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Wang Y, Pedersen MW, Alsos IG, De Sanctis B, Racimo F, Prohaska A, Coissac E, Owens HL, Merkel MKF, Fernandez-Guerra A, Rouillard A, Lammers Y, Alberti A, Denoeud F, Money D, Ruter AH, McColl H, Larsen NK, Cherezova AA, Edwards ME, Fedorov GB, Haile J, Orlando L, Vinner L, Korneliussen TS, Beilman DW, Bjørk AA, Cao J, Dockter C, Esdale J, Gusarova G, Kjeldsen KK, Mangerud J, Rasic JT, Skadhauge B, Svendsen JI, Tikhonov A, Wincker P, Xing Y, Zhang Y, Froese DG, Rahbek C, Bravo DN, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Durbin R, Meltzer DJ, Kjær KH, Möller P, Willerslev E. Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics. Nature 2021; 600:86-92. [PMID: 34671161 PMCID: PMC8636272 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-04016-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2021] [Accepted: 09/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
During the last glacial-interglacial cycle, Arctic biotas experienced substantial climatic changes, yet the nature, extent and rate of their responses are not fully understood1-8. Here we report a large-scale environmental DNA metagenomic study of ancient plant and mammal communities, analysing 535 permafrost and lake sediment samples from across the Arctic spanning the past 50,000 years. Furthermore, we present 1,541 contemporary plant genome assemblies that were generated as reference sequences. Our study provides several insights into the long-term dynamics of the Arctic biota at the circumpolar and regional scales. Our key findings include: (1) a relatively homogeneous steppe-tundra flora dominated the Arctic during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by regional divergence of vegetation during the Holocene epoch; (2) certain grazing animals consistently co-occurred in space and time; (3) humans appear to have been a minor factor in driving animal distributions; (4) higher effective precipitation, as well as an increase in the proportion of wetland plants, show negative effects on animal diversity; (5) the persistence of the steppe-tundra vegetation in northern Siberia enabled the late survival of several now-extinct megafauna species, including the woolly mammoth until 3.9 ± 0.2 thousand years ago (ka) and the woolly rhinoceros until 9.8 ± 0.2 ka; and (6) phylogenetic analysis of mammoth environmental DNA reveals a previously unsampled mitochondrial lineage. Our findings highlight the power of ancient environmental metagenomics analyses to advance understanding of population histories and long-term ecological dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yucheng Wang
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mikkel Winther Pedersen
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Inger Greve Alsos
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT- The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Bianca De Sanctis
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Fernando Racimo
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ana Prohaska
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Eric Coissac
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT- The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, France
| | - Hannah Lois Owens
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Antonio Fernandez-Guerra
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Alexandra Rouillard
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Geosciences, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Youri Lammers
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT- The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Adriana Alberti
- Université Paris-Saclay, CEA, CNRS, Institute for Integrative Biology of the Cell (I2BC), Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Génomique Métabolique, Genoscope, Institut François Jacob, CEA, CNRS, Université Evry, Université Paris-Saclay, Evry, France
| | - France Denoeud
- Génomique Métabolique, Genoscope, Institut François Jacob, CEA, CNRS, Université Evry, Université Paris-Saclay, Evry, France
| | - Daniel Money
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Anthony H Ruter
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Hugh McColl
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nicolaj Krog Larsen
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Anna A Cherezova
- Institute of Earth Sciences, St Petersburg State University, St Petersburg, Russia
- Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St Petersburg, Russia
| | - Mary E Edwards
- School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Alaska Quaternary Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | - Grigory B Fedorov
- Institute of Earth Sciences, St Petersburg State University, St Petersburg, Russia
- Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St Petersburg, Russia
| | - James Haile
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ludovic Orlando
- Centre d'Anthropobiologie et de Génomique de Toulouse, Université Paul Sabatier, Faculté de Médecine Purpan, Toulouse, France
| | - Lasse Vinner
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Thorfinn Sand Korneliussen
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - David W Beilman
- Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | - Anders A Bjørk
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jialu Cao
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Julie Esdale
- Center for Environmental Management of Military Lands, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Galina Gusarova
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT- The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Faculty of Biology, St Petersburg State University, St Petersburg, Russia
| | - Kristian K Kjeldsen
- Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jan Mangerud
- Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Jeffrey T Rasic
- US National Park Service, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | | | - John Inge Svendsen
- Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Alexei Tikhonov
- Zoological Institute, , Russian Academy of Sciences, St Petersburg, Russia
| | - Patrick Wincker
- Génomique Métabolique, Genoscope, Institut François Jacob, CEA, CNRS, Université Evry, Université Paris-Saclay, Evry, France
| | - Yingchun Xing
- Resource and Environmental Research Center, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yubin Zhang
- College of Plant Science, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Duane G Froese
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Center for Global Mountain Biodiversity, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - David Nogues Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Philip B Holden
- School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Neil R Edwards
- School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Richard Durbin
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - David J Meltzer
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Anthropology, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Kurt H Kjær
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Per Möller
- Department of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Eske Willerslev
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
- Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Cambridge, UK.
