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Kuempel CD, Arnett E, Klein CJ. Quantifying global redundant fisheries trade to streamline seafood supply chains. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0305779. [PMID: 38985725 PMCID: PMC11236095 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Seafood plays an important role in sustainably feeding the world and is one of the most traded food products globally. However sustainability improvements are often focused on its production (e.g., aquaculture, fishing) rather than trade. Here, we quantify the magnitude and extent of global 'redundant two-way' seafood trade-the exchange of the same quantity of the same taxonomic species between two countries-to examine its prevalence and potential implications across the seafood supply chain. We focused on wild-caught seafood trade and found that redundant two-way trade has increased by 43%, between 2000 and 2015, making up 3.2% (7.7 Mt) of global seafood trade during that period. Although most countries were involved in redundant two-way seafood trade (111 of 212 analyzed), the majority occurred between five trade partners: Canada and the United States (15%), Germany and the Netherlands (11.8%); Denmark and Sweden (10.6%); Germany and Denmark (7.1%); and France and Norway (7%). Nearly 50% of redundant trade is made up of just four species including Atlantic herring, Atlantic cod, Skipjack tuna and Atlantic mackerel. While deficiencies in global seafood trade data mask seasonal and product heterogeneity, redundant trade could have implications for meeting conservation and sustainable development goals. Future research should build upon these findings to explore specific environmental, economic, and social implications associated with redundant two-way trade to benefit producers and consumers within the seafood supply chain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caitlin D Kuempel
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, Australia
| | - Emma Arnett
- School of Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
| | - Carissa J Klein
- School of Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
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2
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Lakenarine R, Chhetri N, Chhetri N, Senko J. Characterization of small-scale net fisheries off the coast of Guyana. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0306332. [PMID: 38941279 PMCID: PMC11213293 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/14/2024] [Indexed: 06/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Fish stocks have declined rapidly over the past half-century due to the increased demand for seafood and unsustainable fishing practices. The incidental capture of non-target species (bycatch) is a pervasive issue in fisheries management and has led to population declines in non-target species worldwide. The fisheries sector in Guyana currently supports the livelihoods of over 10,000 Guyanese and contributes approximately 2% to the country's GDP. Bycatch is believed to be a major threat to Guyana's marine fisheries, especially the small-scale sector, due to a lack of management infrastructure and limited data and monitoring. Here, we assessed bycatch in Guyana's artisanal gillnet and Chinese seine fisheries through vessel observations and semi-structured interviews with local fishers. Most of the discarded species documented had no commercial importance to the fisheries in Guyana. Although no statistical difference was observed among the bycatch rates in the gillnet and Chinese seine fisheries, the latter generally had more discarded individuals, most of which were juveniles. The Shannon-Weiner diversity index showed a greater diversity of bycatch species in the gillnet fisheries compared to the Chinese seine. Jaccard's similarity index indicated a low similarity among the gear types. Even though most fishers were aware of bycatch, they did not view it as a major issue and were not interested in reducing their discards. We recommend a collaborative approach in exploring solutions to ensure the ecological and socioeconomic sustainability of the fisheries sector.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rovindra Lakenarine
- School for the Future of Innovation in Society, College of Global Futures, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Guyana, Georgetown, Guyana
| | - Netra Chhetri
- School for the Future of Innovation in Society, College of Global Futures, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
| | - Neha Chhetri
- School for the Future of Innovation in Society, College of Global Futures, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
| | - Jesse Senko
- School for the Future of Innovation in Society, College of Global Futures, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
- School of Ocean Futures, College of Global Futures, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America
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3
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Venugopal V, Sasidharan A, Rustad T. Green Chemistry to Valorize Seafood Side Streams: An Ecofriendly Roadmap toward Sustainability. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD CHEMISTRY 2023; 71:17494-17509. [PMID: 37938980 DOI: 10.1021/acs.jafc.3c03126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
