Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming

Elevational variation in morphology and biomass allocation in carpathian snowbell Soldanella carpatica (Primulaceae)

Plants growing along wide elevation gradients in mountains experience considerable variations in environmental factors that vary across elevations. The most pronounced elevational changes are in climate conditions with characteristic decrease in air temperature with an increase in elevation. Studying intraspecific elevational variations in plant morphological traits and biomass allocation gives opportunity to understand how plants adapted to steep environmental gradients that change with elevation and how they may respond to climate changes related to global warming. In this study, phenotypic variation of an alpine plant Soldanella carpatica Vierh. (Primulaceae) was investigated on 40 sites distributed continuously across a 1,480-m elevation gradient in the Tatra Mountains, Central Europe. Mixed-effects models, by which plant traits were fitted to elevation, revealed that on most part of the gradient total leaf mass, leaf size and scape height decreased gradually with an increase in elevation, whereas dry mass investment in roots and flowers as well as individual flower mass did not vary with elevation. Unexpectedly, in the uppermost part of the elevation gradient overall plant size, including both below-and aboveground plant parts, decreased rapidly causing abrupt plant miniaturization. Despite the plant miniaturization at the highest elevations, biomass partitioning traits changed gradually across the entire species elevation range, namely, the leaf mass fraction decreased continuously, whereas the flower mass fraction and the root:shoot ratio increased steadily from the lowest to the highest elevations. Observed variations in S. carpatica phenotypes are seen as structural adjustments to environmental changes across elevations that increase chances of plant survival and reproduction at different elevations. Moreover, results of the present study agreed with the observations that populations of species from the 'Soldanella' intrageneric group adapted to alpine and subnival zones still maintain typical 'Soldanella'-like appearance, despite considerable reduction in overall plant size.

Unravelling the functional and phylogenetic dimensions of novel ecosystem assemblages

Human activities are causing taxonomic rearrangements across ecosystems that often result in the emergence of novel communities (assemblies with no historical representative). It is commonly assumed that these changes in the taxonomic makeup of ecosystems also inevitably lead to changes in other aspects of biodiversity, namely functional and phylogenetic diversity. However, this assumption is not always valid, as the changes in functional and phylogenetic composition resulting from taxonomic shifts depend on the level of redundancy in the evaluated community. Therefore, we need improved theoretical frameworks to predict when we can expect coordinated or decoupled responses among these three facets of biodiversity. To advance this understanding, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that complicate establishing a link between taxonomic rearrangements driven by human activities and the associated functional and phylogenetic changes. Here, we show that is crucial to consider the expected changes in functional and phylogenetic composition as communities are reshaped owing to human drivers of biodiversity loss to forecast the impacts of novel assemblages on ecosystem functions and the services they provide to humanity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Trophic rewilding as a restoration approach under emerging novel biosphere conditions

Rewilding is a restoration approach that aims to promote self-regulating complex ecosystems by restoring non-human ecological processes while reducing human control and pressures. Rewilding is forward-looking in that it aims to enhance functionality for biodiversity, accepting and indeed promoting the dynamic nature of ecosystems, rather than fixating on static composition or structure. Rewilding is thus especially relevant in our epoch of increasingly novel biosphere conditions, driven by strong human-induced global change. Here, we explore this hypothesis in the context of trophic rewilding - the restoration of trophic complexity mediated by wild, large-bodied animals, known as 'megafauna'. This focus reflects the strong ecological impacts of large-bodied animals, their widespread loss during the last 50,000 years and their high diversity and ubiquity in the preceding 50 million years. Restoring abundant, diverse, wild-living megafauna is expected to promote vegetation heterogeneity, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling and biotic microhabitats. These are fundamental drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem function and are likely to gain importance for maintaining a biodiverse biosphere under increasingly novel ecological conditions. Non-native megafauna species may contribute to these effects as ecological surrogates of extinct species or by promoting ecological functionality within novel assemblages. Trophic rewilding has strong upscaling potential via population growth and expansion of wild fauna. It is likely to facilitate biotic adaptation to changing climatic conditions and resilience to ecosystem collapse, and to curb some negative impacts of globalization, notably the dominance of invasive alien plants. Finally, we discuss the complexities of realizing the biodiversity benefits that trophic rewilding offers under novel biosphere conditions in a heavily populated world.

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Hybrids as mirrors of the past: genomic footprints reveal spatio-temporal dynamics and extinction risk of alpine extremophytes in the mountains of Central Asia

Hybridization is one of the key processes shaping lineage diversification, particularly in regions that experienced strong climate oscillations. The alpine biome with its rich history of glacial-interglacial cycles and complex patterns of species distribution shifts offers an excellent system to investigate the impact of gene flow on population dynamics and speciation, important issues for evolutionary biology and biodiversity conservation. In this study, we combined genomic data (DArTseq), chloroplast markers, and morphology to examine phylogenetic relationships and the permeability of species boundaries and their evolutionary outcomes among the alpine extremophilic species of Puccinellia (Poaceae) in the Pamir Mountains, a part of the Mountains of Central Asia biodiversity hotspot. We determined the occurrence of interspecific hybrids between P. himalaica and P. pamirica, which demonstrated almost symmetric ancestry from their parental species and did not show signals of introgression. According to our integrative revision, the natural hybrids between P. himalaica and P. pamirica should be classified as Puccinellia ×vachanica (pro species). Using approximate Bayesian computation for population history inference, we uncovered that P. himalaica hybridized with P. pamirica independently in multiple localities over the Holocene. Hybrids inherited the fine-scale genetic structure from their parental species, which developed these patterns earlier, during the Late Pleistocene. Hybridization had different consequences for the involved parental lineages, likely playing an important role in a continuing decline of P. himalaica in the Pamir Mountains over the Holocene. Our results show that P. himalaica should be considered a critically endangered species in the Pamir Mountains and could also be retreating across its entire range of distribution in High Mountain Asia. Using a comparative phylogeographic framework, we revealed the risk of extinction of a cold-adapted alpine species in a global biodiversity hotspot. This study highlights that genomics could unravel diversity trends under climate change and provides valuable evidence for conservation management.