- MARUM, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
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Thomson JR, Holden PB, Anand P, Edwards NR, Porchier CA, Harris NBW. Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution. Nat Commun 2021; 12:4022. [PMID: 34188033 PMCID: PMC8242090 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24244-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Asian Monsoon rainfall supports the livelihood of billions of people, yet the relative importance of different drivers remains an issue of great debate. Here, we present 30 million-year model-based reconstructions of Indian summer monsoon and South East Asian monsoon rainfall at millennial resolution. We show that precession is the dominant direct driver of orbital variability, although variability on obliquity timescales is driven through the ice sheets. Orographic development dominated the evolution of the South East Asian monsoon, but Indian summer monsoon evolution involved a complex mix of contributions from orography (39%), precession (25%), atmospheric CO2 (21%), ice-sheet state (5%) and ocean gateways (5%). Prior to 15 Ma, the Indian summer monsoon was broadly stable, albeit with substantial orbital variability. From 15 Ma to 5 Ma, strengthening was driven by a combination of orography and glaciation, while closure of the Panama gateway provided the prerequisite for the modern Indian summer monsoon state through a strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Philip B Holden
- School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK.
| | - Pallavi Anand
- School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Neil R Edwards
- School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
- Cambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Cécile A Porchier
- School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nigel B W Harris
- School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
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3
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Mondanaro A, Melchionna M, Di Febbraro M, Castiglione S, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Carotenuto F, Maiorano L, Modafferi M, Serio C, Diniz-Filho JAF, Rangel T, Rook L, O'Higgins P, Spikins P, Profico A, Raia P. A Major Change in Rate of Climate Niche Envelope Evolution during Hominid History. iScience 2020; 23:101693. [PMID: 33163945 PMCID: PMC7607486 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2020.101693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 10/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Homo sapiens is the only species alive able to take advantage of its cognitive abilities to inhabit almost all environments on Earth. Humans are able to culturally construct, rather than biologically inherit, their occupied climatic niche to a degree unparalleled within the animal kingdom. Precisely, when hominins acquired such an ability remains unknown, and scholars disagree on the extent to which our ancestors shared this same ability. Here, we settle this issue using fine-grained paleoclimatic data, extensive archaeological data, and phylogenetic comparative methods. Our results indicate that whereas early hominins were forced to live under physiologically suitable climatic conditions, with the emergence of H. heidelbergensis, the Homo climatic niche expanded beyond its natural limits, despite progressive harshening in global climates. This indicates that technological innovations providing effective exploitation of cold and seasonal habitats predated the emergence of Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens oversteps our ecological niche limits by means of culture The origin of Homo niche-construction ability is unknown We found Homo species other than H. sapiens were able to construct their own niche
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessandro Mondanaro
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Resources Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples 80126, Italy.,Department of Earth Science. University of Florence, Florence 50121, Italy
| | - Marina Melchionna
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Resources Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples 80126, Italy
| | - Mirko Di Febbraro
- Department of Bioscience and Territory. University of Molise, Pesche, Isernia 86090, Italy
| | - Silvia Castiglione
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Resources Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples 80126, Italy
| | - Philip B Holden
- School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6BJ, UK
| | - Neil R Edwards
- School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6BJ, UK
| | - Francesco Carotenuto
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Resources Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples 80126, Italy
| | - Luigi Maiorano
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies Charles Darwin, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome 00185, Italy
| | - Maria Modafferi
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Resources Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples 80126, Italy
| | - Carmela Serio
- Research Centre in Evolutionary Anthropology and Palaeoecology, School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 3AF, UK
| | - Josè A F Diniz-Filho
- Department of Ecology, ICB, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia 74968-755, Brasil
| | - Thiago Rangel
- Department of Ecology, ICB, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia 74968-755, Brasil
| | - Lorenzo Rook
- Department of Earth Science. University of Florence, Florence 50121, Italy
| | - Paul O'Higgins
