The drivers of sustained use of liquified petroleum gas in India

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Household Air Pollution Interventions to Improve Health in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: An Official American Thoracic Society Research Statement

Background: An estimated 3 billion people, largely in low- and middle-income countries, rely on unclean fuels for cooking, heating, and lighting to meet household energy needs. The resulting exposure to household air pollution (HAP) is a leading cause of pneumonia, chronic lung disease, and other adverse health effects. In the last decade, randomized controlled trials of clean cooking interventions to reduce HAP have been conducted. We aim to provide guidance on how to interpret the findings of these trials and how they should inform policy makers and practitioners.Methods: We assembled a multidisciplinary working group of international researchers, public health practitioners, and policymakers with expertise in household air pollution from within academia, the American Thoracic Society, funders, nongovernmental organizations, and global organizations, including the World Bank and the World Health Organization. We performed a literature search, convened four sessions via web conference, and developed consensus conclusions and recommendations via the Delphi method.Results: The committee reached consensus on 14 conclusions and recommendations. Although some trials using cleaner-burning biomass stoves or cleaner-cooking fuels have reduced HAP exposure, the committee was divided (with 55% saying no and 45% saying yes) on whether the studied interventions improved measured health outcomes.Conclusions: HAP is associated with adverse health effects in observational studies. However, it remains unclear which household energy interventions reduce exposure, improve health, can be scaled, and are sustainable. Researchers should engage with policy makers and practitioners working to scale cleaner energy solutions to understand and address their information needs.

Changing profile of suicide methods in India: 2014-2021

BACKGROUND

Restricting access to suicide methods is one of the most effective suicide prevention approaches.

METHODS

Trends in method specific suicide rates (2014-2021) in India were calculated using National Crime Records Bureau data (NCRB) by sex and geographical region. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to empirically identify any changes in suicide trends.

RESULTS

Suicide rates by hanging increased from 6.08 to 10.0 per 100,000 population among males and from 2.55 to 3.56 per 100,000 among females over the study period. Insecticide poisoning suicide rates also increased from 1.51 to 2.73 per 100,000 among males and from 0.74 to 1.14 per 100,000 among females. Suicide by self-immolation decreased over the study period among both sexes. In general, these national trends were mirrored among different regions. Joinpoint regression indicated an increase in suicide by hanging (annual percentage change (APC) of 12.3 among males between 2018 and 2021 and 4.9 among females between 2014 and 2021) and an increase in male suicide by insecticide poisoning between 2014 and 2021 (APC of 4.2) while a decrease in self-immolation rates was noted among males (APC of -12.7 between 2014 and 2021) and females (APC of -16.5 between 2016 and 2021).

LIMITATION

The NCRB data might underestimate true suicide rates.

CONCLUSION

Hanging suicides and insecticides poisoning suicides observed an increasing trend between 2014 and 2021. Self-immolation rates decreased during the study period which might be, in part, associated with the initiative to provide clean cooking fuel to households. Ban on lethal pesticides must be prioritised which might help lower insecticide poisoning suicide rates.

A global review of the state of the evidence of household air pollution's contribution to ambient fine particulate matter and their related health impacts

Direct exposure to household fine particulate air pollution (HAP) associated with inefficient combustion of fuels (wood, charcoal, coal, crop residues, kerosene, etc.) for cooking, space-heating, and lighting is estimated to result in 2.3 (1.6-3.1) million premature yearly deaths globally. HAP emitted indoors escapes outdoors and is a leading source of outdoor ambient fine particulate air pollution (AAP) in low- and middle-income countries, often being a larger contributor than well-recognized sources including road transport, industry, coal-fired power plants, brick kilns, and construction dust. We review published scientific studies that model the contribution of HAP to AAP at global and major sub-regional scales. We describe strengths and limitations of the current state of knowledge on HAP's contribution to AAP and the related impact on public health and provide recommendations to improve these estimates. We find that HAP is a dominant source of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) globally - regardless of variations in model types, configurations, and emission inventories used - that contributes approximately 20 % of total global PM2.5 exposure. There are large regional variations: in South Asia, HAP contributes ∼ 30 % of ambient PM2.5, while in high-income North America the fraction is ∼ 7 %. The median estimate indicates that the household contribution to ambient air pollution results in a substantial premature mortality burden globally of about 0.77(0.54-1) million excess deaths, in addition to the 2.3 (1.6-3.1) million deaths from direct HAP exposure. Coordinated global action is required to avert this burden.

