Different prognostic models for different patient populations: validation of a new prognostic model for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in Western Europe

Role of TORS as De-Escalation Strategy in HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer, What We Need to Know

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) presents unique challenges and opportunities for treatment, particularly regarding de-escalation strategies to reduce treatment morbidity without compromising oncological outcomes. This paper examines the role of Transoral Robotic Surgery (TORS) as a de-escalation strategy in managing HPV-related OPSCC. We conducted a comprehensive literature review from January 2010 to June 2023, focusing on studies exploring TORS outcomes in patients with HPV-positive OPSCC. These findings highlight TORS's potential to reduce the need for adjuvant therapy, thereby minimizing treatment-related side effects while maintaining high rates of oncological control. TORS offers advantages such as precise tumor resection and the ability to obtain accurate pathological staging, which can guide the tailoring of adjuvant treatments. Some clinical trials provide evidence supporting the use of TORS in specific patient populations. The MC1273 trial demonstrated promising outcomes with lower doses of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) following TORS, showing high locoregional tumor control rates and favorable survival outcomes with minimal side effects. ECOG 3311 evaluated upfront TORS followed by histopathologically directed adjuvant therapy, revealing good oncological and functional outcomes, particularly in intermediate-risk patients. The SIRS trial emphasized the benefits of upfront surgery with neck dissection followed by de-escalated RT in patients with favorable survival and excellent functional outcomes. At the same time, the PATHOS trial examined the impact of risk-adapted adjuvant treatment on functional outcomes and survival. The ongoing ADEPT trial investigates reduced-dose adjuvant RT, and the DART-HPV study aims to compare standard adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with a reduced dose of adjuvant RT in HPV-positive OPSCC patients. These trials collectively underscore the potential of TORS in facilitating treatment de-escalation while maintaining favorable oncological and functional outcomes in selected patients with HPV-related OPSCC. The aim of this scoping review is to discuss the challenges of risk stratification, the importance of HPV status determination, and the implications of smoking on treatment outcomes. It also explores the evolving criteria for adjuvant therapy following TORS, focusing on reducing radiation dosage and volume without compromising treatment efficacy. In conclusion, TORS emerges as a viable upfront treatment option for carefully selected patients with HPV-positive OPSCC, offering a pathway toward treatment de-escalation. However, selecting the optimal candidate for TORS-based de-escalation strategies is crucial to fully leverage the benefits of treatment de-intensification.

Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prognostic-Predictive Classifier for Treatment Escalation of Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The PREDICTR-OPC Study

PURPOSE

While there are several prognostic classifiers, to date, there are no validated predictive models that inform treatment selection for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).Our aim was to develop clinical and/or biomarker predictive models for patient outcome and treatment escalation for OPSCC.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We retrospectively collated clinical data and samples from a consecutive cohort of OPSCC cases treated with curative intent at ten secondary care centers in United Kingdom and Poland between 1999 and 2012. We constructed tissue microarrays, which were stained and scored for 10 biomarkers. We then undertook multivariable regression of eight clinical parameters and 10 biomarkers on a development cohort of 600 patients. Models were validated on an independent, retrospectively collected, 385-patient cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 985 subjects (median follow-up 5.03 years, range: 4.73-5.21 years) were included. The final biomarker classifier, comprising p16 and survivin immunohistochemistry, high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in situ hybridization, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, predicted benefit from combined surgery + adjuvant chemo/radiotherapy over primary chemoradiotherapy in the high-risk group [3-year overall survival (OS) 63.1% vs. 41.1%, respectively, HR = 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.16-0.65; P = 0.002], but not in the low-risk group (HR = 0.4; 95% CI, 0.14-1.24; P = 0.114). On further adjustment by propensity scores, the adjusted HR in the high-risk group was 0.34, 95% CI = 0.17-0.67, P = 0.002, and in the low-risk group HR was 0.5, 95% CI = 0.1-2.38, P = 0.384. The concordance index was 0.73.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a prognostic classifier, which also appears to demonstrate moderate predictive ability. External validation in a prospective setting is now underway to confirm this and prepare for clinical adoption.

Predictors for Survival of Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Unknown Primary in the Head and Neck Region

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) status is the most important predictor of survival in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). In patients with cervical lymph node metastases of squamous cell carcinoma of unknown origin (CUPHNSCC), much less is known. Methods: We assessed a consecutive cohort of CUPHNSCC diagnosed from 2000–2018 for HPV DNA, mRNA, p16INK4a (p16) expression, and risk factors to identify prognostic classification markers. Results: In 32/103 (31%) CUPHNSCC, p16 was overexpressed, and high-risk HPV DNA was detected in 18/32 (56.3%). This was mostly consistent with mRNA detection. In recursive partitioning analysis, CUPHNSCC patients were classified into three risk groups according to performance status (ECOG) and p16. Principal component analysis suggests a negative correlation of p16, HPV DNA, and gender in relation to ECOG, as well as a correlation between N stage, extranodal extension, and tobacco/alcohol consumption. Conclusions: Despite obvious differences, CUPHNSCC shares similarities in risk profile with OPSCC. However, the detection of p16 alone appears to be more suitable for the classification of CUPHNSCC than for OPSCC and, in combination with ECOG, allows stratification into three risk groups. In the future, additional factors besides p16 and ECOG may become important in larger studies or cases with special risk profiles.

