Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics

Climate change reduces elevational and latitudinal differences in spring phenology of pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter)

The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), as an ectotherm, temperature plays a crucial role in its development. With climate change, earlier development of insect pests is expected to pose a more frequent threat to forest communities. Yet the quantitative research about the extent to which global warming affects pine caterpillar populations is rarely understood, particularly across various elevations and latitudes. Spring phenology of pine caterpillars showed an advancing trend with 0.8 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, and 3.3 d/10a under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. There was a maximum advance of 20 d in spring phenology of pine caterpillars during the 2090s, from mid-March to early March, and even late February. This study highlighted the significant advance in spring phenology at elevations >1000 m and lower latitudes. Consequently, the differences in elevational and latitudinal gradients were relatively small as the increasing temperatures at the end of the 21st century. And the average temperature in February-March was effective in explaining theses variability. These findings are crucial for adapting and mitigating to climate change.

Insecticides, more than herbicides, land use, and climate, are associated with declines in butterfly species richness and abundance in the American Midwest

Mounting evidence shows overall insect abundances are in decline globally. Habitat loss, climate change, and pesticides have all been implicated, but their relative effects have never been evaluated in a comprehensive large-scale study. We harmonized 17 years of land use, climate, multiple classes of pesticides, and butterfly survey data across 81 counties in five states in the US Midwest. We find community-wide declines in total butterfly abundance and species richness to be most strongly associated with insecticides in general, and for butterfly species richness the use of neonicotinoid-treated seeds in particular. This included the abundance of the migratory monarch (Danaus plexippus), whose decline is the focus of intensive debate and public concern. Insect declines cannot be understood without comprehensive data on all putative drivers, and the 2015 cessation of neonicotinoid data releases in the US will impede future research.

Changes in landscape and climate in Mexico and Texas reveal small effects on migratory habitat of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

The decline of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in North America has motivated research on the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on monarch habitat and population dynamics. We investigated spring and fall trends in LULC, milkweed and nectar resources over a 20-year period, and ~ 30 years of climate variables in Mexico and Texas, U.S. This region supports spring breeding, and spring and fall migration during the annual life cycle of the monarch. We estimated a - 2.9% decline in milkweed in Texas, but little to no change in Mexico. Fall and spring nectar resources declined < 1% in both study extents. Vegetation greenness increased in the fall and spring in Mexico while the other climate variables did not change in both Mexico and Texas. Monarch habitat in Mexico and Texas appears relatively more intact than in the midwestern, agricultural landscapes of the U.S. Given the relatively modest observed changes in nectar and milkweed, the relatively stable climate conditions, and increased vegetation greenness in Mexico, it seems unlikely that habitat loss (quantity or quality) in Mexico and Texas has caused large declines in population size or survival during migration.

Risk assessment of pesticides used in the eastern Avocado Belt of Michoacan, Mexico: A survey and water monitoring approach

Pesticides use raises concerns regarding environmental sustainability, as pesticides are closely linked to the decline of biodiversity and adverse human health outcomes. This study proposed a holistic approach for assessing the potential risks posed by pesticides for human health and the environment in the eastern region of Michoacan, where extensive agricultural lands, especially corn and avocado fields, surround the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. We used a combination of qualitative (semi-structured interviews) and quantitative (chemical analysis) data. Fifty-five interviews with smallholder farmers allowed us to identify pesticide types, quantities, frequencies, and application methods. A robust and precise analytical method based on solid-phase extraction and LC-MS/MS was developed and validated to quantify 21 different pesticides in 16 water samples (rivers, wells, runoff areas). We assessed environmental and human health risks based on the pesticides detected in the water samples and reported in the interviews. The interviews revealed the use of 28 active ingredients, including glyphosate (29 % of respondents), imidacloprid (27 %), and benomyl (24 %). The pesticide analysis showed the presence of 13 different pesticides and degradation products in the water samples. The highest concentrations were found for imidacloprid (1195 ngL-1) and carbendazim (a degradation product of benomyl; 932 ngL-1), along with the metabolite of pyrethroid insecticides, 3-PBA (494 ngL-1). The risk assessment indicates that among the most used pesticides, the fungicide benomyl and carbendazim pose the highest risk to human health and aquatic ecosystems, respectively. This study unveils novel insights on agricultural practices for the avocado, a globally consumed crop that is undergoing rapid production expansion. It calls for the harmonisation of crop protection with environmental responsibility, safeguarding the health of the people involved and the surrounding ecosystems.

