiangtang Plateau (QT). The results show that the TWS change exhibits different patterns in the four basins and varies from −13 to 2 mm/year from 2003 to 2017. The estimated mean annual precipitation was 260 ± 19 mm/year (QT), 697 ± 26 mm/year (UYA), 541 ± 36 mm/year (UYE), and 1160 ± 39 mm/year (YZ) which performed better than other precipitation products in the TP. It indicates a potential method for estimating basin-scale precipitation through integrating basin average precipitation from the water balance equation in the poorly gauged and ungauged regions.

Evaluation of Noah-MP Land-Model Uncertainties over Sparsely Vegetated Sites on the Tibet Plateau

The water budget and energy exchange over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region play an important role on the Asian monsoon. However, it is not well presented in the current land surface models (LSMs). In this study, uncertainties in the Noah with multiparameterization (Noah-MP) LSM are assessed through physics ensemble simulations in three sparsely vegetated sites located in the central TP. The impact of soil organic matter on energy flux and water cycles, along with the influence of uncertainties in precipitation are explored using observations at those sites during the third Tibetan Plateau Experiment from 1August2014 to31July2015. The greatest uncertainties are in the subprocesses of the canopy resistance, soil moisture limiting factors for evaporation, runoff (RNF) and ground water, and surface-layer parameterization. These uncertain subprocesses do not change across the different precipitation datasets. More precipitation can increase the annual total net radiation (Rn), latent heat flux (LH) and RNF, but decrease sensible heat flux (SH). Soil organic matter enlarges the annual total LH by ~26% but lessens the annual total Rn, SH, and RNF by ~7%, 7%, and 39%, respectively. Its effect on the LH and RNF at the Nagqu site, which has a sand soil texture type, is greater than that at the other two sites with sandy loam. This study highlights the importance of precipitation uncertainties and the effect of soil organic matter on the Noah-MP land-model simulations. It provides a guidance to improve the Noah-MP LSM further and hence the land-atmosphere interactions simulated by weather and climate models over the TP region.

Evaluation of Seven Atmospheric Profiles from Reanalysis and Satellite-Derived Products: Implication for Single-Channel Land Surface Temperature Retrieval

Land surface temperature (LST) is vital for studies of hydrology, ecology, climatology, and environmental monitoring. The radiative-transfer-equation-based single-channel algorithm, in conjunction with the atmospheric profile, is regarded as the most suitable one with which to produce long-term time series LST products from Landsat thermal infrared (TIR) data. In this study, the performances of seven atmospheric profiles from different sources (the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiomete atmospheric profile product (MYD07), the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder atmospheric profile product (AIRS), the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Global Forecasting System (GFS), NCEP/Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL), and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE)) were comprehensively evaluated in the single-channel algorithm for LST retrieval from Landsat 8 TIR data. Results showed that when compared with the radio sounding profile downloaded from the University of Wyoming (UWYO), the worst accuracies of atmospheric parameters were obtained for the MYD07 profile. Furthermore, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) values (approximately 0.5 K) of the retrieved LST when using the ECMWF, MERRA2, NCEP/GFS, and NCEP/FNL profiles were smaller than those but greater than 0.8 K when the MYD07, AIRS, and NCEP/DOE profiles were used. Compared with the in situ LST measurements that were collected at the Hailar, Urad Front Banner, and Wuhai sites, the RMSE values of the LST that were retrieved by using the ECMWF, MERRA2, NCEP/GFS, and NCEP/FNL profiles were approximately 1.0 K. The largest discrepancy between the retrieved and in situ LST was obtained for the NCEP/DOE profile, with an RMSE value of approximately 1.5 K. The results reveal that the ECMWF, MERRA2, NCEP/GFS, and NCEP/FNL profiles have great potential to perform accurate atmospheric correction and generate long-term time series LST products from Landsat TIR data by using a single-channel algorithm.