Nitrated and oxygenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emissions from solid fuel combustion in rural China: Database of 12 real-world scenarios for residential cooking and heating activities

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derivatives such as oxygenated PAHs (oPAHs) and nitrated PAHs (nPAHs), are receiving raising concerns due to their high toxic potential. Incomplete solid fuel combustion can release large quantities of PAHs derivatives, especially in low-efficiency domestic stoves. In this study, field measurements were conducted in rural Chinese homes to determine emissions of nPAHs and oPAHs from solid fuel combustion. A total of 12 fuel-stove combinations including cooking and space heating activities were investigated. Emission factors (EFs) of total nPAHs and oPAHs were in the range of 1.0-682.1 μg/kg and 0.01-131.7 mg/kg, respectively, with arithmetic means and stand deviations of 53.5 ± 72.5 μg/kg and 13.9 ± 24.4 mg/kg, respectively. The EFs of nPAHs and oPAHs for coal combustion (including honeycomb briquette, coal chunk, and peat tested in this study) were 30.2 ± 28.1 μg/kg and 1.5 ± 2.9 mg/kg, respectively, much lower than that for biomass burning (p < 0.05). The combustion phase could significantly affect the PAHs derivative emissions with higher emissions at initial phase than that at stable phase. Fuel type was found to affect the EFs, composition profiles, and ratios of PAHs derivatives to parent PAHs. This study tries to have an insight of PAHs derivative emissions from various solid fuel combustion, which would be useful in understanding the atmospheric PAHs derivative pollutions in China.

Association between the domestic use of solid cooking fuel and increased prevalence of depression and cognitive impairment in a big developing country: A large-scale population-based study

Background

Previous studies have suggested that air pollution affects physiological and psychological health. Using solid fuel at home is a significant source of indoor air pollution. The associations between solid fuel use and depressive symptoms and cognitive health were unclear among older adults from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

To evaluate the association of solid fuel use with depressive symptoms and cognitive health among older adults, we obtained data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) and excluded subjects younger than 60 years and without critical data (solid fuel use, depressive symptoms, and cognitive health). The 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10) was used to assess depressive symptoms, with more than ten indicative of depression. Cognitive health was assessed using measures from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and subjects with the lowest 10th percentile were considered to have cognitive impairment. The participants' responses defined solid fuel use. Multivariable logistic regression, linear regression, subgroup analysis, and interaction tests were performed to appraise the relationship between solid fuel use and depression and cognitive impairment.

Results

A total of 29,789 participants over 60 years old were involved in this study. Almost half of the participants (47.5%) reported using solid fuel for home cooking. Compared with clean fuel use, solid fuel use was related to an increased prevalence of depression [odds ratio (OR) 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.16] and higher CES-D-10 scores (β 0.23, 95% CI 0.12-0.35) after fully adjusted covariables. Using solid fuel was also related to a higher risk of cognitive impairment (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.11-1.32) and a lower cognitive score (β -0.63, 95% CI -0.79 to -0.47) compared with those who used clean fuel. In the subgroup analysis, the prevalence of depression increased in females and non-smokers. The association of solid fuel use with depression and cognitive impairment exists in subgroups of BMI, economic status, caste, living area, education, and drinking.

Conclusions

The use of solid fuel at home was associated with an increased prevalence of depression and cognitive impairment among older adults in India.

