Multiple sclerosis epidemiology in Sardinia: evidence for a true increasing risk

Multiple Sclerosis Heritability Estimation on Sardinian Ascertained Extended Families Using Bayesian Liability Threshold Model

Heritability studies represent an important tool to investigate the main sources of variability for complex diseases, whose etiology involves both genetics and environmental factors. In this paper, we aimed to estimate multiple sclerosis (MS) narrow-sense heritability (h2), on a liability scale, using extended families ascertained from affected probands sampled in the Sardinian province of Nuoro, Italy. We also investigated the sources of MS liability variability among shared environment effects, sex, and categorized year of birth (<1946, ≥1946). The latter can be considered a proxy for different early environmental exposures. To this aim, we implemented a Bayesian liability threshold model to obtain posterior distributions for the parameters of interest adjusting for ascertainment bias. Our analysis highlighted categorized year of birth as the main explanatory factor, explaining ~70% of MS liability variability (median value = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73), while h2 resulted near to 0% (median value = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.09). By performing a year of birth-stratified analysis, we found a high h2 only in individuals born on/after 1946 (median value = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.93), meaning that the genetic variability acquired a high explanatory role only when focusing on this subpopulation. Overall, the results obtained highlighted early environmental exposures, in the Sardinian population, as a meaningful factor involved in MS to be further investigated.

Evolutionary Aspects of Diverse Microbial Exposures and Mental Health: Focus on "Old Friends" and Stress Resilience

The prevalence of inflammatory disease conditions, including allergies, asthma, and autoimmune disorders, increased during the latter half of the twentieth century, as societies transitioned from rural to urban lifestyles. A number of hypotheses have been put forward to explain the increasing prevalence of inflammatory disease in modern urban societies, including the hygiene hypothesis and the "Old Friends" hypothesis. In 2008, Rook and Lowry proposed, based on the evidence that increased inflammation was a risk factor for stress-related psychiatric disorders, that the hygiene hypothesis or "Old Friends" hypothesis may be relevant to psychiatric disorders. Since then, it has become more clear that chronic low-grade inflammation is a risk factor for stress-related psychiatric disorders, including anxiety disorders, mood disorders, and trauma- and stressor-related disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Evidence now indicates that persons raised in modern urban environments without daily contact with pets, relative to persons raised in rural environments in proximity to farm animals, respond with greater systemic inflammation to psychosocial stress. Here we consider the possibility that increased inflammation in persons living in modern urban environments is due to a failure of immunoregulation, i.e., a balanced expression of regulatory and effector T cells, which is known to be dependent on microbial signals. We highlight evidence that microbial signals that can drive immunoregulation arise from phylogenetically diverse taxa but are strain specific. Finally, we highlight Mycobacterium vaccae NCTC 11659, a soil-derived bacterium with anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory properties, as a case study of how single strains of bacteria might be used in a psychoneuroimmunologic approach for prevention and treatment of stress-related psychiatric disorders.

Multiple sclerosis epidemiological trends in Italy highlight the environmental risk factors

Italy is definitely a high-risk country for multiple sclerosis (MS). Over the last 50 years, several epidemiological studies, including longitudinal surveys, have disclosed that MS incidence and prevalence in Italy mainland and Islands (Sardinia and Sicily) have progressively increased, picturing a semi-parabolic curve. Based on the comprehensive scrutiny of 58 papers, we conclude that the latitude risk gradient does not fit to the Italian map of MS. The genetic heterogeneity of the Italian ethnicities, that likely forms the basis of MS predisposition, does not account for the dramatic increase of MS incidence and prevalence observed in Italy over the last half century that, rather, seems better explained by the effect of environmental factors.

Current review and next steps for artificial intelligence in multiple sclerosis risk research

In the last few decades, the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory disease of the nervous system, has increased, particularly in Northern European countries, the United States, and United Kingdom. The promise of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) as tools to address problems in MS research has attracted increasing interest in these methods. Bayesian networks offer a clear advantage since they can integrate data and causal knowledge allowing for visualizing interactions between dependent variables and potential confounding factors. A review of AI/ML research methods applied to MS found 216 papers using terms "Multiple Sclerosis", "machine learning", "artificial intelligence", "Bayes", and "Bayesian", of which 90 were relevant and recently published. More than half of these involve the detection and segmentation of MS lesions for quantitative analysis; however clinical and lifestyle risk factor assessment and prediction have largely been ignored. Of those that address risk factors, most provide only association studies for some factors and often fail to include the potential impact of confounding factors and bias (especially where these have causal explanations) that could affect data interpretation, such as reporting quality and medical care access in various countries. To address these gaps in the literature, we propose a causal Bayesian network approach to assessing risk factors for MS, which can address deficiencies in current epidemiological methods of producing risk measurements and makes better use of observational data.

