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Lee SY. Using Bayesian statistics in confirmatory clinical trials in the regulatory setting: a tutorial review. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:110. [PMID: 38714936 PMCID: PMC11077897 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02235-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Bayesian statistics plays a pivotal role in advancing medical science by enabling healthcare companies, regulators, and stakeholders to assess the safety and efficacy of new treatments, interventions, and medical procedures. The Bayesian framework offers a unique advantage over the classical framework, especially when incorporating prior information into a new trial with quality external data, such as historical data or another source of co-data. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in regulatory submissions using Bayesian statistics due to its flexibility and ability to provide valuable insights for decision-making, addressing the modern complexity of clinical trials where frequentist trials are inadequate. For regulatory submissions, companies often need to consider the frequentist operating characteristics of the Bayesian analysis strategy, regardless of the design complexity. In particular, the focus is on the frequentist type I error rate and power for all realistic alternatives. This tutorial review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the use of Bayesian statistics in sample size determination, control of type I error rate, multiplicity adjustments, external data borrowing, etc., in the regulatory environment of clinical trials. Fundamental concepts of Bayesian sample size determination and illustrative examples are provided to serve as a valuable resource for researchers, clinicians, and statisticians seeking to develop more complex and innovative designs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Se Yoon Lee
- Department of Statistics, Texas A &M University, 3143 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.
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2
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Iketani S, Ho DD. SARS-CoV-2 resistance to monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule drugs. Cell Chem Biol 2024; 31:632-657. [PMID: 38640902 PMCID: PMC11084874 DOI: 10.1016/j.chembiol.2024.03.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2023] [Revised: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/21/2024]
Abstract
Over four years have passed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The scientific response has been rapid and effective, with many therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and small molecules developed for clinical use. However, given the ability for viruses to become resistant to antivirals, it is perhaps no surprise that the field has identified resistance to nearly all of these compounds. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the resistance profile for each of these therapeutics. We hope that this resource provides an atlas for mutations to be aware of for each agent, particularly as a springboard for considerations for the next generation of antivirals. Finally, we discuss the outlook and thoughts for moving forward in how we continue to manage this, and the next, pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sho Iketani
- Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA
| | - David D Ho
- Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA.
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3
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Blackwell SE. Using the 'Leapfrog' Design as a Simple Form of Adaptive Platform Trial to Develop, Test, and Implement Treatment Personalization Methods in Routine Practice. ADMINISTRATION AND POLICY IN MENTAL HEALTH AND MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH 2024:10.1007/s10488-023-01340-4. [PMID: 38316652 DOI: 10.1007/s10488-023-01340-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
Abstract
The route for the development, evaluation and dissemination of personalized psychological therapies is complex and challenging. In particular, the large sample sizes needed to provide adequately powered trials of newly-developed personalization approaches means that the traditional treatment development route is extremely inefficient. This paper outlines the promise of adaptive platform trials (APT) embedded within routine practice as a method to streamline development and testing of personalized psychological therapies, and close the gap to implementation in real-world settings. It focuses in particular on a recently-developed simplified APT design, the 'leapfrog' trial, illustrating via simulation how such a trial may proceed and the advantages it can bring, for example in terms of reduced sample sizes. Finally it discusses models of how such trials could be implemented in routine practice, including potential challenges and caveats, alongside a longer-term perspective on the development of personalized psychological treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon E Blackwell
- Department of Clinical Psychology and Experimental Psychopathology, Georg-Elias-Mueller-Institute of Psychology, University of Göttingen, Kurze-Geismar-Str.1, 37073, Göttingen, Germany.
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Agarwal A, Marion J, Nagy P, Robinson M, Walkey A, Sevransky J. How Electronic Medical Record Integration Can Support More Efficient Critical Care Clinical Trials. Crit Care Clin 2023; 39:733-749. [PMID: 37704337 DOI: 10.1016/j.ccc.2023.03.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Large volumes of data are collected on critically ill patients, and using data science to extract information from the electronic medical record (EMR) and to inform the design of clinical trials represents a new opportunity in critical care research. Using improved methods of phenotyping critical illnesses, subject identification and enrollment, and targeted treatment group assignment alongside newer trial designs such as adaptive platform trials can increase efficiency while lowering costs. Some tools such as the EMR to automate data collection are already in use. Refinement of data science approaches in critical illness research will allow for better clinical trials and, ultimately, improved patient outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ankita Agarwal
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Emory Critical Care Center, Emory Healthcare, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Paul Nagy
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Matthew Robinson
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Allan Walkey
- Department of Medicine - Section of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jonathan Sevransky
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Emory Critical Care Center, Emory Healthcare, Atlanta, GA, USA.
