Temperate functional niche availability not resident-invader competition shapes tropicalisation in reef fishes

Combining environmental DNA and visual surveys can inform conservation planning for coral reefs

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has the potential to revolutionize conservation planning by providing spatially and taxonomically comprehensive data on biodiversity and ecosystem conditions, but its utility to inform the design of protected areas remains untested. Here, we quantify whether and how identifying conservation priority areas within coral reef ecosystems differs when biodiversity information is collected via eDNA analyses or traditional visual census records. We focus on 147 coral reefs in Indonesia's hyper-diverse Wallacea region and show large discrepancies in the allocation and spatial design of conservation priority areas when coral reef species were surveyed with underwater visual techniques (fishes, corals, and algae) or eDNA metabarcoding (eukaryotes and metazoans). Specifically, incidental protection occurred for 55% of eDNA species when targets were set for species detected by visual surveys and 71% vice versa. This finding is supported by generally low overlap in detection between visual census and eDNA methods at species level, with more overlap at higher taxonomic ranks. Incomplete taxonomic reference databases for the highly diverse Wallacea reefs, and the complementary detection of species by the two methods, underscore the current need to combine different biodiversity data sources to maximize species representation in conservation planning.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming

Protection from direct human impacts can safeguard marine life, yet ocean warming crosses marine protected area boundaries. Here, we test whether protection offers resilience to marine heatwaves from local to network scales. We examine 71,269 timeseries of population abundances for 2269 reef fish species surveyed in 357 protected versus 747 open sites worldwide. We quantify the stability of reef fish abundance from populations to metacommunities, considering responses of species and functional diversity including thermal affinity of different trophic groups. Overall, protection mitigates adverse effects of marine heatwaves on fish abundance, community stability, asynchronous fluctuations and functional richness. We find that local stability is positively related to distance from centers of high human density only in protected areas. We provide evidence that networks of protected areas have persistent reef fish communities in warming oceans by maintaining large populations and promoting stability at different levels of biological organization.

Ecological generalism and physiology mediate fish biogeographic ranges under ocean warming

Climate-driven species redistributions are facilitated by niche modifications that increase a species's chances of establishment in novel communities. It is well understood how range-extending species adjust individual niche traits when entering novel environments, yet whether modification of ecological niche traits collectively alters the pace of range extensions or contractions remains unknown. We quantified habitat niche, abundance, physiological performance and cellular defence/damage of range-extending coral reef fishes and coexisting local temperate fishes along a 2000 km latitudinal gradient. We also assessed their dietary and behavioural niches, and establishment potential, to understand whether ecological generalism facilitates successful range extension of coral reef fishes. The coral reef fish that increased all ecological niches, showed stronger establishment, increased physiological performance and cellular damage, but decreased cellular defence at their cold-range edge, whereas tropical species that showed unmodified ecological niches showed lower establishment. One temperate species showed decreased abundance, habitat niche width and body condition, but increased cellular defence, cellular damage and energy reserves at their warm-trailing range, while other temperate species showed contrasting responses. Therefore, ecological generalists might be more successful than ecological specialists during the initial stages of climate change, with increasing future warming strengthening this pattern by physiologically benefitting tropical generalists but disadvantaging temperate specialists.