Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Framing future trajectories of human activities in the German North Sea to inform cumulative effects assessments and marine spatial planning

The global industrialization of seascapes and climate change leads to an increased risk of severe impacts on marine ecosystem functioning. While broad scale spatio-temporal assessments of human pressures on marine ecosystems become more available, future trajectories of human activities at regional and local scales remain often speculative. Here we introduce a stepwise process to integrate bottom-up and expert-driven approaches for scenario development to inform cumulative effects assessments and related marine spatial planning (MSP). Following this guidance, we developed optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios for major human pressures in the German North Sea such as bottom trawling, offshore wind, nutrient discharge, and aggregate extraction. The forecasts comprise quantitative estimates in relation to spatial footprint, intensity, and technological advancements of those pressures for the years 2030 and 2060. Using network analyses, we assessed interactions of the current and future trajectories of pressures thereby accounting for climate change and the growing need for marine conservation. Our results show that future scenarios of spatial distributions could be developed for activities that are spatially refined and included in the current MSP process. Further our detailed analyses of interdependencies of development components revealed that forecasts regarding specific targets and intensities of human activities depend also strongly on future technological advances. For fisheries and nutrient discharge estimates were less certain due to critical socio-ecological interactions in the marine and terrestrial realm. Overall, our approach unraveled such trade-offs and sources of uncertainties. Yet, our quantitative predictive scenarios were built under a sustainability narrative on a profound knowledge of interactions with other sectors and components in and outside the management boundaries. We advocate that they enable a better preparedness for future changes of cumulative pressure on marine ecosystems.

Filling the data gaps: Transferring models from data-rich to data-poor deep-sea areas to support spatial management

Spatial management of the deep sea is challenging due to limited available data on the distribution of species and habitats to support decision making. In the well-studied North Atlantic, predictive models of species distribution and habitat suitability have been used to fill data gaps and support sustainable management. In the South Atlantic and other poorly studied regions, this is not possible due to a massive lack of data. In this study, we investigated whether models constructed in data-rich areas can be used to inform data-poor regions (with otherwise similar environmental conditions). We used a novel model transfer approach to identify to what extent a habitat suitability model for Desmophyllum pertusum reef, built in a data-rich basin (North Atlantic), could be transferred usefully to a data-poor basin (South Atlantic). The transferred model was built using the Maximum Entropy algorithm and constructed with 227 presence and 3064 pseudo-absence points, and 200 m resolution environmental grids. Performance in the transferred region was validated using an independent dataset of D. pertusum presences and absences, with assessments made using both threshold-dependent and -independent metrics. We found that a model for D. pertusum reef fitted to North Atlantic data transferred reasonably well to the South Atlantic basin, with an area under the curve of 0.70. Suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef was predicted on 20 of the assessed 27 features including seamounts. Nationally managed Marine Protected Areas provide significant protection for D. pertusum reef habitat in the region, affording full protection from bottom trawling to 14 of the 20 suitable features. In areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), we found four seamounts that provided suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef to be at least partially protected from bottom trawling, whilst two did not fall within fisheries closures. There are factors to consider when developing models for transfer including data resolution and predictor type. Nevertheless, the promising results of this application demonstrate that model transfer approaches stand to provide significant contributions to spatial planning processes through provision of new, best available data. This is particularly true for ABNJ and areas that have previously undergone little scientific exploration such as the global south.

Marine spatial planning to solve increasing conflicts at sea: A framework for prioritizing offshore windfarms and marine protected areas

Direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems are expected to lower the provided ecosystem services (ES) in the near future. To limit these impacts, protected areas will be implemented as part of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Simultaneously, as an answer to climate change, renewable energies are being rapidly developed on a worldwide scale, leading to a significant increase in space use in the coming decades. Sharing space is an increasingly complex task, especially because of the high rate of emergence of such competitors for space. In fisheries-dominated socio-ecosystems, acceptability of offshore windfarms (OWFs) and marine protected areas (MPAs) is usually very low, partly due to an underrepresentation of fisheries in spatial plans and poor attention to equity in the spatial distribution of restrictive areas. Here we developed a framework with a marine spatial planning case study in the Bay of Biscay represented by the socio-ecosystem of the Grande Vasière, a mid-shelf mud belt spanning over 21,000 km². We collected biological, environmental, and anthropogenic data to model the distribution of 62 bentho-demersal species, 7 regulating ES layers related to nutrient cycling, life cycle maintenance and food web functioning, as well as provisioning ES of 18 commercial species and 82 fisheries subdivisions. We used these spatial layers and a prioritization algorithm to explore siting scenarios of OWFs and two types of MPAs (benthic and total protection), aimed at conserving species, regulating and provisioning ES, while also ensuring that fisheries are equitably impacted. We demonstrate that equitable scenarios are not necessarily costlier and provide alternative spatial prioritizations. We emphasize the importance of exploring multiple targets with a Shiny app to visualize results and stimulate dialogue among stakeholders and policymakers. Overall, we show how our flexible, inclusive framework with particular attention to equity could be an ideal discussion tool to improve management practices.

Comparing spatial management tools to protect highly migratory shark species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea hot spots

Bycatch of non-target species is a pressing problem for ocean management. It is one of the most concerning issues related to human-wildlife interactions and it affects numerous species including sharks, seabirds, sea turtles, and many critically endangered marine mammals. This paper compares different policy tools for ocean closure management around a unique shark aggregation site in Israel's nearshore coastal waters. We provide a set of recommendations based on an optimal management approach that allows humans to enjoy marine recreational activities such as fishing, while maintaining safe conditions for these apex predators which are vital to the local marine ecosystem. To learn more about recreational fishers' derived benefits, we use a benefit transfer method. Our main conclusion is that dynamic time-area closures offer sustainable and effective management strategies. Since these closures are based on near real-time data, they might successfully preserve specific species in limited areas (i.e., small areas).

Behavioral responses to offshore windfarms during migration of a declining shorebird species revealed by GPS-telemetry

EU member countries and the UK are currently installing numerous offshore windfarms (OWFs) in the Baltic and North Seas to achieve decarbonization of their energy systems. OWFs may have adverse effects on birds; however, estimates of collision risks and barrier effects for migratory species are notably lacking, but are essential to inform marine spatial planning. We therefore compiled an international dataset consisting of 259 migration tracks for 143 Global Positioning System-tagged Eurasian curlews (Numenius arquata arquata) from seven European countries recorded over 6 years, to assess individual response behaviors when approaching OWFs in the North and Baltic Seas at two different spatial scales (i.e. up to 3.5 km and up to 30 km distance). Generalized additive mixed models revealed a significant small-scale increase in flight altitudes, which was strongest at 0-500 m from the OWF and which was more pronounced during autumn than during spring, due to higher proportions of time spent migrating at rotor level. Furthermore, four different small-scale integrated step selection models consistently detected horizontal avoidance responses in about 70% of approaching curlews, which was strongest at approximately 450 m from the OWFs. No distinct, large-scale avoidance effects were observed on the horizontal plane, although they could possibly have been confounded by changes in flight altitudes close to land. Overall, 28.8% of the flight tracks crossed OWFs at least once during migration. Flight altitudes within the OWFs overlapped with the rotor level to a high degree in autumn (50%) but to a significantly lesser extent in spring (18.5%). Approximately 15.8% and 5.8% of the entire curlew population were estimated to be at increased risk during autumn and spring migration, respectively. Our data clearly show strong small-scale avoidance responses, which are likely to reduce collision risk, but simultaneously highlight the substantial barrier effect of OWFs for migrating species. Although alterations in flight paths of curlews due to OWFs seem to be moderate with respect to the overall migration route, there is an urgent need to quantify the respective energetic costs, given the massive ongoing construction of OWFs in both sea areas.