Surgical Treatment for Advanced Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Narrative Review

Background and Objectives: to describe current scientific knowledge regarding the treatment options in advanced oropharyngeal cancer. The standard care for advanced oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC) has been chemoradiotherapy, although surgical approaches followed by adjuvant treatment have been proposed. The best therapy for each patient should be decided by an interdisciplinary tumour-board. Different strategies should be considered for the specific patient's treatment: surgery, chemotherapy and radiation therapy or combinations of them. The treatment choice is influenced by tumour variability and prognostic factors, but it also depends on cancer extension, extranodal extension, nervous invasion, human papilloma virus (HPV) presence, making the decisional algorithm not always clear. HPV-related OPSCC is strongly associated with a favourable overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival rate (DSS); by contrast, HPV-negative OPSCC often flags a worse prognosis. Consequently, the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) differentiates OPSCC treatment and prognosis based on HPV status. Methods: we carried out a review of current scientific literature to analyze the different indications and limitations of surgical treatment options in OPSCC stage III and IV. Conclusion: robotic surgery or open approaches with reconstructive flaps can be considered in advanced stages, resulting in the de-intensification of subsequent systemic therapy and fewer related side effects. Furthermore, in the event of the primary failure of systemic therapy or disease recurrence, the surgical approach constitutes an additional therapeutic option which lengthens patient survival functions.

The COMPLETE trial: HolistiC early respOnse assessMent for oroPharyngeaL cancEr paTiEnts; Protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION

The locoregional failure (LRF) rate in human papilloma virus (HPV)-negative oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) remains disappointingly high and toxicity is substantial. Response prediction prior to or early during treatment would provide opportunities for personalised treatment. Currently, there are no accurate predictive models available for correct OPSCC patient selection. Apparently, the pivotal driving forces that determine how a OPSCC responds to treatment, have yet to be elucidated. Therefore, the holistiC early respOnse assessMent for oroPharyngeaL cancer paTiEnts study focuses on a holistic approach to gain insight in novel potential prognostic biomarkers, acquired before and early during treatment, to predict response to treatment in HPV-negative patients with OPSCC.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This single-centre prospective observational study investigates 60 HPV-negative patients with OPSCC scheduled for primary radiotherapy (RT) with cisplatin or cetuximab, according to current clinical practice. A holistic approach will be used that aims to map the macroscopic (with Intra Voxel Incoherent Motion Diffusion Kurtosis Imaging (IVIM-DKI); before, during, and 3 months after RT), microscopic (with biopsies of the primary tumour acquired before treatment and irradiated ex vivo to assess radiosensitivity), and molecular landscape (with circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) analysed before, during and 3 months after treatment). The main end point is locoregional control (LRC) 2 years after treatment. The primary objective is to determine whether a relative change in the mean of the diffusion coefficient D (an IVIM-DKI parameter) in the primary tumour early during treatment, improves the performance of a predictive model consisting of tumour volume only, for 2 years LRC after treatment. The secondary objectives investigate the potential of other IVIM-DKI parameters, ex vivo sensitivity characteristics, ctDNA, and combinations thereof as potential novel prognostic markers.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of Erasmus Medical Center. The main results of the trial will be presented in international meetings and medical journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NL8458.

Additional parameters to improve the prognostic value of the 8th edition of the UICC classification for human papillomavirus-related oropharyngeal tumors

Background

The prognostic reliability of the UICC's TNM classification (8th edition) for human papillomavirus (HPV)‐positive tonsillar squamous cell carcinomas (TSCCs) compared to the 7th edition was explored, and its improvement by using additional anatomical and nonanatomical parameters.

Methods

One hundred and ten HPV‐positive and 225 HPV‐negative TSCCs were retrospectively analyzed. Survival was correlated with patient and tumor characteristics (7th and 8th edition UICC TNM classification).

Results

In HPV‐positive TSCCs, the 8th edition UICC's TNM classification correlated better with prognosis than the 7th edition. Also, smoking status was a stronger prognosticator of survival than UICC staging. Non‐ or former smokers had a 5‐year overall survival of 95.1% regardless of tumor stage. Furthermore, age (>65 years), cN3, and M1 classification were significant prognostic factors.

Conclusion

The prognostic value of the 8th edition UICC's TNM classification improved significantly when compared to the 7th edition. Nonetheless, further improvement is possible by adding nonanatomical factors (smoking, age >65 year) and separating N0‐N2 from N3.

