Association between emergency department attendances, sociodemographic factors and long-term health conditions in the population of Norfolk and Waveney, England: Cross sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Demand for urgent and emergency health care in England has grown over the last decade, for reasons that are not clear. Changes in population demographics may be a cause. This study investigated associations between individuals' characteristics (including socioeconomic deprivation and long term health conditions (LTC)) and the frequency of emergency department (ED) attendances, in the Norfolk and Waveney subregion of the East of England.

METHODS

The study population was people who were registered with 91 of 106 Norfolk and Waveney general practices during one year from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023. Linked primary and secondary care and geographical data included each individual's sociodemographic characteristics, and number of ED attendances during the same year and, for some individuals, LTCs and number of general practice (GP) appointments. Associations between these factors and ED attendances were estimated using Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

1,027,422 individuals were included of whom 57.4% had GP data on the presence or absence of LTC, and 43.1% had both LTC and general practitioner appointment data. In the total population ED attendances were more frequent in individuals aged under five years, (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.28) compared to 15-35 years); living in more socioeconomically deprived areas (IRR 0.61 (0.60 to 0.63)) for least deprived compared to most deprived,and living closer to the nearest ED. Among individuals with LTC data, each additional LTC was also associated with increased ED attendances (IRR 1.16 (1.15 to 1.16)). Among individuals with LTC and GP appointment data, each additional GP appointment was also associated with increased ED attendances (IRR 1.03 (1.026 to 1.027)).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Norfolk and Waveney population, ED attendance rates were higher for young children and individuals living in more deprived areas and closer to EDs. In individuals with LTC and GP appointment data, both factors were also associated with higher ED attendance.

Strengthening integrated depression services within routine primary health care using the RE-AIM framework in South Africa

Integration of mental health into routine primary health care (PHC) services in low-and middle-income countries is globally accepted to improve health outcomes of other conditions and narrow the mental health treatment gap. Yet implementation remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to identify implementation strategies that improve implementation outcomes of an evidence-based depression care collaborative implementation model integrated with routine PHC clinic services in South Africa. An iterative, quasi-experimental, observational implementation research design, incorporating the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework, was applied to evaluate implementation outcomes of a strengthened package of implementation strategies (stage two) compared with an initial evaluation of the model (stage one). The first stage package was implemented and evaluated in 10 PHC clinics and the second stage strengthened package in 19 PHC clinics (inclusive of the initial 10 clinics) in one resource-scarce district in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Diagnosed service users were more likely to be referred for counselling treatment in the second stage compared with stage one (OR 23.15, SE = 18.03, z = 4.04, 95%CI [5.03-106.49], p < .001). Training in and use of a validated, mandated mental health screening tool, including on-site educational outreach and technical support visits, was an important promoter of nurse-level diagnosis rates (OR 3.75, 95% CI [1.19, 11.80], p = 0.02). Nurses who perceived the integrated care model as acceptable were also more likely to successfully diagnose patients (OR 2.57, 95% CI [1.03-6.40], p = 0.043). Consistent availability of a clinic counsellor was associated with a greater probability of referral (OR 5.9, 95%CI [1.29-27.75], p = 0.022). Treatment uptake among referred service users remained a concern across both stages, with inconsistent co-located counselling services associated with poor uptake. The importance of implementation research for strengthening implementation strategies along the cascade of care for integrating depression care within routine PHC services is highlighted.

Management of chronic conditions in resource limited settings: multi stakeholders' perception and experiences with receiving and providing integrated HIV, diabetes and hypertension services in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

The rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alongside the continuing high burden of HIV poses a serious challenge to middle- and low-income countries' healthcare systems. Pilot studies of integrated models of service delivery for HIV, hypertension and diabetes have demonstrated that they are feasible and acceptable among patients and care providers. This study assessed multi-stakeholders' perspectives of the delivery and receipt of integrated care in Tanzania.

METHODS

A qualitative process evaluation was conducted in Dar es Salaam region of Tanzania where the integrated service delivery model was implemented from July to November 2021. In-depth interviews were held with seven key informants at the national, regional and district levels, eight healthcare providers, two researchers working at the integrated clinic and forty patients benefiting from integrated services at a large hospital. Three focus group discussions were held with community leaders and residents of the hospital's catchment area, and clinic level observations were conducted. Thematic analysis was conducted followed by the use of Bronfenbrenner's ecological model to identify factors pertinent to sustaining and scaling up of the integrated model.

RESULTS

Participants of the study at all levels were aware of the increased prevalence of NCDs specifically for hypertension and diabetes and were concerned about the trend of increasing co-morbid conditions among people living with HIV (PLHIV). The integrated service delivery model was positively perceived by stakeholders because of its multiple benefits for both patients and the healthcare system. These include stigma and discrimination reduction, improved quality of care, efficient use of limited resources, cost and time saving, reduced duplication of services and fostering of early detection for undiagnosed conditions. The organisation of the clinic was critical in increased satisfaction. Several challenges were observed, which included costs for NCD services relative to free care for HIV and inconsistent availability of NCD medications.

CONCLUSION

Stakeholders reported numerous benefits of the integrated service delivery model that are fundamental in improving the health of many Tanzanians living with NCDs and HIV. These benefits highlight the need for policy and decision-makers to sustain and expand the integrated service delivery model as a solution to many challenges facing the health system especially at the primary care level.

Integrated management of HIV, diabetes, and hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa (INTE-AFRICA): a pragmatic cluster-randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, health-care provision for chronic conditions is fragmented. The aim of this study was to determine whether integrated management of HIV, diabetes, and hypertension led to improved rates of retention in care for people with diabetes or hypertension without adversely affecting rates of HIV viral suppression among people with HIV when compared to standard vertical care in medium and large health facilities in Uganda and Tanzania.

METHODS

In INTE-AFRICA, a pragmatic cluster-randomised, controlled trial, we randomly allocated primary health-care facilities in Uganda and Tanzania to provide either integrated care or standard care for HIV, diabetes, and hypertension. Random allocation (1:1) was stratified by location, infrastructure level, and by country, with a permuted block randomisation method. In the integrated care group, participants with HIV, diabetes, or hypertension were managed by the same health-care workers, used the same pharmacy, had similarly designed medical records, shared the same registration and waiting areas, and had an integrated laboratory service. In the standard care group, these services were delivered vertically for each condition. Patients were eligible to join the trial if they were living with confirmed HIV, diabetes, or hypertension, were aged 18 years or older, were living within the catchment population area of the health facility, and were likely to remain in the catchment population for 6 months. The coprimary outcomes, retention in care (attending a clinic within the last 6 months of study follow-up) for participants with either diabetes or hypertension (tested for superiority) and plasma viral load suppression for those with HIV (>1000 copies per mL; tested for non-inferiority, 10% margin), were analysed using generalised estimating equations in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ISCRTN 43896688.

FINDINGS

Between June 30, 2020, and April 1, 2021 we randomly allocated 32 health facilities (17 in Uganda and 15 in Tanzania) with 7028 eligible participants to the integrated care or the standard care groups. Among participants with diabetes, hypertension, or both, 2298 (75·8%) of 3032 were female and 734 (24·2%) of 3032 were male. Of participants with HIV alone, 2365 (70·3%) of 3365 were female and 1000 (29·7%) of 3365 were male. Follow-up lasted for 12 months. Among participants with diabetes, hypertension, or both, the proportion alive and retained in care at study end was 1254 (89·0%) of 1409 in integrated care and 1457 (89·8%) of 1623 in standard care. The risk differences were -0·65% (95% CI -5·76 to 4·46; p=0·80) unadjusted and -0·60% (-5·46 to 4·26; p=0·81) adjusted. Among participants with HIV, the proportion who had a plasma viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL was 1412 (97·0%) of 1456 in integrated care and 1451 (97·3%) of 1491 in standard care. The differences were -0·37% (one-sided 95% CI -1·99 to 1·26; pnon-inferiority<0·0001 unadjusted) and -0·36% (-1·99 to 1·28; pnon-inferiority<0·0001 adjusted).

INTERPRETATION

In sub-Saharan Africa, integrated chronic care services could achieve a high standard of care for people with diabetes or hypertension without adversely affecting outcomes for people with HIV.

FUNDING

European Union Horizon 2020 and Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases.

Management of Depression in Chronic Care Patients Using a Task-Sharing Approach in a Real-World Primary Health Care Setting in South Africa: Outcomes of a Cohort Study

Depressive symptoms are common in South African primary care patients with chronic medical conditions, but are usually unrecognised and untreated. This study evaluated an integrated, task-sharing collaborative approach to management of depression comorbid with chronic diseases in primary health care (PHC) patients in a real-world setting. Existing HIV clinic counsellors provided a manualised depression counselling intervention with stepped-up referral pathways to PHC doctors for initiation of anti-depressant medication and/ or referral to specialist mental health services. Using a comparative group cohort design, adult PHC patients in 10 PHC facilities were screened with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 with those scoring above the validated cut-off enrolled. PHC nurses independently assessed, diagnosed and referred patients. Referral for treatment was independently associated with substantial improvements in depression symptoms three months later. The study confirms the viability of task-shared stepped-up collaborative care for depression treatment using co-located counselling in underserved real-world PHC settings.

