New risk prediction model of coronary heart disease in participants with and without diabetes: Assessments of the Framingham risk and Suita scores in 3-year longitudinal database in a Japanese population

A literature review of quality assessment and applicability to HTA of risk prediction models of coronary heart disease in patients with diabetes

This literature review had two objectives: to identify models for predicting the risk of coronary heart diseases in patients with diabetes (DM); and to assess model quality in terms of risk of bias (RoB) and applicability for the purpose of health technology assessment (HTA). We undertook a targeted review of journal articles published in English, Dutch, Chinese, or Spanish in 5 databases from 1st January 2016 to 18th December 2022, and searched three systematic reviews for the models published after 2012. We used PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool) to assess RoB, and used findings from Betts et al. 2019, which summarized recommendations and criticisms of HTA agencies on cardiovascular risk prediction models, to assess model applicability for the purpose of HTA. As a result, 71 % and 67 % models reporting C-index showed good discrimination abilities (C-index >= 0.7). Of the 26 model studies and 30 models identified, only one model study showed low RoB in all domains, and no model was fully applicable for HTA. Since the major cause of high RoB is inappropriate use of analysis method, we advise clinicians to carefully examine the model performance declared by model developers, and to trust a model if all PROBAST domains except analysis show low RoB and at least one validation study conducted in the same setting (e.g. country) is available. Moreover, since general model applicability is not informative for HTA, novel adapted tools may need to be developed.

Predicting coronary heart disease in Chinese diabetics using machine learning

Diabetes, a common chronic disease worldwide, can induce vascular complications, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), which is also one of the main causes of human death. It is of great significance to study the factors of diabetic patients complicated with CHD for understanding the occurrence of diabetes/CHD comorbidity. In this study, by analyzing the risk of CHD in more than 300,000 diabetes patients in southwest China, an artificial intelligence (AI) model was proposed to predict the risk of diabetes/CHD comorbidity. Firstly, we statistically analyzed the distribution of four types of features (basic demographic information, laboratory indicators, medical examination, and questionnaire) in comorbidities, and evaluated the predictive performance of three traditional machine learning methods (eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Logistic regression). In addition, we have identified nine important features, including age, WHtR, BMI, stroke, smoking, chronic lung disease, drinking and MSP. Finally, the model produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.701 on the test samples. These findings can provide personalized guidance for early CHD warning for diabetic populations.

Evidence supporting the choice of a new cardiovascular risk equation for Australia

This article reviews the risk equations recommended for use in international cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines and assesses their suitability for use in Australia against a set of a priori defined selection criteria. The review and assessment were commissioned by the National Heart Foundation of Australia on behalf of the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance to inform recommendations on CVD risk estimation as part of the 2023 update of the Australian CVD risk assessment and management guidelines. Selected international risk equations were assessed against eight selection criteria: development using contemporary data; inclusion of established cardiovascular risk factors; inclusion of ethnicity and deprivation measures; prediction of a broad selection of fatal and non-fatal CVD outcomes; population representativeness; model performance; external validation in an Australian dataset; and the ability to be recalibrated or modified. Of the ten risk prediction equations reviewed, the New Zealand PREDICT equation met seven of the eight selection criteria, and met additional usability criteria aimed at assessing the ability to apply the risk equation in practice in Australia.

Significance of coronary artery calcification for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events: results from the NADESICO study in Japan

BACKGROUND

We aimed to determine the usefulness and sex differences of assessment of coronary artery calcification (CAC) with cardiovascular risk factors and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in Japanese patients.

METHODS

In a nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study, 1187 patients with suspected coronary artery disease who underwent coronary computed tomography were enrolled. MACE included cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, and hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or aortic disease. The concordance (C)-statistics were used to assess the relationships among the Suita risk score, CAC score, and incident MACE, with emphasis on sex differences.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 982 patients (mean age, 64.7 ± 6.6 years; 53.9 % male patients). MACE developed in 65 male and 21 female patients during a median follow-up of 1480 days. The C-statistics calculated using Suita score for MACE were 0.650, 0.633, and 0.569 in overall, male, and female patients, respectively. In overall patients, the C-statistic significantly increased in combined models of Agatston CAC scores of ≥100, 200, 300, or 400 and the Suita score. In each sex, the C-statistics significantly increased in the model that added an Agatston CAC score of ≥100 and ≥ 200 (+0.049 and + 0.057) in male patients, and ≥ 400 (+0.119) in females, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding assessment of Agatston CAC scores to Suita score was useful to improve the predictive ability for future MACE in Japanese patients. Agatston CAC scores of ≥100 or 200 in male and ≥ 400 in female patients in addition to Suita score improved the MACE risk prediction.