Non-Robustness of Ang’s Risk Classification in Human Papillomavirus-Related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Japanese Patients

Background: Validity of the risk classification by Ang for human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) remains to be studied in the patients treated by modalities other than chemoradiotherapy and in Japanese patients. Materials and Methods: Between 2010 and 2018, 122 patients with HPV-related OPSCC in stages III and IV by the TNM classification 7th edition (TNM-7) were treated curatively at a single institution in Japan. The median age was 62.7 years. Over 50% of the patients underwent surgery with or without adjuvant therapy. The influence of multiple factors on survival was analyzed. Results: The amount of smoking dichotomized at 10 pack-year, which was used in Ang’s risk classification, was not predictive of prognosis, and Ang’s risk classification was not significantly influential on prognosis in multivariate analysis. In the patients treated with definitive radiation therapy, Ang’s risk classification was not predictive of the prognosis in univariate analysis. The impact of smoking was significant only in the patients undergoing the definitive operation. Conclusions: Ang’s risk classification was not robust in predicting the prognosis of general Japanese HPV-related OPSCC patients. The amount of smoking might have different prognostic influences depending on the therapeutic method.

Epigenetic biomarkers of ageing are predictive of mortality risk in a longitudinal clinical cohort of individuals diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer

BACKGROUND

Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed "epigenetic age acceleration", has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno), one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality (ZhangScore). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated.

RESULTS

IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069).

CONCLUSION

In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification.

De-escalation studies in HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer: How should we proceed?

Human papilloma virus (HPV) is a well-established causative factor in a subset of squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck (HNSCC). Although HPV can be detected in various anatomical subsites, HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is the most common HPV-related malignancy of the head and neck, and its worldwide incidence is constantly rising. Patients with OPSCC are generally younger, have less co-morbidities and generally have better prognosis due to different biological mechanisms of carcinogenesis. These facts have generated hypotheses on potential treatment modifications, aiming to minimize treatment-related toxicities without compromising therapy efficacy. Numerous randomized clinical trials have been designed to verify this strategy and increasingly real-world evidence data from retrospective, observational studies is becoming available. Until now, the data do not support any modification in contemporary treatment protocols. In this narrative review, we outline recent data provided by both randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence of HPV-positive OPSCC in terms of clinical value. We critically analyze the potential value and drawbacks of the available data and highlight future research directions. This article was written by members and invitees of the International Head and Neck Scientific Group.(www.IHNSG.com).

Development and Assessment of a Model for Predicting Individualized Outcomes in Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

IMPORTANCE

Recent insights into the biologic characteristics and treatment of oropharyngeal cancer may help inform improvements in prognostic modeling. A bayesian multistate model incorporates sophisticated statistical techniques to provide individualized predictions of survival and recurrence outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model for individualized survival, locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis prognostication for patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal cancer, incorporating clinical, oncologic, and imaging data.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this prognostic study, a data set was used comprising 840 patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal cancer treated at a National Cancer Institute-designated center between January 2003 and August 2016; analysis was performed between January 2019 and June 2020. Using these data, a bayesian multistate model was developed that can be used to obtain individualized predictions. The prognostic performance of the model was validated using data from 447 patients treated for oropharyngeal cancer at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands.

EXPOSURES

Clinical/oncologic factors and imaging biomarkers collected at or before initiation of first-line therapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Overall survival, locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis after first-line cancer treatment.

RESULTS

Of the 840 patients included in the National Cancer Institute-designated center, 715 (85.1%) were men and 268 (31.9%) were current smokers. The Erasmus Medical Center cohort comprised 300 (67.1%) men, with 350 (78.3%) current smokers. Model predictions for 5-year overall survival demonstrated good discrimination, with area under the curve values of 0.81 for the model with and 0.78 for the model without imaging variables. Application of the model without imaging data in the independent Dutch validation cohort resulted in an area under the curve of 0.75. This model possesses good calibration and stratifies patients well in terms of likely outcomes among many competing events.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this prognostic study, a multistate model of oropharyngeal cancer incorporating imaging biomarkers appeared to estimate and discriminate locoregional recurrence from distant metastases. Providing personalized predictions of multiple outcomes increases the information available for patients and clinicians. The web-based application designed in this study may serve as a useful tool for generating predictions and visualizing likely outcomes for a specific patient.

20 pack-year smoking history as strongest smoking metric predictive of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer outcomes

OBJECTIVES

While smoking is associated with worse outcomes in HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), the magnitude of this association is unclear given the heterogenous smoking definitions and outcomes. Our objective was to investigate the association between smoking, survival, and recurrence in HPV-related OPSCC using multiple smoking metrics reported in the literature.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 375 adults with p16+ OPSCC undergoing surgical resection (n = 272) or definitive chemoradiation (n = 103) at a tertiary academic institution from 2006 to 2017. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included disease-free survival (DFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and recurrence. We used multiple smoking metrics commonly cited in previous studies, including ever versus never smokers, current versus former/never smokers, ≤10 versus >10 pack-year, ≤20 versus >20 pack-year, and continuous pack-year.

RESULTS

There were 375 patients, median age 58 years, with 326 (87%) males, and median follow-up of 52 months. Of all smoking metrics, >20 pack-year history was the strongest predictor of both OS (HR 2.24, 95% CI: 1.19-4.20) and DFS (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.04-2.66) on univariable and multivariable analysis after adjusting for age, overall stage, and comorbidities. Patients with >20 pack-year smoking history were also more likely to have recurrence (HR 1.59, 95% CI: 0.95-2.67) after adjusting for overall stage.