Mapping and assessing seagrass meadows changes and blue carbon under past, current, and future scenarios

Seagrasses store large amounts of blue carbon and mitigate climate change, but they have suffered strong regressions worldwide in recent decades. Blue carbon assessments may support their conservation. However, existing blue carbon maps are still scarce and focused on certain seagrass species, such as the iconic genus Posidonia, and intertidal and very shallow seagrasses (<10 m depth), while deep-water and opportunistic seagrasses have remained understudied. This study filled this gap by mapping and assessing blue carbon storage and sequestration by the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa in the Canarian archipelago using the local carbon storage capacity and high spatial resolution (20 m/pixel) seagrass distribution maps for the years 2000 and 2018. Particularly, we mapped and assessed the past, current and future capacity of C. nodosa to store blue carbon, according to four plausible future scenarios, and valued the economic implications of these scenarios. Our results showed that C. nodosa has suffered ca. 50 % area loss in the last two decades, and, if the current degradation rate continues, our estimations demonstrate that it could completely disappear in 2036 ("Collapse scenario"). The impact of these losses in 2050 would reach 1.43 MT of CO₂ equivalent emitted with a cost of 126.3 million € (0.32 % of the current Canary GDP). If, however, this degradation is slow down, between 0.11 and 0.57 MT of CO₂ equivalent would be emitted until 2050 ("Intermediate" and "Business-as-usual" scenarios, respectively), which corresponds to a social cost of 3.63 and 44.81 million €, respectively. If the current seagrass extension is maintained ("No Net Loss"), 0.75 MT of CO₂ equivalent would be sequestered from now to 2050, which corresponds to a social cost saving of 73.59 million €. The reproducibility of our methodology across coastal ecosystems underpinned by marine vegetation provides a key tool for decision-making and conservation of these habitats.

The challenge of setting restoration targets for macroalgal forests under climate changes

The process of site selection and spatial planning has received scarce attention in the scientific literature dealing with marine restoration, suggesting the need to better address how spatial planning tools could guide restoration interventions. In this study, for the first time, the consequences of adopting different restoration targets and criteria on spatial restoration prioritization have been assessed at a regional scale, including the consideration of climate changes. We applied the decision-support tool Marxan, widely used in systematic conservation planning on Mediterranean macroalgal forests. The loss of this habitat has been largely documented, with limited evidences of natural recovery. Spatial priorities were identified under six planning scenarios, considering three main restoration targets to reflect the objectives of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. Results show that the number of suitable sites for restoration is very limited at basin scale, and targets are only achieved when the recovery of 10% of regressing and extinct macroalgal forests is planned. Increasing targets translates into including unsuitable areas for restoration in Marxan solutions, amplifying the risk of ineffective interventions. Our analysis supports macroalgal forests restoration and provides guiding principles and criteria to strengthen the effectiveness of restoration actions across habitats. The constraints in finding suitable areas for restoration are discussed, and recommendations to guide planning to support future restoration interventions are also included.

Quantifying Spatio-temporal risk of Harmful Algal Blooms and their impacts on bivalve shellfish mariculture using a data-driven modelling approach

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) intoxicate and asphyxiate marine life, causing devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts, costing at least $8bn/yr globally. Accumulation of phycotoxins from HAB phytoplankton in filter-feeding shellfish can poison human consumers, prompting harvesting closures at shellfish production sites. To quantify long-term intoxication risk from Dinophysis HAB species, we used historical HAB monitoring data (2009-2020) to develop a new modelling approach to predict Dinophysis toxin concentrations in a range of bivalve shellfish species at shellfish sites in Western Scotland, South-West England and Northern France. A spatiotemporal statistical modelling framework was developed within the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) framework to quantify long-term HAB risks for different bivalve shellfish species across each region, capturing seasonal variations, and spatiotemporal interactions. In all regions spatial functions were most important for predicting seasonal HAB risk, offering the potential to inform optimal siting of new shellfish operations and safe harvesting periods for businesses. A 10-fold cross-validation experiment was carried out for each region, to test the models' ability to predict toxin risk at harvesting locations for which data were withheld from the model. Performance was assessed by comparing ranked predicted and observed mean toxin levels at each site within each region: the correlation of ranks was 0.78 for Northern France, 0.64 for Western Scotland, and 0.34 for South-West England, indicating our approach has promise for predicting unknown HAB risk, depending on the region and suitability of training data.

Participatory process for marine spatial planning: perception of Mar del Plata's residents on offshore hydrocarbon exploration in the North Argentina Basin (Argentina)

Offshore hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation are activities developed internationally in the advance of the energy industry. Conflicts generated by incompatibility with others or with social actors, make the approach from Marine Spatial Planning necessary. In Argentina, although it is a process that has been developing since the middle of the 20th century, it was not until 2014 when the National Government promoted the activity. The North Argentine Basin (NAB) constitutes a hydrocarbon exploration area that was delimited in 2018 by Resolution 65/2018. This activity in the NAB has given rise to conflicts between intervening social actors, which was manifested in the Public Hearing (AP1/21) held in July 2021. That is why the objective of this work was to analyze the results of the AP1/21 and contrast them with the opinion of Mar del Plata's residents. For this, 682 semi-open surveys were carried out, where they were asked about the activity and the AP1/21. As a result, it was obtained that 373 people were expressed in favor (4%) and against (96%) of the project. Topics such as climate change, energy planning, and disagreement with the steps of the participatory process and the environmental impact study were presented. In the case of the surveys, opinions similar to those expressed in the audience were found, corroborating results and conclusions between both processes. In summary, the work allowed us to know not only the opinion of Mar del Plata's population but also the type of information available on the economic activity analyzed.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11852-022-00896-x.

Integrating functional traits into correlative species distribution models to investigate the vulnerability of marine human activities to climate change

Climate change and particularly warming are significantly impacting marine ecosystems and the services they provided. Temperature, as the main factor driving all biological processes, may influence ectotherms metabolism, thermal tolerance limits and distribution species patterns. The joining action of climate change and local stressors (including the increasing human marine use) may facilitate the spread of non-indigenous and native outbreak forming species, leading to associated economic consequences for marine coastal economies. Marine aquaculture is one among the most economic anthropogenic activities threatened by multiple stressors and in turn, by increasing hard artificial substrates at sea would facilitate the expansion of these problematic organisms and face negative consequences regarding facilities management and farmed organisms' welfare. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are considered powerful tools for forecasting the future occurrences and distributions of problematic species used to preventively aware stakeholders. In the current study, we propose the use of combined correlative SDMs and mechanistic models, based on individual thermal performance curve models calculated through non-linear least squares regression and Bayesian statistics (functional-SDM), as an ecological relevant tool to increase our ability to investigate the potential indirect effect of climate change on the distributions of harmful species for human activities at sea, taking aquaculture as a food productive example and the benthic cnidarian Pennaria disticha (one of the most pernicious fouling species in aquaculture) as model species. Our combined approach was able to improve the prediction ability of both mechanistic and correlative models to get more ecologically informed "whole" niche of the studied species. Incorporating the mechanistic links between the organisms' functional traits and their environments into SDMs through the use of a Bayesian functional-SDM approach would be a useful and reliable tool in early warning ecological systems, risk assessment and management actions focused on important economic activities and natural ecosystems conservation.

