Nimbus 7 satellite measurements of the springtime Antarctic ozone decrease

NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0: Stratospheric Composition

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) provides recent estimates and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near-real time. To do this, the GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere (0.01 hPa). The GEOS-CF system is described, including updates made to the GEOS-Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS-CF for improved representation of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar, and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of ozone (O₃) and important nitrogen and chlorine species related to stratospheric O₃ recovery. The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric O₃ toward the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O₃ product; as a result the stratospheric O₃ in the GEOS-CF historical estimate agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS-CF O₃ forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP O₃ forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex GEOS-Chem UCX stratospheric chemistry. Overall, the spatial patterns of the GEOS-CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agree well with satellite observations. However, there are notable biases-such as low NO _x and HNO₃ in the polar regions and generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere-and future improvements to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS-CF is a new tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near-real-time three-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.

The influence of iodine on the Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole

The role of chlorine and bromine in Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion is well known. However, the contribution of iodine to the ozone hole chemistry has not been assessed, mainly due to the negligible amounts of iodine previously reported to enter the stratosphere. New measurements demonstrate that the injection of iodine to the lower stratosphere is higher than previously assumed. Based on these observations, our modeling work shows that iodine chemistry can enhance spring ozone loss at the lower part of the Antarctic ozone hole, and even dominate the halogen-mediated ozone loss during summer. Iodine can also alter, by several days, the timing of the seasonal formation and closure of the ozone hole.

The catalytic depletion of Antarctic stratospheric ozone is linked to anthropogenic emissions of chlorine and bromine. Despite its larger ozone-depleting efficiency, the contribution of ocean-emitted iodine to ozone hole chemistry has not been evaluated, due to the negligible iodine levels previously reported to reach the stratosphere. Based on the recently observed range (0.77 ± 0.1 parts per trillion by volume [pptv]) of stratospheric iodine injection, we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to assess the role of iodine in the formation and recent past evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole. Our 1980–2015 simulations indicate that iodine can significantly impact the lower part of the Antarctic ozone hole, contributing, on average, 10% of the lower stratospheric ozone loss during spring (up to 4.2% of the total stratospheric column). We find that the inclusion of iodine advances the beginning and delays the closure stages of the ozone hole by 3 d to 5 d, increasing its area and mass deficit by 11% and 20%, respectively. Despite being present in much smaller amounts, and due to faster gas-phase photochemical reactivation, iodine can dominate (∼73%) the halogen-mediated lower stratospheric ozone loss during summer and early fall, when the heterogeneous reactivation of inorganic chlorine and bromine reservoirs is reduced. The stratospheric ozone destruction caused by 0.77 pptv of iodine over Antarctica is equivalent to that of 3.1 (4.6) pptv of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons during spring (rest of sunlit period). The relative contribution of iodine to future stratospheric ozone loss is likely to increase as anthropogenic chlorine and bromine emissions decline following the Montreal Protocol.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Using a Novel Hybrid LSTM Data-Driven Model Based on Empirical Wavelet Transform Applied to Total Column of Ozone at Buenos Aires, Argentina (1966–2017)

Total column of ozone (TCO) time series analysis and accurate forecasting is of great significance in monitoring the status of the Chapman Mechanism in the stratosphere, which prevents harmful UV radiation from reaching the Earth’s surface. In this study, we performed a detailed time series analysis of the TCO data measured in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Moreover, hybrid data-driven forecasting models, based on long short-term memory networks (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs), are developed. We extracted the updated trend of the TCO time series by utilizing the singular spectrum analysis (SSA), empirical wavelet transform (EWT), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and Mann-Kendall. In general, the TCO has been stable since the mid-1990s. The trend analysis shows that there is a recovery of ozone during the period from 2010 to 2017, apart from the decline of ozone observed during 2015, which is presumably associated with the Calbuco volcanic event. The EWT trend method seems to have effective power for trend identification, compared with others. In this study, we developed a robust data-driven hybrid time series-forecasting model (named EWT-LSTM) for the TCO time series forecasting. Our model has the advantage of utilizing the EWT technique in the decomposition stage of the LSTM process. We compared our model with (1) an LSTM model that uses EMD, namely EMD-LSTM; (2) an LSTM model that uses wavelet denoising (WD) (WD-LSTM); (3) a wavelet denoising EWT-LSTM (WD-EWT-LSTM); and (4) a wavelet denoising noise-reducing sequence called EMD-LSTM (WD-EMD-LSTM). The model that uses the EWT decomposition process (EWT-LSTM) outperformed the other five models developed here in terms of various forecasting performance evaluation criteria, such as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient (R).

