Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate

When do multiple pulses of environmental variation trigger tipping in an ecological system?

Climate change and anthropogenic impacts have a significant effect on natural ecosystems. As a response, tipping phenomena, i.e., abrupt qualitative changes in the dynamics of ecosystems, like transitions between alternative stable states, can be observed. We study such critical transitions, caused by an interplay between B-tipping, the rate of change of environmental forcing, and a rate-dependent basin boundary crossing. Instead of a slow trend of environmental change, we focus on pulses of variation in the carrying capacity in a simple ecological model, the spruce budworm model, and show how one pulse of environmental change can lead to tracking the current stable state or to tipping to an alternative state depending on the strength and the duration of the pulse. Moreover, we demonstrate that applying a second pulse after the first one, which can track the desired state, can lead to tipping, although its rate is slow and does not even cross the critical threshold. We explain this unexpected behavior in terms of the interacting timescales, the intrinsic ecological timescale, the rate of environmental change, and the movement of the basin boundaries separating the basins of attraction of the two alternative states.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.

Ensemble learning model identifies adaptation classification and turning points of river microbial communities in response to heatwaves

Heatwaves are a global issue that threaten microbial populations and deteriorate ecosystems. However, how river microbial communities respond to heatwaves and whether and how high temperatures exceed microbial adaptation remain unclear. In this study, we proposed four types of pulse temperature-induced microbial responses and predicted the possibility of microbial adaptation to high temperature in global rivers using ensemble machine learning models. Our findings suggest that microbial communities in parts of South American (e.g., Brazil and Chile) and Southeast Asian (e.g., Vietnam) countries are likely to change due to heatwave disturbance from 25 to 37°C for consecutive days. Furthermore, the microbial communities in approximately 48.4% of the global river gauge stations are prone to fast stress inadaptation, with approximately 76.9% of these stations expected to exceed microbial adaptation after heatwave disturbances. If emissions of particulate matter with sizes not more than 2.5 μm (PM2.5, an indicator of human activities) increase by twofold, the number of global rivers associated with the fast stress adaptation type will decrease by ~13.7% after heatwave disturbances. Understanding microbial responses is crucially important for effective ecosystem management, especially for fragile and sensitive rivers facing heatwave events.

Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1. Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS, leading to self-sustained melting2-4, and the GrIS has been shown to permit several stable states5. Critical transitions are expected when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses specific thresholds, with substantial hysteresis between the stable states6. Here we use two independent ice-sheet models to investigate the impact of different overshoot scenarios with varying peak and convergence temperatures for a broad range of warming and subsequent cooling rates. Our results show that the maximum GMT and the time span of overshooting given GMT targets are critical in determining GrIS stability. We find a threshold GMT between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above preindustrial levels for an abrupt ice-sheet loss. GrIS loss can be substantially mitigated, even for maximum GMTs of 6 °C or more above preindustrial levels, if the GMT is subsequently reduced to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels within a few centuries. However, our results also show that even temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold, without a transition to a new ice-sheet state, still leads to a peak in SLR of up to several metres.

Rate and memory effects in bifurcation-induced tipping

A variation in the environment of a system, such as the temperature, the concentration of a chemical solution, or the appearance of a magnetic field, may lead to a drift in one of the parameters. If the parameter crosses a bifurcation point, the system can tip from one attractor to another (bifurcation-induced tipping). Typically, this stability exchange occurs at a parameter value beyond the bifurcation value. This is what we call, here, the shifted stability exchange. We perform a systematic study on how the shift is affected by the initial parameter value and its change rate. To that end, we present numerical simulations and partly analytical results for different types of bifurcations and different paradigmatic systems. We show that the nonautonomous dynamics can be split into two regimes. Depending on whether we exceed the numerical or experimental precision or not, the system may enter the nondeterministic or the deterministic regime. This is determined solely by the conditions of the drift. Finally, we deduce the scaling laws governing this phenomenon and we observe very similar behavior for different systems and different bifurcations in both regimes.