Differential Expression of HERV-W in Peripheral Blood in Multiple Sclerosis and Healthy Patients in Two Different Ethnic Groups

Overexpression of the Human endogenous retrovirus W (HERV-W) group of inherited retroviruses has been consistently linked with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). However most of the studies on this link have focused on European genetic groups with a very high risk of MS and it is not clear that this relationship holds for all ethnic groups. This study examined via qPCR the RNA expression in peripheral blood of HERV-W (the multiple sclerosis associated retrovirus variant MSRV) of MS patients and healthy controls from two ethnic groups with very different risk rates of MS. Population one was derived from the UK with a Northern European genetic background and an MS risk rate of 108/100,000, population two was derived from the republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation, with a mixed Russian (Eastern European) and Tartar (Turkic or Volga/Urals) population with an MS risk rate of 21-31/100,000. The Russian population displayed a significantly higher basal level of expression of MSRV in both healthy and MS individuals when compared to the British control population with a trend in the Russian population towards higher expression levels in MS patients than healthy patients.

Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Sardinia: A systematic cross-sectional multi-source survey

Background:

Partial surveys in sub-regions of Sardinia have suggested a high prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) on the island, relative to other Mediterranean populations. We assessed the island-wide prevalence of MS and its detailed distribution in Sardinia.

Methods:

The study population consisted of 5677 MS patients, 1735 men and 3942 women, living in Sardinia. Neurologists retrospectively examined electronic and paper-based records of patients with a diagnosis of MS. The data were then linked to the administrative health information systems. Crude, age-, and sex-specific prevalence estimates of disease were calculated.

Results:

The overall age-adjusted MS prevalence was 330 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 321–338) in individuals older than 15 years, 447 in women (95% CI 433–461), and 205 in men (95% CI 195–214). The prevalence was highest in the Ogliastra and Nuoro districts, respectively, 425 (95% CI 372–478) and 419 (95% CI 387–451), and lowest in the Olbia-Tempio district, 217 (95% CI 195–239). Most cases had relapsing–remitting MS (79.3%), 16.3% had secondary-progressive MS, and 4.4% had primary-progressive MS.

Conclusion:

These prevalence are among the highest reported so far worldwide. They provide estimates for comparative analyses in other populations and are essential for public health interventions.

An 'epidemic' of multiple sclerosis and falling infection rates? Reflecting on comparisons made and the rising multiple sclerosis incidence in Bach's 2002 New England Journal of Medicine figure

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We set out to revisit and comment on the evidence surrounding a popular figure published in the New England Journal of Medicine (2002), which suggests that the incidence of immune-mediated diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS), is increased by reduced exposure to infections.

METHODS

Commentary.

RESULTS

We found that, to date (May 2017), this influential article has been cited >2000 times. However, on close investigation of the figure, we noticed some problems. Specifically, we observed several challenges inherent in using ecological data from disparate studies and countries to make conclusions surrounding the temporal patterns and relationships between diseases. For example, the figure depicts incidence data for MS based solely on a limited group of individuals with MS (n = 637; 455 women and 182 men) living within the region of Sassari on the island of Sardinia, known for its unique genealogy and risk of MS. However, the infectious-related data were based primarily on large population studies from the USA, with one derived from army recruits in France.

CONCLUSIONS

We encourage the scientific community to apply rigorous, consistent methods in order to confirm or refute whether a strong, direct relationship does or does not exist between the incidence of MS and infectious diseases. Further, our article highlights a major knowledge gap that would benefit from a thorough review of the temporal trends related to MS incidence. Collation of this wide body of knowledge may provide a balanced understanding of this important topic and would best serve the progress of MS research.

The association between human endogenous retroviruses and multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The interaction between genetic and environmental factors is crucial to multiple sclerosis (MS) pathogenesis. Human Endogenous Retroviruses (HERVs) are endogenous viral elements of the human genome whose expression is associated with MS.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis and to assess qualitative and quantitative evidence on the expression of HERV families in MS patients.

METHODS

Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched for published studies on the association of HERVs and MS. Meta-analysis was performed on the HERV-W family. Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for association.

RESULTS

43 reports were extracted (25 related to HERV-W, 13 to HERV-H, 9 to HERV-K, 5 to HRES-1 and 1 to HER-15 family). The analysis showed an association between expression of all HERV families and MS. For HERV-W, adequate data was available for meta-analysis. Results from meta-analyses of HERV-W were OR = 22.66 (95%CI 6.32 to 81.20) from 4 studies investigating MSRV/HERV-W (MS-associated retrovirus) envelope mRNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, OR = 44.11 (95%CI 12.95 to 150.30) from 6 studies of MSRV/HERV-W polymerase mRNA in serum/plasma and OR = 6.00 (95%CI 3.35 to 10.74) from 4 studies of MSRV/HERV-W polymerase mRNA in CSF.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review and meta-analysis shows an association between expression of HERVs, and in particular the HERV-W family, and MS.

Latitude and HLA-DRB1*04:05 independently influence disease severity in Japanese multiple sclerosis: a cross-sectional study

Background

Higher latitude and human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1*04:05 increase susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) in the Japanese population, but their effects on disease severity are unknown. We aimed to clarify the effects of latitude and the HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DPB1 genes on disease severity in Japanese patients with MS.

Methods

We enrolled 247 MS patients and 159 healthy controls (HCs) from the northernmost main island of Japan, Hokkaido Island (42–45° north), and 187 MS patients and 235 HCs from the southern half (33–35° north) of the Japanese archipelago (33–45° north). We genotyped HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DPB1 alleles, compared demographic features, and analyzed factors contributing to differences in clinical and laboratory findings between MS patients from southern and northern Japan. The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), which adjusts the Kurtzke’s Expanded Disability Status Scale score according to disease duration, was used to estimate disease severity.

