Social stratification without genetic differentiation at the site of Kulubnarti in Christian Period Nubia

Testing times: disentangling admixture histories in recent and complex demographies using ancient DNA

Our knowledge of human evolutionary history has been greatly advanced by paleogenomics. Since the 2020s, the study of ancient DNA has increasingly focused on reconstructing the recent past. However, the accuracy of paleogenomic methods in resolving questions of historical and archaeological importance amidst the increased demographic complexity and decreased genetic differentiation remains an open question. We evaluated the performance and behavior of two commonly used methods, qpAdm and the f3-statistic, on admixture inference under a diversity of demographic models and data conditions. We performed two complementary simulation approaches-firstly exploring a wide demographic parameter space under four simple demographic models of varying complexities and configurations using branch-length data from two chromosomes-and secondly, we analyzed a model of Eurasian history composed of 59 populations using whole-genome data modified with ancient DNA conditions such as SNP ascertainment, data missingness, and pseudohaploidization. We observe that population differentiation is the primary factor driving qpAdm performance. Notably, while complex gene flow histories influence which models are classified as plausible, they do not reduce overall performance. Under conditions reflective of the historical period, qpAdm most frequently identifies the true model as plausible among a small candidate set of closely related populations. To increase the utility for resolving fine-scaled hypotheses, we provide a heuristic for further distinguishing between candidate models that incorporates qpAdm model P-values and f3-statistics. Finally, we demonstrate a significant performance increase for qpAdm using whole-genome branch-length f2-statistics, highlighting the potential for improved demographic inference that could be achieved with future advancements in f-statistic estimations.

Ancient genomic analysis of a Chinese hereditary elite from the Northern and Southern Dynasties

China's Northern and Southern Dynasties period (3rd-6th centuries AD) marked a significant era of ethnic integration in northern China. However, previous ancient DNA studies have primarily focused on northern ethnic groups, with limited research on the genetic formation of the hereditary elite family, especially considering their abundant archaeological record and clear material identity. In this study, we obtained the ancient genome of a hereditary elite family, Gao Bin (, 503-572 AD), at 0.6473-fold coverage with 475132 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on the 1240k panel. His mitochondrial haplogroup belonged to Z4 and Y-haplogroup to O1a1a2b-F2444*. The genetic profile of Gao Bin was most similar to that of the northern Han Chinese. He could be modelled as deriving all his ancestry from Late Neolithic to Iron Age Yellow River farmers without influence from Northeast Asia, Korea, or the Mongolian Plateau. Our study sheds light on the genetic formation of hereditary elite families in the context of the Southern and Northern Dynasties ethnic integration.

Accurate Bayesian inference of sex chromosome karyotypes and sex-linked scaffolds from low-depth sequencing data

The identification of sex-linked scaffolds and the genetic sex of individuals, i.e. their sex karyotype, is a fundamental step in population genomic studies. If sex-linked scaffolds are known, single individuals may be sexed based on read counts of next-generation sequencing data. If both sex-linked scaffolds as well as sex karyotypes are unknown, as is often the case for non-model organisms, they have to be jointly inferred. For both cases, current methods rely on arbitrary thresholds, which limits their power for low-depth data. In addition, most current methods are limited to euploid sex karyotypes (XX and XY). Here we develop BeXY, a fully Bayesian method to jointly infer the posterior probabilities for each scaffold to be autosomal, X- or Y-linked and for each individual to be any of the sex karyotypes XX, XY, X0, XXX, XXY, XYY and XXYY. If the sex-linked scaffolds are known, it also identifies autosomal trisomies and estimates the sex karyotype posterior probabilities for single individuals. As we show with downsampling experiments, BeXY has higher power than all existing methods. It accurately infers the sex karyotype of ancient human samples with as few as 20,000 reads and accurately infers sex-linked scaffolds from data sets of just a handful of samples or with highly imbalanced sex ratios, also in the case of low-quality reference assemblies. We illustrate the power of BeXY by applying it to both whole-genome shotgun and target enrichment sequencing data of ancient and modern humans, as well as several non-model organisms.

