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Cook ER, Seager R, Kushnir Y, Briffa KR, Büntgen U, Frank D, Krusic PJ, Tegel W, van der Schrier G, Andreu-Hayles L, Baillie M, Baittinger C, Bleicher N, Bonde N, Brown D, Carrer M, Cooper R, Čufar K, Dittmar C, Esper J, Griggs C, Gunnarson B, Günther B, Gutierrez E, Haneca K, Helama S, Herzig F, Heussner KU, Hofmann J, Janda P, Kontic R, Köse N, Kyncl T, Levanič T, Linderholm H, Manning S, Melvin TM, Miles D, Neuwirth B, Nicolussi K, Nola P, Panayotov M, Popa I, Rothe A, Seftigen K, Seim A, Svarva H, Svoboda M, Thun T, Timonen M, Touchan R, Trotsiuk V, Trouet V, Walder F, Ważny T, Wilson R, Zang C. Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2015; 1:e1500561. [PMID: 26601136 PMCID: PMC4640589 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2015] [Accepted: 08/04/2015] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other "Old World" climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the "Old World Drought Atlas" (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edward R. Cook
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
- Corresponding author. E-mail:
| | - Richard Seager
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Yochanan Kushnir
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Keith R. Briffa
- Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Ulf Büntgen
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - David Frank
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
| | - Paul J. Krusic
- Navarino Environmental Observatory, Messinia 24001, Greece
| | - Willy Tegel
- Institute for Forest Growth (IWW), University of Freiburg, Freiburg 79106, Germany
| | | | - Laia Andreu-Hayles
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Mike Baillie
- Paleoecology Center, Queens University, Belfast BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland
| | | | - Niels Bleicher
- Competence Center for Underwater Archaeology and Dendrochronology, Office for Urbanism, City of Zürich, Zürich 8008, Switzerland
| | - Niels Bonde
- National Museum of Denmark, Copenhagen DK-1220, Denmark
| | - David Brown
- Paleoecology Center, Queens University, Belfast BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland
| | - Marco Carrer
- TeSAF Department, Università degli Studi di Padova, Agripolis, Legnaro I-35020, Italy
| | - Richard Cooper
- Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Katarina Čufar
- Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana SI-1000, Slovenia
| | - Christoph Dittmar
- Environmental Research and Education (UFB), Mistelbach 95511, Germany
| | - Jan Esper
- Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz 55099, Germany
| | - Carol Griggs
- Cornell Tree Ring Laboratory, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - Björn Gunnarson
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106, Sweden
| | - Björn Günther
- Technische Universität Dresden, Tharandt D-01737, Germany
| | - Emilia Gutierrez
- Department of Ecology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona 08028, Spain
| | | | - Samuli Helama
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi FI-96301, Finland
| | - Franz Herzig
- Bavarian State Department for Cultural Heritage, Thierhaupten 86672, Germany
| | | | | | - Pavel Janda
- Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 16521, Czech Republic
| | | | - Nesibe Köse
- Faculty of Forestry, Istanbul University, Bahcekoy, Sariyer 34473, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Tomáš Kyncl
- Moravian Dendro-Labor, Brno 61600, Czech Republic
| | - Tom Levanič
- Slovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana SI-1000, Slovenia
| | - Hans Linderholm
- Department of Earth Sciences, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg SE-405, Sweden
| | - Sturt Manning
- Cornell Tree Ring Laboratory, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - Thomas M. Melvin
- Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Daniel Miles
- Oxford Dendrochronology Laboratory, Oxford University, Oxford RG4 7TX, UK
| | | | - Kurt Nicolussi
- Institut für Geographie, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck A-6020, Austria
| | - Paola Nola
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia 27100, Italy
| | - Momchil Panayotov
- Dendrology Department, University of Forestry, Sophia 1756, Bulgaria
| | - Ionel Popa
- Forest Research and Management Institute, Calea Bucovinei, Campulung Moldovenesc 725100, Romania
| | - Andreas Rothe
- Faculty of Forestry, University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Freising 85354, Germany
| | - Kristina Seftigen
- Department of Earth Sciences, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg SE-405, Sweden
| | - Andrea Seim
- Department of Earth Sciences, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg SE-405, Sweden
| | - Helene Svarva
- NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7012, Norway
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 16521, Czech Republic
| | - Terje Thun
- NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7012, Norway
| | - Mauri Timonen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi FI-96301, Finland
| | - Ramzi Touchan
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Volodymyr Trotsiuk
- Department of Forest Ecology, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 16521, Czech Republic
| | - Valerie Trouet
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Felix Walder
- Competence Center for Underwater Archaeology and Dendrochronology, Office for Urbanism, City of Zürich, Zürich 8008, Switzerland
| | - Tomasz Ważny
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
- Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun 87-100, Poland
| | - Rob Wilson
- School of Geography and Geosciences, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews KY16 9AL, Scotland
| | - Christian Zang
- Ecoclimatology, Technische Universität München, Freising 85354, Germany
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