Climate change triggered synchronous woody plants recruitment in the last two centuries in the treeline ecotone of the Northern Hemisphere

Climate change triggers several ecosystem responses, including woody plant encroachment. We analyse woody plant recruitment across the treeline ecotone (the forest-tundra ecotone) of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over an extended period (1801-2010) and its relation with atmospheric CO2 and air temperature. We detected a synchronous trend of woody plant recruitment across the NH, indicating a major climatic and environmental change, triggered by a combination of CO2 fertilization and air temperature changes. The drivers of woody plant recruitment changed with time: CO2 fertilization was the main driver in the period 1801-1950, while air temperature was the main driver after 1950, despite the drastic acceleration of CO2 increase in the last decades. These data support the hypothesis that we are shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. The temporal patterns of woody plant recruitment are consistent with the occurrence of the 1980 regime shift, a major change occurred in the Earth's biophysical systems. Indeed, the recruitment drop promoted by the 1960s-1980s air cooling, was followed by an intensive recruitment increase triggered by the restart of air warming in the last decades. The largest sensitivity and fastest resilience of evergreen and Pinaceae to the restart of air warming allows to hypothesize that, among the woody plant functional and taxonomic groups, they could perform the largest expansion also in future decades.

Climate-Affected Australian Tropical Montane Cloud Forest Plants: Metabolomic Profiles, Isolated Phytochemicals, and Bioactivities

The Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in northeast Queensland is home to approximately 18 percent of the nation's total vascular plant species. Over the past century, human activity and industrial development have caused global climate changes, posing a severe and irreversible danger to the entire land-based ecosystem, and the WTWHA is no exception. The current average annual temperature of WTWHA in northeast Queensland is 24 °C. However, in the coming years (by 2030), the average annual temperature increase is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.4 °C compared to the climate observed between 1986 and 2005. Looking further ahead to 2070, the anticipated temperature rise is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.2 °C, with the exact range depending on future emissions. We identified 84 plant species, endemic to tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) within the WTWHA, which are already experiencing climate change threats. Some of these plants are used in herbal medicines. This study comprehensively reviewed the metabolomics studies conducted on these 84 plant species until now toward understanding their physiological and metabolomics responses to global climate change. This review also discusses the following: (i) recent developments in plant metabolomics studies that can be applied to study and better understand the interactions of wet tropics plants with climatic stress, (ii) medicinal plants and isolated phytochemicals with structural diversity, and (iii) reported biological activities of crude extracts and isolated compounds.

Degeneration of foundation cushion species induced by ecological constraints can cause massive changes in alpine plant communities

Foundational cushion plants can re-organize community structures and sustain a prominent proportion of alpine biodiversity, but they are sensitive to climate change. The loss of cushion species can have broad consequences for associated biota. The potential plant community changes with the population dynamics of cushion plants remain, however, unclear. Using eight plant communities along a climatic and community successional gradient, we assessed cushion population dynamics, the underlying ecological constraints and hence associated plant community changes in alpine communities dominated by the foundational cushion plant Arenaria polytrichoides. The population dynamics of Arenaria are attributed to ecological constraints at a series of life history stages. Reproductive functions are constrained by increasing associated beneficiary plants; subsequent seedling establishment is constrained by temperature, water and light availability, extreme climate events, and interspecific competition; strong competitive exclusion may accelerate mortality and degeneration of cushion populations. Along with cushion dynamics, species composition, abundance and community structure gradually change. Once cushion plants completely degenerate, previously cushion-dominated communities shift to relatively stable communities that are overwhelmingly dominated by sedges. Climate warming may accelerate the degeneration process of A. polytrichoides. Degeneration of this foundational cushion plant will possibly induce massive changes in alpine plant communities and hence ecosystem functions in alpine ecosystems. The assessment of the population dynamics of foundation species is critical for an effective conservation of alpine biodiversity.

Extinction drives recent thermophilization but does not trigger homogenization in forest understorey

The ongoing climate change is triggering plant community thermophilization. This selection process ought to shift community composition towards species adapted to warmer climates but may also lead to biotic homogenization. The link between thermophilization and homogenization and the community dynamics that drive them (colonization and extinction) remain unknown but is critical for understanding community responses under rapid environmental change. We used 14,167 pairs of plots to study shifts in plant community during 10 years of rising temperature in 80 forest ecoregions of France. We computed community mean thermal optimum (thermophilization) and Δβ-diversity (homogenization) for each ecoregion and partitioned these changes into extinction and colonization dynamics of cold- and warm-adapted species. Forest understorey communities thermophilized on average by 0.12 °C per decade and up to 0.20 °C per decade in warm ecoregions. This rate was entirely driven by extinction dynamics. Extinction of cold-adapted species was a driver of homogenization but it was compensated for by the colonization of rare species and the extinction of common species, resulting in the absence of an apparent homogenization trend. Here we show a dieback of present cold-adapted species rather than an adaptation of communities via the arrival of warm-adapted species, with a mutually cancelling effect on β-diversity. These results suggest that a future loss of biodiversity and delayed biotic homogenization should be considered.

An investigation into the potential for upward range expansion in high-montane species on the roof of the world

Climate warming is occurring in high-mountain areas at a faster rate than the global average. To escape the increasing temperatures, alpine species may shift in distribution upwards, threatening cold-adapted nival plant specialists. However, little is known about the success of seedling emergence and establishment at high altitudes outside the current range, particularly in the highest mountain areas of the Himalayas. We selected four native alpine species occurring around 4000 m a.s.l. and sowed seeds at the natural growing site (GS), at a high elevation site (HS; 5000 m a.s.l.) and at high elevation with soil from the growing site (HS-S) in the Khumbu Valley, north-eastern Nepal. We monitored seedling emergence and establishment for two consecutive years. Seedling emergence and establishment varied between species. Emergence was similar between GS and HS and improved at HS-S. Establishment was low at high elevations with all but one species having high mortality after winter. Seedling emergence of low elevation plants is possible at high elevations in the Everest region, indicating species may be able to shift their distribution range upwards. However, successful establishment may be limited by the soil and high winter mortality at high elevations, although not in all species. Climate warming will potentially lead to upward migration of some Himalayan plant species, leading to altered community composition in high-mountain areas.

