Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways

Is tree planting an effective strategy for climate change mitigation?

The world's forests store large amounts of carbon (C), and growing forests can reduce atmospheric CO2 by storing C in their biomass. This has provided the impetus for world-wide tree planting initiatives to offset fossil-fuel emissions. However, forests interact with their environment in complex and multifaceted ways that must be considered for a balanced assessment of the value of planting trees. First, one needs to consider the potential reversibility of C sequestration in trees through either harvesting or tree death from natural factors. If carbon storage is only temporary, future temperatures will actually be higher than without tree plantings, but cumulative warming will be reduced, contributing both positively and negatively to future climate-change impacts. Alternatively, forests could be used for bioenergy or wood products to replace fossil-fuel use which would obviate the need to consider the possible reversibility of any benefits. Forests also affect the Earth's energy balance through either absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation. As forests generally absorb more incoming radiation than bare ground or grasslands, this constitutes an important warming effect that substantially reduces the benefit of C storage, especially in snow-covered regions. Forests also affect other local ecosystem services, such as conserving biodiversity, modifying water and nutrient cycles, and preventing erosion that could be either beneficial or harmful depending on specific circumstances. Considering all these factors, tree plantings may be beneficial or detrimental for mitigating climate-change impacts, but the range of possibilities makes generalisations difficult. Their net benefit depends on many factors that differ between specific circumstances. One can, therefore, neither uncritically endorse tree planting everywhere, nor condemn it as counter-productive. Our aim is to provide key information to enable appropriate assessments to be made under specific circumstances. We conclude our discussion by providing a step-by-step guide for assessing the merit of tree plantings under specific circumstances.

Computational approaches for modeling and structural design of biological systems: A comprehensive review

The convergence of biology and computational science has ushered in a revolutionary era, revolutionizing our understanding of biological systems and providing novel solutions to global problems. The field of genetic engineering has facilitated the manipulation of genetic codes, thus providing opportunities for the advancement of innovative disease therapies and environmental enhancements. The emergence of bio-molecular simulation represents a significant advancement in this particular field, as it offers the ability to gain microscopic insights into molecular-level biological processes over extended periods. Biomolecular simulation plays a crucial role in advancing our comprehension of organismal mechanisms by establishing connections between molecular structures, interactions, and biological functions. The field of computational biology has demonstrated its significance in deciphering intricate biological enigmas through the utilization of mathematical models and algorithms. The process of decoding the human genome has resulted in the advancement of therapies for a wide range of genetic disorders, while the simulation of biological systems contributes to the identification of novel pharmaceutical compounds. The potential of biomolecular simulation and computational biology is vast and limitless. As the exploration of the underlying principles that govern living organisms progresses, the potential impact of this understanding on cancer treatment, environmental restoration, and other domains is anticipated to be transformative. This review examines the notable advancements achieved in the field of computational biology, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize the comprehension and enhancement of biological systems.

Measurement of carbon effect in land consolidation projects and evaluation of low-carbon promotion paths: a case study of Wudi County, Shandong Province, China

