1
|
Bastard J, Durand GA, Parenton F, Hassani Y, Dommergues L, Paireau J, Hozé N, Ruello M, Grard G, Métras R, Noël H. Reconstructing Mayotte 2018-19 Rift Valley Fever outbreak in humans by combining serological and surveillance data. COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE 2022; 2:163. [PMID: 36543938 PMCID: PMC9772320 DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00230-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis that affects large parts of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to humans through contacts with infected animals, animal products, mosquito bites or aerosols. Its pathogenesis in humans ranges from asymptomatic forms to potentially deadly haemorrhagic fevers, and the true burden of human infections during outbreaks is generally unknown. METHODS We build a model fitted to both passive surveillance data and serological data collected throughout a RVF epidemic that occurred in Mayotte Island in 2018-2019. RESULTS We estimate that RVFV infected 10,797 (95% CrI 4,728-16,127) people aged ≥15 years old in Mayotte during the entire outbreak, among which only 1.2% (0.67%-2.2%) were reported to the syndromic surveillance system. RVFV IgG seroprevalence in people ≥15 years old was estimated to increase from 5.5% (3.6%-7.7%) before the outbreak to 12.9% (10.4%-16.3%) thereafter. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that a large part of RVFV infected people present subclinical forms of the disease and/or do not reach medical care that could lead to their detection by the surveillance system. This may threaten the implementation of exhaustive RVF surveillance and adequate control programs in affected countries.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Bastard
- grid.493975.50000 0004 5948 8741Santé publique France, French national public health agency, F-94415 Saint-Maurice, France
| | - Guillaume André Durand
- grid.476258.aFrench Armed Forces Biomedical Research Institute, National Reference Laboratory for Arboviruses, Marseille, France ,grid.5399.60000 0001 2176 4817Unité des Virus Émergents (UVE: Aix-Marseille Univ-IRD 190-Inserm 1207), Marseille, France
| | - Fanny Parenton
- grid.493975.50000 0004 5948 8741Santé publique France, French national public health agency, F-94415 Saint-Maurice, France
| | - Youssouf Hassani
- grid.493975.50000 0004 5948 8741Santé publique France, French national public health agency, F-94415 Saint-Maurice, France
| | | | - Juliette Paireau
- grid.493975.50000 0004 5948 8741Santé publique France, French national public health agency, F-94415 Saint-Maurice, France ,Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Nathanaël Hozé
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Marc Ruello
- grid.493975.50000 0004 5948 8741Santé publique France, French national public health agency, F-94415 Saint-Maurice, France
| | - Gilda Grard
- grid.476258.aFrench Armed Forces Biomedical Research Institute, National Reference Laboratory for Arboviruses, Marseille, France ,grid.5399.60000 0001 2176 4817Unité des Virus Émergents (UVE: Aix-Marseille Univ-IRD 190-Inserm 1207), Marseille, France
| | - Raphaëlle Métras
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP, UMRS 1136), Paris, France
| | - Harold Noël
- grid.493975.50000 0004 5948 8741Santé publique France, French national public health agency, F-94415 Saint-Maurice, France
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Biggs JR, Sy AK, Brady OJ, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Tu YH, Reyes MAJ, Quinones MA, Jones-Warner W, Ashall J, Avelino FL, Sucaldito NL, Tandoc AO, Cutiongco-de la Paz E, Capeding MRZ, Padilla CD, Hibberd ML, Hafalla JCR. Serological Evidence of Widespread Zika Transmission across the Philippines. Viruses 2021; 13:1441. [PMID: 34452307 PMCID: PMC8402696 DOI: 10.3390/v13081441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Revised: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) exposure across flavivirus-endemic countries, including the Philippines, remains largely unknown despite sporadic case reporting and environmental suitability for transmission. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2016, 997 serum samples were randomly selected from suspected dengue (DENV) case reports across the Philippines and assayed for serological markers of short-term (IgM) and long-term (IgG) ZIKV exposure. Using mixture models, we re-evaluated ZIKV IgM/G seroprevalence thresholds and used catalytic models to quantify the force of infection (attack rate, AR) from age-accumulated ZIKV exposure. While we observed extensive ZIKV/DENV IgG cross-reactivity, not all individuals with active DENV presented with elevated ZIKV IgG, and a proportion of dengue-negative cases (DENV IgG-) were ZIKV IgG-positive (14.3%, 9/63). We identified evidence of long-term, yet not short-term, ZIKV exposure across Philippine regions (ZIKV IgG+: 31.5%, 314/997) which was geographically uncorrelated with DENV exposure. In contrast to the DENV AR (12.7% (95%CI: 9.1-17.4%)), the ZIKV AR was lower (5.7% (95%CI: 3-11%)) across the country. Our results provide evidence of widespread ZIKV exposure across the Philippines and suggest the need for studies to identify ZIKV infection risk factors over time to better prepare for potential future outbreaks.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph R. Biggs
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (W.J.-W.); (J.A.); (M.L.H.); (J.C.R.H.)