Modeling future changes in potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau by incorporating snow depth and snow phenology

Although snow cover is a major factor affecting vegetation in alpine regions, it is rarely introduced into ecological niche models in alpine regions. Snow phenology over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was estimated using a daily passive microwave snow depth dataset, and future datasets of snow depth and snow phenology were projected based on their sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, the potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the TP were predicted under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) by using a model with incorporated snow variables, and the driving factors of habitat change were analyzed. The results showed that the inclusion of snow variables improved the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model, particularly in alpine meadow habitats. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitats of steppes, meadows, shrubs, deserts, and coniferous forests on the TP will migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes, in which the potential habitats of alpine desert will recede (replaced by alpine steppe), and the potential habitats of other four vegetation types will expand. The random forest importance analysis showed that the recession of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in average annual temperature, and the expansion of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in precipitation. With the gradual increase in temperature and precipitation in the future, the snow depth and snow cover duration days will decrease, which may further lead to the transition of vegetation types from cold-adapted to warm-adapted on the TP. Our study highlights both that the prediction accuracy of alpine vegetation was improved by incorporating snow variables into the species distribution model, and that a changing climate will likely have a powerful influence on the distribution of alpine vegetation across the TP.

Pediatric asthma and altitude: a complex interplay between different environmental factors

Asthma is one of the most common non-communicable diseases, and its prevalence and morbidity are influenced by a wide array of factors that are only partially understood. In addition to individual predisposition linked to genetic background and early life infections, environmental factors are crucial in determining the impact of asthma both on an individual patient and on a population level.Several studies have examined the role of the environment where asthmatic subjects live in the pathogenesis of asthma. This review aims to investigate the differences in the prevalence and characteristics of asthma between the pediatric population residing at higher altitudes and children living at lower altitudes, trying to define factors that potentially determine such differences. For this purpose, we reviewed articles from the literature concerning observational studies assessing the prevalence of pediatric asthma in these populations and its characteristics, such as spirometric and laboratory parameters and associated sensitization to aeroallergens.Despite the heterogeneity of the environments examined, the hypothesis of a beneficial effect of residing at a higher altitude on the prevalence of pediatric asthma could be confirmed, as well as a good profile on airway inflammation in asthmatic children. However, the possibility of a higher hospitalization risk for asthma in children living at higher altitudes was demonstrated. Moreover, a positive association between residing at a higher altitude and sensitization to pollens and between lower altitude and sensitization to house dust mites could be confirmed in some pediatric patients, even if the results are not homogeneous, probably due to the different geographical and climatic regions considered. Nonetheless, further studies, e.g., extensive and international works, need to be conducted to better understand the complex interplay between different environmental factors, such as altitude, and the pathogenesis of asthma and how its prevalence and characteristics could vary due to climate change.

Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Simulium qinghaiense (Diptera: Simuliidae) in the Huangshui River Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Using Four Ecological Niche Models and Optimized Approaches

The Huangshui River, a vital tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River within the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is home to the endemic black fly species S. qinghaiense. In this study, we conducted a systematic survey of the distribution of the species in the Huangshui River basin, revealing its predominant presence along the river's main stem. Based on four ecological niche models-MaxEnt with parameter optimization; GARP; BIOCLIM; and DOMAIN-we conduct a comparative analysis; evaluating the accuracy of AUC and Kappa values. Our findings indicate that optimizing parameters significantly improves the MaxEnt model's predictive accuracy by reducing complexity and overfitting. Furthermore, all four models exhibit higher accuracy compared to a random model, with MaxEnt demonstrating the highest AUC and Kappa values (0.9756 and 0.8118, respectively), showcasing significant superiority over the other models (p < 0.05). Evaluation of predictions from the four models elucidates that potential areas of S. qinghaiense in the Huangshui River basin are primarily concentrated in the central and southern areas, with precipitation exerting a predominant influence. Building upon these results, we utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast changes in suitable areas and distribution centers during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Mid-Holocene (MH), and future periods under three climate scenarios. The results indicate significantly smaller suitable areas during LIG and MH compared to the present, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward from the Qilian Mountains to the central part of the basin. In the future, suitable areas under different climate scenarios are expected to contract, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward. These findings provide important theoretical references for monitoring, early warning, and control measures for S. qinghaiense in the region, contributing to ecological health assessment.

Vertical distribution characteristics of soil organic carbon and vegetation types under different elevation gradients in Cangshan, Dali

Background

The Cangshan National Nature Reserve of Dali City was adopted as the research object to clarify the vertical distribution characteristics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and vegetation types at different elevations in western Yunnan.

Methods

The contents of SOC, light fraction organic carbon (LFOC), heavy fraction organic carbon (HFOC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) in the 0-30 cm soil layer at different elevations (2,400, 2,600, 2,800, 3,000, 3,200, 3,400, and 3,600 m) were determined, and the above-ground vegetation types at different elevations were investigated.

Results

Results showed that the SOC content was the highest in 0-20 cm surface soil and gradually decreased with the deepening of the soil layer. It increased then decreased with the increase in elevation, and it peaked at 3,000 m. The LFOC content was between 1.28 and 7.3515 g kg-1. It exhibited a decreasing trend and little change in profile distribution. The HFOC content ranged between 12.9727 and 23.3708 g kg-1; it increased then decreased with the increase in profile depth. The WSOC content was between 235.5783 and 392.3925 mg kg-1, and the response sensitivity to elevation change was weak. With the increase in elevation, WSOC/SOC and LFOC/SOC showed a similar trend, whereas HFOC presented an opposite trend. This observation indicates that the active organic carbon content at 3,600 m was lower than that at 2,400 m, and the middle elevation was conducive to the storage of active organic carbon. Meanwhile, the physical and chemical properties of soil affected the distribution of organic carbon to a certain extent. The vegetation type survey showed that the above-ground dominant species within 2,400-2,800 m were Pinus yunnanensis and Pinus armandii. Many evergreen and mixed coniferous broadleaf forests were distributed from 3,000 m to 3,200 m. Species of Abies delavayi were mainly distributed from 3,400 m to 3,600 m. This research serves as a reference for the study of forest soil carbon stability in high-elevation areas and plays an important role in formulating reasonable land use management policies, protecting forest soil, reducing organic carbon loss, and investigating the carbon sequestration stability of forest ecosystems.