Against the backdrop of China's "double carbon" objective, the exploration of low-carbon land consolidation has become a prominent area of focus for enhancing the development of ecological civilization. In this study, three typical projects at different time points (2016, 2019, and 2022) in Wudi County were selected to measure the carbon effect of land consolidation from four perspectives: artificial and industrial materials, mechanical shift consumption, land use structure, and farmland ecosystem. Based on the calculation of carbon effect of land consolidation by using carbon emission coefficient method, the changes of land use structure and carbon storage of farmland ecosystem before and after land consolidation were corrected by using GIS tools and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) model based on remote sensing technology, and the carbon emission intensity of each land consolidation project was finally obtained. The study summarized the influencing factors of carbon emissions through the above analysis and uses the fuzzy interpretation structure (FISM) model to provide the hierarchy of influencing factors of carbon emissions, thus proposing a low-carbon promotion path for land consolidation. The findings of this study can serve as a useful reference for low-carbon land consolidation efforts. The results showed that (1) the first, second, and third projects emitted 6140.06 t, 1243.78 t, and 17,604.62 t of carbon, respectively. Among them, the largest contributors to these emissions were labor and industrial materials, followed by mechanical shift; land use structure and farmland ecosystem were the main sources of carbon sinks and have a positive impact on the carbon cycle. (2) The carbon emission intensity of project one, project two, and project three after standardization is 0.26, 0.49, and 0.25, respectively, which are all at a high level. (3) According to the FISM model categorized 15 low-carbon upgrading paths, it was recommended that the government take a leading role in Wudi County by developing a scientific and rational construction plan. Additionally, efforts were made to actively protect farmland and forest land from destruction, reduce energy and material consumption, increase carbon storage in the farmland ecosystem, and promote low carbonization of land consolidation to the fullest extent possible.

Circular wood use can accelerate global decarbonisation but requires cross-sectoral coordination

Predominantly linear use of wood curtails the potential climate-change mitigation contribution of forestry value-chains. Using lifecycle assessment, we show that more cascading and especially circular uses of wood can provide immediate and sustained mitigation by reducing demand for virgin wood, which increases forest carbon sequestration and storage, and benefits from substitution for fossil-fuel derived products, reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. By United Kingdom example, the circular approach of recycling medium-density fibreboard delivers 75% more cumulative climate-change mitigation by 2050, compared with business-as-usual. Early mitigation achieved by circular and cascading wood use complements lagged mitigation achieved by afforestation; and in combination these measures could cumulatively mitigate 258.8 million tonnes CO2e by 2050. Despite the clear benefits of implementing circular economy principles, we identify many functional barriers impeding the structural reorganisation needed for such complex system change, and propose enablers to transform the forestry value-chain into an effective societal change system and lead to coherent action.

Carbon balance of plywood from a social reforestation program in Indonesia

Social reforestation programs plant trees on degraded, uncultivated land in low-income regions to allow the local population to generate income from selling wood products and-in case of agroforestry systems-to grow food. For fundraising it is of interest to demonstrate not only positive social impacts but also environmental ones. Proving negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would allow the programs to enter the market for carbon offsetting projects and liberate further funding. In a case study, a social reforestation program in Kalimantan, Indonesia, is analyzed. GHG emissions (according to ISO 14067, PAS 2050 and EU ILCD Handbook for LCA) of the main product, laminated veneer lumber plywood, are determined as 622 and 21 kg CO2-e/m3 for short-term and long-term (above 100 years) plywood use, respectively. Switching to lignin-based resins and renewable electricity could reduce emissions down to - 363 kg CO2-e/m3 for long-term use. The analyzed agroforestry system produces almost carbon-neutral plywood today and could be climate positive in the mid-term.

Transitional forestry in New Zealand: re-evaluating the design and management of forest systems through the lens of forest purpose

Forestry management worldwide has become increasingly effective at obtaining high timber yields from productive forests. In New Zealand, a focus on improving an increasingly successful and largely Pinus radiata plantation forestry model over the last 150 years has resulted in some of the most productive timber forests in the temperate zone. In contrast to this success, the full range of forested landscapes across New Zealand, including native forests, are impacted by an array of pressures from introduced pests, diseases, and a changing climate, presenting a collective risk of losses in biological, social and economic value. As the national government policies incentivise reforestation and afforestation, the social acceptability of some forms of newly planted forests is also being challenged. Here, we review relevant literature in the area of integrated forest landscape management to optimise forests as nature-based solutions, presenting 'transitional forestry' as a model design and management paradigm appropriate to a range of forest types, where forest purpose is placed at the heart of decision making. We use New Zealand as a case study region, describing how this purpose-led transitional forestry model can benefit a cross section of forest types, from industrialised forest plantations to dedicated conservation forests and a range of multiple-purpose forests in between. Transitional forestry is an ongoing multi-decade process of change from current 'business-as-usual' forest management to future systems of forest management, embedded across a continuum of forest types. This holistic framework incorporates elements to enhance efficiencies of timber production, improve overall forest landscape resilience, and reduce some potential negative environmental impacts of commercial plantation forestry, while allowing the ecosystem functioning of commercial and non-commercial forests to be maximised, with increased public and biodiversity conservation value. Implementation of transitional forestry addresses tensions that arise between meeting climate mitigation targets and improving biodiversity criteria through afforestation, alongside increasing demand for forest biomass feedstocks to meet the demands of near-term bioenergy and bioeconomy goals. As ambitious government international targets are set for reforestation and afforestation using both native and exotic species, there is an increasing opportunity to make such transitions via integrated thinking that optimises forest values across a continuum of forest types, while embracing the diversity of ways in which such targets can be reached.