FLT3-directed UniCAR T-cell therapy of acute myeloid leukaemia

Adaptor chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy offers solutions for improved safety and antigen escape, which represent main obstacles for the clinical translation of CAR T-cell therapy in myeloid malignancies. The adaptor CAR T-cell platform 'UniCAR' is currently under early clinical investigation. Recently, the first proof of concept of a well-tolerated, rapidly switchable, CD123-directed UniCAR T-cell product treating patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) was reported. Relapsed and refractory AML is prone to high plasticity under therapy pressure targeting one single tumour antigen. Thus, targeting of multiple tumour antigens seems to be required to achieve durable anti-tumour responses, underlining the need to further design alternative AML-specific target modules (TM) for the UniCAR platform. We here present the preclinical development of a novel FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3)-directed UniCAR T-cell therapy, which is highly effective for in vitro killing of both AML cell lines and primary AML samples. Furthermore, we show in vivo functionality in a murine xenograft model. PET analyses further demonstrate a short serum half-life of FLT3 TMs, which will enable a rapid on/off switch of UniCAR T cells. Overall, the presented preclinical data encourage the further development and clinical translation of FLT3-specific UniCAR T cells for the therapy of AML.

Factors associated with the consultation of GPs among adults aged ≥16 years: an analysis of data from the Health Survey for England 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the factors associated with demands for general practice care is crucial for policy decision makers to appropriately allocate healthcare resources.

AIM

To investigate factors associated with the frequency of GP consultations.

DESIGN & SETTING

Data on 8086 adults aged ≥16 years was obtained from cross-sectional Health Survey for England (HSE) 2019.

METHOD

The primary outcome was the frequency of consultations of a GP in the last 12 months. Multivariable ordered logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between GP consultations and a range of sociodemographic and health-related factors.

RESULTS

Frequency of GP consultations for all reasons was higher among females (odds ratio [OR] 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.64 to 2.01), those aged ≥75 years (OR 1.48, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.92), ethnic minority populations (Black: OR 1.42, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.84; Asian: OR 1.53, 95% CI = 1.25 to 1.87), lowest household income (OR 1.53, 95% CI = 1.29 to 1.83), adults with long-lasting illnesses (OR 3.78, 95% CI = 3.38 to 4.22), former smokers (OR 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.22), being overweight (OR 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.29), and being obese (OR 1.32, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.50). Predictors of consultations for physical health problems were similar to predictors of consultations for any health problems. However, younger age was associated with more consultations for mental health problems, or a combination of mental and physical health problems.

CONCLUSION

The higher frequency of consultation of GPs is associated with female sex, older age, ethnic minority populations, being socioeconomically disadvantaged, existence of lasting illnesses, smoking, being overweight, and being obese. Older age is associated with increased consultations for physical health problems, but associated with reduced consultations for mental health or a combination of mental and physical health problems.

Protocol: Implementation evaluation of a combination intervention for sustainable blood pressure control in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (IMPACT BP): A three-arm, unblinded, parallel group individually randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the primary risk factor for stroke and heart disease, which are leading causes of death in South Africa. Despite the availability of treatments, there is an implementation gap in how best to deliver hypertension care in this resource-limited region.

METHODS

We describe a three-arm parallel group individually randomized control trial to evaluate the effectiveness and implementation of a technology-supported, community-based intervention to improve blood pressure control among people with hypertension in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The study will compare three strategies: 1) standard of care (SOC arm) clinic-based management, 2) home-based blood pressure management supported by community blood pressure monitors (CBPM arm) and a mobile health application to record blood pressure readings and enable clinic-based nurses to remotely manage care, and 3) an identical strategy to the CBPM arm, except that participants will use a cellular blood pressure cuff, which automatically transmits completed readings over cellular networks directly to clinic-based nurses (eCBPM+ arm). The primary effectiveness outcome is change in blood pressure from enrollment to 6 months. The secondary effectiveness outcome is the proportion of participants with blood pressure control at 6 months. Acceptability, fidelity, sustainability, and cost-effectiveness of the interventions will also be assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

In this protocol, we report the development of interventions in partnership with the South Africa Department of Health, a description of the technology-enhanced interventions, and details of the study design so that our intervention and evaluation can inform similar efforts in rural, resource-limited settings.

PROTOCOL

Version 3 November 9th, 2022.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov Trial Registration: NCT05492955 SAHPRA Trial Number: N20211201. SANCTR Number: DOH-27-112,022-4895.

Implementing integrated care clinics for HIV-infection, diabetes and hypertension in Uganda (INTE-AFRICA): process evaluation of a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a dual burden of chronic human immunodeficiency virus and non-communicable diseases. A pragmatic parallel arm cluster randomised trial (INTE-AFRICA) scaled up 'one-stop' integrated care clinics for HIV-infection, diabetes and hypertension at selected facilities in Uganda. These clinics operated integrated health education and concurrent management of HIV, hypertension and diabetes. A process evaluation (PE) aimed to explore the experiences, attitudes and practices of a wide variety of stakeholders during implementation and to develop an understanding of the impact of broader structural and contextual factors on the process of service integration.

METHODS

The PE was conducted in one integrated care clinic, and consisted of 48 in-depth interviews with stakeholders (patients, healthcare providers, policy-makers, international organisation, and clinical researchers); three focus group discussions with community leaders and members (n = 15); and 8 h of clinic-based observation. An inductive analytical approach collected and analysed the data using the Empirical Phenomenological Psychological five-step method. Bronfenbrenner's ecological framework was subsequently used to conceptualise integrated care across multiple contextual levels (macro, meso, micro).

RESULTS

Four main themes emerged; Implementing the integrated care model within healthcare facilities enhances detection of NCDs and comprehensive co-morbid care; Challenges of NCD drug supply chains; HIV stigma reduction over time, and Health education talks as a mechanism for change. Positive aspects of integrated care centred on the avoidance of duplication of care processes; increased capacity for screening, diagnosis and treatment of previously undiagnosed comorbid conditions; and broadening of skills of health workers to manage multiple conditions. Patients were motivated to continue receiving integrated care, despite frequent NCD drug stock-outs; and development of peer initiatives to purchase NCD drugs. Initial concerns about potential disruption of HIV care were overcome, leading to staff motivation to continue delivering integrated care.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing integrated care has the potential to sustainably reduce duplication of services, improve retention in care and treatment adherence for co/multi-morbid patients, encourage knowledge-sharing between patients and providers, and reduce HIV stigma.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN43896688.

A health systems intervention to strengthen the integration of tuberculosis and COVID-19 detection: Outcomes of a quasi-experimental study in a high burden tuberculosis district in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

The adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) detection have been well documented. Despite shared symptoms, guidance for integrated screening for TBand COVID-19 are limited, and opportunities for health systems strengthening curtailed by lockdowns. We partnered with a high TB burden district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to co-develop an integrated approach to assessing COVID-19 and TB, delivered using online learning and quality improvement, and evaluated its performance on TB testing and detection.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed methods study incorporating a quasi-experimental design and process evaluation in 10 intervention and 18 control clinics. Nurses in all 28 clinics were all provided access to a four-session online course to integrate TB and COVID-19 screening and testing, which was augmented with some webinar and in-person support at the 10 intervention clinics. We estimated the effects of exposure to this additional support using interrupted time series Poisson regression mixed models. Process evaluation data comprised interviews before and after the intervention. Thematic coding was employed to provide explanations for effects of the intervention.

RESULTS

Clinic-level support at intervention clinics was associated with a markedly higher uptake (177 nurses from 10 intervention clinics vs. 19 from 18 control clinics). Lack of familiarity with online learning, and a preference for group learning hindered the transition from face-to-face to online learning. Even so, any exposure to training was initially associated with higher rates of GeneXpert testing (adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.15) and higher positive TB diagnosis (IRR 1.38, 1.11-1.71).

CONCLUSIONS

These results add to the knowledge base regarding the effectiveness of interventions to strengthen TB case detection during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings support the feasibility of a shift to online learning approaches in low-resource settings with appropriate support and suggest that even low-intensity interventions are capable of activating nurses to integrate existing disease control priorities during pandemic conditions.

"After all, we are all sick": multi-stakeholder understanding of stigma associated with integrated management of HIV, diabetes and hypertension at selected government clinics in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Integrated care is increasingly used to manage chronic conditions. In Uganda, the integration of HIV, diabetes and hypertension care has been piloted, to leverage the advantages of well facilitated and established HIV health care provision structures. This qualitative study aimed to explore HIV stigma dynamics whilst investigating multi-stakeholder perceptions and experiences of providing and receiving integrated management of HIV, diabetes and hypertension at selected government clinics in Central Uganda.  METHODS: We adopted a qualitative-observational design. Participants were purposively selected. In-depth interviews were conducted with patients and with health care providers, clinical researchers, policy makers, and representatives from international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Focus group discussions were conducted with community members and leaders. Clinical procedures in the integrated care clinic were observed. Data were managed using Nvivo 12 and analyzed thematically.