Vulnerability of protected areas to future climate change, land use modification, and biological invasions in China

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.

Community metabarcoding reveals the relative role of environmental filtering and spatial processes in metacommunity dynamics of soil microarthropods across a mosaic of montane forests

Disentangling the relative role of environmental filtering and spatial processes in driving metacommunity structure across mountainous regions remains challenging, as the way we quantify spatial connectivity in topographically and environmentally heterogeneous landscapes can influence our perception of which process predominates. More empirical data sets are required to account for taxon- and context-dependency, but relevant research in understudied areas is often compromised by the taxonomic impediment. Here we used haplotype-level community DNA metabarcoding, enabled by stringent filtering of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), to characterize metacommunity structure of soil microarthropod assemblages across a mosaic of five forest habitats on the Troodos mountain range in Cyprus. We found similar β diversity patterns at ASV and species (OTU, operational taxonomic unit) levels, which pointed to a primary role of habitat filtering resulting in the existence of largely distinct metacommunities linked to different forest types. Within-habitat turnover was correlated to topoclimatic heterogeneity, again emphasizing the role of environmental filtering. However, when integrating landscape matrix information for the highly fragmented Quercus alnifolia habitat, we also detected a major role of spatial isolation determined by patch connectivity, indicating that stochastic and niche-based processes synergistically govern community assembly. Alpha diversity patterns varied between ASV and OTU levels, with OTU richness decreasing with elevation and ASV richness following a longitudinal gradient, potentially reflecting a decline of genetic diversity eastwards due to historical pressures. Our study demonstrates the utility of haplotype-level community metabarcoding for characterizing metacommunity structure of complex assemblages and improving our understanding of biodiversity dynamics across mountainous landscapes worldwide.

Pollen DNA metabarcoding reveals cryptic diversity and high spatial turnover in alpine plant-pollinator networks

Alpine plant-pollinator communities play an important role in the functioning of alpine ecosystems, which are highly threatened by climate change. However, we still have a poor understanding of how environmental factors and spatiotemporal variability shape these communities. Here, we investigate what drives structure and beta diversity in a plant-pollinator metacommunity from the Australian alpine region using two approaches: pollen DNA metabarcoding (MB) and observations. Individual pollinators often carry pollen from multiple plant species, and therefore we expected MB to reveal a more diverse and complex network structure. We used two gene regions (ITS2 and trnL) to identify plant species present in the pollen loads of 154 insect pollinator specimens from three alpine habitats and construct MB networks, and compared them to networks based on observations alone. We compared species and interaction turnover across space for both types of networks, and evaluated their differences for plant phylogenetic diversity and beta diversity. We found significant structural differences between the two types of networks; notably, MB networks were much less specialized but more diverse than observation networks, with MB detecting many cryptic plant species. Both approaches revealed that alpine pollination networks are very generalized, but we estimated a high spatial turnover of plant species (0.79) and interaction rewiring (0.6) as well as high plant phylogenetic diversity (0.68) driven by habitat differences based on the larger diversity of plant species and species interactions detected with MB. Overall, our findings show that habitat and microclimatic heterogeneity drives diversity and fine-scale spatial turnover of alpine plant-pollinator networks.

Impacts of landscape patterns on plant species diversity at a global scale

Landscape patterns are important drivers of biodiversity. Owing to differences in vegetation types, sampling methods, diversity measures, spatial scales, and landscape levels, the impact of landscape patterns on biodiversity remains widely debated. Using a global standardized plant community database and land use and land cover maps at 30-m resolution, for the period 1990-2017, we calculated plant species α- and β-diversity, and landscape metrics at patch- and landscape-levels, and discerned the direct and indirect impacts of landscape patterns on plant species diversity based on environmental factors, namely climate, spatial features, and human disturbance. We found that landscape patterns exhibited the main indirect effects, whereas climate factors exhibited dominant direct effects on plant α-diversity via the direct effects of patch patterns and functional traits. With respect to β-diversity, landscape-level patterns exerted more direct than indirect effects. These effects are strongly dependent on scale. Landscape- and patch-level patterns had opposite effects on plant diversity, depending on their composition and spatial structure, demonstrating that their effects could be mediated by one another. The adaptation of plants to landscape patterns is mainly through variations in leaf area, plant height, specific leaf area, stem density, seed biomass, and other seed-dispersal traits, which vary across vegetation types. Our findings highlight the importance of functional traits and diversity in understanding the mechanism by which landscape patterns influence plant species diversity; accordingly, we recommend balancing the spatial structure of patch- and landscape-level patterns to enhance variation in functional traits, and, ultimately, to maintain global plant diversity.

The Perspective of Arctic-Alpine Species in Southernmost Localities: The Example of Kalmia procumbens in the Pyrenees and Carpathians

High-mountain and arctic plants are considered especially sensitive to climate change because of their close adaptation to the cold environment. Kalmia procumbens, a typical arctic-alpine species, reaches southernmost European localities in the Pyrenees and Carpathians. The aim of this study was the assessment and comparison of the current potential niche areas of K. procumbens in the Pyrenees and Carpathians and their possible reduction due to climate change, depending on the scenario. The realized niches of K. procumbens in the Pyrenees are compact, while those in the Carpathians are dispersed. In both mountain chains, the species occurs in the alpine and subalpine vegetation belts, going down to elevations of about 1500-1600 m, while the most elevated localities in the Pyrenees are at ca. 3000 m, about 500 m higher than those in the Carpathians. The localities of K. procumbens in the Carpathians have a more continental climate than those in the Pyrenees, with lower precipitation and temperatures but higher seasonality of temperature and precipitation. The species covered a larger area of geographic range during the Last Glacial Maximum, but its geographic range was reduced during the mid-Holocene. Due to climate warming, a reduction in the potential area of occurrence could be expected in 2100; this reduction is expected to be strong in the Carpathians and moderate in the Pyrenees.

