Ship Emission Impacts on Air Quality and Human Health in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region, China, in 2015, With Projections to 2030

Effects of ambient air pollution from shipping on mortality: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Shipping contributes to air pollution causing adverse health effects. We conducted for the first time a systematic review on the health and economic impacts of ambient air pollution from shipping emissions.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search in PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO (Medline), and Scopus of all time up to December 2023. We then inter-compared semi-quantitatively the results of the included eligible studies.

RESULTS

We identified 23 eligible studies, 22 applying health impact assessment, and 1 using epidemiological methods. These studies used different methods for the evaluation of emissions, dispersion, and exposure, and for the exposure-mortality risk functions for exposure to shipping emissions for 1-2 years. The estimated excess global all-cause mortality from six studies ranged between 1 and 5 deaths per 100,000 person-years. However, the heterogeneity of the methods and critical gaps in the reporting seriously limited the synthesis of the evidence on health and economic effects of shipping emissions. Sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions in both dispersion and exposure modeling, as well as presentation of uncertainties is needed. Health impact assessment should present the results with all the main risk functions and population attributable risks, and the magnitude of the effect should be expressed in excess number per a given person-time or per population size. Economic effects should also cover work productivity, mental well-being, and cognitive functions.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that future studies should properly evaluate and report the uncertainty ranges and the confidence limits of the results. Rigorous studies are needed on multipollutant exposures, exposures from various source categories, and exposures attributed to various particulate matter measures. Studies should report the health impact measures in a format that facilitates straightforward inter-study comparisons. Further research should also specifically report the used grid spacings and resolutions and evaluate whether these are optimal for the task.

Environmental Justice and Systems Analysis for Air Quality Planning in the Port of Oakland in California

Many frontline communities experience adverse health impacts from living in proximity to high-polluting industrial sources. Securing environmental justice requires, in part, a comprehensive set of quantitative indicators. We incorporate environmental justice and life-cycle thinking into air quality planning to assess fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and monetized damages from operating and maintaining the Port of Oakland, a major multimodal marine port located in the historically marginalized West Oakland community in the San Francisco Bay Area. The exposure domain for the assessment is the entire San Francisco Bay Area, a home to more than 7.5 million people. Of the more than 14 sources included in the emissions inventory, emissions from large container ships, or ocean-going vessels (OGVs), dominate the PM2.5 intake, and supply chain sources (material production and delivery, fuel production) represent between 3.5% and 7.5% of annual intake. Exposure damages, which model the costs from excess mortalities resulting from exposure from the study's emission sources, range from USD 100 to 270 million per annum. Variations in damages are due to the use of different concentration-response relationships, hazard ratios, and Port resurfacing area assumptions. Racial and income-based exposure disparities are stark. The Black population and people within the lowest income quintile are 2.2 and 1.9 times more disproportionately exposed, respectively, to the Port's pollution sources relative to the general population. Mitigation efforts focused on electrifying in-port trucking operations yield modest reductions (3.5%) compared to strategies that prioritize emission reductions from OGVs and commercial harbor craft operations (8.7-55%). Our recommendations emphasize that a systems-based approach is critical for identifying all relevant emission sources and mitigation strategies for improving equity in civil infrastructure systems.

Ports and their influence on local air pollution and public health: A global analysis

Despite the skyrocketing growth in recent decades of environmental studies on ports and shipping, their local health impacts remain largely under-researched. This article tackles this gap in research by statistically analyzing data on global shipping flows across nearly 5000 ports in 35 OECD countries between 2001 and 2018. The different traffic types, from containers to bulk and passengers, are analyzed jointly with data on natural conditions, air pollution, socio-economic indicators, and public health. The principal results show that port regions pollute more than non-port regions on average, while health impacts vary according to the size and specialization of the port region. Three types of port regions are clearly differentiated: industrial, intermediate, and metropolitan port regions.

Spatial and temporal variations of surface background ozone in China analyzed with the grid-stretching capability of GEOS-Chem High Performance

Surface background ozone, defined as the ozone in the absence of domestic anthropogenic emissions, is important for developing emission reduction strategies. Here we apply the recently developed GEOS-Chem High Performance (GCHP) global atmospheric chemistry model with ∼0.5° stretched resolution over China to understand the sources of Chinese background ozone (CNB) in the metric of daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) and to identify the drivers of its interannual variability (IAV) from 2015 to 2019. The GCHP ozone simulations over China are evaluated with an ensemble of surface and aircraft measurements. The five-year national-mean CNB ozone is estimated as 37.9 ppbv, with a spatially west-to-southeast downward gradient (55 to 25 ppbv) and a summer peak (42.5 ppbv). High background levels in western China are due to abundant transport from the free troposphere and adjacent foreign regions, while in eastern China, domestic formation from surface natural precursors is also important. We find greater importance of soil nitric oxides (NOx) than biogenic volatile organic compound emissions to CNB ozone in summer (6.4 vs. 3.9 ppbv), as ozone formation becomes increasingly NOx-sensitive when suppressing anthropogenic emissions. The percentage of daily CNB ozone to total surface ozone generally decreases with increasing daily total ozone, indicating an increased contribution of domestic anthropogenic emissions on polluted days. CNB ozone shows the largest IAV in summer, with standard deviations (seasonal means) of ∼5 ppbv over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and >3.5 ppbv in eastern China. CNB values in QTP are strongly correlated with horizontal circulation anomalies in the middle troposphere, while soil NOx emissions largely drive the IAV in the east. El Nino can inhibit CNB ozone formation in Southeast China by increased precipitation and lower temperature locally in spring, but enhance CNB in Southwest China through increased biomass burning emissions in Southeast Asia.