Results

The HLA-DRB1*04:05 and DRB1*15:01 alleles conferred susceptibility to MS in our Japanese population (p^corr = 0.0004 and p^corr = 0.0019, respectively). Southern patients had higher MSSS scores than northern patients (p = 0.003). Northern patients had higher frequencies of brain lesions meeting the Barkhof criteria (Barkhof brain lesions) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) IgG abnormalities than southern patients (p = 0.0012 and p < 0.0001, respectively). DRB1*04:05-positive MS patients had lower MSSS scores and lower frequencies of Barkhof brain lesions and CSF IgG abnormalities than DRB1*04:05-negative MS patients (p = 0.0415, p = 0.0026, and p < 0.0001, respectively). Multivariate analyses revealed that latitude and DRB1*04:05 were independently associated with the lowest quartile of MSSS and that latitude was positively associated with Barkhof brain lesions and CSF IgG abnormalities. DRB1*04:05 was negatively associated with these parameters. MSSS was decreased by 0.57 per DRB1*04:05 allele (p = 0.0198).

Conclusions

Living at a higher latitude and carrying the DRB1*04:05 allele independently lessens MS symptom severity as defined by MSSS. However, these factors influence the frequency of Barkhof brain lesions and CSF IgG abnormalities in opposite ways; higher latitude increases the frequency of Barkhof brain lesions and CSF IgG abnormalities, whereas DRB1*04:05 decreases them.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12974-016-0695-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Epidemiology of Multiple Sclerosis

The epidemiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) includes a consideration of genetic and environmental factors. Comparative studies of different populations have revealed prevalence and incidence rates that vary with geography and ethnicity. With a prevalence ranging from 2 per 100,000 in Japan to greater than 100 per 100,000 in Northern Europe and North America, the burden of MS is similarly unevenly influenced by longevity and comorbid disorders. Well-powered genome-wide association studies have investigated the genetic substrate of MS, providing insight into autoimmune mechanisms involved in the etiopathogenesis of MS and elucidating possible avenues of biological treatment.

Risk factors in multiple sclerosis: a population-based case-control study in Sicily. Background and methods

Incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) has steeply increased over time during the last 30 years in the city of Catania. We carried out a population-based case-control study to evaluate the possible role of both environmental and genetic factors. From 1975 to 2004 in Catania, 367 MS patients diagnosed according to the Poser's criteria had the onset of disease. A sample of MS patients was randomly selected from this incident cohort. Three controls matched by age and sex were randomly selected from the rosters of 14 GPs. Controls were proportionally selected according to the distribution by municipality of the target population using a multistage sampling methods. All cases and controls underwent a face-to-face interview to record information concerning environmental factors and a blood sample was taken for serological and genetic analysis. 164 MS patients (64 % women; mean age of 46.4 ± 10.7) and 481 controls (69 % women; mean age of 47.7 ± 14.8) were enrolled in the study. The distribution of the whole population and the selected controls by municipalities was similar. A blood sample was taken from 150 MS cases and from 337 controls. At the end of the enrolment, we obtained a representative sample of the MS cases and population controls avoiding possible selection bias. Participation rate was very high also concerning the collection of biological specimens.

Immunological heterogeneity of multiple sclerosis in Sardinia and Sweden

Subjects from Sardinia, Italy, are relatively homogeneous compared to Swedes. Although ethnically distant, both populations have similarly high multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence rates. Pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and their receptors, signalling molecules and other immune response-associated factors might influence MS pathogenesis, though definite proof is missing. The study of populations with similar MS incidence but different genetic and environmental background could make possible the definition of factors that relate to such background differences. We selected untreated female MS patients from Sassari, Sardinia, and Stockholm, Sweden, and corresponding sexand age-matched healthy controls (HC), to study blood mononuclear cells (MNC) for mRNA expression of 20 immune response-related genes considered relevant in MS, employing real-time PCR. Higher expression of IL-12p40 mRNA was confined to MS from both Sassari and Stockholm, compared to corresponding HC. MS patients from Sassari, but not Stockholm, expressed higher TNF-a compared to corresponding HC. MS patients from Stockholm, but not Sassari, expressed higher IL-6. Indoleamine 2,3 dioxygenase (IDO), a molecule necessary in tolerance induction, was lower in MS from Stockholm compared to corresponding HC. This was not observed in Sassari. No differences were detected for other members of the IL-12 family, other Th1 and Th2 cytokines, and the signalling molecules Stat 4 and 6. The results corroborate a pro-inflammatory state in MS as reflected by high expression of IL-12, TNF-a and IL-6, although the extent of expression of TNF-a, IL-6 and IDO differs between strictly matched MS patients from different high-incidence areas. This might result from genetic and/or environmental differences. They may account for some of the discrepancies regarding immune response-related molecules previously reported in MS. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory state exists in MS patients from Sassari as well as Stockholm. The changes of pro-inflammatory and other immune response-related variables differ however between the two MS populations. This may be attributed to the genetic and/or environmental background.