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Yang P, Dickert NW, Haczku A, Spainhour C, Auld SC. Trend in Clinical Trial Participation During COVID-19: A Secondary Analysis of the I-SPY COVID Clinical Trial. Crit Care Explor 2023; 5:e0930. [PMID: 37346229 PMCID: PMC10281328 DOI: 10.1097/cce.0000000000000930] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/23/2023] Open
Abstract
To analyze the temporal trend in enrollment rates in a COVID-19 platform trial during the first three waves of the pandemic in the United States. DESIGN Secondary analysis of data from the I-SPY COVID randomized controlled trial (RCT). SETTING Thirty-one hospitals throughout the United States. PATIENTS Patients who were approached, either directly or via a legally authorized representative, for consent and enrollment into the I-SPY COVID RCT. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Among 1,338 patients approached for the I-SPY COVID trial from July 30, 2020, to February 17, 2022, the number of patients who enrolled (n = 1,063) versus declined participation (n = 275) was used to calculate monthly enrollment rates. Overall, demographic and baseline clinical characteristics were similar between those who enrolled versus declined. Enrollment rates fluctuated over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, but there were no significant trends over time (Mann-Kendall test, p = 0.21). Enrollment rates were also comparable between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, age, sex, region of residence, COVID-19 severity of illness, and vaccination status were not significantly associated with the decision to decline consent. CONCLUSIONS In this secondary analysis of the I-SPY COVID clinical trial, there was no significant association between the enrollment rate and time period or vaccination status among all eligible patients approached for clinical trial participation. Additional studies are needed to better understand whether the COVID-19 pandemic has altered clinical trial participation and to develop strategies for encouraging participation in future COVID-19 and critical care clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Yang
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Neal W Dickert
- Division of Cardiology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
- Emory Health Services Research Center, Departments of Medicine & Surgery, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Angela Haczku
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, University of California Davis, Sacramento, CA
| | - Christine Spainhour
- Emory Critical Care Center, Department of Surgery, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA
| | - Sara C Auld
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
- Departments of Epidemiology and Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
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Report of the first seven agents in the I-SPY COVID trial: a phase 2, open label, adaptive platform randomised controlled trial. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 58:101889. [PMID: 36883141 PMCID: PMC9981330 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2022] [Revised: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 02/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND An urgent need exists to rapidly screen potential therapeutics for severe COVID-19 or other emerging pathogens associated with high morbidity and mortality. METHODS Using an adaptive platform design created to rapidly evaluate investigational agents, hospitalised patients with severe COVID-19 requiring ≥6 L/min oxygen were randomised to either a backbone regimen of dexamethasone and remdesivir alone (controls) or backbone plus one open-label investigational agent. Patients were enrolled to the arms described between July 30, 2020 and June 11, 2021 in 20 medical centres in the United States. The platform contained up to four potentially available investigational agents and controls available for randomisation during a single time-period. The two primary endpoints were time-to-recovery (<6 L/min oxygen for two consecutive days) and mortality. Data were evaluated biweekly in comparison to pre-specified criteria for graduation (i.e., likely efficacy), futility, and safety, with an adaptive sample size of 40-125 individuals per agent and a Bayesian analytical approach. Criteria were designed to achieve rapid screening of agents and to identify large benefit signals. Concurrently enrolled controls were used for all analyses. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04488081. FINDINGS The first 7 agents evaluated were cenicriviroc (CCR2/5 antagonist; n = 92), icatibant (bradykinin antagonist; n = 96), apremilast (PDE4 inhibitor; n = 67), celecoxib/famotidine (COX2/histamine blockade; n = 30), IC14 (anti-CD14; n = 67), dornase alfa (inhaled DNase; n = 39) and razuprotafib (Tie2 agonist; n = 22). Razuprotafib was dropped from the trial due to feasibility issues. In the modified intention-to-treat analyses, no agent met pre-specified efficacy/graduation endpoints with posterior probabilities for the hazard ratios [HRs] for recovery ≤1.5 between 0.99 and 1.00. The data monitoring committee stopped Celecoxib/Famotidine for potential harm (median posterior HR for recovery 0.5, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.28-0.90; median posterior HR for death 1.67, 95% CrI 0.79-3.58). INTERPRETATION None of the first 7 agents to enter the trial met the prespecified criteria for a large efficacy signal. Celecoxib/Famotidine was stopped early for potential harm. Adaptive platform trials may provide a useful approach to rapidly screen multiple agents during a pandemic. FUNDING Quantum Leap Healthcare Collaborative is the trial sponsor. Funding for this trial has come from: the COVID R&D Consortium, Allergan, Amgen Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Implicit Bioscience, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Inc., Roche/Genentech, Apotex Inc., FAST Grant from Emergent Venture George Mason University, The DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), The Department of Health and Human ServicesBiomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and The Grove Foundation. Effort sponsored by the U.S. Government under Other Transaction number W15QKN-16-9-1002 between the MCDC, and the Government.
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Dal-Ré R, Caplan AL, Voo TC. Informed consent process in the I-SPY COVID trial is questionable. Eur J Intern Med 2023; 107:98-99. [PMID: 36283909 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2022.10.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Dal-Ré
- Epidemiology Unit, Health Research Institute-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Avda. Reyes Católicos 2, E-28040 Madrid, Spain.
| | - Arthur L Caplan
- Division of Medical Ethics, Grossman School of Medicine, NYU Langone Medical Center, 550 1st Ave., New York, NY 10016, USA
| | - Teck Chuan Voo
- Centre for Biomedical Ethics, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, Clinical Research Centre, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd 117597, Block MD11, #02-03, 10 Medical Drive, Singapore 119077, Singapore
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Tallarico RT, Neto AS, Legrand M. Pragmatic platform trials to improve the outcome of patients with acute kidney injury. Curr Opin Crit Care 2022; 28:622-629. [PMID: 36170383 PMCID: PMC9613599 DOI: 10.1097/mcc.0000000000000990] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW There is an important need for improved diagnostic strategies and treatment among patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Classical randomized clinical trials have generated relevant results in AKI but are associated with shortcomings, such as high costs and sometimes lack of generalizability. In this minireview, we discuss the value and limits of pragmatic trials and platform trials for AKI research. RECENT FINDINGS The implementation of pragmatic and platform trials in critical care settings has generated relevant clinical evidence impacting clinical practice. Pragmatic and platform designs have recently been applied to patients at risk of AKI and represent a crucial opportunity to advance our understanding of optimized treatment and strategies in patients at risk of AKI or presenting with AKI. Trials embedded in electronic health records can facilitate patient enrollment and data collection. Platform trials have allowed for a more efficient study design. Although both pragmatic and platform trials have several advantages, they also come with the challenges and shortcomings discussed in this review. SUMMARY Pragmatic and platform trials can provide clinical answers in 'real-life' settings, facilitate a significant sample size enrollment at a limited cost, and provide results that can have a faster implementation in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberta T Tallarico
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Anesthesia & Perioperative Care, University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Ary S Neto
- Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre (ANZIC-RC), School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University
- Department of Intensive Care, Austin Hospital
- Department of Critical Care, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Matthieu Legrand
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Anesthesia & Perioperative Care, University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, California, USA
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9
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Editorial: Renal system section in current opinion in critical care: pathways forward for innovation in acute kidney injury. Curr Opin Crit Care 2022; 28:581-582. [PMID: 36302193 DOI: 10.1097/mcc.0000000000000989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
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10
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Aviptadil for COVID-19: A Case Study and Call to Action About the Challenges of Research During a Global Pandemic. Crit Care Med 2022; 50:1662-1664. [PMID: 36227034 PMCID: PMC9555556 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000005686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
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Leligdowicz A, Harhay MO, Calfee CS. Immune Modulation in Sepsis, ARDS, and Covid-19 - The Road Traveled and the Road Ahead. NEJM EVIDENCE 2022; 1:EVIDra2200118. [PMID: 38319856 DOI: 10.1056/evidra2200118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2024]
Abstract
Immune Modulation in Sepsis, ARDS, and Covid-19Leligdowicz et al. consider the history and future of immunomodulating therapies in sepsis and ARDS, including ARDS due to Covid-19, and remark on the larger challenge of clinical research on therapies for syndromes with profound clinical and biologic heterogeneity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleksandra Leligdowicz
- Department of Medicine, Division of Critical Care Medicine, Western University, London, ON, Canada
- Robarts Research Institute, Western University, London, ON, Canada
| | - Michael O Harhay
- Clinical Trials Methods and Outcomes Lab, Palliative and Advanced Illness Research (PAIR) Center, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
| | - Carolyn S Calfee
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Allergy and Sleep Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco
- Cardiovascular Research Institute, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco
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12
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Gorman EA, O'Kane CM, McAuley DF. Acute respiratory distress syndrome in adults: diagnosis, outcomes, long-term sequelae, and management. Lancet 2022; 400:1157-1170. [PMID: 36070788 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01439-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 46.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterised by acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure with bilateral infiltrates on chest imaging, which is not fully explained by cardiac failure or fluid overload. ARDS is defined by the Berlin criteria. In this Series paper the diagnosis, management, outcomes, and long-term sequelae of ARDS are reviewed. Potential limitations of the ARDS definition and evidence that could inform future revisions are considered. Guideline recommendations, evidence, and uncertainties in relation to ARDS management are discussed. The future of ARDS strives towards a precision medicine approach, and the framework of treatable traits in ARDS diagnosis and management is explored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen A Gorman
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Cecilia M O'Kane
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Daniel F McAuley
- Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
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13
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Dal-Ré R, Caplan AL, Voo TC. Participants' informed consent in adaptive, platform drug trials in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: Not all approaches are ethically acceptable. Eur J Intern Med 2022; 103:1-3. [PMID: 35780073 PMCID: PMC9236980 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2022.06.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2022] [Revised: 06/23/2022] [Accepted: 06/26/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Dal-Ré
- Epidemiology Unit, Health Research Institute-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Avda. Reyes Católicos 2, Madrid E-28040, Spain.
