Laboratory observations of slow earthquakes and the spectrum of tectonic fault slip modes

Experimental evidence of seismic ruptures initiated by aseismic slip

Seismic faults release the stress accumulated during tectonic movement through rapid ruptures or slow-slip events. The role of slow-slip events is crucial as they impact earthquakes occurrence. However, the mechanisms by which slow-slip affects the failure of frictionally locked regions remain elusive. Here, building on laboratory experiments, we establish that a slow-slip region acts as a nucleation center for seismic rupture, enhancing earthquakes' frequency. We emulate slow-slip regions by introducing a granular material along part of a laboratory fault. Measuring the fault's response to shear reveals that the heterogeneity serves as an initial rupture, reducing the fault shear resistance. Additionally, the slow-slip region extends beyond the heterogeneity with increasing normal load, demonstrating that fault composition is not the only requirement for slow-slip. Our results show that slow-slip modifies rupture nucleation dynamics, highlighting the importance of accounting for the evolution of the slow-slip region under varying conditions for seismic hazard mitigation.

Estimating Lab-Quake Source Parameters: Spectral Inversion from a Calibrated Acoustic System

Laboratory acoustic emissions (AEs) serve as small-scale analogues to earthquakes, offering fundamental insights into seismic processes. To ensure accurate physical interpretations of AEs, rigorous calibration of the acoustic system is essential. In this paper, we present an empirical calibration technique that quantifies sensor response, instrumentation effects, and path characteristics into a single entity termed instrument apparatus response. Using a controlled seismic source with different steel balls, we retrieve the instrument apparatus response in the frequency domain under typical experimental conditions for various piezoelectric sensors (PZTs) arranged to simulate a three-component seismic station. Removing these responses from the raw AE spectra allows us to obtain calibrated AE source spectra, which are then effectively used to constrain the seismic AE source parameters. We apply this calibration method to acoustic emissions (AEs) generated during unstable stick-slip behavior of a quartz gouge in double direct shear experiments. The calibrated AEs range in magnitude from -7.1 to -6.4 and exhibit stress drops between 0.075 MPa and 4.29 MPa, consistent with earthquake scaling relation. This result highlights the strong similarities between AEs generated from frictional gouge experiments and natural earthquakes. Through this acoustic emission calibration, we gain physical insights into the seismic sources of laboratory AEs, enhancing our understanding of seismic rupture processes in fault gouge experiments.

A laboratory perspective on accelerating preparatory processes before earthquakes and implications for foreshock detectability

Dynamic failure in the laboratory is commonly preceded by many foreshocks which accompany premonitory aseismic slip. Aseismic slip is also thought to govern earthquake nucleation in nature, yet, foreshocks are rare. Here, we examine how heterogeneity due to different roughness, damage and pore pressures affects premonitory slip and acoustic emission characteristics. High fluid pressures increase stiffness and reduce heterogeneity which promotes more rapid slip acceleration and shorter precursory periods, similar to the effect of low geometric heterogeneity on smooth faults. The associated acoustic emission activity in low-heterogeneity samples becomes increasingly dominated by earthquake-like double-couple focal mechanisms. The similarity of fluid pressure increase and roughness reduction suggests that increased stress and geometric homogeneity may substantially shorten the duration of foreshock activity. Gradual fault activation and extended foreshock activity is more likely observable on immature faults at shallow depth.

Earthquake energy dissipation in a fracture mechanics framework

Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature and quantity of the energy dissipation involved in the rupture process. Here, we present the challenges associated with defining and measuring the energy dissipation in laboratory and natural earthquakes across many scales. We discuss the importance and implications of distinguishing between energy dissipation that occurs close to and far behind the rupture tip, and we identify open scientific questions related to a consistent modeling framework for earthquake physics that extends beyond classical Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics.

High time-resolved studies of stick-slip show similar dilatancy to fast and slow earthquakes

Fast and slow earthquakes are two modes of energy release by the slip in tectonic fault rupture. Although fast and slow slips were observed in the laboratory stick-slip experiments, due to the sampling rate limitation, the details of the fault thickness variation were poorly understood. Especially, why a single fault would show different modes of slip remains elusive. Herein, we report on ring shear experiments with an ultrahigh sampling rate (10 MHz) that illuminate the different physical processes between fast and slow slip events. We show that the duration of slips ranged from dozens to hundreds of milliseconds. Fast slip events are characterized by continuous large-amplitude AE (acoustic emission) and somewhat intricate variation of the sample thickness: A short compaction pulse during the rapid release of stress is followed by dilation and vibrations of the sample thickness. As the slip ends, the thickness of the sample first recovers by slow compaction and then dilates again before nucleation of the following slip event. In contrast, during slow slip events, the shear stress reduction is accompanied by intermittent bursts of low-amplitude AE and sample dilation. We observed the detailed thickness variation during slips and found that dilation occurs during both fast and slow slips, which is consistent with natural observations of coseismic dilatation. This study may be used to reveal the mechanism of fault slips during fast and slow earthquakes, which explain the potential effect of fast and slow slips on stress redistribution and structural rearrangement in faults.

