Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing

Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world's population

Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding of changes across multiple climate model simulations under a warmer climate is limited by this lack of coherence across models. Here, we address this challenge introducing an approach that detects agreement in drier and wetter conditions by evaluating continuous 120-year time-series with trends, across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs and two elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. We show the hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, including regions already experiencing water scarcity or excess. These patterns are projected to impact a significant portion of the global population, with approximately 3 billion people (38% of the world's current population) affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion people (66% of the world population) under a high emissions scenario by the century's end (or 35-61% using projections of future population). We undertake a country- and state-level analysis quantifying the population exposed to significant changes in precipitation regimes, offering a robust framework for assessing multiple climate projections.

Ancient DNA reveals potentially toxic cyanobacteria increasing with climate change

Cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater systems are a global threat to human and aquatic ecosystem health, exhibiting particularly harmful effects when toxin-producing taxa are present. While climatic change and nutrient over-enrichment control the global expansion of total cyanobacterial blooms, it remains unknown to what extent this expansion reflected cyanobacterial assemblage due to the scarcity of long-term monitoring data. Here we use high-throughput sequencing of sedimentary DNA to track ∼100 years of changes in cyanobacterial community in hyper-eutrophic Lake Taihu, China's third largest freshwater lake and the key water source for ∼30 million people. A steady increase in the abundance of Microcystis (as potential toxin producers) during the past thirty years was correlated with increasing temperatures and declining wind speeds, but not with temporal trends in lakewater nutrient concentrations, highlighting recent climate effects on potentially increasing toxin-producing taxa. The socio-environmental repercussions of these findings are worrisome as continued anthropogenic climate change may counteract nutrient amelioration efforts in this critical freshwater resource.

The Diversity of Soil Bacteria and Fungi Under Altered Nitrogen and Rainfall Patterns in a Temperate Steppe

The response of soil microorganisms to altered nitrogen (N) and rainfall patterns plays an important role in understanding ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycling processes under global change. Previous studies have separately focused on the effects of N addition and rainfall on soil microbial diversity and community composition. However, the combined and interactive impact of N addition and rainfall on soil microbial diversity and function mediated by plant and soil processes have been poorly investigated for grassland ecosystems. Here, we conducted a field experiment with simulated N addition (N addition: 10 g N m^–2yr^–1) and altered rainfall pattern [control, rainfall reduction (compared to control –50%); rainfall addition (compared to control + 50%)] to study their interactive effects on soil microbial diversity and function in a temperate steppe of Inner Mongolia. Our results showed that N addition and rainfall addition significantly increased soil bacterial diversity, and the bacterial diversity was positively correlated with soil microbial biomass nitrogen, inorganic nitrogen, and Stipa krylovii root exudate C:N ratio, Allium polyrhizum root exudate C and N, and A. polyrhizum root exudate C:N ratio. N addition and rainfall reduction significantly reduced fungal diversity, which correlated closely with soil microbial biomass carbon and the C:N ratio of A. polyrhizum root exudates. Bacteria were mainly eutrophic r-strategists, and the responses of bacterial function guilds to the interaction between N addition and rainfall pattern were not significant. However, the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), in the functional classification of fungi, were significantly reduced under the condition of N addition and rainfall reduction, and the absolute abundance of the phylum Glomeromycota increased under rainfall addition, suggesting that AMFs are sensitive to altered N and rainfall patterns over short timescales (1 year). Collectively, our results have important implications for understanding the plant–soil–microbe system of grasslands under climate change.

Effect of Precipitation Variation on Soil Respiration in Rain-Fed Winter Wheat Systems on the Loess Plateau, China

