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Stockbridge J, Jones AR, Brown CJ, Doubell MJ, Gillanders BM. Incorporating stressor interactions into spatially explicit cumulative impact assessments. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024:e3056. [PMID: 39564740 DOI: 10.1002/eap.3056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Revised: 06/06/2024] [Accepted: 08/14/2024] [Indexed: 11/21/2024]
Abstract
Human-induced stressors are impacting the oceans and reducing the biodiversity of marine ecosystems. The many stressors affecting marine environments do not act in isolation. However, their cumulative impact is difficult to predict. Most of the available methods for quantifying cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems sum the impact of individual stressors to estimate cumulative impact. We demonstrate how experimental evidence from interacting stressors can be accounted for in cumulative impact assessments. We adapted a widely used additive model to incorporate nonadditive stressor interactions into a marine spatially explicit cumulative impact assessment for seagrasses. We combined experimental data on the impact of multiple stressors with spatial data on stressor intensity to test whether stressor interactions impact seagrasses in a case study region in South Australia. We also assessed how uncertainty about cumulative impacts changes when uncertainty in stressor interactions is included in the impact mapping. The results from an additive spatial cumulative impact assessment model were compared with results from the model incorporating interactions. Cumulative effects from the interaction model were more variable than those produced by the additive model. Five of the 15 stressor interactions that we tested produced impacts that significantly deviated from those predicted by an additive model. Areas of our study region that showed the largest discrepancies between the additive and interactive outputs were also associated with higher uncertainty. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of stressor interactions changes the pattern and intensity of modeled spatial cumulative impact. Additive models have the potential to misrepresent cumulative impact intensity and do not provide the opportunity for targeted mitigation measures when managing the interactive effects of stressors. Appropriate inclusion of interacting stressor data may have implications for the identification of key stressors and the subsequent spatial planning and management of marine ecosystems and biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jackson Stockbridge
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute, Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Alice R Jones
- School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute, Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Christopher J Brown
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Taroona, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Mark J Doubell
- Aquatic and Livestock Sciences, South Australian Research and Development Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Bronwyn M Gillanders
- School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute, Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
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Rees MJ, Knott NA, Astles KL, Swadling DS, West GJ, Ferguson AM, Delamont J, Gibson PT, Neilson J, Birch GF, Glasby TM. Cumulative effects of multiple stressors impact an endangered seagrass population and fish communities. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 904:166706. [PMID: 37659560 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/04/2023]
Abstract
Coastal ecosystems are becoming increasingly threatened by human activities and there is growing appreciation that management must consider the impacts of multiple stressors. Cumulative effects assessments (CEAs) have become a popular tool for identifying the distribution and intensity of multiple human stressors in coastal ecosystems. Few studies, however, have demonstrated strong correlations between CEAs and change in ecosystem condition, questioning its management use. Here, we apply a CEA to the endangered seagrass Posidonia australis in Pittwater, NSW, Australia, using spatial data on known stressors to seagrass related to foreshore development, water quality, vessel traffic and fishing. We tested how well cumulative effects scores explained changes in P. australis extent measured between 2005 and 2019 using high-resolution aerial imagery. A negative correlation between P. australis and estimated cumulative effects scores was observed (R2 = 22 %), and we identified a threshold of cumulative effects above which losses of P. australis became more likely. Using baited remote underwater video, we surveyed fishes over P. australis and non-vegetated sediments to infer and quantify how impacts of cumulative effects to P. australis extent would flow on to fish assemblages. P. australis contained a distinct assemblage of fish, and on non-vegetated sediments the abundance of sparids, which are of importance to fisheries, increased with closer proximity to P. australis. Our results demonstrate the negative impact of multiple stressors on P. australis and the consequences for fish biodiversity and fisheries production across much of the estuary. Management actions aimed at reducing or limiting cumulative effects to low and moderate levels will help conserve P. australis and its associated fish biodiversity and productivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Rees
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Marine Ecosystems, Fisheries Research, 4 Woollamia Road, Huskisson, NSW, 2540, Australia.
| | - Nathan A Knott
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Marine Ecosystems, Fisheries Research, 4 Woollamia Road, Huskisson, NSW, 2540, Australia
| | - Karen L Astles
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Fisheries Research, P.O. Box 5106, Wollongong 2520, Australia
| | - Daniel S Swadling
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Port Stephens Fisheries Institute, Locked Bag 1, New South Wales, 2315 Nelson Bay, Australia
| | - Greg J West
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Port Stephens Fisheries Institute, Locked Bag 1, New South Wales, 2315 Nelson Bay, Australia
| | - Adrian M Ferguson
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Marine Ecosystems, Fisheries Research, 4 Woollamia Road, Huskisson, NSW, 2540, Australia
| | - Jason Delamont
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Marine Ecosystems, Fisheries Research, 4 Woollamia Road, Huskisson, NSW, 2540, Australia
| | - Peter T Gibson
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Port Stephens Fisheries Institute, Locked Bag 1, New South Wales, 2315 Nelson Bay, Australia
| | - Joseph Neilson
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Port Stephens Fisheries Institute, Locked Bag 1, New South Wales, 2315 Nelson Bay, Australia
| | - Gavin F Birch
- Geocoastal Research Group, School of Geosciences, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia
| | - Tim M Glasby
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Port Stephens Fisheries Institute, Locked Bag 1, New South Wales, 2315 Nelson Bay, Australia
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Vaher A, Kotta J, Szava-Kovats R, Kaasik A, Fetissov M, Aps R, Kõivupuu A. Assessing cumulative impacts of human-induced pressures on reef and sandbank habitats and associated biotopes in the northeastern Baltic Sea. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2022; 183:114042. [PMID: 35998526 PMCID: PMC9551195 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2021] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Marine ecosystems are impacted by multiple individual and combined anthropogenic pressures. We used meta-analysis and data-driven PlanWise4Blue decision support tool to predict individual and combined impacts of wind park development, nutrient loading, and invasive species on vulnerable reef and sandbank habitats and associated species-specific biotopes in the northeastern Baltic Sea. Many impacts were not statistically significant due to large between-study variance in effect sizes. Wind park development is predicted to have less impact than nutrient loading and invasive species. Predicted impacts varied greatly among larger-scale habitats versus smaller-scale biotopes with impacts being generally stronger at small scale. Excessive nutrient loading damages algae-based biotopes, the presence of nonnative species has substantial negative impacts on larger-scale reef and sandbank habitats. The results showed that a 25 % reduction of nutrient loading improves all examined benthic habitats, whereas nonnative species, which cannot be removed from ecosystems, pose a significant threat to these habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annaleena Vaher
- University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Harjumaa, Estonia.
