NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0: Stratospheric Composition

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) provides recent estimates and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near-real time. To do this, the GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere (0.01 hPa). The GEOS-CF system is described, including updates made to the GEOS-Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS-CF for improved representation of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar, and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of ozone (O3) and important nitrogen and chlorine species related to stratospheric O3 recovery. The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric O3 toward the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O3 product; as a result the stratospheric O3 in the GEOS-CF historical estimate agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS-CF O3 forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP O3 forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex GEOS-Chem UCX stratospheric chemistry. Overall, the spatial patterns of the GEOS-CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agree well with satellite observations. However, there are notable biases-such as low NO x and HNO3 in the polar regions and generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere-and future improvements to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS-CF is a new tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near-real-time three-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.

Transport of Nitric Oxide Via Lagrangian Coherent Structures Into the Top of the Polar Vortex

The energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect (IE) refers to the downward transport of reactive odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) produced by EPP (EPP-NOx) from the polar winter mesosphere and lower thermosphere to the stratosphere where it can destroy ozone. Previous studies of the EPP IE examined NOx descent averaged over the polar region, but the work presented here considers longitudinal variations. We report that the January 2009 split Arctic vortex in the stratosphere left an imprint on the distribution of NO near the mesopause, and that the magnitude of EPP-NOx descent in the upper mesosphere depends strongly on the planetary wave (PW) phase. We focus on an 11-day case study in late January immediately following the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming during which regional-scale Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) formed atop the strengthening mesospheric vortex. The LCSs emerged over the north Atlantic in the vicinity of the trough of a 10-day westward traveling planetary wave. Over the next week, the LCSs acted to confine NO-rich air to polar latitudes, effectively prolonging its lifetime as it descended into the top of the polar vortex. Both a whole atmosphere data assimilation model and satellite observations show that the PW trough remained coincident in space and time with the NO-rich air as both migrated westward over the Canadian Arctic. Estimates of descent rates indicate five times stronger descent inside the PW trough compared to other longitudes. This case serves to set the stage for future climatological analysis of NO transport via LCSs.

Co-evolution of atmospheres, life, and climate

After Earth's origin, our host star, the Sun, was shining 20-25% less brightly than today. Without greenhouse-like conditions to warm the atmosphere, our early planet would have been an ice ball, and life may never have evolved. But life did evolve, which indicates that greenhouse gases must have been present on early Earth to warm the planet. Evidence from the geological record indicates an abundance of the greenhouse gas CO(2). CH(4) was probably present as well; and, in this regard, methanogenic bacteria, which belong to a diverse group of anaerobic prokaryotes that ferment CO(2) plus H(2) to CH(4), may have contributed to modification of the early atmosphere. Molecular oxygen was not present, as is indicated by the study of rocks from that era, which contain iron carbonate rather than iron oxide. Multicellular organisms originated as cells within colonies that became increasingly specialized. The development of photosynthesis allowed the Sun's energy to be harvested directly by life-forms. The resultant oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere and formed the ozone layer in the upper atmosphere. Aided by the absorption of harmful UV radiation in the ozone layer, life colonized Earth's surface. Our own planet is a very good example of how life-forms modified the atmosphere over the planets' lifetime. We show that these facts have to be taken into account when we discover and characterize atmospheres of Earth-like exoplanets. If life has originated and evolved on a planet, then it should be expected that a strong co-evolution occurred between life and the atmosphere, the result of which is the planet's climate.