Subducting volcaniclastic-rich upper crust supplies fluids for shallow megathrust and slow slip

Recurring slow slip along near-trench megathrust faults occurs at many subduction zones, but for unknown reasons, this process is not universal. Fluid overpressures are implicated in encouraging slow slip; however, links between slow slip, fluid content, and hydrogeology remain poorly known in natural systems. Three-dimensional seismic imaging and ocean drilling at the Hikurangi margin reveal a widespread and previously unknown fluid reservoir within the extensively hydrated (up to 47 vol % H2O) volcanic upper crust of the subducting Hikurangi Plateau large igneous province. This ~1.5 km thick volcaniclastic upper crust readily dewaters with subduction but retains half of its fluid content upon reaching regions with well-characterized slow slip. We suggest that volcaniclastic-rich upper crust at volcanic plateaus and seamounts is a major source of water that contributes to the fluid budget in subduction zones and may drive fluid overpressures along the megathrust that give rise to frequent shallow slow slip.

Foreshock properties illuminate nucleation processes of slow and fast laboratory earthquakes

Understanding the connection between seismic activity and the earthquake nucleation process is a fundamental goal in earthquake seismology with important implications for earthquake early warning systems and forecasting. We use high-resolution acoustic emission (AE) waveform measurements from laboratory stick-slip experiments that span a spectrum of slow to fast slip rates to probe spatiotemporal properties of laboratory foreshocks and nucleation processes. We measure waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel-times (DTT) between AEs throughout the seismic cycle. AEs broadcasted prior to slow labquakes have small DTT and high waveform similarity relative to fast labquakes. We show that during slow stick-slip, the fault never fully locks, and waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel times do not evolve throughout the seismic cycle. In contrast, fast laboratory earthquakes are preceded by a rapid increase in waveform similarity late in the seismic cycle and a reduction in differential travel times, indicating that AEs begin to coalesce as the fault slip velocity increases leading up to failure. These observations point to key differences in the nucleation process of slow and fast labquakes and suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of laboratory foreshocks is linked to fault slip velocity.

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

Laboratory earthquakes decipher control and stability of rupture speeds

Earthquakes are destructive natural hazards with damage capacity dictated by rupture speeds. Traditional dynamic rupture models predict that earthquake ruptures gradually accelerate to the Rayleigh wave speed with some of them further jumping to stable supershear speeds above the Eshelby speed (~[Formula: see text] times S wave speed). However, the 2018 M_w 7.5 Palu earthquake, among several others, significantly challenges such a viewpoint. Here we generate spontaneous shear ruptures on laboratory faults to confirm that ruptures can indeed attain steady subRayleigh or supershear propagation speeds immediately following nucleation. A self-similar analysis of dynamic rupture confirms our observation, leading to a simple model where the rupture speed is uniquely dependent on a driving load. Our results reproduce and explain a number of enigmatic field observations on earthquake speeds, including the existence of stable subEshelby supershear ruptures, early onset of supershear ruptures, and the correlation between the rupture speed and the driving load.

Numerical investigation of the effect of fluid pressurization rate on laboratory-scale injection-induced fault slip

The effect of normal stress variations on fault frictional strength has been extensively characterized in laboratory experiments and modelling studies based on a rate-and-state-dependent fault friction formalism. However, the role of pore pressure changes during injection-induced fault reactivation and associated frictional phenomena is still not well understood. We apply rate-and-state friction (RSF) theory in finite element models to investigate the effect of fluid pressurization rate on fault (re)activation and on the resulting frictional slip characteristics at the laboratory scale. We consider a stepwise injection scenario where each fluid injection cycle consists of a fluid pressurization phase followed by a constant fluid pressure phase. We first calibrate our model formulation to recently published laboratory results of injection-driven shear slip experiments. In a second stage, we perform a parametric study by varying fluid pressurization rates to cover a higher dimensional parameter space. We demonstrate that, for high permeability laboratory samples, the energy release rate associated with fault reactivation can be effectively controlled by a stepwise fluid injection scheme, i.e. by the applied fluid pressurization rate and the duration of the constant pressure phase between each successive fluid pressurization phase. We observe a gradual transition from fault creep to slow stick-slip as the fluid pressurization rate increases. Furthermore, computed peak velocities for an extended range of fluid pressurization rate scenarios (0.5 MPa/min to 10 MPa/min) indicate a non-linear (power-law) relationship between the imposed fluid pressurization rate and the peak slip velocities, and consequently with the energy release rate, for scenarios with a fluid pressurization rate higher than a critical value of 4 MPa/min. We also observe that higher pressurization rates cause a delay in the stress release by the fault. We therefore argue that by adopting a stepwise fluid injection scheme with lower fluid pressurization rates may provide the operator with a better control over potential induced seismicity. The implications for field-scale applications that we can derive from our study are limited by the high matrix and fault permeability of the selected sample and the direct hydraulic connection between the injection well and the fault, which may not necessarily represent the conditions typical for fracture dominated deep geothermal reservoirs. Nevertheless, our results can serve as a basis for further laboratory experiments and field-scale modelling studies focused on better understanding the impact of stepwise injection protocols on fluid injection-induced seismicity.