Humic-like Substances (HULIS) in Ship Engine Emissions: Molecular Composition Effected by Fuel Type, Engine Mode, and Wet Scrubber Usage

Humic-like substances (HULIS), known for their substantial impact on the atmosphere, are identified in marine diesel engine emissions obtained from five different fuels at two engine loads simulating real world scenarios as well as the application of wet sulfur scrubbers. The HULIS chemical composition is characterized by electrospray ionization (ESI) ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry and shown to contain partially oxidized alkylated polycyclic aromatic compounds as well as partially oxidized aliphatic compounds, both including abundant nitrogen- and sulfur-containing species, and clearly different to HULIS emitted from biomass burning. Fuel properties such as sulfur content and aromaticity as well as the fuel combustion efficiency and engine mode are reflected in the observed HULIS composition. When the marine diesel engine is operated below the optimum engine settings, e.g., during maneuvering in harbors, HULIS-C emission factors are increased (262-893 mg kg-1), and a higher number of HULIS with a shift toward lower degree of oxidation and higher aromaticity is detected. Additionally, more aromatic and aliphatic CHOS compounds in HULIS were detected, especially for high-sulfur fuel combustion. The application of wet sulfur scrubbers decreased the HULIS-C emission factors by 4-49% but also led to the formation of new HULIS compounds. Overall, our results suggest the consideration of marine diesel engines as a relevant regional source of HULIS emissions.

Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Globalisation has led to international trade expand rapidly. Seaborne transport moves 80% of traded goods across the globe, producing around 3% of greenhouse gases and other hazardous pollutants, such as PM, NO_x and SO_x, known to be harmful to health.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was conducted reviewing peer-reviewed studies on health impact assessments (HIA) of global shipping and port-sourced air pollution. For review inclusion, studies had to (1) use a HIA methodology; (2) quantify the air pollution concentration attributable to at least one shipping or port activity scenario; (3) assess at least one health outcome (i.e. epidemiological measure or monetization); (4) quantify the attributable health burden of the respective scenario.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included, studying predominantly European Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions with health impacts for global or respective European populations. Also, Global, Asian, North American and Australian Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions were studied, with attributable health impacts for global or respective populations. The health outcome predominantly studied was mortality (all-cause, cause-specific, loss in life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs)), but also morbidity (disease cases, hospital admissions, years lived with disability (YLDs)), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), restricted activity days and work loss days. The highest air pollution concentrations were identified along major shipping routes and ports, and the strongest health impacts occurred among respective riparian populations. Globally, ∼265,000 premature deaths were projected for 2020 (∼0.5% of global mortality) attributable to global shipping-sourced emissions. Emission control scenarios studied were predominantly sulphur fuel content caps and NO_x emission reduction scenarios, consisting of technological interventions, cleaner fuels or fuel switches, and were assessed as effective in reducing shipping-sourced emissions, and hence, health burdens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review positions maritime transport an important source of air pollution and health risk factor, which needs more research and policy attention and rigorous emission control efforts, as shipping-sourced emissions are projected to increase with increases in global trade and shipping volumes.

Sensitivity of Air Pollution Exposure and Disease Burden to Emission Changes in China Using Machine Learning Emulation

Machine learning models can emulate chemical transport models, reducing computational costs and enabling more experimentation. We developed emulators to predict annual-mean fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) concentrations and their associated chronic health impacts from changes in five major emission sectors (residential, industrial, land transport, agriculture, and power generation) in China. The emulators predicted 99.9% of the variance in PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations. We used these emulators to estimate how emission reductions can attain air quality targets. In 2015, we estimate that PM_2.5 exposure was 47.4 μg m^-3 and O₃ exposure was 43.8 ppb, associated with 2,189,700 (95% uncertainty interval, 95UI: 1,948,000-2,427,300) premature deaths per year, primarily from PM_2.5 exposure (98%). PM_2.5 exposure and the associated disease burden were most sensitive to industry and residential emissions. We explore the sensitivity of exposure and health to different combinations of emission reductions. The National Air Quality Target (35 μg m^-3) for PM_2.5 concentrations can be attained nationally with emission reductions of 72% in industrial, 57% in residential, 36% in land transport, 35% in agricultural, and 33% in power generation emissions. We show that complete removal of emissions from these five sectors does not enable the attainment of the WHO Annual Guideline (5 μg m^-3) due to remaining air pollution from other sources. Our work provides the first assessment of how air pollution exposure and disease burden in China varies as emissions change across these five sectors and highlights the value of emulators in air quality research.