Global warming accelerates soil heterotrophic respiration

Carbon efflux from soils is the largest terrestrial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet it is still one of the most uncertain fluxes in the Earth's carbon budget. A dominant component of this flux is heterotrophic respiration, influenced by several environmental factors, most notably soil temperature and moisture. Here, we develop a mechanistic model from micro to global scale to explore how changes in soil water content and temperature affect soil heterotrophic respiration. Simulations, laboratory measurements, and field observations validate the new approach. Estimates from the model show that heterotrophic respiration has been increasing since the 1980s at a rate of about 2% per decade globally. Using future projections of surface temperature and soil moisture, the model predicts a global increase of about 40% in heterotrophic respiration by the end of the century under the worst-case emission scenario, where the Arctic region is expected to experience a more than two-fold increase, driven primarily by declining soil moisture rather than temperature increase.

Impact of land consolidation on agricultural decarbonization: Estimation of changes in carbon dioxide emissions due to farm transport

Areas used for agriculture are a large source of carbon emissions, but there is great potential for reducing them. Land consolidation, through the comprehensive reorganization of the spatial arrangement of farms, can reduce emissions as a result of reducing fuel consumption. The subjects of this study are the veracity of this statement and the scope of variation in the potential reduction of carbon emissions. The analysis covered six land consolidation projects in Poland and Turkey, for several agricultural models that differ in the level of fuel consumption. Changes in agricultural road layout resulting from the implementation of land consolidation projects and changes in the number of farm plots and their spatial distribution were considered. The study considered several different levels and structures of fuel consumption on farms. The applied methodology is based on analysis of changes in distance to fields resulting from land consolidation projects, which are then expressed as changes in fuel consumption. The obtained emission reduction results for the studied land consolidation projects were diverse and range from 0.3 to 170 kg CO₂/ha/year. The reduction in fuel consumption on farms at the level of individual villages reached a maximum of 32 %, while the average value of this reduction in the entire surveyed set was 12.5 %. The proposed approach increases the accuracy of existing methods for estimating the long-term balance of carbon emissions and carbon accumulation related to the implementation of land consolidation projects. The observed emission reduction values can be considered a significant economic and ecological effect because the effects of these projects persist for at least several decades.

Reconciling climate action with the need for biodiversity protection, restoration and rehabilitation