Using photogrammetry to create virtual permanent plots in rare and threatened plant communities

Premise

Many plant communities across the world are undergoing changes due to climate change, human disturbance, and other threats. These community-level changes are often tracked with the use of permanent vegetative plots, but this approach is not always feasible. As an alternative, we propose using photogrammetry, specifically photograph-based digital surface models (DSMs) developed using structure-from-motion, to establish virtual permanent plots in plant communities where the use of permanent structures may not be possible.

Methods

In 2021 and 2022, we took iPhone photographs to record species presence in 1-m2 plots distributed across alpine communities in the northeastern United States. We then compared field estimates of percent coverage with coverage estimated using DSMs.

Results

Digital surface models can provide effective, minimally invasive, and permanent records of plant species presence and percent coverage, while also allowing managers to mark survey locations virtually for long-term monitoring. We found that percent coverage estimated from DSMs did not differ from field estimates for most species and substrates.

Discussion

In order to continue surveying efforts in areas where permanent structures or other surveying methods are not feasible, photogrammetry and structure-from-motion methods can provide a low-cost approach that allows agencies to accurately survey and record sensitive plant communities through time.

Use climatic space-for-time substitutions with care: Not only climate, but also local environment affect performance of the key forest species bilberry along elevation gradient

An urgent aim of ecology is to understand how key species relate to climatic and environmental variation, to better predict their prospects under future climate change. The abundant dwarf shrub bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) has caught particular interest due to its uphill expansion into alpine areas. Species' performance under changing climate has been widely studied using the climatic space-for-time approach along elevation gradients, but potentially confounding, local environmental variables that vary along elevation gradients have rarely been considered. In this study, performed in 10 sites along an elevation gradient (200-875 m) in W Norway, we recorded species composition and bilberry performance, both vegetative (ramet size and cover) and reproductive (berry and seed production) properties, over one to 4 years. We disentangled effects of local environmental variables and between-year, climatic variation (precipitation and temperature), and identified shared and unique contributions of these variables by variation partitioning. We found bilberry ramet size, cover and berry production to peak at intermediate elevations, whereas seed production increased upwards. The peaks were less pronounced in extreme (dry or cold) summers than in normal summers. Local environmental variables explained much variation in ramet size and cover, less in berry production, and showed no relation to seed production. Climatic variables explained more of the variation in berry and seed production than in ramet size and cover, with temperature relating to vegetative performance, and precipitation to reproductive performance. Bilberry's clonal growth and effective reproduction probably explain why the species persists in the forest and at the same time invades alpine areas. Our findings raise concerns of the appropriateness of the climatic space-for-time approach. We recommend including both climatic and local environmental variables in studies of variation along elevation gradients and conclude that variation partitioning can be a useful supplement to other methods for analysing variation in plant performance.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits

Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.

Intraspecific trait variation and changing life-history strategies explain host community disease risk along a temperature gradient

Predicting how climate change will affect disease risk is complicated by the fact that changing environmental conditions can affect disease through direct and indirect effects. Species with fast-paced life-history strategies often amplify disease, and changing climate can modify life-history composition of communities thereby altering disease risk. However, individuals within a species can also respond to changing conditions with intraspecific trait variation. To test the effect of temperature, as well as inter- and intraspecifc trait variation on community disease risk, we measured foliar disease and specific leaf area (SLA; a proxy for life-history strategy) on more than 2500 host (plant) individuals in 199 communities across a 1101 m elevational gradient in southeastern Switzerland. There was no direct effect of increasing temperature on disease. Instead, increasing temperature favoured species with higher SLA, fast-paced life-history strategies. This effect was balanced by intraspecific variation in SLA: on average, host individuals expressed lower SLA with increasing temperature, and this effect was stronger among species adapted to warmer temperatures and lower latitudes. These results demonstrate how impacts of changing temperature on disease may depend on how temperature combines and interacts with host community structure while indicating that evolutionary constraints can determine how these effects are manifested under global change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Stable plant community biomass production despite species richness collapse under simulated extreme climate in the European Alps

Direct observation of biodiversity loss in response to abrupt climate change can resolve fundamental questions about temporal community dynamics and clarify the controversial debate of biodiversity loss impacts on ecosystem functioning. We tracked local plant species loss and the corresponding change of aboveground biomass of native and non-native species by actively pushing mountain grassland ecosystems beyond their ecological thresholds in a five-year, multisite translocation experiment across the European Alps. Our results show that species loss (ranging from a 73 % to 94 % reduction in species richness) caused by simulated climate extremes (strong warming interacting with drought) did not decrease community biomass. Even without non-native species colonization, the community biomass of native species remained stable during native species richness collapse. Switching our research focus from local extinction in the face of climate change towards the beneficial impacts of persisting native species (in addition to novel plant-plant interactions) might yield insights on transformative opportunities for boosting climate resilience.

Changes in the flora of Lobbia Alta, a peak of the Adamello-Presanella Alps (Trento, Italy) between 1935 and 2021

Global warming is causing an enrichment of summit flora worldwide. This article presents the case of a peak in the southeastern Alps (Lobbia Alta, 3,196 m a.s.l., Adamello, Trento, Italy), for which a complete list of tracheophytes dating back to 1935 was available. As this peak is well delimited by glaciers and vertical cliffs, it has been possible to faithfully repeat this floristic inventory. We made three surveys, in 1991, 2006 and 2021, exploring the whole area. It resulted that in 86 years the species present on this peak have tripled, increasing from 17 to 51, with an acceleration in recent years. The biological forms have increased from two to six. The average temperature and the nutritional indexes according to Ellenberg have increased as well. We found that as many as six species reach their elevation record in the Alps on the Lobbia Alta, suggesting that this area is particularly prone to species ascension. Particularly interesting is the discovery of a 35 cm-tall specimen of Larix decidua at 3,130 m a.s.l., which seems to be the elevational record of the species.