Assessing the Effects of Stove Use Patterns and Kitchen Chimneys on Indoor Air Quality during a Multiyear Cookstove Randomized Control Trial in Rural India

We conducted indoor air quality (IAQ) measurements during a multiyear cookstove randomized control trial in two rural areas in northern and southern India. A total of 1205 days of kitchen PM_2.5 were measured in control and intervention households during six ∼3 month long measurement periods across two study locations. Stoves used included traditional solid fuel (TSF), improved biomass, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) models. Intent-to-treat analysis indicates that the intervention reduced average 24 h PM_2.5 and black carbon in only one of the two follow-up measurement periods in both areas, suggesting mixed effectiveness. Average PM_2.5 levels were ∼50% lower in households with LPG (for exclusive LPG use: >75% lower) than in those without LPG. PM_2.5 was 66% lower in households making exclusive use of an improved chimney stove versus a traditional chimney stove and TSF-exclusive kitchens with a built-in chimney had ∼60% lower PM_2.5 than those without a chimney, indicating that kitchen ventilation can be as important as the stove technology in improving IAQ. Diurnal trends in real-time PM_2.5 indicate that kitchen chimneys were especially effective at reducing peak concentrations, which leads to decreases in daily PM_2.5 in these households. Our data demonstrate a clear hierarchy of IAQ improvement in real world, "stove-stacking" households, driven by different stove technologies and kitchen characteristics.

Will open waste burning become India's largest air pollution source?

India struggles with frequent exceedances of the ambient air quality standard for particulate matter and benzene. In the past two decades, India has made considerable progress in tackling indoor air pollution, by phasing out kerosene lamps, and pushing biofuel using households towards Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) usage. In this study, we use updated emission inventories and trends in residential fuel consumption, to explore changes in the contribution of different sectors towards India's largest air pollution problem. We find that residential fuel usage is still the largest air pollution source, and that the <10% households using cow dung as cooking fuel contribute ∼50% of the residential PM_2.5 emissions. However, if current trends persist, residential biofuel usage in India is likely to be phased out by 2035. India's renewable energy policies are likely to reduce emissions in the heat and electricity sector, and manufacturing industries, in the mid-term. PM_2.5 emissions from open waste burning, on the other hand, hardly changed in the decade from 2010 to 2020. We conclude that without strong policies to promote recycling and upcycling of non-biodegradable waste, and the conversion of biodegradable waste to biogas, open waste burning is likely to become India's largest source of air pollution by 2035. While our study is limited to India, our findings are of relevance for other countries in the global South suffering from similar waste management challenges.

Limited Demand or Unreliable Supply? A Bibliometric Review and Computational Text Analysis of Research on Energy Policy in India

Although India has made significant progress towards the sustainable development goal on energy (SDG 7), further policy innovations are essential for closing the gap, addressing geographic disparities, and harnessing energy for transformative change. Research can support this process by creating policy-relevant knowledge regarding the energy transition, but there is no systematic account of the literature pertaining to energy policy in India to map the research area and suggest key avenues for future research. In this study, I conduct a bibliometric review and computational text analysis of over 2700 publications to identify the key themes, geographies, and public policy concepts (not) examined in the research on energy policy in India. I find that: (i) the literature is dominated by topics in energy supply and less attention is paid to demand-side management, energy efficiency, and electricity distribution; (ii) existing studies have hardly examined subnational policy (-making), especially in the case of eastern and north-eastern India; and (iii) research on both analysis for policy and analysis of policy is limited. I conclude that the current foci lack the breadth and depth necessary for supporting the Indian energy transition and urge scholars to diversify the thematic, geographic, and conceptual engagement in future research.

