Consistent population declines but idiosyncratic range shifts in Alpine orchids under global change

Can global warming be beneficial for Arctic-alpine orchid species? Outcomes from ecological niche modeling for Chamorchis alpina (L.) Rich. (Orchidaceae)

The disjunct Arctic-alpine plants that persist on isolated mountain sites at the limits of their geographical range are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change effects. Here, we investigated a remarkably fragile plant, the smallest orchid in Europe, Chamorchis alpina. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was employed not only to verify the shift in the range of the studied orchid but also to evaluate the future overlap between this plant population and its pollen vectors, Dasytes alpigradus, Formica lemani and Leptothorax acervorum. Our analyses showed that the bioclimatic preferences of the northern (Scandinavian) populations differed from those of the southern populations located in the Alps and Carpathians. Surprisingly, both C. alpina groups will expand their potential ranges under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, and additional suitable niches will become available for the northern group under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The Scandinavian populations will face significant habitat loss (36 %) in the SSP5-8.5 projection. The southern group will lose suitable niches under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (33 % and 58 %, respectively). For all pollinators of C. alpina, global warming will be favorable, and all three species will expand their potential ranges under all analyzed climate change scenarios. Our research suggests that a "middle of the road" scenario of climate change (SSP2-4.5), which assumes that socioeconomic factors follow historical trends, will not be harmful to the studied orchid or possibly other elements of Arctic-alpine flora, but all other scenarios that predict increases in CO2 emissions will result in a decreases in the coverage of suitable C. alpina niches, especially in the alpine region. At the same time, an overall expansion of alpine dwarf orchid pollen vectors is predicted, so even within a reduced geographical range, the orchid population will be able to reproduce sexually.

Forest Orchids under Future Climate Scenarios: Habitat Suitability Modelling to Inform Conservation Strategies

Orchidaceae is one of the largest and most diverse families of flowering plants in the world but also one of the most threatened. Climate change is a global driver of plant distribution and may be the cause of their disappearance in some regions. Forest orchids are associated with specific biotic and abiotic environmental factors, that influence their local presence/absence. Changes in these conditions can lead to significant differences in species distribution. We studied three forest orchids belonging to different genera (Cephalanthera, Epipactis and Limodorum) for their potential current and future distribution in a protected area (PA) of the Northern Apennines. A Habitat Suitability Model was constructed for each species based on presence-only data and the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used for the modelling. Climatic, edaphic, topographic, anthropogenic and land cover variables were used as environmental predictors and processed in the model. The aim is to identify the environmental factors that most influence the current species distribution and the areas that are likely to contain habitats suitable for providing refuge for forest orchids and ensuring their survival under future scenarios. This will allow PA authorities to decide whether to invest more resources in conserving areas that are potential refuges for threatened species.

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Elevational homogenization of mountain parasitoids across six decades

Elevational gradients are characterized by strong environmental changes within small geographical distances, providing important insights on the response of biological communities to climate change. Mountain biodiversity is particularly sensitive to climate change, given the limited capacity to colonize new areas and the competition from upshifting lowland species. Knowledge on the impact of climate change on mountain insect communities is patchy, but elevation is known to influence parasitic interactions which control insect communities and functions within ecosystems. We analyzed a European dataset of bristle flies, a parasitoid group which regulates insect herbivory in both managed and natural ecosystems. Our dataset spans six decades and multiple elevational bands, and we found marked elevational homogenization in the host specialization of bristle fly species through time. The proportion of specialized parasitoids has increased by ca. 70% at low elevations, from 17 to 29%, and has decreased by ca. 20% at high elevations, from 48 to 37%. As a result, the strong elevational gradient in bristle fly specialization observed in the 1960s has become much flatter over time. As climate warming is predicted to accelerate, the disappearance of specialized parasitoids from high elevations might become even faster. This parasitoid homogenization can reshape the ecological function of mountain insect communities, increasing the risk of herbivory outbreak at high elevations. Our results add to the mounting evidence that symbiotic species might be especially at risk from climate change: Monitoring the effects of these changes is urgently needed to define effective conservation strategies for mountain biodiversity.