A novel marine spatial management tool for multiple conflicts recognition and optimization of marine functional zoning in the East China sea

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is to manage incompatible functional use for achieving spatial homogeneity in sea. However most MSP strategies focus on single-target sea use demand ignoring multiple-conflicts of different demands. Thus, this study develops a spatial management model and quantitatively recognizes two types of spatial conflicts among eight sea use functions in the Zhejiang coasts, China. Under the simulation of three different management scenarios including independent, joint and overall-value managements respectively, we further propose a conflict optimization scheme in the scenarios of sea uses with different intensities, different types of sea use combinations, and different site selection. Most importantly, this study demonstrates the spatial management model is a powerful and efficient tool for spatial multiple-conflicts trade-off and matching sea use demands under the practical approach of marine functional zoning (MFC) in China.

Evaluation of a popular spatial cumulative impact assessment method for marine systems: A seagrass case study

Human activities put stress on our oceans and with a growing global population, the impact is increasing. Stressors rarely act in isolation, with the majority of marine areas being impacted by multiple, concurrent stressors. Marine spatial cumulative impact assessments attempt to estimate the collective impact of multiple stressors on marine environments. However, this is difficult given how stressors interact with one another, and the variable response of ecosystems. As a result, assumptions and generalisations are required when attempting to model cumulative impacts. One fundamental assumption of the most commonly applied, semi-quantitative cumulative impact assessment method is that a change in modelled cumulative impact is correlated with a change in ecosystem condition. However, this assumption has rarely been validated with empirical data. We tested this assumption using a case study of seagrass in a large, inverse estuary in South Australia (Spencer Gulf). We compared three different seagrass condition indices, based on survey data collected in the field, to scores from a spatial cumulative impact model for the study area. One condition index showed no relationship with cumulative impact, whilst the other two indices had very small, negative relationships with cumulative impact. These results suggest that one of the most commonly used methods for assessing cumulative impacts on marine systems is not robust enough to accurately reflect the effect of multiple stressors on seagrasses; possibly due to the number and generality of assumptions involved in the approach. Future methods should acknowledge the complex relationships between stressors, and the impact these relationships can have on ecosystems. This outcome highlights the need for greater evaluation of cumulative impact assessment outputs and the need for data-driven approaches. Our results are a caution for marine scientists and resource managers who may rely on spatial cumulative impact assessment outputs for informing policy and decision-making.

Sustainable co-location solutions for offshore wind farms and fisheries need to account for socio-ecological trade-offs

The spatial expansion of offshore wind farms (OWFs) is key for the transition to a carbon free energy sector. In the North Sea, the sprawl of OWFs is regulated by marine spatial planning (MSP) and results in an increasing loss of space for other sectors such as fisheries. Understanding fisheries benefits of OWFs and mitigating the loss of fishing grounds is key for co-location solutions in MSP. For the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea we conducted a novel socio-ecological assessment of fisheries benefits which combines exploring potential spill-over from an OWF with an experimental brown crab (Cancer pagurus) pot fishery and an economic viability analysis of such a fishery. We arrayed a total of 205 baited pots along transects from an OWF located near the island of Helgoland. After a soaking time of 24 h we retrieved the pots and measured the carapace width (mm), weight (g), and sex of each individual crab. To conclude on cumulative spill-over potentials from all OWFs in the German EEZ and drivers of passive gear fisheries we analysed vessel monitoring system (VMS)-data and computed random forest regressions. Local spill-over mechanisms occurred up to distances of 300 to 500 m to the nearest turbines and revealed an increasing attraction of pot fishing activities to particular OWFs. This corresponds to the observation of constantly increasing fishing effort targeting brown crab likely due to both a growing international demand and stable resource populations at suitable habitats, including OWFs. Our break-even scenarios showed that beam trawlers have the capacities to conduct during summer an opportunistic but economically viable pot fishery. We argue that particularly in the North Sea, where space becomes limited, integrated assessments of the wider environmental and socio-economic effects of planning are crucial for a sustainable co-location of OWFs and fisheries.

Synthesis and evaluation of coastal and marine biodiversity spatial information in the United Arab Emirates for ecosystem-based management

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) host valuable coastal and marine biodiversity that is subjected to multiple pressures under extreme conditions. To mitigate impacts on marine ecosystems, the UAE protects almost 12% of its Exclusive Economic Zone. This study mapped and validated the distribution of key coastal and marine habitats, species and critical areas for their life cycle in the Gulf area of the UAE. We identified gaps in the current protection of these ecological features and assessed the quality of the data used. The overall dataset showed good data quality, but deficiencies in information for the coastline of the north-western emirates. The existing protected areas are inadequate to safeguard key ecological features such as mangroves and coastal lagoons. This study offers a solid basis to understand the spatial distribution and protection of marine biodiversity in the UAE. This information should be considered for implementing effective conservation planning and ecosystem-based management.

Managing multiple pressures for cetaceans' conservation with an Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning approach

Despite the recognized important ecological role that cetaceans play in the marine environment, their protection is still scarcely enforced in the Mediterranean Sea even though this area is strongly threatened by local human pressures and climate change. The piecemeal of knowledge related to cetaceans' ecology and distribution in the basin undermines the capacity of addressing cetaceans' protection and identifying effective conservation strategies. In this study, an Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning (EB-MSP) approach is applied to assess human pressures on cetaceans and guide the designation of a conservation area in the Gulf of Taranto, Northern Ionian Sea (Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea). The Gulf of Taranto hosts different cetacean species that accomplish important phases of their life in the area. Despite this fact, the gulf does not fall within any area-based management tools (ABMTs) for cetacean conservation. We pin down the Gulf of Taranto being eligible for the designation of diverse ABMTs for conservation, both legally and non-legally binding. Through a risk-based approach, this study explores the cause-effect relationships that link any human activities and pressures exerted in the study area to potential effects on cetaceans, by identifying major drivers of potential impacts. These were found to be underwater noise, marine litter, ship collision, and competition and disturbance on preys. We draw some recommendations based on different sources of available knowledge produced so far in the area (i.e., empirical evidence, scientific and grey literature, and expert judgement) to boost cetaceans' conservation. Finally, we stress the need of sectoral coordination for the management of human activities by applying an EB-MSP approach and valuing the establishment of an ABMT in the Gulf of Taranto.

Fishing within offshore wind farms in the North Sea: Stakeholder perspectives for multi-use from Scotland and Germany

Offshore wind power generation requires large areas of sea to accommodate its activities, with increasing claims for exclusive access. As a result, pressure is placed on other established maritime uses, such as commercial fisheries. The latter sector has often been taking a back seat in the thrust to move energy production offshore, thus leading to disagreements and conflicts among the different stakeholder groups. In recognition of the latter, there has been a growing international interest in exploring the combination of multiple maritime activities in the same area (multi-use; MU), including the re-instatement of fishing activities within, or in close proximity to, offshore wind farms (OWFs). We summarise local stakeholder perspectives from two sub-national case studies (East coast of Scotland and Germany's North Sea EEZ) to scope the feasibility of combining multiple uses of the sea, such as offshore wind farms and commercial fisheries. We combined a desk-based review with 15 semi-structured qualitative interviews with key knowledge holders from both industries, regulators, and academia to aggregate key results. Drivers, barriers and resulting effects (positive and negative) for potential multi-use of fisheries and OWFs are listed and ranked (57 factors in total). Factors are of economic, social, policy, legal, and technical nature. To date, in both case study areas, the offshore wind industry has shown little interest in multi-use solutions, unless clear added value is demonstrated and no risks to their operations are involved. In contrast, the commercial fishing sector is proactive towards multi-use projects and acts as a driving force for MU developments. We provide a range of management recommendations, based on stakeholder input, to support progress towards robust decision making in relation to multi-use solutions, including required policy and regulatory framework improvements, good practice guidance, empirical studies, capacity building of stakeholders and improvements of the consultation process. Our findings represent a comprehensive depiction of the current state and key stakeholder aspirations for multi-use solutions combining fisheries and OWFs. We believe that the pathways towards robust decision making in relation to multi-use solutions suggested here are transferable to other international locations.

