Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates

Data-driven evaluation of electric vehicle energy consumption for generalizing standard testing to real-world driving

Standard energy-consumption testing, providing the only publicly available quantifiable measure of battery electric vehicle (BEV) energy consumption, is crucial for promoting transparency and accountability in the electrified automotive industry; however, significant discrepancies between standard testing and real-world driving have hindered energy and environmental assessments of BEVs and their broader adoption. In this study, we propose a data-driven evaluation method for standard testing to characterize BEV energy consumption. By decoupling the impact of the driving profile, our evaluation approach is generalizable to various driving conditions. In experiments with our approach for estimating energy consumption, we achieve a 3.84% estimation error for 13 different multiregional standardized test cycles and a 7.12% estimation error for 106 diverse real-world trips. Our results highlight the great potential of the proposed approach for promoting public awareness of BEV energy consumption through standard testing while also providing a reliable fundamental model of BEVs.

Air quality and health co-benefits of vehicle electrification and emission controls in the most populated United States urban hubs: Insights from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston

Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) is a prominent strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, given the complexity of atmospheric chemistry, the nuanced implications on air quality are yet to be fully understood. Our study delved into changes in PM2.5, ozone, and their associated precursors in major US urban areas, considering various electrification and mitigation scenarios. In the full electrification (FullE) scenario, PM2.5 reduction peaked at values between 0.34 and 2.29 μg.m-3 across distinct regions. Yet, certain areas in eastern Los Angeles exhibited a surprising uptick in PM2.5, reaching as much as 0.67 μg.m-3. This phenomenon was linked to a surge in secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), resulting from shifting NOx/VOCs (volatile organic compounds) dynamics and a spike in hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. The FullE scenario ushered in marked reductions in both NOx and maximum daily average 8-h (MDA8) ozone concentrations, with maximum levels ranging from 14.00 to 32.34 ppb and 2.58-9.58 ppb, respectively. However, certain instances revealed growths in MDA8 ozone concentrations, underscoring the intricacies of air quality management. From a health perspective, in the FullE scenario, New York, Chicago, and Houston stand to potentially avert 796, 328, and 157 premature deaths/month, respectively. Los Angeles could prevent 104 premature deaths/month in the HighE-BL scenario, representing a 29 % EV share for light-duty vehicles. However, the FullE scenario led to a rise in mortality in Los Angeles due to increased PM2.5 and MDA8 ozone levels. Economically, the FullE scenario projects health benefits amounting to 51-249 million $/day for New York, Chicago, and Houston. In contrast, Los Angeles may face economic downturns of up to 18 million $/day. In conclusion, while EV integration has the potential to improve urban air quality, offering substantial health and economic advantages, challenges persist. Our results emphasize the pivotal role of VOCs management, providing policymakers with insights for adaptable and efficient measures.

An analysis and prediction of carbon emissions in the sphere of consumer lifestyles in Beijing

In alignment with China's "dual carbon" goals and its quest to build an ecological civilization, this study scrutinizes the carbon emissions derived from consumer lifestyles, with a particular focus on Beijing, a high-consumption urban metropolis. Utilizing the expanded STIRPAT model and ridge regression, factors such as permanent population, per capita consumption expenditure, energy intensity, energy structure, and consumption structure are examined to evaluate their impact on lifestyle-associated carbon emissions. A scenario analysis is also conducted to project future carbon emissions in Beijing. From 2010 to 2020, there was an overall upward trend in lifestyle-associated carbon emissions, up to a maximum of 87.8260 million tons. Indirect consumption-related carbon emissions, particularly those associated with residential and transportation-related consumption, constituted the primary sources. The most influential factors on carbon emissions were found to be the consumption structure. Notably, adopting a low-carbon consumption mindset and an optimized consumption structure could foster significant carbon reduction. Projections suggest that by 2035, carbon emissions due to residents' consumption could decline by 39.72% under a low-carbon consumption scenario and by 48.74% under a coordinated development scenario. Future efforts should prioritize promoting green, low-carbon living, refining consumption structure and practices, curbing excessive housing consumption, improving energy structure, and raising technological and energy efficiency standards.