Multi-Model Evaluation of Meteorological Drivers, Air Pollutants and Quantification of Emission Sources over the Upper Brahmaputra Basin

The temporal distributions of meteorological drivers and air pollutants over Dibrugarh, a location in the upper Brahmaputra basin, are studied using observations, models and reanalysis data. The study aims to assess the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem), the WRF coupled with Sulfur Transport dEposition Model (WRF-STEM), and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) model over Dibrugarh for the first time. The meteorological variables and air pollutants viz., black carbon(BC), carbon monoxide(CO), sulphur dioxide(SO2), Ozone(O3), and oxides of Nitrogen(NOx) obtained from WRF-Chem, WRF-STEM and CAMS are evaluated with observations. The source region tagged CO simulated by WRF-STEM delineate the regional contribution of CO. The principal source region of anthropogenic CO over Dibrugarh is North-Eastern India with a 59% contribution followed by that from China (17%), Indo-Gangetic Plains (14%), Bangladesh (6%), other parts of India (3%) and other regions (1%). Further, the BC-CO regression analysis is used to delineate the local emission sources. The BC-CO correlations estimated from models (0.99 for WRF-Chem, 0.96 for WRF-STEM, 0.89 for CAMS), and reanalysis (0.8 for Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) are maximum in pre-monsoon whereas surface observations show highest correlations (0.81) in winter. In pre-monsoon season, 90% of the modeled CO is due to biomass burning over Dibrugarh.

Development and Evaluation of an Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System for Regional Reanalysis Over the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Regions

The Tibetan Plateau is regarded as the Earth's Third Pole, which is the source region of several major rivers that impact more 20% the world population. This high-altitude region is reported to have been undergoing much greater rate of weather changes under global warming, but the existing reanalysis products are inadequate for depicting the state of the atmosphere, particularly with regard to the amount of precipitation and its diurnal cycle. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system based on the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated for use in developing a regional reanalysis over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding regions. A 3-month prototype reanalysis over the summer months (June-August) of 2015 using WRF-EnKF at a 30-km grid spacing to assimilate nonradiance observations from the Global Telecommunications System was developed and evaluated against independent sounding and satellite observations in comparison to the ERA-Interim and fifth European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) global reanalysis. Results showed that both the posterior analysis and the subsequent 6- to 12-hr WRF forecasts of the prototype regional reanalysis compared favorably with independent sounding observations, satellite-based precipitation versus those from ERA-Interim and ERA5 during the same period. In particular, the prototype regional reanalysis had clear advantages over the global reanalyses of ERA-Interim and ERA5 in the analysis accuracy of atmospheric humidity, as well as in the subsequent downscale-simulated precipitation intensity, spatial distribution, diurnal evolution, and extreme occurrence.

Changing the Day-Ahead Gate Closure to Wind Power Integration: A Simulation-Based Study

Currently, in most European electricity markets, power bids are based on forecasts performed 12 to 36 hours ahead. Actual wind power forecast systems still lead to large errors, which may strongly impact electricity market outcomes. Accordingly, this article analyzes the impact of the wind power forecast uncertainty and the change of the day-ahead market gate closure on both the market-clearing prices and the outcomes of the balancing market. To this end, it presents a simulation-based study conducted with the help of an agent-based tool, called MATREM. The results support the following conclusion: a change in the gate closure to a time closer to real-time operation is beneficial to market participants and the energy system generally.

Evaluating the uncertainty of terrestrial water budget components over High Mountain Asia

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff(R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11±0.45, 1.26±0.11, and 0.85±0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

A Study on the Assessment of Multi-Source Satellite Soil Moisture Products and Reanalysis Data for the Tibetan Plateau