Forecasting insect dynamics in a changing world

Predicting how insects will respond to stressors through time is difficult because of the diversity of insects, environments, and approaches used to monitor and model. Forecasting models take correlative/statistical, mechanistic models, and integrated forms; in some cases, temporal processes can be inferred from spatial models. Because of heterogeneity associated with broad community measurements, models are often unable to identify mechanistic explanations. Many present efforts to forecast insect dynamics are restricted to single-species models, which can offer precise predictions but limited generalizability. Trait-based approaches may offer a good compromise that limits the masking of the ranges of responses while still offering insight. Regardless of the modeling approach, the data used to parameterize a forecasting model should be carefully evaluated for temporal autocorrelation, minimum data needs, and sampling biases in the data. Forecasting models can be tested using near-term predictions and revised to improve future forecasts.

Population dynamics and drivers of the eastern monarch (Danaus plexippus) across its full annual cycle: a cross-scale synthesis of a model migratory species

The monarch butterfly is arguably the best-known butterfly species throughout its global range. Declines in the size of the overwintering colonies in Mexico have sparked controversy regarding the conservation of the species and this controversy has been heightened since the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and International Union for the Conservation of Nature concluded that the eastern monarch populations were threatened (or in the case of United States Fish and Wildlife Service, warranted listing). Drivers of decline vary through space and time. Here, we present a synthesis of longitudinal monarch abundance studies that aim to disentangle the putative drivers of decline from one another. We find remarkable consistency that suggests monarch populations are indeed declining and that potential drivers of such decline shift over time. We strongly encourage future work on the species paired with mechanistic, experimental designs to address some long-standing knowledge gaps.

The monarch butterfly in Mexico: a conservation model

Each fall, millions of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.) travel from Canada and the United States to overwinter in Mexico and California. In 2022, the IUCN listed migratory monarchs as endangered because of their population decline. The main accepted drivers are widespread use of herbicides, effects of climate, and land use change that causes habitat loss. We analyzed the main actions taken to officially protect the overwintering sites and the migration phenomenon with the establishment of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in 2000. The conservation of the monarch overwintering sites in Mexico is an example of continuous work from their discovery to the present. We highlight the importance of monitoring the areas covered by overwintering monarchs in Mexico. These colonies represent the largest concentrations of monarch populations in the world. In the last 10 years, the average area covered by monarchs was 2.72 ( ± 0.47 SE) hectares.

Dynamics of stored lipids in fall migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus): Nectaring in northern Mexico allows recovery from droughts at higher latitudes

The eastern population of the North American monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwinters from November through March in the high-altitude (3000 m+) forests of central Mexico during which time they rely largely on stored lipids. These are acquired during larval development and the conversion of sugars from floral nectar by adults. We sampled fall migrant monarchs from southern Canada through the migratory route to two overwintering sites in 2019 (n = 10 locations), 2020 (n = 8 locations) and 2021 (n = 7 locations). Moderate to extreme droughts along the migratory route were expected to result in low lipid levels in overwintering monarchs but our analysis of lipid levels of monarchs collected at overwintering sites indicated that in all years most had high levels of lipids prior to winter. Clearly, a significant proportion of lipids were consistently acquired in Mexico during the last portion of the migration. Drought conditions in Oklahoma, Texas and northern Mexico in 2019 resulted in the lowest levels of lipid mass and wing loading observed in that year but with higher levels at locations southward in Mexico to the overwintering sites. Compared with 2019, lipid levels increased during the 2020 and 2021 fall migrations but were again higher during the Mexican portion of the migration than for Oklahoma and Texas samples, emphasizing a recovery of lipids as monarchs advanced toward the overwintering locations. In all 3 years, body water was highest during the Canada-USA phase of migration but then declined during the nectar foraging phase in Mexico before recovering again at the overwintering sites. The increase in mass and lipids from those in Texas to the overwintering sites in Mexico indicates that nectar availability in Mexico can compensate for poor conditions experienced further north. Our work emphasizes the need to maintain the floral and therefore nectar resources that fuel both the migration and storage of lipids throughout the entire migratory route.