Decarbonising road freight transport: The role of zero-emission trucks and intangible costs

The road freight sector faces significant challenges in decarbonisation, driven by high energy demand and limited availability of low-emission fuels and commercialised zero-emission vehicles. This study investigates intangible costs associated with advanced electric and hydrogen-powered trucks, including recharging/refuelling time, cargo capacity limitations, and buyer reluctance towards emerging technologies. Utilising a comprehensive whole-systems modelling approach considering low- and zero-emission fuels, inter-sectoral dynamics, and the carbon budget, we explore cost-optimal decarbonisation pathways for heavy, medium, and light trucks. Scenario and sensitivity analyses reveal the following insights: (1) Electric trucks dominate the market under mitigation pathways across all weight categories. However, the inclusion of intangible costs triggers a shift, leading to the emergence of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for heavy trucks, while battery electric vehicles are preferred for medium and small trucks. (2) Prioritising heavy truck decarbonisation and taking early action are crucial to avoid carbon lock-in effects. (3) Considering limited decarbonisation options, where electric and hydrogen-fuelled trucks are pivotal, this research highlights the significance of policy instruments targeting operational expenditures over conventional purchase price incentives. Such policies offer dual benefits by supporting truck owners and directing incentives more precisely towards achieving measurable emission reductions.

A cross-scale framework for evaluating flexibility values of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles

Flexibility has become increasingly important considering the intermittency of variable renewable energy in low-carbon energy systems. Electrified transportation exhibits great potential to provide flexibility. This article analyzed and compared the flexibility values of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles for planning and operating interdependent electricity and hydrogen supply chains while considering battery degradation costs. A cross-scale framework involving both macro-level and micro-level models was proposed to compute the profits of flexible EV refueling/charging with battery degradation considered. Here we show that the flexibility reduction after considering battery degradation is quantified by at least 4.7% of the minimum system cost and enlarged under fast charging and low-temperature scenarios. Our findings imply that energy policies and relevant management technologies are crucial to shaping the comparative flexibility advantage of the two transportation electrification pathways. The proposed cross-scale methodology has broad implications for the assessment of emerging energy technologies with complex dynamics.

A resilient battery electric bus transit system configuration

Electric mobility is fundamental to combat climate change and attaining the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-11). However, electric mobility necessitates a seamless integration between power and transportation systems, as the resiliency of both systems is becoming far more interdependent. Here, we focus on disruption to Battery Electric Bus (BEB) transit system charging infrastructure and offer a resilient BEB transit system planning model. The proposed model optimizes the BEB system costs while ensuring the system's robustness against simultaneous charging station failures. In our case study, a single charging station failure would lead to up to 34.03% service reduction, and two simultaneous failures would reduce the service by up to 58.18%. Our proposed two-stage robust model addresses this issue with a relatively small added cost (3.26% and 8.12% higher than the base model). This cost enables uninterrupted BEB system operation during disruption, ensuring personal mobility, social interaction, and economic productivity.

Sustainable development pathways for energies in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

The sustainable development of urban agglomerations plays a pivotal role in national and global efforts to reduce emissions. By focusing on the efficient exchange and optimization of energy consumption across various sectors, the sustainable development of energy systems within urban agglomerations can be achieved. However, the overall impact of the cross-sector energy optimization and complementarity has not been quantitatively analyzed. Here, we focused on the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in China and proposed an optimization framework for energy, environment, and economy. The framework considered four sectors: transportation sector, power sector, industry sector, and building sector, in order to determine the most sustainable development pathway for the urban agglomeration. The optimization model considers total costs and greenhouse gas emissions reduction as the objectives and utilizes technologies as constraints to optimize the pathway. We found that this optimization strategy resulted in a 53.1 billion tons increase in CO2 emissions reduction in the region. The results of emission reduction varied across sectors, ranging from 4.5 to 22.2 billion tons CO2 equivalent, and across cities, ranging from 7.1 to 4688.1 Mt. The results suggest that the core cities in the urban agglomeration can take on a leadership role. By promoting cross-sector collaboration and implementing energy recycling, the energy efficiency of surrounding cities can be greatly improved, leading to the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration.