Evaluation of marine spatial planning requires fit for purpose monitoring strategies

Marine spatial planning (MSP) has rapidly become the most widely used integrated, place-based management approach in the marine environment. Monitoring and evaluation of MSP is key to inform best practices, adaptive management and plan iteration. While standardised evaluation frameworks cannot be readily applied, accounting for evaluation essentials such as the definition of evaluation objectives, indicators and stakeholder engagement of stakeholders is a prerequisite for meaningful evaluation outcomes. By way of a literature review and eleven practical MSP case studies, we analysed present day trends in evaluation approaches and unravelled the adoption of evaluation essentials for three categories for monitoring and evaluation for plan making, plan outcomes, and policy implementation. We found that at a global scale the focus of MSP evaluation has shifted over the past decade from evaluating predominantly plan outcomes towards the evaluation of plan making. Independent of the scope of the evaluation, evaluation approaches varied greatly from formal and structured processes, building for instance on MSP goals and objectives, to informal processes based on stakeholder interviews. We noted a trend in the adoption of formalised approaches where MSP evaluations have increasingly become linked to MSP policy goals and objectives. However, the enhanced use of MSP objectives and indicators did not result in a more straightforward reporting of outcomes, e.g. such as the achievement of specific MSP objectives. Overall, we found weak linkages between defined MSP objectives, indicators and available monitoring data. While the apparent shift towards a focus on objectives is promising, we highlight the need of fit-for-purpose monitoring data to enable effective evaluation of those objectives. Hence, effective MSP and adaptive management processes require customised and concurrent monitoring and evaluation strategies and procedures. We argue that evaluation processes would also benefit from a better understanding of the general environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural effects of MSP. Therefore, to understand better environmental effects of MSP, we praise that forthcoming MSP processes need to deepen the understanding and considerations of cause-effect pathways between human activities and changes of ecosystem state through the adoption of targeted cumulative effects assessments.

Marine Spatial Planning in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) in the south-east Atlantic covers the territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ's) of Angola and Namibia and partly of South Africa. Increasing demands, user-user and user-environment conflicts occur throughout the area. The three countries, which are parties to the Benguela Current Convention (BCC), have begun to implement Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) to support the sustainable development of the area and enhance ocean governance. This makes the region one of the first in a developing economies context and on the African continent to introduce MSP. The article (1) traces the origin of MSP in the region and describes the reasons for its development, (2) reviews the status of MSP processes to date at the regional and national level, and (3) reflects on the regional and individual country processes in terms of differences and similarities in approach and process governance, shared opportunities and difficulties. The study finds that MSP in the region is introduced because of both strong interests to use it as a means to help grow the blue/ocean economy and as a mechanism to further the implementation of the ecosystem approach. Similar steps have been taken so far and alike approaches to MSP exist across the three countries, with the BCC as regional convention facilitating knowledge sharing and assisting to improve cross-border coherence and consistency on MSP from the outset. Although challenges, such as limited finances and data gaps exist both at national and regional level, the MSP processes to-date have created an enabling environment to develop the first marine spatial plans in each country and to exchange knowledge and experiences within the region and with other regions.

A high-resolution remotely sensed benthic habitat map of the Qatari coastal zone

A comprehensive, high resolution, ground truthed benthic habitat map has been completed for Qatar's coastal zone and Halul Island. The objectives of this research were to; 1. Systematically compare and contrast pixel- and object-based classifiers for benthic mapping in a limited focus area and then to, 2. Apply these learnings to develop an accurate high resolution benthic habitat map for the entirety of the Qatari coastal zone. Results indicate object-based methods proved more efficient and accurate when compared to pixel based classifiers. The developed country-wide map covers 4500 km² and underscores the complex interplay of seagrass, macroalgal, and reefal habitats, as well as areas of expansive mangrove forests and microbial mats. The map developed here is a first of its kind in the region. Many potential applications exist for the datasets collected to provide fundamental information that can be used for ecosystem-based management decision making.

A GIS-based multi-criteria model for offshore wind energy power plants site selection in both sides of the Aegean Sea

Location selection for offshore wind farms is a major challenge for renewable energy policy, marine spatial planning, and environmental conservation. This selection constitutes a multi-criteria decision-making problem, through which parameters like wind velocity, water depth, shorelines, fishing areas, shipping routes, environmental protection areas, transportation, and military zones should be jointly investigated. The aim of the present study was thus to develop an integrated methodology for assessing the siting of bottom-fixed offshore wind farms in two different countries (with different legal, political, and socio/economic characteristics). Our methodology combined multi-criteria decision-making methods and geographical information systems and was implemented in Cyclades (Greece) and in the sea area of İzmir region (Turkey). Experts used fuzzy sets and linguistic terms to achieve more consistent and independent rankings and results. In the Turkish region, the results showed that 519 km² (10.23%) of the study area is suitable for offshore wind farms, while in the Greek region, only 289 km² (3.22%) of the study area was found to be suitable. This spatial suitability analysis may contribute to provide some useful recommendations for the spatial marine planning at the regional scale, as well as for the preliminary assessment of new offshore wind farms in both countries.

Validated shipping noise maps of the Northeast Atlantic

Underwater noise pollution from shipping is globally pervasive and has a range of adverse impacts on species which depend on sound, including marine mammals, sea turtles, fish, and many invertebrates. International bodies including United Nations agencies, the Arctic Council, and the European Union are beginning to address the issue at the policy level, but better evidence is needed to map levels of underwater noise pollution and the potential benefits of management measures such as ship-quieting regulations. Crucially, corroboration of noise maps with field measurements is presently lacking, which undermines confidence in their application to policymaking. We construct a computational model of underwater noise levels in the Northeast Atlantic using Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship-tracking data, wind speed data, and other environmental parameters, and validate this model against field measurements at 4 sites in the North Sea. Overall, model predictions of the median sound level were within ±3 dB for 93% of the field measurements for one-third octave frequency bands in the range 125 Hz-5 kHz. Areas with median noise levels exceeding 120 dB re 1 μPa and 20 dB above modelled natural background sound were predicted to occur in the Dover Strait, the Norwegian trench, near to several major ports, and around offshore infrastructure sites in the North Sea. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantitatively validate large-scale modelled noise maps with field measurements at multiple sites. Further validation will increase confidence in deeper waters and during winter months. Our results highlight areas where anthropogenic pressure from shipping noise is greatest and will inform the management of shipping noise in the Northeast Atlantic. The good agreement between measurements and model gives confidence that models of shipping noise can be used to inform future policy and management decisions to address shipping noise pollution.

Cumulative impact assessment for ecosystem-based marine spatial planning

Claims for ocean space are growing while marine ecosystems suffer from centuries of insufficient care. Human pressures from runoff, atmospheric emissions, marine pollution, fishing, shipping, military operations and other activities wear on habitats and populations. Ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP) has emerged worldwide as a strategic instrument for handling conflicting spatial claims among competing sectors and the environment. The twofold objective of both boosting the blue economy and protecting the environment is challenging in practice and marine planners need decision support. Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) was originally developed to provide an overview of the human imprint on the world's ocean ecosystems. We have now added a scenario component to the CIA model and used it within Swedish ecosystem-based MSP. This has allowed us to project environmental impacts for different planning alternatives throughout the planning process, strengthening the integration of environmental considerations into strategic decision-making. Every MSP decision may entail a local shift of environmental impact, causing positive or negative consequences for ecosystem components. The results from Swedish MSP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea illustrate that MSP certainly has the potential to lower net cumulative environmental impact, both locally and across sea basins, as long as environmental values are rated high and prevailing pressures derive from activities that are part of MSP. By synthesizing innumerous data into comprehensible decision support that informs marine planners of the likely environmental consequences of different options, CIA enables ecosystem-based MSP in practice.