CONCLUSION

Heavier smoking >20 pack-years was the strongest smoking metric associated with 2-times worse survival and recurrence. Our findings suggest that >20 pack-year smoking history may be a more useful cutoff for risk stratification models but requires further validation.

External validation of a model to identify cardiometabolic predictors of mortality in cancer survivors

PURPOSE

Cancer survivors are at risk of cardiovascular disease because of shared risk factors and effects of treatment. There are few tools to assist in estimating the risk of poor outcomes relating to cardiovascular disease in cancer survivors and identifying those at risk. The purpose of this study was to externally validate a model for predicting the risk of increased mortality in female cancer survivors.

METHODS

A risk prediction model originally developed using data from the general population of older adults from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing was externally validated using data from two Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) cohorts. Three measures of discrimination were calculated. Calibration was assessed by visualising a graph of the model predictions and observed events.

RESULTS

The ALSWH cohorts consisted of 1764 women (aged 73-78 years) and 1833 women (aged 47-52 years). Discrimination was acceptable with the Harrell C-index and the Gonen and Heller K statistic both greater than 0.5. The model explained up to 30% of the variation in mortality. Calibration showed that the recalibrated model performed best in years 8-10 suggesting that the model is better at predicting survival for those with a higher probability of surviving. Overall, model performance was better in the 47-52 years cohort than in the older cohort.

CONCLUSION

We have externally validated a model of cardiometabolic predictors of mortality in female cancer survivors. The model can serve as a basis of clinical tool to assist with decision-making regarding potential risk reduction strategies in this population.

External validation of nodal failure prediction models including radiomics in head and neck cancer

PURPOSE

To externally validate the previously published pre-treatment prediction models for lymph nodes failure after definitive radiotherapy in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This external validation cohort consisted of 143 node positive HNSCC patients treated between July 2007 and June 2016 by curative radiotherapy with or without either cisplatin or cetuximab. Imaging and pathology reports during follow-up were analyzed to indicate persisting or recurring nodes. The previously established clinical, radiomic and combined models were validated on this cohort by assessing the concordance index (c-index) and model calibration.

RESULTS

Overall 113 patients with 374 pLNs were suitable for final analysis. There were 20 (5.3%) nodal failures from 15 patients after a median follow-up of 36.1 months. Baseline characteristics and radiomic features were comparable to the training cohort. Both the radiomic model (Least-axis-length of lymph node (LALLN) and correlation of gray level co-occurrence matrix (Corre-GLCM)) and the combined model (T stage, gender, WHO performance score, LALLN and Corre-GLCM) showed good agreement between predicted and observed nodal control probabilities. The radiomic (c-index: 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.84) and combined (c-index: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.59-0.82) models performed better than the clinical model (c-index: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.47-0.68) on this cohort, with a significant difference between the combined and clinical models (z-score test: p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

The combined model including clinical and radiomic features was externally validated and proved useful to predict nodal failures and could be helpful to guide treatment choices before and after curative radiation treatment for node positive HNSCC patients.

Early T1-T2 stage p16+ oropharyngeal tumours. Role of upfront transoral robotic surgery in de-escalation treatment strategies. A review of the current literature

Human papillomavirus is responsible of approximately 70% oropharyngeal tumours and is related with more favourable outcomes. It has led to an increasing interest for de-escalation treatment strategies such as Trans Oral Robotic Surgery (TORS). A literature review was performed searching for the role of TORS as de-escalation modality of treatment in patients with p16 positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Special attention was paid to the potential advantage offered by TORS in reducing adjuvant radiation therapy. Six questions were formulated. 67 studies were selected. Several trials analysing the role of upfront TORS to treat early stage p16+ OPSCC and the possibility of reducing the adjuvant radiotherapy were founded. A lot of studies based on the experience of single centres show promising results. Nevertheless to date no definitive data can be extrapolated. The continued investigation of this line of de-escalation therapy with randomized prospective clinical trials is needed.

Development of a multiomics database for personalized prognostic forecasting in head and neck cancer: The Big Data to Decide EU Project

Background

Despite advances in treatments, 30% to 50% of stage III‐IV head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients relapse within 2 years after treatment. The Big Data to Decide (BD2Decide) project aimed to build a database for prognostic prediction modeling.

Methods

Stage III‐IV HNSCC patients with locoregionally advanced HNSCC treated with curative intent (1537) were included. Whole transcriptomics and radiomics analyses were performed using pretreatment tumor samples and computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scans, respectively.

Results

The entire cohort was composed of 71% male (1097)and 29% female (440): oral cavity (429, 28%), oropharynx (624, 41%), larynx (314, 20%), and hypopharynx (170, 11%); median follow‐up 50.5 months. Transcriptomics and imaging data were available for 1284 (83%) and 1239 (80%) cases, respectively; 1047 (68%) patients shared both.

Conclusions

This annotated database represents the HNSCC largest available repository and will enable to develop/validate a decision support system integrating multiscale data to explore through classical and machine learning models their prognostic role.