Material flow analysis on the critical resources from spent power lithium-ion batteries under the framework of China's recycling policies

With the rapid growth of electric vehicles in China, the number of spent power lithium-ion batteries is dramatically increased. Considering the environmental risk, security risk, and potential resource value, China has issued a series of laws and regulations to manage the spent power lithium-ion batteries. This work employs the material flow analysis method to evaluate the material flows of Li, Ni, Co, and Mn during the life cycle of power lithium-ion batteries under the framework of China's recycling policy system. The results show that the demand for primary Li, Ni, Co, and Mn can achieve 26.9, 68.1, 20.4, and 21.9 kt in 2021, and a lot of primary critical resources will inburst the in-use stage. Moreover, the number of secondary Li, Ni, Co, and Mn can achieve 6.1, 15.4, 4.6, and 5 kt in 2021, accounting for 22.7%, 22.6%, 22.5%, and 22.8% of their corresponding demand. Based on the economic evaluation under the framework of China's recycling policy system, it is found that the potential recycling values of Li, Ni, Co, and Mn are approximately 966, 523, 414, and 43 million RMB yuan, which are 66.4%, 71%, 59.6%, and 66.4% higher than those in the absence of China's recycling policy system. It is implied that China's recycling policy system could markedly improve the collection rate by reducing losses and indirectly enhancing the recycling and reuse of spent power lithium-ion batteries. This work is expected to provide guidance for policymakers to improve the management of spent power lithium-ion batteries in China.

Trade-Offs between Direct Emission Reduction and Intersectoral Additional Emissions: Evidence from the Electrification Transition in China's Transport Sector

Electrifying the transport sector is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving Paris Agreement targets. This largely depends on rapid decarbonization in power plants; however, we often overlook the trade-offs between reduced transportation emissions and additional energy-supply sector emissions induced by electrification. Here, we developed a framework for China's transport sector, including analyzing driving factors of historical CO2 emissions, collecting energy-related parameters of numerous vehicles based on the field- investigation, and assessing the energy-environment impacts of electrification policies with national heterogeneity. We find holistic electrification in China's transport sector will cause substantial cumulative CO2 emission reduction (2025-2075), equivalent to 19.8-42% of global annual emissions, but with a 2.2-16.1 GtCO2 net increase considering the additional emissions in energy-supply sectors. It also leads to a 5.1- to 6.7-fold increase in electricity demand, and the resulting CO2 emissions far surpass the emission reduction achieved. Only under 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios, forcing further decarbonization in the energy supply sectors, will the holistic electrification of transportation have a robust mitigation effect, -2.5 to -7.0 Gt and -6.4 to -11.3 Gt net-negative emissions, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that electrifying the transport sector cannot be a one-size-fits-all policy, requiring synergistically decarbonization efforts in the energy-supply sectors.

Exploring the promotion of green technology innovation in the new energy vehicle industry: An evolutionary game analysis

This paper aims to explore how to promote green technology innovation (GTI) among new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers and the strategic changes among the government, manufacturers, and consumers. From the perspective of evolutionary game theory, a tripartite evolutionary game model is established to analyze the influence of key factors on the tripartite strategies in the context of the government's willingness to subsidize gradually decreases. The main findings are as follows: (1) government subsidies provided to manufacturers better promote their willingness to participate in GTI. The relationship between government subsidies and GTI is not linear, and the government cannot blindly increase the level of subsidies. (2) The willingness of NEV manufacturers to engage in GTI is influenced by price and consumer purchase preferences. The higher the price of new energy vehicle using green technology (NEVG) is not better, and lowering the price of NEVGs can promote manufacturers' participation in GTI and consumers' purchase of NEVGs. (3) Increasing the mileage of NEVGs and consumers' green consumption preferences will effectively increase consumers' willingness to purchase. Accordingly, this study suggests that to enhance manufacturers' participation in GTI, the government should increase subsidies and encourage green consumption among consumers. In addition, manufacturers should focus on improving the mileage of NEVGs and reducing their prices to make them more accessible to consumers.