Rapid upwards spread of non-native plants in mountains across continents

High-elevation ecosystems are among the few ecosystems worldwide that are not yet heavily invaded by non-native plants. This is expected to change as species expand their range limits upwards to fill their climatic niches and respond to ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. Yet, whether and how quickly these changes are happening has only been assessed in a few isolated cases. Starting in 2007, we conducted repeated surveys of non-native plant distributions along mountain roads in 11 regions from 5 continents. We show that over a 5- to 10-year period, the number of non-native species increased on average by approximately 16% per decade across regions. The direction and magnitude of upper range limit shifts depended on elevation across all regions. Supported by a null-model approach accounting for range changes expected by chance alone, we found greater than expected upward shifts at lower/mid elevations in at least seven regions. After accounting for elevation dependence, significant average upward shifts were detected in a further three regions (revealing evidence for upward shifts in 10 of 11 regions). Together, our results show that mountain environments are becoming increasingly exposed to biological invasions, emphasizing the need to monitor and prevent potential biosecurity issues emerging in high-elevation ecosystems.

Climate-induced range shifts drive adaptive response via spatio-temporal sieving of alleles

Quaternary climate fluctuations drove many species to shift their geographic ranges, in turn shaping their genetic structures. Recently, it has been argued that adaptation may have accompanied species range shifts via the "sieving" of genotypes during colonisation and establishment. However, this has not been directly demonstrated, and knowledge remains limited on how different evolutionary forces, which are typically investigated separately, interacted to jointly mediate species responses to past climatic change. Here, through whole-genome re-sequencing of over 1200 individuals of the carnation Dianthus sylvestris coupled with integrated population genomic and gene-environment models, we reconstruct the past neutral and adaptive landscape of this species as it was shaped by the Quaternary glacial cycles. We show that adaptive responses emerged concomitantly with the post-glacial range shifts and expansions of this species in the last 20 thousand years. This was due to the heterogenous sieving of adaptive alleles across space and time, as populations expanded out of restrictive glacial refugia into the broader and more heterogeneous range of habitats available in the present-day inter-glacial. Our findings reveal a tightly-linked interplay of migration and adaptation under past climate-induced range shifts, which we show is key to understanding the spatial patterns of adaptive variation we see in species today.

Changes in Community Composition and Functional Traits of Bumblebees in an Alpine Ecosystem Relate to Climate Warming

Climate warming has been observed as the main cause of changes in diversity, community composition, and spatial distribution of different plant and invertebrate species. Due to even stronger warming compared to the global mean, bumblebees in alpine ecosystems are particularly exposed to these changes. To investigate the effects of climate warming, we sampled bumblebees along an elevational gradient, compared the records with data from 1935 and 1936, and related our results to climate models. We found that bumblebee community composition differed significantly between sampling periods and that increasing temperatures in spring were the most plausible factor explaining these range shifts. In addition, species diversity estimates were significantly lower compared to historical records. The number of socio-parasitic species was significantly higher in the historical communities, while recent communities showed increases in climate generalists and forest species at lower elevations. Nevertheless, no significant changes in community-weighted means of a species temperature index (STI) or the number of cold-adapted species were detected, likely due to the historical data resolution. We conclude that the composition and functionality of bumblebee communities in the study area have been significantly affected by climate warming, with changes in land use and vegetation cover likely playing an additional important role.

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Drivers of systematic bias in alien plant species distribution data

Among the main challenges in modelling biological invasion is a lack of valid data on the absence of invasive species. Absence data are important for assessing the reliability of models, but multiple surveys at a location are needed. In practice, omission errors are more frequent than commission errors. We therefore quantified how eliminating potentially biased areas from invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) affected the models' performance, and we assessed how the distribution of biased areas correlated with environmental factors. We hypothesized that for neophytes, the distribution of biased areas corresponds to specific land relief and/or particular landscape and land use, but not the density of roads and urbanized areas. The data on neophytes were obtained from a distribution atlas covering approximately 31,000 km² in Central Europe overlaid with a 2 × 2 km square grid. One hundred fifty-three species were used for modelling neophyte richness, and negative residuals from the model were assumed to indicate biased squares. Twenty invasive species were used as an independent dataset for testing the effect of excluding the biased squares on iSDM performance. The exclusion of biased squares increased the iSDM performance from an area under the curve value of 0.73 to 0.78. The best results were obtained by excluding 30 % of the squares from the original dataset. The presence of damp sites explained the distribution of biased squares; the density of roads and urbanized areas had no impact. The applied method allows distinguishing biased, plausibly undersampled squares in a species distribution atlas, the exclusion of which significantly improves iSDM performance. The results suggest that the commonly observed low sampling effort in areas distant from communication routes and urbanized areas was not crucial in modelling invasive species distribution, which can be related to smaller neophyte richness in remote areas resulting from low propagule pressure.

Vessels in a Rhododendron ferrugineum (L.) population do not trace temperature anymore at the alpine shrubline

INTRODUCTION

Mean xylem vessel or tracheid area have been demonstrated to represent powerful proxies to better understand the response of woody plants to changing climatic conditions. Yet, to date, this approach has rarely been applied to shrubs.

METHODS

Here, we developed a multidecadal, annually-resolved chronology of vessel sizes for Rhododendron ferrugineum shrubs sampled at the upper shrubline (2,550 m asl) on a north-facing, inactive rock glacier in the Italian Alps.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Over the 1960-1989 period, the vessel size chronology shares 64% of common variability with summer temperatures, thus confirming the potential of wood anatomical analyses on shrubs to track past climate variability in alpine environments above treeline. The strong winter precipitation signal recorded in the chronology also confirms the negative effect of long-lasting snow cover on shrub growth. By contrast, the loss of a climate-growth relation signal since the 1990s for both temperature and precipitation, significantly stronger than the one found in radial growth, contrasts with findings in other QWA studies according to which stable correlations between series of anatomical features and climatic parameters have been reported. In a context of global warming, we hypothesize that this signal loss might be induced by winter droughts, late frost, or complex relations between increasing air temperatures, permafrost degradation, and its impacts on shrub growth. We recommend future studies to validate these hypotheses on monitored rock glaciers.

