A decision support framework for prediction of avian influenza

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

A predictive decision support system for coronavirus disease 2019 response management and medical logistic planning

Objective

Coronavirus disease 2019 demonstrated the inconsistencies in adequately responding to biological threats on a global scale due to a lack of powerful tools for assessing various factors in the formation of the epidemic situation and its forecasting. Decision support systems have a role in overcoming the challenges in health monitoring systems in light of current or future epidemic outbreaks. This paper focuses on some applied examples of logistic planning, a key service of the Earth Cognitive System for Coronavirus Disease 2019 project, here presented, evidencing the added value of artificial intelligence algorithms towards predictive hypotheses in tackling health emergencies.

Methods

Earth Cognitive System for Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a decision support system designed to support healthcare institutions in monitoring, management and forecasting activities through artificial intelligence, social media analytics, geospatial analysis and satellite imaging. The monitoring, management and prediction of medical equipment logistic needs rely on machine learning to predict the regional risk classification colour codes, the emergency rooms attendances, and the forecast of regional medical supplies, synergically enhancing geospatial and temporal dimensions.

Results

The overall performance of the regional risk colour code classifier yielded a high value of the macro-average F1-score (0.82) and an accuracy of 85%. The prediction of the emergency rooms attendances for the Lazio region yielded a very low root mean square error (<11 patients) and a high positive correlation with the actual values for the major hospitals of the Lazio region which admit about 90% of the region's patients. The prediction of the medicinal purchases for the regions of Lazio and Piemonte has yielded a low root mean squared percentage error of 16%.

Conclusions

Accurate forecasting of the evolution of new cases and drug utilisation enables the resulting excess demand throughout the supply chain to be managed more effectively. Forecasting during a pandemic becomes essential for effective government decision-making, managing supply chain resources, and for informing tough policy decisions.

Strategies for enhancing immunity against avian influenza virus in chickens: A review

Poultry infection with avian influenza viruses (AIV) is a continuous source of concern for poultry production and human health. Uncontrolled infection and transmission of AIV in poultry increases the potential for viral mutation and reassortment, possibly resulting in the emergence of zoonotic viruses. To this end, implementing strategies to disrupt the transmission of AIVs in poultry, including a wide array of traditional and novel methods, is much needed. Vaccination of poultry is a targeted approach to reduce clinical signs and shedding in infected birds. Strategies aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of AIV vaccines are multi-pronged and include methods directed towards eliciting immune responses in poultry. Strategies include producing vaccines of greater immunogenicity via vaccine type and adjuvant application and increasing bird responsiveness to vaccines by modification of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) microbiome and dietary interventions. This review provides an in-depth discussion of recent findings surrounding novel AIV vaccines for poultry, including reverse genetics vaccines, vectors, protein vaccines and virus like particles, highlighting their experimental efficacy among other factors such as safety and potential for use in the field. In addition to the type of vaccine employed, vaccine adjuvants also provide an effective way to enhance AIV vaccine efficacy, therefore, research on different types of vaccine adjuvants and vaccine adjuvant delivery strategies is discussed. Finally, the poultry gastrointestinal microbiome is emerging as an important factor in the effectiveness of prophylactic treatments. In this regard, current findings on the effects of the chicken GIT microbiome on AIV vaccine efficacy are summarized here.

Prediction of COVID-19 Waves Using Social Media and Google Search: A Case Study of the US and Canada

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health worldwide. In this study, we aimed to evaluate several digital data streams as early warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada, the US and their provinces and states. Two types of terms including symptoms and preventive measures were used to filter Twitter and Google Trends data. We visualized and correlated the trends for each source of data against confirmed cases for all provinces and states. Subsequently, we attempted to find anomalies in indicator time-series to understand the lag between the warning signals and real-word outbreak waves. For Canada, we were able to detect a maximum of 83% of initial waves 1 week earlier using Google searches on symptoms. We divided states in the US into two categories: category I if they experienced an initial wave and category II if the states have not experienced the initial wave of the outbreak. For the first category, we found that tweets related to symptoms showed the best prediction performance by predicting 100% of first waves about 2-6 days earlier than other data streams. We were able to only detect up to 6% of second waves in category I. On the other hand, 78% of second waves in states of category II were predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. In addition, we discovered that the most important symptoms in providing early warnings are fever and cough in the US. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread around the world, the work presented here is an initial effort for future COVID-19 outbreaks.

Computational Method for Classification of Avian Influenza A Virus Using DNA Sequence Information and Physicochemical Properties

Accurate and fast characterization of the subtype sequences of Avian influenza A virus (AIAV) hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) depends on expanding diagnostic services and is embedded in molecular epidemiological studies. A new approach for classifying the AIAV sequences of the HA and NA genes into subtypes using DNA sequence data and physicochemical properties is proposed. This method simply requires unaligned, full-length, or partial sequences of HA or NA DNA as input. It allows for quick and highly accurate assignments of HA sequences to subtypes H1–H16 and NA sequences to subtypes N1–N9. For feature extraction, k-gram, discrete wavelet transformation, and multivariate mutual information were used, and different classifiers were trained for prediction. Four different classifiers, Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K nearest neighbor (KNN), and Decision Tree, were compared using our feature selection method. This comparison is based on the 30% dataset separated from the original dataset for testing purposes. Among the four classifiers, Decision Tree was the best, and Precision, Recall, F1 score, and Accuracy were 0.9514, 0.9535, 0.9524, and 0.9571, respectively. Decision Tree had considerable improvements over the other three classifiers using our method. Results show that the proposed feature selection method, when trained with a Decision Tree classifier, gives the best results for accurate prediction of the AIAV subtype.