Evaluation of the Diabetes Screening Component of a National Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Programme in England: a Retrospective Cohort Study

What happens after an NHS Health Check? A survey and realist review

Background

The National Health Service Health Check in England aims to provide adults aged 40 to 74 with an assessment of their risk of developing cardiovascular disease and to offer advice to help manage and reduce this risk. The programme is commissioned by local authorities and delivered by a range of providers in different settings, although primarily in general practices. This project focused on variation in the advice, onward referrals and prescriptions offered to attendees following their health check.

Objectives

(1) Map recent programme delivery across England via a survey of local authorities; (2) conduct a realist review to enable understanding of how the National Health Service Health Check programme works in different settings, for different groups; (3) provide recommendations to improve delivery.

Design

Survey of local authorities and realist review of the literature.

Review methods

Realist review is a theory-driven, interpretive approach to evidence synthesis that seeks to explain why, when and for whom outcomes occur. We gathered published research and grey literature (including local evaluation documents and conference materials) via searching and supplementary methods. Extracted data were synthesised using a realist logic of analysis to develop an understanding of important contexts that affect the delivery of National Health Service Health Checks, and underlying mechanisms that produce outcomes related to our project focus.

Results

Our findings highlight the variation in National Health Service Health Check delivery models across England. Commissioners, providers and attendees understand the programme's purpose in different ways. When understood primarily as an opportunity to screen for disease, responsibility for delivery and outcomes rests with primary care, and there is an emphasis on volume of checks delivered, gathering essential data and communicating risk. When understood as an opportunity to prompt and support behaviour change, more emphasis is placed on delivery of advice and referrals to 'lifestyle services'. Practical constraints limit what can be delivered within the programme's remit. Public health funding restricts delivery options and links with onward services, while providers may struggle to deliver effective checks when faced with competing priorities. Attendees' responses to the programme are affected by features of delivery models and the constraints they face within their own lives.

Limitations

Survey response rate lower than anticipated; review findings limited by the availability and quality of the literature.

Conclusions and implications

The purpose and remit of the National Health Service Health Check programme should be clarified, considering prevailing attitudes about its value (especially among providers) and what can be delivered within existing resources. Some variation in delivery is likely to be appropriate to meet local population needs, but lack of clarity for the programme contributes to a 'postcode lottery' effect in the support offered to attendees after a check. Our findings raise important questions about whether the programme itself and services that it may feed into are adequately resourced to achieve positive outcomes for attendees, and whether current delivery models may produce inequitable outcomes.

Future work

Policy-makers and commissioners should consider the implications of the findings of this project; future research should address the relative scarcity of studies focused on the end of the National Health Service Health Check pathway.

Study registration

PROSPERO registration CRD42020163822.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme (NIHR129209).

Impact of applying a diabetes risk score in primary care on change in physical activity: a pragmatic cluster randomised trial

AIM

There is little evidence of the impact of diabetes risk scores on individual diabetes risk factors, motivation for behaviour changes and mental health. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of applying a noninvasive diabetes risk score in primary care as component of routine health checks on physical activity and secondary outcomes.

METHODS

Cluster randomised trial, in which primary care physicians (PCPs), randomised (1:1) by minimisation, enrolled participants with statutory health insurance without known diabetes, ≥ 35 years of age with a body mass index ≥ 27.0 kg/m². The German Diabetes Risk Score was applied as add-on to the standard routine health check, conducted in the controls. Primary outcome was the difference in participants' physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaire) after 12 months. Secondary outcomes included body mass index, perceived health, anxiety, depression, and motivation for lifestyle change. Analysis was by intention-to-treat principle using mixed models.

RESULTS

36 PCPs were randomised; remaining 30 PCPs (intervention: n = 16; control: n = 14) recruited 315 participants (intervention: n = 153; controls: n = 162). A slight increase in physical activity was observed in the intervention group with an adjusted mean change of 388 (95% confidence interval: - 235; 1011) metabolic equivalents minutes per week. There were no relevant changes in secondary outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of a noninvasive diabetes risk score alone is not effective in promoting physical activity in primary care.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03234322, registration date: July 31, 2017).

Evaluation of the North West London Diabetes Foot Care Transformation Project: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation

Introduction

Diabetes foot ulceration (DFU) presents an enormous burden to those living with diabetes and to the local health systems and economies. There is an increasing interest in implementing integrated care models to enhance the quality of care for people living with diabetes and related complications and the value of co-production approaches to achieve sustainable change. This paper aims to describe the evaluation methodology for the North West London (NWL) Diabetes Foot Care Transformation project.