The prognostic value of CT-based image-biomarkers for head and neck cancer patients treated with definitive (chemo-)radiation

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate whether quantitative CT image-biomarkers (IBMs) can improve the prediction models with only classical prognostic factors for local-control (LC), regional-control (RC), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for head and neck cancer (HNC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cohort included 240 and 204 HNC patients in the training and validation analysis, respectively. Clinical variables were scored prospectively and IBMs of the primary tumor and lymph nodes were extracted from planning CT-images. Clinical, IBM and combined models were created from multivariable Cox proportional-hazard analyses based on clinical features, IBMs, and both for LC, RC, DMFS and DFS.

RESULTS

Clinical variables identified in the multivariable analysis included tumor-site, WHO performance-score, tumor-stage and age. Bounding-box-volume describing the tumor volume and irregular shape, IBM correlation representing radiological heterogeneity, and LN_major-axis-length showing the distance between lymph nodes were included in the IBM models. The performance of IBM LC, RC, DMFS and DFS models (c-index(validated):0.62, 0.80, 0.68 and 0.65) were comparable to that of the clinical models (0.62, 0.76, 0.70 and 0.66). The combined DFS model (0.70) including clinical features and IBMs performed significantly better than the clinical model. Patients stratified with the combined models revealed larger differences between risk groups in the validation cohort than with clinical models for LC, RC and DFS. For DMFS, the differences were similar to the clinical model.

CONCLUSION

For prediction of HNC treatment outcomes, image-biomarkers performed as good as or slightly better than clinical variables.

A prognostic scoring model based on the HPV status of oropharyngeal carcinoma patients treated with postoperative radiotherapy in China

OBJECTIVES

Prognostic models that can predict prognosis and guide postoperative radiotherapy (PRT) and that are based on the human papillomavirus (HPV) status of patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPSCC) in China are rare.

METHODS

Survival was analyzed by performing a Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test. A Cox regression analysis was performed for the multivariate analyses. A prognostic scoring model was constructed according to the regression coefficient obtained from the Cox regression model.

RESULTS

A prognostic model that included gender, clinical stage, histologic stage, metastasis, and HPV status was created and used to divide patients into high-risk (PI ≥ -0.008) and low-risk (PI < -0.008) groups. The results showed that the patients who received PRT had a longer overall survival time than those who did not receive PRT (47.31 months vs. 28.31 months). Furthermore, the patients who received PRT in the high-risk group had a longer survival time when the survival was greater than 20 months (P = 0.024), and PRT may indicate a worse prognosis in the low-risk group (P = 0.071).

CONCLUSION

This model will contribute to the formulation of individualized treatment programs for OPSCC patients. PRT should be administered to high-risk patients.

A model to predict nodal metastasis in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma

Difficulty in precise decision making on necessity of surgery is a major problem when managing oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) with clinically negative neck. Therefore, use of clinical and histopathological parameters in combination would be important to improve patient management. The main objective is to develop a model that predicts the presence of nodal metastasis in patients with OSCC.623 patients faced neck dissections with buccal mucosal or tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were selected from patients’ records. Demographic data, clinical information, nodal status, Depth of invasion (DOI) and pattern of invasion (POI) were recorded. The parameters which showed a significant association with nodal metastasis were used to develop a multivariable predictive model (PM). Univariate logistic regression was used to estimate the strengths of those associations in terms of odds ratios (OR). This showed statistically significant associations between status of the nodal metastasis and each of the following 4 histopathological parameters individually: size of the tumour (T), site, POI, and DOI. Specifically, OR of nodal metastasis for tongue cancers relative to buccal mucosal cancers was 1.89, P-value < 0.001. Similarly, ORs for POI type 3 and 4 relative to type 2 were 1.99 and 5.83 respectively. A similar relationship was found with tumour size; ORs for T2, T3, and T4 compared to T1 were 2.79, 8.27 and 8.75 respectively. These four histopathological parameters were then used to develop a predictive model for nodal metastasis. This model showed that probability of nodal metastasis is higher among tongue cancers with increasing POI, with increasing T, and with larger depths while other characteristics remained unchanged. The proposed model provides a way of using combinations of histopathological parameters to identify patients with higher risks of nodal metastasis for surgical management.

Patient Selection in Human Papillomavirus Related Oropharyngeal Cancer: The Added Value of Prognostic Models in the New TNM 8th Edition Era

Background: With the growing interest in treatment de-intensification trials for human papillomavirus positive (HPV+) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC), prognostic models have become essential for patient selection. The aim of this paper is to validate and compare the prognostic ability of the TNM 8th edition and previous published risk group classifications of Ang et al. and Rietbergen et al. and to derive a patient selection classification for de-intensification trials.

Materials: Patients with HPV+ OPC treated with curative (chemo)radiotherapy between 2004 and 2017 were classified according to the TNM 8th edition, the model of Ang et al. and of Rietbergen et al. HPV status was determined by p16 immunohistochemistry staining. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and groups were compared using the log-rank test. Harrell's C-index was used as measure of discriminative performance.