Alpine butterflies want to fly high: Species and communities shift upwards faster than their host plants

Despite sometimes strong codependencies of insect herbivores and plants, the responses of individual taxa to accelerating climate change are typically studied in isolation. For this reason, biotic interactions that potentially limit species in tracking their preferred climatic niches are ignored. Here, we chose butterflies as a prominent representative of herbivorous insects to investigate the impacts of temperature changes and their larval host plant distributions along a 1.4-km elevational gradient in the German Alps. Following a sampling protocol of 2009, we revisited 33 grassland plots in 2019 over an entire growing season. We quantified changes in butterfly abundance and richness by repeated transect walks on each plot and disentangled the direct and indirect effects of locally assessed temperature, site management, and larval and adult food resource availability on these patterns. Additionally, we determined elevational range shifts of butterflies and host plants at both the community and species level. Comparing the two sampled years (2009 and 2019), we found a severe decline in butterfly abundance and a clear upward shift of butterflies along the elevational gradient. We detected shifts in the peak of species richness, community composition, and at the species level, whereby mountainous species shifted particularly strongly. In contrast, host plants showed barely any change, neither in connection with species richness nor individual species shifts. Further, temperature and host plant richness were the main drivers of butterfly richness, with change in temperature best explaining the change in richness over time. We concluded that host plants were not yet hindering butterfly species and communities from shifting upwards. However, the mismatch between butterfly and host plant shifts might become a problem for this very close plant-herbivore relationship, especially toward higher elevations, if butterflies fail to adapt to new host plants. Further, our results support the value of conserving traditional extensive pasture use as a promoter of host plant and, hence, butterfly richness.

Scientists' warning of threats to mountains

Mountains are an essential component of the global life-support system. They are characterized by a rugged, heterogenous landscape with rapidly changing environmental conditions providing myriad ecological niches over relatively small spatial scales. Although montane species are well adapted to life at extremes, they are highly vulnerable to human derived ecosystem threats. Here we build on the manifesto 'World Scientists' Warning to Humanity', issued by the Alliance of World Scientists, to outline the major threats to mountain ecosystems. We highlight climate change as the greatest threat to mountain ecosystems, which are more impacted than their lowland counterparts. We further discuss the cascade of "knock-on" effects of climate change such as increased UV radiation, altered hydrological cycles, and altered pollution profiles; highlighting the biological and socio-economic consequences. Finally, we present how intensified use of mountains leads to overexploitation and abstraction of water, driving changes in carbon stock, reducing biodiversity, and impacting ecosystem functioning. These perturbations can provide opportunities for invasive species, parasites and pathogens to colonize these fragile habitats, driving further changes and losses of micro- and macro-biodiversity, as well further impacting ecosystem services. Ultimately, imbalances in the normal functioning of mountain ecosystems will lead to changes in vital biological, biochemical, and chemical processes, critically reducing ecosystem health with widespread repercussions for animal and human wellbeing. Developing tools in species/habitat conservation and future restoration is therefore essential if we are to effectively mitigate against the declining health of mountains.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece)

Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park is a floristic diversity and endemism hotspot in Greece and one of the main areas where Greek endemic taxa, preliminary assessed as critically endangered and threatened under the IUCN Criteria A and B, are mainly concentrated. The climate and land-cover change impacts on rare and endemic species distributions is more prominent in regional biodiversity hotspots. The main aims of the current study were: (a) to investigate how climate and land-cover change may alter the distribution of four single mountain endemics and three very rare Peloponnesian endemic taxa of the National Park via a species distribution modelling approach, and (b) to estimate the current and future extinction risk of the aforementioned taxa based on the IUCN Criteria A and B, in order to investigate the need for designing an effective plant micro-reserve network and to support decision making on spatial planning efforts and conservation research for a sustainable, integrated management. Most of the taxa analyzed are expected to continue to be considered as critically endangered based on both Criteria A and B under all land-cover/land-use scenarios, GCM/RCP and time-period combinations, while two, namely Alchemilla aroanica and Silene conglomeratica, are projected to become extinct in most future climate change scenarios. When land-cover/land-use data were included in the analyses, these negative effects were less pronounced. However, Silene conglomeratica, the rarest mountain endemic found in the study area, is still expected to face substantial range decline. Our results highlight the urgent need for the establishment of micro-reserves for these taxa.

Negative impacts of human disturbances on the seed bank of subalpine forests are offset by climatic factors

Precipitation and temperature in the subalpine region have increased dramatically in recent decades due to global warming, and human disturbances have continued to impact the vegetation in the region. Seed bank plays an important role in population recovery, but there are few studies on the synergistic effects of human disturbances and climate change on seed bank. We analyzed the synergistic effects of human disturbances and climate change on seed bank samples from 20 sites in the subalpine coniferous forest region using grazing and logging as the disturbance intensity gradient and precipitation and temperature as climate variables. The species diversity of aboveground vegetation all changed significantly (p < 0.05) with precipitation, temperature and disturbance level, while the seed bank richness and density did not. Furthermore, the species composition of the seed bank varied significantly less than that of the aboveground vegetation at different levels of disturbance (p < 0.001). Thus, seed bank showed a strong buffering capacity against the risk of local extinction caused by environmental changes that shift the species composition and diversity of aboveground vegetation. In addition, soil and litter are important influences controlling seed bank density in subalpine forests, and the results of structural equation modelling suggest that both disturbance and climate change can indirectly regulate the seed bank by changing the physicochemical properties of soil and litter. We conclude that increases in precipitation and temperature driven by climate change can buffer the negative effects of disturbances on the seed bank.

