A systematic review of meta-analyses assessing the validity of tumour response endpoints as surrogates for progression-free or overall survival in cancer

Surrogate endpoints in phase III randomized trials of advanced gastroesophageal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Overall survival (OS) is the most meaningful endpoint in clinical trials. However, owing to their limitations, surrogate endpoints are commonly used and validation studies are required to assess their reliability. Analysis of phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of advanced gastroesophageal cancer (AGC) with > 100 patients, correlation coefficients (r), and determination coefficients (R²) between OS and surrogates were evaluated through meta-analyses. Progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), and objective response rate (ORR) were examined to determine their correlations with OS. Analysis of 65 phase III RCTs (29,766 subjects) showed a moderate correlation between PFS/TTP and OS (r = 0.77, R² = 0.59), while ORR correlation was low (r = 0.56, R² = 0.31). Excluding immunotherapy trials improved the PFS/TTP and OS correlations (r = 0.83, R² = 0.70). These findings suggest the potential use of PFS/TTP in AGC phase III investigations, disregarding the use of ORR as a surrogate endpoint.

A bootstrapping method to optimize go/no-go decisions from single-arm, signal-finding studies in oncology

Phase Ib trials are common in oncology development but often are not powered for statistical significance. Go/no-go decisions are largely driven by observed trends in response data. We applied a bootstrapping method to systematically compare tumor dynamic end points to historical control data to identify drugs with clinically meaningful efficacy. A proprietary mathematical model calibrated to phase Ib anti-PD-1 therapy trial data (KEYNOTE-001) was used to simulate thousands of phase Ib trials (n = 30) with a combination of anti-PD-1 therapy and four novel agents with varying efficacy. A redacted bootstrapping method compared these results to a simulated phase III control arm (N = 511) while adjusting for differences in trial duration and cohort size to determine the probability that the novel agent provides clinically meaningful efficacy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed strong ability to separate drugs with modest (area under ROC [AUROC] = 83%), moderate (AUROC = 96%), and considerable efficacy (AUROC = 99%) from placebo in early-phase trials (n = 30). The method was shown to effectively move drugs with a range of efficacy through an in silico pipeline with an overall success rate of 93% and false-positive rate of 7.5% from phase I to phase III. This model allows for effective comparisons of tumor dynamics from early clinical trials with more mature historical control data and provides a framework to predict drug efficacy in early-phase trials. We suggest this method should be employed to improve decision making in early oncology trials.

Intratumoral therapies in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: A systematic review and future perspectives

BACKGROUND

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) presents an ideal scenario for intratumoral therapies (IT), due to its local recurrence pattern and frequent superficial extension. IT therapies aim to effect tumor regression by directly injecting antineoplastic agents into lesions. However, there is a lack of updated evidence regarding IT therapies in HNSCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A systematic literature search (CRD42023462291) was conducted using WebOfScience, ClinicalTrials.gov, and conference abstracts from ESMO and ASCO, identifying for IT clinical trials in patients with HNSCC, from database creation to September 12th, 2023. Efficacy as well as safety (grade ≥ 3 treatment-related adverse events[trAEs]) were reported.

RESULTS

After evaluation of 1180 articles identified by the systematic search, 31 studies treating 948 patients were included. IT injectables were categorized as chemotherapies with or without electroporation (k = 4, N = 268), oncolytic viruses, plasmids, and bacteria-based (k = 16, N = 446), immunotherapies and EGFR-based therapies (k = 5, N = 160), radioenhancer particles (k = 2, N = 68), and calcium electroporation (k = 1, n = 6). EGFR-antisense plasmids, NBTXR3 radioenhancer and immune innate agonists show best overall response rates, at 83 %, 81 % and 44 % respectively. Eleven (35 %) studies added systemic therapy or radiotherapy to the IT injections. No study used predictive biomarkers to guide patient selection. 97 % studies were phase I-II. Safety-wise, electroporation and epinephrine-based injectable trials had significant local symptoms such as necrosis, fistula formation and post-injection dysphagia. Treatment-related tumor haemorrhages of various grades were described in several trials. Grade ≥ 3 trAEs attributable to the other therapies mainly comprised general symptoms such as fatigue. There were 3 injectable-related deaths across the systematic review.

CONCLUSION

This is the first review to summarize all available evidence of IT in HNSCC. As of today, IT therapies lack sufficient evidence to recommend their use in clinical practice. Continuing research on potential molecules, patient selection, safe administration of injections and controlled randomized trials are needed to assess their added benefit.

Improvement of assessment in surrogate endpoint and safety outcome of single-arm trials for anticancer drugs

INTRODUCTION

Single-arm trials (SATs) and surrogate endpoints were adopted as pivotal evidence for accelerated approval of anticancer drugs for more than 30 years. However, concerns regarding clinical evidence quality in trials, particularly in the SATs of anticancer drugs have increasingly been raised. SAT may not always provide strong evidence due to the lack of control and endpoint of overall survival that is typically present in randomized controlled trials.

AREAS COVERED

Clinical trial endpoint adjudication is a crucial factor in surrogate outcome measurement to ensure the data quality of the clinical trial of anticancer drugs. In this review, we systematically discuss the characteristics of adjudications in assessments in surrogate endpoint and safety outcome respectively, which are essential for ensuring reliable and transparent outcomes. Endpoint adjudication effectively reduces potential bias and mitigates variance that may be introduced by investigators when analyzing the medical records for the surrogate endpoints. We analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each type of adjudicator and provide a summary of the roles of adjudicators.