Soil moisture is a key variable in the process of land–atmosphere energy and water exchange. Currently, there are a large number of operational satellite-derived soil moisture products and reanalysis soil moisture products available. However, due to the lack of in situ soil moisture measurements over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), their accuracy and applicability are unclear. Based on the in situ measurements of the soil moisture observing networks established at Maqu, Naqu, Ali, and Shiquanhe (Sq) by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environmental Resources, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of Twente over the TP, the accuracy and reliability of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture version 4.4 (ESA CCI SM v4.4) soil moisture products and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) soil moisture product were evaluated. The spatiotemporal distributions and interannual variations of the soil moisture were analyzed. Further, the climatological soil moisture changing trends across the TP were explored. The results show that with regard to the whole plateau, the combined product performs the best (unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) = 0.043 m3/m3, R = 0.66), followed by the active product (ubRMSE = 0.048 m3/m3, R = 0.62), the passive product (ubRMSE = 0.06 m3/m3, R = 0.61), and the ERA5 soil moisture product (ubRMSE = 0.067 m3/m3, R = 0.52). Considering the good spatiotemporal data continuity of the ERA5 soil moisture product, the ERA5 soil moisture data from 1979 to 2018 were used to analyze the climatological soil moisture changing trend for the entire TP surface. It was found that there was an increasing trend of soil moisture across the TP, which was consistent with the overall trends of increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Moreover, the shrinkage of the cryosphere in conjunction with the background TP warming presumably contribute to soil moisture change.

Evaluation of Multi-Reanalysis Solar Radiation Products Using Global Surface Observations

Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface is an essential driver of the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface and is also an important input variable in the research on the surface eco-hydrological process. The reanalysis solar radiation dataset is characterized by a long time series and wide spatial coverage and is used in the research of large-scale eco-hydrological processes. Due to certain errors in their production process of the reanalysis of solar radiation products, reanalysis products should be evaluated before application. In this study, three global solar-radiation reanalysis products (ERA-Interim; JRA-55; and NCEP-DOE) in different temporal scales and climate zones were evaluated using surface solar-radiation observations from the National Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA, Beijing, China) and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, Zürich, Switzerland) from 2000 to 2009. All reanalysis products (ERA-Interim; JRA-55; and NCEP-DOE) overestimated with an annual bias of 14.86 W/m2, 22.61 W/m2, and 31.85 W/m2; monthly bias of 15.17 W/m2, 21.29 W/m2, and 36.91 W/m2; and seasonal bias of 15.08 W/m2, 21.21 W/m2, and 36.69 W/m2, respectively. In different Köppen climate zones, the annual solar radiation of ERA-Interim performed best in cold regions with a bias of 10.30 W/m2 and absolute relative error (ARE) of 8.98%. However, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE showed the best performance in tropical regions with a bias of 20.08 W/m2 and −0.12 W/m2, and ARE of 11.00% and 9.68%, respectively. Overall, through the evaluations across different temporal and spatial scales, the rank of the three reanalysis products in order was the ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP-DOE. In addition, based on the evaluation, we analyzed the relationship between the error (ARE) of the reanalysis products and cloud cover, aerosol, and water vapor, which significantly influences solar radiation and we found that cloud was the main cause for errors in the three solar radiation reanalysis products. The above can provide a reference for the application and downscaling of the three solar radiation reanalysis products.

Evaluation of Hydrological Application of CMADS in Jinhua River Basin, China

Evaluating the hydrological application of reanalysis datasets is of practical importance for the design of water resources management and flood controlling facilities in regions with sparse meteorological data. This paper compared a new reanalysis dataset named CMADS with gauge observations and investigated the performance of the hydrological application of CMADS on daily streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture content simulations. The results show that: CMADS can represent meteorological elements including precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed reasonably for both daily and monthly temporal scales while underestimates precipitation compared with gauge observations slightly (<15%). The hydrological model using CMADS dataset as meteorological inputs can capture the daily streamflow chracteristics well overall (with a NS value of 0.56 during calibration period and 0.61 during validation period) but underestimates streamflow obviously (with a BIAS of − 42.42 % during calibration period and a BIAS of − 33.29 % during validation period). The underestimation of streamflow simulated with CMADS dataset is more seriously in dry seasons ( − 48.40 %) than that in wet seasons ( − 39.41 %) for calibration period. The model driven by CMADS estimates evapotranspiration and soil moisture content well compared with the model driven by gauge observations.