The human environment and the vitamin D compromise: Scotland as a case study in human biocultural adaptation and disease susceptibility

Year-round human habitation of environments with highly seasonal regimes of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) depended on adaptive complexes of biological and cultural traits to ensure adequacy of vitamin D. Perturbations of such adaptive complexes resulting from changes in the physical environment, human behavior and culture, or both have had unexpected and untoward consequences for health. Scotland is an excellent case study of the changing nature of human biocultural adaptation to low-UVB environments. Occupation of Scotland after the last Pleistocene glaciation event about 14,000 YBP was made possible by maximally depigmented skin, which facilitated cutaneous biosynthesis of vitamin D3, and by a diet that emphasized foods rich in vitamin D. Changes in human subsistence and diet began with the introduction of agriculture and grazing about 5,000 YBP and accelerated greatly in the last 200 years through industrialization and urbanization. The resulting changes in domiciles, patterns of daily activity and behavior, and diet have led to reduced exposure to UVB and reduced consumption of vitamin D-rich foods. This has perturbed the "vitamin D compromise," an adaptive complex established in Scotland during the Mesolithic and Neolithic. We describe the UVB environment of Scotland from remotely sensed data and combine these data with information from the archaeological record to describe the vitamin D compromise in Scotland. Changes in human exposure to UVB and vitamin D consumption, which occurred as the result of urbanization and the dietary shift away from the consumption of oily fish, are traced. Vitamin D deficiency contributes to increased disease prevalence in Scotland, including that of the autoimmune disease multiple sclerosis, a debilitating neurodegenerative disease caused by demyelination of the central nervous system. These conditions have created an "imperfect storm" of poor health that should command the attention of public health experts and policy makers.

Incidence and Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in Newfoundland and Labrador

Background:

The incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) had been reported in 1984 and was considered to be relatively low at that time. This study revisits the incidence and prevalence of MS in NL for the year 2001.

Methods:

Case searches through patient files of neurologists in NL were conducted. A complete list of patients billed for MS in NL between 1996 and 2003 was obtained and all cases were confirmed via chart review.

Results:

There were 493 living MS patients yielding a prevalence of 94.4/100,000 which is significantly higher than previously reported. Of the living patients, 330 had relapsing remitting (RRMS), 94 had secondary progressive, 66 had primary progressive (PPMS) and three had unspecified MS. The total female to male ratio was 2.7:1. There was no difference between the female to male ratios for RRMS vs PPMS. Patients with PPMS had a later onset compared to RRMS (p<0.00001). Yearly incidences were relatively constant from 1994 to 2001 (5.6/100,000). Significant delays between first symptoms and final diagnosis were common and the delay time has not changed over the past 15 years. A prevalence of 88.9/100,000 was estimated from survival and incidence trends and was not significantly different than the measured prevalence (p=0.38).

Conclusion:

The increase in incidence and prevalence are accounted for through both better access to diagnostic facilities and more practicing neurologists. The revised prevalence and incidence are more in keeping with recently reported values throughout Canada.

Conclusion:

L’augmentation de l’incidence et de la prÉvalence se justifient par une plus grande accessibilitÉ aux moyens diagnostiques et par la prÉsence d’un plus grand nombre de neurologues. La prÉvalence et l’incidence que nous rapportons sont plus conformes à celles rapportÉes rÉcemment à travers le Canada.

Gender-related protection from or vulnerability to severe CNS diseases: gonado-structural and/or gonado-activational? A meta-analysis of relevant epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

A vast scientific literature has dealt with gender-specific risk for brain disorder. That field is evolving toward a consensus to the effect that the estrogen hormone family is outstandingly and uniquely neuroprotective. However, the epidemiology relevant to this general outlook remains piecemeal.

METHOD

The present investigation strategically formats the relevant epidemiological findings around the world in order to quantitatively meta-analyze gender ratio of risk for a variety of relevant severe central nervous system (CNS) diseases at all three gonadal stages of the life cycle, pre pubertal, post adolescent/pre menopausal, and post menopausal.

RESULTS

The data quantitatively establish that (1) no single epidemiological study should be cited as evidence of gender-specific neuroprotection against the most common severe CNS diseases because the gender-specific risk ratios are contradictory from one study to the other; (2) risk for severe CNS disease is indeed significantly gender-specific, but either gender can be protected: it depends on the disease, not at all on the age bracket.

CONCLUSION

Our assay of gender-specific risk for severe brain disease around the world has not been able to support the idea according to which any one gender-prevalent gonadal steroid hormone dominates as a neuroprotective agent at natural concentrations.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study.

RESULTS

There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the breadth of the literature on the epidemiology of MS in Europe, inter-study comparisons are hampered by the lack of standardization. Further research should focus on regions not yet studied and the evaluation of ethnic differences in MS prevalence and incidence. National-level studies using current diagnostic criteria, validated case definitions and similar age- and sex-standardization would allow better geographical comparisons.

Infodemiology and infoveillance of multiple sclerosis in Italy

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic debilitating disease of probable autoimmune inflammatory nature, whose aetiology is not fully understood, despite the many efforts and investigations. In this manuscript, we review the concept of “Multiple Sclerosis 2.0”, that is to say the Internet usage by MS patients, for seeking health and disease-related material for self-care and self-management purposes, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring MS-related Google queries and searches, called MS infodemiology and infoveillance. Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of neurological disorders.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

Background

A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses.

Results

The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000.

Conclusions

We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area.