Ultralow frictional healing explains recurring slow slip events

Plate motion on shallow subduction megathrusts is accommodated by a spectrum of tectonic slip modes. However, the frictional properties and conditions that sustain these diverse slip behaviors remain enigmatic. Frictional healing is one such property, which describes the degree of fault restrengthening between earthquakes. We show that the frictional healing rate of materials entrained along the megathrust at the northern Hikurangi margin, which hosts well-characterized recurring shallow slow slip events (SSEs), is nearly zero (<0.0001 per decade). These low healing rates provide a mechanism for the low stress drops (<50 kilopascals) and short recurrence times (1 to 2 years) characteristic of shallow SSEs at Hikurangi and other subduction margins. We suggest that near-zero frictional healing rates, associated with weak phyllosilicates that are common in subduction zones, may promote frequent, small-stress-drop, slow ruptures near the trench.

Integrated rupture mechanics for slow slip events and earthquakes

Slow slip events occur worldwide and could trigger devastating earthquakes, yet it is still debated whether their moment-duration scaling is linear or cubic and a fundamental model unifying slow and fast earthquakes is still lacking. Here, we show that the rupture propagation of simulated slow and fast earthquakes can be predicted by a newly-developed three-dimensional theory of dynamic fracture mechanics accounting for finite rupture width, an essential ingredient missing in previous theories. The complete spectrum of rupture speeds is controlled by the ratio of fracture energy to energy release rate. Shear stress heterogeneity can produce a cubic scaling on a single fault while effective normal stress variability produces a linear scaling on a population of faults, which reconciles the debated scaling relations. This model provides a new framework to explain how slow slip might lead to earthquakes and opens new avenues for seismic hazard assessment integrating seismological, laboratory and theoretical developments.

Creep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering

Earthquakes occur in clusters or sequences that arise from complex triggering mechanisms, but direct measurement of the slow subsurface slip responsible for delayed triggering is rarely possible. We investigate the origins of complexity and its relationship to heterogeneity using an experimental fault with two dominant seismic asperities. The fault is composed of quartz powder, a material common to natural faults, sandwiched between 760 mm long polymer blocks that deform the way 10 meters of rock would behave. We observe periodic repeating earthquakes that transition into aperiodic and complex sequences of fast and slow events. Neighboring earthquakes communicate via migrating slow slip, which resembles creep fronts observed in numerical simulations and on tectonic faults. Utilizing both local stress measurements and numerical simulations, we observe that the speed and strength of creep fronts are highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes, and may serve as on-fault stress meters.

The Influence of Roughness on Experimental Fault Mechanical Behavior and Associated Microseismicity

Fault surfaces are rough at all scales, and this significantly affects fault-slip behavior. However, roughness is only occasionally considered experimentally and then often in experiments imposing a low-slip velocity, corresponding to the initiation stage of the earthquake cycle. Here, the effect of roughness on earthquake nucleation up to runaway slip is investigated through a series of dry load-stepping biaxial experiments performed on bare rock surfaces with a variety of roughnesses. These laboratory faults reached slip velocities of at least 100 mm/s. Acoustic emissions were located during deformation on bare rock surfaces in a biaxial apparatus during load-stepping experiments for the first time. Smooth surfaces showed more frequent slip instabilities accompanied by slip bursts and larger stress drops than rough faults. Smooth surfaces reached higher slip velocities and were less inclined to display velocity-strengthening behavior. The recorded and localized acoustic emissions were characterized by a greater proportion of large-magnitude events, and therefore likely a higher Gutenberg-Richter b GR-value, for smoother samples, while the cumulative seismic moment was similar for all roughnesses. These experiments shed light on how local microscopic heterogeneity associated with surface topography can influence the macroscopic stability of frictional interfaces and the associated microseismicity. They further provide a laboratory demonstration of roughness' ability to induce stress barriers, which can halt rupture, a phenomenon previously shown numerically.

