Global monthly gridded atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations under the historical and future scenarios

Reducing aerosol and ammonia emission in post-combustion CO2 capture: Additives as key solutions

Advancement of the absorbent for CO2 capture is essential in optimizing the performance and reducing the negative environmental effects associated with this technology. Despite ammonia's promise as an absorbent, the volatility limits its practical application and creates potential environmental pollution. Therein, we assess various additives (amino acids, carbonates, and alkanolamines) for ammonia-based solvents using multi-stage circulation absorber from the viewpoints of aerosol emission, ammonia emission, and CO2 capture efficiency. Experimental findings reveal that ammonia volatilization can be inhibited by the protonation of free ammonia by carboxyl groups and the formation of hydrogen bonding between amino/hydroxyl groups and ammonia, with ammonia emission reduced by 21.7 %, aerosol emission reduced by 26.5 %, and CO2 capture efficiency increased to a maximum of 87.8 % under the condition of adding histidine. Moreover, the experiment highlights a positive correlation between total ammonia emission and aerosol concentration/diameter. Additionally, tests combining source abatement with water wash exhibit up to 50.5 % aerosol removal efficiency and up to 76.6 % ammonia removal efficiency. To further mitigate emissions, a comprehensive approach is proposed, achieving an 84.4 % reduction in ammonia emission and a 61.9 % reduction in aerosol emission. Finally, a method for recycling ammonia for desulfurization is suggested.

Global Distribution of Mercury in Foliage Predicted by Machine Learning

Foliar assimilation of elemental mercury (Hg0) from the atmosphere plays a critical role in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle, leading to atmospheric Hg removal and soil Hg insertion. Recent studies have estimated global foliar Hg assimilation; however, large uncertainties remained due to coarse accounting of observed foliar Hg concentrations, posing a substantial challenge in constraining the global Hg budget. Here, we integrated a comprehensive observation database of foliar Hg concentrations and machine learning algorithms to predict the first spatial distribution of foliar Hg concentrations on a global scale, contributing to the first estimate of global Hg pools in foliage. The global average of foliar Hg concentrations was estimated to be 24.0 ng g-1 (7.5-56.5 ng g-1), and the global total in foliar Hg pools reached 4561.3 Mg (1455.2-9062.8 Mg). The spatial distribution showed the hotspots in tropical regions, including the Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia. A range of 2268.5-2727.0 Mg yr-1 was estimated for annual foliar Hg assimilation accounting for the perennial continuous assimilation by evergreen vegetation foliage. The first spatial maps of foliar Hg concentrations and Hg pools may aid in understanding the global biogeochemical cycling of Hg, especially in the context of climate change and global vegetation greening.

The Open DAC 2023 Dataset and Challenges for Sorbent Discovery in Direct Air Capture

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 with porous adsorbents such as metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) has the potential to aid large-scale decarbonization. Previous screening of MOFs for DAC relied on empirical force fields and ignored adsorbed H2O and MOF deformation. We performed quantum chemistry calculations overcoming these restrictions for thousands of MOFs. The resulting data enable efficient descriptions using machine learning.

Ambient carbon dioxide concentration correlates with SARS-CoV-2 aerostability and infection risk

An improved understanding of the underlying physicochemical properties of respiratory aerosol that influence viral infectivity may open new avenues to mitigate the transmission of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Previous studies have shown that an increase in the pH of respiratory aerosols following generation due to changes in the gas-particle partitioning of pH buffering bicarbonate ions and carbon dioxide is a significant factor in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. We show here that a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 aerostability results from a moderate increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (e.g. 800 ppm), an effect that is more marked than that observed for changes in relative humidity. We model the likelihood of COVID-19 transmission on the ambient concentration of CO2, concluding that even this moderate increase in CO2 concentration results in a significant increase in overall risk. These observations confirm the critical importance of ventilation and maintaining low CO2 concentrations in indoor environments for mitigating disease transmission. Moreover, the correlation of increased CO2 concentration with viral aerostability need to be better understood when considering the consequences of increases in ambient CO2 levels in our atmosphere.