Geomagnetic disturbances may be environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis: an ecological study of 111 locations in 24 countries

BACKGROUND

We noticed that a hypothesis based on the effect of geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) has the ability to explain special features of multiple sclerosis (MS). Areas around geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (GM60L) experience the greatest amount of GMD. The easiest way to evaluate our hypothesis was to test the association of MS prevalence (MSP) with angular distance to geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (AMAG60) and compare it with the known association of MS with geographical latitude (GL). We did the same with angular distance to geographic 60 degree latitude (AGRAPH60) as a control.

METHODS

English written papers with MSP keywords, done in Europe (EUR), North America (NA) or Australasia (AUS) were retrieved from the PubMed. Geomagnetic coordinates were determined for each location and AMAG60 was calculated as absolute value of numerical difference between its geomagnetic latitude from GM60L. By an ecological study with using meta-regression analyses, the relationship of MSP with GL, AMAG60 and AGRAPH60 were evaluated separately. MSP data were weighted by square root of number of prevalent cases. Models were compared by their adjusted R square (AR2) and standard error of estimate (SEE).

RESULTS

111 MSP data were entered in the study. In each continent, AMAG60 had the best correlation with MSP, the largest AR2 (0.47, 0.42 and 0.84 for EUR, NA and AUS, respectively) and the least SEE. Merging both hemispheres data, AMAG60 explained 56% of MSP variations with the least SEE (R = 0.75, AR2 = 0.56, SEE = 57), while GL explained 17% (R = 0.41, AR2 = 0.17, SEE = 78.5) and AGRAPH60 explained 12% of that variations with the highest SEE (R = 0.35, AR2 = 0.12, SEE = 80.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed that AMAG60 is the best describer of MSP variations and has the strongest association with MSP distribution. They clarified that the well-known latitudinal gradient of MSP may be actually a gradient related to GM60L. Moreover, the location of GM60L can elucidate why MSP has parabolic and linear gradient in the north and south hemisphere, respectively. This preliminary evaluation supported that GMD can be the mysterious environmental risk factor for MS. We believe that this hypothesis deserves to be considered for further validation studies.

The Ifng gene is essential for Vdr gene expression and vitamin D₃-mediated reduction of the pathogenic T cell burden in the central nervous system in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, a multiple sclerosis model

Compelling evidence suggests that vitamin D3 insufficiency may contribute causally to multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. Experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) research firmly supports this hypothesis. Vitamin D3 supports 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25-[OH]2D3) synthesis in the CNS, initiating biological processes that reduce pathogenic CD4+ T cell longevity. MS is prevalent in Sardinia despite high ambient UV irradiation, challenging the vitamin D-MS hypothesis. Sardinian MS patients frequently carry a low Ifng expresser allele, suggesting that inadequate IFN-γ may undermine vitamin D3-mediated inhibition of demyelinating disease. Testing this hypothesis, we found vitamin D3 failed to inhibit EAE in female Ifng knockout (GKO) mice, unlike wild-type mice. The two strains did not differ in Cyp27b1 and Cyp24a1 gene expression, implying equivalent vitamin D3 metabolism in the CNS. The 1,25-(OH)2D3 inhibited EAE in both strains, but 2-fold more 1,25-(OH)2D3 was needed in GKO mice, causing hypercalcemic toxicity. Unexpectedly, GKO mice had very low Vdr gene expression in the CNS. Injecting IFN-γ intracranially into adult mice did not increase Vdr gene expression. Correlating with low Vdr expression, GKO mice had more numerous pathogenic Th1 and Th17 cells in the CNS, and 1,25-(OH)2D3 reduced these cells in GKO and wild-type mice without altering Foxp3+ regulatory T cells. Thus, the Ifng gene was needed for CNS Vdr gene expression and vitamin D3-dependent mechanisms that inhibit EAE. Individuals with inadequate Ifng expression may have increased MS risk despite high ambient UV irradiation because of low Vdr gene expression and a high encephalitogenic T cell burden in the CNS.

Multiple sclerosis prevalence in Malaga, Southern Spain estimated by the capture–recapture method

Background: Although not definitively proven, there is commonly accepted to be a latitudinal gradient in the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS), which is more frequent in temperate zones. The European Mediterranean countries are situated in a zone of median frequency, although ever increasing figures have been noted in the last decades.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the current prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain.

Methods: The capture–recapture method (CRM) uses independent sources of data and permits the number of non-registered cases of a given disease to be estimated, and by doing so, to avoid ascertainment bias.

Results: Use of this method showed the estimated prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain, to be 125/105 (95% confidence interval: 102/105–169/105), higher than the figures published previously.

Conclusions: Although we recognize that these data need to be confirmed in further studies and in other areas of the country using a similar method, we believe this study is the first to find such high figure of prevalence, being very similar to the figures reported in recent years in other southern European countries.

Multiple sclerosis in Italy: cost-of-illness study

This study estimates the direct costs of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Italy from the perspective of the National Health System. Patients diagnosed with MS for ≥1 year prior to study entry were included in the analysis; neurological disability was assessed using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Cost variables were analyzed according to: MS phenotype, disease course over the previous year and EDSS rating. A total of 510 patients were included in the analysis. Overall costs were significantly higher for relapsing-remitting MS and secondary progressive MS than for primary progressive MS (P < 0.05). Costs were higher for EDSS scores 0.0-3.5 and 4.0-6.0 than for scores > 6.0 (P < 0.05). The extrapolated data gave an estimated annual direct cost of MS per patient of <euro>18,030. In conclusion, relapsing-remitting MS or secondary progressive MS phenotypes and lower estimated EDSS scores appear to be associated with higher costs.