| | - Arthur L Caplan
- Division of Medical Ethics, Grossman School of Medicine, NYU Langone Medical Center, 550 1st Ave., New York, NY 10016, USA
| | - Teck Chuan Voo
- Centre for Biomedical Ethics, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, Clinical research Centre, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd 117597, Block MD11, #02-03, 10 Medical Drive, Singapore 119077, Singapore
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Martin TR, Zemans RL, Ware LB, Schmidt EP, Riches DWH, Bastarache L, Calfee CS, Desai TJ, Herold S, Hough CL, Looney MR, Matthay MA, Meyer N, Parikh SM, Stevens T, Thompson BT. New Insights into Clinical and Mechanistic Heterogeneity of the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Summary of the Aspen Lung Conference 2021. Am J Respir Cell Mol Biol 2022; 67:284-308. [PMID: 35679511 PMCID: PMC9447141 DOI: 10.1165/rcmb.2022-0089ws] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Clinical and molecular heterogeneity are common features of human disease. Understanding the basis for heterogeneity has led to major advances in therapy for many cancers and pulmonary diseases such as cystic fibrosis and asthma. Although heterogeneity of risk factors, disease severity, and outcomes in survivors are common features of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), many challenges exist in understanding the clinical and molecular basis for disease heterogeneity and using heterogeneity to tailor therapy for individual patients. This report summarizes the proceedings of the 2021 Aspen Lung Conference, which was organized to review key issues related to understanding clinical and molecular heterogeneity in ARDS. The goals were to review new information about ARDS phenotypes, to explore multicellular and multisystem mechanisms responsible for heterogeneity, and to review how best to account for clinical and molecular heterogeneity in clinical trial design and assessment of outcomes. The report concludes with recommendations for future research to understand the clinical and basic mechanisms underlying heterogeneity in ARDS to advance the development of new treatments for this life-threatening critical illness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas R. Martin
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Rachel L. Zemans
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Program in Cellular and Molecular Biology, University of Michigan School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Lorraine B. Ware
- Division of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine and
- Division of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Eric P. Schmidt
- Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado
| | - David W. H. Riches
- Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado
- Program in Cell Biology, Department of Pediatrics, National Jewish Health, Denver, Colorado
| | - Lisa Bastarache
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Carolyn S. Calfee
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Allergy, and Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Allergy, and Sleep Medicine, Department of Anesthesia
| | - Tushar J. Desai
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Stem Cell Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Susanne Herold
- Department of Internal Medicine VI and Cardio-Pulmonary Institute (CPI), Universities of Giessen and Marburg Lung Center (UGMLC), Giessen, Germany
| | - Catherine L. Hough
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon
| | | | - Michael A. Matthay
- Departments of Medicine and Anesthesia, Cardiovascular Research Institute, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Nuala Meyer
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Samir M. Parikh
- Center for Vascular Biology Research, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
- Division of Nephrology, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, Texas
| | - Troy Stevens
- Department of Physiology and Cell Biology, College of Medicine, Center for Lung Biology, University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama; and
| | - B. Taylor Thompson
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
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15
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Legrand M, Bagshaw SM, Koyner JL, Schulman IH, Mathis MR, Bernholz J, Coca S, Gallagher M, Gaudry S, Liu KD, Mehta RL, Pirracchio R, Ryan A, Steubl D, Stockbridge N, Erlandsson F, Turan A, Wilson FP, Zarbock A, Bokoch MP, Casey JD, Rossignol P, Harhay MO. Optimizing the Design and Analysis of Future AKI Trials. J Am Soc Nephrol 2022; 33:1459-1470. [PMID: 35831022 PMCID: PMC9342638 DOI: 10.1681/asn.2021121605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
AKI is a complex clinical syndrome associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality, particularly in critically ill and perioperative patient populations. Most AKI clinical trials have been inconclusive, failing to detect clinically important treatment effects at predetermined statistical thresholds. Heterogeneity in the pathobiology, etiology, presentation, and clinical course of AKI remains a key challenge in successfully testing new approaches for AKI prevention and treatment. This article, derived from the "AKI" session of the "Kidney Disease Clinical Trialists" virtual workshop held in October 2021, reviews barriers to and strategies for improving the design and implementation of clinical trials in patients with, or at risk of, developing AKI. The novel approaches to trial design included in this review span adaptive trial designs that increase the knowledge gained from each trial participant; pragmatic trial designs that allow for the efficient enrollment of sufficiently large numbers of patients to detect small, but clinically significant, treatment effects; and platform trial designs that use one trial infrastructure to answer multiple clinical questions simultaneously. This review also covers novel approaches to clinical trial analysis, such as Bayesian analysis and assessing heterogeneity in the response to therapies among trial participants. We also propose a road map and actionable recommendations to facilitate the adoption of the reviewed approaches. We hope that the resulting road map will help guide future clinical trial planning, maximize learning from AKI trials, and reduce the risk of missing important signals of benefit (or harm) from trial interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthieu Legrand
- Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Care, Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- French Clinical Research Infrastructure Network, Investigation Network Initiative Cardiovascular and Renal Trialists, Nancy, France
| | - Sean M Bagshaw
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Jay L Koyner
- Section of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Ivonne H Schulman
- Division of Kidney, Urologic and Hematologic Diseases, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Michael R Mathis
- Department of Anesthesiology, Michigan Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | | | - Steven Coca
- Division of Nephrology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Martin Gallagher
- The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Stéphane Gaudry
- French Clinical Research Infrastructure Network, Investigation Network Initiative Cardiovascular and Renal Trialists, Nancy, France
- Département de Réanimation, Medical and surgical intensive care unit, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris Hôpital Avicenne, Bobigny, France
- Common and Rare Kidney Diseases, Sorbonne Université, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), UMR-S 1155, Paris, France
| | - Kathleen D Liu
- Divisions of Nephrology and Critical Care Medicine, Departments of Medicine and Anesthesia, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Ravindra L Mehta
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California
| | - Romain Pirracchio
- Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Abigail Ryan
- Division of Chronic Care Management, Chronic Care Policy Group, Center for Medicare, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Dominik Steubl
- Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Ingelheim, Germany
- Department of Nephrology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Norman Stockbridge
- Office of New Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland
| | | | - Alparslan Turan
- Department of Anesthesiology, Lerner College of Medicine of Case Western University, Cleveland, Ohio
- Department of Outcomes Research, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - F Perry Wilson
- Section of Nephrology and Clinical and Translational Research Accelerator, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Alexander Zarbock
- Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, University Hospital Münster, Münster, Germany
| | - Michael P Bokoch
- Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Care, Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Jonathan D Casey
- Division of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Patrick Rossignol
- French Clinical Research Infrastructure Network, Investigation Network Initiative Cardiovascular and Renal Trialists, Nancy, France
- University of Lorraine, INSERM CIC 1433, Nancy, France
- Nancy CHRU, INSERM U1116, Nancy, French national institute of Health and Medical Research, unit 1116, Nancy, France
| | - Michael O Harhay
- Clinical Trials Methods and Outcomes Laboratory, PAIR (Palliative and Advanced Illness Research) Center, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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16
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Abstract
Research and practice in critical care medicine have long been defined by syndromes, which, despite being clinically recognizable entities, are, in fact, loose amalgams of heterogeneous states that may respond differently to therapy. Mounting translational evidence-supported by research on respiratory failure due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection-suggests that the current syndrome-based framework of critical illness should be reconsidered. Here we discuss recent findings from basic science and clinical research in critical care and explore how these might inform a new conceptual model of critical illness. De-emphasizing syndromes, we focus on the underlying biological changes that underpin critical illness states and that may be amenable to treatment. We hypothesize that such an approach will accelerate critical care research, leading to a richer understanding of the pathobiology of critical illness and of the key determinants of patient outcomes. This, in turn, will support the design of more effective clinical trials and inform a more precise and more effective practice at the bedside.
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