Medieval DNA from Soqotra points to Eurasian origins of an isolated population at the crossroads of Africa and Arabia

Soqotra, an island situated at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden in the northwest Indian Ocean between Africa and Arabia, is home to ~60,000 people subsisting through fishing and semi-nomadic pastoralism who speak a Modern South Arabian language. Most of what is known about Soqotri history derives from writings of foreign travellers who provided little detail about local people, and the geographic origins and genetic affinities of early Soqotri people has not yet been investigated directly. Here we report genome-wide data from 39 individuals who lived between ~650 and 1750 CE at six locations across the island and document strong genetic connections between Soqotra and the similarly isolated Hadramawt region of coastal South Arabia that likely reflects a source for the peopling of Soqotra. Medieval Soqotri can be modelled as deriving ~86% of their ancestry from a population such as that found in the Hadramawt today, with the remaining ~14% best proxied by an Iranian-related source with up to 2% ancestry from the Indian sub-continent, possibly reflecting genetic exchanges that occurred along with archaeologically documented trade from these regions. In contrast to all other genotyped populations of the Arabian Peninsula, genome-level analysis of the medieval Soqotri is consistent with no sub-Saharan African admixture dating to the Holocene. The deep ancestry of people from medieval Soqotra and the Hadramawt is also unique in deriving less from early Holocene Levantine farmers and more from groups such as Late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers from the Levant (Natufians) than other mainland Arabians. This attests to migrations by early farmers having less impact in southernmost Arabia and Soqotra and provides compelling evidence that there has not been complete population replacement between the Pleistocene and Holocene throughout the Arabian Peninsula. Medieval Soqotra harboured a small population that showed qualitatively different marriage practices from modern Soqotri, with first-cousin unions occurring significantly less frequently than today.

The Allen Ancient DNA Resource (AADR) a curated compendium of ancient human genomes

More than two hundred papers have reported genome-wide data from ancient humans. While the raw data for the vast majority are fully publicly available testifying to the commitment of the paleogenomics community to open data, formats for both raw data and meta-data differ. There is thus a need for uniform curation and a centralized, version-controlled compendium that researchers can download, analyze, and reference. Since 2019, we have been maintaining the Allen Ancient DNA Resource (AADR), which aims to provide an up-to-date, curated version of the world's published ancient human DNA data, represented at more than a million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at which almost all ancient individuals have been assayed. The AADR has gone through six public releases at the time of writing and review of this manuscript, and crossed the threshold of >10,000 individuals with published genome-wide ancient DNA data at the end of 2022. This note is intended as a citable descriptor of the AADR.

A genetic history of the Balkans from Roman frontier to Slavic migrations

The rise and fall of the Roman Empire was a socio-political process with enormous ramifications for human history. The Middle Danube was a crucial frontier and a crossroads for population and cultural movement. Here, we present genome-wide data from 136 Balkan individuals dated to the 1st millennium CE. Despite extensive militarization and cultural influence, we find little ancestry contribution from peoples of Italic descent. However, we trace a large-scale influx of people of Anatolian ancestry during the Imperial period. Between ∼250 and 550 CE, we detect migrants with ancestry from Central/Northern Europe and the Steppe, confirming that "barbarian" migrations were propelled by ethnically diverse confederations. Following the end of Roman control, we detect the large-scale arrival of individuals who were genetically similar to modern Eastern European Slavic-speaking populations, who contributed 30%-60% of the ancestry of Balkan people, representing one of the largest permanent demographic changes anywhere in Europe during the Migration Period.

Testing Times: Challenges in Disentangling Admixture Histories in Recent and Complex Demographies

Paleogenomics has expanded our knowledge of human evolutionary history. Since the 2020s, the study of ancient DNA has increased its focus on reconstructing the recent past. However, the accuracy of paleogenomic methods in answering questions of historical and archaeological importance amidst the increased demographic complexity and decreased genetic differentiation within the historical period remains an open question. We used two simulation approaches to evaluate the limitations and behavior of commonly used methods, qpAdm and the f3-statistic, on admixture inference. The first is based on branch-length data simulated from four simple demographic models of varying complexities and configurations. The second, an analysis of Eurasian history composed of 59 populations using whole-genome data modified with ancient DNA conditions such as SNP ascertainment, data missingness, and pseudo-haploidization. We show that under conditions resembling historical populations, qpAdm can identify a small candidate set of true sources and populations closely related to them. However, in typical ancient DNA conditions, qpAdm is unable to further distinguish between them, limiting its utility for resolving fine-scaled hypotheses. Notably, we find that complex gene-flow histories generally lead to improvements in the performance of qpAdm and observe no bias in the estimation of admixture weights. We offer a heuristic for admixture inference that incorporates admixture weight estimate and P-values of qpAdm models, and f3-statistics to enhance the power to distinguish between multiple plausible candidates. Finally, we highlight the future potential of qpAdm through whole-genome branch-length f2-statistics, demonstrating the improved demographic inference that could be achieved with advancements in f-statistic estimations.