- Department of Archaeology and Hull York Medical School, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Penny Spikins
- Department of Archaeology and Hull York Medical School, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Antonio Profico
- Department of Archaeology and Hull York Medical School, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Pasquale Raia
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Resources Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples 80126, Italy
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4
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Beerling DJ, Kantzas EP, Lomas MR, Wade P, Eufrasio RM, Renforth P, Sarkar B, Andrews MG, James RH, Pearce CR, Mercure JF, Pollitt H, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Khanna M, Koh L, Quegan S, Pidgeon NF, Janssens IA, Hansen J, Banwart SA. Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands. Nature 2020; 583:242-248. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 134] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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5
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Diniz-Filho JAF, Jardim L, Rangel TF, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Hortal J, Santos AMC, Raia P. Quantitative genetics of body size evolution on islands: an individual-based simulation approach. Biol Lett 2019; 15:20190481. [PMID: 31594495 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2019.0481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
According to the island rule, small-bodied vertebrates will tend to evolve larger body size on islands, whereas the opposite happens to large-bodied species. This controversial pattern has been studied at the macroecological and biogeographical scales, but new developments in quantitative evolutionary genetics now allow studying the island rule from a mechanistic perspective. Here, we develop a simulation approach based on an individual-based model to model body size change on islands as a progressive adaptation to a moving optimum, determined by density-dependent population dynamics. We applied the model to evaluate body size differentiation in the pigmy extinct hominin Homo floresiensis, showing that dwarfing may have occurred in only about 360 generations (95% CI ranging from 150 to 675 generations). This result agrees with reports suggesting rapid dwarfing of large mammals on islands, as well as with the recent discovery that small-sized hominins lived in Flores as early as 700 kyr ago. Our simulations illustrate the power of analysing ecological and evolutionary patterns from an explicit quantitative genetics perspective.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lucas Jardim
- INCT EECBio, DTI program, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Thiago F Rangel
- Departamento de Ecologia, ICB, Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG), Goiania, Brazil
| | - Phillip B Holden
- Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Neil R Edwards
- Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Joaquín Hortal
- Departamento de Ecologia, ICB, Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG), Goiania, Brazil.,Department of Biogeography and Global Change, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), C/José Gutiérrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain.,cE3c-Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edifício C2, Piso 5, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Ana M C Santos
- GLOCEE-Global Change Ecology and Evolution Group, Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad de Alcalá, 28805 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain.,cE3c-Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edifício C2, Piso 5, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Pasquale Raia
- Department DiSTAR, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cintia 21, 20126 Napoli, Italy
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6
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Rangel TF, Edwards NR, Holden PB, Diniz-Filho JAF, Gosling WD, Coelho MTP, Cassemiro FAS, Rahbek C, Colwell RK. Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves. Science 2018; 361:361/6399/eaar5452. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aar5452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 185] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2017] [Accepted: 06/05/2018] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thiago F. Rangel
- Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil
| | - Neil R. Edwards
- School of Environment, Earth, and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Philip B. Holden
- School of Environment, Earth, and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | | | - William D. Gosling
- School of Environment, Earth, and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
- Department of Ecosystem and Landscape Dynamics, Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Marco Túlio P. Coelho
- Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil
| | - Fernanda A. S. Cassemiro
- Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil
- Núcleo de Pesquisa em Ictiologia, Limnologia e Aquicultura. Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Robert K. Colwell
- Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
- University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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7
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Bell S, Benatti F, Edwards NR, Laney R, Morse DR, Piccolo L, Zanetti O. Smart Cities and M3: Rapid Research, Meaningful Metrics and Co-Design. Syst Pract Action Res 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s11213-017-9415-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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9