A major challenge facing sustainable seafood production is the voluminous amounts of nutrient-rich seafood side streams consisting of by-catch, processing discards, and process effluents. There is a lack of a comprehensive model for optimal valorization of the side streams. Upcoming green chemistry-based processing has the potential to recover diverse valuable compounds from seafood side streams in an ecofriendly manner. Microbial and enzymatic bioconversions form major green processes capable of releasing biomolecules from seafood matrices under mild conditions. Novel green solvents, because of their low toxicity and recyclable nature, can extract bioactive compounds. Nonthermal technologies such as ultrasound, supercritical fluid, and membrane filtration can complement green extractions. The extracted proteins, peptides, polyunsaturated fatty acids, chitin, chitosan, and others function as nutraceuticals, food supplements, additives, etc. Green processing can address environmental, economic, and technological challenges of valorization of seafood side streams, thereby supporting sustainable seafood production. Green processing can also encourage bioenergy production. Multiple green processes, integrated in a marine biorefinery, can optimize valorization on a zero-waste trade-off, for a circular blue economy. A green chemistry-based valorization framework has the potential to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vazhiyil Venugopal
- Formerly of Food Technology Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Center, Mumbai, India 400085
| | - Abhilash Sasidharan
- Department of Fish Processing Technology, Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies, Kerala, India 682506
- Department of Biotechnology and Food Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway 7491
| | - Turid Rustad
- Department of Biotechnology and Food Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway 7491
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Cundy ME, Santana-Garcon J, McLennan AG, Ayad ME, Bayer PE, Cooper M, Corrigan S, Harrison E, Wilcox C. Seafood label quality and mislabelling rates hamper consumer choices for sustainability in Australia. Sci Rep 2023; 13:10146. [PMID: 37537170 PMCID: PMC10400555 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-37066-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Seafood mislabelling and species substitution, compounded by a convoluted seafood supply chain with significant traceability challenges, hinder efforts towards more sustainable, responsible, and ethical fishing and business practices. We conducted the largest evaluation of the quality and accuracy of labels for 672 seafood products sold in Australia, assessing six seafood groups (i.e., hoki, prawns, sharks and rays, snapper, squid and cuttlefish, and tuna) from fishmongers, restaurants, and supermarkets, including domestically caught and imported products. DNA barcoding revealed 11.8% of seafood tested did not match their label with sharks and rays, and snappers, having the highest mislabelling rate. Moreover, only 25.5% of products were labelled at a species-level, while most labels used vague common names or umbrella terms such as 'flake' and 'snapper'. These poor-quality labels had higher rates of mislabelling than species-specific labels and concealed the sale of threatened or overfished taxa, as well as products with lower nutritional quality, reduced economic value, or potential health risks. Our results highlight Australia's weak seafood labelling regulations and ambiguous non-mandatory naming conventions, which impede consumer choice for accurately represented, sustainable, and responsibly sourced seafood. We recommend strengthening labelling regulations to mitigate seafood mislabelling and substitution, ultimately improving consumer confidence when purchasing seafood.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan E Cundy
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Julia Santana-Garcon
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia.
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
| | | | - Marcelle E Ayad
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Philipp E Bayer
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Madalyn Cooper
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Shannon Corrigan
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Emily Harrison
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Chris Wilcox
- Flourishing Oceans Initiative, Minderoo Foundation, Perth, WA, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
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5
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Ye Y, Link JS. A composite fishing index to support the monitoring and sustainable management of world fisheries. Sci Rep 2023; 13:10571. [PMID: 37386054 PMCID: PMC10310702 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-37048-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Overfishing has severe social, economic, and environmental ramifications. Eliminating global overfishing is one of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs require effective policy and progress monitoring. However, current indicators are issue-specific and cannot be utilized to measure fisheries efficacy holistically. This study develops a comprehensive index that takes into account the inputs, outputs, and ecological implications of fisheries. These components are then merged to form a single composite fishing index that evaluates both total fishing pressure on the ecosystem and historical patterns. The global fishing intensity grew by a factor of eleven between 1950 and 2017, and geographical differences emerged. The fishing intensity of developed countries peaked in 1997 and has since fallen due to management, but developing countries' fishing intensity has increased continuously over the whole research period, with quasi-linear growth after 1980. Africa has experienced the most rapid expansion in fishing activity and now has the highest fishing intensity. This index takes a more comprehensive and objective look at fisheries. Its worldwide spatial-temporal comparison enables the identification of similar temporal trends across countries or regions, as well as areas of uneven development and hotspot sites for targeted policy action.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yimin Ye