False discovery rates of qpAdm-based screens for genetic admixture

Although a broad range of methods exists for reconstructing population history from genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data, just a few methods gained popularity in archaeogenetics: principal component analysis (PCA); ADMIXTURE, an algorithm that models individuals as mixtures of multiple ancestral sources represented by actual or inferred populations; formal tests for admixture such as f3-statistics and D/f4-statistics; and qpAdm, a tool for fitting two-component and more complex admixture models to groups or individuals. Despite their popularity in archaeogenetics, which is explained by modest computational requirements and ability to analyze data of various types and qualities, protocols relying on qpAdm that screen numerous alternative models of varying complexity and find "fitting" models (often considering both estimated admixture proportions and p-values as a composite criterion of model fit) remain untested on complex simulated population histories in the form of admixture graphs of random topology. We analyzed genotype data extracted from such simulations and tested various types of high-throughput qpAdm protocols ("rotating" and "non-rotating", with or without temporal stratification of target groups and proxy ancestry sources, and with or without a "model competition" step). We caution that high-throughput qpAdm protocols may be inappropriate for exploratory analyses in poorly studied regions/periods since their false discovery rates varied between 12% and 68% depending on the details of the protocol and on the amount and quality of simulated data (i.e., >12% of fitting two-way admixture models imply gene flows that were not simulated). We demonstrate that for reducing false discovery rates of qpAdm protocols to nearly 0% it is advisable to use large SNP sets with low missing data rates, the rotating qpAdm protocol with a strictly enforced rule that target groups do not pre-date their proxy sources, and an unsupervised ADMIXTURE analysis as a way to verify feasible qpAdm models. Our study has a number of limitations: for instance, these recommendations depend on the assumption that the underlying genetic history is a complex admixture graph and not a stepping-stone model.

Fine-scale sampling uncovers the complexity of migrations in 5th-6th century Pannonia

As the collapse of the Western Roman Empire accelerated during the 4th and 5th centuries, arriving "barbarian" groups began to establish new communities in the border provinces of the declining (and eventually former) empire. This was a time of significant cultural and political change throughout not only these border regions but Europe as a whole.1,2 To better understand post-Roman community formation in one of these key frontier zones after the collapse of the Hunnic movement, we generated new paleogenomic data for a set of 38 burials from a time series of three 5th century cemeteries3,4,5 at Lake Balaton, Hungary. We utilized a comprehensive sampling approach to characterize these cemeteries along with data from 38 additional burials from a previously published mid-6th century site6 and analyzed them alongside data from over 550 penecontemporaneous individuals.7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 The range of genetic diversity in all four of these local burial communities is extensive and wider ranging than penecontemporaneous Europeans sequenced to date. Despite many commonalities in burial customs and demography, we find that there were substantial differences in genetic ancestry between the sites. We detect evidence of northern European gene flow into the Lake Balaton region. Additionally, we observe a statistically significant association between dress artifacts and genetic ancestry among 5th century genetically female burials. Our analysis shows that the formation of early Medieval communities was a multifarious process even at a local level, consisting of genetically heterogeneous groups.