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Abstract
The potential effects of climate change on the environment and society are many. In order to effectively quantify the uncertainty associated with these effects, highly complex simulation models are run with detailed representations of ecosystem processes. These models are computationally expensive and can involve a computer run of several days. Computationally cheaper models can be obtained from large ensembles of simulations using statistical emulation. The purpose of this article is to construct a cheaper computational model (emulator) from simulations of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), which is a dynamic global vegetation and crop model. This article focuses on statistical emulation of potential crop yields from LPJmL and an emulator is constructed using a combination of ordinary least squares, principal component analysis and weighted least squares methods. For five climate models, under cross-validation, the percentage of variance explained ranges from 60 to 88% for the rainfed crops and 62 to 93% for the irrigated crops. The emulator can be used to predict potential crop yield change under any future climate scenarios and management options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oluwole K Oyebamiji
- Department of Environment, Earth & Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Neil R Edwards
- Department of Environment, Earth & Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Philip B Holden
- Department of Environment, Earth & Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Paul H Garthwaite
- Department of Mathematics & Statistics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Sibyll Schaphoff
- Research Domain of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Dieter Gerten
- Research Domain of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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10
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Rohling EJ, Marsh R, Wells NC, Siddall M, Edwards NR. Similar meltwater contributions to glacial sea level changes from Antarctic and northern ice sheets. Nature 2004; 430:1016-21. [PMID: 15329718 DOI: 10.1038/nature02859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2004] [Accepted: 07/16/2004] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The period between 75,000 and 20,000 years ago was characterized by high variability in climate and sea level. Southern Ocean records of ice-rafted debris suggest a significant contribution to the sea level changes from melt water of Antarctic origin, in addition to likely contributions from northern ice sheets, but the relative volumes of melt water from northern and southern sources have yet to be established. Here we simulate the first-order impact of a range of relative meltwater releases from the two polar regions on the distribution of marine oxygen isotopes, using an intermediate complexity model. By comparing our simulations with oxygen isotope data from sediment cores, we infer that the contributions from Antarctica and the northern ice sheets to the documented sea level rises between 65,000 and 35,000 years ago were approximately equal, each accounting for a rise of about 15 m. The reductions in Antarctic ice volume implied by our analysis are comparable to that inferred previously for the Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A (refs 16, 17), which occurred about 14,200 years ago, during the last deglaciation.
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11
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Winn B, Gilmartin B, Mortimer LC, Edwards NR. The effect of mental effort on open- and closed-loop accommodation. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt 1991; 11:335-9. [PMID: 1771070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
The accommodative response to stimuli in normal visual environments is determined by a complex and subtle integration of optical and non-optical factors. Mental effort associated with the visual task can modify significantly the steady-state accommodative level, but, owing to the diversity of experimental designs, there is no clear consensus on the mechanisms involved. Changes in the accommodation response of ten emmetropic subjects (mean (+/- SD) age = 20.4 +/- 4.5 years) under open- and closed-loop conditions were investigated for three levels of mental activity. (1) A passive task whereby subjects simply read letters to themselves. (2) A stimulus-dependent task (SDT) whereby subjects are instructed to respond only when the letter 'e' appears in one of a series of presentations. (3) A stimulus-independent task (SIT) whereby subjects count backwards in sevens to themselves while viewing the target. An objective infra-red (IR) optometer was used in its static mode of operation to make monocular measurements of accommodation under monocular viewing conditions. Open-loop conditions were achieved by placing a pinhole (0.5 mm diameter), drilled into an IR filter, 12 mm in front of the eye. Under closed-loop conditions the mean accommodation response for passive viewing of the near target was +3.08 D. A significant (F = 5.45 d.f. 9,18 P less than 0.005) accommodative shift induced by mental effort in the mean response of +0.17 D occurred for the SDT. The SIT induced a mean shift of -0.05 D which was not significantly different to the passive viewing response.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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Affiliation(s)
- B Winn
- Department of Vision Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, UK
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