Description

A mixed methods design including: i) a quasi-experimental quantitative analysis assessing the impact of the implementation of the local secondary care multi-disciplinary diabetes foot team clinics on service utilisation and clinical outcomes (amputations and number of healed patients); ii) a phenomenological, qualitative study to explore patient and staff experience; and iii) a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (pre and post 2017) to evaluate the programme cost-effectiveness.

Discussion and Conclusion

Demonstrating the impact of multidisciplinary, integrated care models and the value of co-production approaches is important for health providers and commissioners trying to improve health outcome. Evaluation is also needed to identify strategies to overcome barriers which might have reduced the impact of the programme and key elements for improvement.

Evaluation of the effects of the national diabetes control and prevention program on a sample of iranian people with type 2 diabetes

Diabetes prevention programs have been developed in the different countries and it is therefore necessary to gain a better understanding of factors affecting the effectiveness of these programs for each society. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the National Diabetes Control and Prevention Program (NDCPP) on the biochemical and anthropometric indices among a sample of Iranian patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A total of 384 patients with T2DM from the primary health care system of Tehran and Tabriz cities during January to June 2020, were included in the study. A two-part questionnaire consisting of items related to socio-economic and demographic characteristics was used and biochemical and anthropometric indices were measured at the beginning and the end of the 3-month intervention period. There was a significant difference in fasting blood sugar (FBS), hemoglobin glycosides (HbA1 C), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and weight before and after the NDCPP (P <  0.001). Also, there was significant improvement in carbohydrate (P = 0.015) and protein intake (P = 0.027) after the NDCPP compared to before the study. No significant difference was observed in waist circumference (WC) (P = 0.689), body mass index (P = 0.784), diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.647), and other dietary nutrient intake before and after the NDCPP. Repeated measure ANOVA revealed a significant decrease in FBS (Time effect P = 0.019) and weight (Time effect P = 0.006) after the NDCPP. Also, residing in different cities had a significant effect on FBS (time×city effect P <  0.001), HbA1 C (time×city effect P <  0.001), and SBP (time×city effect P = 0.037) after the NDCPP. The NDCPP resulted in weight loss, improved HbA1 C, and FBS. These findings suggested that NDCPP had a positive effect on controlling T2DM among Iranian population and can be considered as a way to prevent complications of T2DM.

Interface of Multiple Sclerosis, Depression, Vascular Disease, and Mortality: A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study

Background and Objectives

To assess whether the association among depression, vascular disease, and mortality differs in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) compared with age-, sex-, and general practice–matched controls.

Methods

We conducted a population-based retrospective matched cohort study between January 1, 1987, and September 30, 2018, that included people with MS and matched controls without MS from England, stratified by depression status. We used time-varying Cox proportional hazard regression models to test the association among MS, depression, and time to incident vascular disease and mortality. Analyses were also stratified by sex.

Results

We identified 12,251 people with MS and 72,572 matched controls. At baseline, 21% of people with MS and 9% of controls had depression. Compared with matched controls without depression, people with MS had an increased risk of incident vascular disease regardless of whether they had comorbid depression. The 10-year hazard of all-cause mortality was 1.75-fold greater in controls with depression (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.59–1.91), 3.88-fold greater in people with MS without depression (95% CI 3.66–4.10), and 5.43-fold greater in people with MS and depression (95% CI 4.88–5.96). Overall, the interaction between MS status and depression was synergistic, with 14% of the observed effect attributable to the interaction. Sex-stratified analyses confirmed differences in hazard ratios.

Discussion

Depression is associated with increased risks of incident vascular disease and mortality in people with MS, and the effects of depression and MS on all-cause mortality are synergistic. Further studies should evaluate whether effectively treating depression is associated with a reduced risk of vascular disease and mortality.

NHS Health Check programme: a protocol for a realist review

INTRODUCTION

The NHS Health Check aims to identify individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among the adult population in England. The Health Check includes calculation of CVD risk and discussion of pharmacological and lifestyle approaches to manage risk, including referral to lifestyle support services. The programme is commissioned by Local Authorities (LAs) and is delivered by a range of different providers in different settings. There is significant variation in activity, with uptake ranging from 25% to 85% in different areas, and clear evidence of variation in implementation and delivery practice.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We aim to understand how the NHS Health Check programme works in different settings, for different groups, so that we can recommend improvements to maximise intended outcomes. To do so, we will undertake a realist review and a survey of LA public health teams. Our review will follow Pawson's five iterative stages: (1) locate existing theories, (2) search for evidence, (3) article selection, (4) extract and organise data and (5) synthesise evidence and draw conclusions. Our review will include documents describing local implementation alongside published research studies. We will recruit a stakeholder group (including Public Health England, commissioners and providers of Health Checks, plus members of the public and patients) to advise us throughout. Our survey will be sent to all 152 LAs in England to gather detailed information on programme delivery (including COVID-19-related changes) and available referral services. This will enable us to map delivery across England and relate these data to programme outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this review. For the survey, we have received approval from the University of Kent Research Ethics Committee. Our findings will be used to develop recommendations on tailoring, implementation and design strategies to improve delivery of the NHS Health Check in different settings, for different groups.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020163822.