Cardiovascular risk scores in asymptomatic carotid stenosis: A validation study with ultrasonographic parameters

We evaluated the feasibility of the Framingham stroke risk score (FSRS) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores for asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS). In addition, we developed novel risk prediction models for ischemic stroke and composite outcomes by combining ultrasonographic parameters and conventional cardiovascular risk scores. We retrospectively enrolled 612 patients with ACS greater than 50% over 7 years and evaluated them using transcranial Doppler and carotid duplex ultrasonography. In total, 150 patients were included in the analysis. During the mean 5-year follow-up, 6 ischemic strokes and 25 composite events were detected. Among all ultrasonographic parameters, only a higher peak-systolic velocity/end-diastolic velocity ratio was detected and significantly associated with an increased risk of relevant ischemic stroke (hazard ratio: 1.502, 95% confidence interval: 1.036–1.968). The C-statistics of the FSRS and ASCVD risk scores were 0.646 and 0.649, respectively, for relevant ischemic stroke, and 0.612 and 0.649, respectively, for composite outcomes. C-statistics of the FSRS and ASCVD risk scores combined with ultrasonographic parameters increased to 0.937 and 0.941, respectively, for ischemic stroke, and 0.856 and 0.886, respectively, for composite outcomes. The study suggests that inclusion of ultrasonographic parameters in conventional cardiovascular scores helps identify the risk of further vascular events in ACS patients.

Glucose variability and predicted cardiovascular risk after gastrectomy

PURPOSE

To investigate the correlation between glycemic trends and cardiovascular risk after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

METHODS

We enrolled 105 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy at our hospital between October 2017 and July 2020. Postoperative glucose concentrations, trends, and patterns were recorded using a continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) device. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham stroke risk profile score (FSRPS), the Framingham risk score (FRS), and the Suita score. We examined the correlations between glycemic variability and cardiovascular risk scores.

RESULTS

There were significant differences in the standard deviation (SD) of glucose levels between the high and low FSRPS groups (p = 0.049), the high and low FRS groups (p = 0.011), and the high and low Suita score groups (p = 0.044). The SD of glucose levels was significantly higher in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) (p < 0.001) and those who underwent total gastrectomy (TG) (p = 0.017). Additionally, the CGM data available for 38 patients 1 year post-gastrectomy were analyzed for glucose level dynamics, and the SD was found to be significantly higher than that at 1 month (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that long-term follow-up and therapeutic strategies tailored to glycemic trends may be necessary for gastric cancer patients after gastrectomy, especially those with DM and those who have undergone TG, to prevent cardiovascular events.

RNF213 p.R4810K Variant Carriers with Intracranial Arterial Stenosis Have a Low Atherosclerotic Burden

AIM

The ring finger protein 213 gene (RNF213) p.R4810K variant is a major susceptibility gene for intracranial arterial stenosis in East Asia. We hypothesized that if intracranial arterial stenosis is induced by a non-atherosclerotic mechanism similar to moyamoya disease, the patients with RNF213 p.R4810K variant may have a lower cumulative atherosclerotic burden than the non-carriers.

METHODS

A total of 112 participants with intracranial arterial stenosis were enrolled in this multicenter cross-sectional study. We compared the prevalence of atherosclerotic risk factors and three different cardiovascular risk scores (Essen Stroke Risk Score, Framingham Risk Score, and Suita Risk Score) between the RNF213 p.R4810K variant carriers and non-carriers. Patients with moyamoya disease were excluded from the study.