Atmospheric Spectroscopy and Photochemistry at Environmental Water Interfaces

The air-water interface is ubiquitous in nature, as manifested in the form of the surfaces of oceans, lakes, and atmospheric aerosols. The aerosol interface, in particular, can play a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry. The adsorption of atmospheric species onto and into aerosols modifies their concentrations and chemistries. Moreover, the aerosol phase allows otherwise unlikely solution-phase chemistry to occur in the atmosphere. The effect of the air-water interface on these processes is not entirely known. This review summarizes recent theoretical investigations of the interactions of atmosphere species with the air-water interface, including reactant adsorption, photochemistry, and the spectroscopy of reactants at the water surface, with an emphasis on understanding differences between interfacial chemistries and the chemistries in both bulk solution and the gas phase. The results discussed here enable an understanding of fundamental concepts that lead to potential air-water interface effects, providing a framework to understand the effects of water surfaces on our atmosphere.

A mobile differential absorption lidar for simultaneous observations of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone over Tibet

We developed a mobile ozone differential absorption lidar system to simultaneously measure the vertical profiles of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from an altitude of ~5 to 50 km. The system emits four laser beams at wavelength of 289 nm, 299 nm, 308 nm and 355 nm and receives their corresponding Mie/Rayleigh backscattering return signals, and two N₂ Raman return signals at 332 nm and 387 nm shifted from 308 nm and 355 nm, respectively. An assembled telescope array with four 1.25-m telescopes (effective diameter > 2 m) collects the Rayleigh and Raman backscattering signals at 308/332 and 355/387 nm. This system is currently deployed at the Yangbajing Observatory in Tibet (~4300 m elevation) and has begun observations in regular campaign mode since October 2017. The lidar results agree very well with those observed by the Aura/MLS satellite. This novel ozone lidar system operates at the highest elevation of any such system in the world. The higher elevation and larger receiver aperture of this system yield a higher signal-to-noise ratio and lower statistical uncertainty.

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

Measurement of solar UV radiation in Antarctica with collagen sheets

Collagen sheets were used in a unique evaluation method to examine skin damage caused by ultraviolet (UV) light of short wavelength during a season of the Antarctic ozone hole. The collagen sheets were exposed outdoors for 25 and 50 d, in the spring when the ozone hole was formed and in the ozone-hole-free autumn. Extracts from the exposed collagen sheets were analyzed for total protein and terminal amino acid concentrations as an index of collagen fragmentation. The results show that the amount of extractable collagen and terminal amino acid concentration in the spring exposure were approximately double and five times higher, respectively, when compared with those in the autumn exposure. During the ozone hole occurrence, the terminal amino acid concentration of the extracted collagen was about five times higher when exposure lasted 50 d from mid-September to the end of October compared to when exposure lasted 25 d from mid-September to early October. This result could be attributed to a limited amount of short-wavelength UV radiation reaching the ground surface as a result of the low height of the sun in September, when the ozone hole occurred. In fact, UV radiation measurements taken at Syowa Station indicate that short-wavelength UV radiation in the range 290-295 nm was not detected until approximately 1-2 months after the beginning of the ozone hole occurrence.

Free Radicals Within the Antarctic Vortex: The Role of CFCs in Antarctic Ozone Loss

How strong is the case linking global release of chlorofluorocarbons to episodic disappearance of ozone from the Antarctic stratosphere each austral spring? Three lines of evidence defining a link are (i) observed containment in the vortex of ClO concentrations two orders of magnitude greater than normal levels; (ii) in situ observations obtained during ten high-altitude aircraft flights into the vortex as the ozone hole was forming that show a decrease in ozone concentrations as ClO concentrations increased; and (iii) a comparison between observed ozone loss rates and those predicted with the use of absolute concentrations of ClO and BrO, the rate-limiting radicals in an array of proposed catalytic cycles. Recent advances in our understanding of the kinetics, photochemistry, and structural details of key intermediates in these catalytic cycles as well as an improved absolute calibration for ClO and BrO concentrations at the temperatures and pressures encountered in the lower antarctic stratosphere have been essential for defining the link.

Continuing worldwide increase in tropospheric methane, 1978 to 1987

The average worldwide tropospheric mixing ratio of methane has increased by 11% from 1.52 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in January 1978 to 1.684 ppmv in September 1987, for an increment of 0.016 +/- 0.001 ppmv per year. Within the limits of our measurements, the global tropospheric mixing ratio for methane over the past decade is consistent either with a linear growth rate of 0.016 +/- 0.001 ppmv per year or with a slight lessening of the rate of growth over the past 5 years. No indications were found of an effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-El Chichon events of 1982-83 on total global methane, although severe reductions were reported in the Pacific Northwest during that time period. The growth in tropospheric methane may have increased the water concentration in the stratosphere by as much as 28% since the 1940s and 45% over the past two centuries and thus could have increased the mass of precipitable water available for formation of polar stratospheric clouds.