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
| | - Jason S Link
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
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Hughes A, Auliya M, Altherr S, Scheffers B, Janssen J, Nijman V, Shepherd CR, D'Cruze N, Sy E, Edwards DP. Determining the sustainability of legal wildlife trade. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 341:117987. [PMID: 37178541 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/18/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Exploitation of wildlife represents one of the greatest threats to species survival according to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Whilst detrimental impacts of illegal trade are well recognised, legal trade is often equated to being sustainable despite the lack of evidence or data in the majority of cases. We review the sustainability of wildlife trade, the adequacy of tools, safeguards, and frameworks to understand and regulate trade, and identify gaps in data that undermine our ability to truly understand the sustainability of trade. We provide 183 examples showing unsustainable trade in a broad range of taxonomic groups. In most cases, neither illegal nor legal trade are supported by rigorous evidence of sustainability, with the lack of data on export levels and population monitoring data precluding true assessments of species or population-level impacts. We propose a more precautionary approach to wildlife trade and monitoring that requires those who profit from trade to provide proof of sustainability. We then identify four core areas that must be strengthened to achieve this goal: (1) rigorous data collection and analyses of populations; (2) linking trade quotas to IUCN and international accords; (3) improved databases and compliance of trade; and (4) enhanced understanding of trade bans, market forces, and species substitutions. Enacting these core areas in regulatory frameworks, including CITES, is essential to the continued survival of many threatened species. There are no winners from unsustainable collection and trade: without sustainable management not only will species or populations become extinct, but communities dependent upon these species will lose livelihoods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice Hughes
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, China.
| | - Mark Auliya
- Department of Herpetology, Leibniz Institute for the Analysis of Biodiversity Change, Zoological Research Museum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany
| | | | - Brett Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida/IFAS, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Jordi Janssen
- Monitor Conservation Research Society, PO BOX 200, Big Lake Ranch, BC, V0L 1G0, Canada
| | - Vincent Nijman
- Oxford Wildlife Trade Research Group, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, OX3 0BP, UK.
| | - Chris R Shepherd
- Monitor Conservation Research Society, PO BOX 200, Big Lake Ranch, BC, V0L 1G0, Canada
| | - Neil D'Cruze
- The Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney, UK; World Animal Protection, 222 Greys Inn Road, London, WC1X 8HB, UK
| | - Emerson Sy
- Philippine Center for Terrestrial & Aquatic Research, Manila, Philippines
| | - David P Edwards
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK.
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Di Lorenzo M, Calò A, Di Franco A, Milisenda G, Aglieri G, Cattano C, Milazzo M, Guidetti P. Small-scale fisheries catch more threatened elasmobranchs inside partially protected areas than in unprotected areas. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4381. [PMID: 35945205 PMCID: PMC9363485 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32035-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Elasmobranchs are heavily impacted by fishing. Catch statistics are grossly underestimated due to missing data from various fishery sectors such as small-scale fisheries. Marine Protected Areas are proposed as a tool to protect elasmobranchs and counter their ongoing depletion. We assess elasmobranchs caught in 1,256 fishing operations with fixed nets carried out in partially protected areas within Marine Protected Areas and unprotected areas beyond Marine Protected Areas borders at 11 locations in 6 Mediterranean countries. Twenty-four elasmobranch species were recorded, more than one-third belonging to the IUCN threatened categories (Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered). Catches per unit of effort of threatened and data deficient species were higher (with more immature individuals being caught) in partially protected areas than in unprotected areas. Our study suggests that despite partially protected areas having the potential to deliver ecological benefits for threatened elasmobranchs, poor small-scale fisheries management inside Marine Protected Areas could hinder them from achieving this important conservation objective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manfredi Di Lorenzo
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily Marine Center, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), 90149, Palermo, Italy.