EXPERT OPINION

By suggestion of improving data reliability and transparency in pivotal trials, this review aims to supply a strategy for better clinical investigation for anticancer drugs, ultimately leading to better patient outcomes.

A novel approach to evaluation of tumor response for advanced pulmonary adenocarcinoma using the intertumoral heterogeneity response score

Treatment response and prognosis estimation in advanced pulmonary adenocarcinoma are challenged by the significant heterogeneity of the disease. The current Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria, despite providing a basis for solid tumor response evaluation, do not fully encompass this heterogeneity. To better represent these nuances, we introduce the intertumoral heterogeneity response score (THRscore), a measure built upon and expanding the RECIST criteria. This retrospective study included patients with 3-10 measurable advanced lung adenocarcinoma lesions who underwent first-line chemotherapy or targeted therapy. The THRscore, derived from the coefficient of variation in size for each measurable tumor before and 4-6 weeks posttreatment, unveiled a correlation with patient outcomes. Specifically, a high THRscore was associated with shorter progression-free survival, lower tumor response rate, and a higher tumor mutation burden. These associations were further validated in an external cohort, confirming THRscore's effectiveness in stratifying patients based on progression risk and treatment response, and enhancing the utility of RECIST in capturing complex tumor behaviors in lung adenocarcinoma. These findings affirm the promise of THRscore as an enhanced tool for tumor response assessment in advanced lung adenocarcinoma, extending the RECIST criteria's utility.

Correlation between surrogate endpoints and overall survival in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aimed to assess the therapeutic effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) and investigate the correlation between surrogate endpoints and overall survival (OS). A systematic literature search included phase I, II, and III clinical trials comparing ICIs to placebo or other therapies for uHCC treatment. Correlations between OS and surrogate endpoints were evaluated using meta-regression analyses and calculating the surrogate threshold effect (STE). The correlation analysis showed a weak association between OS and progression-free survival (PFS), with an R2 value of 0.352 (95% CI: 0.000-0.967). However, complete response (CR) exhibited a strong correlation with OS (R2 = 0.905, 95% CI: 0.728-1.000). Subgroup analyses revealed high correlations between OS and PFS, CR, stable disease (SD), and DC in phase III trials (R2: 0.827-0.922). For the ICI + IA group, significant correlations were observed between OS and SD, progressive disease (PD), and grade 3-5 immune-related adverse events (irAEs) (R2: 0.713-0.969). Analyses of the correlation between survival benefit and risk of mortality across various time points showed a strong association within the first year (R2: 0.724-0.868) but a weak association beyond one year (R2: 0.406-0.499). In ICI trials for uHCC, PFS has limited utility as a surrogate endpoint for OS, while CR exhibits a strong correlation with OS. Subgroup analyses highlight high correlations between OS and PFS, SD, and DC in phase III trials. Notably, the ICI + IA group shows significant associations between OS and SD, PD, and grade 3-5 irAEs. These findings offer valuable insights for interpreting trial outcomes and selecting appropriate endpoints in future clinical studies involving ICIs for uHCC patients.

Time to deterioration of patient-reported outcomes as a surrogate of overall survival: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Overall survival is the optimal marker of treatment efficacy in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) but can take considerable time to mature. Progression-free survival (PFS) has served as an early surrogate of overall survival but is imperfect. Time to deterioration in quality of life (QOL) measures could be a surrogate for overall survival.

METHODS

Phase 3 RCTs in solid malignancies that reported overall survival, PFS, and time to deterioration in QOL or physical function published between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2022, were evaluated. Weighted regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between PFS, time to deterioration in QOL, and time to deterioration in physical function with overall survival. The coefficient of determination (R2) was used to quantify surrogacy.

RESULTS

In total, 138 phase 3 RCTs were included. Of these, 47 trials evaluated immune checkpoint inhibitors and 91 investigated non-immune checkpoint inhibitor agents. Time to deterioration in QOL (137 RCTs) and time to deterioration in physical function (75 RCTs) performed similarly to PFS as surrogates for overall survival (R2 = 0.18 vs R2 = 0.19 and R2 = 0.10 vs R2 = 0.09, respectively). For immune checkpoint inhibitor studies, time to deterioration in physical function had a higher association with overall survival than with PFS (R2 = 0.38 vs R2 = 0.19), and PFS and time to deterioration in physical function did not correlate with each other (R2 = 0). When time to deterioration in physical function and PFS are used together, the coefficient of determination increased (R2 = 0.57).

CONCLUSIONS

Time to deterioration in physical function appears to be an overall survival surrogate measure of particular importance for immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment efficacy. The combination of time to deterioration in physical function with PFS may enable better prediction of overall survival treatment benefit in RCTs of immune checkpoint inhibitors than either PFS or time to deterioration in physical function alone.

Time-to-event surrogate end-points in multiple myeloma randomised trials from 2005 to 2019: A surrogacy analysis

Use of surrogate end-points such as progression-free survival (PFS) and other time-to-event (TTE) end-points is common in multiple myeloma (MM) clinical trials. This systematic review characterises all published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in MM using PFS or other TTE end-points between 2005 and 2019 and assesses strength of surrogacy of PFS for overall survival (OS). The association between OS hazard ratios (HRs) and PFS HRs was evaluated with linear regression, and the coefficient of determination with Pearson's correlation. We identified 88 RCTs of which 67 (76%) used PFS as the primary/co-primary end-point. One trial indicated whether progression was biochemical or clinical. Of the variance in OS, 39% was due to variance in PFS. Correlation between PFS and OS was weak (0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.78). In newly diagnosed MM, 43% of the variance in OS was due to changes in PFS. The correlation between PFS and OS was weak (0.65, 95% CI 0.30-0.84). In relapsed/refractory MM, 58% of the variance in OS was due to changes in PFS. Correlation between PFS and OS was medium (0.76, 95% CI 0.42-0.91). We demonstrate that PFS and progression characteristics are characterised poorly in MM trials and that PFS is a poor surrogate for OS in MM.

Objective response rate of placebo in randomized controlled trials of anticancer medicines

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous regression of advanced solid tumors is infrequent but may occur. Quantifying response rates from placebo in cancer drug trials may provide important information for physicians, patients, and regulators. We aimed to provide a pooled placebo response rate from drug trials in advanced solid tumors.

METHODS

We pooled the overall response rate (ORR), complete response rate (CR) and partial response rates (PR) in the placebo arm of placebo-controlled randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer drugs for advanced solid tumors published during 2015-2021 using random-effects model.

FINDINGS

45 phase 3 RCTs including 5684 patients on placebo met our inclusion criteria and formed the study cohort. The pooled overall ORR, CR and PR rates in the placebo arm were 1% (95% CI, 0%-2%), 0% (95% CI, 0%-0%), and 1% (95% CI, 0%-2%) respectively. Higher placebo responses were observed in prostate cancer and sarcoma trials.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, 1% patients with advanced solid tumors can expect to achieve some response even in absence of treatment. However, complete regression without treatment is extremely rare, almost zero percent. This information will be helpful to patients in their decisions, as well as regulators in evaluating cancer drugs' efficacy based on response rates alone.

FUNDING

None.

Machine learning on the road to unlocking microbiota's potential for boosting immune checkpoint therapy

The intestinal microbiota is a complex and diverse ecological community that fulfills multiple functions and substantially impacts human health. Despite its plasticity, unfavorable conditions can cause perturbations leading to so-called dysbiosis, which have been connected to multiple diseases. Unfortunately, understanding the mechanisms underlying the crosstalk between those microorganisms and their host is proving to be difficult. Traditionally used bioinformatic tools have difficulties to fully exploit big data generated for this purpose by modern high throughput screens. Machine Learning (ML) may be a potential means of solving such problems, but it requires diligent application to allow for drawing valid conclusions. This is especially crucial as gaining insight into the mechanistic basis of microbial impact on human health is highly anticipated in numerous fields of study. This includes oncology, where growing amounts of studies implicate the gut ecosystems in both cancerogenesis and antineoplastic treatment outcomes. Based on these reports and first signs of clinical benefits related to microbiota modulation in human trials, hopes are rising for the development of microbiome-derived diagnostics and therapeutics. In this mini-review, we're inspecting analytical approaches used to uncover the role of gut microbiome in immune checkpoint therapy (ICT) with the use of shotgun metagenomic sequencing (SMS) data.

Dexrazoxane for preventing or reducing cardiotoxicity in adults and children with cancer receiving anthracyclines

BACKGROUND

This review is the third update of a previously published Cochrane Review. The original review, looking at all possible cardioprotective agents, was split and this part now focuses on dexrazoxane only. Anthracyclines are effective chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of numerous malignancies. Unfortunately, their use is limited by a dose-dependent cardiotoxicity. In an effort to prevent or reduce this cardiotoxicity, different cardioprotective agents have been studied, including dexrazoxane.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the efficacy of dexrazoxane to prevent or reduce cardiotoxicity and determine possible effects of dexrazoxane on antitumour efficacy, quality of life and toxicities other than cardiac damage in adults and children with cancer receiving anthracyclines when compared to placebo or no additional treatment.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE and Embase to May 2021. We also handsearched reference lists, the proceedings of relevant conferences and ongoing trials registers.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in which dexrazoxane was compared to no additional therapy or placebo in adults and children with cancer receiving anthracyclines.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently performed study selection, data extraction, risk of bias and GRADE assessment of included studies. We analysed results in adults and children separately. We performed analyses according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions.

MAIN RESULTS

For this update, we identified 548 unique records. We included three additional RCTs: two paediatric and one adult. Therefore, we included a total of 13 eligible RCTs (five paediatric and eight adult). The studies enrolled 1252 children with leukaemia, lymphoma or a solid tumour and 1269 participants, who were mostly diagnosed with breast cancer. In adults, moderate-quality evidence showed that there was less clinical heart failure with the use of dexrazoxane (risk ratio (RR) 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11 to 0.43; 7 studies, 1221 adults). In children, we identified no difference in clinical heart failure risk between treatment groups (RR 0.20, 95% CI 0.01 to 4.19; 3 studies, 885 children; low-quality evidence). In three paediatric studies assessing cardiomyopathy/heart failure as the primary cause of death, none of the children had this outcome (1008 children, low-quality evidence). In the adult studies, different definitions for subclinical myocardial dysfunction and clinical heart failure combined were used, but pooled analyses were possible: there was a benefit in favour of the use of dexrazoxane (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.56; 3 studies, 417 adults and RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.66; 2 studies, 534 adults, respectively, moderate-quality evidence). In the paediatric studies, definitions of subclinical myocardial dysfunction and clinical heart failure combined were incomparable, making pooling impossible. One paediatric study showed a benefit in favour of dexrazoxane (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.85; 33 children; low-quality evidence), whereas another study showed no difference between treatment groups (Fischer exact P = 0.12; 537 children; very low-quality evidence). Overall survival (OS) was reported in adults and overall mortality in children. The meta-analyses of both outcomes showed no difference between treatment groups (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% 0.88 to 1.23; 4 studies; moderate-quality evidence; and HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.42; 3 studies, 1008 children; low-quality evidence, respectively). Progression-free survival (PFS) was only reported in adults. We subdivided PFS into three analyses based on the comparability of definitions, and identified a longer PFS in favour of dexrazoxane in one study (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.90; 164 adults; low-quality evidence). There was no difference between treatment groups in the other two analyses (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.40; 1 study; low-quality evidence; and HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.43; 2 studies; moderate-quality evidence, respectively). In adults, there was no difference in tumour response rate between treatment groups (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.04; 6 studies, 956 adults; moderate-quality evidence). We subdivided tumour response rate in children into two analyses based on the comparability of definitions, and identified no difference between treatment groups (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.07; 1 study, 206 children; very low-quality evidence; and RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.01; 1 study, 200 children; low-quality evidence, respectively). The occurrence of secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) was only assessed in children. The available and worst-case analyses were identical and showed a difference in favour of the control group (RR 3.08, 95% CI 1.13 to 8.38; 3 studies, 1015 children; low-quality evidence). In the best-case analysis, the direction of effect was the same, but there was no difference between treatment groups (RR 2.51, 95% CI 0.96 to 6.53; 4 studies, 1220 children; low-quality evidence). For other adverse effects, results also varied. None of the studies evaluated quality of life. If not reported, the number of participants for an analysis was unclear.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analyses showed the efficacy of dexrazoxane in preventing or reducing cardiotoxicity in adults treated with anthracyclines. In children, there was a difference between treatment groups for one cardiac outcome (i.e. for one of the definitions used for clinical heart failure and subclinical myocardial dysfunction combined) in favour of dexrazoxane. In adults, no evidence of a negative effect on tumour response rate, OS and PFS was identified; and in children, no evidence of a negative effect on tumour response rate and overall mortality was identified. The results for adverse effects varied. In children, dexrazoxane may be associated with a higher risk of SMN; in adults this was not addressed. In adults, the quality of the evidence ranged between moderate and low; in children, it ranged between low and very low. Before definitive conclusions on the use of dexrazoxane can be made, especially in children, more high-quality research is needed. We conclude that if the risk of cardiac damage is expected to be high, it might be justified to use dexrazoxane in children and adults with cancer who are treated with anthracyclines. However, clinicians and patients should weigh the cardioprotective effect of dexrazoxane against the possible risk of adverse effects, including SMN, for each individual. For children, the International Late Effects of Childhood Cancer Guideline Harmonization Group has developed a clinical practice guideline.

Association between tumor response to systemic therapy and patient-reported disease symptoms

BACKGROUND

The association of treatment-induced tumor shrinkage with symptom palliation for patients with lung cancer remains unknown. We investigated this correlation using the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised.

METHODS

Using the in-hospital cancer registry, we identified patients receiving chemotherapy and/or immunotherapy for newly diagnosed advanced or metastatic lung cancer. Tumor response and post-treatment Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised were obtained after 2-3 treatment cycles. Patients were divided into groups with or without >30% unidirectional tumor shrinkage (objective response [OR] or non-OR [N-OR] groups, respectively). They were further classified as good-objective response (>50% unidirectional tumor shrinkage), moderate-objective response (30-50% shrinkage), progressive disease (>20% tumor growth or new lesion) or stable disease (SD; N-objective response and non-progressive disease). The primary endpoint was change in the total Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised score from baseline. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 113 patients were enrolled. The total Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised score was significantly more improved in the OR group versus the N-OR group (median: 5 vs. 2, respectively; P = 0.013). This association was more prominent in patients with small-cell lung cancer and large-cell neuroendocrine tumor than those with other histology. Sensitivity analyses showed that the total Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised score was more improved in the OR group versus the SD group (median: 5 vs. 3, respectively; P = 0.029) and in the 'good-OR' group versus the 'moderate-OR and SD' group (median: 7.5 vs. 2, respectively; P = 0.003), suggesting that greater tumor shrinkage led to more symptom amelioration.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor shrinkage was associated with Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised score improvement in patients with lung cancer receiving systemic therapy.

Implications of Oncology Trial Design and Uncertainties in Efficacy-Safety Data on Health Technology Assessments

Background: Advances in cancer medicines have resulted in tangible health impacts, but the magnitude of benefits of approved cancer medicines could vary greatly. Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary process used to inform resource allocation through a systematic value assessment of health technology. This paper reviews the challenges in conducting HTA for cancer medicines arising from oncology trial designs and uncertainties of safety-efficacy data. Methods: Multiple databases (PubMed, Scopus and Google Scholar) and grey literature (public health agencies and governmental reports) were searched to inform this policy narrative review. Results: A lack of robust efficacy-safety data from clinical trials and other relevant sources of evidence has made HTA for cancer medicines challenging. The approval of cancer medicines through expedited pathways has increased in recent years, in which surrogate endpoints or biomarkers for patient selection have been widely used. Using these surrogate endpoints has created uncertainties in translating surrogate measures into patient-centric clinically (survival and quality of life) and economically (cost-effectiveness and budget impact) meaningful outcomes, with potential effects on diverting scarce health resources to low-value or detrimental interventions. Potential solutions include policy harmonization between regulatory and HTA authorities, commitment to generating robust post-marketing efficacy-safety data, managing uncertainties through risk-sharing agreements, and using value frameworks. Conclusion: A lack of robust efficacy-safety data is a central problem for conducting HTA of cancer medicines, potentially resulting in misinformed resource allocation.

Cost-effectiveness of molecularly matched off-label therapies for end-stage cancer - the MetAction precision medicine study

BACKGROUND

Precision cancer medicine (PCM), frequently used for the expensive and often modestly efficacious off-label treatment with medications matched to the tumour genome of end-stage cancer, challenges healthcare resources. We compared the health effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of our MetAction PCM study with corresponding data from comparator populations given best supportive care (BSC) in two external randomised controlled trials.

METHODS

We designed three partitioned survival models to evaluate the healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the main outcomes. Cost-effectiveness was calculated as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of PCM relative to BSC with an annual willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of EUR 56,384 (NOK 605,000). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses addressed uncertainty.

RESULTS

We estimated total healthcare costs (relating to next-generation sequencing (NGS) equipment and personnel wages, molecularly matched medications to the patients with an actionable tumour target and follow-up of the responding patients) and the health outcomes for the MetAction patients versus costs (relating to estimated hospital admission) and outcomes for the BSC cases. The ICERs for incremental QALYs were twice or more as high as the WTP threshold and relatively insensitive to cost decrease of the NGS procedures, while reduction of medication prices would contribute significantly towards a cost-effective PCM strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

The models suggested that the high ICERs of PCM were driven by costs of the NGS diagnostics and molecularly matched medications, with a likelihood for the strategy to be cost-effective defying WTP constraints. Reducing drug expenses to half the list price would likely result in an ICER at the WTP threshold. This can be an incentive for a public-private partnership for sharing drug costs in PCM, exemplified by ongoing European initiatives.

CLINICALTRIALS.GOV, IDENTIFIER

NCT02142036.

Overall Survival Benefits of Cancer Drugs Approved in China From 2005 to 2020

IMPORTANCE

Of approximately 9 million patients with cancer in China in 2020, more than half were diagnosed with late-stage cancers. Recent regulatory reforms in China have focused on improving the availability of new cancer drugs. However, evidence on the clinical benefits of new cancer therapies authorized in China is not available.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the clinical benefits of cancer drugs approved in China, as defined by the availability and magnitude of statistically significant overall survival (OS) results.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This mixed-methods study comprising a systematic review and cross-sectional analysis identified antineoplastic agents approved in China between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2020, using publicly available data and regulatory review documents issued by the National Medical Products Administration. The literature published up to June 30, 2021, was reviewed to collect results on end points used in pivotal trials supporting cancer drug approvals.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was a documented statistically significant positive OS difference between a new cancer therapy and a comparator treatment. Secondary outcome measures were the magnitude of OS benefit and other primary efficacy measures in pivotal trials.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2020, 78 cancer drugs corresponding to 141 indications were authorized in China, including 20 drugs (25.6%) (for 30 indications) approved in China only. Of all indications, 26 (18.4%) were evaluated in single-arm or dose-optimization trials, most of which were authorized after 2017. By June 30, 2021, 34 drug indications (24.1%) had a documented lack of OS gain. For 68 indications (48.2%) that had documented evidence of OS benefit, the median magnitude of OS improvement was 4.1 (range, 1.0-35.0) months. After a median follow-up of 1.9 (range, 1.0-11.1) years from approval, OS data for 13 indications (9.2%) were either not reported or were still not mature. Fewer than one-third of cancer drug indications approved in China only had documented evidence of OS benefits (9 of 30 [30.0%]), whereas more than one-half of the cancer drug indications also available in the US or Europe had OS benefits (59 of 111 [53.1%]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, almost half of cancer drug indications approved in China had demonstrated OS gain. With the increase of cancer drug approvals based on single-arm trials or immature survival data in recent years, these findings highlight the need to routinely monitor the clinical benefits of new cancer therapies in China.

Impact of early tumor shrinkage on quality of life in patients treated with first-line cetuximab plus chemotherapy for unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer: results of Phase II QUACK trial

Purpose

Although early tumor shrinkage (ETS) is a predictor of improved overall survival (OS), the association between ETS and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) remains unclear for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) treated with first-line cetuximab plus chemotherapy.

Methods

The data were collected from a prospective trial that assessed HRQOL using the EORTC QLQ-C30. The impact of ETS on HRQOL was estimated using a linear mixed-effects model for repeated measures.

Results

ETS was achieved in 82 (64.1%) of 128 mCRC patients treated with first-line cetuximab plus chemotherapy, and these patients had a significantly longer OS than those without ETS (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.20–0.72; P = .002). Asymptomatic patients with ETS had a favorable OS, while symptomatic patients without ETS had a worse OS (2-year OS rates, 77.8% vs. 42.5%). Symptomatic patients with ETS had similar outcomes as asymptomatic patients without ETS (2-year OS rates, 64.1% vs. 67.0%). For symptomatic patients, ETS was associated with improved HRQOL scores between baseline and 8 weeks: the mean changes for patients with and without ETS were 5.86 and -4.94 for global health status (GHS)/QOL, 26.73 and 3.79 for physical functioning, and 13.58 and -3.10 for social functioning, respectively. The improved HRQOL was comparable to that of asymptomatic patients without ETS. For asymptomatic patients, ETS showed a decreased deterioration in HRQOL.

Conclusion

Our findings highlight the importance of ETS for HRQOL and prognostic estimates, and assessing ETS may provide clinically useful information for physicians and patients to make more informed decisions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09811-x.

Correlations between objective response rate and survival-based endpoints in first-line advanced non-small cell lung Cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The study objective was to estimate the relationship between objective response and survival-based endpoints by drug class, in first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic literature review identified randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of first-line aNSCLC therapies reporting overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and/or objective response rate (ORR). Trial-level and arm-level linear regression models were fit, accounting for inclusion of immunotherapy (IO)-based or chemotherapy-only RCT arms. Weighted least squares-based R² were calculated along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For the main trial-level analysis of OS vs. ORR, the surrogate threshold effect was estimated. Exploratory analyses involved further stratification by: IO monotherapy vs. chemotherapy, dual-IO therapy vs. chemotherapy, and IO + chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy.

RESULTS

From 17,040 records, 57 RCTs were included. In the main analysis, trial-level associations between OS and ORR were statistically significant in both the IO-based and chemotherapy-only strata, with R² estimates of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.26-0.81) and 0.34 (0.05-0.63), respectively. OS gains associated with a given ORR benefit were statistically significantly larger within IO vs. chemotherapy comparisons compared to chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy comparisons (p < 0.001). Exploratory analysis suggested a trend by IO type: for a given change in ORR, 'pure' IO (IO monotherapy and dual-IO) vs. chemotherapy RCTs tended to have a larger OS benefit than IO + chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy RCTs. For ORR vs. PFS, trial-level correlations were strong in the IO-based vs. chemotherapy (R² = 0.84; 0.72-0.95), and chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy strata (R² = 0.69; 0.49-0.88). For OS vs. PFS, correlations were moderate in both strata (R² = 0.49; 0.20-0.78 and R² = 0.49; 0.23-0.76).

CONCLUSION

The larger OS benefit per unit of ORR benefit in IO-based RCTs compared to chemotherapy-only RCTs provides an important addition to the established knowledge regarding the durability and depth of response in IO-based treatments.

Local Investigators Significantly Overestimate Overall Response Rates Compared to Blinded Independent Central Reviews in Uncontrolled Oncology Trials: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

Several drugs gained market authorization based on the demonstration of improved progression-free survival (PFS), adopted as a primary endpoint in Phase 3 clinical trials. In addition, an increasing number of drugs have been granted accelerated approval, and sometimes regular approval, by the main regulatory agencies based on the evaluation of the overall response rate in Phase 1 and 2 clinical trials. However, while the overall survival is an unbiased measure of drug efficacy, these outcomes rely on the assessment of radiological images and patients’ categorization using standardized response criteria. The evaluation of these outcomes may be influenced by subjective factors, particularly when the analysis is performed locally. In fact, blinding of treatment is not always possible in modern oncology trials. Therefore, a blinded independent central review is often adopted to overcome the problem of expectation bias associated with local investigator assessments. In this regard, we have recently observed that local investigators tend to overestimate the overall response rate in comparison to central reviewers in Phase 2 clinical trials, whereas we did not find any significant evaluation bias between local investigators and central reviews when considering progression-free survival in both Phase 2 and 3 trials. In the present article, we have tried to understand the reasons behind this discrepancy by reviewing the available evidence in the literature. In addition, a further analysis of Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials that included the evaluation of both endpoints showed that local investigators significantly overestimate overall response rates compared to blinded independent central reviews in uncontrolled oncology trials.

Response rates and minimal residual disease outcomes as potential surrogates for progression-free survival in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Progression-free survival (PFS) is a common primary endpoint in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients with NDMM typically have longer PFS and are more likely to achieve minimal residual disease (MRD) or complete response (CR) compared to patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Response-based surrogate endpoints may hold value given the longer follow-up time required to evaluate PFS in NDMM. In this work, systematic literature reviews of Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases (2010-06/2020) and relevant congresses (2018–2020) were performed to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and real-world studies in NDMM reporting median PFS and objective response. Associations between PFS and each response endpoint were evaluated using Pearson’s product-moment correlation weighted by sample size in each RCT arm. Unadjusted and adjusted weighted linear regression models were applied to estimate the gain in median PFS associated with each response endpoint. Statistically significant correlations were identified for median PFS with overall response rate (ORR; Pearson r = 0.59), CR (r = 0.48), stringent CR (sCR; r = 0.68), and MRD (r = 0.69). The unadjusted models estimated 0.50 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.64; p<0.001), 0.42 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.58; p<0.001), 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58, 1.52; p<0.001), and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.58; p = 0.006) months of median PFS gained per point of ORR, CR, sCR, and MRD, respectively. Associations for median PFS remained statistically significant in models adjusted for age and treatment type with ORR (0.35, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.49; p<0.001), and adjusted for age and International Staging System risk stage with CR (0.29, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.41; p<0.001). Due to small sample size, adjusted models could not be constructed for sCR or MRD. Nevertheless, evidence of significant survival benefit (p<0.05) associated with MRD negativity and sCR was identified across real-world studies. These findings provide support for the use of response outcomes as surrogate endpoints to estimate PFS benefit in NDMM.

The Relationship Between Short-Term Surrogate Endpoint Indicators and mPFS and mOS in Clinical Trials of Malignant Tumors: A Case Study of Approved Molecular Targeted Drugs for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in China

Objective: Due to the initiation of the priority review program in China, many antitumor drugs have been approved for marketing based on phase II clinical trials and short-term surrogate endpoint indicators. This study used approved targeted drugs for the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in China as an example to evaluate the association between short-term surrogate endpoints [objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR)] and median progression-free survival (mPFS) and median overall survival (mOS).

Methods: Five databases, i.e., MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang Data were searched, for phase II or phase III clinical trials of all molecular targeted drugs that have been marketed in China for the treatment of NSCLC. After screening the literature and extracting information, both univariate and multivariate linear regression were performed on the short-term surrogate indicators and mPFS and mOS to explore the relationship.

Results: A total of 63 studies were included (25 studies with only ORR, DCR, and mPFS and 39 studies with ORR, DCR, mPFS, and mOS). In terms of the targeted drugs for the treatment of NSCLC, in addition to the good but not excellent linear relationship between DCR and mOS (0.4 < R²_adj = 0.5653 < 0.6), all other short-term surrogate endpoint indicators had excellent linear relationships with mPFS and mOS (R²_adj≥0.6), while mPFS and mOS had the most excellent linear relationships (R²_adj = 0.8036).

Conclusion: For targeted drugs for the treatment of NSCLC, short-term surrogate endpoint indicators such as ORR and DCR may be reliable surrogate indicators for mPFS and mOS. However, whether short-term surrogate endpoint indicators can be used to predict final endpoints remains to be verified.

Modelling approaches for histology-independent cancer drugs to inform NICE appraisals: a systematic review and decision-framework

BACKGROUND

The first histology-independent marketing authorisation in Europe was granted in 2019. This was the first time that a cancer treatment was approved based on a common biomarker rather than the location in the body at which the tumour originated. This research aims to explore the implications for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals.

METHODS

Targeted reviews were undertaken to determine the type of evidence that is likely to be available at the point of marketing authorisation and the analyses required to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Several challenges were identified concerning the design and conduct of trials for histology-independent products, the greater levels of heterogeneity within the licensed population and the use of surrogate end points. We identified approaches to address these challenges by reviewing key statistical literature that focuses on the design and analysis of histology-independent trials and by undertaking a systematic review to evaluate the use of response end points as surrogate outcomes for survival end points. We developed a decision framework to help to inform approval and research policies for histology-independent products. The framework explored the uncertainties and risks associated with different approval policies, including the role of further data collection, pricing schemes and stratified decision-making.

RESULTS

We found that the potential for heterogeneity in treatment effects, across tumour types or other characteristics, is likely to be a central issue for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Bayesian hierarchical methods may serve as a useful vehicle to assess the level of heterogeneity across tumours and to estimate the pooled treatment effects for each tumour, which can inform whether or not the assumption of homogeneity is reasonable. Our review suggests that response end points may not be reliable surrogates for survival end points. However, a surrogate-based modelling approach, which captures all relevant uncertainty, may be preferable to the use of immature survival data. Several additional sources of heterogeneity were identified as presenting potential challenges to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal, including the cost of testing, baseline risk, quality of life and routine management costs. We concluded that a range of alternative approaches will be required to address different sources of heterogeneity to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. An exemplar case study was developed to illustrate the nature of the assessments that may be required.

CONCLUSIONS

Adequately designed and analysed basket studies that assess the homogeneity of outcomes and allow borrowing of information across baskets, where appropriate, are recommended. Where there is evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and estimates of cost-effectiveness, consideration should be given to optimised recommendations. Routine presentation of the scale of the consequences of heterogeneity and decision uncertainty may provide an important additional approach to the assessments specified in the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence methods guide.

FURTHER RESEARCH

Further exploration of Bayesian hierarchical methods could help to inform decision-makers on whether or not there is sufficient evidence of homogeneity to support pooled analyses. Further research is also required to determine the appropriate basis for apportioning genomic testing costs where there are multiple targets and to address the challenges of uncontrolled Phase II studies, including the role and use of surrogate end points.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 76. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Efficacy and safety of various primary treatment strategies for very early and early hepatocellular carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Several treatments are available for treatment of early and very early-stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma, also known as small Hepatocellular Carcinoma (SHCC). However, there is no consensus with regards to the efficacies of these methods. We aimed at identifying the most effective initial treatment strategy for SHCC through Bayesian network meta-analyses.

METHODS

Studies published between January, 2010, and February, 2021 were searched in EMBASE, Cochrane Library, PubMed and Web of science databases, and conference proceedings for trials. The included studies reported the survival outcomes of very early and early Hepatocellular Carcinoma patients subjected to radiofrequency ablation (RFA), microwave ablation (MWA), surgical resection (SR), transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI), minimally invasive liver surgery (MIS), stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) and cryoablation (CA). Then, data were extracted from studies that met the inclusion criteria. Patient survival data were retrieved from the published Kaplan-Meier curves and pooled. A Bayesian random-effects model was used to combine direct and indirect evidence.

RESULTS

A total of 2058 articles were retrieved and screened, from which 45 studies assessing the efficacies of 8 different treatments in 11,364 patients were selected. The included studies had high methodological quality. Recurrence free survival* (progression/recurrence/relapse/disease/tumor-free survival were combined and redefined as RFS*) and overall survival (OS) outcomes were highest in MIS-treated patients (HR 0·57, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0·38-0·85; HR 0.48,95% CI 0.36-0.64, respectively), followed by SR-treated patients (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.50-0.74; HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.55-0.72, respectively). TACE was highly efficacious (58.9%) at decreasing the rates of major complications. Similar findings were obtained through sensitivity analysis, and in most of the prognostic subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

MIS and SR exhibited the highest clinical efficacies, however, they were associated with higher rates of complications. Ablation is effective in small tumors, whereas SBRT is a relatively promising treatment option for SHCC. More well-designed, large-scale randomized controlled trials should be performed to validate our findings.

Systemic treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: An EASL position paper

The last 5 years have witnessed relevant advances in the systemic treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. New data have emerged since the development of the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma in 2018. Drugs licensed in some countries now include 4 oral multi-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (sorafenib, lenvatinib, regorafenib and cabozantinib), 1 anti-angiogenic antibody (ramucirumab) and 4 immune checkpoint inhibitors, alone or in combination (atezolizumab in combination with bevacizumab, ipilimumab in combination with nivolumab, nivolumab and pembrolizumab in monotherapy). Prolonged survival in excess of 2 years can be expected in most patients with sensitive tumours and well-preserved liver function that renders them fit for sequential therapies. With different choices available in any given setting, the robustness of the evidence of efficacy and a correct matching of the safety profile of a given agent with patient characteristics and preferences are key in making sound therapeutic decisions. The recommendations in this document amend the previous EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines and aim to help clinicians provide the best possible care for patients today. In view of several ongoing and promising trials, further advances in systemic therapy of hepatocellular carcinoma are foreseen in the near future and these recommendations will have to be updated regularly.

Basket clinical trial design for targeted therapies for cancer: a French National Authority for Health statement for health technology assessment

During the past decade, health technology assessment bodies have faced new challenges in establishing the benefits of new drugs for individuals and health-care systems. A topic of increasing importance to the field of oncology is the so-called agnostic regulatory approval of targeted therapies for cancer (independent of tumour location and histology) granted on the basis of basket trials. Basket trials in oncology offer the advantage of simultaneously evaluating treatments for multiple tumours, even rare cancers, in a single clinical trial. To address the novel challenges introduced by these trials, an interdisciplinary panel was convened on behalf of the Transparency Committee of the French National Authority for Health to clarify an approach designed to guarantee a transparent, reproducible, and fair assessment of histology-agnostic treatments for reimbursement by the French National Health Insurance Fund. The requirements of this approach include the need for randomisation, clinically relevant endpoints, appropriate correction for multiple significance testing, characterisation of subgroup heterogeneity, and validation of underlying biomarker assays. A prospectively designated external control is encouraged when the implementation of a direct comparison is deemed infeasible. We also underline the importance of recording outcomes from basket trials in a registry for use as future external controls.

Use of endpoints in multiple myeloma randomized controlled trials over the last 15 years: A systematic review

Surrogate endpoints are being used more frequently in randomized controlled trials, even though they do not consistently corelate with patient outcomes. We systemically evaluated the use of surrogate endpoints in multiple myeloma randomized controlled trials over the past 15 years. We searched three databases (Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane) for multiple myeloma randomized controlled trials from January 1, 2005 to December 30, 2019. The primary outcome of our study was the proportion of randomized controlled trials that used overall survival as their primary endpoint. Secondary outcomes included the use of surrogate endpoints, and trends over time, and whether they differed based on study sponsorship. We included 151 randomized controlled trials in our analysis. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) in 17 (11.3%) of studies, progression free survival (PFS) or event-defined endpoints in 91 studies (60.3%) and response-based endpoints in 44 studies (29.1%). Quality of life was a primary endpoint in only three studies (2%). The use of OS as a primary endpoint decreased from 28.5% of trials from 2005 to 2009 to 5.5% from 2015 to 2019. There has been a decrease in the clinically meaningful endpoint of OS over the past 15 years in multiple myeloma randomized controlled trials. Use of quality of life as a primary endpoint remains exceedingly low. It remains paramount to recognize that the use of surrogate endpoints is imperfect, and care based upon them requires constant physician and patient re-analysis.

Local Investigators Significantly Overestimate Overall Response Rates Compared to Blinded Independent Central Reviews in Phase 2 Oncology Trials

The overall response rate (ORR) is a largely adopted outcome measure in early-phase oncology trials. ORR is highly relevant in cancer drug development at the time of deciding whether to move to confirmatory phase 3 trials; moreover, ORR is gaining increasing relevance in fast-track registration procedures. No systematic analysis has been conducted so far to investigate whether a discrepancy exists between ORR assessed by local investigators and those assessed by blinded reviewers in phase 2 oncology trials. In this study, we carried out a search in the clinicaltrials.gov and EudraCT databases, looking at the trials reporting the results of both investigator-assessed and independently-assessed ORR. A discrepancy index was obtained by calculating the ratio of each investigator-assessed ORR on the corresponding independently assessed ORR, so that a discrepancy index >1 indicates that the investigator was "more optimistic," whereas a discrepancy index <1 indicates the opposite. We also analyzed different subgroups (by tumor type, by drug type, by year). Twenty trials met the search criteria; in some cases, >1 comparison was conducted in the trial, so that the total number of comparisons analyzed was 33. The estimated mean discrepancy index was 1.175 (95% confidence interval, 1.083-1.264; n = 33). In conclusion, local investigators significantly overestimate ORR compared to paired blinded reviewers in phase 2 oncology trials. This may represent a risk in drug development, when deciding whether to move to confirmatory, more expensive phase 3 trials. Blinded independent central review should be used in ORR assessment if a more conservative estimate of treatment efficacy is required, as in the case of fast-track drug developments leading to accelerated approvals of cancer therapies.