RESULTS

The RNF213 p.R4810K variant carriers were younger than the non-carriers (P＜0.001). The prevalence of each atherosclerotic risk factor was not significant, but it tended to be lower in the variant carriers. The Essen Stroke Risk Score (carriers: 2.3±1.5 vs. non-carriers: 2.9±1.5, P=0.047), Framingham Risk Score (10.7±6.4 vs. 15.3±6.2, P=0.001), and Suita Risk Score (35.4±15.8 vs. 48.7±15.2, P＜0.001) were significantly lower in the variant carriers. Among the three risk scores, the Suita score showed the highest predictive accuracy for the variant carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

RNF213 p.R4810K variant carriers have a lower cumulative atherosclerotic burden than non-carriers among patients with intracranial arterial stenosis. New therapeutic approaches beyond the standard management of atherosclerotic risk factors are required to prevent the development of intracranial arterial stenosis.

Clinical Significance of Intermediate-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Determination as a Predictor for Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Middle-Aged Men

Background: Not only low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol but also non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol (VLDL-C), and intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL) cholesterol (IDL-C) are reported to be significant risk markers for coronary heart disease (CHD). We reported the relevance of IDL-C to Framingham risk score (F-score), but the present study addressed the relevance of IDL-C to Suita score (S-score), a risk score for coronary heart disease (CHD) developed for the Japanese individuals in addition to F-score.

Methods: The cholesterol levels of lipoproteins, including triglyceride (TG)-rich lipoproteins (IDL and VLDL), were measured by an anion exchange high-performance liquid chromatography (AEX-HPLC). This study enrolled 476 men, aged mean 51 years and free of CHD and stroke.

Results: Non-HDL-C, IDL-C, and VLDL-C significantly correlated with F-score and S-score. In the multiple stepwise regression analysis, IDL-C as well as body mass index (BMI) significantly correlated with both F-score and S-score in both the total subjects and the subjects without drug therapy. The multivariate logistic analysis with the model composed of BMI and IDL-C as the predictor variables demonstrated that 1 SD increase in IDL-C was an independent predictor for 10-year CHD risk >10% of F-score (OR 1.534, 95% CI 1.266–1.859, p < 0001) and that of S-score (OR 1.372, 95% CI 1.130–1.667, p = 0.0014) in the total subjects. Even in the subjects without the drug therapy, the increased IDL-C, as well as BMI, were significant predictors for 10-year CHD risk >10% of S-score as well as F-score.

Conclusion: These results suggest the significant relevance of the increased IDL-C for CHD risk scores in middle-aged men free of CHD and stroke. Further investigations are needed in women and elderly subjects.

MAFLD better predicts the progression of atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk than NAFLD: Generalized estimating equation approach

AIM

Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) partly overlaps with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Thus, using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach, we aimed to investigate the difference in worsening of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk between patients with MAFLD and NAFLD. We also investigated factors related to the difference between the two groups.

METHODS

We enrolled 2306 subjects with fatty liver (MAFLD 80.7%, NAFLD 63.4%). Subjects with MAFLD/NAFLD were sub-classified into three groups: NAFLD with no metabolic dysfunction (non-Met NAFLD), overlapping, and MAFLD with moderate alcohol consumption (mod-Alc MAFLD). ASCVD risk was estimated by non-invasive tests, including the Suita score. An event was defined as worsening of these scores from the low-risk to the high-risk group. Independent factors for the event were analyzed by Cox regression analysis with the GEE.

RESULTS

In Cox regression analysis, MAFLD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.15, p = 0.014) and alcohol consumption (20-39 g/day; HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.26-2.36, p = 0.001) were independently associated with worsening of the Suita score. In a subanalysis, the incidence of the event was significantly lower in non-Met NAFLD than in the overlapping group (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.98, p = 0.042). However, no significant difference was observed in the incidence between the overlapping and mod-Alc MAFLD group (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.89-1.58, p = 0.235).

CONCLUSIONS

The GEE approach demonstrates that MAFLD better identifies patients with worsening of ASCVD risk than NAFLD. Moreover, the superiority of MAFLD over NAFLD was due to the presence of metabolic dysfunction rather than moderate alcohol consumption.