Global climate change has aggravated the hydrological cycle by changing both the amount and distribution of precipitation, and this is especially notable in the semiarid Loess Plateau. How these precipitation variations have affected soil carbon (C) emission by the agroecosystems is still unclear. Here, to evaluate the effects of precipitation variation on soil respiration (Rs), a field experiment (from 2019 to 2020) was conducted with 3 levels of manipulation, including ambient precipitation (CK), 30% decreased precipitation (P−30), and 30% increased precipitation (P+30) in rain-fed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) agroecosystems on the Loess Plateau, China. The results showed that the average Rs in P−30 treatment was significantly higher than those in the CK and P+30 treatments (p < 0.05), and the cumulative CO2 emissions were 406.37, 372.58 and 383.59 g C m−2, respectively. Seasonal responses of Rs to the soil volumetric moisture content (VWC) were affected by the different precipitation treatments. Rs was quadratically correlated with the VWC in the CK and P+30 treatments, and the threshold of the optimal VWC for Rs was approximately 16.06−17.07%. However, Rs was a piecewise linear function of the VWC in the P−30 treatment. The synergism of soil temperature (Ts) and VWC can better explain the variation in soil respiration in the CK and P−30 treatments. However, an increase in precipitation led to the decoupling of the Rs responses to Ts. The temperature sensitivity of respiration (Q10) varied with precipitation variation. Q10 was positive correlated with seasonal Ts in the CK and P+30 treatments, but exhibited a negative polynomial correlation with seasonal Ts in the P−30 treatment. Rs also exhibited diurnal clockwise hysteresis loops with Ts in the three precipitation treatments, and the seasonal dynamics of the diurnal lag time were significantly negatively correlated with the VWC. Our study highlighted that understanding the synergistic and decoupled responses of Rs and Q10 to Ts and VWC and the threshold of the change in response to the VWC under precipitation variation scenarios can benefit the prediction of future C balances in agroecosystems in semiarid regions under climate change.

Higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial weakened the South Asian monsoon

Understanding the drivers of South Asian monsoon intensity is pivotal for improving climate forecasting under global warming scenarios. Solar insolation is assumed to be the dominant driver of monsoon variability in warm climate regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data. We report a South Asian monsoon rainfall record spanning the last ∼130 kyr in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river catchment. Our multiproxy data reveal that the South Asian monsoon was weaker during the Last Interglacial (130 to 115 ka)—despite higher insolation—than during the Holocene (11.6 ka to present), thus questioning the widely accepted model assumption. Our work implies that Indian Ocean warming may increase the occurrence of severe monsoon failures in South Asia.

Addressing and anticipating future South Asian monsoon changes under continuing global warming is of critical importance for the food security and socioeconomic well-being of one-quarter of the world’s population. However, climate model projections show discrepancies in future monsoon variability in South Asian monsoon domains, largely due to our still limited understanding of the monsoon response to warm climate change scenarios. Particularly, climate models are largely based on the assumption that higher solar insolation causes higher rainfall during similar warm climatic regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data for different interglacial periods. Here, we compare Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability during the Last Interglacial and Holocene using a sedimentary leaf wax δD and δ¹³C record from the northern Bay of Bengal, representing the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (G-B-M) river catchment. In combination with a seawater salinity record, our results show that ISM intensity broadly follows summer insolation on orbital scales, but ISM intensity during the Last Interglacial was lower than during the Holocene despite higher summer insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that sustained warmer sea surface temperature in the equatorial and tropical Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial increased convective rainfall above the ocean but dampened ISM intensity on land. Our study demonstrates that besides solar insolation, internal climatic feedbacks also play an important role for South Asian monsoon variability during warm climate states. This work can help to improve future climate model projections and highlights the importance of understanding controls of monsoonal rainfall under interglacial boundary conditions.

Hemisphere-asymmetric tropical cyclones response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

How anthropogenic forcing could change tropical cyclones (TCs) is a keen societal concern owing to its significant socio-economic impacts. However, a global picture of the anthropogenic aerosol effect on TCs has not yet emerged. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol emission can reduce northern hemisphere (NH) TCs but increase southern hemisphere (SH) TCs primarily through altering vertical wind shear and mid-tropospheric upward motion in the TC formation zones. These circulation changes are driven by anthropogenic aerosol-induced NH-cooler-than-SH and NH-increased versus SH-decreased meridional (equator to mid-latitudes) temperature gradients. The cooler NH produces a low-level southward cross-equatorial transport of moist static energy, weakening the NH ascent in the TC formation zones; meanwhile, the increased meridional temperature gradients strengthen vertical wind shear, reducing NH TC genesis. The opposite is true for the SH. The results may help to constrain the models' uncertainty in the future TC projection. Reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emission may increase the NH TCs threat.