Results: A total of 333 OPC were identified of whom 100 were HPV+. The median follow-up was 63.7 months. The 5-year overall survival (5Y-OS) of stage I, II and III were 91.6, 55.2, and 38.0%. There was a significant difference between stage I vs. II and III. The Harrell's C-index for TNM 8th edition stage was 0.67. Including only HPV+ OPC, the Harrell's C-index for the model of Ang and Rietbergen were both 0.62. We combined the main prognostic factors defining the low risk groups in the three models, stage I, low comorbidity and ≤ 10 pack years, into one new low risk group to identify patients who may benefit from de-intensification trials. Intermediate risk was defined as stage I with high comorbidity or >10 pack years, high risk as stage II-III. The 5Y-OS were 100, 85.7, and 51.3%. The Harrell's C-index for the new classification model was 0.67.

Conclusion: Although TNM 8th edition provides better OS stratification than the 7th edition, it is not performant enough for patient selection, neither are the models from Ang et al. and Rietbergen et al. Therefore, we propose a patient selection classification for de-intensification trials based on the new TNM classification 8th edition, comorbidity and smoking pack years. In addition, this study emphasizes the importance of patient selection and personalized treatment for HPV+OPC.

[The innate immune system in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma : Immune modulation by HPV]

Based on clinical and experimental data, oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC) associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) have been recognized as a distinct entity of head and neck cancers. However, outside of clinical trials, HPV status currently has no impact on treatment. The natural replication cycle of HPV takes place in epithelial cells, and is thus spatially separated from cytotoxic immune cells in the epidermis. Dendritic cells (Langerhans cells, LC), however, are frequent in this upper dermal layer. The ability of LC to process antigens, migrate, and, ultimately activate T cells is inhibited by the activity of the viral oncoproteins (E5-E7). Downregulation of functional human leukocyte antigen I (HLA-I) epithelial cell surface expression contributes to LC inhibition. However, due to their absence in upper skin layers, corresponding activation of natural killer (NK) cells via missing-self recognition is not relevant. Genome-wide analyses have revealed specific expression signatures for HPV-associated OPSCC that are distinct from HPV-negative cancers. Interestingly, aberrations in HLA-I genes were common in HPV-associated OPSCC. Our own findings indicate more frequent infiltration of HPV-associated OPSCC by CD56-positive (CD56⁺) NK cells, which might be related to HLA-I downregulation during HPV-associated carcinogenesis. In patients with OPSCC, CD56 positivity correlates with improved prognosis after conventional therapy. This could be evidence for HPV-associated OPSCC being especially eligible for novel immune-based therapies and an indication that immunological data should be included in the design of clinical trials.

Is p16 an adequate surrogate for human papillomavirus status determination?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In head and neck cancer management, immunoexpression of protein p16 is widely used as a surrogate marker for human papillomavirus (HPV) positivity due to challenges of direct HPV testing. Previously p16 has been reported to have good sensitivity but only moderate specificity in HPV-status determination. The aim of this review is to evaluate the existing information on sensitivity and specificity of p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) in HPV-status determination among the recent studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

We searched the time period from October 2014 to April 2016 and included 28 studies (a total of 31 analyses), which reported both p16 and HPV status in their series. The sensitivity of p16 in HPV determination ranged between 28.2 and 100.0%. The mean and median sensitivities were 90.5 and 95.4%, respectively. The specificity ranged between 31.1 and 100.0%. The mean and median specificities were 83.3 and 87.3%, respectively.

SUMMARY

Our review presents current information on the feasibility of p16 IHC in HPV status determination, which is in line with previous studies. Patients with HPV-positive tumors can be identified with p16 IHC, but a risk for misclassification of HPV-negative tumors as HPV positive exists. This fact has to be taken into consideration if HPV status will influence treatment planning.

Prognostic Impact of AJCC/UICC 8th Edition New Staging Rules in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to test whether the 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system (UICC) precisely differentiates between stages and reflects disease outcome in human papilloma virus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).

Patients and methods

OPSCC patients that were diagnosed between 2000 and 2016 were included in this analysis and HPV status was determined by combined DNA and p16 testing. Stratification was done according to 7th and 8th UICC staging rules. Incidence trends of HPV-associated tumorigenesis, 5-year overall survival (OS) according to tumor stages as well as the influence of therapy and prognostic factors toward the outcome were calculated using Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional-hazards model.

Results

A significant increase [2000; n = 8/39 (21%)–2015; n = 17/32 (53%); p = 0.002] in HPV-associated OPSCC was seen in the observation period. Together, 150/599 (25.0%) of the patients had HPV-driven OPSCC and 64.7% of curative treatments in all OPSCC patients included upfront surgery of the primary and the neck. 7th edition staging rules led to no discrimination in all respective four UICC stages in HPV OPSCC underlining the need for new staging rules. However, only discrimination between stages I vs. II and III vs. IV was significant in our patients with HPV-OPSCC (94.4 vs. 77.5%; p = 0.031 and 63.9 vs. 25.0%; p = 0.013), and stages II vs. III did not differ in OS rates (p = 0.257), when applying the new staging rules. For HPV-negative OPSCC, significant outcome differences were only seen between UICC stages III vs. IV (57.6 vs. 35.2%; p = 0.012).