Pollination mechanism in Serapias with no pollinaria reconfiguration

Orchidaceae, one of the most numerous families in the world's flora, have evolved various pollination strategies to favour cross-pollination, such as deceptive pollination and pollinarium reconfiguration. Among the terrestrial orchids of the Mediterranean, only species belonging to the genus Serapias show a strategy defined as shelter imitation. The floral elements form a tubular structure that insects use during their resting phases. The purpose of this article was to clarify the mechanisms that guarantee pollination with particular attention to the morphological interactions between orchids and pollinators and whether pollinaria reconfiguration is necessary in the promotion of cross-pollination in Serapias. Breeding system experiments and hand-pollination treatments indicated that Serapias was highly self-compatible, shows low value of natural fruit set and is pollinator limited. Time-lapse photos showed that the pollinarium had no refolding of the stipe or caudicle after its removal from the flower. The morphology of the flower determined the attack of the pollinarium on the occiput/vertex of insect. When the insect left the flower, the pollinarium was unable to encounter the stigma. When the insect made a second visit to another flower, the pollen masses of the first pollinarium ended up on the stigma and at the same time, the insect picked up a second pollinarium. Our observations and analyses suggested that morphological interactions between flower and pollinator are crucial to the success of pollination and to prevent self-pollination and thus that pollinarium reconfiguration is unnecessary in shelter deceptive orchids, such as Serapias species, for the promotion of cross-pollination. Serapias represent a case of interactions between plant and pollinator; the formation of the tubular shape of the flower is an essential preadaptation for the development of resting site mimicry originating exclusively in Serapias among Mediterranean orchids.

Red-listed plants are contracting their elevational range faster than common plants in the European Alps

Mountain ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic pressures that are reshaping the distribution of plant populations. Range dynamics of mountain plants exhibit large variability with species expanding, shifting, or shrinking their elevational range. Using a dataset of more than 1 million records of common and red-listed native and alien plants, we could reconstruct range dynamics of 1,479 species of the European Alps over the last 30 y. Red-listed species were not able to track climate warming at the leading edge of their distribution, and further experienced a strong erosion of rear margins, resulting in an overall rapid range contraction. Common natives also contracted their range, albeit less drastically, through faster upslope shift at the rear than at the leading edge. By contrast, aliens quickly expanded upslope by moving their leading edge at macroclimate change speed, while keeping their rear margins almost still. Most red-listed natives and the large majority of aliens were warm-adapted, but only aliens showed high competitive abilities to thrive under high-resource and disturbed environments. Rapid upward shifts of the rear edge of natives were probably driven by multiple environmental pressures including climate change as well as land-use change and intensification. The high environmental pressure that populations encounter in the lowlands might constrain the ability of expanding species to shift their range into more natural areas at higher elevations. As red-listed natives and aliens mostly co-occurred in the lowlands, where human pressures are at their highest, conservation should prioritize low-elevation areas of the European Alps.

New and Noteworthy Taxa of the Genus Dactylorhiza Necker ex Nevski (Orchidaceae Juss.) in Kazakhstan Flora and Its Response to Global Warming

A critical study of the herbarium material representing the orchid genus Dactylorhiza Necker ex Nevski in Kazakhstan was conducted in 2019–2020. The information on the species composition was clarified. Dactylorhiza fuchsii subsp. hebridensis (Wilmott) Soó and D. × kerneri (Soó) Soó were identified for the first time in the country. New taxa were noted for individual botanical and geographical areas. All taxa were presented in the list and annotated with studied herbarium materials from the Kazakhstan area. Based on the collected and available locations for the studied taxa, distribution modeling was carried out for the four taxa (D. incarnata, D. majalis subsp. baltica, D. salina, and D. umbrosa). Bioclimatic data for the present and future (2041–2060) based on four possible scenarios were used. The occurrence of Dactylorhiza representatives in Kazakhstan is threatened by global climate warming. It is likely that some of them may not occur in the country in the future (D. incarnata and D. majalis subsp. baltica), losing up to 99.87% of their modern range or their range may be significantly reduced (D. salina and D. umbrosa), losing up to 80.83% of their present distribution. It is worth considering global changes in planning conservation activities and identifying areas that may play a significant role in the functioning of the national flora in the future.

The effect of global warming on the Australian endemic orchid Cryptostylis leptochila and its pollinator