RESULTS

Triangulated findings revealed diverse multi-stakeholder perceptions around HIV related stigma. Integrated care reduced the frequency with which patients with combinations of HIV, diabetes, hypertension visited health facilities, reduced the associated treatment costs, increased interpersonal relationships among patients and healthcare providers, and increased the capacity of health care providers to manage multiple chronic conditions. Integration reduced stigma through creating opportunities for health education, which allayed patient fears and increased their resolve to enroll for and adhere to treatment. Patients also had an opportunity to offer and receive psycho-social support and coupled with the support they received from healthcare worker. This strengthened patient-patient and provider-patient relationships, which are building blocks of service integration and of HIV stigma reduction. Although the model significantly reduced stigma, it did not eradicate service level challenges and societal discrimination among HIV patients.

CONCLUSION

The study reveals that, in a low resource setting like Uganda, integration of HIV, diabetes and hypertension care can improve patient experiences of care for multiple chronic conditions, and that integrated clinics may reduce HIV related stigma.

HeAlth System StrEngThening in four sub-Saharan African countries (ASSET) to achieve high-quality, evidence-informed surgical, maternal and newborn, and primary care: protocol for pre-implementation phase studies

To achieve universal health coverage, health system strengthening (HSS) is required to support the of delivery of high-quality care. The aim of the National Institute for Health Research Global Research Unit on HeAlth System StrEngThening in Sub-Saharan Africa (ASSET) is to address this need in a four-year programme, with three healthcare platforms involving eight work-packages. Key to effective health system strengthening (HSS) is the pre-implementation phase of research where efforts focus on applying participatory methods to embed the research programme within the existing health system. To conceptualise the approach, we provide an overview of the key methods applied across work-package to address this important phase of research conducted between 2017 and 2021.Work-packages are being undertaken in publicly funded health systems in rural and urban areas in Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Stakeholders including patients and their caregivers, community representatives, clinicians, managers, administrators, and policymakers are the main research participants.In each work-package, initial activities engage stakeholders and build relationships to ensure co-production and ownership of HSSIs. A mixed-methods approach is then applied to understand and address determinants of high-quality care delivery. Methods such as situation analysis, cross-sectional surveys, interviews and focus group discussions are adopted to each work-package aim and context. At the end of the pre-implementation phase, findings are disseminated using focus group discussions and participatory Theory of Change workshops where stakeholders from each work package use findings to select HSSIs and develop a programme theory.ASSET places a strong emphasis of the pre-implementation phase in order to provide an in-depth and systematic diagnosis of the existing heath system functioning, needs for strengthening and stakeholder engagement. This common approach will inform the design and evaluation of the HSSIs to increase effectiveness across work packages and contexts, to better understand what works, for whom, and how.

Women living with HIV, diabetes and/or hypertension multi-morbidity in Uganda: a qualitative exploration of experiences accessing an integrated care service

Purpose

Women experience a triple burden of ill-health spanning non-communicable diseases (NCDs), reproductive and maternal health conditions and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst there is research on integrated service experiences of women living with HIV (WLHIV) and cancer, little is known regarding those of WLHIV, diabetes and/or hypertension when accessing integrated care. Our research responds to this gap.

Design/methodology/approach

The INTE-AFRICA project conducted a pragmatic parallel arm cluster randomised trial to scale up and evaluate “one-stop” integrated care clinics for HIV-infection, diabetes and hypertension at selected primary care centres in Uganda. A qualitative process evaluation explored and documented patient experiences of integrated care for HIV, diabetes and/or hypertension. In-depth interviews were conducted using a phenomenological approach with six WLHIV with diabetes and/or hypertension accessing a “one stop” clinic. Thematic analysis of narratives revealed five themes: lay health knowledge and alternative medicine, community stigma, experiences of integrated care, navigating personal challenges and health service constraints.

Findings

WLHIV described patient pathways navigating HIV and diabetes/hypertension, with caregiving responsibilities, poverty, travel time and cost and personal ill health impacting on their ability to adhere to multi-morbid integrated treatment. Health service barriers to optimal integrated care included unreliable drug supply for diabetes/hypertension and HIV linked stigma. Comprehensive integrated care is recommended to further consider gender sensitive aspects of care.

Originality/value

This study whilst small scale, provides a unique insight into the lived experience of WLHIV navigating care for HIV and diabetes and/or hypertension, and how a “one stop” integrated care clinic can support them (and their children) in their treatment journeys.

Later is not necessarily better: limitations of survival analysis in studies of long-term drug treatment of psychiatric conditions

Survival analysis is routinely used to assess differences between groups in relapse prevention and treatment discontinuation studies involving people with long-term psychiatric conditions. The actual outcome in survival analysis is 'time to event', yet, in the mental health field, there has been little consideration of whether a temporary delay to relapse is clinically relevant in a condition that can last for decades. Moreover, in psychiatric drug trials, a pattern of elevated early relapses following randomisation to placebo or no treatment is common. This may be the result of the withdrawal of previous treatment leading to physiological withdrawal effects, which may be mistaken for relapse, or genuine relapse precipitated by the process of withdrawal. Such withdrawal effects typically produce converging survival curves eventually. They inevitably lead to differences in time to relapse, even when there is little or no difference in the cumulative risk of relapse at final follow-up. Therefore, statistical tests based on survival analyses can be misleading because they obscure these withdrawal effects. We illustrate these difficulties in a trial of antipsychotic reduction versus maintenance, and a trial of prophylactic esketamine in people with treatment-resistant depression. Both illustrate withdrawal-related effects that underline the importance of long-term follow-up and question the use of tests based on time to event. Further discussion of the most relevant outcome and appropriate approach to analysis, and research on patient and carer preferences is important to inform the design of future trials and interpretation of existing ones.

"I have travelled along on my own"-Experiences of seeking help for serious non-COVID health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

During COVID-19 the UK general population has been given strong messages to stay at home. Concurrently unprecedented changes occurred in healthcare access with moves to remote/triage systems. Data have shown that the number of people accessing healthcare services decreased and there are significant concerns that the pandemic has negatively affected help-seeking for serious conditions, with potentially increased morbidity and mortality. An understanding of help-seeking is urgently needed to inform public campaigns. We aimed to develop an in-depth, theory-based understanding of how, when and why people sought help for potentially serious symptoms (e.g., related to major cardiovascular events or cancer diagnoses) during the pandemic, and what influenced their decisions.

DESIGN

Qualitative semi-structured interviews.

METHODS

We interviewed 25 adults recruited through a targeted social media campaign. Interviews were conducted via telephone or online platform. Our topic guide was informed by the Model of Pathways to Treatment and the Capability-Opportunity-Motivation-Behaviour model.

RESULTS

The analysis identified four main themes: Delay in recognition, Holding on to concerns, Weighing it up and Long-term impacts. Multiple societal and environmental factors influenced participants' help-seeking and motivation, capability and opportunity to seek help, with long-term impacts on well-being and future help-seeking.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need for clear guidance about pathways to raise concerns about symptoms and gain advice while usual healthcare contacts are paused or stopped. Recommendations for future interventions to support help-seeking during pandemics include clearer messaging, co-produced with end-users, on when, where and how to seek help.

Prospective study of factors associated with asthma attack recurrence (ATTACK) in children from three Ecuadorian cities during COVID-19: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Asthma is a growing health problem in children in marginalised urban settings in low-income and middle-income countries. Asthma attacks are an important cause of emergency care attendance and long-term morbidity. We designed a prospective study, the Asthma Attacks study, to identify factors associated with recurrence of asthma attacks (or exacerbations) among children and adolescents attending emergency care in three Ecuadorian cities.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Prospective cohort study designed to identify risk factors associated with recurrence of asthma attacks in 450 children and adolescents aged 5-17 years attending emergency care in public hospitals in three Ecuadorian cities (Quito, Cuenca and Portoviejo). The primary outcome will be rate of asthma attack recurrence during up to 12 months of follow-up. Data are being collected at baseline and during follow-up by questionnaire: sociodemographic data, asthma history and management (baseline only); recurrence of asthma symptoms and attacks (monthly); economic costs of asthma to family; Asthma Control Test; Pediatric Asthma Quality of life Questionnaire; and Newcastle Asthma Knowledge Questionnaire (baseline only). In addition, the following are being measured at baseline and during follow-up: lung function and reversibility by spirometry before and after salbutamol; fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO); and presence of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in blood. Recruitment started in 2019 but because of severe disruption to emergency services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, eligibility criteria were modified to include asthmatic children with uncontrolled symptoms and registered with collaborating hospitals. Data will be analysed using logistic regression and survival analyses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the Hospital General Docente de Calderon (CEISH-HGDC 2019-001) and Ecuadorian Ministry of Public Health (MSP-CGDES-2021-0041-O N° 096-2021). The study results will be disseminated through presentations at conferences and to key stakeholder groups including policy-makers, postgraduate theses, peer-review publications and a study website. Participants gave informed consent to participate in the study before taking part.

Effect of a brief motivational interview and text message intervention targeting tobacco smoking, alcohol use and medication adherence to improve tuberculosis treatment outcomes in adult patients with tuberculosis: a multicentre, randomised controlled trial of the ProLife programme in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effectiveness of a complex behavioural intervention, ProLife, on tuberculosis (TB) treatment success, medication adherence, alcohol use and tobacco smoking.