The fall of the summer truffle: Recurring hot, dry summers result in declining fruitbody production of Tuber aestivum in Central Europe

Global warming is pushing populations outside their range of physiological tolerance. According to the environmental envelope framework, the most vulnerable populations occur near the climatic edge of their species' distributions. In contrast, populations from the climatic center of the species range should be relatively buffered against climate warming. We tested this latter prediction using a combination of linear mixed effects and machine learning algorithms on an extensive, citizen-scientist generated dataset on the fruitbody productivity of the Burgundy (aka summer) truffle (Tuber aestivum Vittad.), a keystone, ectomycorrhizal tree-symbiont occurring on a wide range of temperate climates. T. aestivum's fruitbody productivity was monitored at 3-week resolution over up to 8 continuous years at 20 sites distributed in the climatic center of its European distribution in southwest Germany and Switzerland. We found that T. aestivum fruitbody production is more sensitive to summer drought than would be expected from the breadth of its species' climatic niche. The monitored populations occurring nearly 5°C colder than the edge of their species' climatic distribution. However, interannual fruitbody productivity (truffle mass year^-1 ) fell by a median loss of 22% for every 1°C increase in summer temperature over a site's 30-year mean. Among the most productive monitored populations, the temperature sensitivity was even higher, with single summer temperature anomalies of 3°C sufficient to stop fruitbody production altogether. Interannual truffle productivity was also related to the phenology of host trees, with ~22 g less truffle mass for each 1-day reduction in the length of the tree growing season. Increasing summer drought extremes are therefore likely to reduce fruiting among summer truffle populations throughout Central Europe. Our results suggest that European T. aestivum may be a mosaic of vulnerable populations, sensitive to climate-driven declines at lower thresholds than implied by its species distribution model.

The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain

Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. Moehringia fontqueri is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects, here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible species' range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The species' current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic, satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The results showed the lowest reproductive success at the lowest altitudes, and vice versa at the highest altitudes. Habitat suitability decreased by 80% from current conditions to the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5). The lowest subpopulations were identified as the most vulnerable to climate change effects while the highest ones were the nearest to future suitable habitats. Our simultaneous assessment of reproductive success and habitat suitability aims to serve as a model to guide conservation, management and climate change mitigation strategies through adaptive management to safeguard the persistence of the maximum genetic pool of Mediterranean high-mountain plants threatened by climate change.

Potential climatic and elevational range shifts in the Italian narrow endemic Bellevalia webbiana (Asparagaceae) under climate change scenarios

The Webb’s hyacinth (Bellevalia webbiana Parl., Asparagaceae) is an Italian narrow endemic species, listed as Endangered (EN A2c) in the IUCN Global Red List of Threatened Species. The range of this bulbous perennial herb is restricted to two disjunct areas of Central Italy, separated by the mountain ridge of Northern Apennine. To evaluate the impact of climate change on this species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) to predict future potential distribution under different scenarios, through Maximum entropy algorithm. The estimated potential distribution highlights the vulnerability of Webb’s hyacinth to the effects of climate change. The current potential Area Of Occupancy (AOO) (992 2×2 km cells) is forecast to dramatically decrease in the range 2041–2100, under the scenarios SSP3-7.0 (2070 = –249, 2100 = –682) and SSP5-8.5 (2070 = –372, 2100 = –948). In all future scenarios, the predicted potential distribution shifts towards higher elevations, located in the two main areas in which the species currently occurs. This could imply a loss of the current genetic differentiation documented at the population level. To overcome these problems, in addition to assisted colonization, an ex situ conservation programme should be planned.

High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant diversity is associated with human land use and climate change

The European Alps are highly rich in species, but their future may be threatened by ongoing changes in human land use and climate. Here, we reconstructed vegetation, temperature, human impact and livestock over the past ~12,000 years from Lake Sulsseewli, based on sedimentary ancient plant and mammal DNA, pollen, spores, chironomids, and microcharcoal. We assembled a highly-complete local DNA reference library (PhyloAlps, 3923 plant taxa), and used this to obtain an exceptionally rich sedaDNA record of 366 plant taxa. Vegetation mainly responded to climate during the early Holocene, while human activity had an additional influence on vegetation from 6 ka onwards. Land-use shifted from episodic grazing during the Neolithic and Bronze Age to agropastoralism in the Middle Ages. Associated human deforestation allowed the coexistence of plant species typically found at different elevational belts, leading to levels of plant richness that characterise the current high diversity of this region. Our findings indicate a positive association between low intensity agropastoral activities and precipitation with the maintenance of the unique subalpine and alpine plant diversity of the European Alps.

Intermediate snowpack melt-out dates guarantee the highest seasonal grasslands greening in the Pyrenees

In mountain areas, the phenology and productivity of grassland are closely related to snow dynamics. However, the influence that snow melt timing has on grassland growing still needs further attention for a full understanding, particularly at high spatial resolution. Aiming to reduce this knowledge gap, this work exploits 1 m resolution snow depth and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index observations acquired with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle at a sub-alpine site in the Pyrenees. During two snow seasons (2019-2020 and 2020-2021), 14 NDVI and 17 snow depth distributions were acquired over 48 ha. Despite the snow dynamics being different in the two seasons, the response of grasslands greening to snow melt-out exhibited a very similar pattern in both. The NDVI temporal evolution in areas with distinct melt-out dates reveals that sectors where the melt-out date occurs in late April or early May (optimum melt-out) reach the maximum vegetation productivity. Zones with an earlier or a later melt-out rarely reach peak NDVI values. The results obtained in this study area, suggest that knowledge about snow depth distribution is not needed to understand NDVI grassland dynamics. The analysis did not reveal a clear link between the spatial variability in snow duration and the diversity and richness of grassland communities within the study area.

ReSurveyGermany: Vegetation-plot time-series over the past hundred years in Germany

Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. Although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resurvey data from Germany covering almost 100 years. We show the distribution of the plot data in space, time and across habitat types of the European Nature Information System (EUNIS). In addition, we include metadata on geographic location, plot size and vegetation structure. The data allow temporal biodiversity change to be assessed at the community scale, reaching back further into the past than most comparable data yet available. They also enable tracking changes in the incidence and distribution of individual species across Germany. In summary, the data come at a level of detail that holds promise for broadening our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers behind plant diversity change over the last century.

Measurement(s)	vegetation-plot resurvey data of vascular plant species
Technology Type(s)	vegetation-plot records
Factor Type(s)	Cover of species in plots
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Vascular plant species
Sample Characteristic - Environment	Terrestrial habitats
Sample Characteristic - Location	Germany

The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity

Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT₅₀ ) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT₅₀ as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.