Recent extinctions disturb path to equilibrium diversity in Caribbean bats

The macroevolutionary impact of recent and imminent mammal extinctions on Madagascar

Many of Madagascar's unique species are threatened with extinction. However, the severity of recent and potential extinctions in a global evolutionary context is unquantified. Here, we compile a phylogenetic dataset for the complete non-marine mammalian biota of Madagascar and estimate natural rates of extinction, colonization, and speciation. We measure how long it would take to restore Madagascar's mammalian biodiversity under these rates, the "evolutionary return time" (ERT). At the time of human arrival there were approximately 250 species of mammals on Madagascar, resulting from 33 colonisation events (28 by bats), but at least 30 of these species have gone extinct since then. We show that the loss of currently threatened species would have a much deeper long-term impact than all the extinctions since human arrival. A return from current to pre-human diversity would take 1.6 million years (Myr) for bats, and 2.9 Myr for non-volant mammals. However, if species currently classified as threatened go extinct, the ERT rises to 2.9 Myr for bats and 23 Myr for non-volant mammals. Our results suggest that an extinction wave with deep evolutionary impact is imminent on Madagascar unless immediate conservation actions are taken.

From island biogeography to landscape and metacommunity ecology: A macroecological perspective of bat communities

The equilibrium theory of island biogeography and its quantitative consideration of origination and extinction dynamics as they relate to island area and distance from source populations have evolved over time and enriched theory related to many disciplines in spatial ecology. Indeed, the island focus was catalytic to the emergence of landscape ecology and macroecology in the late 20th century. We integrate concepts and perspectives of island biogeography, landscape ecology, macroecology, and metacommunity ecology, and show how these disciplines have advanced the understanding of variation in abundance, biodiversity, and composition of bat communities. We leverage the well-studied bat fauna of the islands in the Caribbean to illustrate the complex interplay of ecological, biogeographical, and evolutionary processes in molding local biodiversity and system-wide structure. Thereafter, we highlight the role of habitat loss and fragmentation, which is increasing at an accelerating rate during the Anthropocene, on the structure of local bat communities and regional metacommunities across landscapes. Bat species richness increases with the amount of available habitat, often forming nested subsets along gradients of patch or island area. Similarly, the distance to and identity of sources of colonization influence the richness, composition, and metacommunity structure of islands and landscape networks.

Effects of insularity on genetic diversity within and among natural populations

We conducted a quantitative literature review of genetic diversity (GD) within and among populations in relation to categorical population size and isolation (together referred to as "insularity"). Using populations from within the same studies, we were able to control for between-study variation in methodology, as well as demographic and life histories of focal species. Contrary to typical expectations, insularity had relatively minor effects on GD within and among populations, which points to the more important role of other factors in shaping evolutionary processes. Such effects of insularity were sometimes seen-particularly in study systems where GD was already high overall. That is, insularity influenced GD in a study system when GD was high even in non-insular populations of the same study system-suggesting an important role for the "scope" of influences on GD. These conclusions were more robust for within population GD versus among population GD, although several biases might underlie this difference. Overall, our findings indicate that population-level genetic assumptions need to be tested rather than assumed in nature, particularly for topics underlying current conservation management practices.

Phylogenetic and functional clustering illustrate the roles of adaptive radiation and dispersal filtering in jointly shaping late-Quaternary mammal assemblages on oceanic islands

Islands frequently harbour unique assemblages of species, yet their ecological roles and differences are largely ignored in island biogeography studies. Here, we examine eco-evolutionary processes structuring mammal assemblages on oceanic islands worldwide, including all extant and extinct late-Quaternary mammal species. We find island mammal assemblages tend to be phylogenetically clustered (share more recent evolutionary histories), with clustering increasing with island area and isolation. We also observe that mammal assemblages often tend to be functionally clustered (share similar traits), but the strength of clustering is weak and generally independent from island area or isolation. These findings indicate the important roles of in situ speciation and dispersal filtering in shaping island mammal assemblages under pre-anthropogenic conditions, notably through adaptive radiation of a few clades (e.g. bats, with generally high dispersal abilities). Our study demonstrates that considering the functional and phylogenetic axes of diversity can better reveal the eco-evolutionary processes of island community assembly.

Deep Macroevolutionary Impact of Humans on New Zealand's Unique Avifauna

Islands are at the frontline of the anthropogenic extinction crisis [1]. A vast number of island birds have gone extinct since human colonization [2], and an important proportion is currently threatened with extinction [3]. While the number of lost or threatened avian species has often been quantified [4], the macroevolutionary consequences of human impact on island biodiversity have rarely been measured [5]. Here, we estimate the amount of evolutionary time that has been lost or is under threat due to anthropogenic activity in a classic example, New Zealand. Half of its bird taxa have gone extinct since humans arrived [6, 7] and many are threatened [8], including lineages forming highly distinct branches in the avian tree of life [9-11]. Using paleontological and ancient DNA information, we compiled a dated phylogenetic dataset for New Zealand's terrestrial avifauna. We extend the method DAISIE developed for island biogeography [12] to allow for the fact that many of New Zealand's birds are evolutionarily isolated and use it to estimate natural rates of speciation, extinction, and colonization. Simulating under a range of human-induced extinction scenarios, we find that it would take approximately 50 million years (Ma) to recover the number of species lost since human colonization of New Zealand and up to 10 Ma to return to today's species numbers if currently threatened species go extinct. This study puts into macroevolutionary perspective the impact of humans in an isolated fauna and reveals how conservation decisions we take today will have repercussions for millions of years.