| | - Jonne Kotta
- University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Harjumaa, Estonia
| | | | - Ants Kaasik
- University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Harjumaa, Estonia
| | - Mihhail Fetissov
- University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Harjumaa, Estonia
| | - Robert Aps
- University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Harjumaa, Estonia
| | - Anneliis Kõivupuu
- University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Harjumaa, Estonia
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Korpinen S, Laamanen L, Bergström L, Nurmi M, Andersen JH, Haapaniemi J, Harvey ET, Murray CJ, Peterlin M, Kallenbach E, Klančnik K, Stein U, Tunesi L, Vaughan D, Reker J. Combined effects of human pressures on Europe's marine ecosystems. AMBIO 2021; 50:1325-1336. [PMID: 33507497 PMCID: PMC8116428 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01482-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2020] [Revised: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 12/14/2020] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Marine ecosystems are under high demand for human use, giving concerns about how pressures from human activities may affect their structure, function, and status. In Europe, recent developments in mapping of marine habitats and human activities now enable a coherent spatial evaluation of potential combined effects of human activities. Results indicate that combined effects from multiple human pressures are spread to 96% of the European marine area, and more specifically that combined effects from physical disturbance are spread to 86% of the coastal area and 46% of the shelf area. We compare our approach with corresponding assessments at other spatial scales and validate our results with European-scale status assessments for coastal waters. Uncertainties and development points are identified. Still, the results suggest that Europe's seas are widely disturbed, indicating potential discrepancy between ambitions for Blue Growth and the objective of achieving good environmental status within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuli Korpinen
- Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Leena Laamanen
- Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Lena Bergström
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Marco Nurmi
- Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Katja Klančnik
- Institute for Water of the Republic of Slovenia (IZVRS), Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | | | - Leonardo Tunesi
- Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Rome, Italy
| | - David Vaughan
- Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), Peterborough, UK
| | - Johnny Reker
- European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark
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Andersen JH, Al-Hamdani Z, Harvey ET, Kallenbach E, Murray C, Stock A. Relative impacts of multiple human stressors in estuaries and coastal waters in the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition zone. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 704:135316. [PMID: 31896214 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2019] [Revised: 10/28/2019] [Accepted: 10/29/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The objectives of this study are 1) to map the potential cumulative impacts of multiple human activities and stressors on the ecosystems in the transition zone between the North Sea and Baltic Sea, for Danish waters 2) to analyse differences in stressor contribution between the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, off-shore waters) and Water Framework Directive (WFD, coastal waters), and 3) to assess the local relative importance of stressors for 14 areas along a land-sea gradient, from inner fjords or coastal areas to offshore waters. The mapping of cumulative impacts is anchored in 35 datasets describing a broad range of human stressors and 47 ecosystem components ranging from phytoplankton over benthic communities to fish, seabirds and marine mammals, which we combined by means of a widely used spatial human impact model. Ranking of the stressor impacts for the entire study area revealed that the top five stressors are: 'Nutrients', 'Climate anomalies', 'Non-indigenous species', 'Noise' and 'Contaminants'. The gradient studies showed that some stressors (e.g. 'Nutrients', 'Shipping' and 'Physical modification') have a relatively higher impact within the fjord/estuarine systems whilst others (e.g. 'Fisheries', 'Contaminants' and 'Noise') have relatively higher impact in the open waters. Beyond mapping of cumulative human impacts, we discuss how the maps can be used as an analytical tool to inform ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning, using the MSFD and WFD as examples.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Zyad Al-Hamdani
- Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | | | | | - Andy Stock
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA
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Fulton EA, Blanchard JL, Melbourne-Thomas J, Plagányi ÉE, Tulloch VJD. Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective. Front Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
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Stock A, Crowder LB, Halpern BS, Micheli F. Uncertainty analysis and robust areas of high and low modeled human impact on the global oceans. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2018; 32:1368-1379. [PMID: 29797608 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2017] [Revised: 05/14/2018] [Accepted: 05/21/2018] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high-impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low-impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad-scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human-impact maps, they can-at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information-point to priority areas for research and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andy Stock
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, U.S.A
| | - Larry B Crowder
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, U.S.A
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Monterey, CA 93940, U.S.A
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, U.S.A
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, U.S.A
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, U.S.A
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 7PY, U.K
| | - Fiorenza Micheli
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, U.S.A
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Monterey, CA 93940, U.S.A
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, U.S.A
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