Evaluation and Hydrological Simulation of CMADS and CFSR Reanalysis Datasets in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Multisource reanalysis datasets provide an effective way to help us understand hydrological processes in inland alpine regions with sparsely distributed weather stations. The accuracy and quality of two widely used datasets, the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets to force the SWAT model (CMADS), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TP), were evaluated in this paper. The accuracy of daily precipitation, max/min temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from CMADS and CFSR are firstly evaluated by comparing them with results obtained from 131 meteorological stations in the TP. Statistical results show that most elements of CMADS are superior to those of CFSR. The average correlation coefficient (R) between the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature of CMADS and CFSR ranged from 0.93 to 0.97. The root mean square error (RMSE) for CMADS and CFSR ranged from 3.16 to 3.18 °C, and ranged from 5.19 °C to 8.14 °C respectively. The average R of precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed for CMADS are 0.46; 0.88 and 0.64 respectively, while they are 0.43, 0.52, and 0.37 for CFSR. Gridded observation data is obtained using the professional interpolation software, ANUSPLIN. Meteorological elements from three gridded data have a similar overall distribution but have a different partial distribution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate hydrological processes in the Yellow River Source Basin of the TP. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficients (NSE) of CMADS+SWAT in calibration and validation period are 0.78 and 0.68 for the monthly scale respectively, which are better than those of CFSR+SWAT and OBS+SWAT in the Yellow River Source Basin. The relationship between snowmelt and other variables is measured by GeoDetector. Air temperature, soil moisture, and soil temperature at 1.038 m has a greater influence on snowmelt than others.

Spatial patterns of wet season precipitation vertical gradients on the Tibetan Plateau and the surroundings

The Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding (TPS) with its vast land mass and high elevation affects regional climate and weather. The TPS is also the headwater of 9 major Asian rivers that provide fresh water for 1.65 billion people and many ecosystems, with wet season (May-September) precipitation being the critical component of the fresh water. Using station observations, ERA-Interim and MERRA2 reanalysis, we find that wet season precipitation displays vertical gradients (i.e., changes with elevation) that vary within the region on the TPS. The decrease of precipitation with elevation occurs in the interior TPS with elevation larger than 4000 m, little or no change over the southeastern TPS, and increase elsewhere. The increase of precipitation with elevation is caused by increasing convective available potential energy (CAPE) and decreasing lifting condensation level (LCL) with elevation overwhelming the effects of decreasing total column water vapor (TCWV) with elevation. The decreasing precipitation with elevation is due to the combined effects of increasing LCL and decreasing TCWV. LCL and CAPE play a more important role than TCWV in determining the spatial patterns. These findings are important for hydrology study in observation scarce mountainous areas, water resources and ecosystem managements in the region.

An Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Algorithm for Estimating Terrestrial Latent Heat Flux from Eddy Covariance, Meteorological and Satellite Observations

Accurate estimation of latent heat flux (LE) based on remote sensing data is critical in characterizing terrestrial ecosystems and modeling land surface processes. Many LE products were released during the past few decades, but their quality might not meet the requirements in terms of data consistency and estimation accuracy. Merging multiple algorithms could be an effective way to improve the quality of existing LE products. In this paper, we present a data integration method based on modified empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to integrate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LE product (MOD16) and the Priestley-Taylor LE algorithm of Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) estimate. Twenty-two eddy covariance (EC) sites with LE observation were chosen to evaluate our algorithm, showing that the proposed EOF fusion method was capable of integrating the two satellite data sets with improved consistency and reduced uncertainties. Further efforts were needed to evaluate and improve the proposed algorithm at larger spatial scales and time periods, and over different land cover types.

Evaluation of gridded precipitation data for driving SWAT model in area upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir

Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend - surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography.