Precession-band variance missing from East Asian monsoon runoff

Loess deposits in the low latitudes of East Asia reveal the ~20-kyr precipitation cycle

The cycle of precipitation change is key to understanding the driving mechanism of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the dominant cycles of EASM precipitation revealed by different proxy indicators are inconsistent, leading to the "Chinese 100 kyr problem". In this study, we examine a high-resolution, approximately 350,000-year record from a low-latitude loess profile in China. Our analyses show that variations in the ratio of dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate extractable iron to total iron are dominated by the ~20-kyr cycle, reflecting changes in precipitation. In contrast, magnetic susceptibility varies with the ~100-kyr cycle and may be mainly controlled by temperature-induced redox processes or precipitation-induced signal smoothing. Our results suggest that changes in the EASM, as indicated by precipitation in this region, are mainly forced by precession-dominated insolation variations, and that precipitation and temperature may have varied with different cycles over the past ~350,000 years.

Concurrent Asian monsoon strengthening and early modern human dispersal to East Asia during the last interglacial

The relationship between initial Homo sapiens dispersal from Africa to East Asia and the orbitally paced evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-currently the largest monsoon system-remains underexplored due to lack of coordinated synthesis of both Asian paleoanthropological and paleoclimatic data. Here, we investigate orbital-scale ASM dynamics during the last 280 thousand years (kyr) and their likely influences on early H. sapiens dispersal to East Asia, through a unique integration of i) new centennial-resolution ASM records from the Chinese Loess Plateau, ii) model-based East Asian hydroclimatic reconstructions, iii) paleoanthropological data compilations, and iv) global H. sapiens habitat suitability simulations. Our combined proxy- and model-based reconstructions suggest that ASM precipitation responded to a combination of Northern Hemisphere ice volume, greenhouse gas, and regional summer insolation forcing, with cooccurring primary orbital cycles of ~100-kyr, 41-kyr, and ~20-kyr. Between ~125 and 70 kyr ago, summer monsoon rains and temperatures increased in vast areas across Asia. This episode coincides with the earliest H. sapiens fossil occurrence at multiple localities in East Asia. Following the transcontinental increase in simulated habitat suitability, we suggest that ASM strengthening together with Southeast African climate deterioration may have promoted the initial H. sapiens dispersal from their African homeland to remote East Asia during the last interglacial.

Climate shifts orchestrated hominin interbreeding events across Eurasia

When, where, and how often hominin interbreeding happened is largely unknown. We study the potential for Neanderthal-Denisovan admixture using species distribution models that integrate extensive fossil, archaeological, and genetic data with transient coupled general circulation model simulations of global climate and biomes. Our Pleistocene hindcast of past hominins' habitat suitability reveals pronounced climate-driven zonal shifts in the main overlap region of Denisovans and Neanderthals in central Eurasia. These shifts, which influenced the timing and intensity of potential interbreeding events, can be attributed to the response of climate and vegetation to past variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide and Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet volume. Therefore, glacial-interglacial climate swings likely played an important role in favoring gene flow between archaic humans.

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Tipping points (TPs) in Earth's climate system have been the subject of increasing interest and concern in recent years, given the risk that anthropogenic forcing could cause abrupt, potentially irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate records are essential for identifying past TPs and for gaining a thorough understanding of the underlying nonlinearities and bifurcation mechanisms. However, the quality, resolution, and reliability of these records can vary, making it important to carefully select the ones that provide the most accurate representation of past climates. Moreover, as paleoclimate time series vary in their origin, time spans, and periodicities, an objective, automated methodology is crucial for identifying and comparing TPs. To address these challenges, we introduce the open-source PaleoJump database, which contains a collection of carefully selected, high-resolution records originating in ice cores, marine sediments, speleothems, terrestrial records, and lake sediments. These records describe climate variability on centennial, millennial and longer time scales and cover all the continents and ocean basins. We provide an overview of their spatial distribution and discuss the gaps in coverage. Our statistical methodology includes an augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Recurrence Quantification Analysis; it is applied here, for illustration purposes, to selected records in which abrupt transitions are automatically detected and the presence of potential tipping elements is investigated. These transitions are shown in the PaleoJump database along with other essential information about the records, including location, temporal scale and resolution, as well as temporal plots. This open-source database represents, therefore, a valuable resource for researchers investigating TPs in past climates.

Milankovitch theory and monsoon

The widely accepted “Milankovitch theory” explains insolation-induced waxing and waning of the ice sheets and their effect on the global climate on orbital timescales. In the past half century, however, the theory has often come under scrutiny, especially regarding its “100-ka problem.” Another drawback, but the one that has received less attention, is the “monsoon problem,” which pertains to the exclusion of monsoon dynamics in classic Milankovitch theory even though the monsoon prevails over the vast low-latitude (∼30° N to ∼30° S) region that covers half of the Earth’s surface and receives the bulk of solar radiation. In this review, we discuss the major issues with the current form of Milankovitch theory and the progress made at the research forefront. We suggest shifting the emphasis from the ultimate outcomes of the ice volume to the causal relationship between changes in northern high-latitude insolation and ice age termination events (or ice sheet melting rate) to help reconcile the classic “100-ka problem.” We discuss the discrepancies associated with the characterization of monsoon dynamics, particularly the so-called “sea-land precession-phase paradox” and the “Chinese 100-ka problem.” We suggest that many of these discrepancies are superficial and can be resolved by applying a holistic “monsoon system science” approach. Finally, we propose blending the conventional Kutzbach orbital monsoon hypothesis, which calls for summer insolation forcing of monsoons, with Milankovitch theory to formulate a combined “Milankovitch-Kutzbach hypothesis” that can potentially explain the dual nature of orbital hydrodynamics of the ice sheet and monsoon systems, as well as their interplays and respective relationships with the northern high-latitude insolation and inter-tropical insolation differential.

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Orbital-scale climate variations of Earth are dictated by ice sheet and monsoon

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Views of “monsoon system science” reinforce the Kutzbach monsoon hypothesis

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A unified Milankovitch-Kutzbach hypothesis better explains the orbital dual nature

Decoupled Asian monsoon intensity and precipitation during glacial-interglacial transitions on the Chinese Loess Plateau

The discrepancies among the variations in global ice volume, cave stalagmite δ18O and rainfall reconstructed by cosmogenic 10Be tremendously restrain our understanding of the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Here, we present a 430-ka EASM mean annual precipitation record on the Chinese Loess Plateau obtained using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers based on a deep learning neural network; this rainfall record corresponds well with cave-derived δ18O data from southern China but differs from precipitation reconstructed by 10Be. Both branched tetraether membrane lipids and cave δ18O may be affected by soil moisture and atmospheric temperature when glacial and interglacial conditions alternated and were thus decoupled from atmospheric precipitation; instead, they represent variations in the intensity of the EASM. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the brGDGT-DLNN method can significantly extend the temporal scale record of the EASM and is not restricted by geographic location compared with stalagmite records.

Roles of insolation forcing and CO2 forcing on Late Pleistocene seasonal sea surface temperatures

Late Pleistocene changes in insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets have different spatially and seasonally modulated climatic fingerprints. By exploring the seasonality of paleoclimate proxy data, we gain deeper insight into the drivers of climate changes. Here, we investigate changes in alkenone-based annual mean and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca-based summer sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and their linkages to climate forcing over the past 400,000 years. During interglacial-glacial cycles, there are phase differences between annual mean and seasonal (summer and winter) temperatures, which relate to seasonal insolation changes. These phase differences are most evident during interglacials. During glacial terminations, temperature changes were strongly affected by CO₂. Early temperature minima, ~20,000 years before glacial terminations, except the last glacial period, coincide with the largest temperature differences between summer and winter, and with the timing of the lowest atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These findings imply the need to consider proxy seasonality and seasonal climate variability to estimate climate sensitivity.

How temperatures at different seasons differ in response to different forcings is not well known. Here, the authors reconstruct annual and seasonal sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and show that they react differently to CO2 and insolation forcing on glacial-interglacial timescales.

Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution

Asian Monsoon rainfall supports the livelihood of billions of people, yet the relative importance of different drivers remains an issue of great debate. Here, we present 30 million-year model-based reconstructions of Indian summer monsoon and South East Asian monsoon rainfall at millennial resolution. We show that precession is the dominant direct driver of orbital variability, although variability on obliquity timescales is driven through the ice sheets. Orographic development dominated the evolution of the South East Asian monsoon, but Indian summer monsoon evolution involved a complex mix of contributions from orography (39%), precession (25%), atmospheric CO2 (21%), ice-sheet state (5%) and ocean gateways (5%). Prior to 15 Ma, the Indian summer monsoon was broadly stable, albeit with substantial orbital variability. From 15 Ma to 5 Ma, strengthening was driven by a combination of orography and glaciation, while closure of the Panama gateway provided the prerequisite for the modern Indian summer monsoon state through a strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Combined high- and low-latitude forcing of East Asian monsoon precipitation variability in the Pliocene warm period

East Asian monsoon variability in the Pliocene warm world has not been sufficiently studied because of the lack of direct records. We present a high-resolution precipitation record from Pliocene fluvial-lacustrine sequences in the Weihe Basin, Central China, a region sensitive to the East Asian monsoon. The record shows an abrupt monsoon shift at ~4.2 million years ago, interpreted as the result of high-latitude cooling, with an extratropical temperature decrease across a critical threshold. The precipitation time series exhibits a pronounced ~100-thousand year periodicity and the presence of precession and half-precession cycles, which suggest low-latitude forcing. The synchronous phase but mismatched amplitudes of the East Asian monsoon precipitation proxy and eccentricity suggest a nonlinear but sensitive precipitation response to temperature forcing in the Pliocene warm world. These observations highlight the role of high- and low-latitude forcing of East Asian monsoon variations on tectonic and orbital time scales.