Evaluating the Risk of Macrovascular Events and Mortality Among People With Multiple Sclerosis in England

Importance

People with multiple sclerosis (MS) are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality; however, evidence from population-based studies is sparse.

Objective

To assess whether the risk of macrovascular events and mortality differs among people with MS compared with a matched population without MS in England.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based retrospective matched cohort study was conducted in general practices registered with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England between January 1, 1987, and September 30, 2018, with a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.3 (6.5) years. A total of 12 251 patients with MS were matched with up to 6 people without MS (n = 72 572) by age, sex, and general practice. People with 3 or more diagnoses of MS recorded during the study period were included. The first MS diagnosis was considered as index date.

Exposures

Multiple sclerosis status. Analyses were also stratified by sex.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Main outcomes were acute coronary syndrome, cerebrovascular disease, any macrovascular disease (including peripheral arterial disease), and mortality (all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease-specific mortality). Cox proportional hazards regression and Fine and Gray proportional subhazard regression models were used to assess differences in rates.

Results

A total of 12 251 people with MS (66.9% women; mean [SD] age, 44.9 [13.3] years) were matched with 72 572 people without MS (69.8% women; mean [SD] age, 44.9 [13.3] years). As compared with people without MS, people with MS were associated with a 28% increased hazard of acute coronary syndrome (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.09-1.51), 59% increased hazard of cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.32-1.92), 32% increased hazard of any macrovascular disease (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.15-1.52), 3.5-fold increased hazard of all-cause mortality (HR, 3.46; 95% CI, 3.28-3.65), and 1.5-fold increased hazard in cardiovascular disease mortality (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.27-1.71). Differences in macrovascular events were more pronounced among women than men. Mortality risk was also higher for women than men. Treatment with lipid-lowering medications (mainly statins) was associated with lower mortality rates among people with MS.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that MS is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease that is not completely accounted for by traditional vascular risk factors. Given the adverse effects of these comorbidities on outcomes in patients with MS, further investigation is needed.

NHS Health Checks: an observational study of equity and outcomes 2009-2017

Background

The NHS Health Check cardiovascular prevention programme is now 10 years old.

Aim

To describe NHS Heath Check attendance, new diagnoses, and treatment in relation to equity indicators.

Design and setting

A nationally representative database derived from 1500 general practices from 2009–2017.

Method

The authors compared NHS Health Check attendance and new diagnoses and treatments by age, sex, ethnic group, and deprivation.

Results

In 2013–2017, 590 218 (16.9%) eligible people aged 40–74 years attended an NHS Health Check and 2 902 598 (83.1%) did not attend. South Asian ethnic groups were most likely to attend compared to others, and females more than males. New diagnoses were more likely in attendees than non-attendees: hypertension 25/1000 in attendees versus 9/1000 in non-attendees; type 2 diabetes 8/1000 versus 3/1000; and chronic kidney disease (CKD) 7/1000 versus 4/1000. In people aged ≥65 years, atrial fibrillation was newly diagnosed in 5/1000 attendees and 3/1000 non-attendees, and for dementia 2/1000 versus 1/1000, respectively. Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and CKD were more likely in more deprived groups, and in South Asian, Black African, and Black Caribbean ethnic groups. Attendees were more likely to be prescribed statins (26/1000) than non-attendees (8/1000), and antihypertensive medicines (25/1000 versus 13/1000 non-attendees). However, of the 117 963 people with ≥10% CVD risk who were eligible for statins, only 9785 (8.3%) were prescribed them.

Conclusion

Uptake of NHS Health Checks remains low. Attendees were more likely than non-attendees to be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and CKD, and to receive treatment with statins and antihypertensives. Most attendees received neither treatment nor referral. Of those eligible for statins, <10% were treated. Policy reviews should consider a targeted approach prioritising those at highest CVD risk for face-to-face contact and consider other options for those at lower CVD risk.

