The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980-2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis

Thyroid cancer incidence in cohorts exposed in childhood to 131I released during the Windscale nuclear reactor accident at Sellafield, England, in 1957

A fire in one of the Windscale nuclear reactors at Sellafield (Cumbria, England) in October 1957 released 1,800 TBq of 131I (half-life, 8 days) to atmosphere. Measurements of 131I activity in thyroids of exposed children showed typical thyroid doses of tens of milligray, but with some exceeding 100 mGy. Radiation exposure in childhood is known to increase the risk of thyroid cancer. Consequently, an investigation was conducted into whether raised numbers of thyroid cancer cases occurred in those exposed to 131I as young children in Cumbria. A database of Cumbrian births from 1950 onwards allowed cohorts of 56,086 births during 1950-1958 and 137,444 births during 1959-1980 to be constructed, periods including children potentially exposed and unexposed, respectively, to 131I. Three areas of Cumbria with different 131I contamination levels were identified from monitoring data, and births assigned to these three areas for the two periods of birth. Members of these six sub-cohorts were linked to incident thyroid cancer cases in Great Britain during 1981-2020 using national cancer registration databases, providing thyroid cancer incidence rates. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs), with the lowest contamination area as a reference, were computed. No IRR differed discernibly from unity. For births during 1950-1958, the IRR for the combined highest and intermediate 131I contamination areas was 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 1.56), and no case of thyroid cancer was found in the small cohort born in the highest contamination area. In conclusion, no increased risk of thyroid cancer in those exposed to 131I as young children in Cumbria in 1957 was detected. This study adds to the evidence on the long-term risk of thyroid cancer following childhood exposure to low and moderate levels of 131I, such as occurred following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011.

Variation in harms and benefits of prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer by socio-clinical risk factors: A rapid review

Objective

To analyse the latest evidence on the relative harms and benefits of screening and diagnostic pathways with close examination of (i) men aged 50 years or older, (ii) men whose ethnicity places them at higher risk and (iii) men with a family history.

Methods

We conducted a literature search using PubMed and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) databases and other sources, from January 1990 to 25 January 2023. Two independent reviewers selected for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies which met our inclusion criteria.

Results

Twenty-eight articles were selected, from six trials, including the Göteborg trial-reported separately from European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening led to the increased detection of low-grade cancer and reduction of advanced/metastatic disease but had contradictory effects on prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality (no difference or reduced), possibly due to issues of contamination or compliance. Screening men from a relatively young age (50-55) reduced risk of PCa-specific mortality in a subanalysis of an 18-year follow-up study and in a 17-year cohort study from the main Göteborg trial. Moreover, one Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial analysis reported a trend of reduced risk of PCa-specific mortality for men with a family history who were screened. [Correction added on 05 March 2024, after first online publication: "Cancer Screening Trial" has been added to the preceding sentence.] However, we did not find relevant studies for ethnicity.

Conclusion

Under current UK practice, the choice to conduct a PSA test relies on a shared decision-making approach guided by known risk factors. However, we found there was a lack of strong evidence on the harms and benefits of PSA screening by socio-clinical risk factors and suggest further research is required to understand the long-term impact of screening on high-risk populations in the current diagnostic setting.

25 year trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK, 1993-2018: retrospective secondary analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine and interpret trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality for all cancers combined and for the most common cancer sites in adults aged 35-69 years.

DESIGN

Retrospective secondary data analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Cancer registration data, cancer mortality and national population data from the Office for National Statistics, Public Health Wales, Public Health Scotland, Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, NHS England, and the General Register Office for Northern Ireland.

SETTING

23 cancer sites were included in the analysis in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women aged 35-69 years diagnosed with or who died from cancer between 1993 to 2018.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Change in cancer incidence and mortality age standardised rates over time.