Micro and Nanoporous Membrane Platforms for Carbon Neutrality: Membrane Gas Separation Prospects

Recently, carbon neutrality has been promoted as a potentially practical solution to global CO2 emissions and increasing energy-consumption challenges. Many attempts have been made to remove CO2 from the environment to address climate change and rising sea levels owing to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Herein, membrane technology is proposed as a suitable solution for carbon neutrality. This review aims to comprehensively evaluate the currently available scientific research on membranes for carbon capture, focusing on innovative microporous material membranes used for CO2 separation and considering their material, chemical, and physical characteristics and permeability factors. Membranes from such materials comprise metal-organic frameworks, zeolites, silica, porous organic frameworks, and microporous polymers. The critical obstacles related to membrane design, growth, and CO2 capture and usage processes are summarized to establish novel membranes and strategies and accelerate their scaleup.

Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change

The ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to land-atmosphere carbon exchanges, and changes in global GPP as well as its influencing factors have been well studied in recent years. However, identifying the spatio-temporal variations of global GPP under future climate changes is still a challenging issue. This study aims to develop data-driven approach for predicting the global GPP as well as its monthly and annual variations up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Specifically, Catboost was employed to examine the potential relationship between the GPP and environmental factors, with climate variables, CO2 concentration and terrain attributes being selected as environmental factors. The predicted monthly and annual GPP from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that the global GPP is predicted to increase under the future climate change in the 21st century. The annual GPP is expected to be 115.122 Pg C, 116.537 Pg C, 117.626 Pg C, and 120.097 Pg C in 2100 under four future scenarios, and the predicted monthly GPP shows seasonal difference. Meanwhile, GPP tends to increase in the northern mid-high latitude regions and decrease in the equatorial regions. For the climate zones form Köppen-Geiger classification, the arid, cold, and polar zones present increased GPP, while GPP in the tropical zone will decrease in the future. Moreover, the high importance of climate variables in GPP prediction illustrates that the future climate change is the main driver of the global GPP dynamics. This study provides a basis for predicting how global GPP responds to future climate change in the coming decades, which contribute to understanding the interactions between vegetation and climate.

Projecting the impact of climate change and elevated CO2 concentration on rice irrigation water requirement in China

Climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations significantly affect rice growth and water consumption. Understanding the specific impacts of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on rice physiological phenology, crop water demand (ETC), and irrigation water requirement (IR) is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and food security. This is particularly true in China, the world's largest rice producer. In this study, with the help of two rice phenological models, the modified Penman-Monteith equation, and the paddy water balance model, we project the changes in rice phenological period, ETC, and IR in four main rice-producing regions of China in the period 2015-2100 based on the 11 GCM outputs. The results show that the rice growing period is shortened in most rice-producing regions, except for the parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, the trend of ETC and IR of rice varies slightly among regions in the future scenario, with almost all regions decreasing yearly except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where the trend is increasing. The progressively increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration has a "fertilization effect" on the crop, which can reduce the water requirements of rice. In the SSP585 scenario, the " CO2 fertilization effect" can reduce up to 8.87 × 108 m3 of ETC and 6.94 × 108 m3 of IR in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the period of 2090s. This study provides beneficial references to understand the response of rice ETC and IR to future climate change and CO2 concentration elevation in China and highlights that the simulation in terms of crop irrigation must account for the "CO2 fertilization effect".

Water use efficiency of China's karst ecosystems: The effect of different ecohydrological and climatic factors