Research on instability characteristics and precursory effect of coal-rock parting-coal structures

The slip and instability mechanisms of coal-rock parting-coal structures under uniaxial loading conditions were investigated using experiments and case verification. The slip and the corresponding precursors were described by monitoring the displacement, strain, and acoustic emissions (AEs) of coal and rock parting blocks during testing, and the experimental results were verified by analyzing the microseismic (MS) effects during the working face advancing in a coal seam bifurcation area. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) each slip of the discontinuities sandwiched between coal and rock parting produced shear and tensile cracks, but the shear cracks was dominant; (2) for the instability mode that was characterized by low peak stress, high energy release, and a stable b value of AE, each slip corresponds to a peak frequency of AE, which can reveal the final instability mode; (3) the sudden drop in the fault total area of AE can be regarded as a precursor for the warning fracture or slip instability of a discontinuity; and (4) the MS events in the coal seam bifurcation area were mainly characterized by a wide frequency and high amplitude, especially near the coal bifurcation line, where there were obvious characteristics of low-frequency shear fracture for the MS events. This study is relevant for the early warning of coal-rock dynamic disasters triggered by the slip, fracture, and instability of coal-rock parting compound structures in coal mines.

The High-Frequency Signature of Slow and Fast Laboratory Earthquakes

Tectonic faults fail through a spectrum of slip modes, ranging from slow aseismic creep to rapid slip during earthquakes. Understanding the seismic radiation emitted during these slip modes is key for advancing earthquake science and earthquake hazard assessment. In this work, we use laboratory friction experiments instrumented with ultrasonic sensors to document the seismic radiation properties of slow and fast laboratory earthquakes. Stick-slip experiments were conducted at a constant loading rate of 8 μm/s and the normal stress was systematically increased from 7 to 15 MPa. We produced a full spectrum of slip modes by modulating the loading stiffness in tandem with the fault zone normal stress. Acoustic emission data were recorded continuously at 5 MHz. We demonstrate that the full continuum of slip modes radiate measurable high-frequency energy between 100 and 500 kHz, including the slowest events that have peak fault slip rates <100 μm/s. The peak amplitude of the high-frequency time-domain signals scales systematically with fault slip velocity. Stable sliding experiments further support the connection between fault slip rate and high-frequency radiation. Experiments demonstrate that the origin of the high-frequency energy is fundamentally linked to changes in fault slip rate, shear strain, and breaking of contact junctions within the fault gouge. Our results suggest that having measurements close to the fault zone may be key for documenting seismic radiation properties and fully understanding the connection between different slip modes.

The source scaling and seismic productivity of slow slip transients

Slow slip events (SSEs) represent a slow faulting process leading to aseismic strain release often accompanied by seismic tremor or earthquake swarms. The larger SSEs last longer and are often associated with intense and energetic tremor activity, suggesting that aseismic slip controls tremor genesis. A similar pattern has been observed for SSEs that trigger earthquake swarms, although no comparative studies exist on the source parameters of SSEs and tremor or earthquake swarms. We analyze the source scaling of SSEs and associated tremor- or swarm-like seismicity through our newly compiled dataset. We find a correlation between the aseismic and seismic moment release indicating that the shallower SSEs produce larger seismic moment release than deeper SSEs. The scaling may arise from the heterogeneous frictional and rheological properties of faults prone to SSEs and is mainly controlled by temperature. Our results indicate that similar physical phenomena govern tremor and earthquake swarms during SSEs.

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab-based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time-to-failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active-source seismic data, which probe asperity-scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P-wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to "learn" about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics-informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

Nonlocal Effects Reflect the Jamming Criticality in Frictionless Granular Flows Down Inclines

The jamming transition is accompanied by a rich phenomenology such as hysteresis or nonlocal effects that is still not well understood. Here, we experimentally investigate a model frictionless granular layer flowing down an inclined plane as a way to disentangle generic collective effects from those arising from frictional interactions. We find that thin frictionless granular layers are devoid of hysteresis of the avalanche angle, yet the layer stability increases as it gets thinner. Steady rheological laws obtained for different layer thicknesses can be collapsed into a unique master curve, supporting the idea that nonlocal effects are the consequence of the usual finite-size effects associated with the presence of a critical point. This collapse indicates that the so-called isostatic length l^{*}, the scale on which pinning a boundary freezes all remaining floppy modes, governs the effect of boundaries on flow and rules out other propositions made in the past.