Emission Sector Impacts on Air Quality and Public Health in China From 2010 to 2020

Anthropogenic emissions and ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations have declined in recent years across China. However, PM_2.5 exposure remains high, ozone (O₃) exposure is increasing, and the public health impacts are substantial. We used emulators to explore how emission changes (averaged per sector over all species) have contributed to changes in air quality and public health in China over 2010-2020. We show that PM_2.5 exposure peaked in 2012 at 52.8 μg m^-3, with contributions of 31% from industry and 22% from residential emissions. In 2020, PM_2.5 exposure declined by 36% to 33.5 μg m^-3, where the contributions from industry and residential sources reduced to 15% and 17%, respectively. The PM_2.5 disease burden decreased by only 9% over 2012 where the contributions from industry and residential sources reduced to 15% and 17%, respectively 2020, partly due to an aging population with greater susceptibility to air pollution. Most of the reduction in PM_2.5 exposure and associated public health benefits occurred due to reductions in industrial (58%) and residential (29%) emissions. Reducing national PM_2.5 exposure below the World Health Organization Interim Target 2 (25 μg m^-3) would require a further 80% reduction in residential and industrial emissions, highlighting the challenges that remain to improve air quality in China.

Comparison of the Impact of Ship Emissions in Northern Europe and Eastern China

It is well known that ship emissions contribute significantly to atmospheric pollution. However, the impact on air quality can regionally vary, as influenced by parameters such as the composition of the regional shipping fleet, state of background atmospheric pollution, and meteorological aspects. This study compared two regions with high shipping densities in 2015. These include the North and Baltic Seas in Europe and the Yellow and East China Seas in China. Here, a key focal point is an evaluation of differences and similarities of the impacts of ship emissions under different environmental conditions, particularly between regions with medium (Europe) and high air pollution (China). To assess this, two similarly performed chemical transport model runs were carried out with highly resolved bottom-up ship emission inventories for northern Europe and China, calculated with the recently developed MoSES model, publicly available emissions data for nonshipping sources (EDGAR, MEIC). The performance of the model was evaluated against measurement data recorded at coastal stations. Annual averages at affected coastal regions for NO2, SO2, O3 and PM2.5 were modeled in Europe to be 3, below 0.3, 2.5, 1 and in China 3, 2, 2–8, 1.5, respectively, all given in μg/m3. In highly affected regions, such as large harbors, the contributions of ship-related emissions modeled in Europe were 15%, 0.3%, −12.5%, 1.25% and in China were 15%, 6%, −7.5%, 2%, respectively. Absolute pollutant concentrations from ships were modeled slightly higher in China than in Europe, albeit the relative impact was smaller in China due to higher emissions from other sectors. The different climate zones of China and the higher level of atmospheric pollution were found to seasonally alter the chemical transformation processes of ship emissions. Especially in northern China, high PM concentrations during winter were found to regionally inhibit the transformation of ship exhausts to secondary PM, and reduce the impact of ship-related aerosols, compared to Europe.

Environmental and human health impacts of cruise tourism: A review

The intensive growth of cruise tourism worldwide during recent decades is leading to growing concerns over the sector's global environmental and health impacts. This review combines for the first time various sources of information to estimate the magnitude of the cruise industry's environmental and public health footprints. This research shows that cruising, despite technical advances and some surveillance programmes, remains a major source of air, water (fresh and marine) and land pollution affecting fragile habitats, areas and species, and a potential source of physical and mental human health risks. Health risks impact both the people on board (crew and passengers) and on land (workers of shipyards where cruise ships are dismantled and citizens inhabiting cities with cruise ports and shipyards). In this context, we argue that the cruise industry should be held accountable with more monitoring and regulation to prevent or minimize the growing negative environmental and human health impacts.

Comparative study of the environmental footprints of marinas on European Islands

Ports have been key elements in Europe's economic development. This situation is even more relevant on islands, which are highly dependent on the maritime sector. Consequently, over the years, ports with diverse functionalities have been established both in mainland Europe and on its outlying islands. This article discusses the environmental impact of leisure marinas on European islands, especially as they are closely linked to economic development through tourism. The aim is to study the environmental impact of these infrastructures by determining the carbon and water footprints of marinas on European islands in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. The results obtained enable the authors to make recommendations in order to reduce the overall environmental footprint of marinas on islands, considering that these territories are much more vulnerable to climate change than mainland locations in Europe.