Applying a combined geospatial and farm scale model to identify suitable locations for mussel farming

Mussel farming has increasingly come into focus as a potential mitigation measure for fish farms and eutrophication, in addition to being a food source. This study presents a GIS-based suitability analysis combined with a farm scale model to identify appropriate mussel farming sites. The sites are investigated in terms of potential mussel harvest, nutrient removal, and effects on water transparency. The model is applied to the south-western Baltic Sea. The identified suitable area is about 5-8% of the case study extent. The model shows that elevated chlorophyll levels stimulate mussel growth and that upon mussel harvest, nutrients can be removed. A single mussel farm cannot compensate for all nutrients emitted by a fish farm, but it can increase water transparency up to at least 200 m from the farm. Potential nutrient removal and water transparency increases are essential criteria for site selection in eutrophic seas, such as the Baltic Sea.

Marine nature conservation and conflicts with fisheries

Globally, conflicts between marine nature conservation and fishery interests are common and increasing, and there is often a glaring lack of dialogue between stakeholders representing these two interests. There is a need for a stronger and enforced coordination between fishing and conservation authorities when establishing marine protected areas for conservation purposes. We propose that an appropriate instrument for such coordination is a broad ecosystem-based marine spatial planning procedure, representing neither nature conservation nor fishery. Strategic environmental assessment for plans and programmes and environmental impact assessment for projects are commonly used tools for assessing the environmental impacts of different human activities, but are seldom used for evaluating the environmental effects of capture fisheries. The diversity of fisheries and the drastic effects of some fisheries on the environment are strong arguments for introducing these procedures as valuable supplements to existing fisheries assessment and management tools and able to provide relevant environmental information for an overall marine spatial planning process. Marine protected areas for nature conservation and for protection of fisheries have different objectives. Therefore, the legal procedure when establishing marine protected areas should depend on whether they are established for nature conservation purposes or as a fisheries resource management tool. Fishing in a marine protected area for conservation purpose should be regulated according to conservation law. Also, we argue that marine protected areas for conservation purposes, in the highest protection category, should primarily be established as fully protected marine national parks and marine reserves.

Relative impacts of multiple human stressors in estuaries and coastal waters in the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition zone

The objectives of this study are 1) to map the potential cumulative impacts of multiple human activities and stressors on the ecosystems in the transition zone between the North Sea and Baltic Sea, for Danish waters 2) to analyse differences in stressor contribution between the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, off-shore waters) and Water Framework Directive (WFD, coastal waters), and 3) to assess the local relative importance of stressors for 14 areas along a land-sea gradient, from inner fjords or coastal areas to offshore waters. The mapping of cumulative impacts is anchored in 35 datasets describing a broad range of human stressors and 47 ecosystem components ranging from phytoplankton over benthic communities to fish, seabirds and marine mammals, which we combined by means of a widely used spatial human impact model. Ranking of the stressor impacts for the entire study area revealed that the top five stressors are: 'Nutrients', 'Climate anomalies', 'Non-indigenous species', 'Noise' and 'Contaminants'. The gradient studies showed that some stressors (e.g. 'Nutrients', 'Shipping' and 'Physical modification') have a relatively higher impact within the fjord/estuarine systems whilst others (e.g. 'Fisheries', 'Contaminants' and 'Noise') have relatively higher impact in the open waters. Beyond mapping of cumulative human impacts, we discuss how the maps can be used as an analytical tool to inform ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning, using the MSFD and WFD as examples.

Vulnerable sandstone reefs: Biodiversity and habitat at risk

Sandstone reefs may be considered a unique geomorphologic feature within the subtropical Southwestern Atlantic Ocean region; however, biodiversity on these reefs has received little to no attention. Herein, we recorded the fish assemblage and benthic cover of sandstone reefs between 23 and 29 m depth in Southern Brazil and evidenced potential threats to habitat health. Video analysis and underwater censuses recorded 30 fish species. The unexpected high biomass of Epinephelus marginatus indicated that sandstone reefs may contain suitable habitats for the recovery of this endangered species. A rich benthic coverage including bryozoans, algae, hydrozoans, sponges, and octocorals increased local habitat structural complexity. However, a wide diversity of tangled fishing gear and broken sandstone slabs suggested that a valuable feature from Southern Brazil seascape is being lost by cumulative fishing impacts. An extensive mapping of sandstone reefs is urgently needed for better delineation of marine protected areas network in Southeast and Southern Brazil.

Understanding the spatial diversity of social uses, dynamics, and conflicts in marine spatial planning

Marine coastal environments are often socially complex public areas that need equitable spatial planning approaches. Understanding the extent of extractive and non-extractive uses and the social dynamics that may be driving patterns of use is essential if the spatial plan is to support the social resilience of a marine area. In this study, a combination of fuzzy-set multi-criteria GIS modelling and negative tie social network analysis were used to explore social uses and conflicts based on sketch-mapping interviews with five key stakeholder groups (ecotourism, Aboriginal Traditional Owners, commercial and recreational fishing, and water sports) within a Marine Protected Area (MPA). Most of the areas within the MPA were regularly used by the stakeholders, with non-extractive and extractive stakeholders occupying similar spatial extents, with each stakeholder group having a different pattern of use. However, stakeholder groups had different levels of perceived priority to access these areas and support of the current spatial management plan, especially within the ecotourism and Aboriginal Traditional Owner groups. The investigation of social conflicts in shaping patterns of use revealed that most stakeholder conflicts do not necessarily occur in areas of overlaps, but generally in areas of high biodiversity and easy access through marine infrastructure. Ecotourism groups had the most perceived conflicts over marine space, which shaped their use towards certain no-take zones that protected high biodiversity and would also provide protection from other conflicting stakeholder uses (e.g., boating, fishing). Overall, the method outlined in this paper presents a way for marine spatial management to consider not only the extent and diversity of social uses in a marine environment but also the spatial-social dynamics that may determine the success of the spatial plan in supporting long-term social resilience.

Preference classes in society for coastal marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being used as conservation tools in the marine environment. Success of MPAs depends upon sound scientific design and societal support. Studies that have assessed societal preferences for temperate MPAs have generally done it without considering the existence of discrete groups of opinion within society and have largely considered offshore and deep-sea areas. This study quantifies societal preferences and economic support for coastal MPAs in Wales (UK) and assesses the presence of distinct groups of preference for MPA management, through a latent class choice experiment approach. Results show a general support for the protection of the marine environment in the form of MPAs and that society is willing to bear the costs derived from conservation. Despite a general opposition toward MPAs where human activities are completely excluded, there is some indication that three classes of preferences within society can be established regarding the management of potentially sea-floor damaging activities. This type of approach allows for the distinction between those respondents with positive preferences for particular types of management from those who experience disutility. We conclude that insights from these types of analyses can be used by policy-makers to identify those MPA designs and management combinations most likely to be supported by particular sectors of society.