Gender issues in multiple sclerosis: an update

Although multiple sclerosis (MS) affects both women and men, women are more susceptible to MS than men. Accumulating evidence indicates that the incidence and prevalence of MS is increasing, more so in women than in men. Owing to pregnancy, differing hormonal states and distinct social roles, the impact of MS differs between women and men. Since Patricia K Coyle published a review on gender issues in MS, multiple studies have added to the body of knowledge. This update will summarize the current thinking on gender-related issues in MS and we will address incidence and prevalence, hormonal factors, pregnancy and breastfeeding, genetics, course and prognosis, imaging, treatment and psychosocial aspects. Future progression within this field will help elucidate the cause of and define the treatment of MS.

The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology

The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS.

Factors associated with delay to medical recognition in two Canadian multiple sclerosis cohorts

Long referral and diagnostic delays can impact both the opportunity for early therapeutic intervention and estimates of MS incidence and prevalence. We investigated factors associated with diagnostic or referral delays within two geographically distinct MS Canadian cohorts and the association between referral delay and disability at first clinic visit. Adult-onset MS patients were selected from the population-based British Columbian MS (BCMS) (n=5705) and the clinic-based Hôpital Notre-Dame, Quebec (CHUM) (n=1489) databases. Referral delay (BCMS) and diagnostic delay (CHUM) were examined by sex, onset age, disease course (primary progressive (PPMS) vs. relapsing at onset), onset symptoms (BCMS only) and year of first clinic visit/diagnosis. Cohorts were analyzed separately by stratified analyses and multivariable linear modeling. The relationship between referral delay and initial disability was examined by multiple ordinal regression in the BCMS cohort. Younger at onset patients or those with PPMS exhibited significantly longer delays (p<0.001). Delays decreased over the 20+ year period, but reductions varied by clinical course, onset age and sex. Long referral delays were associated with greater disability at first clinic visit (p<0.001). If early intervention at mild disability levels is warranted in MS, then the extended delays to medical recognition for young adult-onset and PPMS patients must be addressed.

European Charcot Foundation Lecture: the natural history of multiple sclerosis and gender

The role of gender in the natural history of multiple sclerosis (MS) is multi-faceted. Earliest debate on this topic was about the sex ratio (female:male) among affected individuals. It was only clearly shown within the last 4 decades that females are more often affected. The sex ratio continues to intrigue researchers. An observed increase in the sex ratio among more recently born MS patients has now been taken as a clear indication that the rate of MS is truly increasing in many geographical areas. This temporal increase in females has been relatively rapid, implicating environmental rather than genetic risk factors. Gender issues in MS expand beyond the scope of sex ratio. Gender has an impact on various aspects of MS, including age of onset, "parent-of-origin" effects (seen in half-siblings, twin sibships, avuncular pairs, transmission of HLA haplotype), recurrence risks for relatives of MS patients and the topic of reproduction when one parent has MS. Gender issues can also confound data collection and analyses with respect to studies on comorbidity, risk factors and family history. In fact, it has now been clearly validated and quantified that among persons with MS, there is a sex-specificity of recall and reporting bias as well a greater female awareness of medical history.

Estrogen controls vitamin D3-mediated resistance to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis by controlling vitamin D3 metabolism and receptor expression

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune, neurodegenerative disease with a rapidly increasing female gender bias. MS prevalence decreases with increasing sunlight exposure, supporting our hypothesis that the sunlight-dependent hormone 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3) (1,25-(OH)(2)D(3)) is a natural inhibitor of autoimmune T cell responses in MS. We found that vitamin D(3) inhibited experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) in intact female mice, but not in ovariectomized females or males. To learn whether 17beta-estradiol (E(2)) is essential for vitamin D(3)-mediated protection, ovariectomized female mice were given E(2) or placebo and evaluated for vitamin D(3)-mediated EAE resistance. Diestrus-level E(2) implants alone provided no benefit, but they restored vitamin D(3)-mediated EAE resistance in the ovariectomized females. Synergy between E(2) and vitamin D(3) occurred through vitamin D(3)-mediated enhancement of E(2) synthesis, as well as E(2)-mediated enhancement of vitamin D receptor expression in the inflamed CNS. In males, E(2) implants did not enable vitamin D(3) to inhibit EAE. The finding that vitamin D(3)-mediated protection in EAE is female-specific and E(2)-dependent suggests that declining vitamin D(3) supplies due to sun avoidance might be contributing to the rapidly increasing female gender bias in MS. Moreover, declining E(2) synthesis and vitamin D(3)-mediated protection with increasing age might be contributing to MS disease progression in older women.

Multiple sclerosis risk: interaction between human leukocyte antigen and the environment in Sardinian population

Background

The island of Sardinia features a high incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) characterized by early age at onset and a progressively increasing trend. The current study was aimed at examining variations in human leukocyte antigen–risk genotypes occurring over time in a cohort of patients.