DESIGN

Multicentre, individual, randomised controlled trial where participants were assigned (1:1) to the ProLife intervention or usual care.

SETTING

27 primary care clinics in South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

574 adults starting treatment for drug-sensitive pulmonary TB who smoked tobacco or reported harmful/hazardous alcohol use.

INTERVENTIONS

The intervention, delivered by lay health workers (LHWs), consisted of three brief motivational interviewing (MI) sessions, augmented with short message service (SMS) messages, targeting medication adherence, alcohol use and tobacco smoking.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was successful versus unsuccessful TB treatment at 6-9 months, from TB records. Secondary outcomes were biochemically confirmed sustained smoking cessation, reduction in the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) score, improved TB and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and ART initiation, each measured at 3 and 6 months by questionnaires; and cure rates in patients who had bacteriology-confirmed TB at baseline, from TB records.

RESULTS

Between 15 November 2018 and 31 August 2019, 574 participants were randomised to receive either the intervention (n=283) or usual care (n=291). TB treatment success rates did not differ significantly between intervention (67.8%) and control (70.1%; OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.64% to 1.27%). There was no evidence of an effect at 3 and 6 months, respectively, on continuous smoking abstinence (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.14; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.63), TB medication adherence (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.52 to 2.87; OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.26 to 3.07), taking ART (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.65; OR 2.05, 95% CI 0.80 to 5.27) or AUDIT scores (mean score difference 0.55, 95% CI -1.01 to 2.11; -0.04, 95% CI -2.0 to 1.91) and adjusting for baseline values. Cure rates were not significantly higher (OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Simultaneous targeting of multiple health risk behaviours with MI and SMS using LHWs may not be an effective approach to improve TB outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN62728852.

Integrating diabetes, hypertension and HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa: a Delphi consensus study on international best practice

Background

Although HIV continues to have a high prevalence among adults in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCD) such as diabetes and hypertension is increasing rapidly. There is an urgent need to expand the capacity of healthcare systems in SSA to provide NCD services and scale up existing chronic care management pathways. The aim of this study was to identify key components, outcomes, and best practice in integrated service provision for the prevention, identification and treatment of HIV, hypertension and diabetes.

Methods

An international, multi stakeholder e-Delphi consensus study was conducted over two successive rounds. In Round 1, 24 participants were asked to score 27 statements, under the headings ‘Service Provision’ and ‘Benefits of Integration’, by importance. In Round 2, the 16 participants who completed Round 1 were shown the distribution of scores from other participants along with the score that they attributed to an outcome and were asked to reflect on the score they gave, based on the scores of the other participants and then to rescore if they wished to. Nine participants completed Round 2.

Results

Based on the Round 1 ranking, 19 of the 27 outcomes met the 70% threshold for consensus. Four additional outcomes suggested by participants in Round 1 were added to Round 2, and upon review by participants, 22 of the 31 outcomes met the consensus threshold. The five items participants scored from 7 to 9 in both rounds as essential for effective integrated healthcare delivery of health services for chronic conditions were improved data collection and surveillance of NCDs among people living with HIV to inform integrated NCD/HIV programme management, strengthened drug procurement systems, availability of equipment and access to relevant blood tests, health education for all chronic conditions, and enhanced continuity of care for patients with multimorbidity.

Conclusions

This study highlights the outcomes which may form key components of future complex interventions to define a model of integrated healthcare delivery for diabetes, hypertension and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

Integrating HIV, diabetes and hypertension services in Africa: study protocol for a cluster randomised trial in Tanzania and Uganda

INTRODUCTION

HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are well funded but programmes for diabetes and hypertension are weak with only a small proportion of patients in regular care. Healthcare provision is organised from stand-alone clinics. In this cluster randomised trial, we are evaluating a concept of integrated care for people with HIV infection, diabetes or hypertension from a single point of care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

32 primary care health facilities in Dar es Salaam and Kampala regions were randomised to either integrated or standard vertical care. In the integrated care arm, services are organised from a single clinic where patients with either HIV infection, diabetes or hypertension are managed by the same clinical and counselling teams. They use the same pharmacy and laboratory and have the same style of patient records. Standard care involves separate pathways, that is, separate clinics, waiting and counselling areas, a separate pharmacy and separate medical records. The trial has two primary endpoints: retention in care of people with hypertension or diabetes and plasma viral load suppression. Recruitment is expected to take 6 months and follow-up is for 12 months. With 100 participants enrolled in each facility with diabetes or hypertension, the trial will provide 90% power to detect an absolute difference in retention of 15% between the study arms (at the 5% two-sided significance level). If 100 participants with HIV infection are also enrolled in each facility, we will have 90% power to show non-inferiority in virological suppression to a delta=10% margin (ie, that the upper limit of the one-sided 95% CI of the difference between the two arms will not exceed 10%). To allow for lost to follow-up, the trial will enrol over 220 persons per facility. This is the only trial of its kind evaluating the concept of a single integrated clinic for chronic conditions in Africa.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol has been approved by ethics committee of The AIDS Support Organisation, National Institute of Medical Research and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. Dissemination of findings will be done through journal publications and meetings involving study participants, healthcare providers and other stakeholders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN43896688.

Patient and health provider costs of integrated HIV, diabetes and hypertension ambulatory health services in low-income settings - an empirical socio-economic cohort study in Tanzania and Uganda

BACKGROUND

Integration of health services might be an efficient strategy for managing multiple chronic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa, considering the scope of treatments and synergies in service delivery. Proven to promote compliance, integration may lead to increased economies-of-scale. However, evidence on the socio-economic consequences of integration for providers and patients is lacking. We assessed the clinical resource use, staff time, relative service efficiency and overall societal costs associated with integrating HIV, diabetes and hypertension services in single one-stop clinics where persons with one or more of these conditions were managed.

METHODS

2273 participants living with HIV infection, diabetes, or hypertension or combinations of these conditions were enrolled in 10 primary health facilities in Tanzania and Uganda and followed-up for up to 12 months. We collected data on resources used from all participants and on out-of-pocket costs in a sub-sample of 1531 participants, while a facility-level costing study was conducted at each facility. Health worker time per participant was assessed in a time-motion morbidity-stratified study among 228 participants. The mean health service cost per month and out-of-pocket costs per participant visit were calculated in 2020 US$ prices. Nested bootstrapping from these samples accounted for uncertainties. A data envelopment approach was used to benchmark the efficiency of the integrated services. Last, we estimated the budgetary consequences of integration, based on prevalence-based projections until 2025, for both country populations.

RESULTS

Their average retention after 1 year service follow-up was 1911/2273 (84.1%). Five hundred and eighty-two of 2273 (25.6%) participants had two or all three chronic conditions and 1691/2273 (74.4%) had a single condition. During the study, 84/2239 (3.8%) participants acquired a second or third condition. The mean service costs per month of managing two conditions in a single participant were $39.11 (95% CI 33.99, 44.33), $32.18 (95% CI 30.35, 34.07) and $22.65 (95% CI 21.86, 23.43) for the combinations of HIV and diabetes and of HIV and hypertension, diabetes and hypertension, respectively. These costs were 34.4% (95% CI 17.9%, 41.9%) lower as compared to managing any two conditions separately in two different participants. The cost of managing an individual with all three conditions was 48.8% (95% CI 42.1%, 55.3%) lower as compared to managing these conditions separately. Out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure per participant per visit was $7.33 (95% CI 3.70, 15.86). This constituted 23.4% (95% CI 9.9, 54.3) of the total monthly service expenditure per patient and 11.7% (95% CI 7.3, 22.1) of their individual total household income. The integrated clinics' mean efficiency benchmark score was 0.86 (range 0.30-1.00) suggesting undercapacity that could serve more participants without compromising quality of care. The estimated budgetary consequences of managing multi-morbidity in these types of integrated clinics is likely to increase by 21.5% (range 19.2-23.4%) in the next 5 years, including substantial savings of 21.6% on the provision of integrated care for vulnerable patients with multi-morbidities.

CONCLUSION

Integration of HIV services with diabetes and hypertension control reduces both health service and household costs, substantially. It is likely an efficient and equitable way to address the increasing burden of financially vulnerable households among Africa's ageing populations. Additional economic evidence is needed from longer-term larger-scale implementation studies to compare extended integrated care packages directly simultaneously with evidence on sustained clinical outcomes.

Implementation and Scale-Up of Integrated Depression Care in South Africa: An Observational Implementation Research Protocol

BACKGROUND

People with chronic general medical conditions who have comorbid depression experience poorer health outcomes. This problem has received scant attention in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of the ongoing study reported here is to refine and promote the scale-up of an evidence-based task-sharing collaborative care model, the Mental Health Integration (MhINT) program, to treat patients with comorbid depression and chronic disease in primary health care settings in South Africa.

METHODS

Adopting a learning-health-systems approach, this study uses an onsite, iterative observational implementation science design. Stage 1 comprises assessment of the original MhINT model under real-world conditions in an urban subdistrict in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to inform refinement of the model and its implementation strategies. Stage 2 comprises assessment of the refined model across urban, semiurban, and rural contexts. In both stages, population-level effects are assessed by using the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) evaluation framework with various sources of data, including secondary data collection and a patient cohort study (N=550). The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research is used to understand contextual determinants of implementation success involving quantitative and qualitative interviews (stage 1, N=78; stage 2, N=282).