RESULTS

The number of cancer cases in this age range rose by 57% for men (from 55 014 cases registered in 1993 to 86 297 in 2018) and by 48% for women (60 187 to 88 970) with age standardised rates showing average annual increases of 0.8% in both sexes. The increase in incidence was predominantly driven by increases in prostate (male) and breast (female) cancers. Without these two sites, all cancer trends in age standardised incidence rates were relatively stable. Trends for a small number of less common cancers showed concerning increases in incidence rates, for example, in melanoma skin, liver, oral, and kidney cancers. The number of cancer deaths decreased over the 25 year period, by 20% in men (from 32 878 to 26 322) and 17% in women (28 516 to 23 719); age standardised mortality rates reduced for all cancers combined by 37% in men (-2.0% per year) and 33% in women (-1.6% per year). The largest decreases in mortality were noted for stomach, mesothelioma, and bladder cancers in men and stomach and cervical cancers and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in women. Most incidence and mortality changes were statistically significant even when the size of change was relatively small.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer mortality had a substantial reduction during the past 25 years in both men and women aged 35-69 years. This decline is likely a reflection of the successes in cancer prevention (eg, smoking prevention policies and cessation programmes), earlier detection (eg, screening programmes) and improved diagnostic tests, and more effective treatment. By contrast, increased prevalence of non-smoking risk factors are the likely cause of the observed increased incidence for a small number of specific cancers. This analysis also provides a benchmark for the following decade, which will include the impact of covid-19 on cancer incidence and outcomes.

Overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically identify and scrutinise published empirical evidence about overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma and examine how frequent overdiagnosis of melanoma is and whether this is related to different types of interventions or diagnostic technologies.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Empirical studies that discussed overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma were eligible, including qualitative and quantitative studies in any type of population, age group and geographical location. We excluded studies that did not include empirical data, studies that only mentioned 'overdiagnosis' without addressing it further and studies that used the term overdiagnosis for cases of misdiagnosis or false positives.We developed the search strategy in cooperation with an information specialist. We searched five databases on 21 April 2022: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library.This scoping review adheres to The JBI methodology and Prefered Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR). Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts for inclusion and extracted data from the included studies. The data extracted include study characteristics, population details, research question, the context and the study's main results.

RESULTS

Our search resulted in 1134 potentially relevant studies. 35 studies were included: 29 register studies, 3 cohort studies, 1 case-control study, 1 survey study and 1 randomised controlled trial. Most register studies examined trends in melanoma incidence and/or mortality and found a significant increase in incidence between 0.39% and 6.6% annually and a little or no increase in mortality. Three cohort studies and one case-control study showed that skin screening was associated with increased detection of melanoma; especially in situ or thin invasive melanoma. Three studies estimated the degree of overdiagnosis which ranged from 29% to 60%.

CONCLUSIONS

Epidemiological data suggest a high degree of overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma. Studies that examined the association between skin screening and malignant melanoma all found increased detection of melanomas, mostly thin and in situ melanomas, which raises concern about overdiagnosis.

Understanding perceptions of the public and key stakeholders toward a localised cancer screening promotion campaign

The aim of this study was to explore perceptions of members of the public and key stakeholders of a localised campaign to increase engagement with cervical cancer screening. Whilst numerous interventions have been trialled to increase engagement with cancer screening, the evidence for their effectiveness is somewhat mixed. In addition, few studies have explored the perceptions of members of the public targeted by such campaigns nor the perceptions of healthcare professionals who may be involved in delivering such campaigns in the United Kingdom. Members of the public who had potentially been exposed to the campaign in the North-East of England were approached to take part in individual interviews whilst stakeholders were invited to take part in a focus group. A total of 25 participants (13 members of the public, 12 stakeholders) took part. All interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using applied thematic analysis. Four themes were identified, two of which were cross-cutting (barriers to screening and factors promoting screening), with one theme identified as specific to the public interviews (knowledge of and attitudes toward awareness campaigns) and one theme specific to the focus group (keeping campaigns relevant. Awareness of the localised campaign was limited; however, when made aware, participants were mostly positive towards the approach, although mixed responses were noted in relation to financial incentives. Members of the public and stakeholders identified some common barriers to screening although differed in their perceptions of promotional factors. This study highlights the importance of multiple strategies to promote cervical screening as one size fits all approach may limit engagement.

Inter-observer agreement among specialists in the diagnosis of oral potentially malignant disorders and oral cancer using store-and-forward technology

OBJECTIVES

Oral cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Screening and mobile Health (mHealth)-based approach facilitates early detection remotely in a resource-limited settings. Recent advances in eHealth technology have enabled remote monitoring and triage to detect oral cancer in its early stages. Although studies have been conducted to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of remote specialists, to our knowledge, no studies have been conducted to evaluate the consistency of remote specialists. The aim of this study was to evaluate interobserver agreement between specialists through telemedicine systems in real-world settings using store-and-forward technology.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The two remote specialists independently diagnosed clinical images (n=822) from image archives. The onsite specialist diagnosed the same participants using conventional visual examination, which was tabulated. The diagnostic accuracy of two remote specialists was compared with that of the onsite specialist. Images that were confirmed histopathologically were compared with the onsite diagnoses and the two remote specialists.

