NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0: Stratospheric Composition

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) provides recent estimates and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near-real time. To do this, the GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere (0.01 hPa). The GEOS-CF system is described, including updates made to the GEOS-Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS-CF for improved representation of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar, and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of ozone (O₃) and important nitrogen and chlorine species related to stratospheric O₃ recovery. The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric O₃ toward the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O₃ product; as a result the stratospheric O₃ in the GEOS-CF historical estimate agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS-CF O₃ forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP O₃ forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex GEOS-Chem UCX stratospheric chemistry. Overall, the spatial patterns of the GEOS-CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agree well with satellite observations. However, there are notable biases-such as low NO _x and HNO₃ in the polar regions and generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere-and future improvements to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS-CF is a new tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near-real-time three-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.

Stratospheric intrusion-influenced ozone air quality exceedances investigated in the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Stratospheric intrusions have been the interest of decades of research for their ability to bring stratospheric ozone (O3) into the troposphere with the potential to enhance surface O3 concentrations. However, these intrusions have been misrepresented in models and reanalyses until recently, as the features of a stratospheric intrusion are best identified in horizontal resolutions of 50 km or smaller. NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis is a publicly-available high-resolution dataset (~50 km) with assimilated O3 that characterizes O3 on the same spatiotemporal resolution as the meteorology. We demonstrate the science capabilities of the MERRA-2 reanalysis when applied to the evaluation of stratospheric intrusions that impact surface air quality. This is demonstrated through a case study analysis of stratospheric intrusion-influenced O3 exceedences in spring 2012 in Colorado, using a combination of observations, the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) simulations.