RESULTS

The study results will help refine intervention components and implementation strategies to enable scale-up of the MhINT model for depression in South Africa.

NEXT STEPS

Next steps include strengthening ongoing engagements with policy makers and managers, providing technical support for implementation, and building the capacity of policy makers and managers in implementation science to promote wider dissemination and sustainment of the intervention.

Effects of the Norfolk diabetes prevention lifestyle intervention (NDPS) on glycaemic control in screen-detected type 2 diabetes: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this trial was to test if the Norfolk Diabetes Prevention Study (NDPS) lifestyle intervention, recently shown to reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes in high-risk groups, also improved glycaemic control in people with newly diagnosed screen-detected type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We screened 12,778 participants at high risk of type 2 diabetes using a fasting plasma glucose and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c). People with screen-detected type 2 diabetes were randomised in a parallel, three-arm, controlled trial with up to 46 months of follow-up, with a control arm (CON), a group-based lifestyle intervention of 6 core and up to 15 maintenance sessions (INT), or the same intervention with additional support from volunteers with type 2 diabetes trained to co-deliver the lifestyle intervention (INT-DPM). The pre-specified primary end point was mean HbA1c compared between groups at 12 months.

RESULTS

We randomised 432 participants (CON 149; INT 142; INT-DPM 141) with a mean (SD) age of 63.5 (10.0) years, body mass index (BMI) of 32.4 (6.4) kg/m2, and HbA1c of 52.5 (10.2) mmol/mol. The primary outcome of mean HbA1c at 12 months (CON 48.5 (9.1) mmol/mol, INT 46.5 (8.1) mmol/mol, and INT-DPM 45.6 (6.0) mmol/mol) was significantly lower in the INT-DPM arm compared to CON (adjusted difference -2.57 mmol/mol; 95% CI -4.5, -0.6; p = 0.007) but not significantly different between the INT-DPM and INT arms (-0.55 mmol/mol; 95% CI -2.46, 1.35; p = 0.57), or INT vs CON arms (-2.14 mmol/mol; 95% CI -4.33, 0.05; p = 0.07). Subgroup analyses showed the intervention had greater effect in participants < 65 years old (difference in mean HbA1c compared to CON -4.76 mmol/mol; 95% CI -7.75, -1.78 mmol/mol) than in older participants (-0.46 mmol/mol; 95% CI -2.67, 1.75; interaction p = 0.02). This effect was most significant in the INT-DPM arm (-6.01 mmol/mol; 95% CI -9.56, -2.46 age < 65 years old and -0.22 mmol/mol; 95% CI -2.7, 2.25; aged > 65 years old; p = 0.007). The use of oral hypoglycaemic medication was associated with a significantly lower mean HbA1c but only within the INT-DPM arm compared to CON (-7.0 mmol/mol; 95% CI -11.5, -2.5; p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

The NDPS lifestyle intervention significantly improved glycaemic control after 12 months in people with screen-detected type 2 diabetes when supported by trained peer mentors with type 2 diabetes, particularly those receiving oral hypoglycaemics and those under 65 years old. The effect size was modest, however, and not sustained at 24 months.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN34805606 . Retrospectively registered 14.4.16.

Identifying contextual determinants of problems in tuberculosis care provision in South Africa: a theory-generating case study

BACKGROUND

Despite progress towards End TB Strategy targets for reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and deaths by 2035, South Africa remains among the top ten high-burden tuberculosis countries globally. A large challenge lies in how policies to improve detection, diagnosis and treatment completion interact with social and structural drivers of TB. Detailed understanding and theoretical development of the contextual determinants of problems in TB care is required for developing effective interventions. This article reports findings from the pre-implementation phase of a study of TB care in South Africa, contributing to HeAlth System StrEngThening in Sub-Saharan Africa (ASSET)-a five-year research programme developing and evaluating health system strengthening interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. The study aimed to develop hypothetical propositions regarding contextual determinants of problems in TB care to inform intervention development to reduce TB deaths and incidence whilst ensuring the delivery of quality integrated, person-centred care.

METHODS

Theory-building case study design using the Context and Implementation of Complex Interventions (CICI) framework to identify contextual determinants of problems in TB care. Between February and November 2019, we used mixed methods in six public-sector primary healthcare facilities and one public-sector hospital serving impoverished urban and rural communities in the Amajuba District of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. Qualitative data included stakeholder interviews, observations and documentary analysis. Quantitative data included routine data on sputum testing and TB deaths. Data were inductively analysed and mapped onto the seven CICI contextual domains.

RESULTS

Delayed diagnosis was caused by interactions between fragmented healthcare provision; limited resources; verticalised care; poor TB screening, sputum collection and record-keeping. One nurse responsible for TB care, with limited integration of TB with other conditions, and policy focused on treatment adherence contributed to staff stress and limited consideration of patients' psychosocial needs. Patients were lost to follow up due to discontinuity of information, poverty, employment restrictions and limited support for treatment side-effects. Infection control measures appeared to be compromised by efforts to integrate care.

CONCLUSIONS

Delayed diagnosis, limited psychosocial support for patients and staff, patients lost to follow-up and inadequate infection control are caused by an interaction between multiple interacting contextual determinants. TB policy needs to resolve tensions between treating TB as epidemic and individually-experienced social problem, supporting interventions which strengthen case detection, infection control and treatment, and also promote person-centred support for healthcare professionals and patients.

Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on hospital admissions and mortality in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of lockdown during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on daily all-cause admissions, and by age and diagnosis subgroups, and the odds of all-cause mortality in a hospital in rural KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

DESIGN

Observational cohort.

SETTING

Referral hospital for 17 primary care clinics in uMkhanyakude District.

PARTICIPANTS

Data collected by the Africa Health Research Institute on all admissions from 1 January to 20 October: 5848 patients contributed to 6173 admissions.

EXPOSURE

Five levels of national lockdown in South Africa from 27 March 2020, with restrictions decreasing from levels 5 to 1, respectively.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes and trends in daily all-cause admissions and risk of in-hospital mortality before and at each stage of lockdown, estimated by Poisson and logistic interrupted time series regression, with stratification for age, sex and diagnosis.

RESULTS

Daily admissions decreased during level 5 lockdown for infants (incidence rate ratio (IRR) compared with prelockdown 0.63, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.90), children aged 1-5 years old (IRR 0.43, 95% CI 028 to 0.65) and respiratory diagnoses (IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.90). From level 4 to level 3, total admissions increased (IRR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.28), as well as for men >19 years (IRR 1.50, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.92) and respiratory diagnoses (IRR 4.26, 95% CI 2.36 to 7.70). Among patients admitted to hospital, the odds of death decreased during level 5 compared with prelockdown (adjusted OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.83) and then increased in later stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Level 5 lockdown is likely to have prevented the most vulnerable population, children under 5 years and those more severely ill from accessing hospital care in rural KZN, as reflected by the drop in admissions and odds of mortality. Subsequent increases in admissions and in odds of death in the hospital could be due to improved and delayed access to hospital as restrictions were eased.

Lifestyle Intervention With or Without Lay Volunteers to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes in People With Impaired Fasting Glucose and/or Nondiabetic Hyperglycemia: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Nearly half of the older adult population has diabetes or a high-risk intermediate glycemic category, but we still lack trial evidence for effective type 2 diabetes prevention interventions in most of the current high-risk glycemic categories.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a group-based lifestyle intervention (with or without trained volunteers with type 2 diabetes) reduced the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes in populations with a high-risk glycemic category.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention Study was a parallel, 3-arm, group-based, randomized clinical trial conducted with up to 46 months of follow-up from August 2011 to January 2019 at 135 primary care practices and 8 intervention sites in the East of England. We identified 141 973 people at increased risk of type 2 diabetes, screened 12 778 (9.0%), and randomized those with a high-risk glycemic category, which was either an elevated fasting plasma glucose level alone (≥110 and <126 mg/dL [to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0555]) or an elevated glycated hemoglobin level (≥6.0% to <6.5%; nondiabetic hyperglycemia) with an elevated fasting plasma glucose level (≥100 to <110 mg/dL).

INTERVENTIONS

A control arm receiving usual care (CON), a theory-based lifestyle intervention arm of 6 core and up to 15 maintenance sessions (INT), or the same intervention with support from diabetes prevention mentors, trained volunteers with type 2 diabetes (INT-DPM).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Type 2 diabetes incidence between arms.