RESULTS

There was moderate agreement (k= 0.682) between two remote specialists and (k= 0.629) between the onsite specialist and two remote specialists in the diagnosis of oral lesions. The sensitivity and specificity of remote specialist 1 were 92.7% and 83.3%, respectively, and those of remote specialist 2 were 95.8% and 60%, respectively, each compared with histopathology.

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic accuracy of the two remote specialists was optimal, suggesting that "store and forward" technology and telehealth can be an effective tool for triage and monitoring of patients.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Telemedicine is a good tool for triage and enables faster patient care in real-world settings.

Deceptive measures of progress in the NHS long-term plan for cancer: case-based vs. population-based measures

The NHS Long Term Plan for cancer aims to increase early-stage diagnoses from 50% to 75% and to have 55,000 more people each year survive their cancer for at least 5 years following diagnosis. The targets measures are flawed and could be met without improving outcomes that really matter to patients. The proportion of early-stage diagnoses could increase, while the number of patients presenting at a late-stage remains the same. More patients could survive their cancer for longer, but lead time and overdiagnosis bias make it impossible to know whether anyone had their life prolonged. The target measures should switch from biased case-based measures to unbiased population-based measures that reflect the key objectives in cancer care: reducing late-stage incidence and mortality.

Disparities in care and outcomes for primary liver cancer in England during 2008-2018: a cohort study of 8.52 million primary care population using the QResearch database

Background

Liver cancer has one of the fastest rising incidence and mortality rates among all cancers in the UK, but it receives little attention. This study aims to understand the disparities in epidemiology and clinical pathways of primary liver cancer and identify the gaps for early detection and diagnosis of liver cancer in England.

Methods

This study used a dynamic English primary care cohort of 8.52 million individuals aged ≥25 years in the QResearch database during 2008-2018, followed up to June 2021. The crude and age-standardised incidence rates, and the observed survival duration were calculated by sex and three liver cancer subtypes, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), and other specified/unspecified primary liver cancer. Regression models were used to investigate factors associated with an incident diagnosis of liver cancer, emergency presentation, late stage at diagnosis, receiving treatments, and survival duration after diagnosis by subtype.

Findings

7331 patients were diagnosed with primary liver cancer during follow-up. The age-standardised incidence rates increased over the study period, particularly for HCC in men (increased by 60%). Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, and geographical regions were all significantly associated with liver cancer incidence in the English primary care population. People aged ≥80 years were more likely to be diagnosed through emergency presentation and in late stages, less likely to receive treatments and had poorer survival than those aged <60 years. Men had a higher risk of being diagnosed with liver cancer than women, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.9 (95% confidence interval 3.6-4.2) for HCC, 1.2 (1.1-1.3) for CCA, and 1.7 (1.5-2.0) for other specified/unspecified liver cancer. Compared with white British, Asians and Black Africans were more likely to be diagnosed with HCC. Patients with higher socioeconomic deprivation were more likely to be diagnosed through the emergency route. Survival rates were poor overall. Patients diagnosed with HCC had better survival rates (14.5% at 10-year survival, 13.1%-16.0%) compared to CCA (4.4%, 3.4%-5.6%) and other specified/unspecified liver cancer (12.5%, 10.1%-15.2%). For 62.7% of patients with missing/unknown stage in liver cancer, their survival outcomes were between those diagnosed in Stages III and IV.

Interpretation

This study provides an overview of the current epidemiology and the disparities in clinical pathways of primary liver cancer in England between 2008 and 2018. A complex public health approach is needed to tackle the rapid increase in incidence and the poor survival of liver cancer. Further studies are urgently needed to address the gaps in early detection and diagnosis of liver cancer in England.

Funding

The Early Detection of Hepatocellular Liver Cancer (DeLIVER) project is funded by Cancer Research UK (Early Detection Programme Award, grant reference: C30358/A29725).