Stochastic resonance in climate reddening increases the risk of cyclic ecosystem extinction via phase-tipping

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent work indicates that the changing variability, that is, the amplitude and the temporal autocorrelation of deviations from the mean, may have greater and more imminent impact on ecosystems. In this paper, we demonstrate that changes in climate variability alone could drive cyclic predator-prey ecosystems to extinction via so-called phase-tipping (P-tipping), a new type of instability that occurs only from certain phases of the predator-prey cycle. We construct a mathematical model of a variable climate and couple it to two self-oscillating paradigmatic predator-prey models. Most importantly, we combine realistic parameter values for the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare with actual climate data from the boreal forest. In this way, we demonstrate that critically important species in the boreal forest have increased likelihood of P-tipping to extinction under predicted changes in climate variability, and are most vulnerable during stages of the cycle when the predator population is near its maximum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stochastic resonance is the underlying mechanism for the increased likelihood of P-tipping to extinction.

Trajectories and state changes of a grassland stream and riparian zone after a decade of woody vegetation removal

Riparian zones and the streams they border provide vital habitat for organisms, water quality protection, and other important ecosystem services. These areas are under pressure from local (land use/land cover change) to global (climate change) processes. Woody vegetation is expanding in grassland riparian zones worldwide. Here we report on a decade-long watershed-scale mechanical removal of woody riparian vegetation along 4.5 km of stream channel in a before-after control impact experiment. Prior to this removal, woody plants had expanded into grassy riparian areas, associated with a decline in streamflow, loss of grassy plant species, and other ecosystem-scale impacts. We confirmed some expected responses, including rapid increases in stream nutrients and sediments, disappearance of stream mosses, and decreased organic inputs to streams via riparian leaves. We were surprised that nutrient and sediment increases were transient for 3 years, that there was no recovery of stream discharge, and that areas with woody removal did not shift back to a grassland state, even when reseeded with grassland species. Rapid expansion of shrubs (Cornus drummondii, Prunus americana) in the areas where trees were removed allowed woody vegetation to remain dominant despite repeating the cutting every 2 years. Our results suggest woody expansion can fundamentally alter terrestrial and aquatic habitat connections in grasslands, resulting in inexorable movement toward a new ecosystem state. Human pressures, such as climate change, atmospheric CO₂ increases, and elevated atmospheric nitrogen deposition, could continue to push the ecosystem along a trajectory that is difficult to change. Our results suggest that predicting relationships between riparian zones and the streams they border could be difficult in the face of global change in all biomes, even in well-studied sites.

How drought events during the last century have impacted biomass carbon in Amazonian rainforests

During the last two decades, inventory data show that droughts have reduced biomass carbon sink of the Amazon forest by causing mortality to exceed growth. However, process-based models have struggled to include drought-induced responses of growth and mortality and have not been evaluated against plot data. A process-based model, ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, including forest demography with tree cohorts, plant hydraulic architecture and drought-induced tree mortality, was applied over Amazonia rainforests forced by gridded climate fields and rising CO₂ from 1901 to 2019. The model reproduced the decelerating signal of net carbon sink and drought sensitivity of aboveground biomass (AGB) growth and mortality observed at forest plots across selected Amazon intact forests for 2005 and 2010. We predicted a larger mortality rate and a more negative sensitivity of the net carbon sink during the 2015/16 El Niño compared with the former droughts. 2015/16 was indeed the most severe drought since 1901 regarding both AGB loss and area experiencing a severe carbon loss. We found that even if climate change did increase mortality, elevated CO₂ contributed to balance the biomass mortality, since CO₂ -induced stomatal closure reduces transpiration, thus, offsets increased transpiration from CO₂ -induced higher foliage area.

Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points

Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth’s climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO 2 . Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO 2 doubling. However, both in their estimation and their usage, such metrics make assumptions on the linearity of climate response, although it is known that, especially for larger forcing levels, response can be nonlinear. Such nonlinear responses may become visible immediately in response to a larger perturbation, or may only become apparent after a long transient period. In this paper, we illustrate some potential problems and caveats when estimating ECS from transient simulations. We highlight ways that very slow time scales may lead to poor estimation of ECS even if there is seemingly good fit to linear response over moderate time scales. Moreover, such slow processes might lead to late abrupt responses (late tipping points) associated with a system’s nonlinearities. We illustrate these ideas using simulations on a global energy balance model with dynamic albedo. We also discuss the implications for estimating ECS for global climate models, highlighting that it is likely to remain difficult to make definitive statements about the simulation times needed to reach an equilibrium.

Self-Enclosed Bio-Photoelectrochemical Cell in Succulent Plants

Harvesting an electrical current from biological photosynthetic systems (live cells or isolated complexes) is typically achieved by immersion of the system into an electrolyte solution. In this study, we show that the aqueous solution found in the tissues of succulent plants can be used directly as a natural bio-photo electrochemical cell. Here, the thick water-preserving outer cuticle of the succulent Corpuscularia lehmannii serves as the electrochemical container, the inner water content as the electrolyte into which an iron anode and platinum cathode are introduced. We produce up to 20 μA/cm² bias-free photocurrent. When 0.5 V bias is added to the iron anode, the current density increases ∼10-fold, and evolved hydrogen gas can be collected with a Faradaic efficiency of 2.1 and 3.5% in dark or light, respectively. The addition of the photosystem II inhibitor 3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea inhibits the photocurrent, indicating that water oxidation is the primary source of electrons in the light. Two-dimensional fluorescence measurements show that NADH and NADPH serve as the major mediating electron transfer molecules, functionally connecting photosynthesis to metal electrodes. This work presents a method to simultaneously absorb CO₂ while producing an electrical current with minimal engineering requirements.

Near-term climate risks and solar radiation modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research

Current impacts and escalating risks of climate change require strong and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They also highlight the urgency of research to enhance safety for human and natural systems, especially for those most vulnerable. This is reflected in two recent US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine studies that recommended a national focus on advancing our understanding of how to manage urgent current and future climate risks, and the study of approaches for increasing the reflection of sunlight from the atmosphere to reduce global warming, a process referred to as sunlight reflection modification (SRM). Here, we build on these recommendations by proposing a roadmap approach for the planning, coordination, and delivery of research to support a robust scientific assessment of SRM to reduce near-term climate risks in a defined timeframe. This approach is designed to support the evaluation of SRM as a possible rapid, temporary, additive measure to reduce catastrophic impacts from anthropogenic climate change, not as a substitute for aggressive GHG mitigation. Assessing SRM is proposed to be undertaken in the context of climate hazard risks through 2050, weighing the impacts associated with likely climate change trajectories against scenarios of possible SRM implementations. Provided that research is undertaken openly and that scientific resources are made widely available, the transparency of the process and the evidence generated would contribute to the democratization of information, participation by diverse stakeholders, more informed decision-making, and better opportunities for all people to weigh SRM options against climate change risks.

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways

Temperature overshoot pathways entail exceeding a specified global warming level (e.g. 1.5°C or 2°C) followed by a decline in warming, achieved through anthropogenically enhanced CO2 removal from the atmosphere. However, risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways are poorly described. Here, we explore biodiversity risks from overshoot by synthesizing existing knowledge and quantifying the dynamics of exposure and de-exposure to potentially dangerous temperatures for more than 30 000 species for a 2°C overshoot scenario. Our results suggest that climate risk to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways will arrive suddenly, but decrease only gradually. Peak exposure for biodiversity occurs around the same time as peak global warming, but the rate of de-exposure lags behind the temperature decline. While the global overshoot period lasts around 60 years, the duration of elevated exposure of marine and terrestrial biodiversity is substantially longer (around 100 and 130 years, respectively), with some ecological communities never returning to pre-overshoot exposure levels. Key biodiversity impacts may be irreversible and reliance on widespread CO2 removal to reduce warming poses additional risks to biodiversity through altered land use. Avoiding any temperature overshoot must be a priority for reducing biodiversity risks from climate change, followed by limiting the magnitude and duration of any overshoot. More integrated models that include direct and indirect impacts from overshoot are needed to inform policy. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