RESULTS

In this study, 1028 participants were randomized (INT, 424 [41.2%] [166 women (39.2%)]; INT-DPM, 426 [41.4%] [147 women (34.5%)]; CON, 178 [17.3%] [70 women (%39.3)]) between January 1, 2011, and February 24, 2017. The mean (SD) age was 65.3 (10.0) years, mean (SD) body mass index 31.2 (5) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), and mean (SD) follow-up 24.7 (13.4) months. A total of 156 participants progressed to type 2 diabetes, which comprised 39 of 171 receiving CON (22.8%), 55 of 403 receiving INT (13.7%), and 62 of 414 receiving INT-DPM (15.0%). There was no significant difference between the intervention arms in the primary outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 0.77-1.7; P = .51), but each intervention arm had significantly lower odds of type 2 diabetes (INT: OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.85; P = .01; INT-DPM: OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39-0.96; P = .033; combined: OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.87; P = .01). The effect size was similar in all glycemic, age, and social deprivation groups, and intervention costs per participant were low at $153 (£122).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The Norfolk Diabetes Prevention lifestyle intervention reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes in current high-risk glycemic categories. Enhancing the intervention with DPM did not further reduce diabetes risk. These translatable results are relevant for current diabetes prevention efforts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry Identifier: ISRCTN34805606.

[Weaning in a Pandemic Situation - A Position Paper]

The logistical and infectious peculiarities and requirements challenge the intensive care treatment teams aiming at a successful liberation of patients from long-term mechanical ventilation. Especially in the pandemic, it is therefore important to use all potentials for weaning and decannulation, respectively, in patients with prolonged weaning.Weaning centers represent units of intensive medical care with a particular specialization in prolonged weaning. They are an integral part of a continuous care concept for these patients. A systematic weaning concept in the pandemic includes structural, personnel, equipment, infectiological and hygienic issues. In addition to the S2k guideline "Prolonged weaning" this position paper hightlights a new classification in prolonged weaning and organizational structures required in the future for the challenging pandemic situation. Category A patients with high weaning potential require a structured respiratory weaning in specialized weaning units, so as to get the greatest possible chance to realize successful weaning. Patients in category B with low or currently nonexistent weaning potential should receive a weaning attempt after an intermediate phase of further stabilization in an out-of-hospital ventilator unit. Category C patients with no weaning potential require a permanent out-of-hospital care, alternatively finishing mechanical ventilation with palliative support.Finally, under perspective in the position paper the following conceivable networks and registers in the future are presented: 1. locally organized regional networks of certified weaning centers, 2. a central, nationwide register of weaning capacities accordingly the already existing DIVI register and 3. registration of patients in difficult or prolonged weaning.

Addressing the quality of paediatric primary care: health worker and caregiver perspectives from a process evaluation of PACK child, a health systems intervention in South Africa

Background

The WHO’s Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) has resulted in progress in addressing infant and child mortality. However, unmet needs of children continue to present a burden upon primary healthcare services. The capacity of services and quality of care offered require greater support to address these needs by extending and integrating curative and preventive care for the child with a long-term health condition and the child older than 5, not prioritised in IMCI. In response to these needs, the PACK Child intervention was developed and piloted in October 2017–February 2019 in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. We report health worker and caregiver perspectives of the existing paediatric primary care context as well as the extent to which PACK Child functions to address perceived problems within the current local healthcare system.

Methods

This process evaluation involved 52 individual interviews with caregivers, 10 focus group discussions with health workers, 3 individual interviews with trainers, and 31 training observations. Interviews and focus groups explored participants’ experiences of paediatric primary care, perspectives of the PACK Child intervention, and tensions with implementation in each context. Inductive thematic analysis was used to analyse verbatim interview and discussion transcripts.

Results

Perspectives of caregivers and health workers suggest an institutionalised focus of paediatric primary care to treating children’s symptoms as acute episodic conditions. Health workers’ reports imply that this focus is perpetuated by interactions between contextual features such as, IMCI policy, documentation-driven consultations, overcrowded clinics and verticalised care. Whilst these contextual conditions constrained health workers’ ability to translate skills developed within PACK Child training into practice, the intervention initiated expanded care of children 0–13 years and those with long-term health conditions, enhanced professional competence, improved teamwork and referrals, streamlined triaging, and facilitated probing for psychosocial risk.

Conclusion

PACK Child appears to be catalysing paediatric primary care to address the broader needs of children, including long-term health conditions and the identification of psychosocial problems. However, to maximise this requires primary care to re-orientate from risk minimisation on the day of attendance towards a view of the child beyond the day of presentation at clinics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-021-02512-7.

Diabetes, employment and behavioural risk factors in China: Marginal structural models versus fixed effects models

We use longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, covering the years 1997-2011, to estimate the effect of a diabetes diagnosis on an economic outcome (employment probabilities) and behavioural risk factors (alcohol consumption, smoking cessation, body mass index (BMI), physical activity and hypertension) for men and women. We apply two complementary statistical techniques-marginal structural models (MSMs) and fixed effects (FE) models-to deal with confounding. Both methods suggest, despite their different underlying assumptions, similar patterns that indicate important differences between men and women. Employment probabilities decline substantially after the diagnosis for women (-12.4 (MSM) and -15.5 (FE) percentage points), but do not change significantly for men. In particular, the MSM estimates indicate an increase in hypertension (13 percentage points) and a decrease in physical activity for women, while men have small and statistically insignificant changes in these outcomes. For BMI, the MSM results indicate statistically significant changes for men (-.76), but not for women, while the FE estimates show similar reductions for men and women (-.80 and -.73 respectively). Men also reduce their alcohol consumption, but do not cease to smoke. For women these risk factors have a prevalence close to zero to begin with, though women seem to still reduce alcohol consumption somewhat. These results suggest important gender differences in the impact of diabetes in China. To narrow these inequities policies supporting women to reduce diabetes related risk factors are likely important.

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China

Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270-0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423-0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.

IL-23 promotes T-cell mediated cardiac inflammation but protects the heart from fibrosis

Introduction

Cardiac inflammation varies widely and, in some cases, triggers autoimmune myocarditis and further inflammatory dilated cardiomyopathy (iDCM) and heart failure. In children, myocarditis leads to cardiomyopathy in almost half of affected individuals and up to 20% of sudden death cases in young adults have been reported to be due to myocarditis. IL-12 and IL-23 belong to the same family of cytokines known to mediate inflammatory conditions. Both regulate the differentiation of T cells: IL-12 promotes towards IFN-gamma-producing Th-1 cells, while IL-23 induces IL-17-producing Th-17 cells. Heart-reactive CD4+Th17 cells play a leading role in the development of myocarditis, however, literature reports excessiveness of IL-23 in Th17-derived IL-17 production. Therapeutic strategies blocking IL-23 were suggested as a promising approach, though the specific role of IL-23 in pathogenesis is unclear and the long-term perspectives stay elusive.

Purpose

We aim to explore the role IL-23 compared to IL-12 in the manifestation of cardiac autoimmune myocarditis.

Methodology

We use dendritic cell (DC) model of experimental autoimmune myocarditis in IL-12 and IL-23-deficient mice. Mice were injected with bone marrow-derived in vitro activated and loaded with cardiac-specific peptide DCs. This model mimics natural processes taking place during heart inflammation and provides a unique method to address the role of DCs-derived cytokines. Cardiac inflammation, as well as remodeling and heart function, were analysed at the acute and chronic stages of the disease.

Results

Surprisingly, all mice developed acute myocarditis, though wt receiving IL-23−/−bmDCs showed a twofold decrease in heart-infiltrating T cells and lower numbers of Th17 population. Further decrease of heart-infiltrating T cells appeared upon total systemic IL-23 deficiency. In comparison to IL-12, directly inducing differentiation of IFN-gamma–producing Th1, IL-23 cannot induce Th17 differentiation. None of the two cytokines affect proliferation, though, IL-23 activates T cell migratory potential and increases T cell migration by twofold. At the same time, deficiency of IL-23-production by bmDCs leads to lower migration of T cells. We also show an involvement of RhoA, and the other Rho GTPases, in the mechanism of migration as blocking revoke the IL-23 effect on T cells. Moreover, we further observed more fibrosis and worse heart functioning in IL-23−/−, but not IL-12−/− mice at the chronic stage what underlines the importance of IL-23-dependent T cell trafficking in the resolution of the acute stage of autoimmune myocarditis.

Conclusion

Our observations underline IL-23 as an important cytokine responsible for T cell trafficking and resolution of the inflammation in autoimmune myocarditis. Therapeutic approaches involving inflammatory cytokine targeting are a promising clinical perspective though IL-23 deficiency might lead to increased cardiac remodeling and iDCM progression.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The Swiss National Science Foundation

Predictors of receiving a diagnosis, referral and treatment of depression in people on antiretroviral therapy in South African primary care: a secondary analysis of data from a randomised trial

Objective

To describe the receipt of a diagnosis, referral and treatment for depression in people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), with depressive symptoms and attending primary care clinics in South Africa, and investigate factors associated with receiving these components of care.

Methods

This is a secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial of an intervention intended to improve detection and treatment of depression in primary care patients receiving ART. In this analysis, we combined cross‐sectional and longitudinal data from the intervention and control arms. Using regression models and adjusting for intra‐cluster correlation of outcomes, we investigated associations between socioeconomic characteristics, depressive symptoms, stress, disability and stigma, and receipt of a diagnosis, referral and treatment for depression.

Results

Of 2002 participants enrolled, 18% reported a previous diagnosis of depression by a healthcare worker and 10% reported having received counselling from a specialist mental health worker. Diagnosis, referral and counselling during the follow‐up period were appropriately targeted, being independently more frequent in participants with higher enrolment scores for depressive symptoms, stress or disability. Participants with higher stigma scores at enrolment were independently less likely to receive counselling. Severe socio‐economic deprivation was common but was not associated with treatment.