Inter-observer agreement among specialists in the diagnosis of Oral Potentially Malignant Disorders and Oral Cancer using Store-and-Forward technology

Oral Cancer is one of the most common causes of morbidity and mortality. Screening and mobile Health (mHealth) based approach facilitates remote early detection of Oral cancer in a resource-constrained settings. The emerging eHealth technology has aided specialist reach to rural areas enabling remote monitoring and triaging to downstage Oral cancer. Though the diagnostic accuracy of the remote specialist has been evaluated, there are no studies evaluating the consistency among the remote specialists, to the best of our knowledge. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the interobserver agreement between the specialists through telemedicine systems in real-world settings using store and forward technology. Two remote specialists independently diagnosed the clinical images from image repositories, and the diagnostic accuracy was compared with onsite specialist and histopathological diagnosis when available. Moderate agreement (k = 0.682) between two remote specialists and (k = 0.629) between the onsite specialist and two remote specialists in diagnosing oral lesions. The sensitivity and specificity of remote specialist 1 were 92.7% and 83.3%, whereas remote specialist 2 was 95.8% and 60%, respectively, compared to histopathology. The store and forward technology and telecare can be effective tools in triaging and surveillance of patients.

Increased Early Cancer Diagnosis: Unveiling Immune-Cancer Biology to Explain Clinical "Overdiagnosis"

Even though clinically small 'early' cancers represent many millions of cells biologically, when removed surgically, these often never recur or regrow, nor reduce the individual's lifespan. However, some early cancers remain quiescent and indolent; while others grow and metastasize, threatening life. Distinguishing between these different clinical behaviours using clinical/pathological criteria is currently problematic. It is reported that many suspicious lesions and early cancers are being removed surgically that would not threaten the patient's life. This has been termed 'overdiagnosis', especially in the sphere of cancer screening. Although a controversial and emotive topic, it poses clinical and public health policy challenges. The diagnostic differentiation between 'non-lethal' and 'lethal' tumor forms is generally impossible. One perspective gathering evidential support is that a dynamic balance exists between the immune response and malignant processes governing 'lethality', where many more cancers are produced than become clinically significant due to the immune system preventing their progression. Higher medical screening "diagnosis" rates may reflect lead-time effects, with more 'non-progressing' cancers detected when an early immune-cancer interaction is occurring. We present a model for this immune-cancer interaction and review 'excess' or 'overdiagnosis' claims that accompany increasingly sensitive diagnostic and screening technologies. We consider that immune tools should be incorporated into future research, with potential for immune system modulation for some early cancers.

An Epidemiologic Analysis of Melanoma Overdiagnosis in the United States, 1975-2017

The primary cause of the increase in melanoma incidence in the United States has been suggested to be overdiagnosis. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program data from 1975 to 2017 to examine epidemiologic trends of melanoma incidence and mortality and better characterize overdiagnosis in white Americans. Over the 43-year period, incidence and mortality showed discordant temporal changes across population subgroups; trends most suggestive of overdiagnosis alone were present in females aged 55-74. Other groups showed mixed changes suggestive of overdiagnosis plus changes in underlying disease risk (decreasing risk in younger individuals and increasing risk in older males). Cohort effects were identified for male and female mortality and male incidence but were not as apparent for female incidence, suggesting that period effects have had a greater influence on changes in incidence over time in females. Encouraging trends included long-term declines in mortality in younger individuals and recent stabilization of invasive incidence in individuals aged 15-44 years and males aged 45-54 years. Melanoma in situ incidence, however, has continued to increase throughout the population. Overdiagnosis appears to be relatively greater in American females and for melanoma in situ.

Incidence trends for twelve cancers in younger adults-a rapid review

Many cancer referral guidelines use patient’s age as a key criterium to decide who should be referred urgently. A recent rise in the incidence of colorectal cancer in younger adults has been described in high-income countries worldwide. Information on other cancers is more limited. The aim of this rapid review was to determine whether other cancers are also increasing in younger age groups, as this may have important implications for prioritising patients for investigation and referral. We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science for studies describing age-related incidence trends for colorectal, bladder, lung, oesophagus, pancreas, stomach, breast, ovarian, uterine, kidney and laryngeal cancer and myeloma. ‘Younger’ patients were defined based on NICE guidelines for cancer referral. Ninety-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Findings show that the incidence of colorectal, breast, kidney, pancreas, uterine cancer is increasing in younger age groups, whilst the incidence of lung, laryngeal and bladder cancer is decreasing. Data for oesophageal, stomach, ovarian cancer and myeloma were inconclusive. Overall, this review provides evidence that some cancers are increasingly being diagnosed in younger age groups, although the mechanisms remain unclear. Cancer investigation and referral guidelines may need updating in light of these trends.