Projected changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration across Indus River Basin at 1.5-3.0 °C warming levels using CMIP6-GCMs

The projections of mean temperature, precipitation (P), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) reflect the probabilities of long-term changes of hydrologic processes and induced extreme events. In this paper, we investigated the future changes in some pivotal climatic variables (mean temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration) under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C specific warming levels (SWLs) across the Indus River Basin of South Asia. The seven global climate models output under seven different emission scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5) from the latest Sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used for this purpose. The Penman-Monteith approach is applied to estimate PET, and the water balance equation is for reflecting water surplus/deficit. Results indicate that except for precipitation, the greater increases in temperature and PET are inclined to happen with continued global warming. The highest increase in temperature is accounted for 14.6% (2.4 °C), and the enhanced PET is estimated at 5.2% higher than the reference period (1995-2014) under 3.0 °C SWL. While the precipitation is projected to increase by the highest 4.8% for 2.0 °C warming level. The differences in regional climate for an additional 0.5 °C (2.0-1.5 °C) and 1.0 °C (3.0-2.0 °C) of warming, the temperature is projected to increase by 0.4 °C and 0.9 °C in the entire IRB respectively. The highest increase in mean temperature (5.1%) and PET (2.4%) in the IRB are predicted to intensify for an additional 1.0 °C than that of 0.5 °C of warming, but precipitation is intended to decrease by 0.4%. Spatially, the increase in temperature, precipitation, and PET are dominated towards high elevation in the upper basin (north) under all the SWLs. The increased variability in climatological parameters across IRB depicts an evident occurrence of both wet events (upper basin) as well as dry events (lower basin) with the increase in global average temperature rise. However, these findings provide an insightful basis for water resource management as well as initiating mitigation and adaptation measures in the IRB related to water surplus (floods) and water deficit (droughts).

ENSO modulates wildfire activity in China

China is a key region for understanding fire activity and the drivers of its variability under strict fire suppression policies. Here, we present a detailed fire occurrence dataset for China, the Wildfire Atlas of China (WFAC; 2005-2018), based on continuous monitoring from multiple satellites and calibrated against field observations. We find that wildfires across China mostly occur in the winter season from January to April and those fire occurrences generally show a decreasing trend after reaching a peak in 2007. Most wildfires (84%) occur in subtropical China, with two distinct clusters in its southwestern and southeastern parts. In southeastern China, wildfires are mainly promoted by low precipitation and high diurnal temperature ranges, the combination of which dries out plant tissue and fuel. In southwestern China, wildfires are mainly promoted by warm conditions that enhance evaporation from litter and dormant plant tissues. We further find a fire occurrence dipole between southwestern and southeastern China that is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Anthropogenic Impact on Beach Heterogeneity within a Littoral Cell (Northern Tuscany, Italy)

In this paper the evolution of the Northern Tuscany littoral cell is documented through a detailed analysis of the increasing anthropogenic pressure since the beginning of the 20th century. This sector of the Tuscany coast has been experiencing strong erosion effects that resulted in the loss of large volumes of sandy beaches. The anthropogenic impact on natural processes have been intensified by the construction of two ports in the early decades of the 20th century. Competent authorities reacted by building hard protection structures that tried to fix the position of the shoreline but offset the erosion drive downdrift. Therefore, in the last 20 years a regional Plan was undertaken to gradually replace the hard defense schemes with a softer approach, which involved a massive use of sediment redistribution activities. Many nourishments have been done ever since, using both sand and gravel. All these hard and soft protection operations have been archived in a geodatabase, and visualized in maps that clearly show the progressive change from hard to soft defense. This database may improve the approach to any future analysis of the littoral cell both in terms of research and management, while providing a practical example that may be easily replicated elsewhere.

Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature

Climate changes are due to anthropogenic factors, volcano eruptions and the natural variability of the Earth’s system. Herein the natural variability of the global surface temperature is modeled using a set of harmonics spanning from the inter-annual to the millennial scales. The model is supported by the following considerations: (1) power spectrum evaluations show 11 spectral peaks (from the sub-decadal to the multi-decadal scales) above the 99% confidence level of the known temperature uncertainty; (2) spectral coherence analysis between the independent global surface temperature periods 1861–1937 and 1937–2013 highlights at least eight common frequencies between 2- and 20-year periods; (3) paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions during the Holocene present secular to millennial oscillations. The millennial oscillation was responsible for the cooling observed from the Medieval Warm Period (900–1400) to the Little Ice Age (1400–1800) and, on average, could have caused about 50% of the warming observed since 1850. The finding implies an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.0–2.3 °C for CO2 doubling likely centered around 1.5 °C. This low sensitivity to radiative forcing agrees with the conclusions of recent studies. Semi-empirical models since 1000 A.D. are developed using 13 identified harmonics (representing the natural variability of the climate system) and a climatic function derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble mean simulation (representing the mean greenhouse gas—GHG, aerosol, and volcano temperature contributions) scaled under the assumption of an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C. The harmonic model is evaluated using temperature data from 1850 to 2013 to test its ability to predict the major temperature patterns observed in the record from 2014 to 2020. In the short, medium, and long time scales the semi-empirical models predict: (1) temperature maxima in 2015–2016 and 2020, which is confirmed by the 2014–2020 global temperature record; (2) a relatively steady global temperature from 2000 to 2030–2040; (3) a 2000–2100 mean projected global warming of about 1 °C. The semi-empirical model reconstructs accurately the historical surface temperature record since 1850 and hindcasts mean surface temperature proxy reconstructions since the medieval period better than the model simulation that is unable to simulate the Medieval Warm Period.

A tree-ring δ18O based reconstruction of East Asia summer monsoon over the past two centuries

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable decadal variations since the late 20th century. Efforts to examine long-term behaviors and dynamics of the EASM are impeded largely due to the shortness of instrumental meteorological records. So far, reconstructions of the EASM with annual resolution from its core regions remain limited. We conduct the first 200-year robust EASM reconstruction based on tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O records derived from Pinus massoniana trees growing in the middle Yangtze River basin, one of the core EASM areas. The δ¹⁸O chronology accounts for 46.2% of the actual variation in an index of the EASM from 1948 to 2014. The reconstructed EASM indicates that the monsoon intensity was below average before the 1950s, peaked in the 1950s-1970s, and then began to decline. The reconstructed EASM is negatively correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this teleconnection is dynamic through time, i.e. enhanced (reduced) ENSO variability coheres with strong (weak) EASM-ENSO connections. In addition, despite high ENSO variability since the 1980s, the EASM-ENSO relationship weakened possibly due to anthropogenic impact, particularly aerosol emissions.

A comparison of haze pollution variability in China using haze indices based on observations

Defining the occurrence and degree of haze pollution (HP) in China has been extremely controversial in recent years. This study elaborates on the meanings of ten most frequently used HP indices based on observation and compares their performance in measuring the HP variability in China concerning the annual cycle, interannual variations and interdecadal trends for the period of 1980-2015. It is found that these indices exhibit a high consistency in South China, while apparent discrepancies exist in North Chinam, Sichuan Basin and the Yangtze River Delta. Observed surface PM_2.5 concentration is utilized to assess the performance of the ten HP indices. Results show that some of these indices can well capture primary features of the HP in some specific area, only these defined by a daily averaged value or 14:00 single threshold value have relatively good performance in the whole Eastern China. Such four indices (HPI2/HPI3/HPI4/HPI5) exhibit high consistence in depicting spatial-temporal variations (from annual cycle to interannual variability) of surface PM_2.5 concentration over China, meaning they can highlight the significance of high aerosol concentration in triggering HP events. Moreover, further analysis suggest that the contributions of weather conditions to the occurrence and degree of the HP is becoming more in China, especially in the NC, SCB, YRD regions. These results provide useful guidance for monitoring variations of the HP in China and for making long-term environmental regulatory and controlling policy.