| | - Ava Kristy Sy
- Department of Virology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines; (A.K.S.); (M.A.J.R.); (M.A.Q.); (A.O.T.)
- Dengue Study Group, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines;
| | - Oliver J. Brady
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (O.J.B.); (A.J.K.); (S.F.)
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (O.J.B.); (A.J.K.); (S.F.)
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (O.J.B.); (A.J.K.); (S.F.)
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Yun-Hung Tu
- Department of Molecular Parasitology and Tropical Diseases, Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11031, Taiwan;
| | - Mary Anne Joy Reyes
- Department of Virology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines; (A.K.S.); (M.A.J.R.); (M.A.Q.); (A.O.T.)
- Dengue Study Group, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines;
| | - Mary Ann Quinones
- Department of Virology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines; (A.K.S.); (M.A.J.R.); (M.A.Q.); (A.O.T.)
- Dengue Study Group, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines;
| | - William Jones-Warner
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (W.J.-W.); (J.A.); (M.L.H.); (J.C.R.H.)
| | - James Ashall
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (W.J.-W.); (J.A.); (M.L.H.); (J.C.R.H.)
| | - Ferchito L. Avelino
- Department of Health, Philippine Epidemiology Bureau, Manila 1003, Philippines; (F.L.A.); (N.L.S.)
| | - Nemia L. Sucaldito
- Department of Health, Philippine Epidemiology Bureau, Manila 1003, Philippines; (F.L.A.); (N.L.S.)
| | - Amado O. Tandoc
- Department of Virology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines; (A.K.S.); (M.A.J.R.); (M.A.Q.); (A.O.T.)
| | - Eva Cutiongco-de la Paz
- Institute of Human Genetics, University of the Philippines, Manila 1000, Philippines; (E.C.-d.l.P.); (C.D.P.)
- Philippine Genome Centre, University of the Philippines, Manila 1101, Philippines
| | - Maria Rosario Z. Capeding
- Dengue Study Group, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Manila 1781, Philippines;
- Institute of Human Genetics, University of the Philippines, Manila 1000, Philippines; (E.C.-d.l.P.); (C.D.P.)
| | - Carmencita D. Padilla
- Institute of Human Genetics, University of the Philippines, Manila 1000, Philippines; (E.C.-d.l.P.); (C.D.P.)
- Philippine Genome Centre, University of the Philippines, Manila 1101, Philippines
| | - Martin L. Hibberd
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (W.J.-W.); (J.A.); (M.L.H.); (J.C.R.H.)
- Institute of Human Genetics, University of the Philippines, Manila 1000, Philippines; (E.C.-d.l.P.); (C.D.P.)
- Philippine Genome Centre, University of the Philippines, Manila 1101, Philippines
| | - Julius Clemence R. Hafalla
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; (W.J.-W.); (J.A.); (M.L.H.); (J.C.R.H.)
| |
Collapse
|