The justification of non-obstetric ultrasound referrals: A safe and effective practice

INTRODUCTION

In 2015 the British Medical Ultrasound Society released a referral justification document for rejection of inappropriate ultrasound referrals to help manage increasing demand and ensure correct utilisation of diagnostic imaging tests. In our trust, referrals that were not aligned with the guidance were cancelled and returned to general practitioners, providing reasons for cancellation and advising other diagnostic tests if appropriate.Methodology: In total, 1000 cases cancelled between April and August 2019 were retrospectively audited by a team of clinical specialist sonographers. Interoperator agreement against BMUS justification guidelines and safety of this cancellation process were established. Duplicate imaging referrals, referrals made that should have been placed on management pathways or referrals cancelled by the patient directly were excluded in the safety assessment.

RESULTS

There was strong agreement amongst sonographers regarding cancellations. After exclusions, 389 cases were included for review. The majority (90.5%) required no onward imaging and were therefore deemed cancelled appropriately. There were 37 patients found with pathology on subsequent imaging, two of which were found to have cancer and the remainder with benign pathology.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we found the cancellation process to be safe and the justification document easy to utilise in practice. This process has ensured a minimal waiting time for ultrasound imaging is maintained and that demand can be managed to meet the available capacity.

Dermatomyositis and malignancy: should all patients with dermatomyositis undergo malignancy screening?

Dermatomyositis is an autoimmune disease that occurs in association with underlying malignancy in a subset of patients. Given this association, diagnosis of dermatomyositis typically triggers malignancy screening. Although various malignancy screening protocols have been proposed, none have been extensively studied or taken into account prevalence of dermatomyositis-associated malignancies. We utilized peer-reviewed manuscripts identified by a Medline search from May 2000 to April 2020 to present a focused review concerning the association between dermatomyositis and malignancy, and controversies related to screening for malignancies most commonly occurring in dermatomyositis patients. This information was then synthesized to propose a rational strategy for approaching malignancy screening in dermatomyositis patients. Our review supports that risk of malignancy in dermatomyositis patients is well-established. However, the subset of dermatomyositis patients in whom the benefits of malignancy screening outweigh the risks of harm is unknown. Additionally, an evidence-based malignancy screening protocol for dermatomyositis patients that optimizes the risk:benefit ratio does not exist. Given the clear harms that can result, we propose that shared decision-making strategies be implemented to determine whether pursuit of malignancy screening conforms with dermatomyositis patients’ desires and values. Physicians should be clear about potential risks and benefits of malignancy screening, and discuss clinical and serologic features present that may suggest/refute underlying malignancy during conversations aimed at shared decision-making. Research is greatly needed to determine which dermatomyositis patients warrant malignancy screening, which tests should be performed, and the intensity with which they should be ordered. Only after such work is done can malignancy screening in dermatomyositis patients be considered to have high value.

Solar UV Exposure and Mortality from Skin Tumors: An Update

Solar UV exposure is critical and complex in the etiology and prognosis of skin cancer, particularly cutaneous malignant melanoma. Sun exposure and one of its "derivatives," vitamin D, have been implicated in protection against mortality from melanoma. However, the relationships are inconsistent. At this time, it is not possible to make clear recommendations for or against sun exposure in relationship to melanoma prognosis. However, this relationship deserves continued exploration.

'Well that's the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard! No excuse'. A discourse analysis of social media users' othering of non-attenders for cervical screening

Objective: For women cervical cancer is the fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, incidences of which have increased by 20% in the UK in two decades. A growing number of people access health information online and as such health promotion campaigns are utilising social media to reach wider audiences.Design: This study adopts a discourse analysis approach to analysing online interactions in relation to cervical cancer screening campaigns. Data were collected from Facebook and Twitter between August 2017 and August 2018.Results: Three approaches in the discursive strategy of othering were identified: (1) Cervical cancer screening presented as an easy, and obvious choice; (2) Footing and the use of statistics to add credibility to posts; (3) Morality positioning and shaming of non-attenders. The findings suggest that in response to such campaigns there is an element of online 'othering' in terms of shaming non-attenders and attempting to delegitimise reasons for non-attendance.Conclusion: Whilst health promotion campaigns should be designed to empower individuals to make informed choices, at times they can lead to stigmatisation of those who do not conform. Future campaigns should focus more on understanding the reasons why women do not attend without dismissing them.