Discussion

While the 7th edition of UICC shows invalid discrimination between stages, the 8th edition is more suitable for HPV-associated carcinoma. Due to lack of differentiation between stages II and III further adaption is essential.

Predictive and prognostic value of CT based radiomics signature in locally advanced head and neck cancers patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy or bioradiotherapy and its added value to Human Papillomavirus status

OBJECTIVES

To explore prognostic and predictive value of radiomics in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (LAHNSCC) treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) or bioradiotherapy (BRT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data of 120 patients (CRT vs. BRT matched 2:1) were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 544 radiomics features of the primary tumor were extracted from radiotherapy planning computed tomography scans. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between survival and radiomics features with false discovery rate correction. The discriminatory performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed a 24-feature based signature significantly predicted for OS (HR=0.3, P=0.02) and progression-free survival (PFS) (HR=0.3, P=0.01). Combining the radiomics signature with p16 status showed a significant improvement of prognostic performance compared with p16 (AUC=0.78vs. AUC=0.64 at 5years, P=0.01) or radiomics signature (AUC=0.78vs. AUC=0.67, P=0.01) alone. When patients were stratified according to this combination, OS and PFS were significantly different according to the 4 sub-types (p16+ with low/high signature score; p16- with low/high signature score) (P<0.001). Patients with high signature score significantly benefited from CRT (vs. BRT) in terms of OS (P=0.004), while no benefit from CRT in patients with low signature score.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests an added value of radiomics features as prognostic and predictive biomarker in HNSCC treated with CRT/BRT. Moreover, the radiomics signature provided additional information to HPV/p16 status to further stratify patients. External validation of such findings is mandatory given the risk of overfitting.

Human papillomavirus association is the most important predictor for surgically treated patients with oropharyngeal cancer

BACKGROUND

Upfront surgery is a valuable treatment option for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and risk stratification is emerging for treatment de-escalation in human papillomavirus (HPV)-related OPSCC. Available prognostic models are either based on selected, mainly non-surgically treated cohorts. Therefore, we investigated unselected OPSCC treated with predominantly upfront surgery.

METHODS

All patients diagnosed with OPSCC and treated with curative intent between 2000 and 2009 (n=359) were included. HPV association was determined by HPV-DNA detection and p16^INK4a immunohistochemistry. Predictors with significant impact on overall survival (OS) in univariate analysis were included in recursive partitioning analysis.

RESULTS

Risk models generated from non-surgically treated patients showed low discrimination in our cohort. A new model developed for unselected patients predominantly treated with upfront surgery separates low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients with significant differences in 5-year OS (86%, 53% and 19%, P<0.001, respectively). HPV status is the most important parameter followed by T-stage in HPV-related and performance status in HPV-negative OPSCC. HPV status and ECOG remained important parameters in risk models for patients treated with or without surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of treatment strategies, HPV status is the strongest predictor of survival in unselected OPSCC patients. The proposed risk models are suitable to discriminate risk groups in unselected OPSCC patients treated with upfront surgery, which has substantial impact for design and interpretation of de-escalation trials.

HPV Testing of Head and Neck Cancer in Clinical Practice

The pathology laboratory has a central role in providing human papillomavirus (HPV) tests for patients with head and neck cancer. There is an extensive literature around HPV testing and a large number of proprietary HPV tests, which makes the field difficult to navigate. This review provides a concise contemporary overview of the evidence around HPV testing in head and neck cancer and signposts key publications, guideline documents and the most commonly used methods in clinical practice.

A novel prognostic index for oral squamous cell carcinoma patients with surgically treated

This study aims to develop an applicable prognostic index with conventional factors for predicting outcome of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). We performed a prospective study in a large cohort of 892 OSCC patients in Fujian, China. All patients were randomly divided into a discovery group and validation group. A prognostic index was developed based on β value of each significant variable obtained from the multivariate Cox regression model. The results from discovery and validation set demonstrated thatthe model-4(included clinical stage, tumor differentiation, ill-fitting denture, oral hygiene and cigarette smoking) was the optimal model. The optimal cutoff points of prognostic index (1.88 and 2.80) were determined by X-tile program which categorized all subjects into low, middle and high risk subsets. Patients in high risk group were at the greatest risk of death compared with those in low risk group (HR: 6.02; 95%CI: 4.33-8.38). Moreover, there was a significant tendency of the worse overall survival with the higher prognostic index (Ptrend <0.001). The discriminatory capacity of prognostic index was 0.661(95%CI: 0.621-0.701). This study developed and validated a prognostic index that is an economical and useful tool for predicting the clinical outcomes of OSCC patients in Southeast China. Future randomized trials with larger cohort are required to confirm our results.

Tumor Staging and HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer

The current TNM staging for oropharyngeal cancer (OSCC) was designed empirically for non-HPV-related disease. Emerging evidence suggests it is unsuited for Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related OSCC. Patients with HPV-positive tumors have improved prognosis, despite presenting at advanced stages. These shortcomings of the current staging system have been identified in single- and multi-institutional trials. Patients with HPV related OSCC typically present with advanced N-stages leading to higher stage groupings. A rarity of stages I and II therefore represents the nature of HPV-related OSCC. Concerning prognosis of the patients, N-category and extracapsular spread seem to be of minor importance, whereas advanced T-stages result in unfavourable outcome. Anatomical staging therefore has been implied into different proposals to prognostic risk classifications in HPV-related disease as an additive compound. Prognostic risk groupings are further enhanced by incorporating non-anatomical factors. To summarize, it can be suggested that the current TNM system alone has little prognostic value in HPV-related OSCC.

