What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean's twilight zone

Deep-pelagic fishes: Demographic instability in a stable environment

Demographic histories are frequently a product of the environment, as populations expand or contract in response to major environmental changes, often driven by changes in climate. Meso- and bathy-pelagic fishes inhabit some of the most temporally and spatially stable habitats on the planet. The stability of the deep-pelagic could make deep-pelagic fishes resistant to the demographic instability commonly reported in fish species inhabiting other marine habitats, however the demographic histories of deep-pelagic fishes are unknown. We reconstructed the historical demography of 11 species of deep-pelagic fishes using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data. We uncovered widespread evidence of population expansions in our study species, a counterintuitive result based on the nature of deep-pelagic ecosystems. Frequency-based methods detected potential demographic changes in nine species of fishes, while extended Bayesian skyline plots identified population expansions in four species. These results suggest that despite the relatively stable nature of the deep-pelagic environment, the fishes that reside here have likely been impacted by past changes in climate. Further investigation is necessary to better understand how deep-pelagic fishes, by far Earth's most abundant vertebrates, will respond to future climatic changes.

Biological carbon pump estimate based on multidecadal hydrographic data

The transfer of photosynthetically produced organic carbon from surface to mesopelagic waters draws carbon dioxide from the atmosphere1. However, current observation-based estimates disagree on the strength of this biological carbon pump (BCP)2. Earth system models (ESMs) also exhibit a large spread of BCP estimates, indicating limited representations of the known carbon export pathways3. Here we use several decades of hydrographic observations to produce a top-down estimate of the strength of the BCP with an inverse biogeochemical model that implicitly accounts for all known export pathways. Our estimate of total organic carbon (TOC) export at 73.4 m (model euphotic zone depth) is 15.00 ± 1.12 Pg C year-1, with only two-thirds reaching 100 m depth owing to rapid remineralization of organic matter in the upper water column. Partitioned by sequestration time below the euphotic zone, τ, the globally integrated organic carbon production rate with τ > 3 months is 11.09 ± 1.02 Pg C year-1, dropping to 8.25 ± 0.30 Pg C year-1 for τ > 1 year, with 81% contributed by the non-advective-diffusive vertical flux owing to sinking particles and vertically migrating zooplankton. Nevertheless, export of organic carbon by mixing and other fluid transport of dissolved matter and suspended particles remains regionally important for meeting the respiratory carbon demand. Furthermore, the temperature dependence of the sequestration efficiency inferred from our inversion suggests that future global warming may intensify the recycling of organic matter in the upper ocean, potentially weakening the BCP.

Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.