Methods

Susceptible and neutral DRB1-DQB1 genotypes were identified in 1660 patients. Age at onset was established in 1436 patients divided into two cohorts, an older cohort (subjects born before 1949, N = 233) and a younger one (subjects born from 1960 to 1989, N = 850). Patients from the older cohort were randomly assigned to patients of the same sex from the younger cohort, matched for age at onset. The final sample included 170 pairs. Logistic conditional analysis was performed to determine the probability of a neutral genotype in both cohorts. Kaplan–Meier analysis was applied to ascertain the influence of predisposing and neutral genotypes in age at onset for both cohorts.

Findings

The probability of carrying a neutral genotype was 1.76-fold higher in the younger than in the older cohort ( P = 0.02) and 3.67-fold higher in men ( P = 0.005). Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed an earlier age at onset in patients of the young cohort carrying the predisposing genotype ( P = 0.004).

Interpretation

In the Sardinian population, an environment more prone and propitious to autoimmunity may contribute toward the rising incidence of MS or anticipate overt manifestation of the disease in genetically predisposed subjects.

Temporal trends in the incidence of multiple sclerosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has been traditionally considered to be more frequent in women and in regions more distant from the equator. However, recent reports suggest that the latitude gradient could be disappearing and that the female-to-male ratio among patients with MS has increased in the last decades. We have conducted a systematic review of incidence studies of MS to assess the overall incidence of MS and explore possible changes in the latitude gradient and the female-to-male ratio over time.

METHODS

Systematic review of incidence studies of MS published in Medline between 1966 and February 2007. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were collected from eligible publications. We computed age-adjusted rates using the world population as standard, and assessed differences in rates according to latitude and period of case ascertainment. Additionally, we evaluated the association between period of case ascertainment and the female-to-male ratio.

RESULTS

The overall incidence rate of MS was 3.6 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 3.0, 4.2) in women and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.4) in men. Higher latitude was associated with higher MS incidence, though this latitude gradient was attenuated after 1980, apparently due to increased incidence of MS in lower latitudes. The female-to-male ratio in MS incidence increased over time, from an estimated 1.4 in 1955 to 2.3 in 2000.

CONCLUSION

The latitude gradient present in older incidence studies of multiple sclerosis (MS) is decreasing. The female-to-male MS ratio has increased in the last five decades.

Hygiene hypothesis: Innate immunity, malaria and multiple sclerosis

The establishment of new hygienic conditions plays a role in the appearance of autoimmunity in "westernalised" countries. Consistently, but still unconvincingly, several epidemiological and immunogenetic evidences link the disappearance of malaria with the increase of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Sardinia, insular Italy. To this purpose, we have made an attempt to build a relationship between malaria disappearance and MS under the light of the hygiene hypothesis. This relationship has taken into account the MS frequency increase soon after malaria eradication in Sardinia, the present malaria endemism in Africa, the innate immune system activity here represented by Chitotriosidase (Chit), an hydrolytic enzyme produced by macrophages, and an unproductive polymorphism of Chit gene (CHIT1) as a measure of the genetic weight of Plasmodium-related immunity in these populations. Data were derived from both experimental results specifically designed for this study and other data obtained from the available literature. The experimental and the hystorical-epidemiological findings concur to indicate that whilst in Africa CHIT1 mutation is rare and MS incidence is very low due to unmodified parasitic influence and hygienic conditions, in Sardinia a relationships between CHIT1 mutation, plasma Chit activity and MS prevalence rate is detected, even to a higher extent compared to Sicily, area at former lower rate of malaria endemy. Upon such a basis, we have found convincing argumentations that, at least in part, MS has increased over the last four decades in Sardinia also because of the eradication of malaria, 50 years ago. This infectious disease that run for centuries in Sardinia, besides well documented enzyme deficiencies and red cell pathologies, have left an abnormal macrophage reactivity against Plasmodium falciparum. As a result, some Sardinian individuals secrete abnormally high levels of mediators of the innate immunity, relics of former protective anti-malaria infection, in response to new environmental factors. Therefore, MS, an immune-conditioned pathology of the central nervous system has been subject to an unexplained epidemiological increase in the last few decades in Sardinia because cells of the innate immune system, immuno-genetically selected over the centuries in response to widespread P. falciparum malaria, have kept the tendency to over-respond to triggering factors even after the disappearance of malaria. This hypothesis may have an influence in re-directing clinicians toward a innate immunity-based rather than an antigen specific-based new MS therapies.

Environmental risk factors for multiple sclerosis. Part II: Noninfectious factors

As discussed in Part I of this review, the geographic distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) and the change in risk among migrants provide compelling evidence for the existence of strong environmental determinants of MS, where "environmental" is broadly defined to include differences in diet and other behaviors. As we did for infections, we focus here primarily on those factors that may contribute to explain the geographic variations in MS prevalence and the change in risk among migrants. Among these, sunlight exposure emerges as being the most likely candidate. Because the effects of sun exposure may be mediated by vitamin D, we also examine the evidence linking vitamin D intake or status to MS risk. Furthermore, we review the evidence on cigarette smoking, which cannot explain the geographic variations in MS risk, but may contribute to the recently reported increases in the female/male ratio in MS incidence. Other proposed risk factors for MS are mentioned only briefly; although we recognize that some of these might be genuine, evidence is usually sparse and unpersuasive.