Promoting ancillary conservation through marine spatial planning

The term Other Effective Conservation Measures (OECMs) refers to areas which are not protected areas and yet significantly contribute to conservation; they were recently defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Efforts to address the designation of OECMs include further definition of the term and the development of typologies of OECMs and of screening tools which can be applied to identify potential OECMs. While the designation process of OECMs is still unclear, especially in the marine environment, we suggest a decision process which can be used by planners to identify and designate specific types of OECMs as part of the marine spatial planning (MSP) process. These OECMs are areas where marine communities benefit from access restrictions established due to safety or security concerns. We applied the suggested process on two case studies of the Italian Northern Adriatic and the Israeli Mediterranean seas. When consideration of OECMs comes at the expense of designating marine protected areas, OECMs can become controversial. However, OECM designation can promote achievement of marine conservation goals and of ecosystem-based management of uses. Therefore, we suggest that while spatial targets for conservation should focus mainly on areas dedicated for marine reserves, OECMs, especially of the type for ancillary conservation discussed in this paper, can be achieved through MSP. Using MSP for the designation of recognized OECMs may significantly promote marine conservation goals in unexpected ways and may ¬help realize ecosystem-based management.

Heterogeneous public and local knowledge provides a qualitative indicator of coastal use by marine recreational fishers

Marine recreational fishing (MRF) benefits individuals and economies, but can also impact fish stocks and associated ecosystems. Fish are an important resource providing direct economic benefit through commercial and recreational exploitation, and more esoteric ecosystem services. It is important to consider recreational fishing in marine spatial planning, but spatial information on coastal utilisation for MRF is frequently lacking. Public sources of local knowledge were reviewed and the frequency of unique references to sites extracted. Sites were georeferenced using a gazetteer compiled from the Ordnance Survey and United Kingdom Hydrographic Office named sea features gazetteer and local knowledge sources. Recreational fishing site densities were calculated across 2700 km of coastline and this proxy indicator of coastal utilisation validated against two independent surveys using permutative Monte Carlo sampling to control for sparse and non-independent data. Site density had fair agreement with independent surveys, but standardization by shore length reduced this agreement. Applying a 3 by 3 box filter convolution to the spatial layers improved the agreement between local knowledge derived predictions of activity and those of directed surveys, and permutation testing showed that agreement did not arise as a result of the convolution itself. High and low activity areas were more accurately predicted than areas of intermediate activity. Site density derived from heterogeneous participant and local knowledge can produce qualitative predictions of where recreational fishers fish, and applying a convolution can improve the predictive power of data so derived. However, this approach will be subject to unquantifiable bias and may fail to identify areas highly valued by marine recreational fishers. Thus it should be used in conjunction with other information in decision making and may be best suited to inform the early stage sampling design of on-site surveys or to complement other data sets in mapping areas of importance to recreational fishers.

A spatial risk approach towards integrated marine spatial planning: A case study on European hake nursery areas in the North Alboran Sea

Europe's Blue Growth strategy promotes the intensification of human activities at sea and increases the environmental risk such as the decline of the provision of key ecosystem services and potential conflicts among human activities. The fishing sector, in the Alboran Sea, is economically and culturally one of the most important and relies on overexploited target species such as European hake (Merlucius merlucius). Here we identified and quantified the impact of human pressures on the capacity of marine habitats to support the provision of food as an important ecosystem service. We modelled the spatial distribution of nursery areas of European hake in the Alboran Sea, using General Additive Models (GAM) and overlaid those with European Nature Information System (EUNIS) habitats. A sensitivity analysis of hake nursery areas to cumulative human impacts identified the Bay of Malaga as the most sensitive area with trawling frequencies up to 60 times higher than the habitats recovery time. Further, we identified an increased conflict potential among human activities such as trawling and extraction with the presence of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), which provide MPAs a high vulnerability similar to that found in unprotected areas. Future scenarios considering the increase of renewable energy and alternative food production show conflicts between aquaculture and MPAs as well as offshore wind farms and offshore shipping. Hence, our results show strong arguments for an integrated spatial management approach, including benthic trawling. We also suggest restricting trawling activities inside MPAs to safeguard the habitats capacity to support ecosystem services. Our spatially explicit assessment framework is transparent and transferable to other Mediterranean regions. Thus, it can function as a model on how to incorporate cumulative effect assessments in marine spatial planning processes.

On the ecological relevance of landscape mapping and its application in the spatial planning of very large marine protected areas

In recent years very large marine protected areas (VLMPAs) have become the dominant form of spatial protection in the marine environment. Whilst seen as a holistic and geopolitically achievable approach to conservation, there is currently a mismatch between the size of VLMPAs, and the data available to underpin their establishment and inform on their management. Habitat mapping has increasingly been adopted as a means of addressing paucity in biological data, through use of environmental proxies to estimate species and community distribution. Small-scale studies have demonstrated environmental-biological links in marine systems. Such links, however, are rarely demonstrated across larger spatial scales in the benthic environment. As such, the utility of habitat mapping as an effective approach to the ecosystem-based management of VLMPAs remains, thus far, largely undetermined. The aim of this study was to assess the ecological relevance of broadscale landscape mapping. Specifically we test the relationship between broad-scale marine landscapes and the structure of their benthic faunal communities. We focussed our work at the sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia, site of one of the largest MPAs in the world. We demonstrate a statistically significant relationship between environmentally derived landscape mapping clusters, and the composition of presence-only species data from the region. To demonstrate this relationship required specific re-sampling of historical species occurrence data to balance biological rarity, biological cosmopolitism, range-restricted sampling and fine-scale heterogeneity between sampling stations. The relationship reveals a distinct biological signature in the faunal composition of individual landscapes, attributing ecological relevance to South Georgia's environmentally derived marine landscape map. We argue therefore, that landscape mapping represents an effective framework for ensuring representative protection of habitats in management plans. Such scientific underpinning of marine spatial planning is critical in balancing the needs of multiple stakeholders whilst maximising conservation payoff.

Summer at the beach: spatio-temporal patterns of white shark occurrence along the inshore areas of False Bay, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Understanding white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) habitat use in coastal areas adjacent to large cities, is an important step when formulating potential solutions to the conservation conflict that exists between humans and large predatory sharks. In this study, we present the findings of a 2.5-year study of white shark occurrence and movement patterns adjacent to the City of Cape Town in False Bay, South Africa, with a focus on spring and summer months. Fifty-one white sharks were monitored annually at three offshore and twelve inshore sites by VR2 acoustic receivers, over 975 days from 1 May 2005 to 31 December 2007.

RESULTS

Occurrence patterns at inshore sites during spring and summer were analysed using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) with a spatial term (longitude, latitude), time of day and year included as explanatory variables for site use. We found that sharks occurred more frequently at inshore sites along the northern and northwestern shores, compared to the rest of the bay, and they transitioned most frequently between four adjacent beach sites that encompass the most popular recreational water use areas in Cape Town. There was significant diel variation, with higher shark occurrence around midday, and a peak in shark occurrence in 2005, when human-shark interactions also peaked. However, we found no effect of shark size on occurrence patterns at inshore sites.

CONCLUSIONS

White sharks showed the highest levels of occurrence at specific inshore sites between Muizenberg and Strandfontein beach, and thus inclusion of these sites within False Bay's marine protected area (MPA) network or recognition as Ecological or Biological Significant Areas (EBSAs) should be a future consideration. These insights into white shark habitat use at inshore sites in False Bay are important for successfully applying the principles of marine spatial planning (MSP) and for making science-based policy decisions. Furthermore, this information can be used to reduce potential shark-human conflict by incorporating it into future shark safety education campaigns.