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important indicator for understanding the coupled ecosystem carbon and water cycles. However, the effect and contributions of factors on WUE variations in China's karst ecosystems for different climatic conditions have not been extensively studied. Our studies on WUE variations of China's karst ecosystems from 2001 to 2021 based on evapotranspiration and net primary productivity (NPP) from Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer revealed the contributions of soil moisture (SM), leaf area index (LAI), precipitation (P), temperature (T), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and CO2 concentration (CO2). Results showed that the trend of WUE was similar to that of NPP in terms of the latitude, longitude, and elevation, and WUE started abruptly decreasing after an elevation >3000 m until it reached 0 at 4500 m. WUE was primarily "slightly increased" in the humid region (H) and "slightly decreased" in the semi-humid region (SH), arid and semi-arid regions (ASA), and Qinghai-Tibet plateau region (QTP). CO2 (0.34), LAI (0.60), P (0.58), and LAI (0.55) exhibited the strongest positive direct effects on WUE in H, SH, ASA, and QTP, while VPD exhibited the strongest negative direct effect. VPD (0.26), VPD (0.28), SM (0.47), and P (0.39) had the strongest positive indirect effect, while T (-0.24), T (-0.18), VPD (-0.35), and P (-0.03) had the strongest negative indirect effect on WUE. The positive contributions of WUE variations in H, SH, ASA, and QTP were dominated by T (47.96 %), CO2 (26.36 %), P (8.81 %), and CO2 (52.97 %), whereas the negative contributions were dominated by P (-7.95 %), LAI (-26.57 %), CO2 (-35.98 %), and VPD (-9.59 %), respectively. This study quantifies the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of WUE in China's karst ecosystems and the regional differences between the multiple ecohydrological factors, thereby facilitating in-depth understanding and effective regulation for the carbon and water cycles in karst ecosystems.

Complex eco-evolutionary responses of a foundational coastal marsh plant to global change

Predicting the fate of coastal marshes requires understanding how plants respond to rapid environmental change. Environmental change can elicit shifts in trait variation attributable to phenotypic plasticity and act as selective agents to shift trait means, resulting in rapid evolution. Comparably, less is known about the potential for responses to reflect the evolution of trait plasticity. Here, we assessed the relative magnitude of eco-evolutionary responses to interacting global change factors using a multifactorial experiment. We exposed replicates of 32 Schoenoplectus americanus genotypes 'resurrected' from century-long, soil-stored seed banks to ambient or elevated CO2 , varying levels of inundation, and the presence of a competing marsh grass, across two sites with different salinities. Comparisons of responses to global change factors among age cohorts and across provenances indicated that plasticity has evolved in five of the seven traits measured. Accounting for evolutionary factors (i.e. evolution and sources of heritable variation) in statistical models explained an additional 9-31% of trait variation. Our findings indicate that evolutionary factors mediate ecological responses to environmental change. The magnitude of evolutionary change in plant traits over the last century suggests that evolution could play a role in pacing future ecosystem response to environmental change.

Monitoring the evolution process of karst desertification and quantifying its drivers in the karst area of Southwest China

Karst desertification (KD) is a unique desert ecological phenomenon occurring in the karst region of Southwest China (KRSC). Studying the KD evolution process and distinguishing the influences of human activities and climate factors on KD are essential for restoring KD areas. This article is based on MODIS remote sensing data and ERA5-Land data. Additionally, multiple linear regression models, correlation analysis, and residual analysis are utilized to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of KD in the southwest region of China from 2000 to 2020. This study aims to differentiate the impacts of human activities and climate change on the desertification process in karst areas. (1) In the southwest region of China, the overall KD shows an intensifying trend at both ends of the study area and an ameliorating distribution pattern in the central region. In particular, Guizhou province, which is located in the center of the study area, demonstrated significant suppression in the KD process from 2000 to 2020. (2) In the southwest karst region, there are significant spatial differences in the correlation between the KD process and precipitation, temperature, and radiation. Temperature is significantly negatively correlated in most parts of Yunnan. (3) According to the residual analysis, approximately 89.62% of the karst areas in the southwest are influenced by climate, while 10.38% are influenced by human activities. Climate change has a relatively small impact on the ability to improve KD compared to the disruptive influence of human activities. Some human activities, such as afforestation, in which grassland and cultivated land are converted to forest, play a substantial role in inhibiting the KD process. Conversely, the rapid expansion of urban areas tends to exacerbate KD in adjacent regions. Therefore, this study of the evolution process of KD in Southwest China can provide a scientific basis for monitoring and controlling KD and provide theoretical support for coping with the challenges posed by KD to China's ecological environment.

Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis

The dynamic interplay between climate change and socioeconomic development has brought about significant changes in drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk within the global socioeconomic system. However, there is a prevailing lack of understanding about how these changes will manifest in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming. To address this knowledge gap, this study utilizes various climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic data from historical period and future projections to comprehensively map and assess the changes in global drought vulnerability and risk of population in the 2030s and 2050s under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. This study finds that the future population at risk of drought is projected to increase by 21.96 % - 25.95 % in the 2030s and 36.64 % - 45.40 % in the 2050s, driven by rapid population growth and substantial changes in drought hazard and vulnerability. This includes varying increases in drought hazard in approximately 58 % of global land area, alongside decreases in drought vulnerability in 50 % - 80 % of global land areas. Most arid and semi-arid regions, including Africa, Central Asia, West Asia, and Australia with less developed economies, are more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, leading to significant increases in future drought hazards, vulnerability, and risk, particularly under higher emission scenarios. In contrast, most humid and semi-humid regions exhibit varying degrees of drought vulnerability and risk of population across regions, despite the overall increasing drought hazard, with disproportionate impact of climate change and socioeconomic development. Specifically, projected increases in drought vulnerability and risk are observed in the Amazon, central and western U.S., while decreases are projected in the eastern part of China delimited by the Hu Line, southern India, Japan, Korea, most of Southeast Asia, northern Europe, and South America excluding the Amazon. The eastern U.S. is expected to experience reduced vulnerability but increased drought risk. This study can assist decision makers to develop targeted strategies and measures of adaptation and mitigation in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming.

Evaluation of Potential Effects of Increased Outdoor Temperatures Due to Global Warming on Cerebral Blood Flow Rate and Respiratory Function in Chronic Obstructive Disease and Anemia

Global warming due to increased outdoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may cause several health problems such as headaches, cognitive impairment, or kidney dysfunction. It is predicted that further increases in CO2 levels will increase the morbidity and mortality of patients affected by a variety of diseases. For instance, patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) may suffer cognitive impairments or intracranial bleeding due to an increased cerebral blood flow rate. Predicting the harmful effects of global warming on human health will help to take measures for potential problems. Therefore, the quantification of physiological parameters is an essential step to investigate the effects of global warming on human health. In this study, the effects of increased outdoor temperatures due to climate change on cerebral blood flow rate and respiratory function in healthy subjects and COPD patients with anemia and respiratory acidosis are evaluated utilizing numerical simulations. The numerical model simulates cardiac function and blood circulation in systemic, pulmonary and cerebral circulations, cerebral autoregulatory functions, respiratory function, alveolar gas exchange, oxygen (O2) and CO2 contents, and hemoglobin levels in the blood. The simulation results show that although the cardiovascular function is not significantly altered, the respiratory function and cerebral blood flow rates are altered remarkably.

Stable isotopes in tree rings record physiological trends in Larix gmelinii after fires

Fire is an important regulator of ecosystem dynamics in boreal forests, and especially has a complicated association with growth and physiological processes of fire-tolerant tree species. Stable isotope ratios in tree rings are used extensively in eco-physiological studies for evaluating the impact of past environmental (e.g., drought, air pollution) factors on tree growth and physiological processes. Yet, such studies based on carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope ratios in tree rings are rarely conducted on fire effect, especially not well explored for fire-tolerant trees. In this study, we investigated variations in basal area increment and isotopes of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. before and after three moderate fires (different fire years) at three sites across the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeastern China. We found that the radial growth of L. gmelinii trees has significantly declined after the fires across study sites. Following the fires, a simultaneous increase in δ13C and δ18O has strengthened the link between the two isotopes. Further, fires have significantly enhanced the 13C-derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) and largely altered the relationships between δ13C, δ18O, iWUE and climate (temperature and precipitation). A dual-isotope conceptual model revealed that an initial co-increase in δ13C and δ18O in the fire year can be mainly attributed to a reduction in stomatal conductance with a constant photosynthetic rate. However, this physiological response would shift to different patterns over post-fire time between sites, which might be partly related to spring temperature. This study is beneficial to better understand, in a physiological perspective, how fire-tolerant tree species adapt to a fire-prone environment. We also remind that the limitation of model assumptions and constraints may challenge model applicability and further inferred physiological response.