The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand

The growing urban transport sector presents towns and cities with an escalating challenge in the reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we assess the effectiveness of several widely considered policy options (electrification, light-weighting, retrofitting, scrapping, regulated manufacturing standards and modal shift) in achieving the transition to sustainable urban mobility in terms of their emissions and energy impact until 2050. Our analysis investigates the severity of actions needed to comply with Paris compliant regional sub-sectoral carbon budgets. We introduce the Urban Transport Policy Model (UTPM) for passenger car fleets and use London as an urban case study to show that current policies are insufficient to meet climate targets. We conclude that, as well as implementation of emission-reducing changes in vehicle design, a rapid and large-scale reduction in car use is necessary to meet stringent carbon budgets and avoid high energy demand. Yet, without increased consensus in sub-national and sectoral carbon budgets, the scale of reduction necessary stays uncertain. Nevertheless, it is certain we need to act urgently and intensively across all policy mechanisms available as well as developing new policy options.

How does transportation infrastructure affect urban carbon emissions? an empirical study based on 286 cities in China

With the extensive and in-depth exploration of the relationship between municipal infrastructure and carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities, the implicit internal relationship with traffic has become increasingly profound. Based on the Spatial Dubin Model (SDM) and mediation effect theory, the affiliation mechanism of transportation infrastructure affecting carbon emissions was investigated using a panel dataset of 286 cities in China during a 15-year period from 2002 to 2017. The findings revealed that carbon emissions may cluster in space, especially in developed regions in China, which exhibit high-high aggregation, and transportation infrastructure, industrial structure, energy consumption, and the improvement in Internet of things information technology promote communication and flow between prefecture-level cities, but the nexus between traffic system and carbon emissions is nonlinear and endogenous, especially road infrastructure exacerbating peripheral urban carbon emissions through industrial agglomeration effects and tourism mobility effects as mediating factors. In terms of nationalized industrial distribution, the strategy for large-scale development of western China and the shift in economic and industrial focus to less developed prefecture-level cities fit with the empirical results of this study. Moreover, optimizing the industrial structure and developing clean energy could effectively mitigate carbon emissions. Policy-makers could also change residents' cultural consumption perceptions by promoting green tourism and government subsidies to achieve China's carbon neutrality policy goals.

Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO₂ and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO₂ and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM_2.5 sources-such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions-can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO₂ policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.

Greenhouse gas emission benefits of adopting new energy vehicles in Suzhou City, China: A case study

The promotion of new energy in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is considered as an effective approach for achieving low-carbon road transport targets. In this study, life cycle assessment was performed for five typical vehicle models in Suzhou City (fourth largest LDV stock in China): internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Their energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions during vehicle and fuel cycles in 2020 were examined using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. GHG emission reduction potential of LDV fleet was projected under various scenarios for 2021-2040. The results showed that BEVs exhibited advantages for replacing ICEVs over HEVs, PHEVs and HFCVs, taking into account China's road electrification policy. The GHG emission intensity of BEVs in 2040 was estimated to be 19-34% of ICEVs in 2020, with a deep decarbonized electricity mix and improved vehicle efficiency. For the aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario, the GHG emissions of LDVs would peak before 2026, ahead of China's target by 2030, and the ~ 100% share of EVs in 2040 would result in a lower GHG emissions, equivalent to the 2010 level. It highlights the importance of early action, green electricity mix, and public transport development in reducing GHG emissions of large LDV fleet.

Drone flight data reveal energy and greenhouse gas emissions savings for very small package delivery

Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) for last-mile deliveries will affect the energy productivity of delivery and require new methods to understand energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We combine empirical testing of 188 quadcopter flights across a range of speeds with a first-principles analysis to develop a usable energy model and a machine-learning algorithm to assess energy across takeoff, cruise, and landing. Our model shows that an electric quadcopter drone with a very small package (0.5 kg) would consume approximately 0.08 MJ/km and result in 70 g of CO2e per package in the United States. We compare drone delivery with other vehicles and show that energy per package delivered by drones (0.33 MJ/package) can be up to 94% lower than conventional transportation modes, with only electric cargo bicycles providing lower GHGs/package. Our open model and coefficients can assist stakeholders in understanding and improving the sustainability of small package delivery.