Conclusion

While the receipt of a diagnosis, referral and treatment for depression were uncommon, they seemed to be appropriately targeted. Socio‐economic deprivation was not associated with treatment.

Strengthening integration of chronic care in Africa: protocol for the qualitative process evaluation of integrated HIV, diabetes and hypertension care in a cluster randomised controlled trial in Tanzania and Uganda

INTRODUCTION

In sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), particularly diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension, has increased rapidly in recent years, although HIV infection remains a leading cause of death among young-middle-aged adults. Health service coverage for NCDs remains very low in contrast to HIV, despite the increasing prevalence of comorbidity of NCDs with HIV. There is an urgent need to expand healthcare capacity to provide integrated services to address these chronic conditions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol describes procedures for a qualitative process evaluation of INTE-AFRICA, a cluster randomised trial comparing integrated health service provision for HIV infection, DM and hypertension, to the current stand-alone vertical care. Interviews, focus group discussions and observations of consultations and other care processes in two clinics (in Tanzania, Uganda) will be used to explore the experiences of stakeholders. These stakeholders will include health service users, policy-makers, healthcare providers, community leaders and members, researchers, non-governmental and international organisations. The exploration will be carried out during the implementation of the project, alongside an understanding of the impact of broader structural and contextual factors.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was granted by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (UK), the National Institute of Medical Research (Tanzania) and TASO Research Ethics Committee (Uganda) in 2020. The evaluation will provide the opportunity to document the implementation of integration over several timepoints (6, 12 and 18 months) and refine integrated service provision prior to scale up. This synergistic approach to evaluate, understand and respond will support service integration and inform monitoring, policy and practice development efforts to involve and educate communities in Tanzania and Uganda. It will create a model of care and a platform of good practices and lessons learnt for other countries implementing integrated and decentralised community health services.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN43896688; Pre-results.

Bridging the mental health treatment gap: effects of a collaborative care intervention (matrix support) in the detection and treatment of mental disorders in a Brazilian city

Objective

To analyse temporal trends in diagnosis and treatment of mental disorders in primary care following implementation of a collaborative care intervention (matrix support).

Design

Dynamic cohort design with retrospective time-series analysis. Structured secondary data on medical visits to general practitioners of all study clinics were extracted from the municipal electronic records database. Annual changes in the odds of mental disorders diagnoses and antidepressants prescriptions were estimated by multiple logistic regression at visit and patient-year levels with diagnoses or prescriptions as outcomes. Annual changes during two distinct stages of the intervention (stage 1 when it was restricted to mental health (2005–2009), and stage 2 when it was expanded to other areas (2010–2015)) were compared by adding year–period interaction terms to each model.

Setting

49 primary care clinics in the city of Florianópolis, Brazil.

Participants

All adults attending primary care clinics of the study setting between 2005 and 2015.

Results

3 131 983 visits representing 322 100 patients were analysed. At visit level, the odds of mental disorder diagnosis increased by 13% per year during stage 1 (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.14, p<0.001) and decreased by 5% thereafter (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.95, p<0.001). The odds of incident mental disorder diagnoses decreased by 1% per year during stage 1 (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00, p=0.012) and decreased by 7% per year during stage 2 (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.93, p<0.001). The odds of antidepressant prescriptions in patients with a mental disorder diagnosis increased by 7% per year during stage 1 (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.20, p<0.001); this was driven by selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor prescriptions which increased 14% per year during stage 1 (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.18, p<0.001) and 9% during stage 2 (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.10, p<0.001). The odds of incident antidepressant prescriptions did not increase during stage 1 (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.02, p=0.665) and increased by 3% during stage 2 (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.04, p<0.001). Changes per year were all significantly greater during stage 1 than stage 2 (p values for interaction terms <0.05), except for antidepressant prescriptions during visits (p=0.172).

Conclusion

The matrix support intervention may increase diagnosis and treatment of mental disorders when inter-professional collaboration is adequately supported. Competing demands to the primary care teams can subsequently reduce these effects. Future studies should assess clinical outcomes and identify active components and factors associated with successful implementation.

THU0553 A HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE USE OF COLOUR DOPPLER ULTRASONOGRAPHY AS THE PRIMARY DIAGNOSTIC MODALITY IN PATIENTS WITH SUSPECTED GIANT CELL ARTERITIS

Background:

EULAR has recommended ultrasonography (US) as first imaging modality for diagnosis of Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA)1. For patients with a high pre-test probability who have a negative scan, the recommendation is to use another diagnostic modality like temporal artery biopsy (TAB) to make a diagnosis1. We know that a fast-track pathway incorporating US, results in better clinical outcomes2; but there are little data on the health-economics of this approach. Since 2017, we have used ultrasonography as the primary diagnostic modality for suspected GCA. In patients with a high pre-test probability with a negative ultrasonography, we perform a temporal artery biopsy.

Objectives:

To compare the cost of investigating GCA using first-line US and second-line TAB the use of TAB only. To compare the cost per definite diagnosis of GCA.

Methods:

Number of cases from 2007-2009 and 2017-2019 were calculated by the number of TAB performed and number of referrals to hospital GCA clinic, respectively. Costs of the procedure were calculated as per the nationally agreed tariff by the United Kingdom National Health Service. For ease of comparison, we used the 2018/19 tariff (£1284/TAB; £51 for US)

Results:

In 2007-2009, 162 cases were referred to clinic and had a TAB, of which 86 were positive. No cases had US. The 2018/19 corrected cost was £208008; the cost per positive diagnosis was £2418.70 (Table 1).

In 2017-2019, 419 patients were referred to the GCA clinic, 416 of whom had US for diagnosis. 3 individuals had a TAB as the first diagnostic modality and 66 others were referred for a TAB because of a high pre-test probability and negative US. The 2018/19 corrected cost of this pathway was £109812 and the cost per positive diagnosis was £773.32 (Table 1).

Table 1.

Numbers of cases investigated for suspected GCA by TAB or US and the costs corrected to 2018/19 UK NHS tariff.

YearsNo of referralsNo of TABNo of USNo of patients with GCATotal costCost of making 1 positive diagnosis2007-09162162086£208008£2418.702017-1941969416142£109812£773.32

If all cases in 2017-2019 had a TAB for suspected GCA, the 2018/19 corrected cost would have been £537996. The estimated 2018/19 corrected savings in our center was £142728/year. The estimated 2018/19 corrected savings per definite diagnosis of GCA has dropped by £1645.37 (Table 1).

Conclusion:

The EULAR recommendation of using first-line US for diagnosis of GCA followed by a TAB in cases with uncertain diagnosis after US, is highly cost-effective in the UK, resulting in cost savings of >£140K per year.

References:

[1]Dejaco C, et al. Ann Rheum Dis. 2018 May;77(5):636-643.

[2]Diamantopoulos AP, et al. Rheumatology (Oxford). 2016 Jan;55(1):66-70.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

Addressing the quality and scope of paediatric primary care in South Africa: evaluating contextual impacts of the introduction of the Practical Approach to Care Kit for children (PACK Child)

Background

Despite significant reductions in mortality, preventable and treatable conditions remain leading causes of death and illness in children in South Africa. The PACK Child intervention, comprising clinical decision support tool (guide), training strategy and health systems strengthening components, was developed to expand on WHO’s Integrated Management of Childhood Illness programme, extending care of children under 5 years to those aged 0–13 years, those with chronic conditions needing regular follow-up, integration of curative and preventive measures and routine care of the well child. In 2017–2018, PACK Child was piloted in 10 primary healthcare facilities in the Western Cape Province. Here we report findings from an investigation into the contextual features of South African primary care that shaped how clinicians delivered the PACK Child intervention within clinical consultations.

Methods

Process evaluation using linguistic ethnographic methodology which provides analytical tools for investigating human behaviour, and the shifting meaning of talk and text within context. Methods included semi-structured interviews, focus groups, ethnographic observation, audio-recorded consultations and documentary analysis. Analysis focused on how mapped contextual features structured clinician-caregiver interactions.

Results

Primary healthcare facilities demonstrated an institutionalised orientation to minimising risk upheld by provincial documentation, providing curative episodic care to children presenting with acute symptoms, and preventive care including immunisations, feeding and growth monitoring, all in children 5 years or younger. Children with chronic illnesses such as asthma rarely receive routine care. These contextual features constrained the ability of clinicians to use the PACK Child guide to facilitate diagnosis of long-term conditions, elicit and manage psychosocial issues, and navigate use of the guide alongside provincial documentation.

Conclusion

Our findings provide evidence that PACK Child is catalysing a transition to an approach that strikes a balance between assessing and minimising risk on the day of acute presentation and a larger remit of care for children over time. However, optimising success of the intervention requires reviewing priorities for paediatric care which will facilitate enhanced skills, knowledge and deployment of clinical staff to better address acute illnesses and long-term health conditions of children of all ages, as well as complex psychosocial issues surrounding the child.