Globally, we are faced with a climate crisis that requires urgent transition to a low-carbon economy. Simultaneously, the biodiversity crisis demands equally urgent action to prevent further species loss and promote restoration and rehabilitation of ecosystems. Climate action itself must prevent further pressures on biodiversity and options for synergistic gains for both climate and biodiversity change mitigation and adaptation need to be explored and implemented. Here, we review the key potential impacts of climate mitigation measures in energy and land-use on biodiversity, including the development of renewable energy such as offshore and onshore wind, solar, and bioenergy. We also assess the potential impacts of climate action driven afforestation and native habitat rehabilitation and restoration. We apply our findings to Ireland as a unique case-study as the government develops a coordinated response to climate and biodiversity change through declaration of a joint climate and biodiversity emergency and inclusion of biodiversity in key climate change legislation and the national Climate Action Plan. However, acknowledgement of these intertwined crises is only a first step; implementation of synergistic solutions requires careful planning. We demonstrate how synergy between climate and biodiversity action can be gained through explicit consideration of the effects of climate change mitigation strategies, such as energy infrastructure development and land-use change, on biodiversity. We identify several potential "win-win" strategies for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. For Ireland, these include increasing offshore wind capacity, rehabilitating natural areas surrounding onshore wind turbines, and limiting the development of solar photovoltaics to the built environment. Ultimately, climate mitigation should be implemented in a "Right Action, Right Place" framework to maximise positive biodiversity benefits. This review provides one of the first examples of how national climate actions can be implemented in a biodiversity-conscious way to initiate discussion about synergistic solutions for both climate and biodiversity.

The crucial interactions between climate and soil

Since the birth of soil science, climate has been recognized as a soil-forming factor, along with parent rock, time, topography, and organisms (from which humans were later kept distinct), often prevalent on the other factors on the very long term. But the climate is in turns affected by soils and their management. This paper describes the interrelationships between climate - and its current change - and soil, focusing on each single factor of its formation. Parent material governs, primarily through the particle size distribution, the capacity of soil to retain water and organic matter, which are two main soil-related drivers of the climate. Time is the only unmanageable soil-forming factor; however, extreme climatic phenomena can upset the soil or even dismantle it, so as to slow down the pathway of pedogenesis or even make it start from scratch. Topography, which drives the pedogenesis mostly controlling rainfall distribution - with repercussions also on the climate - is not anymore a given factor because humans have often become a shaper of it. Indeed humans now play a key role in affecting in a plethora of ways those soil properties that most deal with climate. The abundance and diversity of the other organisms are generally positive to soil quality and as a buffer for climate, but there are troubling evidences that climate change is decreasing soil biodiversity. The corpus of researches on mutual feedback between climate and soil has essentially demonstrated that the best soil management in terms of climate change mitigation must aim at promoting vegetation growth and maximizing soil organic matter content and water retention. Some ongoing virtuous initiatives (e.g., the Great Green Wall of Africa) and farming systems (e.g., the conservation agriculture) should be extended as much as possible worldwide to enable the soil to make the greatest contribution to climate change mitigation.

Assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. Aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas. Since it will not be possible to optimise across the 17 SDGs while simultaneously transitioning to low-carbon societies, it will be necessary to implement policies to address the most critical aspects of the agendas and understand the implications for the other dimensions. Here, we rely on a modelling exercise to analyse the long-term implications of a variety of Paris-compliant mitigation strategies suggested in the recent scientific literature on multiple dimensions of the SDG Agenda. The strategies included rely on technological solutions such as renewable energy deployment or carbon capture and storage, nature-based solutions such as afforestation and behavioural changes in the demand side. Results for a selection of energy-environment SDGs suggest that some mitigation pathways could have negative implications on food and water prices, forest cover and increase pressure on water resources depending on the strategy followed, while renewable energy shares, household energy costs, ambient air pollution and yield impacts could be improved simultaneously while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, results indicate that promoting changes in the demand side could be beneficial to limit potential trade-offs.

Silvopastoral systems for offsetting livestock emissions in the tropics: a case study of a dairy farm in Costa Rica