Carbon Emission Measurement of Urban Green Passenger Transport: A Case Study of Qingdao

Urban passenger transport is one of the most significant sources of fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission, especially in developing countries. The rapid growth of urban transport makes it a critical target for carbon reduction. This paper establishes a method for calculating carbon emission from urban passenger transport including ground buses, private cars, cruising taxis, online-hailing taxis, and rail transit. The scope of the study is determined according to the transportation mode and energy type, and the carbon emission factor of each energy source is also determined according to the local energy structure, etc. Taking into consideration the development trend of new energy vehicles, a combination of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches is used to estimate the carbon dioxide emission of each transportation mode. The results reveal that carbon emission from Qingdao’s passenger transport in 2020 was 8.15 million tons, of which 84.31% came from private cars, while the share of private cars of total travel was only 45.66%. Ground buses are the most efficient mode of transport. Fossil fuels emit more greenhouse gases than other clean energy sources. The emission intensity of hydrogen fuel cell buses is better than that of other fuel type vehicles. Battery electric buses have the largest sensitivity coefficient, therefore the carbon emission reduction potentially achieved by developing battery electric buses is most significant.

A Long-Term Decarbonisation Modelling and Optimisation Approach for Transport Sector Planning Considering Modal Shift and Infrastructure Construction: A Case Study of China

Reducing direct carbon emissions in the transport sector is crucial for carbon neutrality. It is a considerable challenge to achieve substantial CO2 emissions reductions while satisfying rapidly growing traffic demands. Previous studies cannot be applied directly in long-term planning for the transport sector with rapid demand growth. To bridge this gap, a multi-regional model is proposed in this paper to quantify the optimal decarbonisation path for the transport sector in order to save costs. Considering modal shift and infrastructure construction, this model regards the transport sector as a whole and China is taken as a case study. The results show that electricity and hydrogen will be the major fuels of the transport sector in the future, accounting for 45 percent and 25 percent of fuel demands in 2060. This means that the electricity used by the transport sector accounts for 10 percent of the electricity consumed by the whole of society. The results reflect that freight transport has reached a CO2 emissions peak, while passenger transport will reach its own CO2 emissions peak around 2041. Giving priority to decarbonisation in freight transport can save 5 percent of the transition cost. The results also suggest that modal shift can save at most 7 percent of the transition cost.

The impact of high-tech product export trade on regional carbon performance in China: the mediating roles of industrial structure supererogation, low-carbon technological innovation, and human capital accumulation

The role of expanding the proportion of high-tech products in the export trade of various countries to identify the appropriate export structure has gradually attracted the attention of governments and scholars. While there is some knowledge on how high-tech product exports affect carbon dioxide emissions, the mechanisms involved in that link have not been adequately addressed in previous studies. This study is based on China's inter-provincial panel data from 2006 to 2017 and uses the stepwise regression method and the bootstrap method to systematically investigate the mediating effects of industrial structure supererogation, low-carbon technological innovation, and human capital accumulation, operating in the impact of high-tech product export trade on regional carbon performance. Since the Pesaran's CD test and the P&Y slope homogeneity test confirm the presence of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity in the panel data, we use the CADF and CIPS unit root tests to verify the stationarity of the variables and therefore employ the CCEMG and DCCE estimators for regression estimation. The research results show that high-tech product exports can help improve regional carbon performance. The mediating variables, industrial structure supererogation, low-carbon technological innovation, and human capital accumulation separately have positive and complete mediating effects on the link between high-tech product export trade and regional carbon performance. The research results highlight the important part of expanding high-tech product exports in improving regional carbon performance and have significance in promoting China's green and low-carbon transition.

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.