Cancer morbidity trends and regional differences in England-A Bayesian analysis

Reliable modelling of the dynamics of cancer morbidity risk is important, not least due to its significant impact on healthcare and related policies. We identify morbidity trends and regional differences in England for all-cancer and type-specific incidence between 1981 and 2016. We use Bayesian modelling to estimate cancer morbidity incidence at various age, year, gender, and region levels. Our analysis shows increasing trends in most rates and marked regional variations that also appear to intensify through time in most cases. All-cancer rates have increased significantly, with the highest increase in East, North West and North East. The absolute difference between the rates in the highest- and lowest-incidence region, per 100,000 people, has widened from 39 (95% CI 33-45) to 86 (78-94) for females, and from 94 (85-104) to 116 (105-127) for males. Lung cancer incidence for females has shown the highest increase in Yorkshire and the Humber, while for males it has declined in all regions with the highest decrease in London. The gap between the highest- and lowest-incidence region for females has widened from 47 (42-51) to 94 (88-100). Temporal change in in bowel cancer risk is less manifested, with regional heterogeneity also declining. Prostate cancer incidence has increased with the highest increase in London, and the regional gap has expanded from 33 (30-36) to 76 (69-83). For breast cancer incidence the highest increase has occurred in North East, while the regional variation shows a less discernible increase. The analysis reveals that there are important regional differences in the incidence of all-type and type-specific cancers, and that most of these regional differences become more pronounced over time. A significant increase in regional variation has been demonstrated for most types of cancer examined here, except for bowel cancer where differences have narrowed.

Trends in cervical cancer and its precursor forms to evaluate screening policies in a mid-sized Northeastern Brazilian city

Cervical cancer is a health issue that disproportionately affects developing countries, where the Papanicolaou test (Pap smear) remains an important screening tool. Brazilian government recommendations have focused screening on the female population aged from 25 to 64 years old. In this study, we examined the incidence and mortality rates of invasive cervical cancer lesions and the incidence rates of in situ precancerous cervical lesions, aiming to calculate their respective statistics over time in a mid-sized Brazilian city, Aracaju. The 1996-2015 database from the Aracaju Cancer Registry and Mortality Information System was used to calculate age standardized rates for all invasive cervical tumors (International code of diseases, ICD-10: C53) and preinvasive cervical lesions (ICD-10: D06) in the following patient age ranges; ≤ 24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64 and ≥ 65 years old. We identified 1,030 cancer cases, 1,871 in situ lesions and 334 deaths. Using the Joinpoint Regression Program, we calculated the annual percentage incidence changes and our analyses show that cervical cancer incidence decreased up to 2008, increased up to 2012 and decreased again thereafter, a significant trend in all age groups from 25 years. The incidence of precursor lesions increased from 1996 to 2005 and has since decreased, a result significant in all age groups until 64 years. Cervical cancer mortality has decreased by 3.8% annually and trend analysis indicates that Pap smears have been effective in decreasing cancer incidence and mortality. However, recent trends shown here show a decreasing incidence of in situ lesions and may indicate either a real decrease or incomplete catchment. Thus, we suggest health policies should be re-considered and include sufficient screening and HPV vaccination strategies to avoid cervical cancer resurgence in the population.

Thyroid Incidentalomas in Association With Low-Dose Computed Tomography in the National Lung Screening Trial

Advances in cancer screening methods have opened avenues for incidental findings and cancer overdiagnosis. We performed a secondary analysis of the National Lung Screening Trial (enrollment from 2002-2004), a randomized controlled trial comparing low-dose computed tomography (LDCT; n = 26,722) with chest radiography (CXR; n = 26,732) for lung cancer detection, to examine incidental findings related to thyroid cancer (ThCa). Three screening rounds were included, and median follow-up was 6.6 years for LDCT and 6.5 years for CXR. Radiologists reported lung and non-lung-related abnormalities. In the LDCT arm, 5.7%, 4.7%, and 4.5% of participants had abnormalities above the diaphragm (AADs) detected at baseline, year 1, and year 2, respectively, compared with 2.3%, 1.5%, and 1.3% in the CXR arm. In the LDCT arm, 205 AADs (7.0%) were thyroid-related. Overall, 60 ThCas were reported, 35 in the LDCT arm and 25 in the CXR arm (P = 0.2). In the LDCT arm, participants with a prior AAD had a 7.8-fold increased risk (95% confidence interval: 4.0, 15.1) of ThCa compared with those who did not have an AAD. Early and persistent excess of ThCas diagnosed earlier in the LDCT arm suggests overdiagnosis. The use of sensitive screening modalities for early detection of lung cancer might result in the discovery of thyroid incidentalomas.