Exploring the social dimension of sandy beaches through predictive modelling

Sandy beaches are unique ecosystems increasingly exposed to human-induced pressures. Consistent with emerging frameworks promoting this holistic approach towards beach management, is the need to improve the integration of social data into management practices. This paper aims to increase understanding of links between demographics and community values and preferred beach activities, as key components of the social dimension of the beach environment. A mixed method approach was adopted to elucidate users' opinions on beach preferences and community values through a survey carried out in Manly Local Government Area in Sydney Harbour, Australia. A proposed conceptual model was used to frame demographic models (using age, education, employment, household income and residence status) as predictors of these two community responses. All possible regression-model combinations were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Best models were then used to calculate quantitative likelihoods of the responses, presented as heat maps. Findings concur with international research indicating the relevance of social and restful activities as important social links between the community and the beach environment. Participant's age was a significant variable in the four predictive models. The use of predictive models informed by demographics could potentially increase our understanding of interactions between the social and ecological systems of the beach environment, as a prelude to integrated beach management approaches. The research represents a practical demonstration of how demographic predictive models could support proactive approaches to beach management.

Offshore pipeline decommissioning: Scale and context

The spatial extent of human activities must be understood for consistent and proportionate regulation, and effective marine planning. Redundant offshore pipelines can be removed or left in situ, but data on the footprint of these options are not readily available. The extents of three North Sea in situ decommissioning scenarios are presented. Leaving pipelines in situ would occupy <0.01% (12.3 km²) of UK waters, and this was similar to, or smaller than, other regulated activities (e.g. aggregate extraction). Adding armouring to large pipelines occupied up to 95 km², while creating fisheries exclusion zones occupied up to 1119 km². Removal of pipelines >30″ would be required to regain 50% or more of the seabed currently occupied. At present, the technology to remove pipelines >16″ safely and cost-efficiently is untested for large-scale decommissioning projects. The summaries presented inform the debate over the significance of decommissioning, and the regional consequences of different options.

Black guillemot ecology in relation to tidal stream energy generation: An evaluation of current knowledge and information gaps

The black guillemot Cepphus grylle has been identified as a species likely to interact with marine renewable energy devices, specifically tidal turbines, with the potential to experience negative impacts. This likelihood is primarily based on the species being a diving seabird, and an inshore, benthic forager often associating with tidal streams. These behavioural properties may bring them into contact with turbine blades, or make them susceptible to alterations to tidal current speed, and/or changes in benthic habitat structure. We examine the knowledge currently available to assess the potential impacts of tidal stream turbines on black guillemot ecology, highlight knowledge gaps and make recommendations for future research. The key ecological aspects investigated include: foraging movements, diving behaviour, seasonal distribution, other sources of disturbance and colony recovery. Relating to foraging behaviour, between studies there is heterogeneity in black guillemot habitat use in relation to season, tide, diurnal cycles, and bathymetry. Currently, there is also little knowledge regarding the benthic habitats associated with foraging. With respect to diving behaviour, there is currently no available research regarding how black guillemots orientate and manoeuvre within the water column. Black guillemots are considered to be a non-migratory species, however little is known about their winter foraging range and habitat. The effect of human disturbance on breeding habitat and the metapopulation responses to potential mortalities are unknown. It is clear further understanding of black guillemot foraging habitat and behaviour is needed to provide renewable energy developers with the knowledge to sustainably locate tidal turbines and mitigate their impacts.

The challenges of marine spatial planning in the Arctic: Results from the ACCESS programme

Marine spatial planning is increasingly used to manage the demands on marine areas, both spatially and temporally, where several different users may compete for resources or space, to ensure that development is as sustainable as possible. Diminishing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic will allow for potential increases in economic exploitation, and failure to plan for cross-sectoral management could have negative economic and environmental results. During the ACCESS programme, a marine spatial planning tool was developed for the Arctic, enabling the integrated study of human activities related to hydrocarbon exploitation, shipping and fisheries, and the possible environmental impacts, within the context of the next 30 years of climate change. In addition to areas under national jurisdiction, the Arctic Ocean contains a large area of high seas. Resources and ecosystems extend across political boundaries. We use three examples to highlight the need for transboundary planning and governance to be developed at a regional level.

Identifying conflict potential in a coastal and marine environment using participatory mapping

Planning for coastal and marine environments is often characterized by conflict over current and proposed uses. Marine spatial planning has been proposed as a way forward, however, social data are often missing impeding decision-making. Participatory mapping, a technique useful for providing social data and predict conflict potential, is being used in an increasing number of terrestrial applications to inform planning, but has been little used in the marine realm. This study collected social data for an extensive coastline in northwestern Australia via 167 in-depth face-to-face interviews including participant mapping of place values. From the transcribed interviews and digitized maps, we inductively identified 17 values, with biodiversity, the physical landscape, and Aboriginal culture being most valued. To spatially identify conflict potential, values were classified in matrices as consumptive or non-consumptive with the former assumed to be less compatible with other values. Pairwise comparisons of value compatibilities informed a spatial GIS determination of conflict potential. The results were overlaid with the boundaries of nine marine protected areas in the region to illustrate the application of this method for marine spatial planning. The three near shore marine protected areas had at least one third of their area exhibiting conflict potential. Participatory mapping accompanied by conflict potential mapping provides important insights for spatial planning in these often-highly contested marine environments.

A Markov model for planning and permitting offshore wind energy: A case study of radio-tracked terns in the Gulf of Maine, USA

Quantifying and managing the potential adverse wildlife impacts of offshore wind energy is critical for developing offshore wind energy in a sustainable and timely manner, but poses a significant challenge, particularly for small marine birds that are difficult to monitor. We developed a discrete-time Markov model of seabird movement around a colony site parameterized by automated radio telemetry data from common terns (Sterna hirundo) and Arctic terns (S. paradisaea), and derived impact functions that estimate the probability of collision fatality as a function of the distance and bearing of wind turbines from a colony. Our purpose was to develop and demonstrate a new, flexible tool that can be used for specific management and wind-energy planning applications when adequate data are available, rather than inform wind-energy development at this site. We demonstrate how the tool can be used 1) in marine spatial planning exercises to quantitatively identify setback distances under development scenarios given a risk threshold, 2) to examine the ecological and technical trade-offs of development alternatives to facilitate negotiation between objectives, and 3) in the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process to estimate collision fatality under alternative scenarios. We discuss model limitations and data needs, and highlight opportunities for future model extension and development. We present a highly flexible tool for wind energy planning that can be easily extended to other central place foragers and data sources, and can be updated and improved as new monitoring data arises.

Assessing larval connectivity for marine spatial planning in the Adriatic

There are plans to start building offshore marine renewable energy devices throughout the Mediterranean and the Adriatic has been identified as a key location for wind farm developments. The development of offshore wind farms in the area would provide hard substrata for the settlement of sessile benthos. Since the seafloor of the Adriatic is predominantly sedimentary this may alter the larval connectivity of benthic populations in the region. Here, we simulated the release of larvae from benthic populations along the coasts of the Adriatic Sea using coupled bio-physical models and investigated the effect of pelagic larval duration on dispersal. Our model simulations show that currents typically carry particles from east to west across the Adriatic, whereas particles released along western coasts tend to remain there with the Puglia coast of Italy acting as a sink for larvae from benthic populations. We identify areas of high connectivity, as well as areas that are much more isolated, and discuss how these results can be used to inform marine spatial planning and the licensing of offshore marine renewable energy developments.

Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999-2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.