Ways are being sought to reduce the environmental impact of ruminant livestock farming. Integration of trees into farming systems has been advocated as a measure to deliver ecosystem services, inter alia climate regulation and adaptation, water quality regulation, provisioning of fibre, fuel and habitats to support biodiversity. Despite the rapid expansion of cattle farming in the tropics, notably in Latin America, there is little robust evidence on the extent to which trees are able to mitigate the effects of cattle farming in this ecological zone. This article describes a case study conducted on a large, specialised dairy farm in Costa Rica, where two-thirds of the field boundaries are live tree fences. For the first time, this study quantifies the offset potential of trees by estimating rate of carbon sequestration in a silvopastoral system (SPS) in the tropics. It was found that over a 30-month interval, trees sequestered 1.43 Mg C ha^-1 year^-1 above and below ground. Attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) (cradle to farm gate) was applied to calculate the carbon footprint of milk produced on the farm for the years 2016 to 2018. Trees in live fences offset 21-37% of milk footprints, resulting in residual net footprints of 0.75±0.25 to 0.84±0.26 kg CO₂ eq. kg^-1 milk. Exclusion of life cycle emissions that may not fall within national emission inventory accounting (e.g. fertiliser manufacture and feed production) increased the mean offset from 27 to 34% of gross milk footprint. Although based on temporally limited data (30 months), our findings indicate that a live fence SPS could play an important role in short- to medium-term climate mitigation from livestock production, buying time for deployment of long-term mitigation and adaptation planning.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00834-z.

Formulating Zwitterionic, Responsive Polymers for Designing Smart Soils

The design of new remediation strategies and materials for treating saline-alkaline soils is of fundamental and practical importantance for many applications. Conventional soil remediation strategies mainly focus on the development of fertilizers or additives for water, nutrient, and heavy metal managements in soils, but they often overlook a soil sensing function for early detection of salinization/alkalization levels toward optimal and timely soil remediation. Here, new smart soils, structurally consisting of the upper signal soil and the bottom hygroscopic bed and chemically including zwitterionic, thermo-responsive poly(NIPAM-co-VPES) and poly(NIPAM-co-SBAA) aerogels in each soil layer are formulated. Upon salinization, the resultant smart soils exhibit multiple superior capacities for reducing the soil salinity and alkalinity through ion exchange, controlling the water cycling, modulating the degradation of pyridine-base ligands into water-soluble, nitrogenous salts-rich ingredients for soil fertility, and real-time monitoring salinized soils via pH-induced allochroic color changes. Further studies of plant growth in smart soils with or without salinization treatments confirm a synergy effect of soil remediation and soil sensing on facilitating the growth of plants and increasing the saline-alkaline tolerance of plants. The esign concept of smart soils can be further expanded for soil remediation and assessment.

Pollen-Based Maps of Past Regional Vegetation Cover in Europe Over 12 Millennia—Evaluation and Potential

Realistic and accurate reconstructions of past vegetation cover are necessary to study past environmental changes. This is important since the effects of human land-use changes (e.g. agriculture, deforestation and afforestation/reforestation) on biodiversity and climate are still under debate. Over the last decade, development, validation, and application of pollen-vegetation relationship models have made it possible to estimate plant abundance from fossil pollen data at both local and regional scales. In particular, the REVEALS model has been applied to produce datasets of past regional plant cover at 1° spatial resolution at large subcontinental scales (North America, Europe, and China). However, such reconstructions are spatially discontinuous due to the discrete and irregular geographical distribution of sites (lakes and peat bogs) from which fossil pollen records have been produced. Therefore, spatial statistical models have been developed to create continuous maps of past plant cover using the REVEALS-based land cover estimates. In this paper, we present the first continuous time series of spatially complete maps of past plant cover across Europe during the Holocene (25 time windows covering the period from 11.7 k BP to present). We use a spatial-statistical model for compositional data to interpolate REVEALS-based estimates of three major land-cover types (LCTs), i.e., evergreen trees, summer-green trees and open land (grasses, herbs and low shrubs); producing spatially complete maps of the past coverage of these three LCTs. The spatial model uses four auxiliary data sets—latitude, longitude, elevation, and independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change based on per-capita land-use estimates (“standard” KK10 scenarios)—to improve model performance for areas with complex topography or few observations. We evaluate the resulting reconstructions for selected time windows using present day maps from the European Forest Institute, cross validate, and compare the results with earlier pollen-based spatially-continuous estimates for five selected time windows, i.e., 100 BP-present, 350–100 BP, 700–350 BP, 3.2–2.7 k BP, and 6.2–5.7 k BP. The evaluations suggest that the statistical model provides robust spatial reconstructions. From the maps we observe the broad change in the land-cover of Europe from dominance of naturally open land and persisting remnants of continental ice in the Early Holocene to a high fraction of forest cover in the Mid Holocene, and anthropogenic deforestation in the Late Holocene. The temporal and spatial continuity is relevant for land-use, land-cover, and climate research.