The frequency of wing damage in a migrating butterfly

The ability to fly is crucial for migratory insects. Consequently, the accumulation of damage on the wings over time can affect survival, especially for species that travel long distances. We examined the frequency of irreversible wing damage in the migratory butterfly Vanessa cardui to explore the effect of wing structure on wing damage frequency, as well as the mechanisms that might mitigate wing damage. An exceptionally high migration rate driven by high precipitation levels in their larval habitats in the winter of 2018-2019 provided us with an excellent opportunity to collect data on the frequency of naturally occurring wing damage associated with long-distance flights. Digital images of 135 individuals of V. cardui were collected and analyzed in Germany. The results show that the hindwings experienced a greater frequency of damage than the forewings. Moreover, forewings experienced more severe damage on the lateral margin, whereas hindwings experienced more damage on the trailing margin. The frequency of wing margin damage was higher in the painted lady butterfly than in the migrating monarch butterfly and in the butterfly Pontia occidentalis following artificially induced wing collisions. The results of this study could be used in future comparative studies of patterns of wing damage in butterflies and other insects. Additional studies are needed to clarify whether the strategies for coping with wing damage differ between migratory and nonmigratory species.

Complexity, humility, and action: a current perspective on monarchs in Western North America

Recent studies have continued to shed light on the ecology of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in western North America. These studies have documented a declining overwintering population over several decades, punctuated by unexpected variability in recent years. Understanding this variability will require grappling with the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resources and risks presented to western monarchs throughout their annual life cycle. Recent changes in the western monarch population further illustrate how interacting global change drivers can create complex causes and consequences in this system. The complexity of this system should inspire humility. However, even recognizing the limits of our current understanding, there is enough scientific common ground to take some conservation actions now.

The genome and sex-dependent responses to temperature in the common yellow butterfly, Eurema hecabe

BACKGROUND

Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) is one of the most geographically widespread insect orders in the world, and its species play important and diverse ecological and applied roles. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to biodiversity this century, and lepidopterans are vulnerable to climate change. Temperature-dependent gene expression differences are of relevance under the ongoing climate crisis. However, little is known about how climate affects gene expression in lepidopterans and the ecological consequences of this, particularly with respect to genes with biased expression in one of the sexes. The common yellow butterfly, Eurema hecabe (Family Pieridae), is one of the most geographically widespread lepidopterans that can be found in Asia, Africa, and Australia. Nevertheless, what temperature-dependent effects there may be and whether the effects differ between the sexes remain largely unexplored.

RESULTS

Here, we generated high-quality genomic resources for E. hecabe along with transcriptomes from eight developmental stages. Male and female butterflies were subjected to varying temperatures to assess sex-specific gene expression responses through mRNA and microRNA transcriptomics. We find that there are more temperature-dependent sex-biased genes in females than males, including genes that are involved in a range of biologically important functions, highlighting potential ecological impacts of increased temperatures. Further, by considering available butterfly data on sex-biased gene expression in a comparative genomic framework, we find that the pattern of sex-biased gene expression identified in E. hecabe is highly species-specific, rather than conserved across butterfly species, suggesting that sex-biased gene expression responses to climate change are complex in butterflies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study lays the foundation for further understanding of differential responses to environmental stress in a widespread lepidopteran model and demonstrates the potential complexity of sex-specific responses of lepidopterans to climate change.