Modeling of African population history using f-statistics is biased when applying all previously proposed SNP ascertainment schemes

f-statistics have emerged as a first line of analysis for making inferences about demographic history from genome-wide data. Not only are they guaranteed to allow robust tests of the fits of proposed models of population history to data when analyzing full genome sequencing data-that is, all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the individuals being analyzed-but they are also guaranteed to allow robust tests of models for SNPs ascertained as polymorphic in a population that is an outgroup in a phylogenetic sense to all groups being analyzed. True "outgroup ascertainment" is in practice impossible in humans because our species has arisen from a substructured ancestral population that does not descend from a homogeneous ancestral population going back many hundreds of thousands of years into the past. However, initial studies suggested that non-outgroup-ascertainment schemes might produce robust enough results using f-statistics, and that motivated widespread fitting of models to data using non-outgroup-ascertained SNP panels such as the "Affymetrix Human Origins array" which has been genotyped on thousands of modern individuals from hundreds of populations, or the "1240k" in-solution enrichment reagent which has been the source of about 70% of published genome-wide data for ancient humans. In this study, we show that while analyses of population history using such panels work well for studies of relationships among non-African populations and one African outgroup, when co-modeling more than one sub-Saharan African and/or archaic human groups (Neanderthals and Denisovans), fitting of f-statistics to such SNP sets is expected to frequently lead to false rejection of true demographic histories, and failure to reject incorrect models. Analyzing panels of SNPs polymorphic in archaic humans, which has been suggested as a solution for the ascertainment problem, has limited statistical power and retains important biases. However, by carrying out simulations of diverse demographic histories, we show that bias in inferences based on f-statistics can be minimized by ascertaining on variants common in a union of diverse African groups; such ascertainment retains high statistical power while allowing co-analysis of archaic and modern groups.

Inferring the population history of Kyrgyz in Xinjiang, Northwest China from genome-wide array genotyping

OBJECTIVES

Xinjiang plays a vital role in the trans-Eurasian population migration, language diffusion, and culture and technology exchange. However, the underrepresentation of Xinjiang's genomes has hindered a more comprehensive understanding of Xinjiang's genetic structure and population history.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We collected and genotyped 70 southern Xinjiang's Kyrgyz (SXJK) individuals and combined the data with modern and ancient Eurasians published. We used allele-frequency methods, including PCA, ADMIXTURE, f-statistics, qpWave/qpAdm, ALDER, Treemix, and haplotype-shared methods including shared-IBD segments, fineSTRUCTURE, and GLOBETROTTER to unveil the fine-scale population structure and reconstruct admixture history.

RESULTS

We identified genetic substructure within the SXJK population with subgroups showing different genetic affinities to West and East Eurasians. All SXJK subgroups were suggested to have close genetic relationships with surrounding Turkic-speaking groups that is, Uyghur, Kyrgyz from north Xinjiang and Tajikistan, and Chinese Kazakh, suggesting a shared ancestry among those populations. Outgroup-f3 and symmetrical f4 statistics showed a high genetic affinity of SXJK to present-day Tungusic, Mongolic-speaking populations and Ancient Northeast Asian (ANA) related groups. Allele sharing and haplotype sharing profiles revealed the east-west admixture pattern of SXJK. The qpAdm-based admixture models showed that SXJK derived ancestry from East Eurasian (ANA and East Asian, 42.7%-83.3%) and West Eurasian (Western Steppe herders and Central Asian, 16.7%-57.3%), the recent east-west admixture event could be traced to 1000 years ago based on ALDER and GLOBETROTTER analysis.

DISCUSSION

The high genetic affinity of SXJK to present-day Tungusic and Mongolic-speaking populations and short-shared IBD segments indicated their shared common ancestry. SXJK harbored a close genetic affinity to ANA-related populations, indicating the Northeast Asian origin of SXJK. The West and East Eurasian admixture models observed in SXJK further provided evidence of the dynamic admixture history in Xinjiang. The east-west admixture pattern and the identified ancestral makeup of SXJK suggested a genetic continuity from some Iron Age Xinjiang populations to present-day SXJK.

Genetic history of East-Central Europe in the first millennium CE

BACKGROUND

The appearance of Slavs in East-Central Europe has been the subject of an over 200-year debate driven by two conflicting hypotheses. The first assumes that Slavs came to the territory of contemporary Poland no earlier than the sixth century CE; the second postulates that they already inhabited this region in the Iron Age (IA). Testing either hypothesis is not trivial given that cremation of the dead was the prevailing custom in Central Europe from the late Bronze Age until the Middle Ages (MA).