Gender and LPG use after government intervention in rural north India

Exposure to air pollution from cooking with solid fuels has important consequences for public health. This paper focuses on rural north India, where despite robust economic growth and government subsidies, the vast majority of households mainly use solid fuels. We draw on new qualitative and quantitative data collected in the context of a policy environment that dramatically expanded ownership of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to examine why households are slow to adopt clean fuels in rural north India. We find that patriarchal gender norms and attitudes encourage the use of solid fuels in this region. North Indian society confers low status to women, promotes women's seclusion, and constrains women's engagement in economic activities outside of the home. These beliefs encourage women to preserve gas, promote women's work that facilitates the use of solid fuels, and hinder communication between the cook and the decision-maker regarding LPG refills. When rural north Indian households use gas, it is frequently to facilitate the adherence to norms of seclusion that prevent women from leaving the home to collect solid fuels. In addition to expanding access and improving economic conditions, future research and policy interventions should pay careful attention to the gender norms and attitudes that discourage the use of gas. Addressing these beliefs and norms is essential to sustained LPG use and health improvements.

Toward Clean Residential Energy: Challenges and Priorities in Research

Solid fuels used for cooking, heating, and lighting are major emission sources of many air pollutants, specifically PM_2.5 and black carbon, resulting in adverse environmental and health impacts. At the same time, the transition from using residential solid fuels toward using cleaner energy sources can result in significant health benefits. Here, we briefly review recent research progress on the emissions of air pollutants from the residential sector and the impacts of emissions on ambient and indoor air quality, population exposure, and health consequences. The major challenges and future research priorities are identified and discussed.

Towards Sustainable Development Goal 7 “Universal Access to Clean Modern Energy”: National Strategy in Rwanda to Scale Clean Cooking with Bottled Gas

More than 90% of Rwandans rely on polluting solid fuels to meet their cooking needs. The negative impacts on health, climate, and the environment have led the Rwandan government to set a target of halving that number to 42% by 2024. A National Master Plan to promote scale up of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has been developed to define (i) the necessary market conditions, (ii) public and private sector interventions, and (iii) the expected societal impacts. Findings are reported from modelling scenarios of scaling LPG use towards the 2024 policy target and the 2030 target for “universal access to clean modern energy” (SDG7). Household LPG use is projected to increase from 5.6% in 2020 to 13.2% by 2024 and 38.5% by 2030. This level of adoption could result in a reduction of 7656 premature deaths and 403,664 disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs), as well as 243 million trees saved. Reductions in carbon dioxide and black carbon emissions equivalents (CO2e and BCe, respectively) are estimated to reach 25.6 million MT and 14.9 MT, respectively, by 2030. While aggressive policy intervention is required, the health, environmental, and developmental benefits are clear. Implementation of the Rwanda National LPG Master Plan will provide a model for other sub-Saharan African countries to address the priorities for cessation of reliance on solid fuels as an energy source.

Health Benefits and Costs of Clean Heating Renovation: An Integrated Assessment in a Major Chinese City

China has been promoting one of the world's largest campaigns for clean heating renovation since 2017. Here, we present an integrated cost-benefit analysis in a major prefecture-level city by combining a large-scale household energy survey and PM_2.5 exposure measurement, high-resolution chemical transport simulation, and health impact assessment. We find that the completed renovation decreases the share of solid fuels in the heating energy mix from 96 to 6% and achieves a concomitant reduction of cooking solid-fuel use by 70%. The completed renovation decreases the ambient PM_2.5 concentration in Linfen by 0.5-5 μg m^-3 (2.4 μg m^-3 on average) and decreases the integrated PM_2.5 exposure by 4.2 (3.5-5.0) μg m^-3. The renovation is estimated to avoid 162 (125-225) and 328 (254-457) premature deaths annually based on two health impact assessment methods. The ratios of monetized health benefits to cost are 1.51 (0.73-2.59) and 3.06 (1.49-5.23) based on the above two methods. The benefit-to-cost ratio is projected to remain high if the renovation is further expanded. More polluted and less wealthy households enjoy larger health benefits but also experience a higher expense increase, suggesting that a more carefully designed subsidy policy is needed to protect low-income households.