Prediction of Autumn Precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin Based on Climate Indices

Autumn precipitation (AP) has important impacts on agricultural production, water conservation, and water transportation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB; 25°–35° N and 105°–122° E). We obtain the main empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the interannual variation in AP based on daily precipitation data from 97 stations throughout the MLYRB during 1980–2015. The results show that the first leading EOF mode accounts for 30.83% of the total variation. The spatial pattern shows uniform change over the whole region. The variance contribution of the second mode is 16.13%, and its spatial distribution function shows a north-south phase inversion. Based on previous research and the physical considerations discussed herein, we include 13 climate indices to reveal the major predictors. To obtain an acceptable prediction performance, we comprehensively rank the climate indices, which are sorted according to the values of the new standardized algorithm of information flow (NIF, a causality-based approach) and correlation coefficient (a traditional climate diagnostic tool). Finally, Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (TIOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and other four indicators are chosen as the final predictors affecting the first mode of AP over the MLYRB; NINO3.4 SSTA (NINO3.4), Atlantic-European Circulation E Pattern (AECE), and other four indicators are the major predictors for the second mode. In the final prediction experiment, considering the time series prediction of principal components (PCs) to be a small-sample problem, the Bayesian linear regression (BLR) model is used for the prediction. The experimental results reveal that the BLR model can effectively capture the time series trends of the first two modes (the correlation coefficients are greater than 0.5), and the overall performance is significantly better than that of the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The prediction factors and precipitation prediction results identified in this study can be referenced to rapidly obtain climatological information for AP over the MLYRB and improve the regional prediction of AP elsewhere, which will also help policymakers prepare appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures for future climate change.

Changes in Major Global River Discharges Directed into the Ocean

Under the influence of global climate change, the discharges of major global rivers directed into the ocean have undergone significant changes. To study the trends and causes in discharge variation, we selected 40 large rivers and analyzed their annual discharges near their estuaries from 1960 to 2010. The method of runoff variation attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for large-scale basins was developed, in which influencing factors of human activities and glacial melting factors were added to the formula. The contribution rate of climate factors and human activities to changes in discharge were quantitatively identified. Climatic factors include precipitation, evapotranspiration and glacial melting. Human activity factors include underlying surface and artificial water transfer. The contribution rate is determined by the elastic coefficient, which is obtained by the ratio of change rate of each factor and the change rate of runoff. The results indicated that the discharges predominantly showed downward trends with a few upward trends. Rivers in North America and Africa showed downward trends, and those in Europe principally showed upward trends. Climate was the main influencing factor of discharges changes, and only approximately 25% of river discharges were greatly affected by human activities. River discharges in 75% of the basins which mainly contains subtropical monsoon humid climate and savanna climate zones showed upward trends. In the four basins which are mainly contains tropical rainforest climate and tropical monsoon climate, they all showed downward trends. The trend of discharges in the temperate monsoon climate, temperate continental climate, and temperate maritime climate cannot be accurately judged because of irregular variation. The discharges in the mid-high latitudinal zones predominantly showed upward trends, while those in the mid-low latitudinal zones with the influence of human activities showed downward trends.

Slowdown of the Walker circulation at solar cycle maximum

The Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) fluctuates on interannual and multidecadal timescales under the influence of internal variability and external forcings. Here, we provide observational evidence that the 11-y solar cycle (SC) affects the PWC on decadal timescales. We observe a robust reduction of east-west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following 1-2 y. This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific paired with an eastward shift of convective precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. We show that this is initiated by a thermodynamical response of the global hydrological cycle to surface warming, further amplified by atmosphere-ocean coupling, leading to larger positive ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific than expected from simple radiative forcing considerations. The observed solar modulation of the PWC is supported by a set of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulations forced only by SC irradiance variations. We highlight the importance of a muted hydrology mechanism that acts to weaken the PWC. Demonstration of this mechanism acting on the 11-y SC timescale adds confidence in model predictions that the same mechanism also weakens the PWC under increasing greenhouse gas forcing.

Temporal Variability of Precipitation and Biomass of Alpine Grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