Lifestyle Intervention With or Without Lay Volunteers to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes in People With Impaired Fasting Glucose and/or Nondiabetic Hyperglycemia: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Nearly half of the older adult population has diabetes or a high-risk intermediate glycemic category, but we still lack trial evidence for effective type 2 diabetes prevention interventions in most of the current high-risk glycemic categories.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a group-based lifestyle intervention (with or without trained volunteers with type 2 diabetes) reduced the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes in populations with a high-risk glycemic category.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention Study was a parallel, 3-arm, group-based, randomized clinical trial conducted with up to 46 months of follow-up from August 2011 to January 2019 at 135 primary care practices and 8 intervention sites in the East of England. We identified 141 973 people at increased risk of type 2 diabetes, screened 12 778 (9.0%), and randomized those with a high-risk glycemic category, which was either an elevated fasting plasma glucose level alone (≥110 and <126 mg/dL [to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0555]) or an elevated glycated hemoglobin level (≥6.0% to <6.5%; nondiabetic hyperglycemia) with an elevated fasting plasma glucose level (≥100 to <110 mg/dL).

INTERVENTIONS

A control arm receiving usual care (CON), a theory-based lifestyle intervention arm of 6 core and up to 15 maintenance sessions (INT), or the same intervention with support from diabetes prevention mentors, trained volunteers with type 2 diabetes (INT-DPM).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Type 2 diabetes incidence between arms.

RESULTS

In this study, 1028 participants were randomized (INT, 424 [41.2%] [166 women (39.2%)]; INT-DPM, 426 [41.4%] [147 women (34.5%)]; CON, 178 [17.3%] [70 women (%39.3)]) between January 1, 2011, and February 24, 2017. The mean (SD) age was 65.3 (10.0) years, mean (SD) body mass index 31.2 (5) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), and mean (SD) follow-up 24.7 (13.4) months. A total of 156 participants progressed to type 2 diabetes, which comprised 39 of 171 receiving CON (22.8%), 55 of 403 receiving INT (13.7%), and 62 of 414 receiving INT-DPM (15.0%). There was no significant difference between the intervention arms in the primary outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 0.77-1.7; P = .51), but each intervention arm had significantly lower odds of type 2 diabetes (INT: OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.85; P = .01; INT-DPM: OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39-0.96; P = .033; combined: OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.87; P = .01). The effect size was similar in all glycemic, age, and social deprivation groups, and intervention costs per participant were low at $153 (£122).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention lifestyle intervention reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes in current high-risk glycemic categories. Enhancing the intervention with DPM did not further reduce diabetes risk. These translatable results are relevant for current diabetes prevention efforts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry Identifier: ISRCTN34805606.

The Framingham cardiovascular risk score and 5-year progression of multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities can affect the prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). The Framingham risk score is an algorithm that can estimate the 10-year risk of developing macrovascular disease. Our objectives were to evaluate the possible association between the Framingham risk score at baseline and MS relapses, disability, and disease-modifying therapy (DMT) choices over a 5-year follow-up.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study including 251 MS subjects. At baseline, we calculated the Framingham risk score considering the following variables: age, sex, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index. MS outcomes including relapses, disability, and treatments were collected over 5 years. Cox proportional regression models were employed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

A one-point increase in the Framingham risk score was associated with 31% higher risk of relapse (HR = 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.68), 19% higher risk of reaching of EDSS 6.0 (HR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.05, 3.01), and 62% higher risk of DMT escalation (HR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.22, 3.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cardiovascular risk was associated with higher risk of relapses, disability, and DMT escalation in MS. Early identification, correction, and treatment of cardiovascular comorbidities should be carefully considered within MS management.

Association between pre-diabetes and microvascular and macrovascular disease in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The associated risk of vascular disease following diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in people previously identified as having pre-diabetes in real-world settings is unknown. We examined the presence of microvascular and macrovascular disease in individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes by glycemic status within 3 years before diagnosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We identified 159 736 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database in England between 2004 and 2017. We used logistic regression models to compare presence of microvascular (retinopathy and nephropathy) and macrovascular (acute coronary syndrome, cerebrovascular and peripheral arterial disease) disease at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis by prior glycemic status.

RESULTS

Half of the study population (49.9%) had at least one vascular disease, over one-third (37.4%) had microvascular disease, and almost a quarter (23.5%) had a diagnosed macrovascular disease at the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis.Compared with individuals with glycemic values within the normal range, those detected with pre-diabetes before the diagnosis had 76% and 14% increased odds of retinopathy and nephropathy (retinopathy: adjusted OR (AOR) 1.76, 95% CI 1.69 to 1.85; nephropathy: AOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.19), and 7% higher odds of the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12) in fully adjusted models at time of diabetes diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Microvascular and macrovascular diseases are detected in 37%-24% of people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Pre-diabetes before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is associated with increased odds of microvascular disease and acute coronary syndrome. Detection of pre-diabetes might represent an opportunity for reducing the burden of microvascular and macrovascular disease through heightened attention to screening for vascular complications.