Temporal matches between monarch butterfly and milkweed population changes over the past 25,000 years

In intimate ecological interactions, the interdependency of species may result in correlated demographic histories. For species of conservation concern, understanding the long-term dynamics of such interactions may shed light on the drivers of population decline. Here, we address the demographic history of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus, and its dominant host plant, the common milkweed Asclepias syriaca (A. syriaca), using broad-scale sampling and genomic inference. Because genetic resources for milkweed have lagged behind those for monarchs, we first release a chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation for common milkweed. Next, we show that despite its enormous geographic range across eastern North America, A. syriaca is best characterized as a single, roughly panmictic population. Using approximate Bayesian computation with random forests (ABC-RF), a machine learning method for reconstructing demographic histories, we show that both monarchs and milkweed experienced population expansion during the most recent recession of North American glaciers 10,000-20,000 years ago. Our data also identify concurrent population expansions in both species during the large-scale clearing of eastern forests (∼200 years ago). Finally, we find no evidence that either species experienced a reduction in effective population size over the past 75 years. Thus, the well-documented decline of monarch abundance over the past 40 years is not visible in our genomic dataset, reflecting a possible mismatch of the overwintering census population to effective population size in this species.

Life cycle complexity and body mass drive erratic changes in climate vulnerability across ontogeny in a seasonally migrating butterfly

Physiological traits are often used for vulnerability assessments of organismal responses to climate change. Trait values can change dramatically over the life cycle of organisms but are typically assessed at a single developmental stage. Reconciling ontogenetic changes in physiological traits with vulnerability assessments often reveals early life-stage vulnerabilities. The degree to which ontogenetic changes in physiological traits are due to changes in body mass over development versus stage-specific responses determines the degree to which mass can be used as a proxy for vulnerability. Here, we use the painted lady butterfly, Vanessa cardui, to test ontogenetic changes in two physiological traits, the acute thermal sensitivity of routine metabolic rate (RMR Q10) and the critical thermal maximum (CTmax). RMR Q10 generally followed ontogenetic changes in body mass, with stages characterized by smaller body mass exhibiting lower acute thermal sensitivity. However, CTmax was largely decoupled from ontogenetic changes in body mass. In contrast with trends from other studies showing increasing vulnerability among progressively earlier developmental stages, our study revealed highly erratic patterns of vulnerability across ontogeny. Specifically, we found the lowest joint-trait vulnerability (both RMR Q10 and CTmax) in the earliest developmental stage we tested (3rd instar larvae), the highest vulnerabilities in the next two developmental stages (4th and 5th instar larvae), and reduced vulnerability into the pupal and adult stages. Our study supports growing evidence of mechanistic decoupling of physiology across developmental stages and suggests that body mass is not a universal proxy for all physiological trait indicators of climate vulnerability.

Body mass index does not decline during winter for the sedentary marine gastropod Crepidula fornicata

Seasonal extremes in environmental conditions can substantially limit the growth and reproduction of animals. Sedentary marine animals are particularly susceptible to winter food limitation since they cannot relocate to more favourable conditions. In several temperate-zone bivalve species, substantial winter tissue mass declines have been documented; however, no comparable studies have been conducted on intertidal gastropods. Here, we investigate whether the suspension-feeding intertidal gastropod Crepidula fornicata also loses substantial tissue mass during the winter. We calculated body mass index (BMI) for individuals collected in New England at different times of year for 7 years to determine whether BMI declines through winter or varies seasonally. Remarkably, C. fornicata body mass did not decline significantly during winter months; indeed, a relatively poorer body condition was associated with higher seawater temperature, higher air temperature and higher chlorophyll concentration. In a laboratory experiment, we found that C. fornicata adults that were not fed for three weeks at 6°C (local winter seawater temperature) showed no detectable declines in BMI compared to field-collected individuals. Future studies should document energy budgets of C. fornicata and other sedentary marine animals at low winter seawater temperatures, and the impact of short-term elevated temperatures on those energy budgets.