The timing regimes of precipitation can exert profound impacts on grassland ecosystems. However, it is still unclear how the peak aboveground biomass (AGBpeak) of alpine grasslands responds to the temporal variability of growing season precipitation (GSP) on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Here, the temporal variability of precipitation was defined as the number and intensity of precipitation events as well as the time interval between consecutive precipitation events. We conducted annual field measurements of AGBpeak between 2009 and 2016 at four sites that were representative of alpine meadow, meadow-steppe, alpine steppe, and desert-steppe. Thus, an empirical model was established with the time series of the field-measured AGBpeak and the corresponding enhanced vegetation index (EVI) (R2 = 0.78), which was used to estimate grassland AGBpeak at the regional scale. The relative importance of the three indices of the temporal variability of precipitation, events, intensity, and time interval on grassland AGBpeak was quantified by principal component regression and shown in a red–green–blue (RGB) composition map. The standardized importance values were used to calculate the vegetation sensitivity index to the temporal variability of precipitation (VSIP). Our results showed that the standardized VSIP was larger than 60 for only 15% of alpine grassland pixels and that AGBpeak did not change significantly for more than 60% of alpine grassland pixels over the past decades, which was likely due to the nonsignificant changes in the temporal variability of precipitation in most pixels. However, a U-shaped relationship was found between VSIP and GSP across the four representative grassland types, indicating that the sensitivity of grassland AGBpeak to precipitation was dependent on the types of grassland communities. Moreover, we found that the temporal variability of precipitation explained more of the field-measured AGBpeak variance than did the total amount of precipitation alone at the site scale, which implies that the mechanisms underlying how the temporal variability of precipitation controls the AGBpeak of alpine grasslands should be better understood at the local scale. We hypothesize that alpine grassland plants promptly respond to the temporal variability of precipitation to keep community biomass production more stable over time, but this conclusion should be further tested. Finally, we call for a long-term experimental study that includes multiple natural and anthropogenic factors together, such as warming, nitrogen deposition, and grazing and fencing, to better understand the mechanisms of alpine grassland stability on the Tibetan Plateau.

Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: A global synthesis

Climate-change assessments project increasing precipitation variability through increased frequency of extreme events. However, the effects of interannual precipitation variance per se on ecosystem functioning have been largely understudied. Here, we report on the effects of interannual precipitation variability on the primary production of global drylands, which include deserts, steppes, shrublands, grasslands, and prairies and cover about 40% of the terrestrial earth surface. We used a global database that has 43 datasets, which are uniformly distributed in parameter space and each has at least 10 years of data. We found (a) that at the global scale, precipitation variability has a negative effect on aboveground net primary production. (b) Expected increases in interannual precipitation variability for the year 2,100 may result in a decrease of up to 12% of the global terrestrial carbon sink. (c) The effect of precipitation interannual variability on dryland productivity changes from positive to negative along a precipitation gradient. Arid sites with mean precipitation under 300 mm/year responded positively to increases in precipitation variability, whereas sites with mean precipitation over 300 mm/year responded negatively. We propose three complementary mechanisms to explain this result: (a) concave-up and concave-down precipitation-production relationships in arid vs. humid systems, (b) shift in the distribution of water in the soil profile, and (c) altered frequency of positive and negative legacies. Our results demonstrated that enhanced precipitation variability will have direct impacts on global drylands that can potentially affect the future terrestrial carbon sink.

Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

The variability and mechanisms of multi-decadal megadroughts over eastern China during the last millennium were investigated using a control, full-forcing, and four sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) archive. The model simulated megadroughts have comparable magnitudes and durations with those derived from reconstructed proxy data, although the megadroughts are not temporally synchronous. In all experiments, the megadroughts exhibit similar spatial structures, corresponding to a weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) and a strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM). The results show that internal climate variability within the coupled climate system plays an essential role in triggering megadroughts, while different external forcings may contribute to persistence and modify the anomaly patterns of megadroughts. A pattern of meridional tripolar (warm-cold-warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western Pacific stretching from the equator to high latitude is responsible for the EASM weakening and EAWM strengthening. The weakening of the EASM and strengthening of the EAWM are essentially caused by negative SST anomalies over the northwestern Pacific and positive SST anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific, which are associated with a La Niña-like SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. The external forcings prolong the megadroughts through maintenance of the meridional tripolar SST anomalies and enlarge the megadrought spatial extent by magnifying the meridional tripolar SST anomalies.

An observation-based perspective of winter haze days in four major polluted regions of China

An observation-based approach is used to examine key characteristics of winter haze days in four major polluted regions in China. Major findings in this study are: first, there was no significant trend in the number of winter haze days in most provinces and districts in eastern China from 1973 to 2012, contrary to the 2.5-fold increase in the emissions of particulate matter and its precursors (PM emissions) in the same period of time. Second, meteorological and climate conditions rather than PM emissions are in control of the interannual variabilities and trends of winter haze days. These interannual variabilities (ranging from 24 to 125%) pose a substantial masking effect that must be overcome by any control of PM emissions before its impact becomes statistically detectable. Finally, we find that global warming may have contributed significantly to the trend of winter haze days in eastern China.