Estimating the magnitude of cancer overdiagnosis in Australia

Objectives

To estimate the proportion of cancer diagnoses in Australia that might reasonably be attributed to overdiagnosis by comparing current and past lifetime risks of cancer.

Design, setting, and participants

Routinely collected Australian Institute of Health and Welfare national data were analysed to estimate recent (2012) and historical (1982) lifetime risks (adjusted for competing risk of death and changes in risk factors) of diagnoses with five cancers: prostate, breast, renal, thyroid cancers, and melanoma.

Main outcome measure

Difference in lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2012, interpreted as probable overdiagnosis.

Results

For women, absolute lifetime risk increased by 3.4 percentage points for breast cancer (invasive cancers, 1.7 percentage points), 0.6 percentage point for renal cancer, 1.0 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 5.1 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 0.7 percentage point). An estimated 22% of breast cancers (invasive cancers, 13%), 58% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 54% of melanomas (invasive melanoma, 15%) were overdiagnosed, or 18% of all cancer diagnoses (8% of invasive cancer diagnoses). For men, absolute lifetime risk increased by 8.2 percentage points for prostate cancer, 0.8 percentage point for renal cancer, 0.4 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 8.0 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 1.5 percentage points). An estimated 42% of prostate cancers, 42% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 58% of melanomas (invasive melanomas, 22%) were overdiagnosed, or 24% of all cancer diagnoses (16% of invasive cancer diagnoses). Alternative assumptions slightly modified the estimates for overdiagnosis of breast cancer and melanoma.

Conclusions

About 11 000 cancers in women and 18 000 in men may be overdiagnosed each year. Rates of overdiagnosis need to be reduced and health services should monitor emerging areas of overdiagnosis.

Assessing trends of breast cancer and carcinoma in situ to monitor screening policies in developing settings

There have been arguments about the role of breast cancer screening at the population level, and some points of controversy have arisen, such the establishment of organized screening policies and the age at which to begin screening. The real benefit of screening has been questioned because the results of this practice may increase the diagnosis of indolent lesions without decreasing mortality due to breast cancer. The authors have proposed a study of incidence and mortality trends for breast cancer in a developing setting in Brazil to monitor the effectiveness of the official recommendations that prioritize the age group from 50 to 69 years. The database of the Cancer Registry and the Mortality Information System was used to calculate age-standardized and age-specific rates, which were then used to calculate incidence and mortality trends using the Joinpoint Regression Program. The results showed stability in trends across all ages and age-specific groups in both incidence and mortality. In conclusion, we found that incidence and mortality rates are compatible with those in regions with similar human development indexes, and trends have demonstrated stabilization. Thus, we do not endorse changes in the official recommendations to conduct screening for ages other than 50 to 69 years, nor should policy makers implement organized screening strategies.

The Cancer Drugs Fund in Practice and Under the New Framework

BACKGROUND

The Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) was established in 2010 to improve access to treatments not routinely available. Having widely overspent, stricter budgeting rules were introduced in 2016. The CDF can now only include treatments with potential to be cost effective once sufficient data are collected.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to explore the process and criteria used for consideration of treatments under the new CDF framework and to describe the extent of evidence collection.

METHODS

We identified CDF list, UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and Scottish Medicines Consortium documents (10 May 2018). Data were collected on drugs and indications, reasons for inclusion in the CDF, data collection, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and corresponding recommendations for Scotland.

RESULTS

In total, 12 drugs were listed on the CDF in 17 indications, 12 of which were considered end-of-life care. The most common cancers were non-small-cell lung (n = 4), urothelial (n = 3), lymphocytic leukaemia (n = 2) and multiple myeloma (n = 2). The companies' ICERs were generally lower than those from the committee and the evidence review group. Drugs were included in the CDF for 6-42 months, with the majority included for ≥18 months. Data were frequently collected on overall survival (n = 16) and progression-free survival (n = 5) using NHS systems and, frequently, ongoing trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Data collection frequently included overall survival and exceeded the 2 years recommended in the CDF strategy. It appears the CDF is allowing patients access to drugs long before they may become available for routine use. Our results are limited by the availability of published information and the small dataset.