[Responsibilities of Weaning Centers during the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak - Recommendations for the Assignment of ICU Capacities in COVID-19 Patients as shown by the Berlin-Brandenburg POST-SAVE-Model]

Die enorme Zunahme von Patienten mit schwerer respiratorischer Insuffizienz aufgrund der COVID19-Pandemie erfordert einen systematischen Ansatz zur Optimierung der Betreuung von beatmeten Patienten. Ein standardisierter Algorithmus namens „SAVE“ wurde in Berlin entwickelt, um Patienten mit COVID-19-Infektion, die eine invasive Beatmung benötigen, zu lenken. Um Bettenkapazitäten auf den Intensivstationen sicherzustellen, muss eine konstante Patientenentlassung gewährleistet sein. Ein strukturierter Entlassungsprozess der Patienten nach der Akutbehandlung ist dringend erforderlich.

In einem nächsten Schritt haben wir einen Triage-Algorithmus entwickelt, um Patienten auf SAVE-Intensivstationen zu identifizieren, die das Potenzial haben, von der Beatmung entwöhnt zu werden und in dafür spezialisierte Einrichtungen zu verlegen. Dieser Prozess ist das POST-SAVE-Konzept.

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Algorithmen dargestellt, einschließlich der Verwendung einer standardisierten digitalen Datenbank, der Verwendung geschulter Lotsen zur Erleichterung der Kommunikation zwischen SAVE-Intensivstationen und Weaningeinheiten und der Etablierung eines prospektiven Datenregisters, um Patienten dauerhaft hinsichtlich ihres Weaningpotenzials reevaluieren zu können.

Comorbidities between tuberculosis and common mental disorders: a scoping review of epidemiological patterns and person-centred care interventions from low-to-middle income and BRICS countries

Background

There is increasing evidence that the substantial global burden of disease for tuberculosis unfolds in concert with dimensions of common mental disorders. Person-centred care holds much promise to ameliorate these comorbidities in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs) and emerging economies. Towards this end, this paper aims to review 1) the nature and extent of tuberculosis and common mental disorder comorbidity and 2) person-centred tuberculosis care in low-to-middle income countries and emerging economies.

Main text

A scoping review of 100 articles was conducted of English-language studies published from 2000 to 2019 in peer-reviewed and grey literature, using established guidelines, for each of the study objectives. Four broad tuberculosis/mental disorder comorbidities were described in the literature, namely alcohol use and tuberculosis, depression and tuberculosis, anxiety and tuberculosis, and general mental health and tuberculosis. Rates of comorbidity varied widely across countries for depression, anxiety, alcohol use and general mental health. Alcohol use and tuberculosis were significantly related, especially in the context of poverty. The initial tuberculosis diagnostic episode had substantial socio-psychological effects on service users. While men tended to report higher rates of alcohol use and treatment default, women in general had worse mental health outcomes. Older age and a history of mental illness were also associated with pronounced tuberculosis and mental disorder comorbidity. Person-centred tuberculosis care interventions were almost absent, with only one study from Nepal identified.

Conclusions

There is an emerging body of evidence describing the nature and extent of tuberculosis and mental disorders comorbidity in low-to-middle income countries. Despite the potential of person-centred interventions, evidence is limited. This review highlights a pronounced need to address psychosocial comorbidities with tuberculosis in LMICs, where models of person-centred tuberculosis care in routine care platforms may yield promising outcomes.

[Nocardiosis as a Differential Diagnosis of Pulmonary Epitheloid Cell Granulomas]

A 47-year-old man presented with fever, weight loss and pulmonary consolidations and cavitation in the x-ray of the thorax. The comprehensive diagnostics resulted pulmonary epitholoid cell granulomas, therefore an immunosuppressive therapy was applied on suspicion of sarcoidosis. Progressivly the pulmonary infiltration increased and cerebral and abdominal abscesses were determined with microbiological detection of Nocardia farcinica. Despite antibiotic therapy, the patient died in a septic shock with multiple organ failure.Nocardiosis is a rare granulomatous bacterial infectious disease. Risk factors include immunosuppression and structural lung diseases. Characteristic is an abscess formation that can occur in any organ, while pulmonary onset is common.The case demonstrates the importance of considering rare differential diagnoses in the detection of pulmonary epithelioid granulomas.

Prevalence and health effects of communicable and non-communicable disease comorbidity in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To describe changes in prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, HIV and tuberculosis, and prevalence of comorbidity, and to investigate associations between each condition, and combinations of conditions, with self-reported general health and hospital admission.

METHODS

This study used data from a longitudinal population-based HIV and health surveillance cohort, conducted by the Africa Health Research Institute in Umkhanyakude district of rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

RESULTS

Prevalence of hypertension, HIV and diabetes increased from 2009 to 2015, and prevalence of tuberculosis decreased. 81% of the 47 334 participants were female; hypertension and diabetes were the commonest conditions in people over age 50, whereas HIV was most common in those younger than 50 years. Comorbidity of communicable and non-communicable conditions was commonest in 40- to 60-year-olds. The adjusted odd ratios (OR) for better self-reported general health with multimorbidity were 0.53 (95% CI 0.51-0.56), 0.29 (95% CI 0.27-0.29), 0.25 (95% CI 0.21-0.37) and 0.21 (95% CI 0.12-0.37) for one, two, three and four conditions, respectively, vs. no conditions. Tuberculosis was most strongly and inversely associated with better general health (OR 0.34 (0.31-0.37) and most strongly associated with hospital admission (OR 3.26 (2.32-2.99)).

CONCLUSION

The high prevalence of communicable and non-communicable conditions in this rural South African population is giving rise to a burden of multimorbidity, as increased access to antiretroviral treatment has reduced mortality in people with HIV. Healthcare systems must adapt by working towards integrated primary care for HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases.

Modification of the equine gastrointestinal microbiota by Jerusalem artichoke meal supplementation

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of natural prebiotic active compounds on the microbial composition in different regions of the equine gastrointestinal tract. Twelve adult horses (body weight [bwt] 534 ± 64.5 kg; age 14 ± 7.5 years) were randomly divided into two feeding groups. Six horses received a basal diet consisting of 1.5 kg hay/100 kg bwt x d^-1 and oat grains equal to 1.19 g starch/kg bwt x d^-1, supplemented with Jerusalem artichoke meal providing prebiotic fructooligosaccharides + inulin in a quantity of 0.15 g/kg bwt x d^-1. The remaining horses received a placebo added to the basal diet. The horses were fed for 21 d and euthanized at the end of the feeding period. Digesta samples from different parts of the gastrointestinal tract were taken, DNA extracted and the V1-V2 region of the 16S rRNA gene amplified. Supplementation with the prebiotic increased the relative abundance of Lactobacillus (P < 0.05), with a concurrent reduction of the relative abundance of Streptococcus mainly in the stomach (P < 0.05). In the hindgut, the supplemental prebiotic also increased the relative abundance of Lactobacillus but further reduced the relative abundance of fibrolytic bacteria, specifically the unclassified members of the families Lachnospiraceae (P < 0.05) and Ruminococcaceae. The relative abundance of the genus Ruminococcus increased solely in the caecum and colon transversum. Overall, the addition of the prebiotic significantly increased the diversity in nearly all parts of the gastrointestinal tract (P < 0.05). The feeding of this natural prebiotic compound to horses had an impact on the microbial community in the entire gastrointestinal tract. Furthermore, the effect on the bacterial community in the foregut (especially the stomach) was more pronounced in comparison to the effect in the hindgut. Therefore, the impact on stomach health should be carefully considered.

Does service heterogeneity have an impact on acute hospital length of stay in stroke? A UK-based multicentre prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether stroke patients' acute hospital length of stay (AHLOS) varies between hospitals, over and above case mix differences and to investigate the hospital-level explanatory factors.

DESIGN

A multicentre prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Eight National Health Service acute hospital trusts within the Anglia Stroke & Heart Clinical Network in the East of England, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

The study sample was systematically selected to include all consecutive patients admitted within a month to any of the eight hospitals, diagnosed with stroke by an accredited stroke physician every third month between October 2009 and September 2011.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

AHLOS was defined as the number of days between date of hospital admission and discharge or death, whichever came first. We used a multiple linear regression model to investigate the association between hospital (as a fixed-effect) and AHLOS, adjusting for several important patient covariates, such as age, sex, stroke type, modified Rankin Scale score (mRS), comorbidities and inpatient complications. Exploratory data analysis was used to examine the hospital-level characteristics which may contribute to variance between hospitals. These included hospital type, stroke monthly case volume, service provisions (ie, onsite rehabilitation) and staffing levels.

RESULTS

A total of 2233 stroke admissions (52% female, median age (IQR) 79 (70 to 86) years, 83% ischaemic stroke) were included. The overall median AHLOS (IQR) was 9 (4 to 21) days. After adjusting for patient covariates, AHLOS still differed significantly between hospitals (p<0.001). Furthermore, hospitals with the longest adjusted AHLOS's had predominantly smaller stroke volumes.

CONCLUSIONS

We have clearly demonstrated that AHLOS varies between different hospitals, and that the most important patient-level explanatory variables are discharge mRS, dementia and inpatient complications. We highlight the potential importance of stroke volume in influencing these differences but cannot discount the potential effect of unmeasured confounders.