Fracture asperity evolution during the transition from stick slip to stable sliding

Fracture asperities interlock or break during stick slip and ride over each other during stable sliding. The evolution of fracture asperities during the transition between stick slip and stable sliding has attracted less attention, but is important to predict fracture behaviour. Here, we conduct a series of direct shear experiments on simulated fractures in homogeneous polycarbonate to examine the evolution of fracture asperities in the transition stage. Our results show that the transition stage occurs between the stick slip and stable sliding stages during the progressive reduction in normal stress on the smooth and rough fractures. Both the fractures exhibit the alternative occurrence of small and large shear stress drops followed by the deterministic chaos in the transition stage. Our data indicate that the asperity radius of curvature correlates linearly with the dimensionless contact area under a given normal stress. For the rough fracture, a bifurcation of acoustic energy release appears when the dimensionless contact area decreases in the transition stage. The evolution of fracture asperities is stress-dependent and velocity-dependent. This article is part of the theme issue 'Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe'.

Is complex fault zone behaviour a reflection of rheological heterogeneity?

Fault slip speeds range from steady plate boundary creep through to earthquake slip. Geological descriptions of faults range from localized displacement on one or more discrete planes, through to distributed shearing flow in tabular zones of finite thickness, indicating a large range of possible strain rates in natural faults. We review geological observations and analyse numerical models of two-phase shear zones to discuss the degree and distribution of fault zone heterogeneity and effects on active fault slip style. There must be certain conditions that produce earthquakes, creep and slip at intermediate velocities. Because intermediate slip styles occur over large ranges in temperature, the controlling conditions must be effects of fault properties and/or other dynamic variables. We suggest that the ratio of bulk driving stress to frictional yield strength, and viscosity contrasts within the fault zone, are critical factors. While earthquake nucleation requires the frictional yield to be reached, steady viscous flow requires conditions far from the frictional yield. Intermediate slip speeds may arise when driving stress is sufficient to nucleate local frictional failure by stress amplification, or local frictional yield is lowered by fluid pressure, but such failure is spatially limited by surrounding shear zone stress heterogeneity. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity

Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

Recently triggered seismic events such as the Pohang earthquake have exceeded predictions of average energy releases by a factor of 1000. A new framework is proposed to define maximum event magnitudes as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume.

Initial effective stress controls the nature of earthquakes

Modern geophysics highlights that the slip behaviour response of faults is variable in space and time and can result in slow or fast ruptures. However, the origin of this variation of the rupture velocity in nature as well as the physics behind it is still debated. Here, we first highlight how the different types of fault slip observed in nature appear to stem from the same physical mechanism. Second, we reproduce at the scale of the laboratory the complete spectrum of rupture velocities observed in nature. Our results show that the rupture velocity can range from a few millimetres to kilometres per second, depending on the available energy at the onset of slip, in agreement with theoretical predictions. This combined set of observations bring a new explanation of the dominance of slow rupture fronts in the shallow part of the crust or in areas suspected to present large fluid pressure.

Acoustic Energy Release During the Laboratory Seismic Cycle: Insights on Laboratory Earthquake Precursors and Prediction

Machine learning can predict the timing and magnitude of laboratory earthquakes using statistics of acoustic emissions. The evolution of acoustic energy is critical for lab earthquake prediction; however, the connections between acoustic energy and fault zone processes leading to failure are poorly understood. Here, we document in detail the temporal evolution of acoustic energy during the laboratory seismic cycle. We report on friction experiments for a range of shearing velocities, normal stresses, and granular particle sizes. Acoustic emission data are recorded continuously throughout shear using broadband piezo-ceramic sensors. The coseismic acoustic energy release scales directly with stress drop and is consistent with concepts of frictional contact mechanics and time-dependent fault healing. Experiments conducted with larger grains (10.5 μm) show that the temporal evolution of acoustic energy scales directly with fault slip rate. In particular, the acoustic energy is low when the fault is locked and increases to a maximum during coseismic failure. Data from traditional slide-hold-slide friction tests confirm that acoustic energy release is closely linked to fault slip rate. Furthermore, variations in the true contact area of fault zone particles play a key role in the generation of acoustic energy. Our data show that acoustic radiation is related primarily to breaking/sliding of frictional contact junctions, which suggests that machine learning-based laboratory earthquake prediction derives from frictional weakening processes that begin very early in the seismic cycle and well before macroscopic failure.