A kabuli chickpea ideotype

The concept of 'crop ideotype' is coined as a desirable plant model expected to better perform for seed yield, oils and other useful characteristics when developed as a cultivar, and it consists of two major approaches, namely, (i) 'defect elimination', that is, integration of disease resistance to a susceptible genotype from a resistant genotype and (ii) 'selection for yield' by improving yield after crosses between desirable parents. For consideration of these approaches, here we introduced an ideotype in kabuli chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) which is high-yielding, extra-large-seeded, and double- or multi-podded, has high plant height and imparipinnate-leafed traits, and is heat tolerant and resistant to ascochyta blight [Ascochyta rabiei (Pass.) Labr.], which causes considerable yield losses, via marker-assisted selection. F3 and F4 lines were evaluated for agro-morphological traits divided into six classes, namely, (i) imparipinnate-leafed and single-podded progeny, (ii) imparipinnate-leafed and double-podded progeny, (iii) imparipinnate-leafed and multi-podded progeny, (iv) unifoliolate-leafed and single-podded progeny, (v) unifoliolate-leafed and double-podded progeny, (vi) unifoliolate-leafed and multi-podded progeny. F3:4 lines having 100-seed weight ≥ 45 g and double- or multi-podded traits were additionally assessed for resistance to ascochyta blight using molecular markers including SCY17590 and CaETR-1. Superior lines having higher values than their best parents were determined for all studied traits indicating that economic and important traits including yield and seed size in chickpea could be improved by crossing suitable parents. Imparipinnate-leafed and multi-podded plants had not only the highest number of pods and seeds per plant but also the highest yield. On the other hand, imparipinnate-leafed and single podded progeny had the largest seed size, followed by imparipinnate-leafed and double-podded progeny. Multi-podded plants produced 23% more seed yield than that of single-podded plants, while multi-podded plants attained 7.6% more seed yield than that of double-podded plants. SCY17590 and CaETR-1 markers located on LG4 related to QTLAR2 and QTLAR1 were found in 14 lines among 152 F3:4 lines. Six superior lines were selected for being double- or multi-podded, imparipinnate-leafed, suitable for combine harvest, heat-tolerant, and resistant to ascochyta blight, and having both of two resistance markers and extra-large seeds as high as 50-60 g per 100-seed weight. Resistance alleles from two different backgrounds for resistance to ascochyta blight were integrated with double- or multi-podded kabuli chickpea lines having high yield, extra-large seeds, high plant height, imparipinnate-leaves and high heat tolerance, playing a crucial role for future demands of population and food security. These approaches seem to be applicable in ideotype breeding for other important crop plants.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Rate-dependent tipping and early warning in a thermoacoustic system under extreme operating environment

Thermoacoustic instability has been an important challenge in the development of high-performance combustion systems, as it can have catastrophic consequences. The process of a sudden change in the dynamical behavior of a thermoacoustic system from a low- to high-amplitude thermoacoustic instability actually entails as a tipping point phenomenon. It has been found that when rate-dependent parameters are considered, a tipping-delay phenomenon may arise, which helps in the control of undesirable states that give rise to thermoacoustic instabilities. This work aims at understanding rate-dependent tipping dynamics of the thermoacoustic system with both time-varying parameters and a non-Gaussian Lévy noise. The latter better describes the severe operating environment of such systems than simpler types of noise. Through numerical simulations, the tipping dynamical behavior is analyzed by considering the rate-dependent parameters coupled with the main parameters of the Lévy noise, including the stability and skewness indices and the noise intensity. In addition, we investigate the effectiveness of early warning indicators in rate-dependent systems under Lévy noise excitation and uncover a relationship between warning measures and the rate of change in the parameters. These results inform and enlighten the development and design of power combustion devices and also provide researchers and engineers with effective ideas to control thermoacoustic instability and the associated tipping dynamics.

Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

[Figure: see text].

Multi-Decadal Variability and Future Changes in Precipitation over Southern Africa

The future planning and management of water resources ought to be based on climate change projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales. This work uses the new regional demarcation for Southern Africa (SA) to investigate the spatio-temporal precipitation variability and trends of centennial-scale observation and modeled data, based on datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The study employs several statistical methods to rank the models according to their precipitation simulation ability. The Theil–Sen slope estimator is used to assess precipitation trends, with a Student’s t-test for the significance test. The comparison of observation and model historical data enables identification of the best-performing global climate models (GCMs), which are then employed in the projection analysis under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The GCMs adequately capture the annual precipitation variation but with a general overestimation, especially over high-elevation areas. Most of the models fail to capture precipitation over the Lesotho-Eswatini area. The three best-performing GCMs over SA are FGOALS-g3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and NorESM2-LM. The sub-regions demonstrate that precipitation trends cannot be generalized and that localized studies can provide more accurate findings. Overall, precipitation in the wet and dry seasons shows an initial increase during the near future over western and eastern SA, followed by a reduction in precipitation during the mid- and far future under both projection scenarios. Madagascar is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation amount throughout the twenty-first century.