Increasing incidence of multiple sclerosis among women in Lorraine, Eastern France

This study aims to describe the prevalence and incidence rates of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Lorraine, France, and its secular trend from 1990 to 2002. Cases were sourced from the regional network of MS healthcare workers in the Lorraine region and include all cases with definite or probable MS according to Poser's criteria. We identified 2718 patients with MS on 31 December 2004. The prevalence rate was 120/100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 119-121). Between 1990 and 2002, the average age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence rate was 5.5/100,000 (95% CI: 4.4-6.6). During this same period, there was a significant increase in overall incidence in women but not in men. The mean age at MS onset, disability score five years after onset, number of relapses during the first five years, and proportion of first attack with sequelae or polysymptomatic symptoms were not significantly different between each annual cohort during the study period. The prevalence and incidence rates of MS we found in our study were higher than in previous studies in France. The increase in incidence of MS between 1990 and 2002, mostly in women, was not related to better ascertainment of patients with mild disability.

Données épidémiologiques et analyse de‘l’offre de soins de la sclérose en plaques en France

STATE OF THE ART

According to the available previous studies, France is considered a zone of medium to high risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) with an estimated overall prevalence of at least 50/100,000 inhabitants, incidence rates were stable in some areas but increased over time in others and a strong ethnic effect on the incidence, clinical presentation, and course of MS is reported.

RESULTS

Based on two health insurance survey the prevalence has been deduced. At January 1, 2003 from the data of agricultural health insurance the prevalence is evaluated at 65.5/100,000 inhabitants (95p.cent CI=62.5-67.5) with a gradient of North East towards South-West. The data from the national health insurance were very near. During the period 2000-2004, recent studies in Auvergne and Brittany demonstrated an annual incidence comprising between 4.2 and 5.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. In Lorraine, in a large population-based study, in December 31, 2004 the prevalence rate was 120/100,000 (95p.cent CI: 119 to 121). During the period 1990-2002, the average age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence rate was 5.5/100,000 (95p.cent CI: 4.4-6.6). In Lorraine, we found that the age-adjusted incidence rate increased during the period 1990-2002. The incidence of MS in women increased, whereas that in men did not change significantly during this period. Similarly, in Norway, North Ireland and Denmark, the incidence among women increased the most. The clinical features of MS were compared in 211 North Africans patients and 2 945 Europeans patients in two French MS centres (Lorraine and Nice) with definite MS according to McDonald's criteria. The course of MS appears more aggressive in North Africans than in Europeans patients. For example, we demonstrated a shorter time to reach the Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 4.0 (p=0.001) or 6.0 (p<0.0001) in North Africans patients.

PERSPECTIVES AND CONCLUSIONS

The incidence rates found in these studies were comparable to those reported in several European populations. This undoubtedly places France in the category of regions with a high risk zone of MS. The incidence of MS in women increased; thus, exogenous (or epigenetic) factors vary over time and may affect men and women differently. The course of MS appears more aggressive in North Africans than in Europeans patients.

Variation of the myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein gene is not primarily associated with multiple sclerosis in the Sardinian population

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is consistently associated with particular HLA-DRB1-DQB1 haplotypes. However, existing evidence suggests that variation at these loci does not entirely explain association of the HLA region with the disease. The MOG locus is a prime positional and functional candidate for such additional predisposing effects but the analysis is complicated by the strong, albeit labyrinthine pattern of linkage disequilibrium in the region. Here we have assessed the association of MOG variation with MS in the Sardinian population to see if it represents an independent contributor to MS predisposition.

RESULTS

After re-sequencing the MOG gene in 21 healthy parents of MS patients we detected 134 variants, 33 of which were novel. A set of 40 informative SNPs was then selected and assessed for disease association together with 1 intragenic microsatellite in an initial data set of 239 MS families. This microsatellite and 11 SNPs were found to be positively associated with MS, using the transmission disequilibrium test, and were followed up in an additional 158 families (total families analysed = 397). While in these 397 families, 8 markers showed significant association with MS, through conditional tests we determined that these MOG variants were not associated with MS independently of the main DRB1-DQB1 disease associations.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that variation within the MOG gene is not an important independent determinant of MS-inherited risk in the Sardinian population.

Immune tolerance and control of CNS autoimmunity: from animal models to MS patients

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease resulting in demyelination and axonal loss within the CNS. An autoimmune reaction directed against myelin antigens contributes to the disease process. As the CNS has long been considered an immune privileged site, how such an immune response can develop locally has remained enigmatic. Recent data, mostly based on the study of animal models for MS, have shown that the CNS is in fact more permissive to the development of immune responses than previously thought. This observation is counterbalanced by the fact that immune tolerance to myelin antigens can be induced outside the CNS. This review focuses on the mechanisms preventing CNS autoimmunity, which act in three separate tissues. In the thymus, expression of CNS autoantigens promotes partial protection, notably through elimination of autoreactive T cells. In the secondary lymphoid organs, the remaining autoreactive T cells are kept under control by the naturally occurring regulatory T cells of the CD4(+)Foxp3(+) phenotype. In the CNS, multiple mechanisms including the local activation of regulatory T cells further limit autoimmunity. A better understanding of the induction of regulatory T cells, of their mechanisms of action, and of approaches to manipulate them in vivo may offer new therapeutic opportunities for MS patients.