Ecological stability together with the suitability of abiotic conditions are crucial for long-term survival of any organism and the maintenance of biodiversity and self-sustainable ecosystems relies on species interactions. By influencing resource availability plants affect the composition of plant communities and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Plant-animal interactions are very complex and include a variety of exploitative and mutualistic relationships. One of the most important mutualistic interactions is that between plants and their pollinators. Coevolution generates clustered links between plants and their pollen vectors, but the pollination and reproductive success of plants is reduced by increase in the specialization of plant-animal interactions. One of the most specialized types of pollination is sexual deception, which occurs almost exclusively in Orchidaceae. In this form of mimicry, male insects are attracted to orchid flowers by chemical compounds that resemble insect female sex pheromones and pollinate the flowers during attempted copulations. These interactions are often species-specific with each species of orchid attracting only males of one or very few closely related species of insects. For sexually deceptive orchids the presence of a particular pollen vector is crucial for reproductive success and any reduction in pollinator availability constitutes a threat to the orchid. Because global warming is rapidly becoming the greatest threat to all organisms by re-shaping the geographical ranges of plants, animals and fungi, this paper focuses on predicting the effect of global warming on Cryptostylis leptochila, a terrestrial endemic in eastern Australia that is pollinated exclusively via pseudo copulation with Lissopimpla excelsa. As a species with a single pollinator this orchid is a perfect model for studies on the effect of global warming on plants and their pollen vectors. According to our predictions, global warming will cause a significant loss of suitable niches for C. leptochila. The potential range of this orchid will be 36%-75% smaller than currently and as a result the Eastern Highlands will become unsuitable for C. leptochila. On the other hand, some new niches will become available for this species in Tasmania. Simultaneously, climate change will result in a substantial expansion of niches suitable for the pollinator (44-82%). Currently ca. 71% of the geographical range of the orchid is also suitable for L. excelsa, therefore, almost 30% of the areas occupied by C. leptochila already lack the pollen vector. The predicted availability of the pollen vector increased under three of the climate change scenarios analysed. The predicted habitat loss is a serious threat to this orchid even with the potential colonization of Tasmania by this plant. In the reduced range of C. leptochila the pollen vector will also be present assuring fruit set in populations of this orchid. The genetic pool of the populations in New South Wales and Queensland will probably be lost.

Range Size and Niche Breadth as Predictors of Climate-Induced Habitat Change in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

While there is mounting evidence that ongoing changes in the climate system are shifting species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes, responses to climate change vary considerably between species. In general, it can be expected that species responses to climate change largely depend on how broad their ecological niches are, but evidence is still scant. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted future climate change on the availability of suitable habitat for 14 Epipactis (Orchidaceae) species, and tested whether habitat specialists would experience greater changes in the extent of their habitats than habitat generalists. We used Maxent to model the ecological niche of each species in terms of climate, soil, elevation and land-use and projected it onto climate scenarios predicted for 2061–2080. To test the hypothesis that temperate terrestrial orchid species with small ranges or small niche breadths may be at greater risk under climate change than species with wide ranges or large niche breadths, we related niche breadth in both geographic and environmental space to changes in size and location of suitable habitat. The habitat distributions of half of the species shifted northwards in future projections. The area of suitable habitat increased for eight species but decreased for the remaining six species. If expansion at the leading edge of the distribution was not possible, the area of suitable habitat decreased for 12 species. Species with wide niche breadth in geographic space experienced greater northwards expansions and higher habitat suitability scores than species with small niche breadth. Niche breadth in environmental space was not significantly related to change in habitat distribution. Overall, these results indicate that terrestrial orchid species with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under climate change than species with a limited distribution, but only if they are fully able to expand into habitats at the leading edge of their distributions.

'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change

Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change

Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally.

Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations

Human-induced climate- and land-use change have been affecting biogeographical and biodiversity patterns for the past two centuries all over the globe, resulting in increased extinction and biotic homogenization rates. High mountain ecosystems are more sensitive to these changes, which have led to physiological and phenological shifts, as well as to ecosystem processes’ deformation. Glacial relicts, such as arctic-alpine taxa, are sensitive indicators of the effects of global warming and their rear-edge populations could include warm-adapted genotypes that might prove—conservation-wise—useful in an era of unprecedented climate regimes. Despite the ongoing thermophilization in European and Mediterranean summits, it still remains unknown how past and future climate-change might affect the distributional patterns of the glacial relict, arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece, their European southernmost distributional limit. Using species distribution models, we investigated the impacts of past and future climate changes on the arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece and identified the areas comprising arctic-alpine biodiversity hotspots in Greece. Most of these species will be faced with severe range reductions in the near future, despite their innate resilience to a multitude of threats, while the species richness hotspots will experience both altitudinal and latitudinal shifts. Being long-lived perennials means that there might be an extinction-debt present in these taxa, and a prolonged stability phase could be masking the deleterious effects of climate change on them. Several ex situ conservation measures (e.g., seed collection, population augmentation) should be taken to preserve the southernmost populations of these rare arctic-alpine taxa and a better understanding of their population genetics is urgently needed.