Changes in stratospheric ozone

The ozone layer in the upper atmosphere is a natural feature of the earth's environment. It performs several important functions, including shielding the earth from damaging solar ultraviolet radiation. Far from being static, ozone concentrations rise and fall under the forces of photochemical production, catalytic chemical destruction, and fluid dynamical transport. Human activities are projected to deplete substantially stratospheric ozone through anthropogenic increases in the global concentrations of key atmospheric chemicals. Human-induced perturbations may be occurring already.

Remote sensing of particulate pollution from space: have we reached the promised land?

The recent literature on satellite remote sensing of air quality is reviewed. 2009 is the 50th anniversary of the first satellite atmospheric observations. For the first 40 of those years, atmospheric composition measurements, meteorology, and atmospheric structure and dynamics dominated the missions launched. Since 1995, 42 instruments relevant to air quality measurements have been put into orbit. Trace gases such as ozone, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, water, oxygen/tetraoxygen, bromine oxide, sulfur dioxide, formaldehyde, glyoxal, chlorine dioxide, chlorine monoxide, and nitrate radical have been measured in the stratosphere and troposphere in column measurements. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a focus of this review and a significant body of literature exists that shows that ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can be estimated from columnar AOD. Precision of the measurement of AOD is +/-20% and the prediction of PM2.5 from AOD is order +/-30% in the most careful studies. The air quality needs that can use such predictions are examined. Satellite measurements are important to event detection, transport and model prediction, and emission estimation. It is suggested that ground-based measurements, models, and satellite measurements should be viewed as a system, each component of which is necessary to better understand air quality.

Stratospheric ozone depletion

Solar ultraviolet radiation creates an ozone layer in the atmosphere which in turn completely absorbs the most energetic fraction of this radiation. This process both warms the air, creating the stratosphere between 15 and 50 km altitude, and protects the biological activities at the Earth's surface from this damaging radiation. In the last half-century, the chemical mechanisms operating within the ozone layer have been shown to include very efficient catalytic chain reactions involving the chemical species HO, HO2, NO, NO2, Cl and ClO. The NOX and ClOX chains involve the emission at Earth's surface of stable molecules in very low concentration (N2O, CCl2F2, CCl3F, etc.) which wander in the atmosphere for as long as a century before absorbing ultraviolet radiation and decomposing to create NO and Cl in the middle of the stratospheric ozone layer. The growing emissions of synthetic chlorofluorocarbon molecules cause a significant diminution in the ozone content of the stratosphere, with the result that more solar ultraviolet-B radiation (290-320 nm wavelength) reaches the surface. This ozone loss occurs in the temperate zone latitudes in all seasons, and especially drastically since the early 1980s in the south polar springtime-the 'Antarctic ozone hole'. The chemical reactions causing this ozone depletion are primarily based on atomic Cl and ClO, the product of its reaction with ozone. The further manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons has been banned by the 1992 revisions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol of the United Nations. Atmospheric measurements have confirmed that the Protocol has been very successful in reducing further emissions of these molecules. Recovery of the stratosphere to the ozone conditions of the 1950s will occur slowly over the rest of the twenty-first century because of the long lifetime of the precursor molecules.

Learning to see the invisible: discovery and measurement of ozone

Ozone is a key trace constituent of the atmosphere that is interesting for multiple reasons, including its ability to serve both as a screen against harmful solar radiation and as an aggressor against human health. However, methods for accurately detecting and measuring ozone were required before the behavior of ozone in the atmosphere and the effect of human activity on that behavior could be understood. This paper traces out the history of technologies and practices in ozone monitoring that have made this understanding possible, from nineteenth century chemical indicators to modern, laser-based detection technologies. Key insights include the importance of interactions between theorizing and observation in the process of scientific discovery, the importance of intercomparisons between different types of instruments, the way in which public policy concerns changed the pace and direction of ozone monitoring in the 1970s, and the importance of long-term environmental monitoring data to both improving our understanding of earth systems and protecting human health and the environment.

Impact of ozone mini-holes on the heterogeneous destruction of stratospheric ozone

A comprehensive study of ozone mini-holes over the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres is presented, based on model simulations with the coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM representing atmospheric conditions in 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2015. Ozone mini-holes are synoptic-scale regions of strongly reduced total ozone, directly associated with tropospheric weather systems. Mini-holes are supposed to have chemical and dynamical impacts on ozone levels. Since ozone levels over northern mid-latitudes show a negative trend of approximately -4%/decade and since it exists a negative correlation between total column ozone and erythemally active solar UV-radiation reaching the surface it is important to understand and assess the processes leading to the observed ozone decline. The simulated mini-hole events are validated with a mini-hole climatology based on daily ozone measurements with the TOMS (total ozone mapping spectrometer) instrument on the satellite Nimbus-7 between 1979 and 1993. Furthermore, possible trends in the event frequency and intensity over the simulation period are assessed. In the northern hemisphere the number of mini-hole events in early winter decreases between 1960 and 1990 and increases towards 2015. In the southern hemisphere a positive trend in mini-hole event frequency is detected between 1960 and 2015 in spring associated with the increasing Antarctic Ozone Hole. Finally, the impact of mini-holes on the stratospheric heterogeneous ozone chemistry is investigated. For this purpose, a computer-based detection routine for mini-holes was developed for the use in ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM. This method prevents polar stratospheric cloud formation and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion inside mini-holes. Heterogeneous processes inside mini-holes amount to one third of heterogeneous ozone destruction in general over northern mid- and high-latitudes during winter (January-April) in the simulation.