Quantification and uncertainty of root growth stimulation by elevated CO2 in a mature temperate deciduous forest

Increasing CO2 levels are a major global challenge, and the potential mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by natural carbon sinks remains poorly understood. The uptake of elevated CO2 (eCO2) by the terrestrial biosphere, and subsequent sequestration as biomass in ecosystems, remain hard to quantify in natural ecosystems. Here, we combine field observations of fine root stocks and flows, derived from belowground imaging and soil cores, with image analysis, stochastic modelling, and statistical inference, to elucidate belowground root dynamics in a mature temperate deciduous forest under free-air eCO2 to 150 ppm above ambient levels. eCO2 led to relatively faster root production (a peak volume fold change of 4.52 ± 0.44 eCO2 versus 2.58 ± 0.21 control), with increased root elongation relative to decay the likely causal mechanism for this acceleration. Physical analysis of 552 root systems from soil cores support this picture, with lengths and widths of fine roots significantly increasing under eCO2. Estimated fine root contributions to belowground net primary productivity increase under eCO2 (mean annual 204 ± 93 g dw m-2 yr-1 eCO2 versus 140 ± 60 g dw m-2 yr-1 control). This multi-faceted approach thus sheds quantitative light on the challenging characterisation of the eCO2 response of root biomass in mature temperate forests.

Native microbiomes in danger: Could One Health help to cope with this threat to global health?

Planetary health faces an emergency associated with global change. Climate change, the increase in world population and urban concentration, the hyperintensification of productive systems, and the associated changes in land use, among other factors, are generating a risky substrate for global health deterioration. The emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is an example of the problems that this situation can provoke. Several researchers and health professionals have addressed the role of microorganisms, particularly bacteria, in promoting global health, mainly in the past decades. However, global changes have contributed to the extinction of a wide array of bacterial species and the disruption of microbial communities that support the homeostasis of humans, animals, and the environment. The need to protect the diversity and richness of native microbiomes in biotic and abiotic environments is crucial but has been frequently underestimated. The "One Health" approach, based on integrating traditionally unconnected fields such as human, animal, and environmental health, could provide a helpful framework to face this challenge. Anyway, drastic political decisions will be needed to tackle this global health crisis, in which the preservation of native microbial resources plays a critical role, even in preventing the risk of a new pandemic. This review aims to explain the importance of native microbiomes in biotic and abiotic ecosystems and the need to consider bacterial extinction as a crucial problem that could be addressed under a One Health approach.

Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China

Drought seriously restricts people’s lives and social–economic development. An accurate understanding of the evolution of drought characteristics and future changes in cultivated land exposure can reduce the risk of drought. There is evidence that increased CO2 concentrations alter the physiological properties of vegetation and, thus, affect drought evolution. In this study, both changes and differences in drought (i.e., characteristics and cropland exposure) with and without the CO2 effect over the arid region of China are investigated, using seven CMIP6 outputs and land-use under seven shared-socioeconomic-pathway (SSP)-based scenarios. The results show that: (1) drier conditions will be more severe in 2015–2100 under SSP5-8.5, especially if the CO2 effect is neglected. Moreover, the CO2 effect will increase with increasing emission concentrations; (2) drought intensity will be greater than in the baseline period (1995–2014, approximately −1.45) but weaker than that without the CO2 effect under all scenarios; (3) drought frequency will decrease, and will generally decline faster if the CO2 effect is not considered; (4) drought duration will increase and the difference between the presence and absence of the CO2 effect will always be smallest under SSP1-1.9 and largest under SSP5-8.5; (5) drought acreage will also increase, and neglecting the CO2 effect is always higher than that considering CO2. The difference between the two algorithms will increase with time; and (6) cropland exposure to drought will increase, and can even reach 669,000 km2 and 524,000 km2 considering and ignoring the CO2 effect, respectively. Our findings suggest that ignoring CO2 in drought evaluations will result in significant overestimations of drought projections.