Promoting analysis of real-world data: Prospects for preventive cardiology in Japan

According to the statistics for 2018 in Japan, cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease were the most common causes of death (cardiovascular disease with 208,210, cerebrovascular disease with 108,165), and these two diseases account for 23.2% of all deaths. Stroke, especially cerebral hemorrhage, was the main cause of death in Japan after World War II. Along with improved management of hypertension, the mortality rate from cerebral hemorrhage reached a high of 266.7 per 100,000 men in 1960 and 213.9 per 100,000 women in 1951, then decreased to 15.9 per 100,000 men and 6.9 per 100,000 women in 2013. However, mortality from lifestyle-related diseases such as metabolic syndrome and ischemic heart disease has been on the rise since 1990 due to the westernization of diet, urban lifestyles, and lack of exercise habits. Moreover, since aging is the greatest risk factor for heart failure, the number of patients with heart failure in Japan will inevitably increase in the future. A large amount of evidence has demonstrated that prevention and proper management of risk factors can reduce the future incidence of cardiovascular disease. Specific health checkups (metabolic syndrome checkups) have been carried out in Japan since 2008. Big data on physical examinations are valuable real-world data that can be utilized for clinical research. As the importance of preventive cardiology increases in the future, we should analyze the real-world data from health checkups in Japan in detail and disseminate these results to clinical practice, which will contribute to development of preventive cardiology and the promotion of public health.

Regional Variations of Insulin Secretion and Insulin Sensitivity in Japanese Participants With Normal Glucose Tolerance

Purpose: Regional differences in dietary patterns in Asian countries might affect the balance of insulin response and sensitivity. However, this notion is yet to be validated. To clarify the regional differences in the insulin response and sensitivity and their relationship to nutrients, we compared the insulin secretory response during an oral glucose tolerance test in Japanese participants. Methods: This observational retrospective cohort study analyzed the data from participants with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) from four distinct areas of Japan with regard to the food environment: Fukushima, Nagano, Tokushima, and Okinawa based on data available in the Japanese National Health Insurance database. Results: Although the glucose levels were comparable among the four regions, the insulin responses were significantly different among the regions. This difference was observed even within the same BMI category. The plot between the insulin sensitivity index (Matsuda index) and insulin_AUC/glucose_AUC or the insulinogenic index showed hyperbolic relationships with variations in regions. The indices of insulin secretion correlated positively with fat intake and negatively with the intake of fish, carbohydrate calories, and dietary fiber. Conclusions: We found that significant regional differences in insulin response and insulin sensitivity in Japanese participants and that nutritional factors may be linked to these differences independently of body size/adiposity. Insulin response and insulin sensitivity can vary among adult individuals, even within the same race and the same country, and are likely affected by environmental/lifestyle factors as well as genetic traits.

Higher baseline uric acid concentration is associated with non-attainment of optimal blood pressure

A significant relationship exists between elevated uric acid concentration and both prevalent and incident hypertension; however, data regarding the influence of higher uric acid concentration at baseline on blood pressure control by antihypertensive drugs is scarce. Thus, a prospective cohort study was performed. The study outcome was the non-attainment of optimal blood pressure (NOBP). NOBP level was defined according to the Japanese hypertension guideline. This study enrolled a Japanese community-based cohort (N = 8,664; age 65.5 ± 6.4 years; women, 55.0%) who were not using antihypertensive drugs on the first visit for a health check-up program but started using antihypertensive drug(s) on the next-year visit. The participants were classified into quartiles based basic uric acid concentration. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for NOBP as the primary outcome measure. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that quartile 4 was significantly associated with NOBP when quartile 1 was set as the reference (OR (95% confidence interval), 1.36 (1.16-1.59), p<0.01), adjusted for potential confounders, such as age, sex, body mass index, presence of diabetes/dyslipidemia/chronic kidney disease (CKD), history of cardiovascular disease, daily drinking, and current smoking. In the subgroup analysis of female participants and participants with diabetes and CKD, a significant association was observed between +1 mg/dL of uric acid and NOBP. Higher uric acid concentration at baseline was significantly associated with NOBP on the first use of antihypertensive drug(s).