Application of management tools to integrate ecological principles with the design of marine infrastructure

Globally the coastal zone is suffering the collateral damage from continuing urban development and construction, expanding resource sectors, increasing population, regulation to river flow, and on-going land change and degradation. While protection of natural coastal habitat is recommended, balancing conservation with human services is now the challenge for managers. Marine infrastructure such as seawalls, marinas and offshore platforms is increasingly used to support and provide services, but has primarily been designed for engineering purposes without consideration of the ecological consequences. Increasingly developments are seeking alternatives to hard engineering and a range of ecological solutions has begun to replace or be incorporated into marine and coastal infrastructure. But too often, hard engineering remains the primary strategy because the tools for managers to implement ecological solutions are either lacking or not supported by policy and stakeholders. Here we outline critical research needs for marine urban development and emerging strategies that seek to mitigate the impacts of marine infrastructure. We present case studies to highlight the strategic direction necessary to support management decisions internationally.

Marine governance in the English Channel (La Manche): Linking science and management

The English Channel is one of the world's busiest sea areas with intense shipping and port activity juxtaposed with recreation, communications and important conservation areas. Opportunities for marine renewable energy vie with existing activities for space. The current governance of the English Channel is reviewed and found to lack integration between countries, sectors, legislation and scientific research. Recent developments within the EU's marine management frameworks are significantly altering our approach to marine governance and this paper explores the implications of these new approaches to management of the English Channel. Existing mechanisms for cross-Channel science and potential benefits of an English Channel scale perspective are considered. In conclusion, current management practices are considered against the 12 Malawi Principles of the ecosystem approach resulting in proposals for enhancing governance of the region through science at the scale of the English Channel.

Ocean zoning for conservation, fisheries and marine renewable energy: assessing trade-offs and co-location opportunities

Oceans, particularly coastal areas, are getting busier and within this increasingly human-dominated seascape, marine biodiversity continues to decline. Attempts to maintain and restore marine biodiversity are becoming more spatial, principally through the designation of marine protected areas (MPAs). MPAs compete for space with other uses, and the emergence of new industries, such as marine renewable energy generation, will increase competition for space. Decision makers require guidance on how to zone the ocean to conserve biodiversity, mitigate conflict and accommodate multiple uses. Here we used empirical data and freely available planning software to identified priority areas for multiple ocean zones, which incorporate goals for biodiversity conservation, two types of renewable energy, and three types of fishing. We developed an approached to evaluate trade-offs between industries and we investigated the impacts of co-locating some fishing activities within renewable energy sites. We observed non-linear trade-offs between industries. We also found that different subsectors within those industries experienced very different trade-off curves. Incorporating co-location resulted in significant reductions in cost to the fishing industry, including fisheries that were not co-located. Co-location also altered the optimal location of renewable energy zones with planning solutions. Our findings have broad implications for ocean zoning and marine spatial planning. In particular, they highlight the need to include industry subsectors when assessing trade-offs and they stress the importance of considering co-location opportunities from the outset. Our research reinforces the need for multi-industry ocean-zoning and demonstrates how it can be undertaken within the framework of strategic conservation planning.

Great skua (Stercorarius skua) movements at sea in relation to marine renewable energy developments

Marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) are an increasing feature of the marine environment. Owing to the relatively small number of existing developments and the early stage of their associated environmental monitoring programmes, the effects of MREDs on seabirds are not fully known. Our ability to fully predict potential effects is limited by a lack of knowledge regarding movements of seabirds at sea. We used GPS tracking to improve our understanding of the movements at sea of a protected seabird species breeding in Scotland, the great skua (Stercorarius skua), to better predict how this species may be affected by MREDs. We found that the overlap of great skuas with leased and proposed MREDs was low; particularly with offshore wind sites, which are predicted to present a greater risk to great skuas than wave or tidal-stream developments. Failed breeders overlapped with larger areas of MREDs than breeding birds but the overall overlap with core areas used remained low. Overlap with wave energy development sites was greater than for offshore wind and tidal-stream sites. Comparison of 2011 data with historical data indicates that distances travelled by great skuas have likely increased over recent decades. This suggests that basing marine spatial planning decisions on short-term tracking data could be less informative than longer-term data.

Getting it right for the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaenaglacialis): a last opportunity for effective marine spatial planning?

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) faces increasing pressure from commercial shipping traffic and proposed marine renewable energy developments. Drawing upon the successful Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary model, we propose a multi-stakeholder marine spatial planning process that considers both appropriate positioning of offshore wind farms and redefining commercial shipping lanes relative to whale migration routes: placement of wind turbines within certain right whale habitats may prove beneficial for the species. To that end, it may be advisable to initially relocate the shipping lanes for the benefit of the whales prior to selecting wind energy areas. The optimal end-state is the commercial viability of renewable energy, as well as a safe shipping infrastructure, with minimal risk of collision and exposure to shipping noise for the whales. This opportunity to manage impacts on right whales could serve as a model for other problematic interactions between marine life and commercial activities.

Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century

Over 1.3 billion people live on tropical coasts, primarily in developing countries. Many depend on adjacent coastal seas for food, and livelihoods. We show how trends in demography and in several local and global anthropogenic stressors are progressively degrading capacity of coastal waters to sustain these people. Far more effective approaches to environmental management are needed if the loss in provision of ecosystem goods and services is to be stemmed. We propose expanded use of marine spatial planning as a framework for more effective, pragmatic management based on ocean zones to accommodate conflicting uses. This would force the holistic, regional-scale reconciliation of food security, livelihoods, and conservation that is needed. Transforming how countries manage coastal resources will require major change in policy and politics, implemented with sufficient flexibility to accommodate societal variations. Achieving this change is a major challenge - one that affects the lives of one fifth of humanity.

Changing vessel routes could significantly reduce the cost of future offshore wind projects

With the recent emphasis on offshore wind energy Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) has become one of the main frameworks used to plan and manage the increasingly complex web of ocean and coastal uses. As wind development becomes more prevalent, existing users of the ocean space, such as commercial shippers, will be compelled to share their historically open-access waters with these projects. Here, we demonstrate the utility of using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to support siting decisions within a CMSP framework. In this study, we assume that large-scale offshore wind development will take place in the US Mid-Atlantic within the next decades. We then evaluate whether building projects nearshore or far from shore would be more cost-effective. Building projects nearshore is assumed to require rerouting of the commercial vessel traffic traveling between the US Mid-Atlantic ports by an average of 18.5 km per trip. We focus on less than 1500 transits by large deep-draft vessels. We estimate that over 29 years of the study, commercial shippers would incur an additional $0.2 billion (in 2012$) in direct and indirect costs. Building wind projects closer to shore where vessels used to transit would generate approximately $13.4 billion (in 2012$) in savings. Considering the large cost savings, modifying areas where vessels transit needs to be included in the portfolio of policies used to support the growth of the offshore wind industry in the US.

Seagrass importance for a small-scale fishery in the tropics: the need for seascape management

Small-scale fisheries (SSF) in tropical seascapes (mosaics of interconnected mangroves, seagrasses and corals) are crucial for food and income. However, management is directed mostly to corals and mangroves. This research analyzes the importance of seagrasses compared to adjacent ecosystems in Chwaka Bay, Zanzibar, Tanzania. Using fish landings; the study investigated: location of fishing effort, fish production (biomass and species), and monetary benefits (aggregated value and per capita income). Seagrasses were the most visited grounds providing highest community benefits. Per capita benefits were equivalent to those from corals and mangroves. All three habitats provided income just above extreme poverty levels; however catches from seagrass appeared more stable. Seagrass are key ecosystems supporting SSF and protection and management are urgently needed. Adoption of a seascape approach considering all ecosystems underpinning SSF and the social aspects of fishing and a shift in emphasis from pure conservation to sustainable resource management would be desirable.