A Brief Commentary on the Interpretation of Chinese Speleothem δ18O Records as Summer Monsoon Intensity Tracers

Zhang et al [...]

Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial

The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.

The Asian Summer Monsoon: Teleconnections and Forcing Mechanisms—A Review from Chinese Speleothem δ18O Records

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability significantly affects hydro-climate, and thus socio-economics, in the East Asian region, where nearly one-third of the global population resides. Over the last two decades, speleothem δ18O records from China have been utilized to reconstruct ASM variability and its underlying forcing mechanisms on orbital to seasonal timescales. Here, we use the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database (SISAL_v1) to present an overview of hydro-climate variability related to the ASM during three periods: the late Pleistocene, the Holocene, and the last two millennia. We highlight the possible global teleconnections and forcing mechanisms of the ASM on different timescales. The longest composite stalagmite δ18O record over the past 640 kyr BP from the region demonstrates that ASM variability on orbital timescales is dominated by the 23 kyr precessional cycles, which are in phase with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI). During the last glacial, millennial changes in the intensity of the ASM appear to be controlled by North Atlantic climate and oceanic feedbacks. During the Holocene, changes in ASM intensity were primarily controlled by NHSI. However, the spatio-temporal distribution of monsoon rain belts may vary with changes in ASM intensity on decadal to millennial timescales.

Diverse manifestations of the mid-Pleistocene climate transition

The mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) is widely recognized as a shift in paleoclimatic periodicity from 41- to 100-kyr cycles, which largely reflects integrated changes in global ice volume, sea level, and ocean temperature from the marine realm. However, much less is known about monsoon-induced terrestrial vegetation change across the MPT. Here, on the basis of a 1.7-million-year δ¹³C record of loess carbonates from the Chinese Loess Plateau, we document a unique MPT reflecting terrestrial vegetation changes from a dominant 23-kyr periodicity before 1.2 Ma to combined 100, 41, and 23-kyr cycles after 0.7 Ma, very different from the conventional MPT characteristics. Model simulations further reveal that the MPT transition likely reflects decreased sensitivity of monsoonal hydroclimate to insolation forcing as the Northern Hemisphere became increasingly glaciated through the MPT. Our proxy-model comparison suggests varied responses of temperature and precipitation to astronomical forcing under different ice/CO₂ boundary conditions, which greatly improves our understanding of monsoon variability and dynamics from the natural past to the anthropogenic future.

The mid-Pleistocene transition is recognized as a shift in paleoclimatic periodicity from 41- to 100-kyr cycles. Here the authors present a unique mid-Pleistocene transition of coupled monsoon-vegetation changes from 23- to 100-kyr cycles, which indicates varied sensitivity of past climate to astronomical and ice/CO₂ forcing.

Monsoon-driven Saharan dust variability over the past 240,000 years

Reconstructions of past Saharan dust deposition in marine sediments provide foundational records of North African climate over time scales of 10³ to 10⁶ years. Previous dust records show primarily glacial-interglacial variability in the Pleistocene, in contrast to other monsoon records showing strong precessional variability. Here, we present the first Saharan dust record spanning multiple glacial cycles obtained using ²³⁰Th normalization, an improved method of calculating fluxes. Contrary to previous data, our record from the West African margin demonstrates high correlation with summer insolation and limited glacial-interglacial changes, indicating coherent variability in the African monsoon belt throughout the late Pleistocene. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude Saharan dust emissions do not vary synchronously with high- and mid-latitude dust emissions, and they call into question the use of existing Plio-Pleistocene dust records to investigate links between climate and hominid evolution.

Southern Hemisphere forcing of South Asian monsoon precipitation over the past ~1 million years

The orbital-scale timing of South Asian monsoon (SAM) precipitation is poorly understood. Here we present new SST and seawater δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Osw) records from the Bay of Bengal, the core convective region of the South Asian monsoon, over the past 1 million years. Our records reveal that SAM precipitation peaked in the precession band ~9 kyrs after Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, in phase with records of SAM winds in the Arabian Sea and eastern Indian Ocean. Precession-band variance, however, accounts for ~30% of the total variance of SAM precipitation while it was either absent or dominant in records of the East Asian monsoon (EAM). This and the observation that SAM precipitation was phase locked with obliquity minima and was sensitive to Southern Hemisphere warming provides clear evidence that SAM and EAM precipitation responded differently to orbital forcing and highlights the importance of internal processes forcing monsoon variability.

The orbital-scale timing of South Asian monsoon precipitation is poorly understood. Here the authors show that the long held view that precession drove changes in monsoon strength is wrong, and that obliquity and eccentricity played a stronger role.