RESULTS

To address this problem, we determined the genetic makeup of representatives of the IA Wielbark- and MA Slav-associated cultures from the territory of present-day Poland. The study involved 474 individuals buried in 27 cemeteries. For 197 of them, genome-wide data were obtained. We found close genetic affinities between the IA Wielbark culture-associated individuals and contemporary to them and older northern European populations. Further, we observed that the IA individuals had genetic components which were indispensable to model the MA population.

CONCLUSIONS

The collected data suggest that the Wielbark culture-associated IA population was formed by immigrants from the north who entered the region of contemporary Poland most likely at the beginning of the first millennium CE and mixed with autochthons. The presented results are in line with the hypothesis that assumes the genetic continuation between IA and MA periods in East-Central Europe.

Modeling of African population history using f -statistics can be highly biased and is not addressed by previously suggested SNP ascertainment schemes

f -statistics have emerged as a first line of analysis for making inferences about demographic history from genome-wide data. These statistics can provide strong evidence for either admixture or cladality, which can be robust to substantial rates of errors or missing data. f -statistics are guaranteed to be unbiased under "SNP ascertainment" (analyzing non-randomly chosen subsets of single nucleotide polymorphisms) only if it relies on a population that is an outgroup for all groups analyzed. However, ascertainment on a true outgroup that is not co-analyzed with other populations is often impractical and uncommon in the literature. In this study focused on practical rather than theoretical aspects of SNP ascertainment, we show that many non-outgroup ascertainment schemes lead to false rejection of true demographic histories, as well as to failure to reject incorrect models. But the bias introduced by common ascertainments such as the 1240K panel is mostly limited to situations when more than one sub-Saharan African and/or archaic human groups (Neanderthals and Denisovans) or non-human outgroups are co-modelled, for example, f 4 -statistics involving one non-African group, two African groups, and one archaic group. Analyzing panels of SNPs polymorphic in archaic humans, which has been suggested as a solution for the ascertainment problem, cannot fix all these problems since for some classes of f -statistics it is not a clean outgroup ascertainment, and in other cases it demonstrates relatively low power to reject incorrect demographic models since it provides a relatively small number of variants common in anatomically modern humans. And due to the paucity of high-coverage archaic genomes, archaic individuals used for ascertainment often act as sole representatives of the respective groups in an analysis, and we show that this approach is highly problematic. By carrying out large numbers of simulations of diverse demographic histories, we find that bias in inferences based on f -statistics introduced by non-outgroup ascertainment can be minimized if the derived allele frequency spectrum in the population used for ascertainment approaches the spectrum that existed at the root of all groups being co-analyzed. Ascertaining on sites with variants common in a diverse group of African individuals provides a good approximation to such a set of SNPs, addressing the great majority of biases and also retaining high statistical power for studying population history. Such a "pan-African" ascertainment, although not completely problem-free, allows unbiased exploration of demographic models for the widest set of archaic and modern human populations, as compared to the other ascertainment schemes we explored.

Multidisciplinary lines of evidence reveal East/Northeast Asian origins of agriculturalist/pastoralist residents at a Han dynasty military outpost in ancient Xinjiang

Han/non-Han interactions were engrained among the border regions of ancient Imperial China. Yet, little is known about either the genetic origins or the lifeways of these border peoples. Our study applies tools from ancient deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and stable isotope analysis to the study of a Han dynasty population at the Shichengzi site in modern-day Xinjiang. Isotopic analysis (δ13C and δ15N) of human (n = 8), animal (n = 26), and crop remains (n = 23) from Shichengzi indicated that dietary patterns among site inhabitants could be split among agro-pastoral and agricultural groups based on differences in the collagen 15N ratios. DNA analysis divided the four Shichengzi samples into two groups, with one group primarily harboring the ancient Northeast Asian (ANA) related ancestry, while the other showed a dominant Late Neolithic Yellow River (YR_LN) related ancestry. Both ancient DNA and stable isotope evidence point to the Northeast Asian origins of pastoralists and East Asian origins of Han agriculturalists, who, nonetheless, shared a single burial space at Shichengzi. This study thus provides clear evidence for the multiple origins and identities of populations across the porous border represented by the Han Empire and surrounding regions and proposes a new model for the interpretation of border culture in early Imperial China.