Recurrence analysis of slow-fast systems

Many complex systems exhibit periodic oscillations comprising slow-fast timescales. In such slow-fast systems, the slow and fast timescales compete to determine the dynamics. In this study, we perform a recurrence analysis on simulated signals from paradigmatic model systems as well as signals obtained from experiments, each of which exhibit slow-fast oscillations. We find that slow-fast systems exhibit characteristic patterns along the diagonal lines in the corresponding recurrence plot (RP). We discern that the hairpin trajectories in the phase space lead to the formation of line segments perpendicular to the diagonal line in the RP for a periodic signal. Next, we compute the recurrence networks (RNs) of these slow-fast systems and uncover that they contain additional features such as clustering and protrusions on top of the closed-ring structure. We show that slow-fast systems and single timescale systems can be distinguished by computing the distance between consecutive state points on the phase space trajectory and the degree of the nodes in the RNs. Such a recurrence analysis substantially strengthens our understanding of slow-fast systems, which do not have any accepted functional forms.

On the Mechanism of Laboratory Earthquake Nucleation Highlighted by Acoustic Emission

Dynamics of granular media is the key to understanding behavior of many natural systems. In this work we concentrate on studying regularities of deformation of a gouge-filled fault. Confined granular layer – model fault – subjected to an external stress may display sudden slip owing to rearrangement of the granular layer. In nature fast slip along a fault results in an earthquake. To understand fault behavior better, we have conducted a comprehensive analysis of acoustic emission (AE) data that accompany stick-slip in granular media. Here we reveal and trace the emergence of two populations of AE. The first one is characterized by a waveform with a harsh onset, while the second one exhibits a gradual amplitude rise and a tremor-like waveform. During a regular stick-slip the statistical properties of the first population remains intact. The second one is very sensitive to alterations of stress conditions, and its scaling parameters correlate with the change of mechanical characteristics of the fault. Probably, AE populations were identified corresponding to two gouge-filled fault subsystems – a load-bearing granular network and an ensemble of relatively unloaded grains in the granular layer. The detected regularities point to a compound self-organization processes in fault zones and suggest that the final stage of earthquake preparation can be revealed in analyzing the scaling characteristics of seismic-acoustic data.

Experimental analysis of the stick-slip characteristics of faults at different loading rates

In deep underground engineering, in a large spatial, high-stress environment, rapid excavation is likely to affect the loading rate of the fault structure and to cause stick-slip. In this study, an experiment was conducted to explore the stick-slip characteristics at different loading rates. A double-sided shear experiment and the digital speckle correlation method were used to analyze the evolution of the displacement field, the slip displacement, and the slip rate of the fault’s stick-slip activity at different loading rates as well as their correlation with the loading rate. The loading rate, moment magnitude, and stress drop of the fault’s stick-slip and their corresponding relationships were studied. The results show that the occurrence of stick-slip is inversely proportional to the loading rate. The evolution of the fault-slip displacement field at different loading rates is similar. At a given loading rate, the magnitude is positively correlated with the stress drop. The magnitude and stress drop are inversely related to the loading rate.

Slow slip source characterized by lithological and geometric heterogeneity

Slow slip events (SSEs) accommodate a significant proportion of tectonic plate motion at subduction zones, yet little is known about the faults that actually host them. The shallow depth (<2 km) of well-documented SSEs at the Hikurangi subduction zone offshore New Zealand offers a unique opportunity to link geophysical imaging of the subduction zone with direct access to incoming material that represents the megathrust fault rocks hosting slow slip. Two recent International Ocean Discovery Program Expeditions sampled this incoming material before it is entrained immediately down-dip along the shallow plate interface. Drilling results, tied to regional seismic reflection images, reveal heterogeneous lithologies with highly variable physical properties entering the SSE source region. These observations suggest that SSEs and associated slow earthquake phenomena are promoted by lithological, mechanical, and frictional heterogeneity within the fault zone, enhanced by geometric complexity associated with subduction of rough crust.

Across-Fault Velocity Gradients and Slip Behavior of the San Andreas Fault Near Parkfield

A long-lasting question in earthquake physics is why slip on faults occurs as creep or dynamic rupture. We compute passive measurements of the seismic P wave velocity gradient across the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, where this transition of slip mode occurs at a scale of a few kilometers. Unbiased measurements are obtained through the application of a new Bayesian local earthquake tomographic code that avoids the imposition of any user-defined, initial velocity-contrast across the fault, or any damping scheme that may cause biased amplitude in retrieved seismic velocities. We observe that across-fault velocity gradients correlate with the slip behavior of the fault. The P wave velocity contrast decays from 20% in the fault section that experience dynamic rupture to 4% in the creeping section, suggesting that rapid change of material properties and attitude to sustain supra-hydrostatic fluid pressure are conditions for development of dynamic rupture. Low Vp and high Vp/Vs suggest that fault rheology at shallow depth is conversely controlled by low frictional strength material.