Abnormal increase of Mn and TP concentrations in a temperate reservoir during fall overturn due to drought-induced drawdown

Due to global warming, some regions of Earth may face frequent and severe droughts in the future, leading to the deterioration of surface water quality. In this study, we investigated the effects of drought-induced drawdown on the water quality of the Zhoucun Reservoir, Shandong Province, East China, during the fall overturn. Field surveys were conducted during stratification (April-November) over three standard years 2012, 2013, and 2014, and over the El Niño event of 2015. Temporal and vertical variations of the physical and chemical indexes were investigated during monitoring. Results show that after the formation of stratification, the hypolimnion rapidly shifted to anaerobic conditions, with the accumulation of pollutants such as manganese (Mn) and total phosphorous (TP). Due to the extreme El Niño event in 2015, both the upper and lower metalimnion limits moved down along with the water level in summer, which resulted in the transfer of hypolimnion water to the metalimnion. In summer 2015, large amounts of pollutants were measured in the metalimnion: a phenomenon that did not occur at the same period of the standard years. At the beginning of the overturn in 2015, the water quality of the whole reservoir deteriorated when the metalimnion water shifted to the epilimnion. Mn and TP concentrations in the epilimnion reached 0.202mg/L and 0.086mg/L, respectively, which are significantly higher than those in the standard years. Although the tributary rivers entered the epilimnion of the reservoir during the overturn, Mn and TP concentrations of the inflow were only of 0.049-0.072mg/L and 0.033-0.047mg/L, respectively, indicating that these rivers were not the source of the high TP and high Mn concentrations in the epilimnion. Hence, we conclude that more attention should be paid to the metalimnion position and the vertical distribution of pollutants when studying lakes and reservoirs experiencing droughts.

Direct weakening of tropical circulations from masked CO2 radiative forcing

Climate models robustly simulate weakened mean circulations of the tropical atmosphere in direct response to increased carbon dioxide (CO2). The direct response to CO2, defined by the response to radiative forcing in the absence of changes in sea surface temperature, affects tropical precipitation and tropical cyclone genesis, and these changes have been tied to the weakening of the mean tropical circulation. The mechanism underlying this direct CO2-forced circulation change has not been elucidated. Here, I demonstrate that this circulation weakening results from spatial structure in CO2's radiative forcing. In regions of ascending circulation, such as the intertropical convergence zone, the CO2 radiative forcing is reduced, or "masked," by deep-convective clouds and high humidity; in subsiding regions, such as the subtropics, the CO2 radiative forcing is larger because the atmosphere is drier and deep-convective clouds are infrequent. The spatial structure of the radiative forcing reduces the need for the atmosphere to transport energy. This, in turn, weakens the mass overturning of the tropical circulation. The previously unidentified mechanism is demonstrated in a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulation model simulations with altered radiative transfer to suppress the cloud masking of the radiative forcing. The mechanism depends on the climatological distribution of clouds and humidity, rather than uncertain changes in these quantities. Masked radiative forcing thereby offers an explanation for the robustness of the direct circulation weakening under increased CO2.

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ¹⁸O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ¹⁸O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation

The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation

The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the “present” is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7–7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8–5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5–8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

Water security in one blue planet: twenty-first century policy challenges for science

Water-related risks threaten society at the local, national and global scales in our inter-connected and rapidly changing world. Most of the world's poor are deeply water insecure and face intolerable water-related risks associated with complex hydrology. Most of the world's wealthy face lower water-related risks and less complex hydrology. This inverse relationship between hydrological complexity and wealth contributes to a divided world. This must be addressed if global water security is to be achieved. Using a risk-based framework provides the potential to link the current policy-oriented discourse on water security to a new and rigorous science-based approach to the description, measurement, analysis and management of water security. To provide the basis for this science-based approach, we propose an encompassing definition rooted in risk science: water security is a tolerable level of water-related risk to society. Water security policy questions need to be framed so that science can marshal interdisciplinary data and evidence to identify solutions. We join a growing group of scientists in asserting a bold vision for science leadership, calling for a new and comprehensive understanding of the planet's water system and society's water needs.