A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide

Colonization, speciation and extinction are dynamic processes that influence global patterns of species richness^1-6. Island biogeography theory predicts that the contribution of these processes to the accumulation of species diversity depends on the area and isolation of the island^7,8. Notably, there has been no robust global test of this prediction for islands where speciation cannot be ignored⁹, because neither the appropriate data nor the analytical tools have been available. Here we address both deficiencies to reveal, for island birds, the empirical shape of the general relationships that determine how colonization, extinction and speciation rates co-vary with the area and isolation of islands. We compiled a global molecular phylogenetic dataset of birds on islands, based on the terrestrial avifaunas of 41 oceanic archipelagos worldwide (including 596 avian taxa), and applied a new analysis method to estimate the sensitivity of island-specific rates of colonization, speciation and extinction to island features (area and isolation). Our model predicts-with high explanatory power-several global relationships. We found a decline in colonization with isolation, a decline in extinction with area and an increase in speciation with area and isolation. Combining the theoretical foundations of island biogeography^7,8 with the temporal information contained in molecular phylogenies¹⁰ proves a powerful approach to reveal the fundamental relationships that govern variation in biodiversity across the planet.

Comparative phylogeography of mainland and insular species of Neotropical molossid bats (Molossus)

Historical events, habitat preferences, and geographic barriers might result in distinct genetic patterns in insular versus mainland populations. Comparison between these two biogeographic systems provides an opportunity to investigate the relative role of isolation in phylogeographic patterns and to elucidate the importance of evolution and demographic history in population structure. Herein, we use a genotype-by-sequencing approach (GBS) to explore population structure within three species of mastiff bats (Molossus molossus, M. coibensis, and M. milleri), which represent different ecological histories and geographical distributions in the genus. We tested the hypotheses that oceanic straits serve as barriers to dispersal in Caribbean bats and that isolated island populations are more likely to experience genetic drift and bottlenecks in comparison with highly connected ones, thus leading to different phylogeographic patterns. We show that population structures vary according to general habitat preferences, levels of population isolation, and historical fluctuations in climate. In our dataset, mainland geographic barriers played only a small role in isolation of lineages. However, oceanic straits posed a partial barrier to the dispersal for some populations within some species (M. milleri), but do not seem to disrupt gene flow in others (M. molossus). Lineages on distant islands undergo genetic bottlenecks more frequently than island lineages closer to the mainland, which have a greater exchange of haplotypes.

Anthropogenic Extinction Dominates Holocene Declines of West Indian Mammals

The extensive postglacial mammal losses in the West Indies provide an opportunity to evaluate extinction dynamics, but limited data have hindered our ability to test hypotheses. Here, we analyze the tempo and dynamics of extinction using a novel data set of faunal last-appearance dates and human first-appearance dates, demonstrating widespread overlap between humans and now-extinct native mammals. Humans arrived in four waves (Lithic, Archaic, Ceramic, and European), each associated with increased environmental impact. Large-bodied mammals and several bats were extinct by the Archaic, following protracted extinction dynamics perhaps reflecting habitat loss. Most small-bodied rodents and lipotyphlan insectivores survived the Ceramic, but extensive landscape transformation and the introduction of invasive mammals following European colonization caused further extinctions, leaving a threatened remnant fauna. Both large- and small-bodied nonvolant mammals disappeared, reflecting complex relationships between body size, ecology, and anthropogenic change. Extinct bats were generally larger species, paralleling declines from natural catastrophes.

Equilibrium Bird Species Diversity in Atlantic Islands

Half a century ago, MacArthur and Wilson proposed that the number of species on islands tends toward a dynamic equilibrium diversity around which species richness fluctuates [1]. The current prevailing view in island biogeography accepts the fundamentals of MacArthur and Wilson's theory [2] but questions whether their prediction of equilibrium can be fulfilled over evolutionary timescales, given the unpredictable and ever-changing nature of island geological and biotic features [3-7]. Here we conduct a complete molecular phylogenetic survey of the terrestrial bird species from four oceanic archipelagos that make up the diverse Macaronesian bioregion-the Azores, the Canary Islands, Cape Verde, and Madeira [8, 9]. We estimate the times at which birds colonized and speciated in the four archipelagos, including many previously unsampled endemic and non-endemic taxa and their closest continental relatives. We develop and fit a new multi-archipelago dynamic stochastic model to these data, explicitly incorporating information from 91 taxa, both extant and extinct. Remarkably, we find that all four archipelagos have independently achieved and maintained a dynamic equilibrium over millions of years. Biogeographical rates are homogeneous across archipelagos, except for the Canary Islands, which exhibit higher speciation and colonization. Our finding that the avian communities of the four Macaronesian archipelagos display an equilibrium diversity pattern indicates that a diversity plateau may be rapidly achieved on islands where rates of in situ radiation are low and extinction is high. This study reveals that equilibrium processes may be more prevalent than recently proposed, supporting MacArthur and Wilson's 50-year-old theory.