Integrated Population Models: Achieving Their Potential

Precise and accurate estimates of abundance and demographic rates are primary quantities of interest within wildlife conservation and management. Such quantities provide insight into population trends over time and the associated underlying ecological drivers of the systems. This information is fundamental in managing ecosystems, assessing species conservation status and developing and implementing effective conservation policy. Observational monitoring data are typically collected on wildlife populations using an array of different survey protocols, dependent on the primary questions of interest. For each of these survey designs, a range of advanced statistical techniques have been developed which are typically well understood. However, often multiple types of data may exist for the same population under study. Analyzing each data set separately implicitly discards the common information contained in the other data sets. An alternative approach that aims to optimize the shared information contained within multiple data sets is to use a “model-based data integration” approach, or more commonly referred to as an “integrated model.” This integrated modeling approach simultaneously analyzes all the available data within a single, and robust, statistical framework. This paper provides a statistical overview of ecological integrated models, with a focus on integrated population models (IPMs) which include abundance and demographic rates as quantities of interest. Four main challenges within this area are discussed, namely model specification, computational aspects, model assessment and forecasting. This should encourage researchers to explore further and develop new practical tools to ensure that full utility can be made of IPMs for future studies.

A cold high-pressure system over North China hinders the southward migration of Mythimna separata in autumn

BACKGROUND

In warm regions or seasons of the year, the planetary boundary layer is occupied by a huge variety and quantity of insects, but the southward migration of insects (in East Asia) in autumn is still poorly understood.

METHODS

We collated daily catches of the oriental armyworm (Mythimna separata) moth from 20 searchlight traps from 2014 to 2017 in China. In order to explore the autumn migratory connectivity of M. separata in East China, we analyzed the autumn climate and simulated the autumn migration process of moths.

RESULTS

The results confirmed that northward moth migration in spring and summer under the East Asian monsoon system can bring rapid population growth. However, slow southerly wind (blowing towards the north) prevailed over the major summer breeding area in North China (33°-40° N) due to a cold high-pressure system located there, and this severely disrupts the autumn 'return' migration of this pest. Less than 8% of moths from the summer breeding area successfully migrated back to their winter-breeding region, resulting in a sharp decline of the population abundance in autumn. As northerly winds (blowing towards the south) predominate at the eastern periphery of a high-pressure system, the westward movement of the high-pressure system leads to more northerlies over North China, increasing the numbers of moths migrating southward successfully. Therefore, an outbreak year of M. separata larvae was associated with a more westward position of the high-pressure system during the previous autumn.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that the southward migration in autumn is crucial for sustaining pest populations of M. separata, and the position of the cold high-pressure system in September is a key environmental driver of the population size in the next year. This study indicates that the autumn migration of insects in East China is more complex than previously recognized, and that the meteorological conditions in autumn are an important driver of migratory insects' seasonal and interannual population dynamics.

Multi-season climate projections forecast declines in migratory monarch butterflies

Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected changes in breeding-season climate are likely to lead to decreases in monarch abundance, with high potential for overwintering population size to fall below the historical minimum three or more times in the next two decades. Climatic changes across the expansive summer breeding grounds will also cause shifts in the distribution of monarchs, with higher projected abundances in areas that become wetter but not appreciably hotter (e.g., northern Ohio) and declines in abundance where summer temperatures are projected to increase well above those observed in the recent past (e.g., northern Minnesota). Although climate uncertainties dominate long-term population forecasts, our analyses suggest that we can improve precision of near-term forecasts by collecting targeted data to better understand relationships between breeding-season climate variables and local monarch abundance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impacts of climate changes throughout the full-annual cycle of migratory species.

Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies

Many insects are in clear decline, with monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) drawing particular attention as a flagship species. It is well documented that, among migratory populations, numbers of overwintering monarchs have been falling across several decades, but trends among breeding monarchs are less clear. Here, we compile >135,000 monarch observations between 1993 and 2018 from the North American Butterfly Association's annual butterfly count to examine spatiotemporal patterns and potential drivers of adult monarch relative abundance trends across the entire breeding range in eastern and western North America. While the data revealed declines at some sites, particularly the US Northeast and parts of the Midwest, numbers in other areas, notably the US Southeast and Northwest, were unchanged or increasing, yielding a slightly positive overall trend across the species range. Negative impacts of agricultural glyphosate use appeared to be counterbalanced by positive effects of annual temperature, particularly in the US Midwest. Overall, our results suggest that population growth in summer is compensating for losses during the winter and that changing environmental variables have offsetting effects on mortality and/or reproduction. We suggest that density-dependent reproductive compensation when lower numbers arrive each spring is currently able to maintain relatively stable breeding monarch numbers. However, we caution against complacency since accelerating climate change may bring growing threats. In addition, increases of summer monarchs in some regions, especially in California and in the south, may reflect replacement of migratory with resident populations. Nonetheless, it is perhaps reassuring that ubiquitous downward trends in summer monarch abundance are not evident.

Different factors limit early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch development

Seasonal windows of opportunity are intervals within a year that provide improved prospects for growth, survival, or reproduction. However, few studies have sufficient temporal resolution to examine how multiple factors combine to constrain the seasonal timing and extent of developmental opportunities. Here, we document seasonal changes in milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis)-monarch (Danaus plexippus) interactions with high resolution throughout the last three breeding seasons prior to a precipitous single-year decline in the western monarch population. Our results show early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch recruitment that were constrained by different combinations of factors. Early-season windows of opportunity were characterized by high egg densities and low survival on a select subset of host plants, consistent with the hypothesis that early-spring migrant female monarchs select earlier-emerging plants to balance a seasonal trade-off between increasing host plant quantity and decreasing host plant quality. Late-season windows of opportunity were coincident with the initiation of host plant senescence, and caterpillar success was negatively correlated with heatwave exposure, consistent with the hypothesis that late-season windows were constrained by plant defense traits and thermal stress. Throughout this study, climatic and microclimatic variations played a foundational role in the timing and success of monarch developmental windows by affecting bottom-up, top-down, and abiotic limitations. More exposed microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during cooler conditions, and more shaded microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during warmer conditions, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity could buffer the effects of climatic variation. Together, these findings show an important dimension of seasonal change in milkweed-monarch interactions and illustrate how different biotic and abiotic factors can limit the developmental success of monarchs across the breeding season. These results also suggest the potential for seasonal sequences of favorable or unfavorable conditions across the breeding range to strongly affect monarch population dynamics.

Animal Coloration in the Anthropocene

Natural habitats are increasingly affected by anthropogenically driven environmental changes resulting from habitat destruction, chemical and light pollution, and climate change. Organisms inhabiting such habitats are faced with novel disturbances that can alter their modes of signaling. Coloration is one such sensory modality whose production, perception and function is being affected by human-induced disturbances. Animals that acquire pigment derivatives through diet are adversely impacted by the introduction of chemical pollutants into their environments as well as by general loss of natural habitat due to urbanization or logging leading to declines in pigment sources. Those species that do manage to produce color-based signals and displays may face disruptions to their signaling medium in the form of light pollution and turbidity. Furthermore, forest fragmentation and the resulting breaks in canopy cover can expose animals to predation due to the influx of light into previously dark environments. Global climate warming has been decreasing snow cover in arctic regions, causing birds and mammals that undergo seasonal molts to appear conspicuous against a snowless background. Ectotherms that rely on color for thermoregulation are under pressure to change their appearances. Rapid changes in habitat type through severe fire events or coral bleaching also challenge animals to match their backgrounds. Through this review, we aim to describe the wide-ranging impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes on visual ecology and suggest directions for the use of coloration both as an indicator of ecological change and as a tool for conservation.