| | - Antonio Calò
- Department of Earth and Marine sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 20-22, 90123, Palermo, Italy
| | - Antonio Di Franco
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily Marine Center, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), 90149, Palermo, Italy.
| | - Giacomo Milisenda
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily Marine Center, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), 90149, Palermo, Italy
| | - Giorgio Aglieri
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily Marine Center, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), 90149, Palermo, Italy
- Department of Earth and Marine sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 20-22, 90123, Palermo, Italy
- CoNISMa, Piazzale Flaminio 9, 00196, Rome, Italy
| | - Carlo Cattano
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Sicily Marine Center, Lungomare Cristoforo Colombo (complesso Roosevelt), 90149, Palermo, Italy
- Department of Earth and Marine sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 20-22, 90123, Palermo, Italy
- CoNISMa, Piazzale Flaminio 9, 00196, Rome, Italy
| | - Marco Milazzo
- Department of Earth and Marine sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 20-22, 90123, Palermo, Italy
- CoNISMa, Piazzale Flaminio 9, 00196, Rome, Italy
| | - Paolo Guidetti
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology (EMI), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn-National Institute of Marine Biology, Ecology and Biotechnology, Genoa Marine Centre, 16126, Genoa, Italy
- National Research Council, Institute for the Study of Anthropic Impact and sustainability in the Marine Environment (CNR-IAS), Via de Marini 6, 16149, Genova, Italy
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Watson JEM, Simmonds JS, Ward M, Yong CJ, Reside AE, Possingham HP, Rogers A, Carwardine J. Communicating the true challenges of saving species: response to Wiedenfeld et al. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13961. [PMID: 35707955 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Revised: 02/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- James E M Watson
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Jeremy S Simmonds
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Michelle Ward
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
- World Wild Fund for Nature, Level 4B, 340 Adelaide Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia
| | - Chuan J Yong
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - April E Reside
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
- School of Agriculture & Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Hugh P Possingham
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Andrew Rogers
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Josie Carwardine
- CSIRO, Land and Water, Dutton Park 4102, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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9
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Internal Prices and Optimal Exploitation of Natural Resources. MATHEMATICS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/math10111860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Within the framework of traditional fishery management, we propose an interpretation of natural resource prices. It leads to an economic taxation mechanism based on internal prices and reduces a complex problem of optimal long-term exploitation to a sequence of one-year optimization problems. Internal prices obey natural, economic patterns: the increase in resource amount diminishes taxes, and the rise in the number of “fishers” raises taxes. These taxes stimulate cooperative agent behavior. We consider new problems of optimal fishing, taking into account an adaptive migration of the fish population in two regions. To analyze these problems, we use evolutionary ecology models. We propose a paradoxical method to increase the catch yield through the so-called fish “luring” procedure. In this case, a kind of “giveaway” game occurs, where the region with underfishing becomes more attractive for fish and for catches in the future.
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Abstract
Biodiversity loss is a global problem, accelerated by human-induced pressures. In the marine realm, one of the major threats to species conservation, together with climate change, is overfishing. In this context, having information on the conservation status of target commercial marine fish species becomes crucial for assuring safe standards. We put together fisheries statistics from the FAO, the IUCN Red List, FishBase, and RAM Legacy databases to understand to what extent top commercial species’ conservation status has been assessed. Levels of assessment for top-fished species were higher than those for general commercial or highly commercial species, but almost half of the species have outdated assessments. We found no relation between IUCN Red List traits and FishBase Vulnerability Index, depreciating the latter value as a guidance for extinction threat. The RAM database suggests good management of more-threatened species in recent decades, but more data are required to assess whether the trend has reverted in recent years. Outdated IUCN Red List assessments can benefit from reputed stock assessments for new reassessments. The future of IUCN Red List evaluations for commercial fish species relies on integrating new parameters from fisheries sources and improved collaboration with fisheries stakeholders and managers.
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Lavender E, Fox CJ, Burrows MT. Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258184. [PMID: 34606498 PMCID: PMC8489719 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species’ distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species’ conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species’ range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050–2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edward Lavender
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
- * E-mail:
| | - Clive J. Fox
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
| | - Michael T. Burrows
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
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