A beneficial tumor microenvironment in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma is characterized by a high T cell and low IL-17(+) cell frequency

Patients with HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) have a better prognosis than patients with non-HPV-induced OPSCC. The role of the immune response in this phenomenon is yet unclear. We studied the number of T cells, regulatory T cells (Tregs), T helper 17 (Th17) cells and IL-17⁺ non-T cells (mainly granulocytes) in matched HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC cases (n = 162). Furthermore, the production of IFN-γ and IL-17 by tumor-infiltrating T cells was analyzed. The number of tumor-infiltrating T cells and Tregs was higher in HPV-positive than HPV-negative OPSCC (p < 0.0001). In contrast, HPV-negative OPSCC contained significantly higher numbers of IL-17⁺ non-T cells (p < 0.0001). Although a high number of intra-tumoral T cells showed a trend toward improved survival of all OPSCC patients, their prognostic effect in patients with a low number of intra-tumoral IL-17⁺ non-T cells was significant with regard to disease-specific (p = 0.033) and disease-free survival (p = 0.012). This suggests that a high frequency of IL-17⁺ non-T cells was related to a poor immune response, which was further supported by the observation that a high number of T cells was correlated with improved disease-free survival in the HPV-positive OPSCC (p = 0.008). In addition, we detected a minor Th17 cell population. However, T cells obtained from HPV-positive OPSCC produced significantly more IL-17 than those from HPV-negative tumors (p = 0.006). The improved prognosis of HPV-positive OPSCC is thus correlated with higher numbers of tumor-infiltrating T cells, more active Th17 cells and lower numbers of IL-17⁺ non-T cells.

Applications of molecular diagnostics for personalized treatment of head and neck cancer: state of the art

Squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck are the sixth most frequent tumors worldwide. Risk factors are carcinogenic exposure, infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) and genetic predisposition. Lymph node metastasis in the neck and HPV status are major prognostic factors. There are several important clinical challenges that determine the research agenda in head and neck cancer. The first is more accurate staging, particularly of occult metastatic lymph nodes in the neck. A second challenge is the lack of biomarkers for personalized therapy. There are a number of treatment modalities that can be employed both single and in combination, but at present only site and stage of the tumor are used for treatment planning. Provided here is an overview of the successes and failures of molecular diagnostic approaches that have been and are being evaluated to address these clinical challenges.

Oral cavity and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma--an update

Oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OC-SCC) is the most common malignancy of the head and neck (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer). Recent trends have shown a dramatic rise in the incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OP-SCC), with a marked increase in lesions related to human papillomavirus infection. This update presents the latest evidence regarding OC-SCC and OP-SCC. In particular, the authors compare and contrast tumors at these two sites with respect to epidemiology, etiopathogenesis, clinicopathologic presentation, clinical assessment, imaging, management, and prognosis. It is important for clinicians to be aware of differences between OC-SCC and OP-SCC so that appropriate patient education and multidisciplinary care can be provided to optimize outcomes.

External validation of a prognostic CT-based radiomic signature in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is one of the fastest growing disease sites of head and neck cancers. A recently described radiomic signature, based exclusively on pre-treatment computed tomography (CT) imaging of the primary tumor volume, was found to be prognostic in independent cohorts of lung and head and neck cancer patients treated in the Netherlands. Here, we further validate this signature in a large and independent North American cohort of OPSCC patients, also considering CT artifacts.

METHODS

A total of 542 OPSCC patients were included for which we determined the prognostic index (PI) of the radiomic signature. We tested the signature model fit in a Cox regression and assessed model discrimination with Harrell's c-index. Kaplan-Meier survival curves between high and low signature predictions were compared with a log-rank test. Validation was performed in the complete cohort (PMH1) and in the subset of patients without (PMH2) and with (PMH3) visible CT artifacts within the delineated tumor region.

RESULTS

We identified 267 (49%) patients without and 275 (51%) with visible CT artifacts. The calibration slope (β) on the PI in a Cox proportional hazards model was 1.27 (H0: β = 1, p = 0.152) in the PMH1 (n = 542), 0.855 (H0: β = 1, p = 0.524) in the PMH2 (n = 267) and 1.99 (H0: β = 1, p = 0.002) in the PMH3 (n = 275) cohort. Harrell's c-index was 0.628 (p = 2.72e-9), 0.634 (p = 2.7e-6) and 0.647 (p = 5.35e-6) for the PMH1, PMH2 and PMH3 cohort, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were significantly different (p < 0.05) between high and low radiomic signature model predictions for all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the signature validated well using all CT images as-is, demonstrating a good model fit and preservation of discrimination. Even though CT artifacts were shown to be of influence, the signature had significant prognostic power regardless if patients with CT artifacts were included.