BioLPG for Clean Cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: Present and Future Feasibility of Technologies, Feedstocks, Enabling Conditions and Financing

Energy supply for clean cooking is a priority for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, i.e., propane or butane or a mixture of both) is an economically efficient, cooking energy solution used by over 2.5 billion people worldwide and scaled up in numerous low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Investigation of the technical, policy, economic and physical requirements of producing LPG from renewable feedstocks (bioLPG) finds feasibility at scale in Africa. Biogas and syngas from the circular economic repurposing of municipal solid waste and agricultural waste can be used in two groundbreaking new chemical processes (Cool LPG or Integrated Hydropyrolysis and Hydroconversion (IH2)) to selectively produce bioLPG. Evidence about the nature and scale potential of bioLPG presented in this study justifies further investment in the development of bioLPG as a fuel that can make a major contribution toward enabling an SSA green economy and universal energy access. Techno-economic assessments of five potential projects from Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda illustrate what might be possible. BioLPG technology is in the early days of development, so normal technology piloting and de-risking need to be undertaken. However, fully developed bioLPG production could greatly reduce the public and private sector investment required to significantly increase SSA clean cooking capacity.

Firewood, forests, and fringe populations: Exploring the inequitable socioeconomic dimensions of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) adoption in India

Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) is an important clean fuel alternative for households that rely on burning biomass for daily cooking needs. In India, Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) has provided poor households with LPG connections since 2016. We investigate cooking fuel use in households to determine the impact of the policy in the Central Indian Highlands Landscape (CIHL). The CIHL has a large population of marginalized social groups, including Indigenous, Scheduled Tribe, Schedule Caste, and Other Backward Caste people. We utilize survey data from 4,994 households within 500 villages living in forested regions collected in 2018 and a satellite-derived measure of forest availability to investigate the household and ecological determinants of LPG adoption and the timing of this adoption (pre- or post-2016). In addition, we document patterns of firewood collection and evaluate the extent to which households acquiring LPG change these activities. The probability of cooking with LPG was lowest for marginalized social groups. We observe that households recently adopting LPG, likely through PMUY, are poorer, more socially marginalized, less educated, and have more forest available nearby than their early-adopter counterparts. While 90% of LPG-using households continue to use firewood, households that have owned LPG for more years report spending less time collecting firewood, indicating a waning reliance on firewood over time. Policies targeting communities with marginalized social groups living near forests can further accelerate LPG adoption and displace firewood use. Despite overall growth in LPG use, disparities in access to clean cooking fuels remain between socioeconomic groups in India.

Clinical, Epidemiological and Experimental Approaches to Assess Adverse Health Outcomes of Indoor Biomass Smoke Exposure: Conclusions from An Indo-Swedish Workshop in Mysuru, January 2020

This report summarizes the outcome of a workshop held in Mysuru, India in January 2020 addressing the adverse health effects of exposure to biomass smoke (BMS). The aim of the workshop was to identify uncertainties and gaps in knowledge and possible methods to address them in the Mysuru study on Determinants of Health in Rural Adults (MUDHRA) cohort. Specific aims were to discuss the possibility to improve and introduce new screening methods for exposure and effect, logistic limitations and other potential obstacles, and plausible strategies to overcome these in future studies. Field visits were included in the workshop prior to discussing these issues. The workshop concluded that multi-disciplinary approaches to perform: (a) indoor and personalized exposure assessment; (b) clinical and epidemiological field studies among children, adolescents, and adults; (c) controlled exposure experiments using physiologically relevant in vitro and in vivo models to understand molecular patho-mechanisms are warranted to dissect BMS-induced adverse health effects. It was perceived that assessment of dietary exposure (like phytochemical index) may serve as an important indicator for understanding potential protective mechanisms. Well trained field teams and close collaboration with the participating hospital were identified as the key requirements to successfully carry out the study objectives.