Climate windows of opportunity for plant expansion during the Phanerozoic

Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity

Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the timing of the first emergence of water scarcity (FirstWS) and disappearance of water scarcity (EndWS), by using ensembles of simulations with six Global Hydrological Models under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP6.0) combined with two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2, SSP3) for 1901-2090. Historically (1901-2020), FirstWS occurred predominantly in Asia (e.g., China and India) and Africa (e.g., East Africa); the peak time of emerging water scarcity began around the 1980s. Under all the four future RCPs-SSPs scenarios (2021-2090), FirstWS will likely occur mainly in some regions of Africa, for which the newly added area is double that in Asia. On the other hand, EndWS will mostly occur in China after 2050, primarily due to the projected declining population. We, therefore, call for specific attention and effort to adapt to the looming water scarcity in Africa.

Geographic range of plants drives long-term climate change

Long computation times in vegetation and climate models hamper our ability to evaluate the potentially powerful role of plants on weathering and carbon sequestration over the Phanerozoic Eon. Simulated vegetation over deep time is often homogenous, and disregards the spatial distribution of plants and the impact of local climatic variables on plant function. Here we couple a fast vegetation model (FLORA) to a spatially-resolved long-term climate-biogeochemical model (SCION), to assess links between plant geographical range, the long-term carbon cycle and climate. Model results show lower rates of carbon fixation and up to double the previously predicted atmospheric CO2 concentration due to a limited plant geographical range over the arid Pangea supercontinent. The Mesozoic dispersion of the continents increases modelled plant geographical range from 65% to > 90%, amplifying global CO2 removal, consistent with geological data. We demonstrate that plant geographical range likely exerted a major, under-explored control on long-term climate change.

From epidermal cells to functional pores: Understanding stomatal development

Stomata, small hydromechanical valves in the leaf epidermis, are fundamental in regulating gas exchange and water loss between plants and the environment. Stomatal development involves a series of coordinated events ranging from the initial cell division that determines the meristemoid mother cells to forming specialized structures such as guard cells. These events are orchestrated by the transcription factors SPEECHLESS, FAMA, and MUTE through signaling networks. The role of plant hormones (e.g., abscisic acid, jasmonic acid, and brassinosteroids) in regulating stomatal development has been elucidated through these signaling cascades. In addition, environmental factors, such as light availability and CO2 concentration, also regulate the density and distribution of stomata in leaves, ultimately affecting overall water use efficiency. In this review, we highlight the mechanisms underlying stomatal development, connecting key signaling processes that activate or inhibit cell differentiation responsible for forming guard cells in the leaf epidermis. The factors responsible for integrating transcription factors, hormonal responses, and the influence of climatic factors on the signaling network that leads to stomatal development in plants are further discussed. Understanding the intricate connections between these factors, including the metabolic regulation of plant development, may enable us to maximize plant productivity under specific environmental conditions in changing climate scenarios.

Landscape dynamics and the Phanerozoic diversification of the biosphere

The long-term diversification of the biosphere responds to changes in the physical environment. Yet, over the continents, the nearly monotonic expansion of life started later in the early part of the Phanerozoic eon1 than the expansion in the marine realm, where instead the number of genera waxed and waned over time2. A comprehensive evaluation of the changes in the geodynamic and climatic forcing fails to provide a unified theory for the long-term pattern of evolution of life on Earth. Here we couple climate and plate tectonics models to numerically reconstruct the evolution of the Earth's landscape over the entire Phanerozoic eon, which we then compare to palaeo-diversity datasets from marine animal and land plant genera. Our results indicate that biodiversity is strongly reliant on landscape dynamics, which at all times determine the carrying capacity of both the continental domain and the oceanic domain. In the oceans, diversity closely adjusted to the riverine sedimentary flux that provides nutrients for primary production. On land, plant expansion was hampered by poor edaphic conditions until widespread endorheic basins resurfaced continents with a sedimentary cover that facilitated the development of soil-dependent rooted flora, and the increasing variety of the landscape additionally promoted their development.

Mercury isotopes show vascular plants had colonized land extensively by the early Silurian

The colonization and expansion of plants on land is considered one of the most profound ecological revolutions, yet the precise timing remains controversial. Because land vegetation can enhance weathering intensity and affect terrigenous input to the ocean, changes in terrestrial plant biomass with distinct negative Δ¹⁹⁹Hg and Δ²⁰⁰Hg signatures may overwrite the positive Hg isotope signatures commonly found in marine sediments. By investigating secular Hg isotopic variations in the Paleozoic marine sediments from South China and peripheral paleocontinents, we highlight distinct negative excursions in both Δ¹⁹⁹Hg and Δ²⁰⁰Hg at Stage level starting in the early Silurian and again in the Carboniferous. These geochemical signatures were driven by increased terrestrial contribution of Hg due to the rapid expansion of vascular plants. These excursions broadly coincide with rising atmospheric oxygen concentrations and global cooling. Therefore, vascular plants were widely distributed on land during the Ordovician-Silurian transition (~444 million years), long before the earliest reported vascular plant fossil, Cooksonia (~430 million years).