Energy-flux control of the steady-state, creep, and dynamic slip modes of faults

Faults exhibit a gamut of slip styles from stable sliding and creep events to earthquakes. These slip styles are affected by the fault properties, e.g., weakening or strengthening, and the properties of the loading system. Here, we investigate the poorly understood effect of energy-flux to the fault that should equal or exceed the energy-dissipation-rate along the slipping fault. We explore the relationship between energy-flux and slip style in shear experiments along granite and diorite laboratory faults, during which the faults were subjected to controlled energy-flux, and responded spontaneously to it. The monitored evolution of slip-velocity, shear stress, and slip-distance revealed three slip styles that depend on the applied energy-flux: (1) steady-state slip; (2) spontaneous creep events of small displacement with negligible weakening; and (3) spontaneous, unstable events with slip-velocities up to 0.8 m/s, slip-distances up to 0.5 m, and stress-drops up to 1 MPa, which are comparable to observed values of moderate earthquakes. These slip styles are similar in character to those observed along natural faults. We further propose that the rate of energy flow from crustal blocks can control the slip velocity during earthquakes.

Deep Transient Slow Slip Detected by Survey GPS in the Region of Atacama, Chile

We detected a long-term transient deformation signal between 2014 and 2016 in the Atacama region (Chile) using survey Global Positioning System (GPS) observations. Over an ∼150 km along-strike region, survey GPS measurements in 2014 and 2016 deviate significantly from the interseismic trend estimated using previous observations. This deviation from steady state deformation is spatially coherent and reveals a horizontal westward diverging motion of several centimeters, along with a significant uplift. It is confirmed by continuous measurements of recently installed GPS stations. We discard instrumental, hydrological, oceanic, or atmospheric loading effects and show that the transient is likely due to deep slow slip in the transition zone of the subduction interface (∼40- to 60-km depth). In addition, daily observations recorded by a continuous GPS station operating between 2002 and 2015 highlight similar transient signals in 2005 and 2009, suggesting a recurrent pattern.

Dynamic earthquake rupture preserved in a creeping serpentinite shear zone

Laboratory experiments on serpentinite suggest that extreme dynamic weakening at earthquake slip rates is accompanied by amorphisation, dehydration and possible melting. However, hypotheses arising from experiments remain untested in nature, because earthquake ruptures have not previously been recognised in serpentinite shear zones. Here we document the progressive formation of high-temperature reaction products that formed by coseismic amorphisation and dehydration in a plate boundary-scale serpentinite shear zone. The highest-temperature products are aggregates of nanocrystalline olivine and enstatite, indicating minimum peak coseismic temperatures of ca. 925 ± 60 °C. Modelling suggests that frictional heating during earthquakes of magnitude 2.7–4 can satisfy the petrological constraints on the coseismic temperature profile, assuming that coseismic fluid storage capacity and permeability are increased by the development of reaction-enhanced porosity. Our results indicate that earthquake ruptures can propagate through serpentinite shear zones, and that the signatures of transient frictional heating can be preserved in the fault rock record.

Creeping serpentinite shear zones may host large earthquakes, but direct evidence of frictional heating and rupture have been missing. Here, the authors demonstrate via laboratory experiments that earthquake ruptures can propagate through serpentinite shear zones shown by high-temperature reaction products.

Traces Of Laboratory Earthquake Nucleation In The Spectrum Of Ambient Noise

The short-term forecast of earthquakes associated with fault rupture is a challenge in seismology and rock mechanics. The evolution of mechanical characteristics of a local fault segment may be encoded in the ambient noise, thus, converting the ambient noise to an efficient source of information about the fault stress-strain conditions. In laboratory experiments we investigate micro-vibrations of a block-fault system induced by weak external disturbances with the purpose of getting reliable evidence of how the system transits to the metastable state. We show that precursory changes of spectral characteristics of micro-vibrations are observed for the complete spectrum of failure modes. In the course of experiments we systematically change the properties of interface to perform the transition from stick-slip to steady sliding and observe the characteristics of micro-vibrations of the laboratory block-fault system. Detected were systematical alterations of the system natural frequency and those alterations were determined by the evolution of fault stiffness. The detected regularities suggest that the final stage of seismic event preparation can be revealed in analyzing the spectral characteristics of ambient noise. The detection of natural oscillations of a block-fault system can be a new useful tool to monitor active faults in real time.