Modern approaches to photoprotection

UV light reacts with skin to produce undesirable changes, including photoaging and skin cancer. Sunscreen strategies are useful for protection against UV-B and short-wave UV-A, but complete protection against long-wave UV-A has not been achieved. Because UV-A is especially efficient at generating reactive oxygen species, it is being recognized increasingly as an important cause of photoaging and skin cancer.

Recent measurements of total ozone at British Antarctic Survey stations

The deep minimum in total ozone, the ‘ozone hole’, which is now observed each year in early spring in Antarctica, appears to be confined to the cold core of the polar vortex. The breakdown of the vortex in 1986 followed an unusual course, and produced an atypical variation of total ozone at Halley Bay. Upper-air data show that the cold core in this year was subjected to large displacement and rapid deformations. Despite these dynamic perturbations, the ozone amount within the core seems to have been scarcely affected. This is consistent with the observed behaviour of other tracers at high latitudes. The observations are most readily explained by supposing that the core of the polar vortex is maintained as a material entity or isolated air mass, even when it suffers erosion of material from its edge (as happens throughout the period leading up to the final warming). It has recently been suggested, solely on dynamical grounds, that the process of erosion is essentially one sided; the eroded material is readily mixed into middle latitudes, but the main vortex is remarkably impervious to even small-scale incursions of the surrounding air. Formerly, the timing of the final warming was very variable from year to year. Since 1979, no early final warming has occurred. The effect on monthly mean temperatures has been described by some workers as a cooling of the lower stratosphere. W hat should be said is that temperature in the core of the vortex rises more slowly now than formerly. This is not unexpected, because the heating rate in the lower stratosphere is strongly dependent on ozone amount. It is suggested that this slower warming can, by its influence on the diabatic mass circulation, affect ozone amounts outside the vortex. The limited evidence available suggests that no significant depletion of ozone occurs in darkness. However, by the time that the Sun is high enough to permit frequent measurements of ozone the loss rate is high and remains so until the equinox. It then diminishes rapidly, and the minimum value of ozone is attained by mid-October, well before the final warming of the lower stratosphere. This suggests a greater degree of solar control than is evinced by other aspects of vortex behaviour. It is inferred that the depletion of ozone arises largely from chemical sinks, and some reactions likely to be important are discussed. Attention is drawn to the photochemically labile reservoirs HOCl and NO 3 . Competitive reactions between their photoproducts determine critically the persistence, or otherwise, of an HO x , catalytic cycle in early spring.

Decadal evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole

Ozone column amounts obtained by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) in the southern polar region are analyzed during late austral winter and spring (days 240-300) for 1980-1991 using area-mapping techniques and area-weighted vortex averages. The vortex here is defined using the -50 PVU (1 PVU = 1.0 x 10(-6) K kg-1 m2 s-1) contour on the 500 K isentropic surface. The principal results are: (1) there is a distinct change after 1985 in the vortex-averaged column ozone depletion rate during September and October, the period of maximum ozone loss, and (2) the vortex-averaged column ozone in late August (day 240) has dropped by 70 Dobson units (DU) in a decade due to the loss in the dark and the dilution effect. The mean ozone depletion rate in the vortex between day 240 and the day of minimum vortex-averaged ozone is about 1 DU d-1 at the beginning of the decade, increasing to about 1.8 DU d-1 by 1985, and then apparently saturating thereafter. The vortex-average column ozone during September and October has declined at the rate of 11.3 DU yr-1 (3.8%) from 1980 to 1987 (90 DU over 8 years) and at a smaller rate of 2 DU yr-1 (0.9%) from 1987 to 1991 (10 DU over 5 years, excluding the anomalous year 1988). We interpret the year-to-year trend in the ozone depletion rate during the earlier part of the decade as due to the rise of anthropogenic chlorine in the atmosphere. The slower trend at the end of the decade indicates saturation of ozone depletion in the vortex interior, in that chlorine amounts in the mid-1980s were already sufficiently high to deplete most of the ozone in air within the isolated regions of the lower-stratospheric polar vortex. In subsequent years, increases in stratospheric chlorine may have enhanced wintertime chemical loss of ozone in the south polar vortex even before major losses during the Antarctic spring.