Poplar's Waterlogging Resistance Modeling and Evaluating: Exploring and Perfecting the Feasibility of Machine Learning Methods in Plant Science

Floods, as one of the most common disasters in the natural environment, have caused huge losses to human life and property. Predicting the flood resistance of poplar can effectively help researchers select seedlings scientifically and resist floods precisely. Using machine learning algorithms, models of poplar's waterlogging tolerance were established and evaluated. First of all, the evaluation indexes of poplar's waterlogging tolerance were analyzed and determined. Then, significance testing, correlation analysis, and three feature selection algorithms (Hierarchical clustering, Lasso, and Stepwise regression) were used to screen photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, and environmental parameters. Based on this, four machine learning methods, BP neural network regression (BPR), extreme learning machine regression (ELMR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest regression (RFR) were used to predict the flood resistance of poplar. The results show that random forest regression (RFR) and support vector regression (SVR) have high precision. On the test set, the coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.8351 and 0.6864, the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.2016 and 0.2780, and the mean absolute error (MAE) is 0.1782 and 0.2031, respectively. Therefore, random forest regression (RFR) and support vector regression (SVR) can be given priority to predict poplar flood resistance.

Water-Dispersible Nanocatalysts with Engineered Structures: The New Generation of Nanomaterials for Energy-Efficient CO2 Capture

The high energy demand of CO₂ absorption-desorption technologies has significantly inhibited their industrial utilization and implementation of the Paris Climate Accord. Catalytic solvent regeneration is of considerable interest due to its low operating temperature and high energy efficiency. Of the catalysts available, heterogeneous catalysts have exhibited relatively poor performances and are hindered by other challenges, which have slowed their large-scale deployment. Herein, we report a facile and eco-friendly approach for synthesizing water-dispersible Fe₃O₄ nanocatalysts coated with a wide range of amino acids (12 representative molecules) in aqueous media. The acidic properties of water-dispersible nanocatalysts can be easily tuned by introducing different functional groups during the hydrothermal synthesis procedure. We demonstrate that the prepared nanocatalysts can be used in energy-efficient CO₂ capture plants with ease-of-use, at very low concentrations (0.1 wt %) and with extra-high efficiencies (up to ∼75% energy reductions). They can be applied in a range of solutions, including amino acids (i.e., short-chain, long-chain, and cyclic) and amines (i.e., primary, tertiary, and primary-tertiary mixture). Considering the superiority of the presented water-dispersible nanocatalysts, this technology is expected to provide a new pathway for the development of energy-efficient CO₂ capture technologies.

Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality

Global development has been heavily reliant on the overexploitation of natural resources since the Industrial Revolution. With the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, and other forms of land-use change, anthropogenic activities have contributed to the ever-increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, causing global climate change. In response to the worsening global climate change, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is the most pressing task on the planet. To this end, it is of utmost importance and a significant challenge to reform the current production systems to reduce GHG emissions and promote the capture of CO2 from the atmosphere. Herein, we review innovative technologies that offer solutions achieving carbon (C) neutrality and sustainable development, including those for renewable energy production, food system transformation, waste valorization, C sink conservation, and C-negative manufacturing. The wealth of knowledge disseminated in this review could inspire the global community and drive the further development of innovative technologies to mitigate climate change and sustainably support human activities.