Slow-slip events in semi-brittle serpentinite fault zones

Slow-slip events are earthquake-like events only with much lower slip rates. While peak coseismic velocities can reach tens of meters per second, slow-slip is on the order of 10^−7±2 m/s and may last for days to weeks. Under the rate-and-state model of fault friction, slow-slip is produced only when the asperity size is commensurate with the critical nucleation size, a function of frictional properties. However, it is unlikely that all subduction zones embody the same frictional properties. In addition to friction, plastic flow of antigorite-rich serpentinite may significantly influence the dynamics of fault slip near the mantle wedge corner. Here, we show that the range of frictional parameters that generate slow slip is widened in the presence of a serpentinized layer along the subduction plate interface. We observe increased stability and damping of fast ruptures in a semi-brittle fault zone governed by both brittle and viscoelastic constitutive response. The rate of viscous serpentinite flow, governed by dislocation creep, is enhanced by high ambient temperatures. When effective viscosity is taken to be dynamic, long-term slow slip events spontaneously emerge. Integration of rheology, thermal effects, and other microphysical processes with rate-and-state friction may yield further insight into the phenomenology of slow slip.

Strength of shear bands in fluid-saturated rocks: a nonlinear effect of competition between dilation and fluid flow

This study shows the significant and nonlinear effect of the competition between dilation and fluid flow on the shear strength of constrained shear bands in fluid-saturated rocks. This effect is conditioned by the contribution of the pore pressure to the yield stress and strength. The pore pressure is controlled by the dilation of the pore space in the solid skeleton of the shear band during plastic deformation and by squeezing of pores in surrounding blocks by the dilating shear band due to the high stiffness of the host massif. A generalized equation has been derived to describe the dependence of the shear band strength on the ratio of strain rate to fluid flow rate.

Folded fabric tunes rock deformation and failure mode in the upper crust

The micro-mechanisms of brittle failure affect the bulk mechanical behaviour and permeability of crustal rocks. In low-porosity crystalline rocks, these mechanisms are related to mineralogy and fabric anisotropy, while confining pressure, temperature and strain rates regulate the transition from brittle to ductile behaviour. However, the effects of folded anisotropic fabrics, widespread in orogenic settings, on the mechanical behaviour of crustal rocks are largely unknown. Here we explore the deformation and failure behaviour of a representative folded gneiss, by combining the results of triaxial deformation experiments carried out while monitoring microseismicity with microstructural and damage proxies analyses. We show that folded crystalline rocks in upper crustal conditions exhibit dramatic strength heterogeneity and contrasting failure modes at identical confining pressure and room temperature, depending on the geometrical relationships between stress and two different anisotropies associated to the folded rock fabric. These anisotropies modulate the competition among quartz- and mica-dominated microscopic damage processes, resulting in transitional brittle to semi-brittle modes under P and T much lower than expected. This has significant implications on scales relevant to seismicity, energy resources, engineering applications and geohazards.

Seismic potential of weak, near-surface faults revealed at plate tectonic slip rates

The near-surface areas of major faults commonly contain weak, phyllosilicate minerals, which, based on laboratory friction measurements, are assumed to creep stably. However, it is now known that shallow faults can experience tens of meters of earthquake slip and also host slow and transient slip events. Laboratory experiments are generally performed at least two orders of magnitude faster than plate tectonic speeds, which are the natural driving conditions for major faults; the absence of experimental data for natural driving rates represents a critical knowledge gap. We use laboratory friction experiments on natural fault zone samples at driving rates of centimeters per year to demonstrate that there is abundant evidence of unstable slip behavior that was not previously predicted. Specifically, weak clay-rich fault samples generate slow slip events (SSEs) and have frictional properties favorable for earthquake rupture. Our work explains growing field observations of shallow SSE and surface-breaking earthquake slip, and predicts that such phenomena should be more widely expected.

Precursory changes in seismic velocity for the spectrum of earthquake failure modes

Temporal changes in seismic velocity during the earthquake cycle have the potential to illuminate physical processes associated with fault weakening and connections between the range of fault slip behaviors including slow earthquakes, tremor and low frequency earthquakes1. Laboratory and theoretical studies predict changes in seismic velocity prior to earthquake failure2, however tectonic faults fail in a spectrum of modes and little is known about precursors for those modes3. Here we show that precursory changes of wave speed occur in laboratory faults for the complete spectrum of failure modes observed for tectonic faults. We systematically altered the stiffness of the loading system to reproduce the transition from slow to fast stick-slip and monitored ultrasonic wave speed during frictional sliding. We find systematic variations of elastic properties during the seismic cycle for both slow and fast earthquakes indicating similar physical mechanisms during rupture nucleation. Our data show that accelerated fault creep causes reduction of seismic velocity and elastic moduli during the preparatory phase preceding failure, which suggests that real time monitoring of active faults may be a means to detect earthquake precursors.